Bristol
Footballguy
Yes! Missionary, doggie, etc.Sorry...couldn't resist.
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RB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid Week 1 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
el-gato-grande
Footballguy
I'm not particularly enamored with the match-up but I actually think LJ will be a decent start this week. The Pats have issues with their secondary and therefore I don't think they can afford to put 8 in the box. If they do, then I think Croyle along with Bowe and Gonzales will have a reasonable amount of success against them and will be able to move the ball. LJ will benefit from that if they are able to get into the red zone against the Pats defense.
I think 75 combined yards and 1 or maybe even 2 TD's is realistic.
I think 75 combined yards and 1 or maybe even 2 TD's is realistic.
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jaylasoul14
Footballguy
not to change this into a who do i start thread but im assuming many owners are now debating the same thing as me
now that chris perry has been named feature back , is he a better option that some some rbbc backs? In my main leagues i have dangelo williams and mcgahee as my rb 2's.
is perry now a better option??
now that chris perry has been named feature back , is he a better option that some some rbbc backs? In my main leagues i have dangelo williams and mcgahee as my rb 2's.
is perry now a better option??
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Let's talk more about Chris Perry...as I said in the OP I feel the Bengals are not to be trusted...they know they got a turkey this season and they just shaved $10 million off their payroll by cutting Thurman, Rudi, and Anderson...now you can spin that anyay you want but to me it sends a clear message that they are trying to cut costs this season. The Bengals aren't good enough to get rid of these kind of players or potential starters. I am going to have to see Perry play in real NFL games, for a full 4 quarters, see if he swells up like a balloon after getting knocked around 25 times in a game plus getting cremed when he tries to pass block, yeah I want to see him take a pounding for a few weeks because a guy with the endurance and will to play like him over the past 4 seasons has rivaled almost none. Let's take a wait and see approach with Perry. Who are the RBBC backs he is competing with?(don't answer that) If Perry is the starter and is not splitting a bunch of time with Watson...meaning if Lewis says we are going to work them both in you might want to pass...but if Perry is slated to be the main ball carrier than yes you would want to start him over someone splitting time. perry could easily have 4-5 catches and in PPR he would only have to muster about 50-70 total yds to make that a decent night.
Wild Turkies
Footballguy
Completely disagree on Seattle with you MoP. Not just for fun, but from logic of success standpoint. What does it take to win on the road in the NFL.... a running game. Seattle's record on the road the last two years has sucked as you pointed out. But they have something this year that they haven't had since 2005 when they went to the SuperBowl. They can run the ball this year. You can chalk the lack of a run game the last two years up to Shaun Alexander. Anyone that has watched game film knows this to be true. The offensive line was not great but it wasn't nearly as bad as Shaun Alexander made it look.
I'll admit that Julius Jones and Maurice Morris are no Fred Taylor and MJD, heck they are not even a Jonathen Stewert and DeAngelo Williams, but they will be effective. They will be fresh late in the game and they do something that Seattle hasn't seen in a long time. They hit the hole with power and they hit the defensive lines and linebackers instead of being hit by them. This is going to wear defenses out and allow them to pull games out on the road. The running backs will also be able to catch passes in the flat (Alexander led the world in dropped passes in the flat). This is going to stretch out the corners, and middle linebackers are going to be pulled away from the center of the field. That will help open up the passing game.
Which brings me to my final point, the wide receiving corp. The recievers are a bunch of no names (except a spotty Burleson) and those are valid concerns on the surface. But you have to know something about the tradition of Seahawks receiver success. Since Tim Ruskell came in they pull receivers from their practice squad. DJ Hackett for example (not a superstar but darn good when healthy, just look at his production from games he's played in). They notoriously draft receivers late in rounds or sign undrafted free agents and let them sit on the practice squad from 1 - 2 years and learn about route running and the west coast offense. If you look at his upcoming year Courtney Taylor, Ben Obamanu (before he broke his collarbone) and Jordan Kent will all put up good enough numbers to make up for a lack of Branch and Engram for the first half of the season. To people that don't really look into the Seahawks it seems like they have no quality receivers and no depth therefore think they are going suck in the passing game. But if receivers were really a concern don't you think Holmgren would have drafted a standout receiver in the first or second round? Or signed a free agent this offseason knowing that Deon Branch will miss 6 - 8 games? This is Holmgren's last year as a head coach. He wouldn't ignore such a significant position to his offense if he didn't have complete confidence in the WR that are in Seattle. In fact I'm pretty sure he likes that everyone thinks his receivers are going to be way down.
Wow, I feel like I've written a book here, but don't judge the Seahawks by their cover. If you do you're going to be way off come January.
The Wild Turkey out
I'll admit that Julius Jones and Maurice Morris are no Fred Taylor and MJD, heck they are not even a Jonathen Stewert and DeAngelo Williams, but they will be effective. They will be fresh late in the game and they do something that Seattle hasn't seen in a long time. They hit the hole with power and they hit the defensive lines and linebackers instead of being hit by them. This is going to wear defenses out and allow them to pull games out on the road. The running backs will also be able to catch passes in the flat (Alexander led the world in dropped passes in the flat). This is going to stretch out the corners, and middle linebackers are going to be pulled away from the center of the field. That will help open up the passing game.
Which brings me to my final point, the wide receiving corp. The recievers are a bunch of no names (except a spotty Burleson) and those are valid concerns on the surface. But you have to know something about the tradition of Seahawks receiver success. Since Tim Ruskell came in they pull receivers from their practice squad. DJ Hackett for example (not a superstar but darn good when healthy, just look at his production from games he's played in). They notoriously draft receivers late in rounds or sign undrafted free agents and let them sit on the practice squad from 1 - 2 years and learn about route running and the west coast offense. If you look at his upcoming year Courtney Taylor, Ben Obamanu (before he broke his collarbone) and Jordan Kent will all put up good enough numbers to make up for a lack of Branch and Engram for the first half of the season. To people that don't really look into the Seahawks it seems like they have no quality receivers and no depth therefore think they are going suck in the passing game. But if receivers were really a concern don't you think Holmgren would have drafted a standout receiver in the first or second round? Or signed a free agent this offseason knowing that Deon Branch will miss 6 - 8 games? This is Holmgren's last year as a head coach. He wouldn't ignore such a significant position to his offense if he didn't have complete confidence in the WR that are in Seattle. In fact I'm pretty sure he likes that everyone thinks his receivers are going to be way down.
Wow, I feel like I've written a book here, but don't judge the Seahawks by their cover. If you do you're going to be way off come January.
The Wild Turkey out
Facecow
Footballguy
I'm a little surprised at your write up of the Week 1 Oakland situation in regards to Fargas:
Denver was one of the 3 worst run defenses last year giving up 4.6 yards/attempt and the third most rushing yards allowed - 2282.I recognize that McFadden is the Raider's latest great hope so if there was ever a time to play Fargas it has to be early in the NFL season while he remains at the top of the depth chart. Presumably, McFadden is being brought along at a pace befitting most rookies which gives Fargas some breathing room however short-term.Fargas played well last season and I suspect he'll continue to do so until the team's season falls apart or McFadden's skills are simply to impressive to deny but that won't happen in week 1. I say he's a legit start this weekend for those squads having to get creative to start the season.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Good points, duly noted.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
These are the kind of posts I want to encourage...if you have player info, especially to key positions along the OL and DL pleae share them with all of us. I already thought Grant had his work cut out, but now the Center could be out...not good against the Williams boys upfront.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
I agree...not a good spot for the Seahawks. They don't travel all that well for one thing (6-12 ATS last 2 yrs), even if they were 100%. Plus they've got 2 conference match-ups the next 2 weeks. Buffalo surprised people last year in going 7-9 SU (6-2 ATS at home). They will be better this year. A little trend tidbit....Buffalo is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite (8-1 in their last 9). That tells you it's a tough place to play.
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3nOut
Footballguy
Per CBS.sportsline.com
Grant was my RB keeper (can only keep one per position) but I am now thinking about starting Ricky over Grant (both, because of the risk and because of the matchup). And to those who say that if you draft someone high, you should never sit them, I say that although he may be an RB2, it does not mean that he will put up RB2 numbers every game, all season long . He will average out to be an RB2 over the span of the season. And even if he's your RB1, it doesn't mean he is an RB1. Theres nothing wrong with having three RB2s and playing the matchups. I've seen this done successfully many times. There just aren't many "STUDS" left anymorethat you play no matter what.
Wild Turkies
Footballguy
This is not the same travelling Seahawks team that has been around the last 2 years....
BusMan
Footballguy
A few thoughts on Denver at Oakland:
1. I agree with the prevailing assumption that Oakland will pound the rock. This is good news for Run DMC, Fargas, and Bush (to a much lesser degree, of course).
2. Folks are assuming the Broncos putrid run defense from last year will once again be putrid. There are a few reasons to believe this may not be so:
--The defensive scheme has changed from a read and react, two-gap, run contain system to a one-gap, penetrating, show blitz system that is more instinctive and intuitive for Denver's personnel.
--Speaking of personnel, the Broncos have had a lot of turnover on the defensive side of this ball this offseason. These changes are serious unknowns at this point, but overall the signs point to an improved talent level across the board. DT Robertson, an emerging DT Thomas, LB D.J. Williams moving back to his natual position, and more experience/speed at the S slots are all additions/improvements to the players on the field.
--Last year's run defense was horrible, both in the preseason and the regular season. This year, there are at least signs of improvement, with a much more respectable defensive showing against solid running teams like Dallas and Green Bay, as well as average squads like Houston and Arizona. Yes its the preseason so you take it with a huge rock of salt, but its positive nonetheless
3. The Raiders appear to have no passing game. I honestly don't even know who their starting receivers will be. Add in Jamarcus Russell, who is essentially a rookie, and factor in the Broncos above average cornerbacks, and you have a situation where the Broncos know whats going to come at them---the running game. I wouldn't be surprised at all for Oakland to try to go 65% rush to 35% pass, if the game situation allows it. If the Marshall-less Broncos can secure an early lead and grow it throughout the game, the Raiders game plan will have to be altered. I don't necessarily see the game going that way, but given that various factors I've presented here, I wouldn't feel too solid about playing McFadden, and would feel much less so about starting Fargas.
:twocents:
1. I agree with the prevailing assumption that Oakland will pound the rock. This is good news for Run DMC, Fargas, and Bush (to a much lesser degree, of course).
2. Folks are assuming the Broncos putrid run defense from last year will once again be putrid. There are a few reasons to believe this may not be so:
--The defensive scheme has changed from a read and react, two-gap, run contain system to a one-gap, penetrating, show blitz system that is more instinctive and intuitive for Denver's personnel.
--Speaking of personnel, the Broncos have had a lot of turnover on the defensive side of this ball this offseason. These changes are serious unknowns at this point, but overall the signs point to an improved talent level across the board. DT Robertson, an emerging DT Thomas, LB D.J. Williams moving back to his natual position, and more experience/speed at the S slots are all additions/improvements to the players on the field.
--Last year's run defense was horrible, both in the preseason and the regular season. This year, there are at least signs of improvement, with a much more respectable defensive showing against solid running teams like Dallas and Green Bay, as well as average squads like Houston and Arizona. Yes its the preseason so you take it with a huge rock of salt, but its positive nonetheless
3. The Raiders appear to have no passing game. I honestly don't even know who their starting receivers will be. Add in Jamarcus Russell, who is essentially a rookie, and factor in the Broncos above average cornerbacks, and you have a situation where the Broncos know whats going to come at them---the running game. I wouldn't be surprised at all for Oakland to try to go 65% rush to 35% pass, if the game situation allows it. If the Marshall-less Broncos can secure an early lead and grow it throughout the game, the Raiders game plan will have to be altered. I don't necessarily see the game going that way, but given that various factors I've presented here, I wouldn't feel too solid about playing McFadden, and would feel much less so about starting Fargas.
:twocents:
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I did not realize they had already moved the Bills out to the West coast.Most West Coast team suffer teh consequences of the East coast trip. Seattle is no different. They will struggle in Buffalo. They need to exploit the hole created by the Peters holdout
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I'm thinking McFadden is going to have a huge night against the Broncos. I realize the Bronco run D should be better than last year, but it was awful last year, and the Raiders run the ball pretty well. I think Al's new toy is going to be highlighted plenty in his prime time debut.
I haven't done it yet, but I'm seriously tempted to put McFadden in for LJ this week (don't like LJ's matchup with the Pats).
I haven't done it yet, but I'm seriously tempted to put McFadden in for LJ this week (don't like LJ's matchup with the Pats).
NoFBinLA
Moderator
The 'Hawks have their own OLine issues to fret about --
massraider
Footballguy
I'm making this exact same move. I really think the Raiders will get him involved in the passing game early and often.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
MOP, enjoying the thread as usual; thanks bro.
As a Selvin Young pimper, do you see him cracking my starting lineup (for the year; this is not week to week advice!!!)?
I got him at 7.04 in a 12teamer last night as my RB3 after Grant and Turner (reached for the Hall handcuff later but didn't mind).
As of today, I think Grant will be RB1, Turner RB2 and Young the RB3, but curious about how you see Young versus these specific two guys.
As a Selvin Young pimper, do you see him cracking my starting lineup (for the year; this is not week to week advice!!!)?
I got him at 7.04 in a 12teamer last night as my RB3 after Grant and Turner (reached for the Hall handcuff later but didn't mind).
As of today, I think Grant will be RB1, Turner RB2 and Young the RB3, but curious about how you see Young versus these specific two guys.
I'm going to disagree on the Portis assessment and say that he is going to put up a top 3 RB performance tonight. The Giants have lost alot on defense and I think Zorn will exploit that on the ground.
I'll say the top 3RB performances in order will be LT, Bryan Westbrook and Clinton Portis or Frank Gore taking the 3 hole.
I'll say the top 3RB performances in order will be LT, Bryan Westbrook and Clinton Portis or Frank Gore taking the 3 hole.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Thanks Commish,Check your email
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I do think you got great value depending on your scoring and number of teams. Young is perfect behind thoise 2 as your RB3, but I think he will post at least RB2 numbers for the season.
Deuce'sWild
Footballguy
With the recent Rudi Johnson signing, how startable is Kevin Smith? I have read where Rudi will get some carries, but how many is the question nobody knows. Atlanta is a juicy matchup for the rook otherwise.
Normally I wouldn%t consider it, but I have Jamal Lewis pencilled in (very lightly), but he can%t seem to make it through a practice without limitation, and has a stellar offensive football team coming to town, which will make it hard to not be in catch-up mode....thus, not much running.
Any thoughts on this?
Normally I wouldn%t consider it, but I have Jamal Lewis pencilled in (very lightly), but he can%t seem to make it through a practice without limitation, and has a stellar offensive football team coming to town, which will make it hard to not be in catch-up mode....thus, not much running.
Any thoughts on this?
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eric rymer
Footballguy
good stuff as always MOP. Keep up the good work. 
GoBirds
Footballguy
Boss Spearman
Footballguy
I always look forward to your analysis. Thanks for the effort, MOP.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Greetings Shark Pool!!!
Myself and a few good friends from the FBG are in Vegas this weekend...WOW, if you have never been here for opening weekend, just incredible.
I am going to be bumoing these threads on Sunday Night so we can get together and discuss what we saw today.
Chris Johnson is every bit as talented as a lot of us first thought...Sammy Morris is going to play another vital role with the Pats...he might even be available on some WW...
I want to implore folks to not overreact to just one game...sure it was wonderful having Michael Turner today but as I highlighted, no Shaun Rodgers, no run stoppage for Detroit...might be the best game he has all season...probably could leverage him this week for guys that were taken in the 1st round if you want.
Steven Jackson faced a very tough Philly team...I told you guys that Philly is underrated and their defense is going to put a hurting on some people...case in point today. I liked Philly as a defense you could grab late in drafts, the point is the Shark needs to be trading for SJax...forget about Bulger, Holt, that will sort itself out, but SJax will get some easy games against the likes of AZ, SF, and Seattle so go get him quickly.
Please post any thoughts you have. I am never ashamed of what i write no matter how bad the predictions come out...I think this week I got a few right, a few wrong, just like most sites. I would have liked to have done a Sat update but I have been in Vegas and just having fun...I hope all of you did well, I know it can be really nerve grinding if things do not go as planned, but try and learn from what you saw today and recognize buying opps.
Myself and a few good friends from the FBG are in Vegas this weekend...WOW, if you have never been here for opening weekend, just incredible.
I am going to be bumoing these threads on Sunday Night so we can get together and discuss what we saw today.
Chris Johnson is every bit as talented as a lot of us first thought...Sammy Morris is going to play another vital role with the Pats...he might even be available on some WW...
I want to implore folks to not overreact to just one game...sure it was wonderful having Michael Turner today but as I highlighted, no Shaun Rodgers, no run stoppage for Detroit...might be the best game he has all season...probably could leverage him this week for guys that were taken in the 1st round if you want.
Steven Jackson faced a very tough Philly team...I told you guys that Philly is underrated and their defense is going to put a hurting on some people...case in point today. I liked Philly as a defense you could grab late in drafts, the point is the Shark needs to be trading for SJax...forget about Bulger, Holt, that will sort itself out, but SJax will get some easy games against the likes of AZ, SF, and Seattle so go get him quickly.
Please post any thoughts you have. I am never ashamed of what i write no matter how bad the predictions come out...I think this week I got a few right, a few wrong, just like most sites. I would have liked to have done a Sat update but I have been in Vegas and just having fun...I hope all of you did well, I know it can be really nerve grinding if things do not go as planned, but try and learn from what you saw today and recognize buying opps.
ScoobyDoo
Footballguy
MOP.
Thanks for the posting on SJax. As an owner that's exactly what I wanted to hear. As a Chris Johnson owner I'm real excited about that selection.
I also liked that Thomas Jones had a serviceable day. He was looking almost like a non-start on the cheatsheets but I stuck with him over Ricky Williams and was rewarded.
Thanks for the posting on SJax. As an owner that's exactly what I wanted to hear. As a Chris Johnson owner I'm real excited about that selection.
I also liked that Thomas Jones had a serviceable day. He was looking almost like a non-start on the cheatsheets but I stuck with him over Ricky Williams and was rewarded.
The Jacket
Footballguy
Nice call on Seattle/Buffalo. I got that one flat-out wrong. I'm still not sold on Buffalo, but certainly that's a solid start.
A
awesomeness
Guest
yah might be.....
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
MB III last I saw was having x-rays...might be cracked ribs...might not sideline him but I would invite you to really monitor this...I love Barber but I think a lot of RBs will do well in that system. not taking anything away from MB III, he is mucho talented, a baller, a beast, just feel that a lot of RBs will do well in Dallas...(Hint
on't fall asleep on Tashard Choice)
on't fall asleep on Tashard Choice)
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Any more thoughts on tonight's game?
Any thoughts about the Jags rush game with MJD grtting 3 carries and also the 3 interior OL(RG, LG, and C) are all out...the RG and LG might be gone for the season...
Any thoughts about the Jags rush game with MJD grtting 3 carries and also the 3 interior OL(RG, LG, and C) are all out...the RG and LG might be gone for the season...
NoFBinLA
Moderator
XRays were negative on the cracked ribs - might have hurt some cartilage and that could cause a lot of pain down the road but he'll keep on playing on some painkillers.Jags Oline is a HUGE problem - it will kill MJD and FT if they cannot get it in shape but injuries might be their downfall. Huge problem I'm not sure they can fix on the fly.Green Bay has it's own Oline problems right now - how will that affect Ryan Grant? We've seen a bunch of guys miss preseason and come out flatish (PManning, BEdwards most of the Chargers are examples) - did Ryan miss too much time? I wouldn't start him with that oline going against that D.AP should be pretty damned good tonight. They'll use him and Taylor to carry the offense while Jackson gets his feet under him again. How will DMac do in a real game? Will that OLine (another one I really dislike) give him room to move? Will he make things happen if they can't? If they blow Denver's run D off the map, what will that mean goign forward?I don't think they will, but I am interested to see how good that matchup for LT is next week.When does Andre Hall get on the field? Will it be Young between the 20s and Hall for short yardage and red zone? Who the heck do they pull out if someone gets hurt.I think Young has a decent game, McFadden gets inspired by Matt Forte and tries to one-up him, but might see too many split touches and troo much of his co-rbs. AP I think will do his thing and be a solid play while Grant will struggle due to oline issues and a lack pf preseason work.Thems my .02.MB III last I saw was having x-rays...might be cracked ribs...might not sideline him but I would invite you to really monitor this...I love Barber but I think a lot of RBs will do well in that system. not taking anything away from MB III, he is mucho talented, a baller, a beast, just feel that a lot of RBs will do well in Dallas...(Hint
A
awesomeness
Guest
How many teams it the NFL would Andre Hall start for? Who outside of the FF community and die hard Denver Broncos fans even know who he is? Young has a lot more gameexperience than Hall at the moment, I would expect them to still lean on Young.I see you went from not even mentioning Andre Hall in a writeup about Selvin Young, to saying that "Andre Hall will carry some of the load". May i ask the reason for the change
NoFBinLA
Moderator
Yes on 1 (thank goodness for garbage TDs), meh on 2 - he did see too many splits and got hurt(!) so I call it a wash. Yes on three and I guess whiff on the last.Eh, that ain't too bad.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hey Awesome...it's cool to try and prove a point sometimes with an emoticon, but certainly in this thread we like to encourage a little more thought and some explanation...can you elaborate some? If you watched the game, it does seem like a full blown RBBC...Pittman, Hall, Young all saw action...Young was introduced as the starter, he also was reading the intro, usually guys that are going to be called upon a lot are the ones that usually do that type of stuff for MNF. The game got out of hand, but even when it wasn't, there seemed to be a lot of folks getting carries.How many teams it the NFL would Andre Hall start for? Who outside of the FF community and die hard Denver Broncos fans even know who he is? Young has a lot more gameexperience than Hall at the moment, I would expect them to still lean on Young.I see you went from not even mentioning Andre Hall in a writeup about Selvin Young, to saying that "Andre Hall will carry some of the load". May i ask the reason for the change
Knight who says Ni
Footballguy
I'm looking forward to week 2 edition - specifically, I'm looking forward to hearing what you think about Forte. I sat the rookie on my bench against Indy because I wanted to gauge how well he does and damn, did he look impressive. I'm seriously thinking about starting him next week against Carolina ...
