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RB to Exploit -Avoid Week 4 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Hey everyone, this week I am going to do things a little different and spotlight a few players I think have better match ups, talk about a couple sleepers, and then also some folks with bad match ups instead of going game by game and talking endlessly about a player that 95% of most owners are going to play regardless.

Tim Hightower: I love the match up against St Louis and you should know that THT traditionally is lights out inside the domes. He excels on a fast track and I expect him to do very well this week. In years past he has posted 22/109/TD @St.L, 14/110@St.L, 13/50/TD, 4/40rec @St.L, 11/115/TD@Atl...so mainly he has whipped up on the Rams but this is why he is so high on so many cheat sheets out there. And if you want a good sleeper pick this week I would imagine Roy Helu will also do well when he is on the field. You have got to find room for Hightower in your line up this week.

Daniel Thomas-OUT: Was going to be in my top10 this week, scratch that now

Frank Gore: Philly is ripe for an explosion from Gore. He hasn't looked good but early indications are that he will be ready to roll on Sunday. Sleeper pick here would be Kendall Hunter but Gore would have to be inactive before I would even think about Hunter. Gore has a terrific track record and has started slow but that's why he is a surprise play for some this week. If you have Rice and DMC in front of him by all means bench the guy otherwise I would want him in my starting line up this week.

These next RBs would be in my 11-20 range.

Joseph Addai: I like this match up and he is supposed to be fine for the MNF game against the Bucs who have a hit and miss defense although they did look strong at times against Atlanta. Indy cannot throw and Addai had a very workmanlike performance against Pittsburgh last week. The sleeper play is obviously Delone Carter but I think Addai has a good hold right now on the starting position. Especially with an inexperienced QB back there, they can't afford missed blocking assignments.

Cedric Benson: I believe Buffalo will come out flat because of the win over New England last week, similar to what we saw the Ravens pull in week @Tennessee. They won't have the Orchard Park Zanies to feed off of so I expect them to not look like what we have seen to this point. I have been a big Buffalo supporter, enjoy the weekly game threads but this week I like Cedric Benson who is fighting Goodell as well and pushing his suspension back weeks. I see benson hovering in the top15 this week. The Bills are not a real good run stopping team either.

Danny Woodhead: He's been quiet for much of the season. I believe New England understands there are times in the game they need to run the ball. BJGE is their goal line guy and Woodhead is more between the 20s but I expect him to have a decent week this week. I see Ridley coming along but New England is almost in a must win in the division they are in with the jets and Bills both coming on strong, look for Woodhead action to slow down the Oakland defense.

Some guys I am not expecting as much out of

Fred Jackson: Again I don't anticipate the Bills looking like they have the past few weeks. I'm not encouraging you to bench him but I would not expect top10 numbers from him this week. I have him on the lower end of the top25.

James Starks: Grant is OUT most likely and Starks showed last week that he is no sure thing like some owners want to believe. Denver is not terrible against the run and last week they shut down Chris Johnson rather easily and also Ringer was even worse out there. Green bay wins the game easily but they will do it with the arm of Aaron Rodgers, not a methodical run game led by Starks. I have him also on the back side of the top25, maybe top30.

Michael Turner: Atlanta has to travel far and Turner outside of a couple runs has not looked good and even those he was being brought down from behind. Seattle has a terrific 3.1 ypc on rush defense and they didn't even let Mendy run on them when they were shut out in Pittsburgh 24-0. I'm afraid the Turner train continues to move slow this week.

Dexter McCluster: The Vikings are not bad against the run and McCluster is about all they got outside of Bowe so defenses are pretty aware of him. I see him top15 on a lot of sites, no way I see him doing that, especially non PPR leagues.

Shonn Greene: Enough has been said about him but I don't expect him to look great with Nick Mangold still likely a scratch at Center this week. The Ravens are the most complete team IMO in the NFL, the Jets will grow tired of trying to run the ball and take to the air with Sanchez. That's really their only chance to win the game IMO. Ravens have got their rush defense down to 3.5 ypc, and that's just solid.

You can ask anything you want about some of the players I might have skipped. You don't need to ask about ADP, RIce, DMC, those types are just too valuable to consider benching so I certainly wouldn't waste a lot of time thinking about it. I realize this is a far cry form the usual write up but I have a lot of things right now chewing up my time and I felt these were the key guys this week to focus on. Again if you have specifics fire away.

Good luck this weekend everyone.

 
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Whats your Felix Jones take this week? Top 20?

How about the Browns backfield. Hillis still going to see 80% of the workload, or will Hardesty take 40% of the action now?

 
I usually am in line with your choices, but as an owner of both Daniel Thomas and Fred Jackson, I think I will have a hard time benching Jackson for Thomas. Granted, they have both been playing well, but Jackson has looked dominant. Also, from watching the game this past week, it really proved that whether Buffalo is ahead or behind, they find a way to keep Jackson involved. He's not known for pass catching, but when the team was down, they went to him in that area. I see Thomas as a top 20 guy this week, with Jackson around #10.

I definitely agree with you on McCluster. I own him as well and have been shocked to see how highly he is ranked. I wish some of my leaguemates were Footballguys readers, because I would love to sell him as highly as he's being considered this week (and in the 250+).

I'm curious about your thoughts on Jahvid Best this week.

 
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Frank Gore: Philly is ripe for an explosion from Gore. He hasn't looked good but early indications are that he will be ready to roll on Sunday. Sleeper pick here would be Kendall Hunter but Gore would have to be inactive before I would even think about Hunter. Gore has a terrific track record and has started slow but that's why he is a surprise play for some this week. If you have Rice and DMC in front of him by all means bench the guy otherwise I would want him in my starting line up this week.
I'm not sure I would rely on Gore this week. According to Rotoworld, he doesn't sound like he's even close to ready to go:Frank Gore (ankle) is still not confident that he will be available for Sunday's game against the Eagles.

"I don't know, man," Gore said. "I really don't know. If I can't go, I can't go." According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the 49ers believe they will have Gore in "some type of limited role" against the Eagles, leaving Kendall Hunter with extra snaps. Despite a limited practice on Wednesday, Gore's status remains up in the air for Week 4. Even in an attractive matchup, he's a high-risk fantasy play if he ends up getting the green light.

 
Whats your Felix Jones take this week? Top 20?How about the Browns backfield. Hillis still going to see 80% of the workload, or will Hardesty take 40% of the action now?
15-20 range assuming he is good to go with the shoulder. Detroit can be run on and while I think they win in Dallas, I don't see Best being the biggest part of it. I believe he will be relevant in PPR leagues but Detroit cannot run the ball too well and Dallas has been awfully good against the run...I think they are top5 in rush defense right now.
 
Frank Gore: Philly is ripe for an explosion from Gore. He hasn't looked good but early indications are that he will be ready to roll on Sunday. Sleeper pick here would be Kendall Hunter but Gore would have to be inactive before I would even think about Hunter. Gore has a terrific track record and has started slow but that's why he is a surprise play for some this week. If you have Rice and DMC in front of him by all means bench the guy otherwise I would want him in my starting line up this week.
I'm not sure I would rely on Gore this week. According to Rotoworld, he doesn't sound like he's even close to ready to go:Frank Gore (ankle) is still not confident that he will be available for Sunday's game against the Eagles.

"I don't know, man," Gore said. "I really don't know. If I can't go, I can't go." According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the 49ers believe they will have Gore in "some type of limited role" against the Eagles, leaving Kendall Hunter with extra snaps. Despite a limited practice on Wednesday, Gore's status remains up in the air for Week 4. Even in an attractive matchup, he's a high-risk fantasy play if he ends up getting the green light.
Then I like Kendall Hunter, if Hunter is going to be the guy come Sunday.

 
I usually am in line with your choices, but as an owner of both Daniel Thomas and Fred Jackson, I think I will have a hard time benching Jackson for Thomas. Granted, they have both been playing well, but Jackson has looked dominant. Also, from watching the game this past week, it really proved that whether Buffalo is ahead or behind, they find a way to keep Jackson involved. He's not known for pass catching, but when the team was down, they went to him in that area. I see Thomas as a top 20 guy this week, with Jackson around #10.I definitely agree with you on McCluster. I own him as well and have been shocked to see how highly he is ranked. I wish some of my leaguemates were Footballguys readers, because I would love to sell him as highly as he's being considered this week (and in the 250+).I'm curious about your thoughts on Jahvid Best this week.
I see Buffalo coming out flat this week. Big win last week, now on the road, perfect trap game a they are laying points to boot. I am a Buffalo supporter but this has more to do with NFL trends I notice over the last decade or two. They are exceeding expectations, go on the road, favored to win, and then they struggle like mad all day. They might win the game but it will be very close if they do.
 
Just wanted to say I look forward to your articles every week. (I like the old way better but change can be good) Any way.

Lynch finally showed some production last week. Do you think the addition of Rice could give him a chance to start producing?

 
Whats your Felix Jones take this week? Top 20?How about the Browns backfield. Hillis still going to see 80% of the workload, or will Hardesty take 40% of the action now?
15-20 range assuming he is good to go with the shoulder. Detroit can be run on and while I think they win in Dallas, I don't see Best being the biggest part of it. I believe he will be relevant in PPR leagues but Detroit cannot run the ball too well and Dallas has been awfully good against the run...I think they are top5 in rush defense right now.
I like Hillis, not buying into the Hardesty hype yet. We haven't seen Hillis share much since he took over so I'll believe it when I see it.
 
Just wanted to say I look forward to your articles every week. (I like the old way better but change can be good) Any way.Lynch finally showed some production last week. Do you think the addition of Rice could give him a chance to start producing?
I got him barely making the top30 this week. He is bottom 5 for starting RBs with that OL and Atlanta is allowing 3.6 ypc as well.
 
Tim Hightower: I love the match up against St Louis and you should know that THT traditionally is lights out inside the domes. He excels on a fast track and I expect him to do very well this week. In years past he has posted 22/109/TD @St.L, 14/110@St.L, 13/50/TD, 4/40rec @St.L, 11/115/TD@Atl...so mainly he has whipped up on the Rams but this is why he is so high on so many cheat sheets out there. And if you want a good sleeper pick this week I would imagine Roy Helu will also do well when he is on the field. You have got to find room for Hightower in your line up this week.
I find that interesting considering Hightower is one of the slowest RBs in the league. Usually it's the quick and fast guys that love the turf.
 
Well I have Rice starting, what happens if your Flex is between Gore and Starks :) . I probably go Starks, but it's tough to sit Gore if he plays...

 
How do you feel about Ingram this week? Does he finally get some more touches this week, since they will most likely be playing from ahead most of the game?

 
Tim Hightower: I love the match up against St Louis and you should know that THT traditionally is lights out inside the domes. He excels on a fast track and I expect him to do very well this week. In years past he has posted 22/109/TD @St.L, 14/110@St.L, 13/50/TD, 4/40rec @St.L, 11/115/TD@Atl...so mainly he has whipped up on the Rams but this is why he is so high on so many cheat sheets out there. And if you want a good sleeper pick this week I would imagine Roy Helu will also do well when he is on the field. You have got to find room for Hightower in your line up this week.
I find that interesting considering Hightower is one of the slowest RBs in the league. Usually it's the quick and fast guys that love the turf.
I'm not sure why you would say that. Maybe you have his 40 times handy but he has some very long TD runs the last 2-3 years including inside the dorms, that long run against GB int he opening round of the playoffs 2-3 years ago, I have never thought he was slow, preseason he was busting long runs too. I would be interested to hear the rest of the board chime in on this one, slow is not the word I describe him as but maybe he is and just got lucky on some of these runs.
 
Well I have Rice starting, what happens if your Flex is between Gore and Starks :) . I probably go Starks, but it's tough to sit Gore if he plays...
Do you guys think Gore is a decent buy-low? You think he does better from this point forward (once healthy)? Or does the lack of a passing game kill his numbers this year?
 
What do you think about Blount this week? Trying to make a flex choice between Blount and Hightower in my 12man ppr for the flex and i have been going back and forth all week.

 
Tim Hightower: I love the match up against St Louis and you should know that THT traditionally is lights out inside the domes. He excels on a fast track and I expect him to do very well this week. In years past he has posted 22/109/TD @St.L, 14/110@St.L, 13/50/TD, 4/40rec @St.L, 11/115/TD@Atl...so mainly he has whipped up on the Rams but this is why he is so high on so many cheat sheets out there. And if you want a good sleeper pick this week I would imagine Roy Helu will also do well when he is on the field. You have got to find room for Hightower in your line up this week.
I find that interesting considering Hightower is one of the slowest RBs in the league. Usually it's the quick and fast guys that love the turf.
I'm not sure why you would say that. Maybe you have his 40 times handy but he has some very long TD runs the last 2-3 years including inside the dorms, that long run against GB int he opening round of the playoffs 2-3 years ago, I have never thought he was slow, preseason he was busting long runs too. I would be interested to hear the rest of the board chime in on this one, slow is not the word I describe him as but maybe he is and just got lucky on some of these runs.
Strange. I always thought speed was one of THT's best attributes.
 
Well I have Rice starting, what happens if your Flex is between Gore and Starks :) . I probably go Starks, but it's tough to sit Gore if he plays...
Do you guys think Gore is a decent buy-low? You think he does better from this point forward (once healthy)? Or does the lack of a passing game kill his numbers this year?
I drafted purposely avoiding Gore... and would continue that to this point. He's been terrible
 
Tim Hightower: I love the match up against St Louis and you should know that THT traditionally is lights out inside the domes. He excels on a fast track and I expect him to do very well this week. In years past he has posted 22/109/TD @St.L, 14/110@St.L, 13/50/TD, 4/40rec @St.L, 11/115/TD@Atl...so mainly he has whipped up on the Rams but this is why he is so high on so many cheat sheets out there. And if you want a good sleeper pick this week I would imagine Roy Helu will also do well when he is on the field. You have got to find room for Hightower in your line up this week.
I find that interesting considering Hightower is one of the slowest RBs in the league. Usually it's the quick and fast guys that love the turf.
I'm not sure why you would say that. Maybe you have his 40 times handy but he has some very long TD runs the last 2-3 years including inside the dorms, that long run against GB int he opening round of the playoffs 2-3 years ago, I have never thought he was slow, preseason he was busting long runs too. I would be interested to hear the rest of the board chime in on this one, slow is not the word I describe him as but maybe he is and just got lucky on some of these runs.
He's always looked slow to me. Long runs aren't always an indication of speed since there's many other factors involved.I went and looked up his 40 time because I didn't know it and it's 4.59 which is pretty slow for a RB (although not terribly slow for a bigger back like him).

 
Well I have Rice starting, what happens if your Flex is between Gore and Starks :) . I probably go Starks, but it's tough to sit Gore if he plays...
Do you guys think Gore is a decent buy-low? You think he does better from this point forward (once healthy)? Or does the lack of a passing game kill his numbers this year?
I drafted purposely avoiding Gore... and would continue that to this point. He's been terrible
Same here. And as such I hadn't really followed his progress through the first three weeks. As poorly as he has done, I figured one might be able to get him really cheap from his owner. But it might not be worth the bother...
 
MOP, I am seriously considering finally rolling out Mark Ingram this weekend against the Jags. I think he's finally coming into his own. I feel really high on him this weekend as there should be multiple GL scoring chances. Any thoughts on Ingram?

 
Well I have Rice starting, what happens if your Flex is between Gore and Starks :) . I probably go Starks, but it's tough to sit Gore if he plays...
Just look at the IR, i had read that he was going to be fine, others are posting that Gore might not be OK. If it's bad come Sat, probably lean Starks only because he is fairly healthy. Every team is unique meaning owners and sometimes you gotta roll with guys even if they are not deemed as strong plays by dumb dumbs like me :)
 
Whats your Felix Jones take this week? Top 20?How about the Browns backfield. Hillis still going to see 80% of the workload, or will Hardesty take 40% of the action now?
15-20 range assuming he is good to go with the shoulder. Detroit can be run on and while I think they win in Dallas, I don't see Best being the biggest part of it. I believe he will be relevant in PPR leagues but Detroit cannot run the ball too well and Dallas has been awfully good against the run...I think they are top5 in rush defense right now.
I like Hillis, not buying into the Hardesty hype yet. We haven't seen Hillis share much since he took over so I'll believe it when I see it.
MOP, do you think Hillis is still in must start territory each week pending health issues? As in he's a start over the guys you listed in green here most of the weeks? Not looking for "this week" opinion, more of where does he stand after three weeks of NFL (two for him specifically). Thanks MOP, keep up the good work.
 
THT is more quick than fast. I still like his prospects this year as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside many weeks, even though he's clearly far from the 2010 Arian Foster pick some where hoping for.

 
THT is more quick than fast. I still like his prospects this year as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside many weeks, even though he's clearly far from the 2010 Arian Foster pick some where hoping for.
I am still waiting for one of the other redskin backs to take his job cause they work for the rat. You know its gonna happen :yes:
 
MOP, what do you think about Chris Johnson, any confidence he can turn it around this week?
Definitely maybe.They have terrible run blocking inside but he says he is in better game shape, will hit the whole harder, yada yada yada...I own him in multiple leagues and the only thing I am happy about is I have been winning despite him. And since some owners have lost players for the season, I'm simply happy he isn't injured. In 2009, 4 of his 1st 5 games were pretty blah so rings should turnaround...I hope.
 
MOP, I am seriously considering finally rolling out Mark Ingram this weekend against the Jags. I think he's finally coming into his own. I feel really high on him this weekend as there should be multiple GL scoring chances. Any thoughts on Ingram?
Jags are pretty good defensively stopping the run. I like Sproles a lot in PPR but Ingram not so much. Sproles has more snaps than the other two backs even though he has very few carries.
 
MOP, do you think Hillis is still in must start territory each week pending health issues? As in he's a start over the guys you listed in green here most of the weeks? Not looking for "this week" opinion, more of where does he stand after three weeks of NFL (two for him specifically). Thanks MOP, keep up the good work.
I like Hillis plenty and if Hardesty take 8-10 touches a game I still see a very limited offense that will run the ball a ton and Hillis is still going to get his 20+ touches a game most weeks.
 
Is this the week to use Peterson in an eliminator league (use a QB, RB, and WR each week, can only be used once per season)? Like his chance to score multiple TD, but seems strange to use him in Arrowhead instead of the Metrodome...

 
Is this the week to use Peterson in an eliminator league (use a QB, RB, and WR each week, can only be used once per season)? Like his chance to score multiple TD, but seems strange to use him in Arrowhead instead of the Metrodome...
Is Hightower an option? That guy is top3-5 on almost every major cheat sheet that I come across. And I do my own top40 each week and he ended up in mine pretty quick. That guys has been consistently great against the Rams in the dome and I believe they will run the ball a lot this weekend since the Rams are hemorrhaging on rush defense. The Chiefs are not terrible on run defense. You can only use a player once I assume over the season? I would save him.
 
What do you think of beanie assuming he's 100%. I can't get a good read on the Giants defense.
I don't think he will be 100%, this is tarting to look like 2010 again where he can't play and is always a game time decision, might even start but then pull up with cramps in the 2nd Q...just saying. I have Alphonso Smith playing this week and should have mentioned him but I don't think he will be very productive. Outside the top30.
 
MOP, I know this is your RB thread, but will you please tell me your opinion of these two emerging WRs for this week:

Decker @GBP or Julio @SEA?

I'm leaning Julio because I think he's the better player and is slowly emerging, but Decker is very safe for 5-10 looks and has upside himself. I just don't like his matchup on paper against Woodson, Williams and Co. Although GBP has been near the bottom of the league in fantasy points given up to WRs so far this year. Stud safety Nick Collins is out, and I wonder if Tramon Williams is still nursing an injury. I have no clue about Seattle D except that their ranking against WRs this year isn't much better than Green Bay's.

 

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