RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

“Lambasted” seems a bit hyperbolic - but playing the victim seems to be a new phenomenon on these boards

Amen

 

[barackdhouse]

Gibbs has often found himself at the top of my redraft board somewhere there in the 3rd when I don't like the other options and I think it is a slam there. I have favored going zeroRB a lot in the last couple/few years but sometimes I take him in the 3rd anyway because I just like the value too much. It's steep but especially if you start WR/WR or WR/TE - even if my intention was to keep fading RB it's pretty hard to do so with him in that spot.

 

[Da Franchise]

Sounds like maybe Amon-Ra is the guy that is going to get less short-to-intermediate targets and more deep stuff. On a game to game basis, he might still command a ton of targets all over the place regardless. If I had to bet (and I sort of do), I'd say the rookie TE is the one that will be left behind a little bit. And that might be ok as the fantasy TE landscape goes. That is to say, LaPorta might still be worth his ADP even if he doesn't eat as much as Amon-Ra and Gibbs. So I guess I'm saying I think there is room for all of them to do really well. But the barometer is different for TEs than RBs and WRs. *Maybe* Amon-Ra has more TD and yardage upside this year.

I’m open to this idea certainly. I’ve been imagining Jones and Reynolds (who I’ve always thought was a decent real life receiver) working downfield and then Jameson of course once he is activated. Guess I don’t see Amon as that type of receiver but would be interesting to see if he can evolve if given the opportunity.

Im with you on Gibbs. Takes a lot to get me to click a RB that early but he’s got all the traits and checks all the boxes that I require.

 

[menobrown]

Sounds like maybe Amon-Ra is the guy that is going to get less short-to-intermediate targets and more deep stuff

Is that something he can do at a high level is a question.

My guess, and this is using some kind of minimum target qualifier, that Gibbs will not only lead all RB's in the NFL in aDot but it won't be close versus whoever is number 2.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Sounds like maybe Amon-Ra is the guy that is going to get less short-to-intermediate targets and more deep stuff

Is that something he can do at a high level is a question.

My guess, and this is using some kind of minimum target qualifier, that Gibbs will not only lead all RB's in the NFL in aDot but it won't be close versus whoever is number 2.

Yes, this is one of those times where I believe a RB lining up “all over the place” and being used in the slot in camp will actually carry over into the season.

 

[Ilov80s]

Sounds like maybe Amon-Ra is the guy that is going to get less short-to-intermediate targets and more deep stuff

Is that something he can do at a high level is a question.

My guess, and this is using some kind of minimum target qualifier, that Gibbs will not only lead all RB's in the NFL in aDot but it won't be close versus whoever is number 2.

Yes, this is one of those times where I believe a RB lining up “all over the place” and being used in the slot in camp will actually carry over into the season.

It’s probably the best chance we’ve had in awhile. Only worry is that does involve a lot of football IQ and understanding the playbook. Is that too much to expect of a rookie?

 

[Moonlight]

Sounds like maybe Amon-Ra is the guy that is going to get less short-to-intermediate targets and more deep stuff

Is that something he can do at a high level is a question.

My guess, and this is using some kind of minimum target qualifier, that Gibbs will not only lead all RB's in the NFL in aDot but it won't be close versus whoever is number 2.

Yes, this is one of those times where I believe a RB lining up “all over the place” and being used in the slot in camp will actually carry over into the season.

It’s probably the best chance we’ve had in awhile. Only worry is that does involve a lot of football IQ and understanding the playbook. Is that too much to expect of a rookie?

I'm not sure he'll get volume. I think he's an exciting playmaker who will rip off a handful of long gainers. I like Monty as a better value bc gibbs will need to be uber efficient on his 10 touches per game. Swift had 10.6 touches per game a year ago, I see a similar role for Gibbs (e.g,, doesn't impact players who play other positions to get him to Top 20 RB production.) Previous year D'Andre averaged 16.4 touches per game.

FTR - and I try to warn people every year - I'm almost always wrong about the Lions RBs. At least I have been the last 2 years, no reason to think that will change.

Coaches are reluctant to use players they do not trust. This helps to explain why Swift was under utilized and eventually traded.
I see Gibbs’ matching the 16.4 touches Swift was getting prior to last year. Investing the number 12 pick in a guy who you were prepared to take at 6 means he is going to be used.
I also like Montgomery he’s a 3 down back who can open and close out games and will be used at the goal line. I will draft him with where his ADP is at.
Like the effort you put in to boost Gibbs by jinxing yourself.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Like the effort you put in to boost Gibbs by jinxing yourself.

for the greater good lol

I'm also doing my part by not drafting any of them. If they are gonna suck, at least it won't be at my expense. And if one of their guys beats me it was for the good of the team.

 

[Chaka]

I see Gibbs’ matching the 16.4 touches Swift was getting prior to last year.

You see 278 touches for him as a rookie with Montgomery on a $6 million FA contract? I'll take the under.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I see Gibbs’ matching the 16.4 touches Swift was getting prior to last year.

You see 278 touches for him as a rookie with Montgomery on a $6 million FA contract? I'll take the under.

I’m a fan and still don’t expect anywhere near 278 touches.

That said, what’s a bigger team investment? A FA deal that is essentially 2 years, $11m or pick 1.12?

 

[SoBeDad]

Will the defense be so good, that TDs will go down from last year? They were top 5 in points last year.

 

[Chaka]

I see Gibbs’ matching the 16.4 touches Swift was getting prior to last year.

You see 278 touches for him as a rookie with Montgomery on a $6 million FA contract? I'll take the under.

I’m a fan and still don’t expect anywhere near 278 touches.

That said, what’s a bigger team investment? A FA deal that is essentially 2 years, $11m or pick 1.12?

I do see your point but Gibbs is a cheap option.

Monty is essentially on a two year $12 mil deal before they have an out after 2024.

The simple answer is $6 mil>$4.4 mil so at the very least I would expect Montgomery to get 50% of the RB touches. He's 25 lbs heavier and he is a very capable receiver as well.

Personally, in August, I see Gibbs as a pretty clear #2 this season not a "1b". I would put his o/u for opportunities closer to 180.

 

[Chaka]

Will the defense be so good, that TDs will go down from last year? They were top 5 in points last year.

I am sure FBGs has written something about how a defensive improvement impacts offensive performance. Does it lead to more drives overall because defenses are stopping opponents? Does it lead to teams playing more conservative in the 4th when playing with a lead more often?

IDK. I will say that Campbell does not seem like the kind of HC to take the foot off the gas unless the game is entirely out of hand very late.

 

[DeaLerZ]

I see Gibbs’ matching the 16.4 touches Swift was getting prior to last year.

You see 278 touches for him as a rookie with Montgomery on a $6 million FA contract? I'll take the under.

I’m a fan and still don’t expect anywhere near 278 touches.

That said, what’s a bigger team investment? A FA deal that is essentially 2 years, $11m or pick 1.12?

I do see your point but Gibbs is a cheap option.

Monty is essentially on a two year $12 mil deal before they have an out after 2024.

The simple answer is $6 mil>$4.4 mil so at the very least I would expect Montgomery to get 50% of the RB touches. He's 25 lbs heavier and he is a very capable receiver as well.

Personally, in August, I see Gibbs as a pretty clear #2 this season not a "1b". I would put his o/u for opportunities closer to 180.

Gibbs is 1A lol , but to each their own

There is no way he doesn’t get 200 touches if he is healthy.

Monty is good value at his ADP to take some red zone scores, but overall he has not shown anything other than just being average at best. Only 1 thousand yard season in 4 years, and been struggling with injuries the last 2 years. He is just another guy at this point

Gibbs has elite talent, is a threat to take it to the house any time he touches the ball, and will change how defenses will play the lions when he is on the field. That alone is huge. No way the lions don’t figure out creative ways to get him the ball with atleast 5-6 targets, and 8-12 Carries a game. There will be a good amount of both of them on the field at the same time because you want Gibbs on the field because he is their home run threat and he opens up things for the “Sun God” or vise Versa

I want his value to go down though honestly because after this season you won’t be able to get him in the 3rd round or around $20 in auction.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I see Gibbs’ matching the 16.4 touches Swift was getting prior to last year.

You see 278 touches for him as a rookie with Montgomery on a $6 million FA contract? I'll take the under.

I’m a fan and still don’t expect anywhere near 278 touches.

That said, what’s a bigger team investment? A FA deal that is essentially 2 years, $11m or pick 1.12?

I do see your point but Gibbs is a cheap option.

Monty is essentially on a two year $12 mil deal before they have an out after 2024.

The simple answer is $6 mil>$4.4 mil so at the very least I would expect Montgomery to get 50% of the RB touches. He's 25 lbs heavier and he is a very capable receiver as well.

Personally, in August, I see Gibbs as a pretty clear #2 this season not a "1b". I would put his o/u for opportunities closer to 180.

Campbell makes reference in here to both Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne and Kamara / Ingram as comparisons for how he expects Gibbs and Montgomery to fit together. I’m stretched for time now but will show the historical usage of those duos. My quick glance at the stats would suggest anything but Gibbs as the clear #2, rather than a 1b. He could in fact be the 1A based on Campbell’s comparison.

 

[DeaLerZ]

I see Gibbs’ matching the 16.4 touches Swift was getting prior to last year.

You see 278 touches for him as a rookie with Montgomery on a $6 million FA contract? I'll take the under.

I’m a fan and still don’t expect anywhere near 278 touches.

That said, what’s a bigger team investment? A FA deal that is essentially 2 years, $11m or pick 1.12?

I do see your point but Gibbs is a cheap option.

Monty is essentially on a two year $12 mil deal before they have an out after 2024.

The simple answer is $6 mil>$4.4 mil so at the very least I would expect Montgomery to get 50% of the RB touches. He's 25 lbs heavier and he is a very capable receiver as well.

Personally, in August, I see Gibbs as a pretty clear #2 this season not a "1b". I would put his o/u for opportunities closer to 180.

Campbell makes reference in here to both Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne and Kamara / Ingram as comparisons for how he expects Gibbs and Montgomery to fit together. I’m stretched for time now but will show the historical usage of those duos. My quick glance at the stats would suggest anything but Gibbs as the clear #2, rather than a 1b. He could in fact be the 1A based on Campbell’s comparison.

This

 

[Tanner9919]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

I see Gibbs’ matching the 16.4 touches Swift was getting prior to last year.

You see 278 touches for him as a rookie with Montgomery on a $6 million FA contract? I'll take the under.

I’m a fan and still don’t expect anywhere near 278 touches.

That said, what’s a bigger team investment? A FA deal that is essentially 2 years, $11m or pick 1.12?

If Gibbs ends up with 80% of the touches predicted by Moonlight, that could break down to 4 catches a game and 9 carries. If he averages 8.8 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per carry with 6 total TD's, that would put his point total at just about what Jamal did last year. RB 12 for the year, just done in an entirely different manner.

 

[Ilov80s]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Monty consistently played on terrible offenses and bad o-lines. But yeah, he's not special or anything. It's more of a reflection on how small Gibbs is and how the backfield operated last year.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I see Gibbs’ matching the 16.4 touches Swift was getting prior to last year.

You see 278 touches for him as a rookie with Montgomery on a $6 million FA contract? I'll take the under.

I’m a fan and still don’t expect anywhere near 278 touches.

That said, what’s a bigger team investment? A FA deal that is essentially 2 years, $11m or pick 1.12?

I do see your point but Gibbs is a cheap option.

Monty is essentially on a two year $12 mil deal before they have an out after 2024.

The simple answer is $6 mil>$4.4 mil so at the very least I would expect Montgomery to get 50% of the RB touches. He's 25 lbs heavier and he is a very capable receiver as well.

Personally, in August, I see Gibbs as a pretty clear #2 this season not a "1b". I would put his o/u for opportunities closer to 180.

Campbell makes reference in here to both Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne and Kamara / Ingram as comparisons for how he expects Gibbs and Montgomery to fit together. I’m stretched for time now but will show the historical usage of those duos. My quick glance at the stats would suggest anything but Gibbs as the clear #2, rather than a 1b. He could in fact be the 1A based on Campbell’s comparison.

Ok, based on Campbell’s comments I looked at 3 time periods, covering 7 seasons. These were all so-called “thunder and lightning” timeshares. I could have included Detroit for the past two seasons, but my intent here is to look for possible guidance in the comparisons Dan Campbell himself offered up.

The following were included:
2000-2002 when Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne (on Wisconsin!!) shared a backfield

2017-18 Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram

2019-20 Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray


Over those 7 seasons:
“Lightning” averaged 194 carries for 943 yards and 9 TDs, 77 catches for 674 yards and 3 TDs. This equates to 232 fantasy points, standard scoring (non-PPR).

“Thunder” averaged 170 carries for 707 yards and 6 TDs, 23 catches for 161 yards and 0.4 TDs. This equates to 125 fantasy points, standard scoring (non-PPR).

The worst season for the Lightning role was either 2001 Tiki Barber or 2019 Alvin Kamara. The average of those seasons was 169 carries for 831 yards and 4.5 TDs, 77 catches for 555 yards and 0.5 TDs. This was good for 169 fantasy points.

There wasn’t a single season where Thunder outscored Lightning. The closest was 2017 when Kamara had 1592 total yards and 18 TDs, M Ingram had 1540 total yards and 12 TDs. The next closest was 2019, but Murray had 46 fewer points than Kamara that year (and 460 fewer yards, same TD total).

Does any of the above mean that J Gibbs will outscore Montgomery this year? Or that J Gibbs will be RB1? Nope. Just sharing some data for historical context. Again, looking at Detroit under Campbell could be a good counterbalance (but I’m too lazy).

 

[jon_mx]

Barring injuries to Goff or ARSB, there is no chance of the Lions offense taking a step back this year. Ben Johnson and Jared Goff are perfect for each other and are joined at the hip. The skill positions are all improved, especially at TE, with LaPorta easily putting up top 10 numbers. Amon Ra will have his best season yet and Gibbs will be a beast. The Lions offense is a lock as a top 3 offense and will produce nearly 7,000 yards. Draft accordingly.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Everybody should have someone that loves them as much as jon_mx loves the Lions.

 

[DeaLerZ]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

 

[King of the Jungle]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

McCaffrey is a bit of a unicorn. Most RBs at his weight range cannot handle the volume he has. I assume Detroit will consider that when trying to determine Gibb’s workload. Montgomery is an adequate back that will get what is there and can catch the ball. He did not exactly start his career in a prolific offense and has performed pretty consistently. I think behind Detroit’s line he will be a little bit better than his career average running the ball. This is not to say the Lion’s will keep Gibbs off the field, but I think they will try to preserve him a bit by splitting between the two instead of giving him the “McCaffrey” treatment.

 

[DeaLerZ]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

McCaffrey is a bit of a unicorn. Most RBs at his weight range cannot handle the volume he has. I assume Detroit will consider that when trying to determine Gibb’s workload. Montgomery is an adequate back that will get what is there and can catch the ball. He did not exactly start his career in a prolific offense and has performed pretty consistently. I think behind Detroit’s line he will be a little bit better than his career average running the ball. This is not to say the Lion’s will keep Gibbs off the field, but I think they will try to preserve him a bit by splitting between the two instead of giving him the “McCaffrey” treatment.

Nobody wants Gibbs to have a big workload

All he needs is 8-12 Carries and 5-6 targets a game to have a floor of a mid RB 2 with his skill set in that offense. If he gets more red zone looks than we expect, gets more than 60+ receptions, or looks even better than we expect he can easily make the top 10

 

[Chaka]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

McCaffrey is a bit of a unicorn. Most RBs at his weight range cannot handle the volume he has. I assume Detroit will consider that when trying to determine Gibb’s workload. Montgomery is an adequate back that will get what is there and can catch the ball. He did not exactly start his career in a prolific offense and has performed pretty consistently. I think behind Detroit’s line he will be a little bit better than his career average running the ball. This is not to say the Lion’s will keep Gibbs off the field, but I think they will try to preserve him a bit by splitting between the two instead of giving him the “McCaffrey” treatment.

Nobody wants Gibbs to have a big workload

All he needs is 8-12 Carries and 5-6 targets a game to have a floor of a mid RB 2 with his skill set in that offense. If he gets more red zone looks than we expect, gets more than 60+ receptions, or looks even better than we expect he can easily make the top 10

221 touches seems mostly reasonable, 306 touches is a huge workload.

 

[jm192]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

 

[Chaka]

I think we all agree that Gibbs doesn't need to out touch Montgomery to score more fantasy points than him.

But, until other teams prove they can stop the Lions at the goal line I wouldn't expect Montgomery to simply fade away.

 

[massraider]

Who would win in a fight between Jahmyr Gibbs and a hurricane?

The hurricane is named Barry.

 

[Biabreakable]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

McCaffrey is a bit of a unicorn. Most RBs at his weight range cannot handle the volume he has. I assume Detroit will consider that when trying to determine Gibb’s workload. Montgomery is an adequate back that will get what is there and can catch the ball. He did not exactly start his career in a prolific offense and has performed pretty consistently. I think behind Detroit’s line he will be a little bit better than his career average running the ball. This is not to say the Lion’s will keep Gibbs off the field, but I think they will try to preserve him a bit by splitting between the two instead of giving him the “McCaffrey” treatment.

McCaffreys rookie season he split with Johnathan Stewart and had 117 rushing attempts at 3.7 ypc although he did have 80 receptions, I think its fair to say he struggled a bit as a rusher in his rookie season.

He bulked up over the offseason and doubled his rushing attempts in year 2 while also improving his efficiency running the ball to 5 ypc and had 107 receptions.

Year 3 enter Norv Turner and he jumped to 287 rushing attempts 116 receptions. Not many other coaches in the NFL will use their top RB as much as Norv Turner has historically. Maybe **** Vermeil.

I think McCaffrey is Gibbs absolute upside but in making this comparision I think its also fair to consider Gibbs may need some seasoning before reaching his ultimate upside in similar fashion as McCaffrey did.

Not sure why Richard Vermeils name had to be asterixed out here.. that is the name he went by...

 

[Chaka]

Who would win in a fight between Jahmyr Gibbs and a hurricane?

Chuck Norris

 

[DeaLerZ]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

that doesn't mean they won't dump the ball off to Gibbs similar to how the Chiefs used Mckinnnon last year.

Using Logic and Reasoning....

Amon-Ra St.Brown was the 6th most targeted WR in the NFL in the redzone last year (21 Targets), had 6 TDs in the redzone, and just fell short on the 1 yd line like 5x which is an absurd amount. People forget this stat. This is why Jamaal Williams was able to fall into the endzone 5x atleast, which leads to people over estimating how many looks that Montgomery could possibly get.

The point being the Lions will absolutely look to throw to Gibbs in the redzone, and it would be illogical to assume that he won't be a part of their game plan based on how they have operated in the redzone. I am sure he will also get a decent amount of runs in the redzone from inside the 10 yard line, he is incredibly elusive, and lightning fast. Again having Gibbs on the field will make defenses play the Lions differently, and he will be on the field a lot in two back sets, or lining up as a WR. A lot of things will open up for Amon-Ra, and Gibbs will get his looks too.

This is going to be a fun offense to watch this year, and some great value for fantasy football. I love the Goff/St.Brown/Gibbs stack in best ball. Easier to get, and people forget Goff was a top 10 QB last year.

 

[Chaka]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

that doesn't mean they won't dump the ball off to Gibbs similar to how the Chiefs used Mckinnnon last year.

Using Logic and Reasoning....

Amon-Ra St.Brown was the 6th most targeted WR in the NFL in the redzone last year (21 Targets), had 6 TDs in the redzone, and just fell short on the 1 yd line like 5x which is an absurd amount. People forget this stat. This is why Jamaal Williams was able to fall into the endzone 5x atleast, which leads to people over estimating how many looks that Montgomery could possibly get.

The point being the Lions will absolutely look to throw to Gibbs in the redzone, and it would be illogical to assume that he won't be a part of their game plan based on how they have operated in the redzone

I love this analysis, thanks.

But why would you say Gibbs is the potential beneficiary and not ARSB who was already getting those targets? Shouldn't we expect ARSB's role as they approach the goal line to remain the same?

I also don't think anyone believes Montgomery has 17 TD upside.

 

[DeaLerZ]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

that doesn't mean they won't dump the ball off to Gibbs similar to how the Chiefs used Mckinnnon last year.

Using Logic and Reasoning....

Amon-Ra St.Brown was the 6th most targeted WR in the NFL in the redzone last year (21 Targets), had 6 TDs in the redzone, and just fell short on the 1 yd line like 5x which is an absurd amount. People forget this stat. This is why Jamaal Williams was able to fall into the endzone 5x atleast, which leads to people over estimating how many looks that Montgomery could possibly get.

The point being the Lions will absolutely look to throw to Gibbs in the redzone, and it would be illogical to assume that he won't be a part of their game plan based on how they have operated in the redzone

I love this analysis, thanks.

But why would you say Gibbs is the potential beneficiary and not ARSB who was already getting those targets? Shouldn't we expect ARSB's role as they approach the goal line to remain the same?

I also don't think anyone believes Montgomery has 17 TD upside.

I absolutely think ASB is the one who will have the biggest upside in that offense. The offense runs through him. I am drafting him everywhere I can as well as I think he can have a Kupp like season. Even more so because he was averaging 25 pt per game in the final 6 games of his rookie season and I think in his 3rd year he can absolutely do that especially now that they are using him more on deep routes. His only real target competition is Gibbs at this point until Jameson Williams comes back, and with the recent fight in camp we'll see how that plays out.

Reasons I am assuming Gibbs will benefit from this as well

They drafted him 12th, they plan on using him (Draft Capital 1.12)
They traded away Swift (Swift had two top 20 seasons in that role, and misssed 3 and 4 games those years).
They see him as an offensive weapon and will be finding ways to get him the ball in space
He has great route running ability, and has been lining up as WR in training camp (Excellent Hands)
He has elite speed and elusiveness, exellent one-cut/jump-cut ability (4.36 Speed)
They will give him looks in the redzone as a runner and as a receiver
Great offensive line. All this guy needs is a little room to run, and he can take it to the house on any play. This dude absolutely passes the eye test

David Montgomery at 3.9 ypc career avg is just another guy at this point in his career. Do I think he can be effective absolutely, but I absolutely think the Lions will still use Gibbs in the redzone some. David Montgomery has also struggled with injuries the last two years. He missed 4 games in 2021 and was put on IR with a knee sprain. He missed 1 game last year with an ankle sprain, and was a complete non-factor in 4 games. He also only topped 1000 yards once as a rusher. You may say that he was in a bad offense, but I would say that it is not that hard to get 1000 yards rushing in a 17 game season if you are the clear starter. If he gets hurt or misses anytime Gibbs immediately becomes top 10 with top 5 upside.

The Lions defense is god awful. They will be in high scoring shoot outs. Who will benefit most when the Lions are in a two minute drill. Gibbs and St.Brown. Quick slants and dump offs. This is what I think a two minute drill for this team will look like

Jarod Goff pass short right complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 8 yards
Jarod Goff pass short right complete to Amon-Ra St.Brown for 14 yards
Jarod Goff pass inc deep left to Marvin Jones JR.
Jarod Goff pass short left complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 5 yards
Jarod Goff pass deep left to Amon-Ra St.Brown for 29 yards
Jarod Goff pass inc to Josh Reynolds
Jahmyr Gibbs rushes up the middle for 17 yards (TIMEOUT)
Jarod Goff pass short to Sam La Porta for 5 yards
Jarod Goff pass short right to Amon-Ra St.Brown 3 yards TOUCHDOWN!

Getting excited about watching this guy play this year as I am typing this up

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Just watch this guy.. even the announcer said as he is watching the game "Reminds me so much of Alvin Kamara". The game vs Arkansas he had 18 carries for 206 yards rushing, 2 TDs, and 2 rec for 20 yds (Top 20 opponent). Alabama's offensive line was not even that good last year.

72 yard TD, and 76 yard TD in that game. He just needs opportunities, and with that offensive line you have to think their will be huge holes

 

[Chaka]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

that doesn't mean they won't dump the ball off to Gibbs similar to how the Chiefs used Mckinnnon last year.

Using Logic and Reasoning....

Amon-Ra St.Brown was the 6th most targeted WR in the NFL in the redzone last year (21 Targets), had 6 TDs in the redzone, and just fell short on the 1 yd line like 5x which is an absurd amount. People forget this stat. This is why Jamaal Williams was able to fall into the endzone 5x atleast, which leads to people over estimating how many looks that Montgomery could possibly get.

The point being the Lions will absolutely look to throw to Gibbs in the redzone, and it would be illogical to assume that he won't be a part of their game plan based on how they have operated in the redzone

I love this analysis, thanks.

But why would you say Gibbs is the potential beneficiary and not ARSB who was already getting those targets? Shouldn't we expect ARSB's role as they approach the goal line to remain the same?

I also don't think anyone believes Montgomery has 17 TD upside.

I absolutely think ASB is the one who will have the biggest upside in that offense. The offense runs through him. I am drafting him everywhere I can as well as I think he can have a Kupp like season. Even more so because he was averaging 25 pt per game in the final 6 games of his rookie season and I think in his 3rd year he can absolutely do that especially now that they are using him more on deep routes. His only real target competition is Gibbs at this point until Jameson Williams comes back, and with the recent fight in camp we'll see how that plays out.

Reasons I am assuming Gibbs will benefit from this as well

They drafted him 12th, they plan on using him (Draft Capital 1.12)
They traded away Swift (Swift had two top 20 seasons in that role, and misssed 3 and 4 games those years).
They see him as an offensive weapon and will be finding ways to get him the ball in space
He has great route running ability, and has been lining up as WR in training camp (Excellent Hands)
He has elite speed and elusiveness, exellent one-cut/jump-cut ability (4.36 Speed)
Great offensive line. All this guy needs is a little room to run, and he can take it to the house on any play. This dude absolutely passes the eye test

David Montgomery at 3.9 ypc career avg is just another guy at this point in his career. Do I think he can be effective absolutely, but I absolutely think the Lions will still use Gibbs in the redzone some. David Montgomery has also struggled with injuries the last two years. He missed 4 games in 2021 and was put on IR with a knee sprain. He missed 1 game last year with an ankle sprain, and was a complete non-factor in 4 games. He also only topped 1000 yards once as a rusher. You may say that he was in a bad offense, but I would say that it is not that hard to get 1000 yards rushing in a 17 game season if you are the clear starter. If he gets hurt or misses anytime Gibbs immediately becomes top 10 with top 5 upside.

The Lions defense is god awful. They will be in high scoring shoot outs. Who will benefit most when the Lions are in a two minute drill. Gibbs and St.Brown. Quick slants and dump offs. This is what I think a two minute drill for this team will look like

Jarod Goff pass short complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 8 yards
Jarod Goff pass short complete to Amon-Ra St.Brown for 14 yards
Jarod Goff pass inc deep left to Marvin Jones JR.
Jarod Goff pass short complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 5 yards
Jarod Goff pass deep left to Amon-Ra St.Brown for 29 yards
Jarod Goff pass inc to Josh Reynolds
Jahmyr Gibbs rushes up the middle for 17 yards (TIMEOUT)
Jarod Goff pass short to Sam La Porta for 5 yards
Jarod Goff pass short to Amon-Ra St.Brown 3 yards TOUCHDOWN!

Getting excited about watching this guy play this year as I am typing this up

Good points.

I don't really factor in injury potential as it works both ways. If Gibbs misses time Montgomery should also be a clear top 10 back in that offense.

 

[jm192]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

that doesn't mean they won't dump the ball off to Gibbs similar to how the Chiefs used Mckinnnon last year.

Using Logic and Reasoning....

Amon-Ra St.Brown was the 6th most targeted WR in the NFL in the redzone last year (21 Targets), had 6 TDs in the redzone, and just fell short on the 1 yd line like 5x which is an absurd amount. People forget this stat. This is why Jamaal Williams was able to fall into the endzone 5x atleast, which leads to people over estimating how many looks that Montgomery could possibly get.

The point being the Lions will absolutely look to throw to Gibbs in the redzone, and it would be illogical to assume that he won't be a part of their game plan based on how they have operated in the redzone. I am sure he will also get a decent amount of runs in the redzone from inside the 10 yard line, he is incredibly elusive, and lightning fast. Again having Gibbs on the field will make defenses play the Lions differently, and he will be on the field a lot in two back sets, or lining up as a WR. A lot of things will open up for Amon-Ra, and Gibbs will get his looks too.

This is going to be a fun offense to watch this year, and some great value for fantasy football. I love the Goff/St.Brown/Gibbs stack in best ball. Easier to get, and people forget Goff was a top 10 QB last year.

Your intermittent use of bolded words doesn't change the logic/reasoning.

Typically, when people talk about "red zone looks" for Running backs, they're talking goal line carries. Logic and reasoning suggests that the 224 Lb back gets the goal line carries.

Montgomery won't get Jamal Williams 17 TD's. But he'll likely get the goal line work. Now if we're saying "I mean Gibbs will get targets inside the redzone." Sure.

I have no doubt that Gibbs gets some targets inside the 20. I don't think he gets a lot of hand offs inside the 5. How many redzone targets do you think he's getting? Ekeler led all RB's with 25. McKinnon got 15. Some of those are going to be 6 yard swing passes from the 18.

 

[DeaLerZ]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

that doesn't mean they won't dump the ball off to Gibbs similar to how the Chiefs used Mckinnnon last year.

Using Logic and Reasoning....

Amon-Ra St.Brown was the 6th most targeted WR in the NFL in the redzone last year (21 Targets), had 6 TDs in the redzone, and just fell short on the 1 yd line like 5x which is an absurd amount. People forget this stat. This is why Jamaal Williams was able to fall into the endzone 5x atleast, which leads to people over estimating how many looks that Montgomery could possibly get.

The point being the Lions will absolutely look to throw to Gibbs in the redzone, and it would be illogical to assume that he won't be a part of their game plan based on how they have operated in the redzone. I am sure he will also get a decent amount of runs in the redzone from inside the 10 yard line, he is incredibly elusive, and lightning fast. Again having Gibbs on the field will make defenses play the Lions differently, and he will be on the field a lot in two back sets, or lining up as a WR. A lot of things will open up for Amon-Ra, and Gibbs will get his looks too.

This is going to be a fun offense to watch this year, and some great value for fantasy football. I love the Goff/St.Brown/Gibbs stack in best ball. Easier to get, and people forget Goff was a top 10 QB last year.

Logic with reasoning suggests that the 224 Lb back gets the goal line carries.

Montgomery won't get Jamal Williams 17 TD's. But he'll likely get the goal line work.

I have no doubt that Gibbs gets some targets inside the 20. I don't think he gets a lot of hand offs inside the 5.

Your intermittent use of bolded words doesn't change the logic/reasoning.

Your lack of facts, and just stating that someone weighs 224lbs to support your BOLD statement that Montgomery will get some goal line carries does not change what I said at all. Thanks for your very valuable input though

 

[jm192]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

that doesn't mean they won't dump the ball off to Gibbs similar to how the Chiefs used Mckinnnon last year.

Using Logic and Reasoning....

Amon-Ra St.Brown was the 6th most targeted WR in the NFL in the redzone last year (21 Targets), had 6 TDs in the redzone, and just fell short on the 1 yd line like 5x which is an absurd amount. People forget this stat. This is why Jamaal Williams was able to fall into the endzone 5x atleast, which leads to people over estimating how many looks that Montgomery could possibly get.

The point being the Lions will absolutely look to throw to Gibbs in the redzone, and it would be illogical to assume that he won't be a part of their game plan based on how they have operated in the redzone. I am sure he will also get a decent amount of runs in the redzone from inside the 10 yard line, he is incredibly elusive, and lightning fast. Again having Gibbs on the field will make defenses play the Lions differently, and he will be on the field a lot in two back sets, or lining up as a WR. A lot of things will open up for Amon-Ra, and Gibbs will get his looks too.

This is going to be a fun offense to watch this year, and some great value for fantasy football. I love the Goff/St.Brown/Gibbs stack in best ball. Easier to get, and people forget Goff was a top 10 QB last year.

Logic with reasoning suggests that the 224 Lb back gets the goal line carries.

Montgomery won't get Jamal Williams 17 TD's. But he'll likely get the goal line work.

I have no doubt that Gibbs gets some targets inside the 20. I don't think he gets a lot of hand offs inside the 5.

Your intermittent use of bolded words doesn't change the logic/reasoning.

Your lack of facts, and just stating that someone weighs 224lbs to support your BOLD statement that Montgomery will get some goal line carries does not change what I said at all. Thanks for your very valuable input though

Your argument for why Gibbs will get redzone touches is ARSB fell short of the endzone several times. "I am sure he will get a decent amount of runs because hs is incredibly elusive and lightning fast." Lots of fast elusive backs out there--they don't all get redzone carries.

You seem to think you've brought some amazing amount of "facts" and you're literally saying you think it will happen because the guy is fast.

 

[Da Franchise]

People are way too chippy in this thread for zero reason.

 

[rockaction]

Yeah, I'm not buying the chippiness, either, and I think jm192 makes a salient and probably true point about goal-line carries. I don't see the need to denigrate it.

 

[DeaLerZ]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

that doesn't mean they won't dump the ball off to Gibbs similar to how the Chiefs used Mckinnnon last year.

Using Logic and Reasoning....

Amon-Ra St.Brown was the 6th most targeted WR in the NFL in the redzone last year (21 Targets), had 6 TDs in the redzone, and just fell short on the 1 yd line like 5x which is an absurd amount. People forget this stat. This is why Jamaal Williams was able to fall into the endzone 5x atleast, which leads to people over estimating how many looks that Montgomery could possibly get.

The point being the Lions will absolutely look to throw to Gibbs in the redzone, and it would be illogical to assume that he won't be a part of their game plan based on how they have operated in the redzone. I am sure he will also get a decent amount of runs in the redzone from inside the 10 yard line, he is incredibly elusive, and lightning fast. Again having Gibbs on the field will make defenses play the Lions differently, and he will be on the field a lot in two back sets, or lining up as a WR. A lot of things will open up for Amon-Ra, and Gibbs will get his looks too.

This is going to be a fun offense to watch this year, and some great value for fantasy football. I love the Goff/St.Brown/Gibbs stack in best ball. Easier to get, and people forget Goff was a top 10 QB last year.

Logic with reasoning suggests that the 224 Lb back gets the goal line carries.

Montgomery won't get Jamal Williams 17 TD's. But he'll likely get the goal line work.

I have no doubt that Gibbs gets some targets inside the 20. I don't think he gets a lot of hand offs inside the 5.

Your intermittent use of bolded words doesn't change the logic/reasoning.

Your lack of facts, and just stating that someone weighs 224lbs to support your BOLD statement that Montgomery will get some goal line carries does not change what I said at all. Thanks for your very valuable input though

Your argument for why Gibbs will get redzone touches is ARSB fell short of the endzone several times. "I am sure he will get a decent amount of runs because hs is incredibly elusive and lightning fast." Lots of fast elusive backs out there--they don't all get redzone carries.

You seem to think you've brought some amazing amount of "facts" and you're literally saying you think it will happen because the guy is fast.

I absolutely think ASB is the one who will have the biggest upside in that offense. The offense runs through him. I am drafting him everywhere I can as well as I think he can have a Kupp like season. Even more so because he was averaging 25 pt per game in the final 6 games of his rookie season and I think in his 3rd year he can absolutely do that especially now that they are using him more on deep routes. His only real target competition is Gibbs at this point until Jameson Williams comes back, and with the recent fight in camp we'll see how that plays out.

Reasons I am assuming Gibbs will benefit from this as well

They drafted him 12th, they plan on using him (Draft Capital 1.12)
They traded away Swift (Swift had two top 20 seasons in that role, and misssed 3 and 4 games those years).
They see him as an offensive weapon and will be finding ways to get him the ball in space
He has great route running ability, and has been lining up as WR in training camp (Excellent Hands)
He has elite speed and elusiveness, exellent one-cut/jump-cut ability (4.36 Speed)
They will give him looks in the redzone as a runner and as a receiver. Don't care that David Montgomery will get some redzone looks
Great offensive line. All this guy needs is a little room to run, and he can take it to the house on any play. This dude absolutely passes the eye test

David Montgomery at 3.9 ypc career avg is just another guy at this point in his career. Do I think he can be effective absolutely, will he get goaline touches aboslute, but I think the Lions will still use Gibbs in the redzone as a runner/receiver. David Montgomery has also struggled with injuries the last two years. He missed 4 games in 2021 and was put on IR with a knee sprain. He missed 1 game last year with an ankle sprain, and was a complete non-factor in 4 games. He also only topped 1000 yards once as a rusher. You may say that he was in a bad offense, but I would say that it is not that hard to get 1000 yards rushing in a 17 game season if you are the clear starter. If he gets hurt or misses anytime Gibbs immediately becomes top 10 with top 5 upside.

The Lions defense is also god awful. They will be in high scoring shoot outs. Who will benefit most when the Lions are in a two minute drill or playing from behind. Gibbs and St.Brown. Quick slants and dump offs.

 

[Da Franchise]

Yeah, I'm not buying the chippiness, either, and I think jm192 makes a salient and probably true point about goal-line carries. I don't see the need to denigrate it.

All the Lions threads are getting mucked up with this garbage and it’s a shame because it’s the most fascinating offense to evaluate this off-season IMO.

 

[King of the Jungle]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

McCaffrey is a bit of a unicorn. Most RBs at his weight range cannot handle the volume he has. I assume Detroit will consider that when trying to determine Gibb’s workload. Montgomery is an adequate back that will get what is there and can catch the ball. He did not exactly start his career in a prolific offense and has performed pretty consistently. I think behind Detroit’s line he will be a little bit better than his career average running the ball. This is not to say the Lion’s will keep Gibbs off the field, but I think they will try to preserve him a bit by splitting between the two instead of giving him the “McCaffrey” treatment.

Nobody wants Gibbs to have a big workload

All he needs is 8-12 Carries and 5-6 targets a game to have a floor of a mid RB 2 with his skill set in that offense. If he gets more red zone looks than we expect, gets more than 60+ receptions, or looks even better than we expect he can easily make the top 10

That was not my point. You said Montgomery was not a threat. I assume you are talking about touches. I agree that Gibbs does not need a lot of touches to be effective, but I also believe Montgomery will be active in this offense.

 

[rockaction]

All the Lions threads are getting mucked up with this garbage and it’s a shame because it’s the most fascinating offense to evaluate this off-season IMO.

Really seems to be the same cast of characters doing the mucking if I've been reading this stuff faithfully. I can't say for sure, because I tune that stuff out when it gets personal.

 

[jm192]

the biggest crime in this thread is believing in Monty. This guy flopped in Chicago and now he goes to another team to flop there. Can someone explain to me why we should care about a 3.9career ypc/avg RB? I mean, this is nonsense. Gibbs beats this guy out before the first play of preseason. I don't care about the 'he's too small' talk. This is a different NFL then Eddie George's time. Nowadays RBs avoid tackles more because of offense play calling and passes to RBs.
But monty is what we thought he was - a less plodding RB with no skill set, nothin impressive in his quiver , he's a slow as molasses RB who shouldn't get the praise or consideration that he gets.

Exactly Monty hasn’t done anything to show me that he is a threat. He is just a value pick because of the offense he is in, and the perceived red zone looks, but who’s to say Gibbs won’t get a lot of those?

And the Gibbs is too small thing makes no sense either. As he is basically the exact same size as Christian McCaffrey with a very similar skill set.

Gibbs 5’9” 200lbs

McCaffrey 5’11” 205lbs

I am taking Gibbs in every draft I can get

This is a game of using logic and reasoning to predict outcomes.

Logic and deductive reasoning suggests the 224 Lb guy they brought in is going to see the goal line looks.

that doesn't mean they won't dump the ball off to Gibbs similar to how the Chiefs used Mckinnnon last year.

Using Logic and Reasoning....

Amon-Ra St.Brown was the 6th most targeted WR in the NFL in the redzone last year (21 Targets), had 6 TDs in the redzone, and just fell short on the 1 yd line like 5x which is an absurd amount. People forget this stat. This is why Jamaal Williams was able to fall into the endzone 5x atleast, which leads to people over estimating how many looks that Montgomery could possibly get.

The point being the Lions will absolutely look to throw to Gibbs in the redzone, and it would be illogical to assume that he won't be a part of their game plan based on how they have operated in the redzone. I am sure he will also get a decent amount of runs in the redzone from inside the 10 yard line, he is incredibly elusive, and lightning fast. Again having Gibbs on the field will make defenses play the Lions differently, and he will be on the field a lot in two back sets, or lining up as a WR. A lot of things will open up for Amon-Ra, and Gibbs will get his looks too.

This is going to be a fun offense to watch this year, and some great value for fantasy football. I love the Goff/St.Brown/Gibbs stack in best ball. Easier to get, and people forget Goff was a top 10 QB last year.

Logic with reasoning suggests that the 224 Lb back gets the goal line carries.

Montgomery won't get Jamal Williams 17 TD's. But he'll likely get the goal line work.

I have no doubt that Gibbs gets some targets inside the 20. I don't think he gets a lot of hand offs inside the 5.

Your intermittent use of bolded words doesn't change the logic/reasoning.

Your lack of facts, and just stating that someone weighs 224lbs to support your BOLD statement that Montgomery will get some goal line carries does not change what I said at all. Thanks for your very valuable input though

Your argument for why Gibbs will get redzone touches is ARSB fell short of the endzone several times. "I am sure he will get a decent amount of runs because hs is incredibly elusive and lightning fast." Lots of fast elusive backs out there--they don't all get redzone carries.

You seem to think you've brought some amazing amount of "facts" and you're literally saying you think it will happen because the guy is fast.

I absolutely think ASB is the one who will have the biggest upside in that offense. The offense runs through him. I am drafting him everywhere I can as well as I think he can have a Kupp like season. Even more so because he was averaging 25 pt per game in the final 6 games of his rookie season and I think in his 3rd year he can absolutely do that especially now that they are using him more on deep routes. His only real target competition is Gibbs at this point until Jameson Williams comes back, and with the recent fight in camp we'll see how that plays out.

Reasons I am assuming Gibbs will benefit from this as well

They drafted him 12th, they plan on using him (Draft Capital 1.12)
They traded away Swift (Swift had two top 20 seasons in that role, and misssed 3 and 4 games those years).
They see him as an offensive weapon and will be finding ways to get him the ball in space
He has great route running ability, and has been lining up as WR in training camp (Excellent Hands)
He has elite speed and elusiveness, exellent one-cut/jump-cut ability (4.36 Speed)
They will give him looks in the redzone as a runner and as a receiver. Don't care that David Montgomery will get some redzone looks
Great offensive line. All this guy needs is a little room to run, and he can take it to the house on any play. This dude absolutely passes the eye test

David Montgomery at 3.9 ypc career avg is just another guy at this point in his career. Do I think he can be effective absolutely, will he get goaline touches aboslute, but I think the Lions will still use Gibbs in the redzone as a runner/receiver. David Montgomery has also struggled with injuries the last two years. He missed 4 games in 2021 and was put on IR with a knee sprain. He missed 1 game last year with an ankle sprain, and was a complete non-factor in 4 games. He also only topped 1000 yards once as a rusher. You may say that he was in a bad offense, but I would say that it is not that hard to get 1000 yards rushing in a 17 game season if you are the clear starter. If he gets hurt or misses anytime Gibbs immediately becomes top 10 with top 5 upside.

The Lions defense is also god awful. They will be in high scoring shoot outs. Who will benefit most when the Lions are in a two minute drill or playing from behind. Gibbs and St.Brown. Quick slants and dump offs.

I just want to be clear on the debate here.

You keep saying "He will get looks in the redzone." I have zero doubt that when we get to the end of the season, his redzone touches are above zero. If ALL you're saying is "He will touch the football some number of times inside the 20, agree 100%.

Most people--when talking about redzone touches--mean "goal line." Because those are the touches that most easily lead to touchdowns. Historically speaking, NFL teams don't use sub 200 lbs backs there a lot. They do use guys that weight 220+ lbs there. You kind of threw the weight back in my face, but it does point to historical norms.

Is it your belief that Gibbs has an equal or greater amount of goal line carries compared to Montgomery? And if so, can you support that other than "He's really good and fast and they like him a lot." NFL teams typically want big and plodding not small and elusive on the goal line.

 

[jm192]

All the Lions threads are getting mucked up with this garbage and it’s a shame because it’s the most fascinating offense to evaluate this off-season IMO.

Really seems to be the same cast of characters doing the mucking if I've been reading this stuff faithfully. I can't say for sure, because I tune that stuff out when it gets personal.

As far as I know, this is the only time I've butted heads with anyone in a thread involving a player from the Lions.

 

[rockaction]

As far as I know, this is the only time I've butted heads with anyone in a thread involving a player from the Lions.

I wasn't talking about you. No need to worry or think I'm thinking negatively of you. You're fine.

 

[Chaka]

All the Lions threads are getting mucked up with this garbage and it’s a shame because it’s the most fascinating offense to evaluate this off-season IMO.

Really seems to be the same cast of characters doing the mucking if I've been reading this stuff faithfully. I can't say for sure, because I tune that stuff out when it gets personal.

I think much of it is simple miscommunication. Written formats, particularly informal ones like MB posts, are always read in the voice of the reader not the author.

Couple that with basic human nature when challenged by differing opinions (typically entrenchment over the possibility of change) and it's a recipe for misinterpretation.

Throw in a pinch of victim mentality and viola

 

[rockaction]

viola

A good, honest, and probably true assessment undermined by the thought of John Cale and his favorite musical instrument.

 

[Chaka]

viola

A good, honest, and probably true assessment undermined by the thought of John Cale and his favorite musical instrument.

LOL. Can I blame autocorrect?

Yeah, I'mma blame autocorrect.