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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
I was a little too. It was an in-person draft, and when I made the pick, everybody kind of seemed relieved that he got picked. Like everyone agrees he deserved to be picked but nobody wanted to be the one who pulled the trigger. Same thing happened when Henry went in round 2.
1st round went:
1. Jefferson
2. Chase
3. CMC
4. Hill
5. Kelce
6. Ekeler
7. Taylor
8. Chubb
9. Bijan
10. Barkley
11. Lamb
12. Kupp
Honestly, the more I watch film on this guy. This is not out of the realm of possiblities. He is absolutely nasty, smart, patient, makes people miss, has great hands, and can take it to the house on any play. The best part is the offense he is in. He has one of the best offensive lines in the league. I can see him getting 4-6 catches a game on average, with 10-12 carries. He seems like a better version of Deandre Swift, which is why they got rid of him.
We all saw Deandre Swift's potential in that offense.
He is my #1 target for value at RB right now. I want him to be my #2 back in all the leagues I am in at the very least, and I am okay with him as my #1 RB if I go heavy WR, which I am definitely considering. I hope he does not blow up in the pre-season so the hype does not get out of control.
I see Gibbs floor as 60 catches. Gibbs will be top 3 WR option. The Lions plan is not to utilize Gibbs as the #1 RB or a goal line back, so I am not sure what the author I'd talking about.
Chaka
Footballguy
Is there more to Fennel's comp? If not it feels like he's pulling stuff out of the south bound end of a north bound mule.
To mention the obvious Harvin averaged 9.5 y/c and 14.5 y/r in college compared to 5.6 & 11.8 for Gibbs. Harvin had a 59:41 rush:rec ratio and Gibbs had a 79:21 ratio. Seems like highly disparate production and utilization.
At the combine Gibbs checked in at 69" & 199 lbs with a 4.36 and Harvin at 71" & 193lbs with a 4.39. Those are the only direct comp measurements available from the combine.
Where is the comp?
ETA: And, by many (most?) measures Harvin had a disappointing NFL career.
Last edited:
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Harvin wasn’t disappointing due to lack of talent or on field performance. His issues were off field / mental health.
Chaka
Footballguy
Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines and nagging hip injury.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Keep in mind that the Vikings had Adrian Peterson at that time otherwise Harvins rushing attempts may have been more than that.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
While a different style of player there were times that Harvin looked just as good as Peterson running the ball.
I think the comparison fits in that Gibbs may not be suited to have 15-20 rushing attempts per game he offers a lot of promise as a WR on top of that and he may be used in a similar fashion as Harvin or Reggie Bush type of offensive weapon rather than as a feature RB like CMC, but who knows? While I think he has a lot of promise to be an excellent player maybe he is capable of more than that as well. I thought CMC would be similar to Bush or Harvin as well.
Chaka
Footballguy
Peterson missed four games in 2011 and Harvin averaged just under 5 rush/game. His max potential carries was, maybe, 80 on a season. His actual high was 52. Even last year, playing in only 14 games Swift had 99 attempts. In one of those games he played only 10 snaps. It would be a big shock if Gibbs didn't his at least 120 attempts.Keep in mind that the Vikings had Adrian Peterson at that time otherwise Harvins rushing attempts may have been more than that.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
While a different style of player there were times that Harvin looked just as good as Peterson running the ball.
I think the comparison fits in that Gibbs may not be suited to have 15-20 rushing attempts per game he offers a lot of promise as a WR on top of that and he may be used in a similar fashion as Harvin or Reggie Bush type of offensive weapon rather than as a feature RB like CMC, but who knows? While I think he has a lot of promise to be an excellent player maybe he is capable of more than that as well. I thought CMC would be similar to Bush or Harvin as well.
I get the "offensive weapon" notion but this isn't New Orleans under Payton, I don't see Ben Johnson running his offense that way. They ran the ball 480 times last year with a talent and/or reliability diminished backfield. Should we expect less this season with better running backs?
AWWTFDIK?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yeah, I don’t expect Gibbs to be used like Harvin really. IMO he will be used somewhere more like Cordarrelle or Kamara. Probably in the middle between those two.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
My Harvin comments were really that any shortcomings of Harvin don’t apply, IMO, to Gibbs. Because Harvin’s major issues were behavioral, not on the football field, and by all accounts Gibbs is a reliable player of high character.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I dont think 120 attempts over 17 games is unreasonable at all. That would be about 7 attempts per game. I could see Gibbs averaging more than that actually.Peterson missed four games in 2011 and Harvin averaged just under 5 rush/game. His max potential carries was, maybe, 80 on a season. His actual high was 52. Even last year, playing in only 14 games Swift had 99 attempts. In one of those games he played only 10 snaps. It would be a big shock if Gibbs didn't his at least 120 attempts.Keep in mind that the Vikings had Adrian Peterson at that time otherwise Harvins rushing attempts may have been more than that.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
While a different style of player there were times that Harvin looked just as good as Peterson running the ball.
I think the comparison fits in that Gibbs may not be suited to have 15-20 rushing attempts per game he offers a lot of promise as a WR on top of that and he may be used in a similar fashion as Harvin or Reggie Bush type of offensive weapon rather than as a feature RB like CMC, but who knows? While I think he has a lot of promise to be an excellent player maybe he is capable of more than that as well. I thought CMC would be similar to Bush or Harvin as well.
I get the "offensive weapon" notion but this isn't New Orleans under Payton, I don't see Ben Johnson running his offense that way. They ran the ball 480 times last year with a talent and/or reliability diminished backfield. Should we expect less this season with better running backs?
AWWTFDIK?
My perception of what Harvin was capable of doing as a runner is more than he actually did.
Where I think there will be similarities is that I think Gibbs will be used a lot as a reciever, moreso than most RB and I think he will be used on jet sweeps and similar plays that you see from WR.
Reggie Bush for example averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over his career while also being targeted a lot in his first few seasons, although his use as a reciever tapered off later on in his career.
Chaka
Footballguy
I think Gibbs simply profiles as a RB with above average receiving ability. I think he'll see a similar split of rush:rec touches as Patterson in 2021 or Warrick Dunn for most of his career. I don't see him as a Ronnie Harmon or Larry Centers type in terms of utilization. He seems too dynamic for that, at least on his college tape.I dont think 120 attempts over 17 games is unreasonable at all. That would be about 7 attempts per game. I could see Gibbs averaging more than that actually.Peterson missed four games in 2011 and Harvin averaged just under 5 rush/game. His max potential carries was, maybe, 80 on a season. His actual high was 52. Even last year, playing in only 14 games Swift had 99 attempts. In one of those games he played only 10 snaps. It would be a big shock if Gibbs didn't his at least 120 attempts.Keep in mind that the Vikings had Adrian Peterson at that time otherwise Harvins rushing attempts may have been more than that.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
While a different style of player there were times that Harvin looked just as good as Peterson running the ball.
I think the comparison fits in that Gibbs may not be suited to have 15-20 rushing attempts per game he offers a lot of promise as a WR on top of that and he may be used in a similar fashion as Harvin or Reggie Bush type of offensive weapon rather than as a feature RB like CMC, but who knows? While I think he has a lot of promise to be an excellent player maybe he is capable of more than that as well. I thought CMC would be similar to Bush or Harvin as well.
I get the "offensive weapon" notion but this isn't New Orleans under Payton, I don't see Ben Johnson running his offense that way. They ran the ball 480 times last year with a talent and/or reliability diminished backfield. Should we expect less this season with better running backs?
AWWTFDIK?
My perception of what Harvin was capable of doing as a runner is more than he actually did.
Where I think there will be similarities is that I think Gibbs will be used a lot as a reciever, moreso than most RB and I think he will be used on jet sweeps and similar plays that you see from WR.
Reggie Bush for example averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over his career while also being targeted a lot in his first few seasons, although his use as a reciever tapered off later on in his career.
From both a skill and usage angle early career Reggie remains my best comp for him.
As you alluded to Reggie got over 10 carries a game his rookie season and about 8 targets a game all while Duece McCallister was getting about 16/2.5 per game.
If my life depended on me correctly predicting which team will lead the league in passes to the RB's next year I would pick the Lions.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I wasn't comparing him to Harmon or Centers.I think Gibbs simply profiles as a RB with above average receiving ability. I think he'll see a similar split of rush:rec touches as Patterson in 2021 or Warrick Dunn for most of his career. I don't see him as a Ronnie Harmon or Larry Centers type in terms of utilization. He seems too dynamic for that, at least on his college tape.I dont think 120 attempts over 17 games is unreasonable at all. That would be about 7 attempts per game. I could see Gibbs averaging more than that actually.Peterson missed four games in 2011 and Harvin averaged just under 5 rush/game. His max potential carries was, maybe, 80 on a season. His actual high was 52. Even last year, playing in only 14 games Swift had 99 attempts. In one of those games he played only 10 snaps. It would be a big shock if Gibbs didn't his at least 120 attempts.Keep in mind that the Vikings had Adrian Peterson at that time otherwise Harvins rushing attempts may have been more than that.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
While a different style of player there were times that Harvin looked just as good as Peterson running the ball.
I think the comparison fits in that Gibbs may not be suited to have 15-20 rushing attempts per game he offers a lot of promise as a WR on top of that and he may be used in a similar fashion as Harvin or Reggie Bush type of offensive weapon rather than as a feature RB like CMC, but who knows? While I think he has a lot of promise to be an excellent player maybe he is capable of more than that as well. I thought CMC would be similar to Bush or Harvin as well.
I get the "offensive weapon" notion but this isn't New Orleans under Payton, I don't see Ben Johnson running his offense that way. They ran the ball 480 times last year with a talent and/or reliability diminished backfield. Should we expect less this season with better running backs?
AWWTFDIK?
My perception of what Harvin was capable of doing as a runner is more than he actually did.
Where I think there will be similarities is that I think Gibbs will be used a lot as a reciever, moreso than most RB and I think he will be used on jet sweeps and similar plays that you see from WR.
Reggie Bush for example averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over his career while also being targeted a lot in his first few seasons, although his use as a reciever tapered off later on in his career.
Centers was a full back.
Warrick Dunn okay, I do think he was a really good RB but I consider Reggie Bush or Percy Harvin to be more dynamic than that. I also said his upside could be Christian McCaffrey, but I never really considered McCaffrey to become as great as he has been either.
I have a issue with comparing him to Patterson due to my purple hued perspective about him being a dissapointment.
I suspect that Montgomery will still see a lot of touches in 2023 and then we will see how Gibbs develops after that.
TripItUp
Footballguy
This is my comp as well.
Chaka
Footballguy
Forgive me, I didn't mean to suggest you were making a Harmon/Centers comp. For me they came to mind when talking about how Harvin could have been used. Those were guys who were great as receivers out of the backfield but typically had a rush:rec approaching 1. IMO those two were the guys that someone like Harvin profiled to in the NFL (utilization, not talent).I wasn't comparing him to Harmon or Centers.I think Gibbs simply profiles as a RB with above average receiving ability. I think he'll see a similar split of rush:rec touches as Patterson in 2021 or Warrick Dunn for most of his career. I don't see him as a Ronnie Harmon or Larry Centers type in terms of utilization. He seems too dynamic for that, at least on his college tape.I dont think 120 attempts over 17 games is unreasonable at all. That would be about 7 attempts per game. I could see Gibbs averaging more than that actually.Peterson missed four games in 2011 and Harvin averaged just under 5 rush/game. His max potential carries was, maybe, 80 on a season. His actual high was 52. Even last year, playing in only 14 games Swift had 99 attempts. In one of those games he played only 10 snaps. It would be a big shock if Gibbs didn't his at least 120 attempts.Keep in mind that the Vikings had Adrian Peterson at that time otherwise Harvins rushing attempts may have been more than that.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
While a different style of player there were times that Harvin looked just as good as Peterson running the ball.
I think the comparison fits in that Gibbs may not be suited to have 15-20 rushing attempts per game he offers a lot of promise as a WR on top of that and he may be used in a similar fashion as Harvin or Reggie Bush type of offensive weapon rather than as a feature RB like CMC, but who knows? While I think he has a lot of promise to be an excellent player maybe he is capable of more than that as well. I thought CMC would be similar to Bush or Harvin as well.
I get the "offensive weapon" notion but this isn't New Orleans under Payton, I don't see Ben Johnson running his offense that way. They ran the ball 480 times last year with a talent and/or reliability diminished backfield. Should we expect less this season with better running backs?
AWWTFDIK?
My perception of what Harvin was capable of doing as a runner is more than he actually did.
Where I think there will be similarities is that I think Gibbs will be used a lot as a reciever, moreso than most RB and I think he will be used on jet sweeps and similar plays that you see from WR.
Reggie Bush for example averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over his career while also being targeted a lot in his first few seasons, although his use as a reciever tapered off later on in his career.
Centers was a full back.
Warrick Dunn okay, I do think he was a really good RB but I consider Reggie Bush or Percy Harvin to be more dynamic than that. I also said his upside could be Christian McCaffrey, but I never really considered McCaffrey to become as great as he has been either.
I have a issue with comparing him to Patterson due to my purple hued perspective about him being a dissapointment.
I suspect that Montgomery will still see a lot of touches in 2023 and then we will see how Gibbs develops after that.
I don't see that for Gibbs.
I think Bush or Dunn are, IMO, solid comps for how I think Gibbs may be used as a pro. Both of whom were easily as dynamic coming out of college if not moreso.
I don't think he'll get the total volume that Dunn did consistently or Bush with Miami/Det but I think the ratio of touches will be similar.
I can't get myself to see the Harvin comp at all. In talent, dynamism or expected utilization.
Either way he is going to be one of the more intriguing players to watch in 2023.
I see Gibbs as putting up a very unique stat line. His recieving numbers will look better than Dunn's or Bush's and will look closer to Harvin's better years. Most of his catches will be down field as an actual WR, not screens. Gibbs will see far more rushing attempts than Harvin, but as many as Dunn.
Ben Johnson is going to have a lot of fun utilizing Gibbs. The thing about the Lions they do not lock themselves into some preconceived offense or defense. They design their units best utilizing the unique talents of their players.
Ben Johnson is going to have a lot of fun utilizing Gibbs. The thing about the Lions they do not lock themselves into some preconceived offense or defense. They design their units best utilizing the unique talents of their players.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Reggie Bush had 161 catches for 1159 yards in his first two seasons. Do you see Gibbs putting up better stats than that?
I got them attempting 120 passes to RB's, which was 8th in the league. 127 the year before when Ben Johnson was the passing game coordinator which was 7th in the league. It stands to reason this would have been a lot higher if Swift was able to play more.
As for the amount of passes to RB's I said earlier they would be my choice to lead the league.
Chaka
Footballguy
My bad, I see 81 receptions on 115 targets according to PFR.
Reynolds 10 targets, 9 receptions
Jackson 19 & 12
Swift 70 & 48
Williams 16 & 12
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm torn of how Swift was utilized last year. He was available for one more game in 2022 than 2021(starting 4 more games as well) but he played only 34% of the snaps compared to 50% the year before. And he ended 2021 with 78 targets and '22 with 70.
It felt like they lost faith in him as a runner and receiving was what they felt most comfortable letting him do.
I don't know how that impacts anything for 2023. Gibbs looks to be a very good receiver but Swift was pretty good too and Montgomery is pretty good himself.
The talent appears to be there so I do expect the RBs to be busy in the passing game but leading the league in any category (on any team) is ambitious. But, yes top 5 does seem realistic.
My question is will Montgomery's ability as a receiver act as a cap on Gibbs reception ceiling?
They drafted Gibbs and threw Swift away for a reason. They really like Gibbs much more than Swift and they view Gibbs differently. Gibbs will run more real routes that most WR3. His YPC will be 10-14 range. You can't compare last years numbers Detroit threw as their offense adjusts to talent.. As far as rushing, I meant to say not as many as Dunn, as I see about 120 rushes, not 200.
I meant ti say 'not'...I see closer to 120-150 carries for 650-800 yards. And 65-80 receptions for 800-1000 yards. So about 1500-1800 total yards.
I think Gibbs simply profiles as a RB with above average receiving ability. I think he'll see a similar split of rush:rec touches as Patterson in 2021 or Warrick Dunn for most of his career. I don't see him as a Ronnie Harmon or Larry Centers type in terms of utilization. He seems too dynamic for that, at least on his college tape.I dont think 120 attempts over 17 games is unreasonable at all. That would be about 7 attempts per game. I could see Gibbs averaging more than that actually.Peterson missed four games in 2011 and Harvin averaged just under 5 rush/game. His max potential carries was, maybe, 80 on a season. His actual high was 52. Even last year, playing in only 14 games Swift had 99 attempts. In one of those games he played only 10 snaps. It would be a big shock if Gibbs didn't his at least 120 attempts.Keep in mind that the Vikings had Adrian Peterson at that time otherwise Harvins rushing attempts may have been more than that.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
While a different style of player there were times that Harvin looked just as good as Peterson running the ball.
I think the comparison fits in that Gibbs may not be suited to have 15-20 rushing attempts per game he offers a lot of promise as a WR on top of that and he may be used in a similar fashion as Harvin or Reggie Bush type of offensive weapon rather than as a feature RB like CMC, but who knows? While I think he has a lot of promise to be an excellent player maybe he is capable of more than that as well. I thought CMC would be similar to Bush or Harvin as well.
I get the "offensive weapon" notion but this isn't New Orleans under Payton, I don't see Ben Johnson running his offense that way. They ran the ball 480 times last year with a talent and/or reliability diminished backfield. Should we expect less this season with better running backs?
AWWTFDIK?
My perception of what Harvin was capable of doing as a runner is more than he actually did.
Where I think there will be similarities is that I think Gibbs will be used a lot as a reciever, moreso than most RB and I think he will be used on jet sweeps and similar plays that you see from WR.
Reggie Bush for example averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over his career while also being targeted a lot in his first few seasons, although his use as a reciever tapered off later on in his career.
The Lions view Gibbs as an actual WR and RB who is capable of running a large route tree, which they have been VERY clear about on numerous occasions. You thinking he is an average recieving RB is nice. He will not be primarily catching balls out of the backfield like 99 percent of backs.
MCFootball123
Footballguy
I don't disagree with this at all, and in contemplating it seems if this ends up being the reality that Montgomery has more value than I thought.I think Gibbs simply profiles as a RB with above average receiving ability. I think he'll see a similar split of rush:rec touches as Patterson in 2021 or Warrick Dunn for most of his career. I don't see him as a Ronnie Harmon or Larry Centers type in terms of utilization. He seems too dynamic for that, at least on his college tape.I dont think 120 attempts over 17 games is unreasonable at all. That would be about 7 attempts per game. I could see Gibbs averaging more than that actually.Peterson missed four games in 2011 and Harvin averaged just under 5 rush/game. His max potential carries was, maybe, 80 on a season. His actual high was 52. Even last year, playing in only 14 games Swift had 99 attempts. In one of those games he played only 10 snaps. It would be a big shock if Gibbs didn't his at least 120 attempts.Keep in mind that the Vikings had Adrian Peterson at that time otherwise Harvins rushing attempts may have been more than that.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
While a different style of player there were times that Harvin looked just as good as Peterson running the ball.
I think the comparison fits in that Gibbs may not be suited to have 15-20 rushing attempts per game he offers a lot of promise as a WR on top of that and he may be used in a similar fashion as Harvin or Reggie Bush type of offensive weapon rather than as a feature RB like CMC, but who knows? While I think he has a lot of promise to be an excellent player maybe he is capable of more than that as well. I thought CMC would be similar to Bush or Harvin as well.
I get the "offensive weapon" notion but this isn't New Orleans under Payton, I don't see Ben Johnson running his offense that way. They ran the ball 480 times last year with a talent and/or reliability diminished backfield. Should we expect less this season with better running backs?
AWWTFDIK?
My perception of what Harvin was capable of doing as a runner is more than he actually did.
Where I think there will be similarities is that I think Gibbs will be used a lot as a reciever, moreso than most RB and I think he will be used on jet sweeps and similar plays that you see from WR.
Reggie Bush for example averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over his career while also being targeted a lot in his first few seasons, although his use as a reciever tapered off later on in his career.
The Lions view Gibbs as an actual WR and RB who is capable of running a large route tree, which they have been VERY clear about on numerous occasions. You thinking he is an average recieving RB is nice. He will not be primarily catching balls out of the backfield like 99 percent of backs.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't disagree with this at all, and in contemplating it seems if this ends up being the reality that Montgomery has more value than I thought.I think Gibbs simply profiles as a RB with above average receiving ability. I think he'll see a similar split of rush:rec touches as Patterson in 2021 or Warrick Dunn for most of his career. I don't see him as a Ronnie Harmon or Larry Centers type in terms of utilization. He seems too dynamic for that, at least on his college tape.I dont think 120 attempts over 17 games is unreasonable at all. That would be about 7 attempts per game. I could see Gibbs averaging more than that actually.Peterson missed four games in 2011 and Harvin averaged just under 5 rush/game. His max potential carries was, maybe, 80 on a season. His actual high was 52. Even last year, playing in only 14 games Swift had 99 attempts. In one of those games he played only 10 snaps. It would be a big shock if Gibbs didn't his at least 120 attempts.Keep in mind that the Vikings had Adrian Peterson at that time otherwise Harvins rushing attempts may have been more than that.Yeah probably.I think he just meant that it’s not totally unreasonable to see Gibbs as one of those rare players who actually does get used as a WR/RB hybrid. And hopefully Gibbs career isn’t hindered by crippling migraines.Of course! That is very fair, and I don't mean to diminish that. He projected to two 1,300 yard 8 TD seasons and one at 1,100 & 7.
Then again he also projected to three seasons with around 800-900 yfs. And then he was irrelevant and gone.
The fact that you have to prorate his numbers to get that far doesn't help when evaluating his career but, you're correct that it shouldn't be his entire measuring stick.
Good player at times but I think most people will be disappointed if Gibbs doesn't surpass his production.
Or maybe not. WDIK?
But that didn't really materialize for Harvin in the NFL. I mean, he lined up in the backfield a bit for sure but maxed out at 3.3 carries/game.
From a utilization perspective I imagine Gibbs will look more consistently like Cordarrelle in 2021. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries with 70 or so targets.
While a different style of player there were times that Harvin looked just as good as Peterson running the ball.
I think the comparison fits in that Gibbs may not be suited to have 15-20 rushing attempts per game he offers a lot of promise as a WR on top of that and he may be used in a similar fashion as Harvin or Reggie Bush type of offensive weapon rather than as a feature RB like CMC, but who knows? While I think he has a lot of promise to be an excellent player maybe he is capable of more than that as well. I thought CMC would be similar to Bush or Harvin as well.
I get the "offensive weapon" notion but this isn't New Orleans under Payton, I don't see Ben Johnson running his offense that way. They ran the ball 480 times last year with a talent and/or reliability diminished backfield. Should we expect less this season with better running backs?
AWWTFDIK?
My perception of what Harvin was capable of doing as a runner is more than he actually did.
Where I think there will be similarities is that I think Gibbs will be used a lot as a reciever, moreso than most RB and I think he will be used on jet sweeps and similar plays that you see from WR.
Reggie Bush for example averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over his career while also being targeted a lot in his first few seasons, although his use as a reciever tapered off later on in his career.
The Lions view Gibbs as an actual WR and RB who is capable of running a large route tree, which they have been VERY clear about on numerous occasions. You thinking he is an average recieving RB is nice. He will not be primarily catching balls out of the backfield like 99 percent of backs.
Monty is a 200 carry guy, with 900 yards and 10-12 TDs....probably 30 catches too. A great RB for a RB3 and not bad for an RB2.
I would think the combination of LaPorta and Gibbs will take away a few targets. But ARSB is still 100 catch guy as he is the best WR in the NFL at beating man coverage and picking up that first down, except for maybe Kupp.
Faust
MVP
12th overall pick
Maybe if he was a pound heavier and drafted four spots earlier, people would rank him in the top 10.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
No Montgomery fears? Feel like Monty is going to snipe goal line work and TDs. Or is Gibbs pass catching enough for it to not matter?
TripItUp
Footballguy
analysts seem split....those that have Gibbs ranked lower believe the volume wont be there. Those that have him ranked higher believe he's in line for enough volume to justify their ranking.
Nobody really knows the truth.
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Chaka
Footballguy
That's a very limited take.
There have only been six RBs drafted top 12 since 2012. There were six entire drafts without a RB drafted in the top 12.
2012 Richardson #3 overall
2015 Gurley #10 overall
2016 Zeke #4 overall
2017 Fournette #4 overall
2017 McCaffrey #8 overall
2018 Saquon #2 overall
Top 12 is a very arbitrary position. None of the previous six RBs drafted that high went later than #10, then it was McCaffrey at #8. Four of them were drafted top 4. Big difference between #4 & #12.
Only McCaffrey had major competition for touches.
Saquon 352 touches; Wayne Gallman 65 touches
McCaffrey 197 touches; Jonathan Stewart 216
Fournette 304; Chris Ivory 133
Zeke 354; Alfred Morris 72
Gurley 250; Tre Mason 93
Richardson 318; Montario Hardesty 67
It's much easier to have a top 11 finish when you are get an average of 315 touches.
The good news is Gibbs probably profiles closest to McCaffrey as a player and with his opportunity. But McCaffrey had a stat line of 117 carries for 435 yards (3.7 ypc) with 2 TDs, he massively bolstered his stats with 113 targets, 80 receptions for 651 yards (8.1 ypc) and 5 TDs. He led the team in targets too, with the best WRs on Carolina being Devin Funchess and 8 games from Kelvin Benjamin.
But are we really willing to sit here and suggest Gibbs is as good an NFL running back as Christian McCaffrey? He's going to need to be if he wants to get 80 receptions in 2023.
Last year the Lions called 1,067 offensive plays (the 2017 Panthers only had 990) and threw 119 times to RBs and David Montgomery is a solid receiver as well. I know many people believe Gibbs will be a revelation in the passing game but 80 receptions for a RB is a very rare feat.
ARSB is the unquestioned #1 WR and presumptive #1 target sponge in that offense. Khalif Raymond and Josh Reylonds are back, Jameson Williams will be back for game #7, they drafted one of the best TEs in Sam LaPorta and they just picked up Denzel Mims. Mims may be a nothing burger but he's tall, very fast and shouldn't be counted out. I feel it is going to be difficult for Gibbs to approach 100 targets in 2023.
Like him as a player and love him for the Lions just not sure what to think of him in fantasy. I certainly have a difficult time seeing a top 11 finish for him, even in PPR leagues.
Maybe if he was a pound heavier and drafted four spots earlier, people would rank him in the top 10.
He has the perfect recipe for a huge season. Besides Montgomery never stays healthy. I am not sure I care that much that Montgomery steals a few TDs. That offense will be great, and he has the potential have an 80+ reception season
All good points. I believe he is similar to McCaffrey as well, but like you pointed out the difference in their rookie situations is he is in an elite offense, with a great offensive line. I am panthers fan, and the Panthers were mehhh that year. Also Jonathan Stewart had a very good career, and there was a reason McCaffrey did not just come in and take over immediately when he was a rookie. Montgomery has only played one full season when he was a rookie. Point being I think Gibbs has a much better situation as a rookie with a much better offense and team. Could easily find himself in the top 10 backs by the end of the year especially if the Lions are in a lot of close games because of their defense. So many screens passes at the end of the game.
watch Mike Martz review of Jahmyr Gibbs on youtube and it tells you everything you need to know. Been getting him in every draft that I can. I prefer him as my #2 back, but I will take him as my #1
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Chaka
Footballguy
He's in a much better offense that McCaffrey was for sure. They ran about 80 more plays than the 2017 Panthers.
All good points. I believe he is similar to McCaffrey as well, but like you pointed out the difference in their rookie situations is he is in an elite offense, with a great offensive line. I am panthers fan, and the Panthers were mehhh that year. Also Jonathan Stewart had a very good career, and there was a reason McCaffrey did not just come in and take over immediately when he was a rookie. Montgomery has only played one full season when he was a rookie. Point being I think Gibbs has a much better situation as a rookie with a much better offense and team. Could easily find himself in the top 10 backs by the end of the year especially if the Lions are in a lot of close games because of their defense. So many screens passes at the end of the game.
watch Mike Martz review of Jahmyr Gibbs on youtube and it tells you everything you need to know. Been getting him in every draft that I can. I prefer him as my #2 back, but I will take him as my #1
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Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
But there are also more players who need to get the ball in Detroit, particularly starting in week 7.
So, the question is how many opportunities can we expect Gibbs to see? 200 seems incredibly optimistic.
And I wasn't particularly impressed by the Martz breakdown. Gibbs looked great but with the narrower splits in the NFL and a significant bump in talent on the opposition the opportunities Martz highlighted will be few and far between.
I'd take him as my RB2 but would prefer him as a flex play.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think losing some work, both goal line and touches otherwise to Montgomery is baked into Gibbs’ value by all but those maybe overhyping him, and I’m not sure I’ve seen much of it here. He’ll still score TDs (I’d say 6-8 total) and catch a lot of passes.
Maybe I'm getting duped by some clever editing but it looks to me like they really would have taken Gibbs at 6 if they did not trade back. Picks up a few minutes into the video with Arizona calling to move up to 6.
https://www.detroitlions.com/video/inside-the-den
https://www.detroitlions.com/video/inside-the-den
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Man what a cool freaking video. I buy it. They clearly love him.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I like that they got the combo of Gibbs and LaPorta for the 6. Make that defense think.
Deamon
Footballguy
Very cool video. When they were talking about "will he make it to 12, i dunno its a big risk" i thought they were talking about Carter. But they seem pretty happy when Gibbs is left there at 12. Crazy, feels like they were the only ones that had him in their top 15. Not saying it won't work out, but most thought it was a reach but the lions felt like they lucked out huge lol. Will be interesting.
