Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB12 vs WR12, RB24 vs WR24, and so on... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
This isn't really actionable on its own, but using ONLY this data, we can see two things.
One, having a RB1 is more valuable than a WR1.
The drop-off from rb12 to rb24 is 54 points. Rb24 to rb36 is 40. From Wr12 to wr24 is only 49 and to wr36 is only 32 more.
In other words, if you start wr12 and rb24, and i start rb12 and wr 24, I'll outscore you 423 to 418.
If you start rb36 and rb48 with wr12 and wr24, and i start with wr36 and wr48 but rb12 and rb24, I'll beat you 703 to 673.
Drafts don't actually work like that, but it basically comes down to this - Zero RB only works if you piece together strong rb production. Which makes sense, because good rbs are scarce and if you don't have them your team will suck.
It also makes a good case for cheaply handcuffing when you have a flex spot, and even more so if you have multiple flex spots. Rb depth is important but spending early round draft capital on a third rb means fewer chances at the higher scoring wr tiers. Taking a guy like Mixon early and drafting Chris Evans/Samaje Perine late gives you that depth while letting you draft as many early wrs as possible.
But Jones/Dillon or Zeke/Pollard cost you two early picks. The discount you get on the starter has to be pretty significant to justify giving up on that wr2/wr3 range.
Third, there's a pretty big dropoff after wr48. That's somewhat arbitrary unless you always play the same guy every week and never play the hot hand. But taking a guy in the rb3/ rb4 range doesn't make sense until you've loaded up on receivers with top 48 potential.
That doesn't mean you should start rb/rb/wr/wr/wr/wr/wr/wr regardless. You didn't mention what rb1 or rb5 score, vs wr1 and wr5.
Tldr - get strong rbs with cheap handcuffs to fill your starting spots, and load up on good receivers before going back to rb.
One, having a RB1 is more valuable than a WR1.
The drop-off from rb12 to rb24 is 54 points. Rb24 to rb36 is 40. From Wr12 to wr24 is only 49 and to wr36 is only 32 more.
In other words, if you start wr12 and rb24, and i start rb12 and wr 24, I'll outscore you 423 to 418.
If you start rb36 and rb48 with wr12 and wr24, and i start with wr36 and wr48 but rb12 and rb24, I'll beat you 703 to 673.
Drafts don't actually work like that, but it basically comes down to this - Zero RB only works if you piece together strong rb production. Which makes sense, because good rbs are scarce and if you don't have them your team will suck.
It also makes a good case for cheaply handcuffing when you have a flex spot, and even more so if you have multiple flex spots. Rb depth is important but spending early round draft capital on a third rb means fewer chances at the higher scoring wr tiers. Taking a guy like Mixon early and drafting Chris Evans/Samaje Perine late gives you that depth while letting you draft as many early wrs as possible.
But Jones/Dillon or Zeke/Pollard cost you two early picks. The discount you get on the starter has to be pretty significant to justify giving up on that wr2/wr3 range.
Third, there's a pretty big dropoff after wr48. That's somewhat arbitrary unless you always play the same guy every week and never play the hot hand. But taking a guy in the rb3/ rb4 range doesn't make sense until you've loaded up on receivers with top 48 potential.
That doesn't mean you should start rb/rb/wr/wr/wr/wr/wr/wr regardless. You didn't mention what rb1 or rb5 score, vs wr1 and wr5.
Tldr - get strong rbs with cheap handcuffs to fill your starting spots, and load up on good receivers before going back to rb.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Good point! I will do the same as above, but use PPG this time. Derrick Henry finished as RB22, but was RB1 in PPG.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I only did 10 years instead of 20, but here are the numbers, in terms of PPG. I added RB1 and WR1 this time.
RB1 = 25.5, WR1 = 23.2
RB12 = 15.5, WR12 = 16.4
RB24 = 12.6, WR24 = 13.9
RB36 = 10.3, WR36 = 12.1
RB48 = 8.6, WR48 = 10.7
RB60 = 7.2, WR60 = 9.4
Look at that drop from RB1 to RB12!
RB1 = 25.5, WR1 = 23.2
RB12 = 15.5, WR12 = 16.4
RB24 = 12.6, WR24 = 13.9
RB36 = 10.3, WR36 = 12.1
RB48 = 8.6, WR48 = 10.7
RB60 = 7.2, WR60 = 9.4
Look at that drop from RB1 to RB12!
ratbast
Footballguy
So if a starting lineup is 2rbs and 3wrs, I might correlate rb 12 with wr 18. Or something like that. One could adapt the ratio to allow flex construction, but that would take some different math to recognize the roster value.
im just brainstorming, not sure if this makes sense.
im just brainstorming, not sure if this makes sense.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
No offense but I think that without baking in ADP this doesn’t do much to help. I did an exercise using a handful of projections last year, 2021 projections only, so it would be interesting to see if the tiers you’re using translate.
So assuming a handful of successful people had projections that correlate to historical values, this is what I found.
Caveats: obviously many of the projections turned out to be wrong
and I was focusing on drafting at the 11.
QB and WR value over last starter were very close in terms of ADP vs positional advantage. RB at the 1/2 turn and the 3/4 turn were both similar in terms of minimizing the negative projection vs a WR. WR became, for me, essentially a value baseline.
Other than than the top few RBs , WRs score more points compared to their ADP. Kelce’s projections were worthy of a top 3 pick. He’s was projecting as a weekly 8 point positional advantage.
My league is 2 RB, 2 WR and 2 flex. Most of the projections gave me 30 or so RBs and 42 WRs for those 6 starters. Last starter was flex 72.
For me, drafting at 11, I had tiers set up and a plan at every position essentially other than at WR where I knew I would always have value.
So you’re not wrong but draft cost and format are everything.
In full PPR, depending on how many you need to start, you’re probably going to maximize your projection by not drafting a third rb until you have 4 WRs.
Then the games start and projections go out the window!
Mid to low RB 2s that you gave up a 4th round pick on are on the waiver wire.
So assuming a handful of successful people had projections that correlate to historical values, this is what I found.
Caveats: obviously many of the projections turned out to be wrong
and I was focusing on drafting at the 11.QB and WR value over last starter were very close in terms of ADP vs positional advantage. RB at the 1/2 turn and the 3/4 turn were both similar in terms of minimizing the negative projection vs a WR. WR became, for me, essentially a value baseline.
Other than than the top few RBs , WRs score more points compared to their ADP. Kelce’s projections were worthy of a top 3 pick. He’s was projecting as a weekly 8 point positional advantage.
My league is 2 RB, 2 WR and 2 flex. Most of the projections gave me 30 or so RBs and 42 WRs for those 6 starters. Last starter was flex 72.
For me, drafting at 11, I had tiers set up and a plan at every position essentially other than at WR where I knew I would always have value.
So you’re not wrong but draft cost and format are everything.
In full PPR, depending on how many you need to start, you’re probably going to maximize your projection by not drafting a third rb until you have 4 WRs.
Then the games start and projections go out the window!
Mid to low RB 2s that you gave up a 4th round pick on are on the waiver wire.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I also play in a 2RB, 2WR, 2Flex league, and it's PPR. Last year, I tried too hard to fill those flex spots with RB's. This year, I will not make the same mistake.
joey
Footballguy
This times a million. A decade ago I used to do my own variation on projections and tiers and use historical data and averages…and all of that. And that time and effort didn’t correlate to better results for me (maybe I suck) but it just seemed like too much luck for me to do anything more than take FBG's consensus rankings and simply move a couple of guys I liked (or disliked) up or down a few slots and call them “my rankings” and then do a bunch mocks to get a feel for ADP and come up with a couple of variations of most-likely plans. And then work my ### off in season with waivers, etc.
but I can not stop reading all of these threads to see where all of your hard work and big brains end up. Love it.
Last edited by a moderator:
TheWinz
Footballguy
I know what you mean about just tweaking consensus rankings. Honestly, I bet that's what just about everyone does. Any real deep dives I do are probably for the subscriber contest at this point.
