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RB to Exploit-Avoid Week 5 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Hey everyone,



This week I did some different angles so it’s not just focused on the running game. Primarily with the bye weeks and a lot of flex spots it makes sense to try and read into the passing games and WRs that might be around as well. Most owners will not have a lot of choices this week with bye issues so instead of trying to find a lot of sleeper RBs I included a whole bunch of passing numbers for the defenses and also targets where I felt it was a good idea to discuss.



I haven’t talked to you guys in a while to set the stage for whatever I am writing that week so let me just say a few quick things so you can enjoy this. I included the yards allowed per carry next to the teams listed and also what they allow in rushing TDs per game. I did this because it has been 4 weeks now and we can start to see trends. it should be easy for you guys to catch on to how I set this up.



I also want to say that things got a little hairy after some of the games last week so I want to remind folks that this thread is not about MOP being right or wrong all the time and I hope the last 10 years has shown that I don’t write this to rub it in peoples face anytime I pick a sleeper that pans out or an upset that comes true; that’s not why I write this. This thread started because I was competing in so many leagues and owned almost all the starting RBs after a while and cheat sheets alone just were not telling me anything. So rather than post a WDIS thread I share my thoughts on the games and then get the feedback from the board. You shouldn’t need to ask WDIS when you can gather the info up and also learn from what others are thinking in here. We have strayed away form that and I’ll take the blame for it but let’s get things back on track in here.



And on that note I have peppered in a lot of questions this week in the thread. I am doing this to promote discussion so if you have a different view of things by all means speak up but also bring some statistical analysis is you can or you can always just say “My gut tells me”...that’s perfectly fine and sometimes I do it as well when I can’t point to hard numbers.



Let’s get to the games and get into the good stuff.





New Orleans(4.6/.5TD) at Carolina (5.2/TD) Odds:(+6) (52)



We’ll start with the Saints. Pierre Thomas is not getting a lot of touches but he is on pace for almost 1,000 combined rushing and receiving yards. I would love to think his role will be diminished as the season progresses and they grow more comfortable with Ingram but the reality is this a 3 headed attack and you have Chris Ivory getting ready to come off the PUP list and Coach Sean has said he would like to get Ivory involved when that happens. Thomas so far has 27 carries for 127 yds and 11 receptions for 109 thru the air. Mark Ingram has 53 carries but only 184 yards avg only 3.5 ypc and 1 rushing TD. He has 4 receptions for zero yards. Darren Sproles meanwhile continues to light it up and is on pace right now for 96 receptions, 1,400 total yards and 8 Touchdowns. You talk about the steal of the draft, he has to be a contender for where most picked him up. With Carolina being gashed by Matt Forte to the tune of 200+ yards, MJD racked up 122, and even James Starks was able to run for 85 yards on only 9 carries. Sproles is a must play right now. I know owners of Ingram are going to prop him up again this week but until he is a regular part of the ground game and not just getting some extra carries when they are ahead; folks you have a guy that offers nothing in the passing game to this point and is a 1 dimensional part time back, let him sit on the bench until otherwise.



Supposedly Devery Henderson was on the field last week for over 60 snaps and I don’t think he had any targets and certainly no receptions on the day. Robert Meachem was also lined up on a lot of snaps. Marques Colston was supposed to be involved in the offense but he only was in on about 20 snaps so he still is not all the way back and I wouldn’t start him until you actually know he is going to see a lot of targets or snaps. Colston had 3 targets last week. The board love for Lance Moore is high but you need to know he was only on the filed for about 33 snaps so I’m not sure if he was injured or not as he he did see 6 targets making good on 5 of them but he was a disappointment for most owners last week after he did so well late the week before. The guy who is racking targets is Jimmy Graham who had 14 of them last week.



The Panthers have not stopped many teams and they have a very deceptive pass defense that I want to highlight. We know they get gashed running the ball so we overlook their pass defense and overall they rate pretty high because folks are busy running the football. The league avg for pass attempts against a defense is about 140 over the first 4 weeks. The Panthers have only had to defend the pass 95 times in 4 games so again that emphasizes that teams are not trying that hard to throw on them and I think we can all agree that the Saints are going to put them to the test this weekend, no way they only throw the ball 25 times. The Panthers also are allowing 8 yards per attempt and the league avg is roughly 6 so they are a good 2 yards over the league avg and I expect the Saints to have no problems chucking the ball around.



When we talk about DWill and JStew I can sum it up like this. Even when they have a good day running the football they are pretty much useless. Why? Because the Panthers did not hand the ball to these guys when they got close to the end zone. In fact at the end of the 1st Q/start of the 2nd Q, Carolina had a couple cracks at the end zone an they simply had Cam Newton run it in both attempts. Same thing later in the game. Newton has 4 rushing TD I believe and neither of the RB have any that I can recall. I wouldn’t waste my time. The Saints give up about 4.6 a clip but the RBs haven’t racked up a lot on them including Tate-82, MJD-84, not much outside of that and Forte did his damage thru the air. Some of you will be forced to start these guys because of bye weeks, good luck with that.



Steve Smith had an outstanding game last week, but would you believe me if I told you that he didn’t have the most targets on his team? Must have been Greg Olsen, right? Nope, the target leader last week was Naanee with 11, St Smith had 10, Greg Olsen 7 and LaFell 6. New Orleans is not known as a lock down cover team so I wouldn’t think Panther receivers are a bad option this week. Of course it would be better for them if they tried to control the clock here and limit the Saints who are back on the road after traveling to Jax last week, a game they had to pull away late in order to win. I would love to call Carolina in an upset but the Saints offense is getting better and Carolina can’t stop anyone so a high powered offense like New Orleans should tear them apart.



Final Score: New Orleans 34...Carolina 21





Cincinnati (3.1/.75 TD) at Jacksonville (4.0/.5TD) Odds:(-2.5) (37)



The Bengals should be getting Robbie Williams back on their OL, he is a solid RG and should help pave the way for the backs. Williams has been serving a 4 game suspension. Cedric Benson last week managed 100 yards and has now done that twice on the season. He is on pace for his usual 300+ carries, 1,200 yds and only 4 TDs. he is looking at a 3 game suspension himself but it doesn’t look like that will happen before next week as his legal team and the player’s union is asking a lot of questions about the legality of the charges and whether he should be suspended when he was a free agent during the lockout...welcome to Mr Goodell’s Neighborhood.



With the Bengals working out so many backs I really would not put a lot of stock in Bernard Scott right now who continues to get a miniscule amount of touches. I want to focus on the Cinci defense because they are shutting down the run and they are playing great pass defense. Many questioned the quality of their opponents but they made Buffalo look pretty normal last week after they lit up several teams along the way to Cincinnati. The have faced McCoy, Orton, Alex Smith, and now Fitzpatrick so I don’t think Blaine Gabbert suddenly lights them up. The Bengals have 10 sacks on the season and they have held opposing backs in check although McGahee managed 100 yards and a TD.



Maurice Jones Drew is really the offense for Jacksonville and Mike Thomas is a decent WR3 for owners but he offers little upside despite a good number of targets. People might overlook the fact Jason Hill had 9 targets last week and also Mercedes Lewis had 6 targets and watched Zach Miller take away 1 big target at the end zone but I think Lewis makes a good buy low right now because he hauled in 3 catches on those 6 targets. I don’t think Hill will keep seeing 9 targets a game and I would also like to see the Jags get the ball more to MJD out of the backfield. Hopefully that happens soon. Meanwhile I can get Cinci with points in a game I like them to win. they have a solid defense where Jacskonville has an average defense but certainly not horrible.



Final Score: Cincinnati 17...Jacksonville 14





Tennessee (3.2/.25 TD) at Pittsburgh (4.8/.75 TD) Odds:(-8)...now is (-3.5)(40)



I’m actually going to start with Pittsburgh because they are taking a lot of heat and I think people are going to start making assumptions that might not be founded. They are having problems shutting down the run against Arian Foster and Ray Rice, hey take a number as most are having that problem in the NFL. They also lost LB-James Harrison with a broken orbital and he might miss several weeks. The Titans however are not rolling out the same OL that Houston did so therefore I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that Chris Johnson will produce another 100 yds on the ground this week. He has a better chance now than when we all looked at the schedule back in June but you still have reservations about him and a deceptive offense.



Questions for the Shaks: Is this a statement game for Chris Johnson? Can he rip off 150/2TD?



The Titans look like they have a passing game but I want to highlight that Hasselbeck was 10 for 20 last week and they simply were able to use their defense to set things up and overall they are going to struggle without Kenny Britt on offense. The Cook TD was kind of a fluke IMO, not taking anything away from Cook but what a missed tackle and I don’t see that happening on a weekly basis so don’t chase points that aren’t there. Hass threw 3 TDs but again he only completed 50% of his passes against Cleveland. The Steelers are giving up less than 9 first downs thru the air each week, they are doing outstanding at shutting the passing game down on defense. The big problem has been them not getting interceptions as they have ZERO picks on the season, that can’t stay like that forever. I think Hass is in for a rough afternoon this week.



Antonio Brown continues to have a lot of targets and last week had 11 of them. Sabertooth did an outstanding breakdown of his targets week by week and I would encourage you to check in over there. Brown had more targets than Wallace, Ward, and Sanders combined. The Titans have an interesting stat on their pass defense. How many WRs do you think have gotten over 60 yards receiving this season? Try NONE! They have a solid defense, there is no way around that so I would not be expecting huge numbers from the Steelers but I do think their defense will wake up this week and force some turnovers that should set them up on a short field at least a couple times.



Isaac Redman is likely to start but the Steelers have a lot of injuries to their starting OL. They do get back a couple players this week and signed Max Starks but I’m not sure any of that is helpful other than they have some bodies to throw out there. I think Moore was injured last week as was Mendenhall but the injuries are not expected to keep these guys out for long periods of time.



Question: What do you all think of Isaac Redman this week with a banged up OL and a tough Titans defense that is pretty stingy?



Final Score: Pittsburgh 20...Tennessee 17...this is not a game I would bet much on but my gut says the Steelers will win to get some respect. Titans are not there yet.







Kansas City (4.0/1.25 TD) at Indy (3.8/1.5TD) Odds:(-2.5)(38.5)



Cassel last week was 18 for 29 but wasted 4 targets on L.McClain. Thomas Jones is a waste of roster space right now. Dexter McCluster? Where are his supporters at? Guy had 7 for 26 on the ground and then gets 3/12 in the receiving dept. This guy is going to kill owners trying to stick with him right now. Jackie Battle was in the game late and has had fumbling problems in the past but maybe Haley feels he has few options left which is true. I would like to see Battle get 10 carries this week in some real game situations but I’m not the coach so we’ll just keep watching and he’s a name to add to your sleeper list.



The Chiefs have an avg pass defense but they have allowed 10 passing touchdowns so opposing QBs have been enjoying a lot of points off them. You wouldn’t know that last week with McNabb but they are ripe to throw on. The Colts would have been better served had they stuck with Addai who looked good early but then barely got any carries in the 2nd half. Factor in Delone Carter splitting carries with him and it’s just a mess. I had high hopes for him last week and think Addai will still have some surprise weeks but there won’t be a lot of rhyme or reason as to when. He is at home this week, the Chiefs are not terrible in run defense but they are down so many play makers right now that I don’t expect them to hold up well over the course of the entire season.



Final Score: Indy 17...Kansas City 14







Philadelphia (5.3/.75TD) at Buffalo (4.9/TD) Odds: (+3) (49)



So the McCoy express gets right back on track this week in Buffalo. Both defenses have some issues but they also have some stats you might not be aware of. Opposing QB ratings against Philly avg out to 106.7 which is awful for all the money they spent and the talent they have collected. They have allowed 10 TDs vs 2 Int which again is terrible but then you look at what opposing WRs have done against them and you are shocked when you read Roddy White 3/23/TD, Julio Jones 2/29, H.Nicks 3/25, they are far from a lock that your WR will blow up against them. Buffalo has a lot of talent in the passing game but last week the distribution of targets went St Johnson-6, Donald Jones-8, Nelson only 3 and Brad Smith had 4.



The Bills only have 4 sacks on the season but they also have 8 interceptions and their key to staying in this game will be their ability to create turnovers for the offense to get some easy points. Denarius Moore 5-145-TD, AJ Green 4-118, Wes Welker 16-217-2TDs...Eagles WRs should have a field day.



I think both Shady McCoy and Fred Jackson are strong plays this week and both have a good chance to be in the top5 this week. I am going with Philly to win the game, just feel like they have too much offense and will be able to expose Buffalo some this weekend.



Question: How confident are you in Buffalo WRs after Steve Johnson?



Final Score: Philadelphia 37...Buffalo 21





Oakland (5.9/1.25TD) at Houston (4.9/.75TD) open (-8) Odds:(-6) (49)



With Andre Johnson on the shelf for at least the next couple weeks I think you will see a shift to get the RBs more involved and I expect an increase in the number of targets for Arian Foster. Sure the Jacob Jones and Kevin Walters of the world will get a few extra looks but Foster can change the game and I think they will make good use of him other than 30 carries a game. Oakland is allowing RBs to rack up points whether it is on the ground or thru the air, they have a real challenege stopping opposing RBs.



For Oakland you obviously are going to start DMC with confidence as the Texans are not super with run defense but teams tend to abandon it after a while. If you are interested in the Oakland passing game you might not get much this week. The Texans are pretty good at stopping the pass and they only allow 5.8 yds per attempt. They have allowed 5 TD vs 4 Int and overall they play some decent defense when they defend the pass. The Raiders distribution on targets last week reads DHB-7, Derek Hagan-5(waste), Denarius Moore-5, and Jacoby Ford-2. Kevin Boss also had 5 targets. Oakland is not the best team on the road so I probably lean heavy towards the Texans in this one although there could be a slight letdown after dropping the AFC Champs last week.



Finally I want to talk about Matt Schaub. I’m starting to feel as though he will never be the guy to lead the Texans either into the playoffs or on a deep run. His stats are not glaringly bad but he seems to make dumb decisions at crucial time like when he threw the key interception in the New Orleans game 2 weeks ago and even this past week I felt he missed some targets and could have done a better job. He is not a difference maker in FF but I want to stick to NFL analysis and right now I would not have him in the top10 in the NFL, maybe outside of the top12-15 even.



Question: Am I alone when it comes to Matt Schaub?



Final Score: Houston 27...Oakland 20





Arizona (3.6/TD) at Minnesota (3.3/.75TD) Odds: (-2.5) (45)



Beanie Wells had a career day last week against the Giants of all teams. I was impressed with what I saw but I think the Vikings are even better stopping the run and outside of Blount finding 70 yds and a TD most of the other backs have been largely ineffective. Wells had some success inside domes in 2009 with trips to St Louis and Detroit but the Vikings are much better at stopping the run than those teams and he was there(MN) once but obviously did not get many carries with a 1 carry for negative 2 yards. Obviously he either was injured in the game or wasn’t ready to play. I would temper some enthusiasm and be happy that he will have some soft games ahead of him on the schedule.



Arizona has a subpar pass defense but Minnesota is no threat to really exploit things. Fitz had 11 targets last week, Heap and Doucet each had 6. Heap has started to see a lot more targets with 17 over the past 2 weeks. If that guy is still floating around on your WW you should obviously grab him with bye weeks upon us now. The Vikings don’t really have a strong pass defense and that might be the difference in this game. The Cards will have a challenge stopping ADP but with little coming at them in the passing game I think they can focus in on the run which they are not terrible at stopping anyways. I wouldn’t put ADP in the top5 this week, maybe a little challenge for him to rack up a ton of points.



The Vikes spread it around week by week, the latest hot guy on their team is Visanthe Shiancoe with 8 targets last week and his role has been growing. Harvin had 67 yds rushing last week so maybe we should define him as a flex RB, j/k. He also had 7 targets and 42 yds receiving on 5 receptions. I take AZ and the points until Minnesota proves they can win a game. Losing to KC last week? Awful.



Final Score: Arizona 24...Minnesota 17





Seattle (3.2/1.25TD) at (NY Giants) (4.0/1.25TD) (-10) (43)



Guess everyone knows that Seattle doesn’t travel very well the past 3-4+ seasons as this line seems pretty rich. I know Seattle has a lot of folks that feel they are pretty tough stopping the run and even though Turner had a couple touchdowns last week he still was like 25/70 on he ground so overall they didn’t really let him run all over them. I do think Bradshaw and Jacobs can post numbers like Mendenhall and Redman did in week 2 when Seattle allowed both of them to score and were not as good as they usually are at home. The Seahawks have a bunch of receivers in the 4-6 range for targets but TJax is going to have problems this weekend. The more he throws the ball the harder it will be for the Seahawks to stay in this game. I don’t see Marshawn Lynch approaching anything close to what Wells did last week.



I would love to poke fun of the Giants for winning the game in the fashion they did last week but the Cards still let them waltz into the end zone and could not answer. Nicks had an incredible 14 targets and Cruz also had 10. Manningham only had 5 and I think he was still feeling the effects of his concussion form a week earlier and I expect him to resume his role as the 2nd option in the passing game. But don’t worry because even if here were the WR3 in the slot he has was outstanding in that role a year ago. Manningham to me is a perfect buy low as owners have given up on him. Look for Bradshaw and Jacobs to get plenty of touches once they get a nice lead in the 2nd half.



Final Score: NY Giants 24...Seattle 10





Tampa Bay (4.0/.5TD) at San Fran (3.3) Odds: (-3) (41) opened at (-1)



Let’s begin with an interesting stat I found on the Bucs and their pass defense. I thought they were a solid pass defense and a shaky run defense but look at some of these numbers. The last 2 weeks they have allowed Turner, Addai/Carter to total up 29 carries for only 82 yards and no rushing TD. In fact outside of ADP getting 2 rushing TDs on them no other RB has crosses the goal line. I am thinking that Gore won’t have a repeat this week. Last year at home he was 12/23 on the ground but did reel in a few catches.



Now check this out in the Bucs passing defense and in particular look at what the WR1 and WR2 have combined for against these guys...Det-11/148/2TDs, MN-10/105, Atl-15/255 and Indy-6/205/2TDs...does San Fran have anyone that can do some of this to the Bucs? Maybe the TE Vernon Davis, not real sure but the Bucs have some major holes in that secondary and I pointed that out in the TB/Indy game recap if you all have a subscription you can check that out but the main culprit IMO right now is Aquib Talib who is having a rough season and dropped a pick 6 last week.



Question: Is Crabtree or Morgan a sleeper this week?



San Fran is the one team who has not yielded a rushing TD all year. They have been stingy to opposing RBs allowing an avg of 12/35 on the ground per week. Blount will be lucky to scrape 50 yards but I do think the Bucs will take to the air and perhaps he ends up with a short TD plunge to salvage what could be a tough week. Last year he was 25/82 on the ground so it will be tough sledding but guys like McCoy last week are not going to gain a lot of yds on the 49ers defense. You gotta be a smash mouth type to have a chance against a great tackling Niners defense. I like the Bucs this week to survive and win the game late on the heroics of Josh Freeman.



Final Score: Tampa Bay 17...San Fran 14





San Diego (4.1/.5TD) at Denver (3.7/.75TD) Odds: (+4)(47)



This is one of my upsets this week. I think San Diego has been playing subpar, they have mounting injuries on offense, and Denver is starting to show some signs of life in the offense with Brandon Lloyd coming back. Yes the Broncos pass defense has been pretty wretched and Green Bay tore them apart but the Bolts don’t have the same array of weapons right now and VJax is threatening to not play. I think Champ Bailey will find the field this week but even if he doesn’t San Diego will have to use their RBs to make things happen.



Last week they had 13 targets between Tolbert(8) and Mathews(5) so I would expect the extra targets to go to both of them. Ryan Mathews is starting to pull away in the number of rushing attempts per week but Tolbert is still getting the majority of red zone touches which makes both of them relevant. I’m sure most need to start both of them this week but I don’t think they hit their normal averages.



Question: Do you think the Bolts will funnel more plays thru the RBs thus making them both great options this week?



The Bolts have an unusually low number of pass attempts against their defense. Look for Denver to try and test them with Lloyd and Decker. I also think Willis McGahee is another good option this week. Knowshon Moreno actually fell off his stationary bike last week on the sideline; what else do you need to know? Coach Fox anointed McGahee the starter but at some point this season they will rotate Moreno back into the mix more. He is cleared to practice in full so it’s not injuries why he is not playing.



Final Score: Denver 24...San Diego 20





NY Jets (42./1.5TD) at New England (4.8/TD) Odds: (-9) (49)



This is another upset special IMO and I really am talking form the gut. On the surface it looks like the Pats should blow them out because of their high powered offense but have the Pats really looked sharp the last 2 weeks? Especially their defense looks bad. Teams don’t stick with the run because they fall behind but I don’t see the Jets abandoning the run unless they truly cannot stop the Pats. Outside of Miles Austin and Dex Bryant week 1 they have shut most of the opposing WRs down. I have more questions than answers with this game so I’ll ask them and see what you think.



Questions: Are the Jets really not good against the run or did DMC skew the stats week 3? Do you think the Jets will be passed on all day by Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski?



The Patriots IMO are simply a team that will be hard to figure out who to start at RB most weeks. Danny Woodhead suffered an injury last week early on but the pats overall did well running the football as I said they would.



Queston: Is Ridley now the guy or is the Shark Pool a little too quick to anoint him as the savior?



Final Score: NY Jets 30...New England 28



Green Bay (3.7/.25TD) at Atlanta (3.6/TD) Odds: (+5.5) (54)



I have the Packers winning this in a blowout similar to what they did in the playoffs last year. It’s not a secret that the Falcons are prone to allow big plays in their secondary with a 7.7 yps thru the air. Green bay is going to line up 4 and 5 wide, put Aaron Rodgers in that shotgun and I expect another huge day from Rodgers and the rest of the Packers. I love what Jordy nelson has done with 3 TDs already. I don’t know that we will ever be sure that he is the WR2 in this offense as they spread it around a lot bu ti can tell you I watched him early in the game involved a lot in 2 WR sets. I did the game recap for GB/Den last week and I pointed out all the different WR sets and where the WRs were coming form on their big receptions and touchdowns as I felt it was important. The stats guy on Monday thinks James Jones was a big part of the offense and scored a TD but the reality is he lined up mostly in 4 and 5 wide formations whereas Jordy Nelson was involved in even 2 WR sets and that was what he scored his 50 yd TD out of. I think that information is valuable and something you should be looking for.



The Falcons...there are a lot of 2-2 teams that were in the playoffs last year and I am afraid the Falcons might not be going back. I say that because they are in a tough division and they are trying to be like the packers by having a high octane offense but the reality is they are having problems running the football. Yes Turner had 2 TDs last week but he only had about 70 yds rushing and he looks like he has lost a step. This is an excellent week to trade him IMO as owners are desperate with bye weeks-non shark leagues of course.



Did you know Roddy White is tied with Brandon Marshall for the lead in league drops with 5? Julio Jones has been spectacular and figures to only get better. The good thing this year is it looks like both Jones and AJ Green are going to flourish in this league for a long time. Wouldn’t you have loved to have the 1 and 2 spot in this past rookie draft for dynasty? You would scoop them both up and have possible starters for the next 10 years. Green bay is pretty good at stopping the run so I don’t expect big numbers from Turner but he may fare all right since the Falcons will be playing from behind.



James Starks? Ryan Grant? Who knows but Grant is cleared to practice and I imagine both will see some time. It’s foolish to pick one over the other and the Packers don’t call off the dogs and start running int he 3rd Q when they get a lead. I like Green bay by a lot but it should be noted that their secondary gives up a lot of big plays so I would expect Matty Ryan to have some big stats along with his WRs even if it is late in garbage time. Sorry Falconsfans.



Final Score: Green Bay 45...Atlanta 28...the over is looking pretty good here.



Chicago(5.1/.5TD) at Detroit (4.8/.25TD) Odds (-6) (48)



Let me tell you all the ways that Detroit is the better team. The offense is far superior to what the Bears do. Imagine Mike Martz with these WRs that Detroit has. but the fact is he doesn’t. major injury for the Bears has been the absence of Earl Bennett who does a lot of things for them with down field blocking, 3rd down security blanket, and he’s going to miss another game this week form the hit he took week 2 against the Saints. Bears are another 2-2 team from the playoffs last year that I think is going to miss the playoffs this season.



As bad as Detroit has been shutting down the run the Bears are equally as bad and also are getting torched in their secondary although they are without their starting Safety and have had to turn to Brandon Merriweather who you can see why the Pats cut him as he takes way too many chances. he thinks he is Ed Reed or the late great Sean Taylor because he played at the “U” but he isn’t close to those guys. The Lions on the other hand are good against the pass and have 7 interceptions already on the season. They only allow 5.5 yards per attempt as well so they should not have a problem shadowing the Bears very below average set of WRs. I don’t see how Chicago can win this game unless Matt Stafford gift wraps some turnovers to them. I still have a lot of questions with Stafford and I have tried to point out in any of their game recaps that I have covered that Stafford is usually working the short game until the Lions get a lead and then they turn him loose. What happened last week? He started off throwing a lot of incompletions and missing the short stuff. Lions were down 27-3 in that game and the week before they were down 20-0 so he is not there yet in terms of going to a Super Bowl IMO. But the Lions look like a playoff team and they are finding ways to win football games which is light years ahead of where they were just a couple years ago.



What about Forte and Best? Jahvid Best is never going ot be a conventional RB and I think as long as you play in PPR leagues he is an upside RB2. I wouldn’t want him as my only RB1 option but he has his moments. The OL is not great either in Detroit but they can usually get some pass protection for Matt Stafford. Forte ran for over 200 last week but that is mostly because Carolina has a very weak run defense. Forte is super talented and a dual threat but understand he is going to be up and down in this offense. I remember him doing well inside domes but i imagine the Lions are going to be very aware of him and probably try to shadow him with a LB and a Safety in the passing game. Unless the Bears can make Detroit pay thru some long balls to Devin Hester which doesn’t always happen, unless they can do that it will be along night for Bears fans. They have to get some pressure on Stafford as well and rattle his cage. I have been on the Detroit bandwagon since the season started, I ain’t getting off it now. Put me down for 9 in a row Lions fans as the NWO marches on!!!



Final Score: Detroit 27...Chicago 21

 
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Good column MOP

Here are my thoughts on the TEN/PIT game and answers to your questions

Questions for the Sharks: Is this a statement game for Chris Johnson? Can he rip off 150/2TD?

I think it would be wrong for CJ or the Titans to presume that...BUT I do think they should start the game by taking the pressure off Hass and putting it on the Steelers by using a HEAVY dose of Johnson & Ringer

Question: What do you all think of Isaac Redman this week with a banged up OL and a tough Titans defense that is pretty stingy?

Redman has looked very good so far this year - although it was not a full load and there is reasonable question to how he will respond to that (assuming Mendy is out which I think will be the case). While the Titans have been good on defense so far (let's not forget the opponents were JAX, BAL, DEN, and CLE so they haven't exactly proved much yet)I think the Steelers will run Redman at them and assuming Roethlisberger can stay on the field will shred that defense with Wallace and Brown

I think Pittsburgh wins in what could be a higher scoring game than you have suggested (if the weather is good and Roethlisberger is playing I would bet the over)

 
Good column MOP

Here are my thoughts on the TEN/PIT game and answers to your questions

Questions for the Sharks: Is this a statement game for Chris Johnson? Can he rip off 150/2TD?

I think it would be wrong for CJ or the Titans to presume that...BUT I do think they should start the game by taking the pressure off Hass and putting it on the Steelers by using a HEAVY dose of Johnson & Ringer

Question: What do you all think of Isaac Redman this week with a banged up OL and a tough Titans defense that is pretty stingy?

Redman has looked very good so far this year - although it was not a full load and there is reasonable question to how he will respond to that (assuming Mendy is out which I think will be the case). While the Titans have been good on defense so far (let's not forget the opponents were JAX, BAL, DEN, and CLE so they haven't exactly proved much yet)I think the Steelers will run Redman at them and assuming Roethlisberger can stay on the field will shred that defense with Wallace and Brown

I think Pittsburgh wins in what could be a higher scoring game than you have suggested (if the weather is good and Roethlisberger is playing I would bet the over)
TY Hook. I echo the Chris Johnson/Javon RInger combo meaning they need to start getting Ringer involved and turn that into a two prong attack where Ringer can take 8-10 carries a game. Johnson doesn't need 25 carries a game, in fact i would like to see him more in the 18-20 range with 4-5 receptions and get him in space.

 
IF Green bay is going to line up 4 and 5 wide, put Aaron Rodgers in that shotgun, then the RB will be Starks all day. Grant is in (generally) for the conventional pro sets, Starks is in on the Spread Offense



However............in last years play off game, it was Kuhn who got the touchdowns thrown to RB in the passing game. It could well be again.

 
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IF Green bay is going to line up 4 and 5 wide, put Aaron Rodgers in that shotgun, then the RB will be Starks all day. Grant is in (generally) for the conventional pro sets, Starks is in on the Spread Offense

However............in last years play off game, it was Kuhn who got the touchdowns thrown to RB in the passing game. It could well be again.
Good point Smack, with Grant out the Pack went 4 and 5 wide much of he 2nd half last week. That could impact Jones and Cobb as well if the Pack go a little more pro-style in their approach.
 
Question: Am I alone when it comes to Matt Schaub?
I've always thought of him this way. Kevin Kolb might be another version of him. Guys who in the right situation can put up decent fantasy stats, but are overrated as NFL QBs.
 
Ahmard Hall, the starting FB for Tennessee will be back for the Titans and Chris Johnson this week after serving a 4 game suspension for substance abuse. You hate to point to one thing and say "This is the reason" but Fullbacks cannot be discounted in the running game. I hope it helps Johnson get back on track.

 
'Ministry of Pain said:
Chicago(5.1/.5TD) at Detroit (4.8/.25TD) Odds (-6) (48)



Let me tell you all the ways that Detroit is the better team. The offense is far superior to what the Bears do. Imagine Mike Martz with these WRs that Detroit has. but the fact is he doesn’t. major injury for the Bears has been the absence of Earl Bennett who does a lot of things for them with down field blocking, 3rd down security blanket, and he’s going to miss another game this week form the hit he took week 2 against the Saints. Bears are another 2-2 team from the playoffs last year that I think is going to miss the playoffs this season.



As bad as Detroit has been shutting down the run the Bears are equally as bad and also are getting torched in their secondary although they are without their starting Safety and have had to turn to Brandon Merriweather who you can see why the Pats cut him as he takes way too many chances. he thinks he is Ed Reed or the late great Sean Taylor because he played at the “U” but he isn’t close to those guys. The Lions on the other hand are good against the pass and have 7 interceptions already on the season. They only allow 5.5 yards per attempt as well so they should not have a problem shadowing the Bears very below average set of WRs. I don’t see how Chicago can win this game unless Matt Stafford gift wraps some turnovers to them. I still have a lot of questions with Stafford and I have tried to point out in any of their game recaps that I have covered that Stafford is usually working the short game until the Lions get a lead and then they turn him loose. What happened last week? He started off throwing a lot of incompletions and missing the short stuff. Lions were down 27-3 in that game and the week before they were down 20-0 so he is not there yet in terms of going to a Super Bowl IMO. But the Lions look like a playoff team and they are finding ways to win football games which is light years ahead of where they were just a couple years ago.



What about Forte and Best? Jahvid Best is never going ot be a conventional RB and I think as long as you play in PPR leagues he is an upside RB2. I wouldn’t want him as my only RB1 option but he has his moments. The OL is not great either in Detroit but they can usually get some pass protection for Matt Stafford. Forte ran for over 200 last week but that is mostly because Carolina has a very weak run defense. Forte is super talented and a dual threat but understand he is going to be up and down in this offense. I remember him doing well inside domes but i imagine the Lions are going to be very aware of him and probably try to shadow him with a LB and a Safety in the passing game. Unless the Bears can make Detroit pay thru some long balls to Devin Hester which doesn’t always happen, unless they can do that it will be along night for Bears fans. They have to get some pressure on Stafford as well and rattle his cage. I have been on the Detroit bandwagon since the season started, I ain’t getting off it now. Put me down for 9 in a row Lions fans as the NWO marches on!!!



Final Score: Detroit 27...Chicago 21



Please post up any questions or comments, thanks and have a great weekend folks!
That's a very interesting note on Stafford. The Cowboys game is the only one I've seen so far.You mention "they turn him loose" . . . is the issue that the game plan / coaching staff or is it Stafford holding himself back?

 
Good stuff MOP-Man. It's a lot to read and I haven't finished yet (gonna print it out and read it on the crapper when I get home) Do you think this is the week the Jets unleash Joe McKnight? Don't you think McKnight will be the key to a lot of fantasy championships this year?

S.W.

 
Still down on Beanie? What more does he have to prove?

90 and a TD

93 and a TD

138 and 3 TDs

The guy is a freaking locomotive.

 
Nice job. Thanks.

Still don't love the new format but I think it is needed because of the bye week blues. I wish there was some Greens and Reds. Show us how you think are the best plays this week but again nice job. Sure will be fun to see what Redman can do. Would love to see him take over as the main back.

 
I like this comprehensive approach best. But I do miss the colors. Maybe just throw some in randomly?

Also, Chargers losing to the Broncos? :angry:

 
Thanks for the work MoP. A note for the Niners game - while SF has some quality replacements, their starting DT has a staph infection. How much of a hit their defense will take remains to be seen...but it will take a hit.

ETA - I agree you should throw some colors in there. If not to break it up a bit then just because it looks cool.

 
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MOP - I think a good addition and variation on the old format would be just to list the players at the end of the article - maybe Double Down (guys that are expected to perform well), Hold (huys worth a start but less likely upside), and Fold (loook elsewhere).

And maybe just game by game right above the score.

But it's your gig - do what you wanna do, Suzanne.

 
MoP, as always, I like your posts and look forward to them. That being said, I miss the old format. I miss the color coding, which I think forces you really to make a decision on which way to go with the RBs. Finally, I'd like to see you focus more on the run game as I really think that's your forte. Either way, a little MoP is better than none, but I do miss the old format.

 
'Ministry of Pain said:
Finally I want to talk about Matt Schaub. I’m starting to feel as though he will never be the guy to lead the Texans either into the playoffs or on a deep run. His stats are not glaringly bad but he seems to make dumb decisions at crucial time like when he threw the key interception in the New Orleans game 2 weeks ago and even this past week I felt he missed some targets and could have done a better job. He is not a difference maker in FF but I want to stick to NFL analysis and right now I would not have him in the top10 in the NFL, maybe outside of the top12-15 even.



Question: Am I alone when it comes to Matt Schaub?

Not at all, as a Schaub owner I sold just before the season because I had a sudden feeling that he isnt the answer, he just doesnt feel like anything special and im starting to question how much longer he will be in town. I know the last week of the waiver wire in my dynasty I will be grabbing T.J.Yates.
 
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'Ministry of Pain said:
Chicago(5.1/.5TD) at Detroit (4.8/.25TD) Odds (-6) (48)



Let me tell you all the ways that Detroit is the better team. The offense is far superior to what the Bears do. Imagine Mike Martz with these WRs that Detroit has. but the fact is he doesn't. major injury for the Bears has been the absence of Earl Bennett who does a lot of things for them with down field blocking, 3rd down security blanket, and he's going to miss another game this week form the hit he took week 2 against the Saints. Bears are another 2-2 team from the playoffs last year that I think is going to miss the playoffs this season.



As bad as Detroit has been shutting down the run the Bears are equally as bad and also are getting torched in their secondary although they are without their starting Safety and have had to turn to Brandon Merriweather who you can see why the Pats cut him as he takes way too many chances. he thinks he is Ed Reed or the late great Sean Taylor because he played at the "U" but he isn't close to those guys. The Lions on the other hand are good against the pass and have 7 interceptions already on the season. They only allow 5.5 yards per attempt as well so they should not have a problem shadowing the Bears very below average set of WRs. I don't see how Chicago can win this game unless Matt Stafford gift wraps some turnovers to them. I still have a lot of questions with Stafford and I have tried to point out in any of their game recaps that I have covered that Stafford is usually working the short game until the Lions get a lead and then they turn him loose. What happened last week? He started off throwing a lot of incompletions and missing the short stuff. Lions were down 27-3 in that game and the week before they were down 20-0 so he is not there yet in terms of going to a Super Bowl IMO. But the Lions look like a playoff team and they are finding ways to win football games which is light years ahead of where they were just a couple years ago.



What about Forte and Best? Jahvid Best is never going ot be a conventional RB and I think as long as you play in PPR leagues he is an upside RB2. I wouldn't want him as my only RB1 option but he has his moments. The OL is not great either in Detroit but they can usually get some pass protection for Matt Stafford. Forte ran for over 200 last week but that is mostly because Carolina has a very weak run defense. Forte is super talented and a dual threat but understand he is going to be up and down in this offense. I remember him doing well inside domes but i imagine the Lions are going to be very aware of him and probably try to shadow him with a LB and a Safety in the passing game. Unless the Bears can make Detroit pay thru some long balls to Devin Hester which doesn't always happen, unless they can do that it will be along night for Bears fans. They have to get some pressure on Stafford as well and rattle his cage. I have been on the Detroit bandwagon since the season started, I ain't getting off it now. Put me down for 9 in a row Lions fans as the NWO marches on!!!



Final Score: Detroit 27...Chicago 21 Please post up any questions or comments, thanks and have a great weekend folks!
That's a very interesting note on Stafford. The Cowboys game is the only one I've seen so far.You mention "they turn him loose" . . . is the issue that the game plan / coaching staff or is it Stafford holding himself back?
I think the game plan is to get him completing the short passes and then once he loosens up and gains confidence they turn him loose. He is not Aaron Rodgers...yet.

 
Good stuff MOP-Man. It's a lot to read and I haven't finished yet (gonna print it out and read it on the crapper when I get home) Do you think this is the week the Jets unleash Joe McKnight? Don't you think McKnight will be the key to a lot of fantasy championships this year?

S.W.
:lol: A long time ago we used to have several folks that would print and take to the crapper for reading material at work, helped make the day by go faster.

 
Good stuff MOP-Man. It's a lot to read and I haven't finished yet (gonna print it out and read it on the crapper when I get home) Do you think this is the week the Jets unleash Joe McKnight? Don't you think McKnight will be the key to a lot of fantasy championships this year?

S.W.
:lol: A long time ago we used to have several folks that would print and take to the crapper for reading material at work, helped make the day by go faster.
if you don't read while on the can, you have serious issues.
 
I put up a lot of questions, would love to get some feedback on some of those.

I'll try to do a color code tomorrow on the RBs, I understand.

 
Nice work. Prescient remarks on the SD-Den game. You commented you were sure most would have to start both Mathews and Tolbert. Bingo. Having Rice and Jones on bye leaves me with having to start both of them. t least this week I don't have to hem and haw which one to start alongside Rice. Hope you are right and one racks up the yards while the other racks up the scores and/or receptions.

 
I put up a lot of questions, would love to get some feedback on some of those. I'll try to do a color code tomorrow on the RBs, I understand.
"Questions for the Shaks: Is this a statement game for Chris Johnson? Can he rip off 150/2TD?"lol no. but maybe. but not really."Question: What do you all think of Isaac Redman this week with a banged up OL and a tough Titans defense that is pretty stingy?"nice flex2 start? ok flex1. "Question: How confident are you in Buffalo WRs after Steve Johnson?"i think id rather go naanee this week."Question: Am I alone when it comes to Matt Schaub?"id agree completely with the paragraph preceding this if you swapped kubiak for schaub. dude shoulda been fired years ago."Question: Is Crabtree or Morgan a sleeper this week?"sure, arent they all."Question: Do you think the Bolts will funnel more plays thru the RBs thus making them both great options this week? "yes"Queston: Is Ridley now the guy or is the Shark Pool a little too quick to anoint him as the savior?"i spent a lot of fa dollas on him but aint starting him if i can help it. hes no denarius moore.hope that helps.
 
Question: What do you all think of Isaac Redman this week with a banged up OL and a tough Titans defense that is pretty stingy?

Although Redman has looked better than Mendy when given the chance this year, I'm not believing he is going to cure the running game problems in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's offense has looked absolutely atrocious in every facet, except maybe some deep connections with Wallace. I think Redman made the best of his opportunities when Mendenhall is out of the game and the defense was not keying on the run. Maybe I'm wrong but we will see if Redman as starting running back is as effective as Redman with a couple series each game.

I have Mendenhall and the fact that he is injured makes it a bit easier to bench him like he probably should be anyway. I didn't go after Redman because I don't think their offense is going to look good at all with a banged up Roth and that swiss cheese oline.

 
Question: Is Crabtree or Morgan a sleeper this week?

I think they both could be. I have crabtree and am playing him as my WR3 cause of Bye week issues. In the eagles game last week, Crabby looked great. Probably the best I have seen him. Alex smith is playing his best ball and TB DEF has been allowing passing TDs. Add in the fact SF also has been giving up some big passing plays and this game could be one of the higher scoring games of the week... :banned:

 
"Question: Is Ridley now the guy or is the Shark Pool a little too quick to anoint him as the savior?"

I put in a claim on Ridley because the NE RB situation is one I would like to be wrong about. I think BGE sticks around and Ridley is just another attachment on the Pat's Swiss Army Knife. Ironic that people are sorta looking for "last year's BGE" when BGE is still in the mix. I'd love to be wrong though...

 
Look at that, MOP is using stats now. The push for an FBG staff spot is on. And the new content actually makes this thread worth reading.

 
Good stuff MOP-Man. It's a lot to read and I haven't finished yet (gonna print it out and read it on the crapper when I get home) Do you think this is the week the Jets unleash Joe McKnight? Don't you think McKnight will be the key to a lot of fantasy championships this year?

S.W.
:lol: A long time ago we used to have several folks that would print and take to the crapper for reading material at work, helped make the day by go faster.
Thanks Mop-Man, you definitely enhanced my experience in the crapper. But you didn't answer my question about McKnight. I have a huge McBoner for this guy. What color would you give him? I'm thinking green. As in the color of money. C'mon Mop-Man, I need your opinion on this.S.W.

 
Good stuff MOP-Man. It's a lot to read and I haven't finished yet (gonna print it out and read it on the crapper when I get home) Do you think this is the week the Jets unleash Joe McKnight? Don't you think McKnight will be the key to a lot of fantasy championships this year?

S.W.
:lol: A long time ago we used to have several folks that would print and take to the crapper for reading material at work, helped make the day by go faster.
Thanks Mop-Man, you definitely enhanced my experience in the crapper. But you didn't answer my question about McKnight. I have a huge McBoner for this guy. What color would you give him? I'm thinking green. As in the color of money. C'mon Mop-Man, I need your opinion on this.S.W.
I think Shonn Greene will look better this week and also LT is going to catch several balls. McKnight is an afterthought IMO.

 
'Ministry of Pain said:
'Shark Week said:
Good stuff MOP-Man. It's a lot to read and I haven't finished yet (gonna print it out and read it on the crapper when I get home) Do you think this is the week the Jets unleash Joe McKnight? Don't you think McKnight will be the key to a lot of fantasy championships this year?

S.W.
:lol: A long time ago we used to have several folks that would print and take to the crapper for reading material at work, helped make the day by go faster.
Thanks Mop-Man, you definitely enhanced my experience in the crapper. But you didn't answer my question about McKnight. I have a huge McBoner for this guy. What color would you give him? I'm thinking green. As in the color of money. C'mon Mop-Man, I need your opinion on this.S.W.
I think Shonn Greene will look better this week and also LT is going to catch several balls. McKnight is an afterthought IMO.
Leave it to MOP to kill my boner.S.W.

 
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I like this comprehensive approach best. But I do miss the colors. Maybe just throw some in randomly?Also, Chargers losing to the Broncos? :angry:
#### the haters. This is awesome. :thumbup: much better to give a feel for how you think the game will flow that a few colored backs.
 
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Keep in mind the weather could come into play big time in the Cincy/Jax game. It could be a repeat of Carolina/Jax game.

 

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