RB to Exploit-Avoid Week 2 (1 Viewer)

[Instinctive]

Once again only one issue from me this week MOP:

Willis - I-didn't-even-mention-him- McGahee looks to get a start the last I heard. I think he's better than Moreno on a week to week basis (plus goal line if Denver ever makes it there), and if he's gonna get close to 20 touches with Moreno out, then he's got to be started.

I've always been a McGahee fan though (and I have no idea why, so it must be because I like his talent) so a grain of salt could be warranted.

Then again, not mentioning him at all would fall into the grievous error category in my book. Easy RB2 material for me this week if Moreno can't go, acceptable flex if both are playing.

 

[pantherclub]

ayone watching NFL Live. Mathew Berry has given his 'start/sit' picks, and each one both schlereth and brusci told that they felt the opposite of Matt Berry. It was funny to watch him squirm...

Teddy B seems like a total and complete D bag. Like someone who is having a real tough time letting the game go.

 

[gheemony]

Starks or Caddy? Grant's presence adds risk for Starks, though I like his match up better. I go back and forth. Might use the MNF tie-breaker.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Once again only one issue from me this week MOP:Willis - I-didn't-even-mention-him- McGahee looks to get a start the last I heard. I think he's better than Moreno on a week to week basis (plus goal line if Denver ever makes it there), and if he's gonna get close to 20 touches with Moreno out, then he's got to be started.I've always been a McGahee fan though (and I have no idea why, so it must be because I like his talent) so a grain of salt could be warranted. Then again, not mentioning him at all would fall into the grievous error category in my book. Easy RB2 material for me this week if Moreno can't go, acceptable flex if both are playing.

Boss, I wrote this on Monday Night/Early Tues morn...haven't updated yet, was planning on that later tonight. Read the subtitle of the thread. I will address McGahee but he was ineffective with limited touches the other night, did catch a few balls IIRC. I will look at the tapes but Denver is gunning for bottom 5 offensively right now.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Starks or Caddy? Grant's presence adds risk for Starks, though I like his match up better. I go back and forth. Might use the MNF tie-breaker.

I like Starks offense, OL, surrounding cast, age, injury history about a bajillion times better than Caddy right now.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It sure looks like Moreno is going to be a game time decision at best. Denver has lost cabin pressure inside of a week. Their defense is in shambles in the front 7 and now they are likely gonna shelve Dumervill for a week or two with a shoulder injury.

What does that mean for McGahee? He didn't look all that good running the football. Lloyd may be out which only weakens the supporting cast here. If Denver has no weapons in the passing game then Cinci can play 7 and 8 in the box all day. Gradkowski getting all 1st team reps this week so plan on him taking the field and that's not a bad thing for Cinci. I can't believe Palmer quits on them and they go 2-0 to start the season but that is what we are looking at. I wouldn't put McGahee in the top25 this week. Maybe not even top30 so I don't see a ton of upside right now. Maybe he could grab some receptions to pad his stats.

 

[[icon]]

Still playing with crayons in here... why dont you break out the sharpies and do some real work inthe prognosticators challenge.

Surely as a long term publick highligher of red and green hues, you're willing to take the next step and prove you've got a better grasp on the top 10 and top 5 each week than the common shark pooler...

I am willing to wager $100 that you cant make it to the top 6.

You win, you can keep the cash or I will gladly provide physical evidence of donating it to the charity of your choice.

You lose, you don't have to do anything (but are invited to purchase a FBG subscription for the runner up to the contest)

You down?

FYI: Same offer stands for LHUCKS

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Still playing with crayons in here... why dont you break out the sharpies and do some real work inthe prognosticators challenge.

Surely as a long term publick highligher of red and green hues, you're willing to take the next step and prove you've got a better grasp on the top 10 and top 5 each week than the common shark pooler...

I am willing to wager $100 that you cant make it to the top 6.

You win, you can keep the cash or I will gladly provide physical evidence of donating it to the charity of your choice.

You lose, you don't have to do anything (but are invited to purchase a FBG subscription for the runner up to the contest)

You down?

FYI: Same offer stands for LHUCKS

I bet I don't make it to 6 either

 

[griff321]

what about Hardesty in Cleveland? Is he gonna cut into Hillis' touches much?

Can I ask you what makes you think Hardesty would cut into Hillis touches? i watched the entire game twice and I never got any impression like that at all. They used Hardesty a little bit in the 1st half but Cleveland committed 7 penalties on their 1st 8 plays from scrimmage IIRC...they can't get Hillis going when its 2nd and 25. Hillis was catching balls and I don't think that will change with the terrible set of WRs they have right now. That should help you but if you are worried I would like to hear more about Hardesty.

Hardesty is one of Otis' guys, so their is a bit of misinformation floating in the pool. From his all-value team bump this week.

Montario Hardesty -- Looked solid spelling Hillis, who was himself sort of unspectacular. Like a good grilled cheese, turn the heat on low and give this time to simmer.

 

[griff321]

Tampa Bay at Minnesota



2 teams off atrocious losses where we saw some pretty awful offenses. Which of these teams an turn it around and get things back on track? Let’s look at ADP this past week. I know you are gonna start him but let’s look anyways.



1st run of the game the Chargers are in a very conservative cover 2 formation and it was easy pickens for ADP as he runs behind a pulling Steve Hutchinson and goes untouched about 8 yds and then shakes off a DLineman to plow for another 6 or 7 on the play. This is the Vikings at their best on offense. On the next play San Diego shifted to 8 in the box and closer to 10 in the box the way they were set up and of course they gang tackle ADP as he pulls a miracle even getting back to the LOS let alone picking up positive yards. He’s incredible. 3rd play and you start to see the problem...Johnson the LT is pulling to the left and he is totally shoved backwards and is on his back as ADP is trying to cut it back to the right and met with a seas of blue and yellow jerseys. This just got magnified when McNabb could not throw the football. The loss of Bryant McKinnie while justified had no back u plan and it’s going to make a difference over the season.



The Bucs not only failed to run the ball well but they literally just failed to try to run the ball as Blount only had 5 carries and hey won’t win any football games with that formula. I believe Blount will get back on track this week as the Bucs didn’t know what hit them in Stafford and Calvin Johnson last week. The Vikings looked soft even agains tth erun and they might be have a suspension or two in their front seven which isn’t helping. I wouldn’t hesitate to play Blount this week as I doubt the Bucs will fall behind by double digits in this game.



Final Score: Tampa Bay 24...Minnesota 17

I disagree with your take on Blount and your reasoning behind it.The Vikings didn't looks so much soft against the run as a team gasping for air because the Minnesota offense couldn't keep them off the field. I'm sure MN and more importantly McNabb will do better, but I doubt it'll be good enough for at least one more week. Another strike against the Vikes is Kevin Williams will be suspended for this week and the bodies that they're rotating in for Fat Pat's old spot are ineffective at best. LBers are looking good and Winfield is up to his old playmaking ways like last year vs the Eagles, but it's not going to be enough. My feeling is that the Bucs will jump to an early lead and just lean on the Vikes or they just lean on the Vikes the entire game until they break. The big runs may not happen until the second half, but unless the a miracle happens and the O vastly improves that D will get tired and break.

You somewhat eluded to this fact, but didn't spell it out, so I will. The reason why holding a lead or at least being close is so important for Blount's production is he can't block. This is why Ernest Graham saw the field and Blount wasn't involved in the passing game. I thought I remember Blount having fairly decent hands, but it's obvious that the Bucs just do not trust him in that situation right now. All this week it's been talked to death that around the NFL Blount is widely considered one of the worst blockers. That being said I think it never becomes an issue against the Vikes. The only way I see MN forcing the issue on the Bucs is if Adrian/special teams/defense goes nuts and scores a few TDs early. That could happen, but it's very unlikely. Even if that does happen then Tampa could still stick to running the ball and eating clock if the MN offense looks as anemic as last week.

I think Blount has a much better then expected week. He tops the century mark to go with a score and good chance at a second.

Disclaimer: I don't own Blunt in any leagues and my disgust for my favorite squad may be making my view harsher then it should. Plus we play at home, so we do have a sick noise factor when the Vikes are going. I wholeheartedly expect the boo-birds to be out by the end of the first and you'll be able to clearly hear the Bucs cadence by the second half.

 

[cheese]

You make an interesting point about Sproles staying involved in the passing game with Colston and maybe Moore out. However, I have to see his role in a game where they aren't trailing by double digits all day. With or without Colston, this is a really good team IMO. I think the circumstances that led to Sproles production week 1 are going to show up rarely if ever the rest of the way.

Anyway, I think the only matchup that should make Sproles green is a matchup where the Saints are getting killed again. Otherwise, you're guessing at a part time player's involvement in that particular week's gameplan. Risky business.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Tampa Bay at Minnesota



2 teams off atrocious losses where we saw some pretty awful offenses. Which of these teams an turn it around and get things back on track? Let's look at ADP this past week. I know you are gonna start him but let's look anyways.



1st run of the game the Chargers are in a very conservative cover 2 formation and it was easy pickens for ADP as he runs behind a pulling Steve Hutchinson and goes untouched about 8 yds and then shakes off a DLineman to plow for another 6 or 7 on the play. This is the Vikings at their best on offense. On the next play San Diego shifted to 8 in the box and closer to 10 in the box the way they were set up and of course they gang tackle ADP as he pulls a miracle even getting back to the LOS let alone picking up positive yards. He's incredible. 3rd play and you start to see the problem...Johnson the LT is pulling to the left and he is totally shoved backwards and is on his back as ADP is trying to cut it back to the right and met with a seas of blue and yellow jerseys. This just got magnified when McNabb could not throw the football. The loss of Bryant McKinnie while justified had no back u plan and it's going to make a difference over the season.



The Bucs not only failed to run the ball well but they literally just failed to try to run the ball as Blount only had 5 carries and hey won't win any football games with that formula. I believe Blount will get back on track this week as the Bucs didn't know what hit them in Stafford and Calvin Johnson last week. The Vikings looked soft even agains tth erun and they might be have a suspension or two in their front seven which isn't helping. I wouldn't hesitate to play Blount this week as I doubt the Bucs will fall behind by double digits in this game.



Final Score: Tampa Bay 24...Minnesota 17

I disagree with your take on Blount and your reasoning behind it.The Vikings didn't looks so much soft against the run as a team gasping for air because the Minnesota offense couldn't keep them off the field. I'm sure MN and more importantly McNabb will do better, but I doubt it'll be good enough for at least one more week. Another strike against the Vikes is Kevin Williams will be suspended for this week and the bodies that they're rotating in for Fat Pat's old spot are ineffective at best. LBers are looking good and Winfield is up to his old playmaking ways like last year vs the Eagles, but it's not going to be enough. My feeling is that the Bucs will jump to an early lead and just lean on the Vikes or they just lean on the Vikes the entire game until they break. The big runs may not happen until the second half, but unless the a miracle happens and the O vastly improves that D will get tired and break.

You somewhat eluded to this fact, but didn't spell it out, so I will. The reason why holding a lead or at least being close is so important for Blount's production is he can't block. This is why Ernest Graham saw the field and Blount wasn't involved in the passing game. I thought I remember Blount having fairly decent hands, but it's obvious that the Bucs just do not trust him in that situation right now. All this week it's been talked to death that around the NFL Blount is widely considered one of the worst blockers. That being said I think it never becomes an issue against the Vikes. The only way I see MN forcing the issue on the Bucs is if Adrian/special teams/defense goes nuts and scores a few TDs early. That could happen, but it's very unlikely. Even if that does happen then Tampa could still stick to running the ball and eating clock if the MN offense looks as anemic as last week.

I think Blount has a much better then expected week. He tops the century mark to go with a score and good chance at a second.

Disclaimer: I don't own Blunt in any leagues and my disgust for my favorite squad may be making my view harsher then it should. Plus we play at home, so we do have a sick noise factor when the Vikes are going. I wholeheartedly expect the boo-birds to be out by the end of the first and you'll be able to clearly hear the Bucs cadence by the second half.

good stuff Griff.