RB Comparison - Looking Back (1 Viewer)

[Reaper]

Would Jones get the same hype if he went to Denver?

A discussion I had with a buddy about the instant Henry Hype in Denver had me wondering as a Jets fan which back I'd want if I had the choice and I personally found it hard to pick... I tried to recall and wondered what the hype was like coming out of college.... Obviously Jones was MUCH more hyped and a higher pick.

Pro Football Weekly's Joel Buchsbaum was one of the most respected NFL analysts around and that site has made it's past NFL draft content FREE which I find to be a great resource....

IF NOTHING ELSE.. And you don't like the comparison, These are GREAT links....

1999-2002

2003-Present

Here you can find all the pre draft rankings as well as Pre draft talk, Draft grades, times, combine info and more..... A little tough to sort through but, it's there.

Now looking at Jones Vs Henry, and I know things change - Even speed and size.....

Same Age (give or take)

Same Size (Give or take)

Same wear and tear

Henry gets an edge in POWER, probably a little more compact.

Speed - Jones was listed as 4.47 Vs Henry 4.65

I know, neither is considered a breakaway back but, one was definitely considered faster than the other.

You have to give a decided edge to Jones as a Team Leader and voice.

Last year they had similar years and both have moved around and have been up and down with injuries, competition etc....

From PFW site:

RB-FB Travis Henry

(5-9, 225, 4.65 E) Tennessee ** *Now listed as 215 at NFL.com

Notes: High school All-American who was considered by many to be the top prep runner in Florida in 1996. Had knee surgery during fall drills after coming to Tennessee in ’97. Missed the first six games but played in the rest and had two carries for four yards. Played in every game and started five in ’98, carrying 176 times for 970 yards and seven touchdowns and catching four passes for 31 yards. Rushed 125-790-8 and made three receptions for three yards in ’99, when he did not start until the end of the year, when Jamal Lewis was injured. With Lewis hobbled and Henry getting the majority of playing time, he ran for 543 yards and six scores in the last four games. Henry started in 2000 and won All-Southeastern Conference honors after a regular season in which he carried 253-1,314-11 and caught 13-65.

Positives: Top competitor and a real tough warrior. Very determined runner and player with a never-say-die attitude. Short, squat, powerful, low-to-the-ground runner with big and powerful legs and thighs, very strong hips and a low center of power. Is about as tough to tackle as a fire hydrant or a bowling ball rolling down a hill with butcher knives sticking out of it. Has exceptional balance and gains a lot of yards after contact. Does not look that fast, but he breaks some really long runs.

Negatives: Is not as fast and elusive as scouts would like. Was not used a lot in the passing game, and almost all of his catches were on short flips when he was facing the quarterback. May have some problems with blitz pickup.

Summary: Very tough and strong inside runner with a never-say-die attitude, but he is not a top all-around back at this point.

RB THOMAS JONES

(5-9 7/8, 216, 4.47) Virginia ** now listed as 220 at Nfl.com

Notes: High school All-American and Virginia’s top recruit in 1996. Has a younger brother who may be the best back on the Notre Dame team this year. Backed up Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year Tiki Barber as a freshman in ’96, carrying 36 times for 205 yards and three touchdowns and catching four passes for 26 yards. Took over for Barber in ’97 but struggled, rushing 201-692-4 and catching 17-127 and one touchdown. Came into his own in ’98, when he led the ACC in rushing. Carried 238-1,303-13 and caught 28-179-2 that season. Had a tremendous senior year, in which he rushed 334-1,798-16, caught 22-239-1 and won All-America honors. Weight was up to 216 pounds at the Combine, and it looked like a good, solid weight, but Jones did not run because of a minor groin injury.

Positives: Exceptional work ethic and intelligence. Has gotten bigger, stronger and better every year. Quick-darting, north-south runner with very good explosiveness through the hole and good speed. Runs with a low center of gravity and has exceptional balance and body control. Quick-footed and nifty. Can cut and make tacklers miss. Is not a Barry Sanders but can string moves together. Very smart and aware player. Catches the ball nicely and can be used on punt returns because his hands are so sure. Will block. Is goal-oriented. Graduated in three years. Has been durable and dependable.

Negatives: Is not powerful enough in the lower body and hips to break tackles after contact the way Walter Payton did and Emmitt Smith did in his prime and still does to a degree.

Summary: Similar to Smith in a lot of ways, although he does not have as much strength and power to break tackles after contact as Smith had in his prime. But he is a more natural pass catcher than Smith ever was and is a good step faster.

 

[Driver]

Would Jones get the same hype if he went to Denver?

A discussion I had with a buddy about the instant Henry Hype in Denver had me wondering as a Jets fan which back I'd want if I had the choice and I personally found it hard to pick... I tried to recall and wondered what the hype was like coming out of college.... Obviously Jones was MUCH more hyped and a higher pick.

Pro Football Weekly's Joel Buchsbaum was one of the most respected NFL analysts around and that site has made it's past NFL draft content FREE which I find to be a great resource....

IF NOTHING ELSE.. And you don't like the comparison, These are GREAT links....

1999-2002

2003-Present

Here you can find all the pre draft rankings as well as Pre draft talk, Draft grades, times, combine info and more..... A little tough to sort through but, it's there.

Now looking at Jones Vs Henry, and I know things change - Even speed and size.....

Same Age (give or take)

Same Size (Give or take)

Same wear and tear

Henry gets an edge in POWER, probably a little more compact.

Speed - Jones was listed as 4.47 Vs Henry 4.65

I know, neither is considered a breakaway back but, one was definitely considered faster than the other.

You have to give a decided edge to Jones as a Team Leader and voice.

Last year they had similar years and both have moved around and have been up and down with injuries, competition etc....

From PFW site:

RB-FB Travis Henry

(5-9, 225, 4.65 E) Tennessee ** *Now listed as 215 at NFL.com

Notes: High school All-American who was considered by many to be the top prep runner in Florida in 1996. Had knee surgery during fall drills after coming to Tennessee in ’97. Missed the first six games but played in the rest and had two carries for four yards. Played in every game and started five in ’98, carrying 176 times for 970 yards and seven touchdowns and catching four passes for 31 yards. Rushed 125-790-8 and made three receptions for three yards in ’99, when he did not start until the end of the year, when Jamal Lewis was injured. With Lewis hobbled and Henry getting the majority of playing time, he ran for 543 yards and six scores in the last four games. Henry started in 2000 and won All-Southeastern Conference honors after a regular season in which he carried 253-1,314-11 and caught 13-65.

Positives: Top competitor and a real tough warrior. Very determined runner and player with a never-say-die attitude. Short, squat, powerful, low-to-the-ground runner with big and powerful legs and thighs, very strong hips and a low center of power. Is about as tough to tackle as a fire hydrant or a bowling ball rolling down a hill with butcher knives sticking out of it. Has exceptional balance and gains a lot of yards after contact. Does not look that fast, but he breaks some really long runs.

Negatives: Is not as fast and elusive as scouts would like. Was not used a lot in the passing game, and almost all of his catches were on short flips when he was facing the quarterback. May have some problems with blitz pickup.

Summary: Very tough and strong inside runner with a never-say-die attitude, but he is not a top all-around back at this point.

RB THOMAS JONES

(5-9 7/8, 216, 4.47) Virginia ** now listed as 220 at Nfl.com

Notes: High school All-American and Virginia’s top recruit in 1996. Has a younger brother who may be the best back on the Notre Dame team this year. Backed up Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year Tiki Barber as a freshman in ’96, carrying 36 times for 205 yards and three touchdowns and catching four passes for 26 yards. Took over for Barber in ’97 but struggled, rushing 201-692-4 and catching 17-127 and one touchdown. Came into his own in ’98, when he led the ACC in rushing. Carried 238-1,303-13 and caught 28-179-2 that season. Had a tremendous senior year, in which he rushed 334-1,798-16, caught 22-239-1 and won All-America honors. Weight was up to 216 pounds at the Combine, and it looked like a good, solid weight, but Jones did not run because of a minor groin injury.

Positives: Exceptional work ethic and intelligence. Has gotten bigger, stronger and better every year. Quick-darting, north-south runner with very good explosiveness through the hole and good speed. Runs with a low center of gravity and has exceptional balance and body control. Quick-footed and nifty. Can cut and make tacklers miss. Is not a Barry Sanders but can string moves together. Very smart and aware player. Catches the ball nicely and can be used on punt returns because his hands are so sure. Will block. Is goal-oriented. Graduated in three years. Has been durable and dependable.

Negatives: Is not powerful enough in the lower body and hips to break tackles after contact the way Walter Payton did and Emmitt Smith did in his prime and still does to a degree.

Summary: Similar to Smith in a lot of ways, although he does not have as much strength and power to break tackles after contact as Smith had in his prime. But he is a more natural pass catcher than Smith ever was and is a good step faster.

Interesting topic because it is related to both (1) their perceived value as demonstrated by their ADP in redrafts and dynasty, and (2) their true value for the next 2-3 years from a FF perspective. Here's my $.02.Perceived value (ADP) - Henry is obviously significantly higher than TJones right now and is likely to stay there until the 1st game next season -- unless DEN drafts or trades for a high profile RB or MS indicates in TC that Henry will share a good chunk of touches with MBell or someone else -- which I don't think is going to happen. I would think that Henry will be ranked and drafted as RB10-15 by next summer, and Jones will be RB15-20.

True FF value for next 2 years -- This is a more difficult question IMO because it depends on (1) team/situation, (2) opportunity, and (3) productivity. I think Henry definitely has the edge on all 3 factors. DEN > NYJ with respect to RB-friendly offense and FF potential for RBs.

Opportunity - Who has the highest probability of being the featured back? Again, I give the edge to Henry. I think the likelihood that Jones shares touches and TDs with LWashington and CHouston is far higher than Henry sharing as many touches and TDs with another RB in DEN.

Productivity - Henry was RB8 in 2002, RB11 in 2003, and RB22 last year. Jones was RB9 in 2005, RB19 in 2004, and RB21 last year. I give the edge in productivity to Henry with potential for more yds from scrimmage and TDs during the next 2 years.

Another factor is age and accumulated wear and tear. Both will be 29 next season, but Henry has had slightly less wear and tear -- 6 seasons compared to 7 for Jones, and 1321 carries/134 recpts compared to 1349 carries/215 recpts for Jones. Both have had 3 seasons with relatively little workload, so their "effective age" is less than a 29-year old RB who has been the featured back for his entire career.

Summary, I think Henry definitely has higher potential for being a top-10 RB next season, but I think Jones has an equally good chance to be ranked RB10-15 at the end of next season, IMO.

ETA: I think Jones will present much better value than Henry in both redraft leagues and initial dynasty drafts -- mainly because of the DEN/Henry hype. IMO it is unlikely that Henry will fall too far in drafts -- thus guaranteeing a fairly high ADP -- someone in virtually every draft will drink the koolaid and snatch up Henry before he falls too far. But I think Henry has a very good chance of fulfilling his draft position (unless someone drafts him in the top or middle of the 1st round).

Jones OTOH has a substantially higher probability of dropping lower in drafts (3rd round in some drafts?). Therefore, with a good chance of finishing RB10-15, he would present the much better value.

 

[Reaper]

I would think that Henry will be ranked and drafted as RB10-15 by next summer, and Jones will be RB15-20.

From what I was reading around here, Henry was more like 4-8!!!!! While Jones is about right,maybe(12-17) with upside value.I understand what the "Denver Running Game" means to RB's or has meant to RB's and the percieved winfall of fantasy points that Henry has in front of him....But, as Football players, I found it interesting how the measurables - age, height, wear and tear Etc were so close. Just perception but, I imagine Henry will have an easier schedule to go along with his "plug and play" Running team..... Not facing Buffalo, NE and Miami Defenses 6 games helps.You have to give Jones a big edge again in Leadership,who else held that Chicago offense together, Dedication and work ethic as well as off the field situation.As for opportunity / fantasy - This is basically the offense that LT runs in and I'm not sure Shanahan's past guarantees Henry's opportunities to be greater than Jones. Switch Jones to Denver and Henry to the Jets and I say the projections and hype goes with it.

 

[Driver]

I would think that Henry will be ranked and drafted as RB10-15 by next summer, and Jones will be RB15-20.

From what I was reading around here, Henry was more like 4-8!!!!! While Jones is about right,maybe(12-17) with upside value.I understand what the "Denver Running Game" means to RB's or has meant to RB's and the percieved winfall of fantasy points that Henry has in front of him....But, as Football players, I found it interesting how the measurables - age, height, wear and tear Etc were so close. Just perception but, I imagine Henry will have an easier schedule to go along with his "plug and play" Running team..... Not facing Buffalo, NE and Miami Defenses 6 games helps.You have to give Jones a big edge again in Leadership,who else held that Chicago offense together, Dedication and work ethic as well as off the field situation.As for opportunity / fantasy - This is basically the offense that LT runs in and I'm not sure Shanahan's past guarantees Henry's opportunities to be greater than Jones. Switch Jones to Denver and Henry to the Jets and I say the projections and hype goes with it.

Yeah, I agree if Jones went to DEN, then he would have gotten the hype and projections. With Henry in DEN, it's unlikely that he'll drop past the turn in a 12-team league, so at least top-12 ADP and who knows how high someone will take him in any particular draft -- not top-5 but most likely somewhere between 6 and 12.I wouldn't be surprised if TJones drops a bit and possibly a lot, especially in initial dynasty drafts. Would you take Jones in a dynasty before LT, LJ, SJAX, SA, Gore, Portis, Bush, Addai, Maroney, Parker, RBrown, MJD, Westbrook, Rudi, McGahee, or Henry? Not me. So that's 16 RBs. And what about DWilliams, Caddy, ChTaylor, McAllister, AP and Lynch? Now that I look at it more closely, I think TJones' ADP will be RB17-22 in dynasty and somewhat (but not a lot) higher in redrafts -- probably 3rd round for dynasty and late 2nd to middle 3rd in redrafts. Just my $.02.ETA: And what about Benson, LWhite, KJones, JJones, MBarber, MTurner, Edge, LJordan, Taylor, AGreen, BJacobs, JLewis, Norwood and TBell? I'd take TJones before any of them in a redraft, but I'm not so sure in an initial dynasty draft. IMO you can most likely count on 2 solid years of productivity from TJones with NYJ. But with his age of 29 next season, I think I'd take about half of them (before TJones) for dynasty. Based on these additional thoughts, I'd drop TJones' ADP to RB23-28 for dynasty and RB17-22 for redraft (early 3rd round in a redraft). In an initial dynasty draft, TJones may be drafted early 3rd round, but I think he's likely to drop to 4th round and possibly to the 5th/6th turn.

 

[Driver]

Just checked a couple rankings. For dynasty, Bloom has Henry ranked RB24 and TJones as RB25 (as of 3/8/07). Fear & Loathing has Henry ranked RB20 and TJones as RB25 (ranking reflects moves to DEN and NYJ).

I guess every person's ranking depends on their assessment of the prospects of each player and, for dynasty purposes, the value of 2 years of solid production from Henry or Jones -- compared to a younger player's longer career and potential.

With respect to dynasty value (not ADP), I think Henry should be in a tier for RB16-22, and Jones should be in a tier for RB23-30. With the hype and high expectations, Henry will probably be gone before I'm ready to draft him. But I think it's likely that Jones will fall to the bottom of his tier, and if so, drafting him at that position would provide very good value, IMO.