RB Match ups to exploit/avoid week 4 (1 Viewer)

[NorvilleBarnes]

i may use these rankings ahead of the site's projections!

The smart thing to do would be to use these rankings, the sites projections and whatever else you could find.knowledge = king

However there is a laundry list of sites you should stay away from as they cloud the brain big time.

Can you elaborate on this laundry list? I'm always looking for as much FF info as possible and I'd hate to "cloud the brain" as you put it.

 

[blenderfrog]

Maybe you could make an exception for him? I'd be interested in seeing how you decide on starters. Setting my lineup each week is my least favorite part of the game.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

i may use these rankings ahead of the site's projections!

The smart thing to do would be to use these rankings, the sites projections and whatever else you could find.knowledge = king

However there is a laundry list of sites you should stay away from as they cloud the brain big time.

Can you elaborate on this laundry list? I'm always looking for as much FF info as possible and I'd hate to "cloud the brain" as you put it.

One website I looked at last week had Mike Vick as the #1 QB on the cheatsheet and basically said that he should keep duplicating his stats every week...that's awful!!! You gotta be blind to Vick's 50% completion rate and the energy the Saints would have coming into that game...also Vick is so up and down. One week you might get 24 and the next you get 7...he is like Plummer in that aspect and that's why they both get drafted within a round or 2 of each other.I'm not going to call out sites, if you PM me I can send you to a place that has a lot of free sites all with links...I'm sure you have heard it but I am not going to bash the websites in the SP.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

i may use these rankings ahead of the site's projections!

The smart thing to do would be to use these rankings, the sites projections and whatever else you could find.knowledge = king

However there is a laundry list of sites you should stay away from as they cloud the brain big time.

Can you elaborate on this laundry list? I'm always looking for as much FF info as possible and I'd hate to "cloud the brain" as you put it.

One website I looked at last week had Mike Vick as the #1 QB on the cheatsheet and basically said that he should keep duplicating his stats every week...that's awful!!! You gotta be blind to Vick's 50% completion rate and the energy the Saints would have coming into that game...also Vick is so up and down. One week you might get 24 and the next you get 7...he is like Plummer in that aspect and that's why they both get drafted within a round or 2 of each other.I'm not going to call out sites, if you PM me I can send you to a place that has a lot of free sites all with links...I'm sure you have heard it but I am not going to bash the websites in the SP.

I'm not asking you to bash anyone. You just mentioned that there were some we should stay away from - and I'd certainly like to do that. Anyway, PM sent.

 

[Octagon]

MoP>If I post my roster here can you help me set my lineup, at least at running back?

Why not send me a PM? The posting of rosters is frowned upon by many. THanks.

Maybe you could make an exception for him? I'd be interested in seeing how you decide on starters. Setting my lineup each week is my least favorite part of the game.

Standard Scoring (12 man league)QB(Start 1)VickVolekCutlerRB(Start 2)TomlinsonLaurence MaroneyCedric BensonMichael RobinsonWR(Start 3)Chad JohnsonRandy MossRoy WilliamsDavid KircusJustin McCarreinsBobby EngramDavid TerrellTE(Start 1)Todd HeapLeonard PopePKKasayDefBaltimoreSan FranciscoI'm having problems with this week's matchups. I'm thinking about benching LaDainian Tomlinson because of his bad matchup and starting Michael Robinson because he scored 2 touchdowns last week.I'm really struggling with making decisions at every position but place kicker and that's only because I don't have two, lol.

 

[SickThing]

MoP>If I post my roster here can you help me set my lineup, at least at running back?

Why not send me a PM? The posting of rosters is frowned upon by many. THanks.

Maybe you could make an exception for him? I'd be interested in seeing how you decide on starters. Setting my lineup each week is my least favorite part of the game.

I'd be interested in seeing people state they'd like to see that stuff stay in the Assistant Coach where it belongs.

 

[L_O_D]

MOMO

I've had enough of this nickname.

Amen to that brother

 

[Church of Iggy Pop]

Great work as always, MoP.

I consider this thread a must-read each week.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great work as always, MoP.I consider this thread a must-read each week.

Thanks John

 

[thecardiackid]

Great work as always, MoP.I consider this thread a must-read each week.

Strong work MoP

 

[Usual21]

I look forward to this every week. GREAT JOB.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thanks Cardiac, Usual, everyone on page 1...appreciate it guys.

 

[Jimmy Johnson's Hairdresser]

Willis McGahee: Not a terrific match up for McGahee…probably another ho hum game form him this weekend where he looks OK racking up 75 yds on the ground but has challenges getting in the end zone…I look for the Vikes to shut down most of the Buffalo offense. Buffalo is avg 4.3 ypc btw. But it won’t show this week.

Week 1 = 70 yards

Week 2 = 91 yards

Week 3 = 150 yards

103 yards a game.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Willis McGahee: Not a terrific match up for McGahee…probably another ho hum game form him this weekend where he looks OK racking up 75 yds on the ground but has challenges getting in the end zone…I look for the Vikes to shut down most of the Buffalo offense. Buffalo is avg 4.3 ypc btw. But it won’t show this week.

Week 1 = 70 yards

Week 2 = 91 yards

Week 3 = 150 yards

103 yards a game.

Just what we're looking for. Stats to back a post...good job.Now I have a question for you? Do you happen to own McGahee?

Going back to last season he has avg right around 78 yds a game rushing...not total but rushing...and he has 5 TDs over his past 19 games...so my statement is not that far off.

 

[Jimmy Johnson's Hairdresser]

Rudi Johnson: Rudi is a stud and will get his yds and points on Sundays.

Just like last week?47 yards on 19 carries & 0 TDsFred Taylor looked better against the Steelers more so than Rudi. Rudi racked up his points against KC and Cleveland. I'm not 100% sold at this point.

 

[Jimmy Johnson's Hairdresser]

Willis McGahee: Not a terrific match up for McGahee…probably another ho hum game form him this weekend where he looks OK racking up 75 yds on the ground but has challenges getting in the end zone…I look for the Vikes to shut down most of the Buffalo offense. Buffalo is avg 4.3 ypc btw. But it won’t show this week.

Week 1 = 70 yards

Week 2 = 91 yards

Week 3 = 150 yards

103 yards a game.

Just what we're looking for. Stats to back a post...good job.Now I have a question for you? Do you happen to own McGahee?

Going back to last season he has avg right around 78 yds a game rushing...not total but rushing...and he has 5 TDs over his past 19 games...so my statement is not that far off.

Great banter here....this is why I love this place. I think there is a chance the Buffalo offense to keep improving with Evans and McGahee being the main beneficiaries. I do agree that he needs more TDs to get to the next level.

p.s. I own him in one of my 4 leagues.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Hi MOP - echoing everyone else, great stuff here. I wanted to discuss your assessment of Ahman Green and his match up this week:

Ahman Green: Fairly tough match up. I look for GB to get waxed in this game so I don’t expect much from Green in this game.

Personally, I'm quite pleased with how Green has performed so far, even without consistent opportunities to produce on the ground. More than a 1/3 of Green's total yardage right now is receiving yards, and his only TD was a reception, not a rush. Green is also 34th overall in the NFL in targets (not by position - overall), tied with Darrell Jackson, Jericho Cotchery, and ahead of Tiki Barber and Brian Westbrook.So, even though Green Bay will most likely be in a shootout this week, I think that Green can still be a factor...even last week, his highest scoring game, was a shootout with New Orleans (GB lead in the first half, but Green did most of his damage later).Thoughts?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Rudi Johnson: Rudi is a stud and will get his yds and points on Sundays.

Just like last week?47 yards on 19 carries & 0 TDsFred Taylor looked better against the Steelers more so than Rudi. Rudi racked up his points against KC and Cleveland. I'm not 100% sold at this point.

Rudi had a stinker for sure last week...however in that high powered offense you have to put him on the field. To me, he was a 1st round pick, 2 out of his 3 games were good to very good...I just wanted to keep him in the must start part of the program, but you have a good point...if he lays an egg against NE then we might have to re-examine.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Hi MOP - echoing everyone else, great stuff here. I wanted to discuss your assessment of Ahman Green and his match up this week:

Ahman Green: Fairly tough match up. I look for GB to get waxed in this game so I don’t expect much from Green in this game.

Personally, I'm quite pleased with how Green has performed so far, even without consistent opportunities to produce on the ground. More than a 1/3 of Green's total yardage right now is receiving yards, and his only TD was a reception, not a rush. Green is also 34th overall in the NFL in targets (not by position - overall), tied with Darrell Jackson, Jericho Cotchery, and ahead of Tiki Barber and Brian Westbrook.So, even though Green Bay will most likely be in a shootout this week, I think that Green can still be a factor...even last week, his highest scoring game, was a shootout with New Orleans (GB lead in the first half, but Green did most of his damage later).Thoughts?

Right, and the reason his yards are coming via air is because the OL is not opening a lot of holes for the running game. Receiving yds for RB are hard to really gauge week to week.Here are his per game avg since he came to GB:'00...35 yds'01...37 yds'02...28 yds'03...23 yds'04...18 yds'05...injured'06...46 yds...on pace for a career high of 736 yds rec for the season...what are the odds he keeps up that pace?You can see his receiving numbers dipping on a yearly basis ove the past 5 or 6 years...the likelihood he can keep it up is slim...if I just trust the law of large numbers I know he will start posting some low totals over his next several games. I would be shopping Green.

 

[wannabee]

thanks for the hard work putting this together

 

[Verminard]

Real quick on Portis. I fully expect him to be slowed vs Jack as they have one of the best front 7s in all of football. It's games like this where we will see why Saunders makes a difference though. If he is held in check that much on the ground, I expect to see him used inthe passing game to counter it.

This is a great overall thread, I agree with this statement 100%, Ripping 86 yards and a TD against Houston does not mean anything. I think you will continue to see Betts get carries until Portis is absolutely fully recovered, Washington will not chance him getting reinjured against a very rough defense this weekend. I would have Portis even lower than where he is currently listed.

 

[Verminard]

Right, and the reason his yards are coming via air is because the OL is not opening a lot of holes for the running game. Receiving yds for RB are hard to really gauge week to week.

Here are his per game avg since he came to GB:

'00...35 yds

'01...37 yds

'02...28 yds

'03...23 yds

'04...18 yds

'05...injured

'06...46 yds...on pace for a career high of 736 yds rec for the season...what are the odds he keeps up that pace?

You can see his receiving numbers dipping on a yearly basis ove the past 5 or 6 years...the likelihood he can keep it up is slim...if I just trust the law of large numbers I know he will start posting some low totals over his next several games. I would be shopping Green.

Greenbay of '00-'04 is not the same team as '05-'06, They are alot worse. So yes I expect Green to continue to be a major factor in the passing game at the expense of his rushing stats, I have a feeling that GB will not have to many big lead games this year and for the most part will be playing catch up = Favre passing all day = More receptions for Green. I dont think 700 recieving yards is Ridiculous for him to achieve, You cant effectively compare his stats from '01-'04 to what will happen this year, They are no where close to the same team they used to be.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Right, and the reason his yards are coming via air is because the OL is not opening a lot of holes for the running game. Receiving yds for RB are hard to really gauge week to week.

Here are his per game avg since he came to GB:

'00...35 yds

'01...37 yds

'02...28 yds

'03...23 yds

'04...18 yds

'05...injured

'06...46 yds...on pace for a career high of 736 yds rec for the season...what are the odds he keeps up that pace?

You can see his receiving numbers dipping on a yearly basis ove the past 5 or 6 years...the likelihood he can keep it up is slim...if I just trust the law of large numbers I know he will start posting some low totals over his next several games. I would be shopping Green.

Greenbay of '00-'04 is not the same team as '05-'06, They are alot worse. So yes I expect Green to continue to be a major factor in the passing game at the expense of his rushing stats, I have a feeling that GB will not have to many big lead games this year and for the most part will be playing catch up = Favre passing all day = More receptions for Green. I dont think 700 recieving yards is Ridiculous for him to achieve, You cant effectively compare his stats from '01-'04 to what will happen this year, They are no where close to the same team they used to be.

Good point you bring up...but I also think that playing from behind, they will need to make plays to Driver and Jennings...dumping off to Green is not going to win the game. I think Green had 8 catches last week due largely to the fact they were in the game or ahead...dumping off to him is as good as a run.

Maybe he can finish with 700 yds receivng for the season.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I have a hard time believing DeShaun Foster is going to out-perform Maurice Morris.

I do realize Morris is VS the Bears, but Seattle will have moderate success.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I have a hard time believing DeShaun Foster is going to out-perform Maurice Morris.I do realize Morris is VS the Bears, but Seattle will have moderate success.

I'd start Foster over Morris if both were on my team. I see this as a huge let-down game for the Saints.

 

[jurb26]

I have a hard time believing DeShaun Foster is going to out-perform Maurice Morris.I do realize Morris is VS the Bears, but Seattle will have moderate success.

I'd start Foster over Morris if both were on my team. I see this as a huge let-down game for the Saints.

Will Morris have any competition for carries?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have a hard time believing DeShaun Foster is going to out-perform Maurice Morris.I do realize Morris is VS the Bears, but Seattle will have moderate success.

I'd start Foster over Morris if both were on my team. I see this as a huge let-down game for the Saints.

Will Morris have any competition for carries?

Good question Jurb but DeSahun had 20 carries last week and DeAngelo had 4, so I'm not sure he is losing carries. he struggled against the Vikes so Fox inserted his rookie to shake things up and then blew the game himself...I think Fox is looking for wins right now and is going to keep it close to the vest with Foster right now.However I don't like the Panthers this weekend all that much.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I have a hard time believing DeShaun Foster is going to out-perform Maurice Morris.I do realize Morris is VS the Bears, but Seattle will have moderate success.

I'd start Foster over Morris if both were on my team. I see this as a huge let-down game for the Saints.

Will Morris have any competition for carries?

I think Fox showed a lot of confidence in Foster last week. Foster fumbled, and Fox went right back to Foster. I do think DeAngelo is a better RB, and I do not own Foster in any of my leagues. I'm just saying that I don't see Morris stepping right in and having a good game vs. Chicago.

 

[Rogi]

I think Marion Barber will make a great start in a Flex position this week against Tennessee. It won't be all about Julius, although I agree JJ will be a great start too.

I agree. J. Jones will put up yards. The problem is in the last Cowboys' game Marion Barber got the goal line carries. This could hurt J. Jones fantasy value.

 

[walkwithme]

Ahman Green I feel is a fair start this week. He may not get his rushing yards but he will get the receiving yards. I am looking for ~70 yards total and a score. My options are S. Jackson J. Lewis , A Green, R. Droughns with the option to start 3 of these guys but I will most likely go with Jackson and Green.

 

[Kleck]

Here's how MoMo has done when given 8 or more carries (arbitrary but he has a very limited data set):

2002 - AZ - 15 for 72 (4.8 YPC)

2003 - AZ - 11 for 67 (6.1 YPC)

2004 - SF - 8 for 42 (5.2 YPC)

2005 - AZ - 11 for 4 (0.4 YPC)

2005 - HOU - 8 for 104 (13.0 YPC)

2005 - PHI - 15 for 33 (2.2 YPC)

2005 - IND - 9 for 34 (3.8 YPC)

2005 - GB - 9 for 25 (2.8 YPC)

2006 - NYG - 15 for 18 (1.2 YPC)

Basically he has been all over the place so it's hard to figure him out. I personally wouldn't start him considering that SA has only averaged 2.9 YPC this year himself and now they are going on the road at Chicago.

I responded to a similar post in another thread. Might be easy to find with a search. Several of these games were situations where Seattle was absolutely destroying an opponent and Morris was slammed into the line of scrimmage time and time again to burn the clock in the fourth quarter.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Excellent Match Ups

Julius Jones

Ronnie Brown

Larry Johnson

Good Match Ups

Warrick Dunn

Dominic Rhodes

Kevan Barlow

Chester Taylor

Frank Gore

Kevin Jones

Laurence Maroney

Brian Westbrook

Average Match Ups

Willis McGahee

Deuce McAllister

Reggie Bush

DeShaun Foster

Cleve RB

Lamont Jordan

Fred Taylor

Rudi Johnson

Maurice Morris

Tough Match Ups

Edge

Travis Henry

LT

Jamal Lewis

SJax

Clinton Portis

Thomas Jones

Ahman Green

Green is as good or better then we hoped

Blue is acceptable

Red is below or just as bad as we thought

Ministry of Pain Cheatsheet

1-Larry Johnson...30

2-Brian Westbrook…MNF

3-Rudi Johnson...15

4-Julius Jones...18

5-LaDainian Tomlinson...10

6-Ronnie Brown...19, PPR

7-Laurence Maroney...30

8-Chester Taylor...3

9-Warrick Dunn...6

10-Clinton Portis...20

11-Kevin Jones...20 or 26, PPR

12-Frank Gore...8

13-Dominic Rhodes...13

14-Deuce McAllister...10

15-Willis McGahee...14

16-Edge...12, PPR

17-Steven Jackson...20 or 26, PPR

18-Lamont Jordan...20

19-Reggie Bush...11, PPR

20-DeShaun Foster...17

21-Kevan Barlow...15

22-Ahman Green...MNF

23-Fred Taylor...2

24-Jamal Lewis...3

25-Maurice Morris...3

26-Thomas Jones...25

27-Cleve RB...Reben had 15, PPR

28-Travis Henry...Inactive

29-Ron Dayne...5

Let's have a look. LJ, JJ, KJ, and Maroney really came thru well in the top of the sheets this week.

SJAX, Jordan, and THomas Jones really helped out their owners this week with a lot of points.

CHester Taylor, Dunn, and Gore were pretty disappointing. LT didn't do a lot of damage but he grinded out 100 yds against the Ravens. Fred Taylor, Jamal, and Momo were all potholes in the bottom half this week.