RB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid Week 7 (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

MoP.. How do you feel about Kenny Watson this week with Rudi Johnson listed as inactive? What kind of numbers can we expect?

Sorry but I don't do projections

 

[Ministry of Pain]

how many games has it been that Portis ran for 100+ yards? It has been 11 games. It was week four in 2006 against Jacksonville. Portis is 0 for 5 in 2007 for 100+. In 2006, he was 1 for 8 games over 100+. I am not saying Clinton Portis will not eclipse the 100 rushing yard mark, but it has not been easy for him in the recent past.

Can I get an Amen?

As usual - excellent post MOP ... and Jeff, your input is always appreciated on my part... but I have to respectfully disagree with you guys on that one...(disclaimer - I own Portis in one dynasty league - but I will do my best to keep the rose glasses away here)...

First of all, I do think that the vast majority of FF league account for receiving yards also... and looking at the yards from scrimmage CP has gone over 90 in 4 of the last 7 games (not that much we might say - but we can't disregard him for not getting some good yardage week-in / week-out)...

Also, in that active 10 game span where Portis has not run for 100yds - he only had 2 games of 20 or more carries.. and lately (all of '07 for that matter) - his carries total are: 17, 17, 14, 18 and 20... I like the trend I see here - we made sure that Betts was out of the picture (6, 7, 8 and 3 carries) - so the RBBC we all were afraid of at the start of the season is out of the picture...

Finally, we can't also disregard the TDs / redzone looks in considering if Portis is a good start this week or not (or for that matter - any week!)... Portis has had 12 rz looks this year (Betts-7, Sellers-4, Cartwright-2)... and CP has scored 7 TDs in his last 9 games - surely not LTlike - but not totals that should make you turn your head on the guy... (I know that this was not part of the discussion earlier - just needed to point it out)

I think that Portis is victim of his early years production in Denver - when everyone thinks a 1700/11 season is not that great ('05 in Wsh)... he was in FF heaven back then - he's still a great young (26) RB... and a good buy-low candidate for that matter... because I really love the trend that I see in the past few weeks (which was probably helped by Gibbs dumb call at the end of the Giants game)...

My 2 cents (sorry - this went overboard - considering you guys were talking about him getting 100yds...)

It is all good. I like the discussion. I was just responding to those that think that Portis getting 100+ rushing yards is a cinch. When I wantched Portis last week against the Packers, he seemed tentative and did not hit the hole with the force that I am accustomed to seeing from him. He just seems to lack the exclosion he once had. When looking at how many carries it takes/took Portis to get 100+ rushing yards, it is difficult for me to compare this year versus last, etc. When he was in Denver, Portis ran for more yards on less carries than he has in Washington. And, he seems to have lost a step. Through five games, his longest run was for 19 yards. The 2004 season was the last time Clinton Portis broke a run for over 50 yards. I remember him doing that feat fairly regularly in the past. I know the Packers are a strong defense, but Portis had 20 carries last week ... for 64 rushing yards. Yes, he added decent receiving yards, but Portis is not the runner he used to be, imo. Also, is anyone else worried about the fumbles? Portis has fumbled three times in the last two games, losing two.

apologies to MOP for the hijack ...

JT, you're free to hijack my threads anytime...and I don't consider it a hijack, it seems people are hot on Portis this week...I certainly opened up a can of worms with my "muzzled" analysis...I knew what i was doing though. Certainly has sparked some debate.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

MoP.. How do you feel about Kenny Watson this week with Rudi Johnson listed as inactive? What kind of numbers can we expect?

Sorry but I don't do projections

 

[Ocho Cinco]

MoP.. How do you feel about Kenny Watson this week with Rudi Johnson listed as inactive? What kind of numbers can we expect?

Sorry but I don't do projections

Ok then..The Jets can be passed on as well as run on, do you think the Bengals will just exploit their secondary all day or will they try and pound the ball with Watson?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MoP.. How do you feel about Kenny Watson this week with Rudi Johnson listed as inactive? What kind of numbers can we expect?

Sorry but I don't do projections

Ok then..The Jets can be passed on as well as run on, do you think the Bengals will just exploit their secondary all day or will they try and pound the ball with Watson?

Should have some short fields to pop one in. I always look at those prolific passig attacks leading to some short 1 and 2 yd plunges for the RB.

 

[Rovers]

Great read as always, MoP!

No way I bench Peterson, even against Dallas, or hypothetically vs. the Pats. The reason is simple. He can blow up on any given play and take it to the house for 50+ yards against any team. That explosiveness makes him unbenchable, regardless of matchup. Here is another thought.... I agree Dallas will come out looking to take heads off. That isn't always the best thing for a defense that already has a tendency to over persue. Dallas may shut him down most of the time, but if there is an RB in the NFL that can break off long runs better than Peterson, I need to know who.

Keep up the great work!

 

[Judge Smails]

Great job MOP. I am seriously thinking of starting MJD over Addai (other starter is Parker) - you're assessment matches mine - so hopefully we're both right!

 

[PACKER 7]

Jerious Norwood: Great that he had that long run this past week. Not much else happened…I wouldn’t expect him to repeat this week. In fact I expect Warrick Dunn to end up with more carries again this week. If Norwood can start getting 12-15 carries minimum or 15+ touches with receptions then we can start taking him seriously. Otherwise he is simply not a starting RB…how many people really played him last week? A few because of bye weeks but seriously not many.

Great MOP as usual. As you may remember I was riding the Dunn train early in the season, not as RB 2, but as Flex play. I know last week was really only one big play for Norwood, but there might be need for a little concern. I think really Norwood hasn't been playing b/c of his lack of pass protection skills. Now that could mean that b/c Leftwich is so much slower than Joey that Dunn sees the field even more, but Norwood has at least shown hit can hit the homerun play. I'm thinking that Petrino, pass protection or not, is getting ready to try just about anything to win. That includes Norwood getting more touches. So in non-ppr leagues it might be time to part ways with Dunn in favor of a guy like Chester Taylor (splitting time guys, I mean).

I still think Dunn is a good player, but for some reason (hate to say this, but maybe Vick is gone) he just hasn't done a whole lot with his touches of late. First of the season he was producing well as a RB3. He is quickly sliding to RB4 territory and even RB5 territory if Leftwich doesn't do something to take the heat off of the running game.

Thoughts?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great read as always, MoP! No way I bench Peterson, even against Dallas, or hypothetically vs. the Pats. The reason is simple. He can blow up on any given play and take it to the house for 50+ yards against any team. That explosiveness makes him unbenchable, regardless of matchup. Here is another thought.... I agree Dallas will come out looking to take heads off. That isn't always the best thing for a defense that already has a tendency to over persue. Dallas may shut him down most of the time, but if there is an RB in the NFL that can break off long runs better than Peterson, I need to know who. Keep up the great work!

Thanks Rovers. Understand that I am not saying bench ADP, just that I think he will have some challenges this week. I love ADP in general, own him in a lot of leagues...but everyone is saying he's a great start...in fact I would commend FBG for not chasing his points last week in their weekly cheatsheets...I believe he is slightly outside of their top10. Appreciate your input Rovers, thanks.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jerious Norwood: Great that he had that long run this past week. Not much else happened…I wouldn’t expect him to repeat this week. In fact I expect Warrick Dunn to end up with more carries again this week. If Norwood can start getting 12-15 carries minimum or 15+ touches with receptions then we can start taking him seriously. Otherwise he is simply not a starting RB…how many people really played him last week? A few because of bye weeks but seriously not many.

Great MOP as usual. As you may remember I was riding the Dunn train early in the season, not as RB 2, but as Flex play. I know last week was really only one big play for Norwood, but there might be need for a little concern. I think really Norwood hasn't been playing b/c of his lack of pass protection skills. Now that could mean that b/c Leftwich is so much slower than Joey that Dunn sees the field even more, but Norwood has at least shown hit can hit the homerun play. I'm thinking that Petrino, pass protection or not, is getting ready to try just about anything to win. That includes Norwood getting more touches. So in non-ppr leagues it might be time to part ways with Dunn in favor of a guy like Chester Taylor (splitting time guys, I mean).

I still think Dunn is a good player, but for some reason (hate to say this, but maybe Vick is gone) he just hasn't done a whole lot with his touches of late. First of the season he was producing well as a RB3. He is quickly sliding to RB4 territory and even RB5 territory if Leftwich doesn't do something to take the heat off of the running game.

Thoughts?

I think Petrino, after he lets Byron take over the offense that he will next start to play Jerious Norwood a little more. Falcons are not going anywhere this year and DUnn is 32 IIRC...in his last year of a contract and I doubt he is back next seson. Dunn has done little to nothing and I think it's time for them to try Norwood to the tune of 15-20 touches minimum a game and just see what happens...what have they got to lose?

 

[Enforcer]

Shaun will have a good day on Sunday.

Bumping this for two reasons.1. I think MOP was correct that Alexander should have had a solid day. I was wrong and his analysis was correct.2. Alexander had a bad day because of Alexander. He's getting slow and the only word that comes to mind is plodder. I can't remember the last time I saw him break a tackle. Even one. I think we'll start to see more of Morris. Holmgren has no other choice. Also, Seattle was on the goal line twice and both times ran a sprint out for Hasselbeck and he tossed a short touchdown to TE Will Heller on both occasions. I'm not sure Morris is a great option, but he did make a nice cutback yesterday on the best running play of the day for the Seahawks. It was something I don't think Alexander is capable of anymore. Lastly, I remember a time when it was an automatic Alexander TD at the goal line. Those days appear to be over.