duaneok66
Footballguy
check back in a month.
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RB Montario Hardesty (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
loose circuits
Footballguy
If u do that it could be tOo late cause he will increase in value if they wait on a rb. Then again If they draft a 3rd or 4th rounder his value may even drop a tad although I think most people Are assuming he is gonna have some competition
loose circuits
Footballguy
Yes, they will bring in someone at some point. Does that mean that player is a nfl starter out of the gate? With ogb, bjax, and armond smith on the roster they have some guys that can be serviceable. Could they choose to address other positions early? I think it is possible, but I'm not gonna pretend to know one way or the other. Right now hardesty can be bought cheap- like a 3rd and that could pay dividends'duaneok66 said:
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beer 30
Footballguy
He won't. Gonna bet he doesn't play in 6 games this year. Great talent, can't stay on the field..
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
So what do you do if you think the Browns take Richardson and you own Hardesty; hold him and have Trent's handcuff or deal him now while he has some value?
Max Power
Footballguy
Hold him on hopes the Browns screw this up. Don't tell me you can't see it happening.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
In other news, water is wet and ice is cold.
duaneok66
Footballguy
was directed to Bronx Bomber who suggested that Hardesty was a hold even after a possible draft pick of Richardson.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
My bad. Let me try this again. Im looking at two possible scenarios and trying to figure out the best move. 1) If the Browns draft Richardson that makes Hardesty a potential handcuff if you own both the 1.01 and him. But his value is increased right now since there is not much competition. Most people know they will draft someone so its a question of A) trading Hardesty now before the draft and get whatever you can for him or B)hold him (or trade him to Richardson owner) and have him be a handcuff if they draft Trent. 2) The Browns take a RB later in the draft(someone other than Miller, Martin, Wilson): this might give Hardesty a chance to compete if he is finally healthy and give him some fantasy relevance. So my question is what is the best play right now(before the draft) to hold him and have the upside of the second scenario (whatever it may be) or trade him now while he has at least "some" value assuming they take Richardson and then he has no value other than a potential handcuff. It may be that everyone is scared to trade for him, using the same logic, but there seems to be some hopeful buyers by the looks of this thread. Thats all I was getting at. Im not suggesting he has any value if Richardson is there. Im just trying to figure out if there is more value/upside in 1a)trading him now or 2)hold and hope they draft someone that might give him a chance to compete.
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duaneok66
Footballguy
I think he is worth little right now. Why, because there is like a ZERO percent chance that they don't draft a back to come in and compete for the starting job. Even if it's not Trent, I think they will get a back with #22 or one before the fourth round. If you can find someone to bite now, then now is the time - i think he will be clearance bin fodder in four weeks.
loose circuits
Footballguy
everyone thinks like you duaneok which is why he can be bought cheap now. This would be the time just in case they don't acquire someone significant. I guess it depends on your league, but I couldn't even sell him for a future 2nd or a 3rd this year. That is not a good price to sell even a 2nd string RB which is what I realized after thinking similar to what you have been. I'm not sure what you consider clearance bin fodder is for your league (shallow?), but even most 3rd string backs are owned in my leagues (12X30 non-IDP)
It also depends significantly on who they draft. If it is Martin or T Rich then I agree Hardesty will likely be headed for a complimentary role. I disagree that Wilson or Miller would make him expendable. The book on them is they aren't complete backs at this point, they both have significant areas of improvement, so Hardesty would have a chance to keep his role with them getting mixed in, but it would be Montario's job to lose while those rookies work to get better. Montario would need to take the job, perform, and stay healthy. In which case, buying at the price he can go for in some leagues is a great deal if you only pay a 3rd round pick or 2013 2nd or whatever. He can be useful. The other option is that they draft someone later in which case obviously it is Montario's job to lose in which case you got a bargain if you acquire him now.
The bottom-line is if you need RB depth, you could do worse then grab Montario. I guess I should have qualified myself for those Ogb fans since he can be had even cheaper. Grab the tandem and hope for the best, the investment isn't very high
It also depends significantly on who they draft. If it is Martin or T Rich then I agree Hardesty will likely be headed for a complimentary role. I disagree that Wilson or Miller would make him expendable. The book on them is they aren't complete backs at this point, they both have significant areas of improvement, so Hardesty would have a chance to keep his role with them getting mixed in, but it would be Montario's job to lose while those rookies work to get better. Montario would need to take the job, perform, and stay healthy. In which case, buying at the price he can go for in some leagues is a great deal if you only pay a 3rd round pick or 2013 2nd or whatever. He can be useful. The other option is that they draft someone later in which case obviously it is Montario's job to lose in which case you got a bargain if you acquire him now.
The bottom-line is if you need RB depth, you could do worse then grab Montario. I guess I should have qualified myself for those Ogb fans since he can be had even cheaper. Grab the tandem and hope for the best, the investment isn't very high
Geekjock
Footballguy
Double-true. I'm 100% in the same camp as this post.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
There are still a couple of verteran FAs out there that have shown more than Hardesty has - Benson, Grant, Addai to name a few. While those names might not be sexy, and seem at best uninspiring, they have all shown (even last season) to be more effective backs than Hardesty has shown to be with his opportunities last season while healthy.
loose circuits
Footballguy
When was Haresty healthy last year? He had a torn calf muscle most of the season and at the beginning of the year was still recovering from a torn ACL because he wasn't allowed to rehab at the facility. This year will be the 1st year he is completely healthy.There is a reason all those guys are still on the market Doc. You know it and I know it. I'm not even sure they are any better than Ogb at this point, nor do I think they will be anything other than injury fill-ins for teams. Maybe Addai would make a good 3rd down back, but Grant and Benson are all but toast. A team like Cleveland doesn't need to set itself back by relying on a washed up RB.
MAC_32
Footballguy
The Seattle game. When he ran into a brick wall 33 times in a row for 2-3 yards/pop. I remember a few spin moves, because that's the only move he knows. And other than that, just straight into the line. No vision. Just run. It's also what he's done every other time he has gotten carries. Healthy or not healthy.Disregarding his injury history, if you have no vision and one crappy spin move you're not a good NFL RB. If we don't take Richardson, sell him for whatever you can get. If we get Richardson just drop him. He sucks.'loose circuits said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The games he played in?'loose circuits said:
Grant and Benson are close to the end, but bottom line is they looked far better than Hardesty did last season. Not sure how a team "sets itself back" by starting the better player. If they don't see anything in Hardesty, then they set themselves back just as much by trotting him out there. NFL HCs and GMs have short shelf lives. Generally they're more concerned with winning then trying to develop players.I know you're trying hard to sell Hardesty - but my point is that there are many directions the Cleveland backfield can take right now. Just like it's not a given that Cleveland drafts Richardson or that a second round back beats out Hardesty, its also not a given that if "they draft someone later...obviously it is Montario's job to lose".
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loose circuits
Footballguy
Don't most people say it takes at least another year removed from ACL injury to completely recover...I don't think you can say that he played in games so he was "completely healthy" Grant and Benson also had a far better supporting cast playing for Green Bay and Cincy. Cleveland's passing game was a joke last year.I'm not trying to sell Hardesty anymore. If you believe that you obviously aren't reading this thread as I have said he's a buy over and over. I'm holding and going to see what happens.The games he played in?'loose circuits said:
I know you're trying hard to sell Hardesty - but my point is that there are many directions the Cleveland backfield can take right now. Just like it's not a given that Cleveland drafts Richardson or that a second round back beats out Hardesty, its also not a given that if "they draft someone later...obviously it is Montario's job to lose".
If the front office was worried about the running game, why wouldn't they be working out RB's or looking at signing guys? Why have they sat on their hands? Did you hear of them working out Bush, Tolbert, or any of your washed up vets? Maybe they want to wait for the draft to sort it all out, but if Hardesty wasn't in their plans why would both the coach and GM say that they were excited to see what he could do with a healthy off season? Why have they not even found an insurance policy?
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MAC_32
Footballguy
So far they have brought in Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, and (gulp) David Wilson - we're taking a RB before round 3, probably by pick 36. The fact that they didn't bring in, and over pay for a washed up vet doesn't really mean much. The belief is that some combo of Brandon Jackson, Chris Ogbonayya, and Montario Hardesty will fill out the depth chart and compete for complimentary snaps to whatever rookie is drafted to be the new starter. Over paying for a washed up vet a la Rueuben Droughns, Jamal Lewis, etc. doesn't work.
loose circuits
Footballguy
I understand what the belief is, and that is why Hardesty is going for peanuts. However, DO you think Miller and Wilson are NFL ready backs? I think they both have some major upside, but are raw with plenty of holes that will be exposed if the team tries to lean on them too much early. Can they afford to have Wilson cough up the ball?Last part is exactly what I meant when I said signing a veteran would set the team back. They've done that enough and have nothing to show for it...
MAC_32
Footballguy
Wilson scares the crap out of me. He is an impressive athlete, but his spotty play on the field plummets him down my rankings.Miller and Martin? Yes. I think the top 3 backs in this class would be the #1 back in any of the last 3 classes. I think they're all worth round 1 picks, which I haven't thought of any back since 2008.
Even if they only become 50% of what I think they are capable of they will still be better than Spins.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
If you are looking to buy Hardesty, wait until after the draft. His price will go down.
Wish I could. Out of the blue got an offer of Hardesty, 2.9, and 2.10 for the 1.10 pick. This isn't the coaches forum, so I'm not lookin for advice...but it made me pause a long time...sitll haven't decided. On most value charts I've seen, the 2.9 and 2.10 picks are worth about the samae or slightly more than the 1.10, making Hardesty pretty darn cheap. Can he go down any further?????!!!!Wierd thing is...the guy has the 1.1 pick.
Max Power
Footballguy
Its shocking how low his value is. I have him in two leagues and can't move him for more than a late draft pick. He is worth more than that in my eyes. I find it interesting that people are willing to use mid second round picks on long shot RBs, but Hardesty isn't even considered at that price. He wasn't impressive when he was on the field, but as a RB who has been with the team, I think its his job to lose. Unless they draft Richardson.
I think his value will go UP after the draft. It has to. Either he will be in a RBBC, or a handcuff to T.Rich.
I think his value will go UP after the draft. It has to. Either he will be in a RBBC, or a handcuff to T.Rich.
Max Power
Footballguy
I'll give the guy a chance. He has 88 career carries and never had a full training camp under his belt. I think its foolish to think he CANT improve. He might not and be out of the league in a year, but I'll roll the dice with him rather than what I can get for the guy in return.
Boone22
Footballguy
He made me the same exact offer for the 1.09. I turned him down without even thinking about it. I just don't see the value. I think there's big drop in talent from 1.09 or 1.10 all the way to the end of the second. And as soon as Cleveland drafts a RB in the first or second round, Hardesty's value drops through the floor. He'd be better off sitting on Hardesty and waiting to see if Cleveland selects Richardson. If they do, he's got the handcuff since he's got 1.01. If they don't Hardesty has a shot to have some value/upside (although if Cleveland select Martin, Wilson, or Miller it's still a big shot to Hardesty's value).
Meh...I don't see that drop being that big. IN fact, Waldman's value chart has the 2.09 + 2.10 worth slightly more than the 1.10 alone, making Hardesty almost a throw in. Not sure I want three players for one though...rosters just aren't that big. The one has a better chance to hit, sure...but that's a thrid tier RB or 2nd tier WR...not exactly a $ pick. MIGHT be better odds with the three if you have the roster space.I'm not a fan looking to aquire, and I don't think Hardesty is likely to do anything significant going forward, but he is worth a lottery ticket. My post was just to illustrate how cheap he's become.
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beto
Footballguy
He's a confusing guy as far as talent goes. You look at the tape from Tennessee in 2009 and he has vision, burst, runs with great pad level and uses the spin move appropriately. Then you see him in the NFL and he is over using the spin move and not running behind his pads. He may be one of those guys who just can't adjust to the NFL for whatever reason.
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Black&Gold
Footballguy
no way I'd trade the 1.10 for 2.09 and 2.10. You're chances of landing a relevant player drops by about 95%. We aren't "real" NFL GMs looking for good "role" players. You can usually find the same quality players @ 2.09 or 2.10 on the waiver wire. Unless you have realy HUGE benches and there is no waiver wire and then it could be understandable.
This is simply not true. MOst of the late 1st players from last year look good...that's true, but look at the year before:1.07 Dwyer, Jonathan PIT RB ® 1.08 Gerhart, Toby MIN RB ® 1.09 Tate, Golden SEA WR ® 1.10 Benn, Arrelious TBB WR ® 1.11 Bradford, Sam STL QB ® 1.12 Hardesty, Montario CLE RB ® The only real hit here is Bradford, and he's not yet been a consistant fantasy starter. Look at the late first from the same draft: 2.07 Williams, Damian TEN WR ® 2.08 Dixon, Anthony SFO RB ® 2.09 Starks, James GBP RB ® 2.10 Clausen, Jimmy CAR QB ® 2.11 Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR ® 2.12 Decker, Eric DEN WR ® 3.01 Graham, Jimmy NOS TE ® Obviously, in this particular year, the late second was far more productive then the late first. It doesn't happen like this every year either, but the idea that a late 1st is 95% more likely to hit is plain false. I'd be interested in looking closer at more drafts covering more years, but I suspect the real answer is a late first is (historically) roughly 2X more likely to hit than a late second. Maybe not even that much.Roster space is key. Two late seconds might be worth one late first...but only if you have the roster space to accomodate. IN this case, two late 2s AND Hardesty is clearly appropriate value if the space is available (large rosters or larger leagues of 16.) In leagues with tight rosters or fewer than 12 teams, that would not be true at all.My referance to Waldmen's chart is from his RSP...something he's put a butt-time of time into. His charts are broken down by league size, and are based on the historical data that I'm only alluding to. (IE: He's already done the research suggesting that a late first is only twice as likely to hit as a late 2nd.)
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Otis, now is the time! Jump on Hardesty.
trader jake
Footballguy
As a Hardesty owner that passed on a few "low ball" offers for him this summer, I'd love to go back and get those offers now...lol. It's one thing to be a back-up...it's a whole other thing to be a back-up to a top 3 pick. Oof.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
I don't think you made a bad move here. I do not own Hardesty in any leagues, but if I did, I would have held for the upside. Not sure what you were offered in trade, but it probably was not much.As far as Hardesty goes, he lost a lot of confidence last year. I can remember the awkward moments when he dropped the easy passes. The moments the whole team wants to say something, but you have to find a way to be a good teammate. You know the coaches may have been willing to overlook a poor YPC because he was only a year out from the ACL, but at a minimum, catch the dump offs. The Browns are right to go with Trent because it will re-energize the offense and you can see if Hardesty is any good as a backup.I also thought that the Browns really botched it with Peyton Hillis. One of the ways to come out smelling like roses from those shenanigans is to draft a superstar.
Prussian
Footballguy
Hardesty's value is simple - injury driven handcuff.He only has value to the TRich owner and\or someone willing to bet on him having a rookie injury. Even that depends on his value holding roster space since he has had the injury bug himself.
What upside? He's one of the worst young backs in the league. I give him 2 years before he washes out.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
To be fair to Hardesty, it is well documented that RBs 1 year removed from ACL tears are not 100%. Hillis went down with hamstring pulls and the Browns had to lean on him when he was not ready. The end result is a "no confidence" vote in Hardesty. Some players are never the same again after a major leg injury. I think that part of this is physical, but much more mental, and this is a perfect example of that.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Browns' Hardesty top option with Richardson sidelined
Posted Aug. 19, 2012 @ 1:46 p.m. ET
By Mike Wilkening
Posted Aug. 19, 2012 @ 1:46 p.m. ET
By Mike Wilkening
