Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I'd like to believe every OC who says he's going to run the ball in his opening press conference but ... ah... We'll see.
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RB David Johnson, Retired (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Exactly. Running the ball to an OC usually means you are in control of the game. Put me on the side of thinking that the Kingsbury experiment will be short and disastrous. I just hope that they are honest with themselves and if they do not intend to fully utilize DJ that they end up trading him this offseason.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
DJ proved he's a special talent. Murray is the real deal and being the dual threat he is......it's just going to open things up for DJ again. Kingsbury is a great coach to pair up with Murray too imo. The offense is going to make a complete turnaround with DJ getting lots of GL opportunities in that improved offense.
I'm all over DJ in the 1st round of fantasy drafts if Murray goes to AZ.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Benjals @BenjalsFF
The #Cardinals ran David Johnson up the middle 156 times in 2018. To put things into perspective, Zeke was 2nd with 89 carries up the middle. Mike McCoy literally did all he could to derail DJ and he was still the RB10. #DraftDJ
9:38 AM - 9 Apr 2019
The #Cardinals ran David Johnson up the middle 156 times in 2018. To put things into perspective, Zeke was 2nd with 89 carries up the middle. Mike McCoy literally did all he could to derail DJ and he was still the RB10. #DraftDJ
9:38 AM - 9 Apr 2019
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Without that information, people were still coming around with his ADP rising by the day. Better get him now while he's still a bargain before he levels out to the mean.
RB David Johnson's ADP journey from March 15 through today
steelers1080
Footballguy
Mike McCoy is the worst OC ever, his usage of DJ was criminal. It wasn't just that he ran him up the middle, but also that the offense was easily predictable by every defense and the AZ o-line was complete crap so DJ had 0 chance.
He could have 100 less carries this year and still perform better than last year if the scheme is better.
steelers1080
Footballguy
He's definitely in my top 5, but also a big risk taking him over Gurley.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I personally feel that Gurley has an arthritic knee that is more serious than what we've been lead to believe.
I think the risk is betting on Gurley's knee.
Disclaimer. I'm not a doctor or in the medical field but I've heard rumors and I believe my own eyes where CJ Anderson stole his thunder in the playoffs and Super Bowl. They did not sit him because he needed a rest. I have to believe those rumors about his knee no matter what smoke is coming out of the Ram chimney I'm not buying it. I would rather bet on a healthy DJ in an offense tailor made for his abilities.
fightingillini
Footballguy
No way it's a big risk. Easily taking DJ over Gurley. Gurley is way too much of an injury risk, LAR is a great team that wants to get back to the Super Bowl.....they are going to manage Gurley's workload lot more closely.
In fact, DJ could easily go back to the elite tier if Murray shows that he's capable.
The only issue with DJ is his age.
He's 27 and will be 28 before the year is over.
He may re-enter the elite tier of players from a production standpoint by year's end, but his age will always be a limiting factor at this point for dynasty purposes.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
True, the time to buy has probably passed. He would have been a great midyear value last season. The one thing in his favor is his workload has been pretty light for a workhorse of his age. His rookie year he wasn't featured until late in the year and he lost the entire season to the wrist injury. He has had no major lower body injuries that could sap his athleticism. I think he could have 3 elite seasons left and at RB, how much more can one ask for? The position changes so quickly- see Gurley.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
He is my target in redraft this year if im stuck down at like pick 10....
fightingillini
Footballguy
I was thinking from a redraft perspective.
I do think he has 2-3 solid productive years left. He's 27 but a young 27 in terms of workload.
Totally agree.
I think he'd be a great buy for a team looking to make a championship run.
He's going on 28, without the workload of a 28 year old running back.
He potentially has 3+ elite seasons left of production.
He carries the stigma of a RB approaching 30, and you'll be able to buy at a lower rate because of it.
From a redraft perspective I'm looking to grab him where possible.
He'll be transitioning to an offense that will fit his skill set and hopefully features him heavily.
Kyler Murray will be keeping defensive lines honest with his ability to run the football.
Right now he's ranked as RB5 in redraft and I'm not upset getting him there.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/teams/arz/arizona-cardinals
David Johnson expects to bounce back to his 2016 form this season.
Johnson's 2,118 yards from scrimmage that season are the most by any player over the past four years. Johnson still harbors hopes of a 1K/1K campaign. "I think I’ll be utilized as both a runner and a receiver," Johnson said. "I think there will be a lot more opportunities to get the ball, a lot more opportunities to score." Johnson is basing his calculations on increased tempo and touches in space. He's counting on the Cardinals running "90-95" plays per game. 2019 is Johnson's age-28 campaign. He is currently the RB4 by ADP in PPR leagues.
SOURCE: azcardinals.com
May 30, 2019, 1:56 PM ET
Good read. But one question about the bolded. RB4? I pretty much thought the top 4 were set in stone as far as I knew of other's thinking. Then I thought there was a good chance Melvin Gordon came in @ RB5.
David Johnson expects to bounce back to his 2016 form this season.
Johnson's 2,118 yards from scrimmage that season are the most by any player over the past four years. Johnson still harbors hopes of a 1K/1K campaign. "I think I’ll be utilized as both a runner and a receiver," Johnson said. "I think there will be a lot more opportunities to get the ball, a lot more opportunities to score." Johnson is basing his calculations on increased tempo and touches in space. He's counting on the Cardinals running "90-95" plays per game. 2019 is Johnson's age-28 campaign. He is currently the RB4 by ADP in PPR leagues.
SOURCE: azcardinals.com
May 30, 2019, 1:56 PM ET
Good read. But one question about the bolded. RB4? I pretty much thought the top 4 were set in stone as far as I knew of other's thinking. Then I thought there was a good chance Melvin Gordon came in @ RB5.
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Evan Silva ✔ @evansilva
David Johnson said he’s focused on his conditioning because #Cardinals want to run “90-95 plays per game.”
Kliff Kingsbury’s Texas Tech offenses averaged most plays per game (82) in Division I over Kingsbury’s 6 years as coach. https://www.azcardinals.com/news/david-johnson-sets-no-conditions-on-his-2019-optimism …
12:53 PM - May 30, 2019
https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/1134155922572492800
David Johnson said he’s focused on his conditioning because #Cardinals want to run “90-95 plays per game.”
Kliff Kingsbury’s Texas Tech offenses averaged most plays per game (82) in Division I over Kingsbury’s 6 years as coach. https://www.azcardinals.com/news/david-johnson-sets-no-conditions-on-his-2019-optimism …
12:53 PM - May 30, 2019
https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/1134155922572492800
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Bump everybody in Arizona.zeeshan2 said:
This is what makes him such a tough evaluation in dynasty for me. I know there have been pretty extensive discussions in the past (here and in FF more generally) about whether age or workload matter more as predictors for RB decline. Everything I've been able to dig up focuses on one or the other variable, but I'm not finding studies that cross tabulate them as variables. If anyone knows of studies that treat both it'd be great to post those here. I'm sure I'm missing something.ty247 said:
If you look at age alone, there seems to be evidence that a significant drop off happens at around 28 or 29 years old. A study at pro football reference emphasizes that age is difficult to extract from workload, but guesses that the pattern for RB decline "is due to regular old aging and is not being unduly accelerated by the particular physical requirements of the job."
When the focus is on carries there are also compelling numbers. The "rule" or "curse" of 370 carries in a single season as a decline predictor was popular for a while in the past. More recently there seems to be a focus on cumulative/career carries. For example, Number Fire suggests 1,800 carries as the career workload number that precipitates a cliff.
For DJ, I agree completely that he's a great buy for a team within a championship window. I think he has a good chance at being the comeback player of the year this season if the offense suits him the way it apparently could. I like Murray a lot. But I feel like his value beyond this season is tied to his role as a receiver, if (when?) age affects his rushing numbers. His rushing numbers have been in decline since 2016, but I think we can suspend judgment on the reasons -- last year in particular was a Jeff-Fisher-like purgatory. Still, I think to recover a 3-year value window in dynasty he has to return to some approximation of his prior rushing form and recover a receiving role similar to what he had with Arians (fwiw I think the combination of targets and WR-type routes he got under Arians were unique to that offense and staff, and that concerns me even if he gets more targets out of the backfield under Kingsbury). I feel like that's a lot that needs to come together, and makes him a sell for a rebuilding team.
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This is what happens when you take too many hits to the head...
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001034041/article/ranking-all-32-rb1s-heading-into-2019-saquon-barkley-no-1
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001034041/article/ranking-all-32-rb1s-heading-into-2019-saquon-barkley-no-1
Steeler
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
In any mocks I've done where I had the #5 spots (recently just got our draft spots) I took Johnson @ 5. Agreed there is a little uneasiness.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
the same problems exist in Az in 2019 that were there last season
bad o-line
bad coaching
rookie QB ( again)
'Air Raid' offense predicated on 4-5 WR sets, with no talent at the WR position outside of an ancient Larry Fitzgerald.
put me in the camp of non-believers in 2019 Cards.
comes this way.
it's going to be an embarassing show for 16 weeks. I hope Klingsbury has a sense of humor like John McKay did with the Bucs.
bad o-line
bad coaching
rookie QB ( again)
'Air Raid' offense predicated on 4-5 WR sets, with no talent at the WR position outside of an ancient Larry Fitzgerald.
put me in the camp of non-believers in 2019 Cards.
comes this way.it's going to be an embarassing show for 16 weeks. I hope Klingsbury has a sense of humor like John McKay did with the Bucs.
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Milkman
Footballguy
They got plenty of WR talent.the same problems exist in Az in 2019 that were there last season
bad o-line
bad coaching
rookie QB ( again)
'Air Raid' offense predicated on 4-5 WR sets, with no talent at the WR position outside of an ancient Larry Fitzgerald.
put me in the camp of non-believers in 2019 Cards.
it's going to be an embarassing show for 16 weeks. I hope Klingsbury has a sense of humor like John McKay did with the Bucs.
Young 8
Footballguy
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steelers1080
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I did this study of RB careers back in 2015. I was looking at age and draft position as the two main variables.
Overall what I found is that RBs are most productive in the first 6 seasons of their career before you see a drop off in performance.
David Johnson was 24 years old as a rookie. Some things I found about the group of players who qualified were
The 24 year old group gets 86 VBD less than the average over their career.
The group really underperforms the average during their first three seasons, barely having above replacement level performance. (not applicable to DJ who did perform well in his first and especially his second season). Then performs well enough in season four and five for RB2 numbers, although still being below the average for those seasons. This group outperforms the average in seasons six (age 29) by 5 VBD and season seven (age 30) by 8 VBD before falling off.
So the higher VBD numbers than average in the age 29 and age 30 season suggests that these RB who entered the league at a older age have a bit more juice left in them compared to the RB who entered the league earlier in the twilight of their careers. This also is confirmed by just looking at RB overall who have their best seasons in the first six years of their careers before falling off. Age 29 would be DJs 6th season and age 30 would be his 7th season.
Incidentally I ranked DJ pretty low as a rookie prospect in part because of this study. Then I changed my mind about shying away from the 24 year old rookies because of DJ but some of them I was interested in such as Devontae Booker did not pan out. Overall the sample of successful fantasy RB from the age 24 group is really small and mostly boosted by the career of Priest Holmes
The workload based studies have mostly debunked themselves is why you do not hear much about that anymore. In fact a player with a high workload is more likely to have a high workload in consecutive seasons than a player who doesn't. I do think too much work in a short time frame can be bad for the player though. For example 2 or three 40 touch games for players like Cadilac Williams and others has led to precipitous drops in performance later on and usually injuries.
The drop off of a player for having 370+ touches is mostly because that is a lot of touches. Ricky WIlliams taking a vacation after two 400 touch seasons is not an example of a player falling off because of that. Although at the time I was a WIlliams owner and I was concerned about it. There was a lot of talk about this back then.
I will always have an open mind as I learn new things all the time, but I dont think the workload or wear on the tires has much validity.
As far as DJs rushing numbers declining as stated in the above article. Well he was injured. Then he played for the worst offense in the NFL last season. Hardly compelling to me.
I don't think running inside has ever been one of DJs strengths. You go back to the beginning of the thread and you will see myself and others talking about that, as well as Greg Cossell making the same observation about him in college. I do think he has improved at this over time and that Arians was smart enough to not ask DJ to do things he wasn't good at, so runs were designed more to the outside with him. Then you have the coaches last year running him up the middle way too much. Square peg meet round hole.
He is a great value in dynasty right now because of ageism and people following such axioms as RB decline at age 30 and looking for an early exit window. I would suggest people buy DJ now and just ride him until the wheels fall off.
The average number of top 12 seasons for a RB (who is ever good enough to have one) is two. So a young RB really doesn't have any better odds of doing that than DJ has anyways.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
Bad Oline, yes. But Kingsbury, Murray and the rookie WRs could be massive upgrades on offense. Or they could flop completely in line with your take. Right now, I'm leaning the former.Tanner9919 said:the same problems exist in Az in 2019 that were there last season
bad o-line
bad coaching
rookie QB ( again)
'Air Raid' offense predicated on 4-5 WR sets, with no talent at the WR position outside of an ancient Larry Fitzgerald.
put me in the camp of non-believers in 2019 Cards.
it's going to be an embarassing show for 16 weeks. I hope Klingsbury has a sense of humor like John McKay did with the Bucs.
Milkman
Footballguy
There's also a middle of the road scenario where he's a decent but not great RB1 -- for whatever reasons, adjustments for Kingsbury/the new system, Murray taking some rushing TDs, only moderate improvement in the line, etc.
For redraft that means he doesn't kill you for taking him for the upside over some of the other players after the elite first round tier.
In dynasty, it means the turns 28 with his last elite season 3 years in the rear view. I agree with @Biabreakable about ageism getting a little out of hand in dynasty, but it's certainly part of the market calculation.
For redraft that means he doesn't kill you for taking him for the upside over some of the other players after the elite first round tier.
In dynasty, it means the turns 28 with his last elite season 3 years in the rear view. I agree with @Biabreakable about ageism getting a little out of hand in dynasty, but it's certainly part of the market calculation.
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