OU#1
Footballguy
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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Moonlight
Footballguy
Only thing Emmit Smith was better at was pass blocking. Besides OL your QB is a big deal.
Down Under
Footballguy
JaMo's targets should mostly take away from Reynolds. I wouldn't expect his plays to affect the RBs hardly at all.
I’d be very hesitant to consider him a top 5 guy. He has THREE targets on the season so far.
He’s not going to score 3 tds every week.
rockaction
Footballguy
Thanks for posting, BL. If there's anyone I like listening to among current athletes, it's Austin Ekeler.
Hartliner
Footballguy
Are Rookie Running Backs Undervalued in Fantasy?
Andrew Lalama breaks down whether rookie running backs are being undervalued in fantasy football.
www.rotoballer.com
Too Long Didn't Read:
- Of the 14 rookie RBs with an ADP in the first three rounds since 2012, five did not return value on ADP.
- Just two of 14 did not return RB2 value. (One of those was Dalvin Cook, who suffered a season-ending injury).
- Eight of 14 finished as RB1s.
If it aint broke don't fix it.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I was offered Achane for him and had to consider it. Didnt do it, but I am not convinced at all that it was the right choice.
No offense, but I’ll probably defer to Ekeler over you on this one.
And Jonathan Taylor is the answer you’re looking for.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
For RB that are good the rookie season is the least productive of their first six seasons in the league on average.
So most of them improve after their rookie seasons. Thats why they are called rookies after all. There are many nuances of the position as Eckler is talking about with Gibbs and that player after player have talked about needing to improve. Getting used to the speed and complexity of the pro level of play. Learning to have paitence, pressing the hole, pass protection, route running ect.
Players who have had their rookie seasons be their best performance of their careers either got injured or failed to improve like Trent Richardson.
While its true that rookies from the RB position can contribute and produce sooner in their careers compared to other positions usually that does not mean they are playing their best football right away.
Eta - another reason why the rookie season for a good RB is their least productive of their first six seasons is because they split time with a veteran RB more in that season than afterwards. As they still have things to learn and develop that the veteran RB they are splitting time with has mastered. Particularly things like pass protection take time to develop and earn the coaches trust with.
Adrian Peterson split time with Chester Taylor his rookie season and many examples of this happening. Doesnt matter how good they are. Its rare for a rookie RB to not split some playing time with a veteran their rookie season. This is what is happening with Gibbs now.
Also a full season and the first offseason period is when players will change their training regimen. Sometimes adding or losing weight for their 2nd season to improve their overall ability. That does not happen overnight. It takes time. For example look at LeVeon Bell. He did ok his rookie season but he lost 10 lbs over the offseason and completely transformed his play in his 2nd season.
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ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
That was super interesting. I had posted in the game thread last week that Monty always seemed to get those last two yards at the end of every run. Nice to see Ekeler plagiarizing my analysis
In all seriousness, I couldn't have told you why that was, just something I noticed. So it was helpful to hear his explanation
Wow, I would have snap accepted that.
Uh, no. JT was incredibly good (and a RB1) his rookie season.
Holy ****. I wish I could get Achane for Gibbs
The same guy who said PICK UP JOSH KELLEY!
Taylor had 1169 yard rushing, 11 TDs, and a 5.0 YPC his rookie season. What are you talking about?
His end of season stats were great. But I vividly remember folks panicking on him early in his rookie year after his 9/22 and 17/68 games just like people are doing with Gibbs now.
Maybe you weren’t playing fantasy then.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What about him?
However well he does this year I would expect him to improve after his rookie season.
Ezekial Elliot perhaps a rare case of a RB who was gòod in every facet of his play as a rookie and even he improved after his rookie season too.
Reddit - Dive into anything
www.reddit.com
There’s just one example with a quick search. There were plenty more.
The 2nd game of his career he went 26-101-1. His first game he had 6 catches for 67 yards. His 3rd game, 13-59-1. All you have to do is look at game logs. You are the one misremembering.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Really on Achane vs Gibbs? Its been 4 games into their careers. Gibbs a month ago was the 2nd rook off the board and Achane was sliding into the mid-second round. That dramatic of a change after 4 games? Achane is still really small for a featured RB.
I may revisit. I am easily moved off my own feelings when the majority disagrees with me because I kind of suck.
I've seen enough.
The offense is explosive. It took him two games...despite coming off injury...to equal/surpass Mostert's touches. I don't expect this production to continue, but I think the good times will continue to roll.
Meanwhile, beyond a shadow of a doubt Montgomery is the #1 RB for DET and Gibbs is #2 and he aint challenging him anytime soon unless there is injury. And even with injury, he didn't do much. Hell, Montgomery was killing the clock with less than 2 minutes to go...coming off injury!
Yes, complete no brainer
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Najee Harris
Chaka
Footballguy
So many issues with sample size to put much stock into this kind of information. Factually correct though.
Getting 26 carries in his first start is an important consideration. JT averaged 3.8 ypc that game
In Gibbs' first start he had 17 carries and averaged 4.7 ypc
Based on that information who is better? We simply cannot say.
Over his first 8 starts JT had 104 carries for 3.9 ypc. I don't think people were calling him "stud" at that point.
Over his 5 starts he saw 94 carries for 651 yards (6.7 ypc). That run is clouding people's memories about that season IMO.
Or maybe you're trying to move the goalposts, because the question very clearly was "How many rookie RBs struggle year one and succeed later", not "how many rookie RBs struggle their first 4 games and succeed later".
Obviously we don't know if Gibbs will struggle all year, but that was the "assumption" here.
Are you talking dynasty? That is much more up in the air, for redraft obviously the tides can change quickly but I'd take Achane over Gibbs in a heartbeat for this year.
It wasn’t just his first four games.
Week 7- 11/22
Week 8- 6/27
Week 9- 7/12
Lawd. Folks like @jobarules would’ve sold him for a bag of pork rinds and a 4th round pick after week 9.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Sorry for not clarifying but yes, Dynasty
Ahh different story then. Its a lot closer just based on draft capital.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
As a Taylor manager that year, this is my memory, too. Everyone expected huge things when Marlon Mack tore his ACL in Week 1, but for a good chunk of the season we hadn't really seen it yet. Prior to Week 11 had one 100-yard game, one other 100-YFS game, and 4 TDs. Over the last six games of the season, he beasted.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Alfred Morris (before RG3 broke)
Chaka
Footballguy
By the standard being applied to Gibbs, Taylor "struggled" for his first 8 games.
rockaction
Footballguy
I remember experienced dynasty players on this board selling him after six or so games. Nuts.
That still wasn't the question. Year 1 isn't 4 or 8 games. Even if you want to change the timeframe, Taylor still outperformed what Gibbs has done so far by a pretty decent margin.
See above.
Everyone seems to be misreading the question I asked
rockaction
Footballguy
I understood and understand it. I merely posted because I can see how JoeJoe88 thought that Taylor had a bad first year, because Taylor did indeed have a bad first half of a rookie year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is not an easy decision and in my view we dont have enough information to make a definite call yet.
Some things to consider here thoough are that Achane should have been drafted higher than the 2nd round of a rookie draft. Where he was selected then does not matter much anymore.
Reasons for that difference are NFL draft capital used on Gibbs was much higher than what was used on Achane. That said Achane as a 3rd round pick is still strong for a player at the RB position.
The weight certainly another reason, but Gibbs is not that much heavier than Achane. His size has been questioned as well.
I think Montgomery is a bigger obstacle to Gibbs opportunity in the short term than Mostert is to Achane. The approach of the coaches is different here. More willingness of Miamis coach to use Achane than Detroits willingness to use Gibbs right now. I think Achane has seen more favorable types of plays called for him than Gibbs has and perhaps easier match ups as well.
I think both will be good players but I could not guess who will have the better career right now.
I want at least 4 games to start judging Achane by. His plays have been amazing but sample size is still small.
I can see gut and just watching the players at the NFL level so far favoring Achane here but brain and history being on Gibbs side.
Thank you
All I was saying is, I know 4 games is definitely NOT enough to make a prediction about Gibbs' future. However, IF he continues down this path and struggles all year what are his chances of improving and being a good RB in later years? Based on recent history (last 10 years) I would say his chances are slim as the only example I can think of RB fitting these parameters is CMC. Are there any others?
rockaction
Footballguy
It's something I really hadn't thought about before, so I'm not coming up with anybody off of the top of my head. What usually happens is that it takes a while for the rookie to completely displace a veteran rather than coming in and being bad as a starter and then improving. So the dynamic is a bit different because most guys aren't handed the starting job to begin with.
If I had to guess, I'd guess that even in the past ten years you see improvement from the rookie year to the second year in a lot of backs. That's what I always thought. Biabreakable's post detailed why that is likely to happen.
But no, I can't think of a slam dunk started from the past ten years who stunk becoming somehow good. You know who would? Matt Waldman, who tracks this sort of stuff.
Chaka
Footballguy
No, he actually hasn't.
Gibbs has 39 carries & 14 receptions for goodness sake, look up JT's first 39 carries and 14 receptions.
Chaka
Footballguy
JT was given as an example that's why we're here.
How many successful RBs had their best year as a rookie?
leftcoastheel
Footballguy
Benching him this week. Just cannot trust him until I see him do something other than low-tier flex numbers.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I wouldnt describe what Gibbs has done so far as struggling. At least by metrics like yards per carry (4.6) catch rate (78%) he has been fine. The yards per target and yards per reception are below average so far (5 ypr 3.9 ypt).
He has slipped and lost his footing multiple times. He was also spied on by Walker vs Green Bay. A team wont usually isolate and spy players like this unless they are considered a threat by the defense. Doing so allows teams to scheme around and exploit that with other players if they do.
You claim based on the last 10 years that his chances of improving are slim, yet then ask for evidence of players struggling who improve in their 2nd season besides CMC? Why ask if you looked at the last 10 years yourself already?
You havent. So thats a baseless comment.
Gibbs has not struggled as a rusher so far but has as a receiver in terms of yards gained in a small sample size. Will that continue? I doubt it.
This whole conversation started because his own coach and Ekeler said he is struggling. Also, I have not looked at the last ten years. Thats why I am asking the question. CMC is the only one that comes to mind for me. Although I think Derrick henry could be another one. Started off as a backup to Murray. Then his first year starting he really didnt start producing until late in the season.
