RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (2 Viewers)

[Rookiefever]

It’s only week two fellas. Campbell made it pretty clear he was gonna be eased in. I’m not jumping ship just yet

Its not at all a positive that Craig Reynolds got touches over him when Monty got hurt

I am sure the Montgomery owners said that every time Gibbs got touches. Teams use more than one RB.

When Monty was in the game he out touched Gibbs 2 to 1 and Reynolds got nothing
When Monty got hurt Gibbs out touched Reynolds 2 to 1

It sure looks like Gibbs immediately became the RB1 and Reynolds became the RB2. If Monty misses time I would expect those ratios to hold.

The only concern is at the goal line where Reynolds outweighs Gibbs by 15lbs. But that was the concern all along.

That is fair, I was watching youtube 8 box mana so I missed that, just every time I saw that part of the game it was Reynolds

That said, the question is draft capital, you drafted Monty with a certain expectation based on Gibbs and the split (and to be fair anyone who drafted gibbs too, it was just a 3 round separation)

And look, shame on the drafters, but part of this first quarter of the season is parsing usage, team confidence and player competence.

Non one is selling Gibbs at a discount... but maybe we should. I don't think he's a league winner by any respect but the reason for my opinion is how we saw Swift get used.

I assumed if they dumped Swift for what looks like a lateral move, there was more upside there

Maybe in this week we can see based on how Philly used swift, Detroit ISN'T that bright and left meat on the bone with Swift.

While that is possible that Detroit did not get the best use out of Swift as they could, I dont think how the Eagles used Swift vs the Vikings is a good example of that.

The Vikings often played less than 3 defensive linemen vs the Eagles in that game and the Vikings head coach is on record that their defensive game plan was intentionally inviting the Eagles to run the ball. As baffling as that might sound. As a Vikings fan I am disgusted with their "plan" and that the coach would tell reporters this with a straight face. But that is what happened.

So I think this is a bad example of the Eagles knowing how to use Swift better than the Lions did and more an example of how poorly the Vikings roster is constructed and how bad their defensive philosophy is. I feel sorry for the Vikings players being forced to execute this way and somehow buy in to the game plan.

I am sure if the Vikings played defense like this against the Lions and their other starting RB was injured as Gainwell was for the Eagles in this game, they would have used Swift like this as well.

The logic behind the Vikings doing this was supposedly to take away RPO elements of the Eagles offense and limit big plays, which they were not very successful at doing either.

The Lions do not have Jalen Hurts though, so this a significant difference to consider I guess.

I like Campbell and I like Detroit so not here to dunk on them. I'm rooting for long overdue success to their fans. But that said, Sunday is a HORRENDOUS loss off the chief win. You have to beat the team traveling west to east, when you're off a mini bye and they're missing both tackles. So if I know only one thing, its that they aren't infallible. I do like your point here and Goff certainly isn't Hurts in terms of a threat but it will be interesting to see if they take their two Minnesota games to play copy cat and attack a similar way with a similar player

Swift isn't a league winner this year but my oh my in a week or two you might listen to Swift for Gibbs offers and I don't know if the Swift owner bites

I'd take swift for Gibbs in a heartbeat right now

Just seen swift , mingo and a mid first for gibbs go through this morning. Both pretty savvy veteran dynasty owners.

 

[Chaka]

Zonovan Bam Knight signed to the 53 man. Expect him to get a healthy dose of inside gap & counter runs.

Do you see Knight moving ahead of Reynolds if Montgomery is out?

No idea. I suspect they’ll sprinkle on some inside runs for him, based on how the Jets utilized him last year,

Reynolds had back-to-back good games in 2021, hasn’t had much opportunity since. Like Knight he’s JaG but there is a level of comfort there. He’s decent in pass pro, by PFF pass pro grades Bam is better.

Gibbs got more opportunities in week 2 than week 1, and that trend should continue.

Personally I thought it was a very good sign that Gibbs was the clear favored option after Monty went down but that was a mid game adjustment.

With a week to prepare do you think it's possible that the Reynolds/Bam combo fill Monty's role and keep Gibbs closer to his current usage? Or is it realistic to expect Gibbs to approach 18-20 touches?

My guess is one of the bigger backs takes the short yardage/GL role. After that I have no idea.

 

[humpback]

Alvin Kamara’s first two career games:

8 rushes, 21 yards; 7 catches, 71 yards

Jahmyr Gibbs’ first two games:

14 rushes, 59 yards; 9 catches, 57 yards

Alvin Kamara- 3rd round pick splitting touches with 2 former 1st round picks in Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram

Jahmyr Gibbs- #12 overall pick, who they would have been happy to take at #6, splitting with former 3rd round pick Montgomery who got hurt in game 2, and who they were going to use in oh so many creative ways that the league has never seen before watch out hold onto your hats

 

[DeaLerZ]

Alvin Kamara’s first two career games:

8 rushes, 21 yards; 7 catches, 71 yards

Jahmyr Gibbs’ first two games:

14 rushes, 59 yards; 9 catches, 57 yards

Alvin Kamara- 3rd round pick splitting touches with 2 former 1st round picks in Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram

Jahmyr Gibbs- #12 overall pick, who they would have been happy to take at #6, splitting with former 3rd round pick Montgomery who got hurt in game 2, and who they were going to use in oh so many creative ways that the league has never seen before watch out hold onto your hats

Yea not impressed with how they have used him at all so far. They also haven’t let him even play a series of downs to get into any kind of rhythm on the field

Gibbs can absolutely be the James Cook in this offense, but you got to let him have opportunities to get going …

If Craig Reynolds comes in and carries the ball 15-20x, and Gibbs only sees 5-10x and doesn’t even get to play a full series on his own I will be somewhat concerned moving forward about how they are going use him. the screen passes for 5 yards just aren’t doing it for me …

Hope he gets Atleast 15-20x touches with Montgomery out

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Alvin Kamara’s first two career games:

8 rushes, 21 yards; 7 catches, 71 yards

Jahmyr Gibbs’ first two games:

14 rushes, 59 yards; 9 catches, 57 yards

Alvin Kamara- 3rd round pick splitting touches with 2 former 1st round picks in Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram

Jahmyr Gibbs- #12 overall pick, who they would have been happy to take at #6, splitting with former 3rd round pick Montgomery who got hurt in game 2, and who they were going to use in oh so many creative ways that the league has never seen before watch out hold onto your hats

Interesting narrative considering the Saints got rid of AP a few games into that season.

 

[humpback]

Alvin Kamara’s first two career games:

8 rushes, 21 yards; 7 catches, 71 yards

Jahmyr Gibbs’ first two games:

14 rushes, 59 yards; 9 catches, 57 yards

Alvin Kamara- 3rd round pick splitting touches with 2 former 1st round picks in Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram

Jahmyr Gibbs- #12 overall pick, who they would have been happy to take at #6, splitting with former 3rd round pick Montgomery who got hurt in game 2, and who they were going to use in oh so many creative ways that the league has never seen before watch out hold onto your hats

Interesting narrative considering the Saints got rid of AP a few games into that season.

No narrative, we're comparing their first two career games.

 

[Banger]

Yikes…I know we have a microwave mentality but the guy has played 2 games. He’s looked good and he’s earning a bigger role each week. Teams bring rooks along at different paces. It’s a tough game and a lot going on with pass protections, blocking, reading plays, learning plays and then actually making plays on the field.

To me, Gibbs is primed for a big time role as the year rolls on. I’d love to have him in every league I could get him. He looks great

 

[pinkstapler]

I have no crystal ball and honestly hope Gibbs pans out. He's an exciting player, and if he turns into Kamara it will be fun for everyone who's just a fan of football. However.... I really hope we keep this same 0 context Kamara stat comparison going all the way to the end of the season. It would be a shame to get to week 12 and start having to qualify why the comparison is no longer valid with a litany of excuses.

 

[Triangles]

This is an interesting analysis. If Gibbs becomes a bell cow RB, he will literally be a unicorn.

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[Banger]

so he needs to eat a big lunch and put on 2 pounds so he can be the best RB in the game like McCaffery.

 

[humpback]

Alvin Kamara’s first two career games:

8 rushes, 21 yards; 7 catches, 71 yards

Jahmyr Gibbs’ first two games:

14 rushes, 59 yards; 9 catches, 57 yards

Alvin Kamara- 3rd round pick splitting touches with 2 former 1st round picks in Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram

Jahmyr Gibbs- #12 overall pick, who they would have been happy to take at #6, splitting with former 3rd round pick Montgomery who got hurt in game 2, and who they were going to use in oh so many creative ways that the league has never seen before watch out hold onto your hats

Yea not impressed with how they have used him at all so far. They also haven’t let him even play a series of downs to get into any kind of rhythm on the field

Gibbs can absolutely be the James Cook in this offense, but you got to let him have opportunities to get going …

If Craig Reynolds comes in and carries the ball 15-20x, and Gibbs only sees 5-10x and doesn’t even get to play a full series on his own I will be somewhat concerned moving forward about how they are going use him. the screen passes for 5 yards just aren’t doing it for me …

Hope he gets Atleast 15-20x touches with Montgomery out

Yeah this week should be telling. People like to point out his increase in usage last week, but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt- prior to that he was on pace for a whopping 10 touches, which just isn't going to get it done. Plus like you said, no rhythm, no creativity, etc.

In any event, he should get 15+ this week by default, let's see what happens.

 

[Chaka]

Starting RB is out for mutlitple games

I don't see this update.

 

[Chaka]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

 

[humpback]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

 

[jobarules]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

Yeah, you guys are arguing two different things.

 

[Chaka]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

This is a really good back and forth, regardless of how it all plays out. To me this is the best of what FBGs / Shark Pool has to offer. I appreciate you both putting your thoughts out there.

So far Gibbs is seeing a pretty similar usage pattern to what Kamara saw as a rookie. Will that trend continue? Will his usage tick upward to the same degree? Not sure.

Even if his usage similarly increases, does that mean Gibbs = Kamara? Unlikely.

Either way, I’m interested to see what happens and would be surprised if Gibbs isn’t splitting touches 50/50 with Montgomery by the 2nd half of 2023. If not….well that would be more than disappointing.

 

[Chaka]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

This is a really good back and forth, regardless of how it all plays out. To me this is the best of what FBGs / Shark Pool has to offer. I appreciate you both putting your thoughts out there.

So far Gibbs is seeing a pretty similar usage pattern to what Kamara saw as a rookie. Will that trend continue? Will his usage tick upward to the same degree? Not sure.

Even if his usage similarly increases, does that mean Gibbs = Kamara? Unlikely.

Either way, I’m interested to see what happens and would be surprised if Gibbs isn’t splitting touches 50/50 with Montgomery by the 2nd half of 2023. If not….well that would be more than disappointing.

Thanks.

FTR I don't like the Kamara comparison at all. For me it's always been Swift. My (redraft) plan was to try and get both Monty & Gibbs to capture 100% of the Lions running game. Didn't work out.

But if Gibbs can get to Swift-like usage & efficiency which was 13 touch (4 receptions) 72 yards & .6 TD per game, I will still be okay with that gamble.

 

[Chaka]

Starting RB is out for mutlitple games

I don't see this update.

Merely ignoring what they said and paying attention to what they do.

Monty is “day to day.” They signed Bam Knight. They could have activated him from the Practice Squad Saturday. Call up from practice squad is a one week deal. Signing to the active roster is a 3 game commitment.

This is exactly the kind of value that, for some reason I pay Joe Bryant for and not you.

Thanks

 

[DeaLerZ]

Starting RB is out for mutlitple games

I don't see this update.

Merely ignoring what they said and paying attention to what they do.

Monty is “day to day.” They signed Bam Knight. They could have activated him from the Practice Squad Saturday. Call up from practice squad is a one week deal. Signing to the active roster is a 3 game commitment.

This is exactly the kind of value that, for some reason I pay Joe Bryant for and not you.

Thanks

Hopefully this gives Jahmyr Gibbs his opportunity to earn more touches and light it up

 

[humpback]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

We're in agreement that his usage so far has been frustrating. My question is, why? You seem to think it's because people overweighed draft capital so expectations should have always been lower, which is funny because I've posted in here a few times how I didn't think that necessarily meant he was going to be fed early and often, and used Jamo being drafted with the same exact draft capital as evidence. I even countered the "hype" draft room video by saying their front office had a very similar reaction when they took Jamo the year before. So obviously expectations weren't all about draft capital (mine certainly weren't), it was also about the talent of the specific player, the glowing reports from camp, the comments from the coaches about all of the ways they were going to utilize him, the lack of receivers outside of ARSB, etc.

Likewise, the contract they gave Monty doesn't guarantee him the ~70/30 touch split he had before being injured. That's high, even for guys who make a lot more than he does and who aren't sharing the backfield with a supposedly uber talented RB. So again, my question is why? Is there a simple explanation, like the game plans were more tilted toward the pounder? Pass pro concerns? Early career nerves? Minor injury? Etc. Or, it is more that this has been their plan all along and the role they envision him having in the future, 10-12 touches per game? That's what I'm discussing, not who's to blame for the high expectations or whether this should have been a surprise. That's water under the bridge, where do we go from here?

I will add that it's only been 2 games so no way of knowing for sure, but it's way too early to say it was a mistake to take him near ADP, especially for dynasty.

 

[Chaka]

I will add that it's only been 2 games so no way of knowing for sure, but it's way too early to say it was a mistake to take him near ADP

I knew we’d find common ground.

I started out WR-WR & had him queued up for 3.02. That was 8-10 spots ahead of consensus in redraft at the time but I wasn’t going to see him at pick 47. Guy in front of me started CMC-Josh Allen so I thought I had him for sure.

He took Gibbs at 3.01. Only newbie in our league, should have seen it coming.

Who knows, that guy may have done you a favor.

 

[nysfl2]

Zonovan Bam Knight signed to the 53 man. Expect him to get a healthy dose of inside gap & counter runs.

Do you see Knight moving ahead of Reynolds if Montgomery is out?

I'd be very surprised - Lion's coaches love Reynolds and put a high value on knowing the system and play book. Maybe Knight gets some short-yardage carries because he's more of a banger than the other two, but I'd expect Gibbs and Reynolds to be 1A/1B.

 

[Chaka]

ARSB missed practice (turf toe) and might be out or at less than 100% this weekend. I would think that bodes well for Gibbs & LaPorta to see more targets. Well, Jahymr had 9 last week, let’s just say maintain his target share.

Even as a Gibbs manager I hate hearing ARSB is hurt. He's easily my favorite non-Raider in the NFL.

 

[Smack Tripper]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

We're in agreement that his usage so far has been frustrating. My question is, why? You seem to think it's because people overweighed draft capital so expectations should have always been lower, which is funny because I've posted in here a few times how I didn't think that necessarily meant he was going to be fed early and often, and used Jamo being drafted with the same exact draft capital as evidence. I even countered the "hype" draft room video by saying their front office had a very similar reaction when they took Jamo the year before. So obviously expectations weren't all about draft capital (mine certainly weren't), it was also about the talent of the specific player, the glowing reports from camp, the comments from the coaches about all of the ways they were going to utilize him, the lack of receivers outside of ARSB, etc.

Likewise, the contract they gave Monty doesn't guarantee him the ~70/30 touch split he had before being injured. That's high, even for guys who make a lot more than he does and who aren't sharing the backfield with a supposedly uber talented RB. So again, my question is why? Is there a simple explanation, like the game plans were more tilted toward the pounder? Pass pro concerns? Early career nerves? Minor injury? Etc. Or, it is more that this has been their plan all along and the role they envision him having in the future, 10-12 touches per game? That's what I'm discussing, not who's to blame for the high expectations or whether this should have been a surprise. That's water under the bridge, where do we go from here?

I will add that it's only been 2 games so no way of knowing for sure, but it's way too early to say it was a mistake to take him near ADP, especially for dynasty.

In retrospect this makes a tinge of sense but also ignores jamo’s various issues of injury and suspension limiting his reps and development, so it wasn’t a 1 for 1

 

[humpback]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

We're in agreement that his usage so far has been frustrating. My question is, why? You seem to think it's because people overweighed draft capital so expectations should have always been lower, which is funny because I've posted in here a few times how I didn't think that necessarily meant he was going to be fed early and often, and used Jamo being drafted with the same exact draft capital as evidence. I even countered the "hype" draft room video by saying their front office had a very similar reaction when they took Jamo the year before. So obviously expectations weren't all about draft capital (mine certainly weren't), it was also about the talent of the specific player, the glowing reports from camp, the comments from the coaches about all of the ways they were going to utilize him, the lack of receivers outside of ARSB, etc.

Likewise, the contract they gave Monty doesn't guarantee him the ~70/30 touch split he had before being injured. That's high, even for guys who make a lot more than he does and who aren't sharing the backfield with a supposedly uber talented RB. So again, my question is why? Is there a simple explanation, like the game plans were more tilted toward the pounder? Pass pro concerns? Early career nerves? Minor injury? Etc. Or, it is more that this has been their plan all along and the role they envision him having in the future, 10-12 touches per game? That's what I'm discussing, not who's to blame for the high expectations or whether this should have been a surprise. That's water under the bridge, where do we go from here?

I will add that it's only been 2 games so no way of knowing for sure, but it's way too early to say it was a mistake to take him near ADP, especially for dynasty.

In retrospect this makes a tinge of sense but also ignores jamo’s various issues of injury and suspension limiting his reps and development, so it wasn’t a 1 for 1

It wasn't meant to be a 1 for 1, I brought it up to counter the argument that the Lions clearly plan on giving Gibbs a large workload from the start because they drafted him so high. They used the same exact draft capital for Jamo (actually traded up to 12 for Jamo vs. down to 12 for Gibbs) when they obviously didn't have immediate plans for him since he was going to be out for a while with the ACL.

 

[jon_mx]

Gibbs had zero pass pro reps week 1. 100% route participation, 9 passing downs, 9 routes run.

Last week he had 2 pass pro opportunities & gave up a pressure (hurry) - PFF tagged him with a grade of 13.0.

No blocky, no rocky

 

[Smack Tripper]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

We're in agreement that his usage so far has been frustrating. My question is, why? You seem to think it's because people overweighed draft capital so expectations should have always been lower, which is funny because I've posted in here a few times how I didn't think that necessarily meant he was going to be fed early and often, and used Jamo being drafted with the same exact draft capital as evidence. I even countered the "hype" draft room video by saying their front office had a very similar reaction when they took Jamo the year before. So obviously expectations weren't all about draft capital (mine certainly weren't), it was also about the talent of the specific player, the glowing reports from camp, the comments from the coaches about all of the ways they were going to utilize him, the lack of receivers outside of ARSB, etc.

Likewise, the contract they gave Monty doesn't guarantee him the ~70/30 touch split he had before being injured. That's high, even for guys who make a lot more than he does and who aren't sharing the backfield with a supposedly uber talented RB. So again, my question is why? Is there a simple explanation, like the game plans were more tilted toward the pounder? Pass pro concerns? Early career nerves? Minor injury? Etc. Or, it is more that this has been their plan all along and the role they envision him having in the future, 10-12 touches per game? That's what I'm discussing, not who's to blame for the high expectations or whether this should have been a surprise. That's water under the bridge, where do we go from here?

I will add that it's only been 2 games so no way of knowing for sure, but it's way too early to say it was a mistake to take him near ADP, especially for dynasty.

In retrospect this makes a tinge of sense but also ignores jamo’s various issues of injury and suspension limiting his reps and development, so it wasn’t a 1 for 1

It wasn't meant to be a 1 for 1, I brought it up to counter the argument that the Lions clearly plan on giving Gibbs a large workload from the start because they drafted him so high. They used the same exact draft capital for Jamo (actually traded up to 12 for Jamo vs. down to 12 for Gibbs) when they obviously didn't have immediate plans for him since he was going to be out for a while with the ACL.

I was being charitable, the jamo situation was wholly irrelevant as a predictor

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Gibbs media availability today (2:00)

WARNING you won't ever get those two minutes back

I'm continually amazed at how inane sportswriters questions can be sometimes

I wish they would have just kept asking him “what share of RB touches do you expect to get this week?” Instead they kept dancing around the question in a dozen ways. So dumb.

 

[Chaka]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

We're in agreement that his usage so far has been frustrating. My question is, why? You seem to think it's because people overweighed draft capital so expectations should have always been lower, which is funny because I've posted in here a few times how I didn't think that necessarily meant he was going to be fed early and often, and used Jamo being drafted with the same exact draft capital as evidence. I even countered the "hype" draft room video by saying their front office had a very similar reaction when they took Jamo the year before. So obviously expectations weren't all about draft capital (mine certainly weren't), it was also about the talent of the specific player, the glowing reports from camp, the comments from the coaches about all of the ways they were going to utilize him, the lack of receivers outside of ARSB, etc.

Likewise, the contract they gave Monty doesn't guarantee him the ~70/30 touch split he had before being injured. That's high, even for guys who make a lot more than he does and who aren't sharing the backfield with a supposedly uber talented RB. So again, my question is why? Is there a simple explanation, like the game plans were more tilted toward the pounder? Pass pro concerns? Early career nerves? Minor injury? Etc. Or, it is more that this has been their plan all along and the role they envision him having in the future, 10-12 touches per game? That's what I'm discussing, not who's to blame for the high expectations or whether this should have been a surprise. That's water under the bridge, where do we go from here?

I will add that it's only been 2 games so no way of knowing for sure, but it's way too early to say it was a mistake to take him near ADP, especially for dynasty.

In retrospect this makes a tinge of sense but also ignores jamo’s various issues of injury and suspension limiting his reps and development, so it wasn’t a 1 for 1

It wasn't meant to be a 1 for 1, I brought it up to counter the argument that the Lions clearly plan on giving Gibbs a large workload from the start because they drafted him so high. They used the same exact draft capital for Jamo (actually traded up to 12 for Jamo vs. down to 12 for Gibbs) when they obviously didn't have immediate plans for him since he was going to be out for a while with the ACL.

I was being charitable, the jamo situation was wholly irrelevant as a predictor

I don't never agree. It clearly demonstrated a willingness to take a long view on players.

 

[eighsse2]

Gibbs had zero pass pro reps week 1. 100% route participation, 9 passing downs, 9 routes run.

Last week he had 2 pass pro opportunities & gave up a pressure (hurry) - PFF tagged him with a grade of 13.0.

No blocky, no rocky

Isn't that a good thing though, on a passing down, to have your guy run a route rather than block?

 

[EthnicFury]

Alvin Kamara’s first two career games:

8 rushes, 21 yards; 7 catches, 71 yards

Jahmyr Gibbs’ first two games:

14 rushes, 59 yards; 9 catches, 57 yards

Alvin Kamara- 3rd round pick splitting touches with 2 former 1st round picks in Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram

Jahmyr Gibbs- #12 overall pick, who they would have been happy to take at #6, splitting with former 3rd round pick Montgomery who got hurt in game 2, and who they were going to use in oh so many creative ways that the league has never seen before watch out hold onto your hats

As someone who bit on both jahvid best and ameer Abdullah I have a bit of PTSD hearing this about the new scatback in a lions uniform

 

[humpback]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

We're in agreement that his usage so far has been frustrating. My question is, why? You seem to think it's because people overweighed draft capital so expectations should have always been lower, which is funny because I've posted in here a few times how I didn't think that necessarily meant he was going to be fed early and often, and used Jamo being drafted with the same exact draft capital as evidence. I even countered the "hype" draft room video by saying their front office had a very similar reaction when they took Jamo the year before. So obviously expectations weren't all about draft capital (mine certainly weren't), it was also about the talent of the specific player, the glowing reports from camp, the comments from the coaches about all of the ways they were going to utilize him, the lack of receivers outside of ARSB, etc.

Likewise, the contract they gave Monty doesn't guarantee him the ~70/30 touch split he had before being injured. That's high, even for guys who make a lot more than he does and who aren't sharing the backfield with a supposedly uber talented RB. So again, my question is why? Is there a simple explanation, like the game plans were more tilted toward the pounder? Pass pro concerns? Early career nerves? Minor injury? Etc. Or, it is more that this has been their plan all along and the role they envision him having in the future, 10-12 touches per game? That's what I'm discussing, not who's to blame for the high expectations or whether this should have been a surprise. That's water under the bridge, where do we go from here?

I will add that it's only been 2 games so no way of knowing for sure, but it's way too early to say it was a mistake to take him near ADP, especially for dynasty.

In retrospect this makes a tinge of sense but also ignores jamo’s various issues of injury and suspension limiting his reps and development, so it wasn’t a 1 for 1

It wasn't meant to be a 1 for 1, I brought it up to counter the argument that the Lions clearly plan on giving Gibbs a large workload from the start because they drafted him so high. They used the same exact draft capital for Jamo (actually traded up to 12 for Jamo vs. down to 12 for Gibbs) when they obviously didn't have immediate plans for him since he was going to be out for a while with the ACL.

I was being charitable, the jamo situation was wholly irrelevant as a predictor

I guess I was being charitable in assuming that you were following. I didn't use the Jamo situation as a predictor for Gibbs at all, I used it to show that you can't use high draft capital as a predictor for immediate usage.

 

[Chaka]

but they leave out the part about almost all of it coming after Montgomery got hurt-

We did this earlier. He had 8 touches prior to the injury (3:00 left in the 3rd) and 8 touches subsequently.

That is the fact.

The context (i.e. spin) is he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 split of touches prior to the injury and on the right end of a 2-1 split after.

Montgomery's status was always going to be an issue for Gibbs. You don't give a guy a top of market FA deal and not feature him.

The question is if Monty is out does Gibbs maintain his role in the offense while another back (Bam or Reynolds) moves into Montgomery's role, or does Gibbs become the feature guy?

Place your bets and we'll find out on Sunday.

Might want to check your facts- he had 7 touches prior and post injury.

It's also a fact that he was "on pace" for only 10 touches, pre-injury. Obviously that could have changed- maybe he would have ended up with less than 10, maybe more, heck maybe even in some bizarro universe he would have ended up with more than the 14 he got had Monty not gotten hurt.

Yes, everyone knew Monty was going to be an issue. How big of an issue was always the million dollar question, and through week 1 and 70% of week 2, it was a larger issue than most expected. And I'd counter your "you don't give a guy that deal and not feature him" argument with one we've heard in here over and over- you don't draft a guy #12 overall...

You're free to ask whatever question you want, as am I. Myself and some others are trying to figure out the reasons for the disappointing start, fewer than expected touches, uninspiring creativity, etc., and what, if anything, it says about their intentions for him longer term. No worries if you don't care about that, but it's a perfectly reasonable conversation to have. Not everyone is solely focused on this weekend or the rest of this season.

You're right, I meant opportunities. But the point still stands that it wasn't anywhere near "almost all of it."

The "on pace" number is frustrating for all Gibbs owners. Once again I put that on false expectations. You can't sweep away the basic flaw. Draft capital is important, very important. The flaw is; people applied a disproportionate value to draft capital while vastly discounting Monty's contract. Is that the fault of the Lions coaching staff?

What we have seen, while frustrating, is not truly surprising. That is a non-controversial statement.

Fantasy Football is a speculative hobby, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. We erred. I made a bad gamble by taking Gibbs near his ADP even though I believed Monty had a very good chance to outproduce him. My plan to get Monty later near his ADP failed. That's on me.

The bottom line is Gibbs may have an opportunity to change the Lions original plans going forward. (REDRAFT) I think it is premature to give up on him now.

We're in agreement that his usage so far has been frustrating. My question is, why? You seem to think it's because people overweighed draft capital so expectations should have always been lower, which is funny because I've posted in here a few times how I didn't think that necessarily meant he was going to be fed early and often, and used Jamo being drafted with the same exact draft capital as evidence. I even countered the "hype" draft room video by saying their front office had a very similar reaction when they took Jamo the year before. So obviously expectations weren't all about draft capital (mine certainly weren't), it was also about the talent of the specific player, the glowing reports from camp, the comments from the coaches about all of the ways they were going to utilize him, the lack of receivers outside of ARSB, etc.

Likewise, the contract they gave Monty doesn't guarantee him the ~70/30 touch split he had before being injured. That's high, even for guys who make a lot more than he does and who aren't sharing the backfield with a supposedly uber talented RB. So again, my question is why? Is there a simple explanation, like the game plans were more tilted toward the pounder? Pass pro concerns? Early career nerves? Minor injury? Etc. Or, it is more that this has been their plan all along and the role they envision him having in the future, 10-12 touches per game? That's what I'm discussing, not who's to blame for the high expectations or whether this should have been a surprise. That's water under the bridge, where do we go from here?

I will add that it's only been 2 games so no way of knowing for sure, but it's way too early to say it was a mistake to take him near ADP, especially for dynasty.

In retrospect this makes a tinge of sense but also ignores jamo’s various issues of injury and suspension limiting his reps and development, so it wasn’t a 1 for 1

It wasn't meant to be a 1 for 1, I brought it up to counter the argument that the Lions clearly plan on giving Gibbs a large workload from the start because they drafted him so high. They used the same exact draft capital for Jamo (actually traded up to 12 for Jamo vs. down to 12 for Gibbs) when they obviously didn't have immediate plans for him since he was going to be out for a while with the ACL.

I was being charitable, the jamo situation was wholly irrelevant as a predictor

I guess I was being charitable that you were following. I didn't use the Jamo situation as a predictor for Gibbs at all, I used it to show that you can't use high draft capital as a predictor for immediate usage.

Particularly when the high draft picks just blew out his ACL.

That was a rare occurrence, not sure I recall it ever happening previously. The overwhelming baseline expectation for top 10 skill position guys is immediate and significant usage.

Jamo acts as specific test case for the mentality of the Lions FO. So, yes in this specific instance people should have paid more attention to that than the normal expectation. However, since Gibbs' ACLs are fine the normal expectation drove the hype.

It's a natural reaction.

 

[infantsam]

Steelers fan here but somehow have owned Barry and more recently Best, Swift and now Gibbs.

The pick six and the play right before I think could have changed his stat line considerably. He was uncovered by 10 yards on the left on the first and and on the pick six that ball did not come out right, if he catches that in space he’s probably running free a bit.

Point being that might have gotten somewhere near the 100 total yd mark and that’s what I need to see to keep him in my flex spot.

Not sure sure RB2 ever made sense, but I may have tried that 3 times before with a Detroit speed guy.

I’ll take Campbell’s quote and keep him starting. Because Swift is behind him on my roster run lol

 

[humpback]

Gibbs had zero pass pro reps week 1. 100% route participation, 9 passing downs, 9 routes run.

Last week he had 2 pass pro opportunities & gave up a pressure (hurry) - PFF tagged him with a grade of 13.0.

No blocky, no rocky

Isn't that a good thing though, on a passing down, to have your guy run a route rather than block?

On any given play, yes, you'd rather have your guy run a route than block. But if they can't block, they won't be on the field nearly as much, and they can't touch the ball if they aren't on the field. Being a poor blocker (in general, not saying Gibbs is) will limit opportunities.

 

[menobrown]

Gibbs had zero pass pro reps week 1. 100% route participation, 9 passing downs, 9 routes run.

Last week he had 2 pass pro opportunities & gave up a pressure (hurry) - PFF tagged him with a grade of 13.0.

I don't get PFF any longer but I recall having it back when the Saints were super pass heavy under Payton and recall being surprised that over the 2 year period I had checked that RB's averaged 6 pass blocking snaps per game. Was super low relative to the pass attempts. Changed how I view the comment "if a RB can't pass protect they can't play" to thinking "you just need good coaching to put them in the right spot". With RB's like Bush and Kamara more often then not that right spot was running a route, same for Gibbs.

So even though Johnson has not direct link to those Payton teams we know Campbell does so I don't find this usage surprising.

 

[Da Guru]

During his presser yesterday DC did not seem like he was ready to throw Gibby in for 20-25 touches. Might be just coach speak though.

 

[urbanhack]

Do we know what he had for breakfast today???

 

[Snoopy]

food

 

[EWV1]

During his presser yesterday DC did not seem like he was ready to throw Gibby in for 20-25 touches. Might be just coach speak though.

Wouldn't 15-20 touches be his max regardless?

 

[Chaka]

During his presser yesterday DC did not seem like he was ready to throw Gibby in for 20-25 touches. Might be just coach speak though.

25 seems like a pipe dream. I see 20 as his absolute cap. Expectations should probably be 15-17 opportunities.

 

[Da Guru]

During his presser yesterday DC did not seem like he was ready to throw Gibby in for 20-25 touches. Might be just coach speak though.

Wouldn't 15-20 touches be his max regardless?

For the 12th overall pick as a RB that should be the floor. Lions need him to step up with Monty down.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is an interesting analysis. If Gibbs becomes a bell cow RB, he will literally be a unicorn.

Does Size Really Matter for Running Back Prospects?

Every year the dynasty football community is enamored with running backs. They may have the shortest careers, but drafting a successful running back in the first round can have an immediate impact on your fantasy team’s success. On the flip side, using your pick on anything less than an...

www.4for4.com

Is it?

Lots of words and charts but analysis?

Not really.

 

[ericttspikes]

If Craig Reynolds gets a 50/50 split or more with Gibbs this weekend, I think it's safe to say the Lions spending the 12th overall pick on him was kinda dumb. For that draft capital either Gibbs is capable of taking starters reps or he's a really expensive committee/gadget player.

 

[Rookiefever]

Over/under on Gibbs rush attempts this week?

Lions have 54 RB ATT through two weeks

I'll go with:

• Gibbs 18
• Reynolds 6
• Knight 2
• Cabinda 1

I’d say gibbs has a better chance of catching 18 passes than running it 18 times. As an owner I don’t even want to see him run it 18 times. 10-12 carries and 5-8 receptions would be just fine by me

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Over/under on Gibbs rush attempts this week?

Lions have 54 RB ATT through two weeks

I'll go with:

• Gibbs 18
• Reynolds 6
• Knight 2
• Cabinda 1

I’d say gibbs has a better chance of catching 18 passes than running it 18 times. As an owner I don’t even want to see him run it 18 times. 10-12 carries and 5-8 receptions would be just fine by me

Agree that 10-12 carries and 5-8 receptions would be just fine.


That said, Gibbs does NOT have a better chance of catching 18 passes, as that would be the NFL record for a RB. Seems beyond highly unlikely, whereas I could envision a scenario where any quality RB has 18 carries in a game.

 

[GibbsFreeEnergy]

Monty got hurt after 30 touches. Swift got hurt week 1 last year. Campbell is over analyzing. Force feed that f*cker till he pukes

 

[Rookiefever]

Over/under on Gibbs rush attempts this week?

Lions have 54 RB ATT through two weeks

I'll go with:

• Gibbs 18
• Reynolds 6
• Knight 2
• Cabinda 1

I’d say gibbs has a better chance of catching 18 passes than running it 18 times. As an owner I don’t even want to see him run it 18 times. 10-12 carries and 5-8 receptions would be just fine by me

Agree that 10-12 carries and 5-8 receptions would be just fine.


That said, Gibbs does NOT have a better chance of catching 18 passes, as that would be the NFL record for a RB. Seems beyond highly unlikely, whereas I could envision a scenario where any quality RB has 18 carries in a game.

My post post may have came off a bit snarky.my whole point was just that I honestly don’t think there’s any chance of either happening.

Eta. They seem to fully desire him to be catching passes over getting Carrie’s. So far any way.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Over/under on Gibbs rush attempts this week?

Lions have 54 RB ATT through two weeks

I'll go with:

• Gibbs 18
• Reynolds 6
• Knight 2
• Cabinda 1

I’d say gibbs has a better chance of catching 18 passes than running it 18 times. As an owner I don’t even want to see him run it 18 times. 10-12 carries and 5-8 receptions would be just fine by me

Agree that 10-12 carries and 5-8 receptions would be just fine.


That said, Gibbs does NOT have a better chance of catching 18 passes, as that would be the NFL record for a RB. Seems beyond highly unlikely, whereas I could envision a scenario where any quality RB has 18 carries in a game.

My post post may have came off a bit snarky.my whole point was just that I honestly don’t think there’s any chance of either happening.

Eta. They seem to fully desire him to be catching passes over getting Carrie’s. So far any way.

Haha, I figured.