What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

RB Sony Michel (3 Viewers)

Do you interact with this entire world of people in real life the way you do here?
It’s was a fair statement.
 

Personally attacking me because you quoted a bunch of people on a message board to substantiate that “no one” said Sony was good after a 3 TD day is a bit of a small sample size and failed to make your point. 

 
It’s was a fair statement.
 

Personally attacking me because you quoted a bunch of people on a message board to substantiate that “no one” said Sony was good after a 3 TD day is a bit of a small sample size and failed to make your point. 
Personal attacking YOU?

Sure buddy. 

 
RB Index, Week 9: Sony Michel poised for second-half breakout

Excerpt:

Sony Michel, New England Patriots: The Patriots showed they were comfortable putting the game in Michel's hands in last season's playoffs, and the rookie passed with flying colors with 336 rushing yards and six rush TDs in their run to another Lombardi Trophy. Although Michel has been consistent this season, he hasn't been that player just yet. But you can bet the Patriots will lean on their run game late in the year. What better way to control the clock and maul opponents during a tough part of the schedule than with a tough, downhill runner who breaks tackles? Averaging 2.0 yards after contact per attempt entering Week 9, Michel is an ideal candidate to get more opportunities in the stretch run.

 
That's a generous statement of you. Some people here have noted it almost seems like he tackles himself. 
I’ve seen both. He’s broken some tackles. He’s also ran into the backs of OL. But the worst is when he tries to improvise & bust a run outside, not trusting the block to be there. I’d read another piece that said he’d have something like 20% more production if you removed those runs, even if the replacement runs went for 0 yards (because almost every one of the improv runs lost yardage)

so yeah - as someone who traded for Sony in both my leagues I hope he has a gangbusters 2nd half. 

 
I’ve seen both. He’s broken some tackles. He’s also ran into the backs of OL. But the worst is when he tries to improvise & bust a run outside, not trusting the block to be there. I’d read another piece that said he’d have something like 20% more production if you removed those runs, even if the replacement runs went for 0 yards (because almost every one of the improv runs lost yardage)

so yeah - as someone who traded for Sony in both my leagues I hope he has a gangbusters 2nd half. 
Yeah, the draft I took him highly in? He's not the reason I'm out of it. There are many others. I think a higher draft pick was still worth it, that he's scored a bunch of consistent points, and that he'll definitely have a role going forward. The amount Belichick is using him speaks for itself. He's averaged nineteen carries (!) a game his last five games. The only game he had under ten carries was Week Two. One might even call him a workhorse on those numbers alone. 

 
Yeah, the draft I took him highly in? He's not the reason I'm out of it. There are many others. I think a higher draft pick was still worth it, that he's scored a bunch of consistent points, and that he'll definitely have a role going forward. The amount Belichick is using him speaks for itself. He's averaged nineteen carries (!) a game his last five games. The only game he had under ten carries was Week Two. One might even call him a workhorse on those numbers alone. 
If White is truly limited (picked up a toe injury on Friday) Sony could see a few more targets in the receiving game. That alone would be a massive boost.

 
The 20-20 hindsight on display around here is amazing sometimes.

This game was scripted weird from the jump. McDaniels wanted to come out throwing & no huddle to slow the pass rush.  

They got away from what had been working. michele was in for another entire drive after the missed pass/bad route (not sure which but Brady’s look makes me think it was a route), but on the next drive it was michele with the great block, Michele on the flea flicker, & michele with another great block that gave Brady time to find Edelman, who fumbled.

i find it very hard to believe this is the look the Pats are going to give every team moving forward. They’re gonna burn this playbook & get back to running the ball. 

I’m reasonably sure Sony Michele is going to get plenty of carries after the BYE. Everyone can come down off the ledge. Sheesh. 

 
Sony Michel had four carries for 18 yards and caught one pass for 12 yards in Week 9 against the Ravens

Michel saw fewer touches than James White and Rex Burkhead with the Patriots trailing the entire game. He played just 22 percent of snaps. That's a step back for Michel, who had at least 70 yards or a touchdown in four straight games. With Burkhead healthy and playing a larger role, Michel's role could take a hit over the rest of the season.

Nov 3, 2019, 11:42 PM ET

 
Good time to buy low. 
Michel can be the perfect player to be traded for both parties involved.  A fantasy team with 5 wins or less that is strong at running back should trade him this week with the bye coming up.  Week 10 is 25% of the remaining regular season for teams that play a 13 week season.  A fantasy owner deep at receiver can give up a tier 2 wide receiver for him regardless of their record.  Michel might have question marks and a low ceiling because of his lack of receptions, but a team that only has 1 legitimate running back will covet him.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Michel can be the perfect player to be traded for both parties involved.  A fantasy team with 5 wins or less that is strong at running back should trade him this week with the bye coming up.  Week 10 is 25% of the remaining regular season for teams that play a 13 week season.  A fantasy owner deep at receiver can give up a tier 2 wide receiver for him regardless of their record.  Michel might have question marks and a low ceiling because of his lack of receptions, but a team that only has 1 legitimate running back will covet him.


I can see what makes him attractive. it's a risk that could certainly pay off but not one I am sure I personally would be willing to make, for multiple reasons. Would depend on the price that's for sure. Doesnt hurt to ask I guess. 

I'm just not very optimistic about him long term... however he could he a league winner down the stretch 

best of luck to anyone hitching their ride to this guy.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I can't think of too many "starting" RBs that have as much variability in the number of touches on a given week, or who are more game script dependent, than Michel. Incredibly difficult guy to start/own, particularly in PPR leagues.

 
I wouldnt be trading for him in dynasty. no way 

it's a risk that could certainly pay off but not one I personally would be willing to make, for multiple reasons. best of luck to anyone hitching their ride to this guy. 
Well, Dr. Dan... I have to say I agree with this assessment...  I have not been a fan of Sony but for mulitple reasons..  NEP RB Schemes change on a whim (BB design), Crowded Backfield (not enough touches), he does not get the receptions to be Top 20 in PPR leagues, and his knee issues make him too high a risk for the cost benefit.  I was considering making a "low ball offer" for him...  but I don't think I want to part with any assessts to get somebody unreliable.  

 
Eh if you view him as a flex who you start in games that should be blowouts with a good shot at 15-20 carries and a TD, but who you bench should the Pats end up in a competitive game where they have to throw, seems reasonable. If you view him as your regular RB2 starter, no, not reasonable.

 
Somehow my main rival in a league flipped him and Ridley a couple weeks ago for Lockett/Hooper. I played this rival this week. Lockett scored 41 on me. Cool story bro!

 
Somehow my main rival in a league flipped him and Ridley a couple weeks ago for Lockett/Hooper. I played this rival this week. Lockett scored 41 on me. Cool story bro!
That's  one of the worst trades I have ever seen in these threads. Your rival fleeced that other team. 

 
Take away his one yard touchdowns and he's been absolute fantasy poison. My second-worst draft pick (behind OBJ).
That’s like saying “take away his 13 receptions & Tyler Lockett was terrible yesterday!”

Michele scored those 1 yard TDs. He wasn’t poison when you got those points from him. That actually did happen. So you can’t take them away. 

and honestly, on a Pats team that we all knew headed into the season still had James White & Rex Burkhead, I’m not really sure what everyone was expecting. That he’s averaged 17.5 carries a game is more than I thought he’d get. And with OL injuries, the Pats aren’t as compete of a team as they once were regardless. 

IMO his ADP reflected this. Just because he had a couple big preseason runs, people seemed to have jumped on a bandwagon that never really existed for Michele.

i bought low for a still-gimpy Hollywood Brown a couple weeks ago. 

He’s likely gonna be a boom or bust RB2/Flex/BYE replacement (behind Carson & Singletary for me), with production that’s largely game-flow dependent as we saw in full force last night. I have no expectations beyond that, but this was likely his low water mark.

But he did score those TDs, and he will likely score some more TDs before the season is over.

It’s 1 bad week. Dude’s been pretty solid most of the year though. Better games ahead.   :shrug:

 
That’s like saying “take away his 13 receptions & Tyler Lockett was terrible yesterday!”

Michele scored those 1 yard TDs. He wasn’t poison when you got those points from him. That actually did happen. So you can’t take them away. 

and honestly, on a Pats team that we all knew headed into the season still had James White & Rex Burkhead, I’m not really sure what everyone was expecting. That he’s averaged 17.5 carries a game is more than I thought he’d get. And with OL injuries, the Pats aren’t as compete of a team as they once were regardless. 

IMO his ADP reflected this. Just because he had a couple big preseason runs, people seemed to have jumped on a bandwagon that never really existed for Michele.

i bought low for a still-gimpy Hollywood Brown a couple weeks ago. 

He’s likely gonna be a boom or bust RB2/Flex/BYE replacement (behind Carson & Singletary for me), with production that’s largely game-flow dependent as we saw in full force last night. I have no expectations beyond that, but this was likely his low water mark.

But he did score those TDs, and he will likely score some more TDs before the season is over.

It’s 1 bad week. Dude’s been pretty solid most of the year though. Better games ahead.   :shrug:
The problem is, he has two average games, a poor game, gets taken out of your starting lineup, ecores three touchdowns, gets back into your starting lineup, has two crappy games...

He's fantasy roulette with a payout once every 4 games.  Fantasy cancer. 

 
The problem is, he has two average games, a poor game, gets taken out of your starting lineup, ecores three touchdowns, gets back into your starting lineup, has two crappy games...

He's fantasy roulette with a payout once every 4 games.  Fantasy cancer. 
Every player goes through swings. Some more dramatic than others, as some are more game-flow dependent. 

The problem isn’t Sony’s swings, it’s owners expectations of his somewhat unpredictable production. 

but since he averages 17.5 carries a game (was higher before last night’s debacle) you trust that he’ll likely be better in 2 weeks when the Pats get off the BYE. 

the weather is gonna be a factor down the stretch, and they seem far more willing to run in the red zone this year. In a normal game against defenses that aren’t the Ravens in prime time playing like their heads are on fire, when Pats aren’t playing from behind all game, Sony should have much better numbers.

So if you’re expecting him to be Marshall Faulk, you’re gonna be disappointed. If you’re expecting him to be a boom or bust RB2/Flex guy, you take what you get and you’re happy if he does well.’

the fact is he’s not hurt, he is on a good team, and he should be productive moving forward. 

if folks are going to panic every time a player has a bad game; this probably isn’t the best hobby for them. The big picture matters. 

 
The 20-20 hindsight on display around here is amazing sometimes.

This game was scripted weird from the jump. McDaniels wanted to come out throwing & no huddle to slow the pass rush.  

They got away from what had been working. michele was in for another entire drive after the missed pass/bad route (not sure which but Brady’s look makes me think it was a route), but on the next drive it was michele with the great block, Michele on the flea flicker, & michele with another great block that gave Brady time to find Edelman, who fumbled.

i find it very hard to believe this is the look the Pats are going to give every team moving forward. They’re gonna burn this playbook & get back to running the ball. 

I’m reasonably sure Sony Michele is going to get plenty of carries after the BYE. Everyone can come down off the ledge. Sheesh. 
It's not all hindsight...

In the last game Burkhead played before getting hurt Sony had 9 carries for 11 yards (Burkhead 11-47, a goaline touchdown, and 6 receptions).

I think it's unwise to ignore that.

BB can tell the media that Sony is not the problem all he wants, we all know he's often less than honest with them.  But our eyes can see the way Sony looks, the way he kills them as a receiver every time they try to involve him more, and the way Burkhead's usage was trending upwards and actually surpassing Sony's before the injury.

Burkhead was questionable this week so he will probably be back soon.  Sony with half the volume he's been getting is not someone you want in your lineup, and that's assuming that the Pats don't suddenly come out one week and give Damien Harris 20 touches while both Sony and Burkhead ride the pine.  You never know here.

I guess the only thing going for keeping him is that no one else wants him either so you can't really get anything for him, and may as well just ride it out and hope that he doesn't burn you when it hurts most like we all know is a very very real possibility.
 
That’s like saying “take away his 13 receptions & Tyler Lockett was terrible yesterday!”

Michele scored those 1 yard TDs. He wasn’t poison when you got those points from him. That actually did happen. So you can’t take them away. 

and honestly, on a Pats team that we all knew headed into the season still had James White & Rex Burkhead, I’m not really sure what everyone was expecting. That he’s averaged 17.5 carries a game is more than I thought he’d get. And with OL injuries, the Pats aren’t as compete of a team as they once were regardless. 

IMO his ADP reflected this. Just because he had a couple big preseason runs, people seemed to have jumped on a bandwagon that never really existed for Michele.

i bought low for a still-gimpy Hollywood Brown a couple weeks ago. 

He’s likely gonna be a boom or bust RB2/Flex/BYE replacement (behind Carson & Singletary for me), with production that’s largely game-flow dependent as we saw in full force last night. I have no expectations beyond that, but this was likely his low water mark.

But he did score those TDs, and he will likely score some more TDs before the season is over.

It’s 1 bad week. Dude’s been pretty solid most of the year though. Better games ahead.   :shrug:
You keep mentioning the 17.5 carries per game, but a part of that was Burkhead's missed time.

With Burkhead out:  18.5 carries, 1.5 receptions per game

With Burkhead in: 14 carries, 0.25 receptions per game

 
Or maybe one bad game-script coincidentally fit your narrative. Equally possible. 
:shrug:

we’ll know more about whether this is a fluke or not after week 11. 
They've played 5 games together this year.

Burkhead out-touched Sony twice and Sony got more touches thrice, with one of those three being very close to a tie (15 vs. 13).

It's essentially been a toss-up who is going to get more touches when Burkhead has been healthy.

White has been unaffected by Burkhead playing or not so all of those touches are coming straight out of Sony's pocket, and touches are the only piece of value that Sony has.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Michel has played 25 games for NE and had double digit carries in 22 of them and 15 or more in 18 of them.
Burkhead has played 29 games for NE and had double digit carries in 7 of them and 15 or more in one of them (a game where Michel was out).

The games Michel doesn't get the ball are when the Pats go pass crazy or get way behind. How often is NE going to get behind 17-0?

 
Every player goes through swings. Some more dramatic than others, as some are more game-flow dependent. 

The problem isn’t Sony’s swings, it’s owners expectations of his somewhat unpredictable production. 

but since he averages 17.5 carries a game (was higher before last night’s debacle) you trust that he’ll likely be better in 2 weeks when the Pats get off the BYE. 

the weather is gonna be a factor down the stretch, and they seem far more willing to run in the red zone this year. In a normal game against defenses that aren’t the Ravens in prime time playing like their heads are on fire, when Pats aren’t playing from behind all game, Sony should have much better numbers.

So if you’re expecting him to be Marshall Faulk, you’re gonna be disappointed. If you’re expecting him to be a boom or bust RB2/Flex guy, you take what you get and you’re happy if he does well.’

the fact is he’s not hurt, he is on a good team, and he should be productive moving forward. 

if folks are going to panic every time a player has a bad game; this probably isn’t the best hobby for them. The big picture matters. 
Keep playing him if you want to hope he gets the ball for those one yarders.  Last night, he wasn't even in the game when they were near the goal line. 

No one expected him to be Marshall Faulk. We were just hoping he wasn't Leroy Hoard and we had to pray for a goal line carry. 

As got the 'big picture', he looks terrible with the eye ball test. On half of his carries, he stops before getting to the line of scrimmage then falls forward.  He also never breaks a tackle. I'm sure Belichick sees this too and is probably why he had five touches last night.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Michel has played 25 games for NE and had double digit carries in 22 of them and 15 or more in 18 of them.
Burkhead has played 29 games for NE and had double digit carries in 7 of them and 15 or more in one of them (a game where Michel was out).

The games Michel doesn't get the ball are when the Pats go pass crazy or get way behind. How often is NE going to get behind 17-0?
Exactly this. 

They've played 5 games together this year.
sample size isn’t exactly massive there. and. Burkhead doesn’t have a great history of staying healthy. 

 
Keep playing him if you want to hope he gets the ball for those one yarders.  Last night, he wasn't even in the game when they were near the goal line. 

No one expected him to be Marshall Faulk. We were just hoping he wasn't Leroy Hoard and we had to pray for a goal line carry. 
Michel is ranked RB18 in 0 PPR leagues and RB26 in PPR leagues. People that took him PPR leagues after having a season with only 7 receptions could not have expected the universe, no matter where they drafted him. In MFL 0 ppr leagues, Michel had an ADP of RB21. Sure, he hasn't been great and hasn't looked great, but there are other players people should be griping over besides Michel.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Keep playing him if you want to hope he gets the ball for those one yarders.  Last night, he wasn't even in the game when they were near the goal line. 
 
Not saying you’re not entitled to your opinion, but a 1-game sample size isn’t a convincing argument to me. 

No one expected him to be Marshall Faulk. We were just hoping he wasn't Leroy Hoard and we had to pray for a goal line carry. 
he’s averaged 17.5 carries a game this year. You’re basing all of this on one bad game. That’s an overreaction to a single outlier.

As got the 'big picture', he looks terrible with the eye ball test. On half of his carries, he stops before getting to the line of scrimmage then falls forward.  He also never breaks a tackle. I'm sure Belichick sees this too and is probably why he had five touches last night.
No, he had 5 touches last night because the Pats went no-huddle for the majority of the game & even on the long drive that ended with the Edelman fumble, they went 100% pass. Michele was on the field the entire drive, made 2 fantastic blocks & executes a perfect flea flicker. Just because it didn’t show up in the box score doesn’t mean he wasn’t used by the Pats. 

basing your entire conclusion off of 1 game sample is not “big picture”. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Never could sell this guy for exactly this reason. Never draft again. Can't lose weeks because of his variance. 
Isnt this the definition of the NE backfield?

I bit several years ago 2 years in a row and swore off that backfield forever (similar to Denver in the post- T. Davis age). 

His playoff schedule is so interesting... but the variance is crazy. Do you really want to risk your playoffs on that variance? Come playoff time suddenly Harris gets all the carries for no reason at all? 

The temptation is there for me to send AJ Brown for him, but I could see that backfiring in a major way. For now I'm looking elsewhere for RB help. Or I can hope Finley revives the CIN offense and stick with Mixon (or Guice) and their favorable playofff schedules! 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Isnt this the definition of the NE backfield?

I bit several years ago 2 years in a row and swore off that backfield forever (similar to Denver in the post- T. Davis age). 

His playoff schedule is so interesting... but the variance is crazy. Do you really want to risk your playoffs on that variance? Come playoff time suddenly Harris gets all the carries for no reason at all? 

The temptation is there for me to send AJ Brown for him, but I could see that backfiring in a major way. For now I'm looking elsewhere for RB help. Or I can hope Finley revives the CIN offense and stick with Mixon (or Guice) and their favorable playofff schedules! 
I have never figured out why people get agita over the NE backfield. It hardly ever is a mystery. One guy is an early down ball carrier. One guy is a third down COP receiver. And one guy gets a series once or twice a game. Once in a while they go pass happy and once in a while they have to go off game script. But people should already know all this. 

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top