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RBs to Exploit/Avoid Week 3 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
11-5 ATS last week, that won't happen again this year. A lot of things happening, a lot of injuries this week, and lord knows I probably overlooked something or made a bad read along the way. By all means if you have better info, any local radio insight from the beat writers, your sister is dating the athletic trainer for the Jets...please speak up and post what you got. Nothing is gained by me just speaking form the pulpit, get in there and roll your sleeves up. Also if you want to help someone out with their "dilema" please chime in. This cannot turn into a WDIS thread but there are ways to showcase players that others are likely trying to decide between as well.

I had to rush thru some of these due to time restraints this week so if you want more info on a player or feel you need to hash it out some more please post up and I'll try and help.

Thanks everyone

San Fran at Kansas City (+2.5) (36.5)

The Niners should be favorites coming into this week and had they not played on MNF I would expect them to blow out the Chiefs even on the road. San Fran is allowing 63 yds a game on the ground and only 2.7 ypc. Their passing defense is about average for the league but KC simply cannot exploit that as their passing game has been pretty horrendous thru the 1st 2 weeks of the season. The Chiefs are a lot better this year at stopping the run and are allowing 93.yds per game and 3.3 ypc. The stars this week might be Smith, Crabtree, and Davis though because KC is allowing 253 yds and 1.5 TDs thru the air each week. I like the Niners to win this game easily with room to spare.

Frank Gore – Simply sensational last week. I emphasized that he was going to have a big week and he finished top3. He was racking points on the ground and thru the air. I expect him to be involved in the passing game again this week but the Saints had a great secondary so it was understandable that Gore was going to see a lot of action last week. Gore only has 7 TDs in his last 17 road games dating back to 2008. Last year after a monster week 2 similar to this year he was injured in a game @MN, hopefully there is not a repeat. He also has only rushed for 100 yds on the road in 2 of those same last 17 games. I'm not telling you to bench Gore this week, but I am saying he will likely not make a repeat trip into the top5 this week. Just temper the enthusiasm some.

Thomas Jones – His plodding style and the ferocious front seven for San Fran is not a good combo. He is the starter and I expect him to get a lot of work but I don't expect him to produce much.

Jamaal Charles – I do see Charles getting in the game when they are behind and need some big plays, in fact he might be the better back this week because of that scenario. If you have a flex option I might look at sticking him in there. We can discuss this further throughout the week. I actually want to get the shark pool's feedback and what they expect in this game.

Final Score: San Fran 24…Kansas City 14

Cincinnati at Carolina (+3) (38.5)

The Panthers have thrown in the towel on the season it seems. From ownership down to the coach, this organization has really gone downhill fast. Not sure why but the team looked early in their history like they were going to be one of the more storied franchises in the NFL. Cincinnati come sin after surviving the Baltimore Ravens last week. They didn't play particularly well on offense but their defense and especially the secondary did a number on Joe Flacco. Jimmy Clausen doesn't stand a chance this weekend but Vegas knows one way that Carolina might make a game of it as do I.

Cedric Benson - I watched every snap last week and while Benson might not be a great play for FF owners right now he is still finding yards that aren't there for Cinci. He really is good as finding a little hole or no hole and moving the pile a yd or two. And he is in no danger of losing any carries to Bernard Scott right now so you can get that out of your head. Benson would have to implode to not get the ball. They use him like a battering ram when they get a lead. Carolina is not terrible against the run allowing only 3.0 ypc but it's the number of times teams run the ball as they allow 106 yds a game. Carolina's defense is not that bad.

DeAngelo Williams – If Fox weren't such an awful HC I might green light DeAngelo again this weekas Cinci allows almost 5 yds a clip on defense. And since Clausen is a rookie and since the Bengals secondary is pretty tight, you have to assume the game plan is attack attack attack that front seven with everything they got. I would run a 2 TE formation and run it right at Cinci all day. If Carolina could somehow establish the run they have a chance for a mild upset in this one.

Jonathan Stewart – Until he gives us something to go off of there is no reason to be using him in your starting lineup. Both he and DeAngelo are candidates for busts right now.

Final Score: Cincinnati 17…Carolina 16

Tennessee at New York Giants (-3) (42.5)

These teams are very similar right now. Lot of chaos in the locker rooms with Vince Young being benched last week. Meanwhile the Giants had Jacobs bang his helmet into the stands, Antrel Rolle thinks Coughlin has too tight a grip around the players: things are not good right now in New York. Both teams are about average at stopping the run but Tennessee is holding bad QBs to an avg of 85 yds per game, I've never seen anything like it. Gotta figure that changes this week.

Chris Johnson – Told you he was going to be bad last week. Look for a nice bounce back game although he has not looked great the 1st 2 weeks of the season. Had a nice run in the 1st game but overall he has been held in check for a lot of the plays. I'm not suggesting you jump ship or anything but I would not expect top5 numbers again this week. 100 total yds and maybe a score. If the Titans can get a lead he'll get some soft spots in the 2nd half to bust one open.

Javon Ringer – If he is available for some reason on your waiver wire and you have room, I would quietly pick him up and just forget about him. Johnson looks a little beat down and he faced a tough Pitt team last week. He did have an 85 yd run called back and that is a big part of his game but Ringer has looked good when called upon.

Ahmad Bradshaw – He wasn't bad in NFL terms with 17/89 last week but owners were expecting Arian Foster like numbers and again I mentioned for you to not chase points. I also broke the game down from week 1 and mentioned that a lot his damage was done late in the 4th and when the Giants had a lead. I expect Bradshaw to see plenty of action in a good close game this week but Brandon Jacobs is frustrated right now and it will be interesting to see if Coughlin gives in a little bit and tries to get Jacobs more involved in the game. Jacobs had chances in week 1 but didn't cash them in.

Brandon Jacobs – I expect more touches for him this week but you can't start the guy right now. He certainly will do better than his 4/8 performance a week ago.

Final Score: Tennessee 21…New York 20

Buffalo at New England (-14) (42.5)

What if I told you the Bills are allowing the same amount of yds in rush defense as the Pats…111. What if I told you that the Bills pass defense is allowing 60 yds fewer per game than the Pats and they just played Aaron Rodgers? No one can accuse the Bills defense of giving up because they have been playing hard. They like so many other NFL teams though simply have no offense and no QB to speak of.

Buffalo RBs – They are all useless and Spiller didn't even get his first carry until the 4th quarter last week. He looks terrible but then again Buffalo has an amateur offense with mostly scrubs around him. They don't have 1 guy on offense that is even top20 right now.

New England RBs – What good is Fred Taylor going 15/75 on the ground? Avoid them all right now although someone will get a short plunge in this game…Morris, Freddie, the Lawfirm? Who knows???

Final Score: New England 28…Buffalo 13

Atlanta at New Orleans (-4) (50)

The Falcons hammered Arizona last week in a blowout. They were close to defeating Pitt in week 1 otherwise they would be playing New Orleans in a battle of unbeatens. The Saints lost Reggie Bush but the bigger factor for them is the disappearance of Meachem and Henderson to a larger degree. This is a team that needs big pays to set them up. Deep routes with Meachem and Henderson allows them to stretch these defenses out and come underneath with Colston, Moore, Bush, and Shockey. The champs are 2-0 but they look beatable right now.

Michael Turner – Check the IR this week but he says it's nothing major and he'll be fine. Owners are glad to hear that but if sitting a week makes him 100% the next week and weeks after then I vote for him to sit and rest.

Jason SnellingJerious Norwood is gone for the season so the back up or RB2 on this team if there was any doubt is all Snelling now. If he is given the start I probably would insert him into your line up. You don't want to chase points and his total plus Gore, owners are going to have to be put in a straight jacket not to start whoever is getting the nod for Atlanta. I would be cautiously optimistic and don't forget that New Orleans is giving up 4.8 ypc on defense, ouch!

Pierre Thomas – Alright, he's the guy now. It was looking that way anyways and he had a tough week finding yds on the ground against San Fran but Atlanta is giving out a whopping 5.9 ypc…HELLO!!! A lot of this is due to 2 runs, one big one form Mendehall in week 1 during overtime and another last week early in the game to Timmy Hightower. Otherwise they usually are solid but Thomas has some burst and likely will find a couple of those big runs needed in this game. No reason not to start the guy in the New Orleans offense who will get the majority of the touches from here on out. He also can catch balls so I expect him to be posting 75 yds rush, 4/30 receiving, TD opp almost every week. 100+ yds and he is firmly an RB1 on any roster right now.

Final Score: New Orleans 27…Atlanta 24

Cleveland at Baltimore (-10.5) (37.5)

Baltimore has faced New York and CInci, now they feast on Cleveland. The Ravens destroyed the Browns last year and outscored the Browns 50-3 in 2 games…this will not end well despite Baltimore not really in flow on offense and only managing to score 10 points a game right now.

Peyton Hillis/Jerome Harrison – If there is a scoring opp he will be given the ball. Harrison had twice as many touches last week but Hillis is the guy they want to use if and when they get near the end zone. I honestly don't see Cleveland putting up much in the way of points this week. Both Hillis and Harrison should be riding your bench for now.

Ray Rice – If Baltimore gives Rice 25 carries last week instead of 16 I truly believe they would have won the game. Rice had 78 yds on 11 carries when it was 1st and 10. Team would kill for that type of productivity on offense to set their QB up. It's even more reason to be suspicious of Joe Flacco and his ability to be an NFL QB. Rice will get plenty of touches and should be a solid start this week.

Willis McGahee – He had 2 TD last year against Cleveland at home and I look for him to crash one home this week in a probable blowout. His points don't do much good for owners because there are usually better options but odds are McGahee sees more action this week.

Final Score: Baltimore 24…Cleveland 6

Detroit at Minnesota (-10.5) (42)

The Vegas line has not caught up yet. Detroit beat the spread in week 1 and week 2 albeit by a .5-1 point both times but they still are better than they are given credit for and the Vikes have not done too well to this point. If they had some weapons other than Adrian Peterson you might believe they could hit the throttle in this game. Detroit is allowing over 300 yds a game thru the air. But again, how is Minnesota going to exploit that?

Jahvid Best – I doubt an owner in any league the rest of the season will sit this guy. He moved to RB1 status in 1 week. I would temper some enthusiasm ad Philly's defense has not looked real good to this point but Best showed why so many owners wanted him. Something like 5 TDs in 2 games will have that affect. The Vikes only allow 3.7 ypc on the ground. The percentages are with me this week so I'll say that Best will be hard pressed to find the end zone this week. Vikes cannot ignore Calvin Johnson but they will make it a priority to stop Best. Somewhere in the 12-18 range for him this week.

Adrian Peterson – Both Forte and McCoy had success against the Lions, ADP should have a field day as well. Lot of receptions to help pad things and he could be headed for 20-25 point land this week. He's all the Vikes have right now on offense.

Final Score: Minnesota 20…Detroit 17

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (+2.5) (33)

This is gonna be a battle for who can score the least. Both defenses are playing well, that's an understatement for the Steelers. I like TB simply because they have the edge at QB right now.

Rashard Mendenhall – The Bucs defense is so so against the run allowing 4 ypc and 111 per game. Pittsburgh is down to their 3rd or 4th string QB, seriously they are in dire straits and Tampa Bay has to know their #1 priority is to stuff the run. The Steelers have also loosed some linemen along the way, Max Starks and Trai Essex(not that big a loss) look they won't be able to go. Nothing big on the horizon for Mendy this week.

Cadillac Williams – The Steelers only allow 2.2 ypc and have not given up a rushing TD this season. Cadillac should be on your bench however once the Bucs get a lead if and when that happens you will see Cadillac get a lot of carries to try and run clock.

Earnest Graham – Seems to be the RB2 right now and might be a small factor in this week's game. He had a TD last week and is probably a Cadillac injury from taking over primary rushing duties.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 10…Pittsburgh 9

Dallas at Houston (-3) (47.5)

The Texans have quickly become the darlings of the NFL. They have had 2 incredible games for their fans to open the season and their comeback against Washington last week was incredible. Dallas comes into this with a totally different mindset and I have one big stat for you why Dallas hasn't won a football game. Their defense despite decent play has ZERO turnovers for all their hard work. Dallas has a legitimate chance to win the football game no doubt about it but the idea of them going 0-3 is a strong possibility. Where Dallas will win this game is thru the air. They have to game plan to try and torch a secondary that allowed big big passing yds to Manning and McNabb.

MB III/Felix Jones - Just bench them until further notice. Houston also is only giving up 2.3 ypc and a scant 31 yds on the ground rushing per game…that is incredible. Dallas will take to the air where Houston is a league worst 411 yds a game thru the air on defense. Felix could get involved in the passing game a little but he is #42 in and MB III #52 in total rankings for the year. Until they get this mess straightened out look elsewhere.

Arian Foster – The Cowboys are only giving up 63 yds a game on the ground and 3ypc. Foster though has an incredible air attack behind him or ahead of him so defenses cannot key in on him or they will get torched by Schaub. I find no reason to not start him every week. If somehow you had 2 other high profile RBs in front of him when you drafted, trade those guys away because Foster is going to remain a weekly top10 threat the rest of the way.

Final Score: Dallas 27...Houston 24

Washington at St Louis (+3.5) (38)

The Skins really let one slip away last week as they could have had sole possession of 1st place in the NFC East. Likely could have gone on the road this week with hopes of a 3-0 start. St Louis is playing hard, Bradford is looking like a rookie of the year candidate and it's only a matter of time before the Rams start knocking off some of these winnable games they have on the schedule. But maybe not this week.

Clinton Portis – Skins cut Larry Johnson and while Portis is not a great option he did manage to scrape together a couple TDs last week. Portis is ranked #24 overall and right now he is filling the RB3 slot alright for most owners that took him in redrafts. The Rams have been very giving with a 4.7 ypc avg and 142 yds on the ground. I look for Portis to put together strong numbers this week and make a run at top 12. Look at what McFadden and Tim Hightower did in weeks 1 and 2. Portis is not the same back he once was but this is a golden opp for him.

Steven Jackson – I called for a bad game last week on SJax and he finished #13 in PPR which is always a decent performance. In non PPR he still was OK with about 125 total yds but he still cannot find the end zone. Rams do have an easy schedule for most of the season, Jackson could be a nice buy low candidate if you are feeling frisky. Skins are pretty good against the run allowing 80 yds a game and 3.5 ypc. But those were games at home, they don't have a ton of speed so this week look for Jackson to put up decent numbers and remain a factor in the passing game. I believe he has 8 receptions already.

Final Score: Washington 23…St Louis 21

Philly at Jacksonville (+3.5) (44)

I'll talk more about Vick in the QB match ups but I am not optimistic with him on the road this week. Jacksonville is a better team at home in the heat and humidity. Vick was custom made for the dome in Detroit so that game was not a surprise to me once he was announced as the starter. Jacksonville did their usual take a dive on the West Coast last week. I called for them to lose handily and they did 38-13. Both games last year after they were manhandled they came back home and played well. They put up almost 500 yds of offense after the 41-0 defeat to Seattle and then managed 325 yds in the game after a 20-3 loss to San Fran. Philly has been giving up a lot of yds so I expect Jacksonville to do very well this week.

LeSean McCoy – Again this was a big pick by both myself and FBG last week. McCoy had by far the biggest game of his career and he is going to have some big games this year with Vick now under center. Vick does some good things for RBs in his backfield just ask Warrick Dunn. McCoy had 3 TDs last week and while I wouldn't expect anything close to that this week, he will continue to be a part of the passing game and his running lanes will be there because of teams wanting to stop Vick. Jacksonville is allowing 4.4 ypc and McCoy is gaining over 6.5 per carry, a total of 6 rushing TD given up on the defense and McCoy scoring. It would seem to have the makings of another good week for McCoy. Ride him.

MJD – Poor guy, but let's not forget about the 2 fluky TDs to Mercedes Lewis in week 1. Usually those drives are capped with an MJD run so I would not abandon hope yet. Philly made Best look like Barry Sanders last week. Now if MJD comes out this week and things don't get any better, then owners have a real problem on their hands. I see him as a possible buy low right now. I wouldn't panic just yet. I'm sure owners are not thinking strongly of benching him but I would think he has a chance for top10 numbers this week. If Jacksonville can get ahead they surely don't want Vick on the field so I would look for Drew to be running the ball a lot in the 2nd half.

Final Score: Jacksonville 24…Philadelphia 20

Indianapolis at Denver (+5.5) (48)

The sky is falling !!! This place turned on the Colts so fast and thought Bradshaw was going straight for 150 yards last week…you

folks should know better by now. You can't chase points, it gets you into trouble. The Colts flexed a little and now they take to the road again to play Denver who is coming off a manhandling of Seattle 31-14 last week. Denver experienced another tragedy this week and I'm sure they will reach out and support the young child that was left behind. I know I speak for many when I say our thoughts and prayers are with the family right now. Mental illness takes a lot of lives in this country and it's a subject that quite frankly we don't know enough about but I'll speak about that sometime in the FFA. I feel bad for the fans in Denver, they have had to suffer through a lot both on and off the field the past couple seasons.

Joseph Addai/Donald Brown – For folks that didn't watch the game, Joseph Addai did very well as the starter in this game. As usual he likes to pull himself from the game anytime he feels the need. Brown did a great job when he was in there and probably saw a few more touches than normal because the Colts blew the Giants out pretty early in the game. Addai had about 12-13 points and most owners are probably expecting about that most weeks. He is a very stable RB2 and in PPR leagues he has posted 13.3 back to back weeks. He's not fancy and sometimes he'll have a little more but he usually is reliable and that is what Indy and Manning love about the guy. He should see plenty of action this week. Addai though has been pretty avg on the road the past 8 games…6/32, 13/63, 14/27, 20/64, 19/74, 15/69, 16/59, 10/22…4 TDs over those last 8 road games too.

Knowshon Moreno RULED OUT on FRIDAY!!! – Called for him to have a strong game last week and he had close to a career day although a lot of his damage came on receptions. His last 3 games in PPR show 24.8, 13.4, and 21.8, presently he sits at #12 on the rankings. I wasn't high on Bradshaw last week but I think Moreno has a solid chance to go out there and do some big damage to the Colts. As long as the game doesn't get out of hand too early then I think Moreno can keep the train moving. He did have a better FF day than he did an NFL day, and that is concern as McDaniels likely is not going to put up with him avg 3 yds on the ground most weeks. Still he is a nice play this week.

Correll Buckhalter - I would look at him if you are in a pinch. He has the ability to catch balls which might prove very handy in a game where Denver figures to have to score a lot in order to keep pace with Indy. Some of his highlights last year include 106 total yds, 92 yds+5 receptions, 75 yds+4 receptions, 46 yds+6 receptions, 128 total yds+3 receptions...he can fill in and gather up double digit points. Maroney is not ready to do much.

Final Score: Indy 31…Denver 24

San Diego at Seattle (+5.5) (44)

I like what Rivers is doing with San Diego. He really has taken this team on his back and will continue to carry them this season. Seattle did their usual roll over and play dead on the road trick. I don't want to argue with their fan base but I predicted they would likely tank in Denver. This week they come home and probably will play better although I really don't think the 31-6 score they laid on San Fran in week 1 told the whole story. I expect San Diego to win again this week but the spread is a little rich for me. I see San Diego ahead for much of the game and then Seattle making it look close towards the end.

Ryan Mathews – Looked like a terrible injury last week but then he came back to the sidelines. Check the IR but I might lay off him this week. One thing the Seattle locals have taught me is that their run defense is better than we thought it would be. And since Pete Carroll is known for this when he was at SC, I'm not really surprised. If you have other option you should likely take a pass on Mathews however check back l;ater in the week or on FBG because his practice schedule will be very telling.

Mike Tolbert – If you own him keep an eye on Mathews status. I expect them to at least share the workload this week. Tolbert did a lot of damage as he filled on for Mathews spectacularly this past weekend.

Seattle RBs – Again there is no reason to start these guys until someone emerges as a clear starter. It's a mess. They actually are avg as a team close to 100 yds a game rushing but it is spread out too much to be of any value right now. Forsett if you must.

Final Score: San Diego 24…Seattle 20

Oakland at Arizona (-4) (39.5)

Jason Campbell yanked and not getting his job back. These 2 teams share in getting rid of guys that they thought were their starting QBs. I think that's the sign of a bad organization(Philly fans…).

Darren McFadden – Ride him baby!!! Arizona is giving up a whopping 153 yds per game and 4.4 ypc as well as a TD per week on the ground. If Bush is inactive this week look for McFadden to get somewhere in the top10 again.

Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower – At best Beanie splits the carries IMO. Oakland is still bad on rush defense allowing 4.7 ypc and 140 yds a game on the ground plus 1.5 TDs per week. If Beanie is going to be used even just partially I would grab Hightower and get him out there again. Now I think Hightower is even better on the dome surfaces as he showed last week but he's fast and Oakland allows long runs so I look for Hightower to get loose at least a couple times in this game. If Beanie is inactive again, Hightower could be a top10 nominee again. He sits at #11 on the rankings right now, already paying for his draft spot in the double digit rounds.

Final Score: Arizona 23…Oakland 20

New York Jets at Miami (-2) (34.5)

Jets managed to storm back and pick up their 1st win against the Pats last week. Miami went on the road and did something they haven't done in 33 years. Open the season with back to back road wins. So many players out, injured, suspended for the Jets that you have to like Miami's chances this week. Low scoring for sure.

Shonn Greene/L.Tomlinson – Until one of them breaks 100 rushing or shows that they are going to be consistent producers which right now looks more like LT than Greene, that said I bench them for now. Miami's defense swarms and neither of these backs are making their owners any money. The Jets scored 28 last week, and these 2 backs scored how many TDs? How about for the season? LT is avg 6.3 ypc right now so you definitely lean his way.

Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams – Brown is avg 5.6 on the ground, had 140/TD for the season and also has 3 receptions where Ricky has none. This is going to be a tight game and I expect the wildcat to play a part. We all know Ronnie runs the wildcat and I expect him to do some razzle dazzle this week in there and make owners happy. Will that be a run, catch, or pass…not sure but I think this formation will have an impact on the game this week. Ricky has not done well so far, keep him riding your bench till we get to the bye weeks for now.

Final Score: Miami 17…NY Jets 16

Green Bay at Chicago (+3) (46)

Monday Night game that should be exciting again. 1st place is on the line and both teams have a lot of offense from which to choose from.

GB RBs – Whether it's Jackson or Kuhn they have a tall order here. Chicago is only allowing 1.4 ypc and a paltry 28 yds a game on rush defense. My goodness does Urlacher make a difference on that team. Look elsewhere for yds this week. Chicago has shut down Dallas and Detroit. We saw what Best can do and he did manage a couple of TDs but the Bears defense is for real.

Matt Forte – The only reason he is an auto start each week is that he is involved heavily with the pass offense. He isn't running the ball particularly well but he manages to gobble up receptions and has scored 3 TDs thru the air so far. 2.9 ypc but 12 receptions/180/3TDs so far, guy has absorbed Mike Martz offense beautifully. I would look for more receptions for him. He's on pace for 96 receptions and about 1,500 yds receiving plus 24 TDs…I know it won't continue but the numbers are pretty shocking.

Final Score: Green Bay27…Chicago 21

Good Luck!!!

 
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Wow. Wednesday afternoon bonus. Thanks!

ETA: Personally, I think Detroit beats Minnesota on their own turf and Best outplays Peterson.

 
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San Fran is gonna score 24 points, but gore is gonna have a mediocre day? You expect Alex Smith to throw for 3 scores?

 
San Fran is gonna score 24 points, but gore is gonna have a mediocre day? You expect Alex Smith to throw for 3 scores?
Frank Gore – Simply sensational last week. I emphasized that he was going to have a big week and he finished top3. He was racking points on the ground and thru the air. I expect him to be involved in the passing game again this week but the Saints had a great secondary so it was understandable that Gore was going to see a lot of action last week. Gore only has 7 TDs in his last 17 road games dating back to 2008. Last year after a monster week 2 similar to this year he was injured in a game @MN, hopefully there is not a repeat. He also has only rushed for 100 yds on the road in 2 of those same last 17 games. I'm not telling you to bench Gore this week, but I am saying he will likely not make a repeat trip into the top5 this week. Just temper the enthusiasm some. Also I did say in the paragraph above that Smith, Davis, and Crabtree would be the stars this week so maybe 2 TDs from Smith and a defensive score. Smith rush for 1 toss 2...Gore might score but I don't see him posting top5 numbers this week again, that's all. I hope I'm wrong and I am not saying you shouldn't start him.

Good question

 
Javon Ringer – If he is available for some reason on your waiver wire and you have room, I would quietly pick him up and just forget about him. Johnson looks a little beat down and he faced a tough Pitt team last week. He did have an 85 yd run called back and that is a big part of his game but Ringer has looked good when called upon.
Would you mind expanding on where you're coming up with this statement? I'm a Ringer owner and agree that he's a solid stash, but don't at all see that Johnson "looks a little beat down." (I guess he was SHUT down last week against a tough Steelers defense, but that's not the same as being BEAT down.)
 
San Fran is gonna score 24 points, but gore is gonna have a mediocre day? You expect Alex Smith to throw for 3 scores?
3 defensive TDs.
:shrug:
i was actually being serious though. You said you expected him to be quite involved in the passing game. And i assume you think he gets about 80 on the ground. so can i deduce that you think he has about 130-140 yards from scrimmage with about 5-6 catches? And dont you think he scores at least 1 of those three td's? you might want to change this guy over to the color green before you regret it. maybe i dont understand what gets a green in your projections, but Gore Week3 should be as close as there is to getting that distinction.
 
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Thanks for another great post MOP. It's a bad feeling when you see all of your RB options in red, though.

My options are Brandon Jackson, C.J. Spiller, and Michael Bush. I'm leaning towards Brandon Jackson b/c at least he'll get *some* carries (at least 10, right?) and Kuhn and Nance aren't going to perform a whole lot better. Chicago's defense was ok against the Cowboys' run last week, but I think it was mostly because Dallas decided not to run on them, inexplicably. Meanwhile, Spiller may only get 0-5 carries again this week for all I know, but at least he'll get me some return yardage (my league counts it at 1 pt/20 yds), so he might at least be able to get more fantasy points than Jackson. And who knows if Bush will even play this week, but if he does, it'll only be as a change-of-pace back, I'm sure.

Anyway, </rant>. Thanks again.

 
Thanks for another great post MOP. It's a bad feeling when you see all of your RB options in red, though.My options are Brandon Jackson, C.J. Spiller, and Michael Bush. I'm leaning towards Brandon Jackson b/c at least he'll get *some* carries (at least 10, right?) and Kuhn and Nance aren't going to perform a whole lot better. Chicago's defense was ok against the Cowboys' run last week, but I think it was mostly because Dallas decided not to run on them, inexplicably. Meanwhile, Spiller may only get 0-5 carries again this week for all I know, but at least he'll get me some return yardage (my league counts it at 1 pt/20 yds), so he might at least be able to get more fantasy points than Jackson. And who knows if Bush will even play this week, but if he does, it'll only be as a change-of-pace back, I'm sure. Anyway, </rant>. Thanks again.
A kick returner in a return yardage league vs. the Pats?I'd start Spiller here. Plus he still has a chance to get more carries and have a decent game on offense.
 
Javon Ringer – If he is available for some reason on your waiver wire and you have room, I would quietly pick him up and just forget about him. Johnson looks a little beat down and he faced a tough Pitt team last week. He did have an 85 yd run called back and that is a big part of his game but Ringer has looked good when called upon.
Would you mind expanding on where you're coming up with this statement? I'm a Ringer owner and agree that he's a solid stash, but don't at all see that Johnson "looks a little beat down." (I guess he was SHUT down last week against a tough Steelers defense, but that's not the same as being BEAT down.)
yeah I thought that was an odd statement as well.
 
Javon Ringer – If he is available for some reason on your waiver wire and you have room, I would quietly pick him up and just forget about him. Johnson looks a little beat down and he faced a tough Pitt team last week. He did have an 85 yd run called back and that is a big part of his game but Ringer has looked good when called upon.
Would you mind expanding on where you're coming up with this statement? I'm a Ringer owner and agree that he's a solid stash, but don't at all see that Johnson "looks a little beat down." (I guess he was SHUT down last week against a tough Steelers defense, but that's not the same as being BEAT down.)
Enormous amount of carries last year and Fisher doesn't seem to be lightening up the load much IMO.
 
Javon Ringer – If he is available for some reason on your waiver wire and you have room, I would quietly pick him up and just forget about him. Johnson looks a little beat down and he faced a tough Pitt team last week. He did have an 85 yd run called back and that is a big part of his game but Ringer has looked good when called upon.
Would you mind expanding on where you're coming up with this statement? I'm a Ringer owner and agree that he's a solid stash, but don't at all see that Johnson "looks a little beat down." (I guess he was SHUT down last week against a tough Steelers defense, but that's not the same as being BEAT down.)
It was worded perfectly. He looked beat down. Heck, on the Titans board I'm a member of, there is a big thread where people are saying "he quit". Hines Ward said he quit. He had a terrible week and got demolished by the Steelers.

Fisher rode Chris Johnson to an unbelievable season and is now over-using him.

Hopefully, he'll bounce back, as the Steeler D looks EPIC, but time will tell.

That being said, even against that defense, he just about cranked out another long run. So he can burn anyone at any time.

But by the end of that game, he was FINISHED.

 
Javon Ringer – If he is available for some reason on your waiver wire and you have room, I would quietly pick him up and just forget about him. Johnson looks a little beat down and he faced a tough Pitt team last week. He did have an 85 yd run called back and that is a big part of his game but Ringer has looked good when called upon.
Would you mind expanding on where you're coming up with this statement? I'm a Ringer owner and agree that he's a solid stash, but don't at all see that Johnson "looks a little beat down." (I guess he was SHUT down last week against a tough Steelers defense, but that's not the same as being BEAT down.)
yeah I thought that was an odd statement as well.
His stats are more like 45 carries for 110 on the ground...they're killing him with all these carries into the line. Sooner or later it's gonna catch up to him, that's all I'm saying. I own him in umpteen leagues but I would like to see a few 15/100 performnces where they didn't have to run him over and over again, that's all.

 
Javon Ringer – If he is available for some reason on your waiver wire and you have room, I would quietly pick him up and just forget about him. Johnson looks a little beat down and he faced a tough Pitt team last week. He did have an 85 yd run called back and that is a big part of his game but Ringer has looked good when called upon.
Would you mind expanding on where you're coming up with this statement? I'm a Ringer owner and agree that he's a solid stash, but don't at all see that Johnson "looks a little beat down." (I guess he was SHUT down last week against a tough Steelers defense, but that's not the same as being BEAT down.)
yeah I thought that was an odd statement as well.
He didn't look beat down on the 85 TD run that was called back.
 
what earns a green?
That's a good question and hard to answer. Things that earn a green early in the season...1. Guys that weren't drafted as RB1 with juicy match ups and an OL decent enough to exploit them. 2. Guys that were drafted high, have been taking a nose dive, and now look like they should rebound. I'm not saying McFadden is top3 this week but I think he has a good shot at top10 maybe a little higher. I just glanced at the FBG rankings as I never look at them until I am done with this thread...looks like I am right in sync with most of what they have in terms of rankings this week. I might have a minor quibble with Best and Jackson but I understand why they are there. McFadden, Moreno, Thomas, Forte, Hightower, we all are seeing the same thing with these guys right now. I hope that answer helped.
 
Javon Ringer – If he is available for some reason on your waiver wire and you have room, I would quietly pick him up and just forget about him. Johnson looks a little beat down and he faced a tough Pitt team last week. He did have an 85 yd run called back and that is a big part of his game but Ringer has looked good when called upon.
Would you mind expanding on where you're coming up with this statement? I'm a Ringer owner and agree that he's a solid stash, but don't at all see that Johnson "looks a little beat down." (I guess he was SHUT down last week against a tough Steelers defense, but that's not the same as being BEAT down.)
yeah I thought that was an odd statement as well.
He didn't look beat down on the 85 TD run that was called back.
Wasn' that still in the 1st half?
 
You expect Ronnie to be able to razzle and dazzle through the Jets defense?
I expect a full blown Miami trick play, maybe 2 or 3. They have been as boring as a weekend insurance seminar on offense, time to open it up a bit.
Trick plays or not, they're still running against a Jets defense.
True Dr.A, but they are down a NT, OLB, starting DB, gimpy Jason Taylor, starting WR, starting WR...the WRs don't impact Ronnie directly but I think it severely limits the Jets passing game and means the game will be very close and Miami will be running throughout the game.
 
I don't think you have to worry about Turner's injury

Per CBS:

Falcons RB Michael Turner (groin) said Wednesday he couldn't put a percentage on how well he feels heading into Sunday's Week 3 game against New Orleans. "I didn't tear it or anything; it's not that serious," said Turner, who was limited in practice. "I'll be ready this week."

(Updated 09/22/2010).

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports Monday that Falcons coach Mike Smith said RB Michael Turner will be ready to go for Week 3 at New Orleans despite leaving Sunday's game against Arizona with an injured groin. Turner could have returned to the game against the Cardinals, but the Falcons decided to hold him out as a precaution. He finished the game with nine carries for 75 yards. With Turner out Sunday, Jason Snelling totaled three touchdowns and 186 yards in his place. (Updated 09/20/2010)

 
You expect Ronnie to be able to razzle and dazzle through the Jets defense?
I expect a full blown Miami trick play, maybe 2 or 3. They have been as boring as a weekend insurance seminar on offense, time to open it up a bit.
Trick plays or not, they're still running against a Jets defense.
True Dr.A, but they are down a NT, OLB, starting DB, gimpy Jason Taylor, starting WR, starting WR...the WRs don't impact Ronnie directly but I think it severely limits the Jets passing game and means the game will be very close and Miami will be running throughout the game.
Fair enough. You now have me thinking about benching Greene for Ronnie. If you're not a staffer you should be.
 
Thanks for another great post MOP. It's a bad feeling when you see all of your RB options in red, though.

My options are Brandon Jackson, C.J. Spiller, and Michael Bush. I'm leaning towards Brandon Jackson b/c at least he'll get *some* carries (at least 10, right?) and Kuhn and Nance aren't going to perform a whole lot better. Chicago's defense was ok against the Cowboys' run last week, but I think it was mostly because Dallas decided not to run on them, inexplicably. Meanwhile, Spiller may only get 0-5 carries again this week for all I know, but at least he'll get me some return yardage (my league counts it at 1 pt/20 yds), so he might at least be able to get more fantasy points than Jackson. And who knows if Bush will even play this week, but if he does, it'll only be as a change-of-pace back, I'm sure.

Anyway, </rant>. Thanks again.
A kick returner in a return yardage league vs. the Pats?I'd start Spiller here. Plus he still has a chance to get more carries and have a decent game on offense.
Thanks. That's the way I'm leaning too. When in doubt, go with the better athlete.Although if there's anything to this news, I may just pick up Earnest Graham on a flier. It's against Pittsburgh, I know, but I'm grasping at straws here.

MOP, any thoughts on if Graham starts vs. the Steelers?

 
Cincinnati at Carolina (+3) (38.5)

The Panthers have thrown in the towel on the season it seems. From ownership down to the coach, this organization has really gone downhill fast. Not sure why but the team looked early in their history like they were going to be one of the more storied franchises in the NFL. Cincinnati come sin after surviving the Baltimore Ravens last week. They didn't play particularly well on offense but their defense and especially the secondary did a number on Joe Flacco. Jimmy Clausen doesn't stand a chance this weekend but Vegas knows one way that Carolina might make a game of it as do I.

Is Carolina not already running a 2TE set? Did they do this when Clausen came in last week?

 
Good work as always, MOP. Thanks and keep it up!

The Dynasty said:
I don't think you have to worry about Turner's injury...
I certainly hope you are right, Dynasty. :fingerscrossed:
 
The Dynasty said:
I don't think you have to worry about Turner's injuryPer CBS: Falcons RB Michael Turner (groin) said Wednesday he couldn't put a percentage on how well he feels heading into Sunday's Week 3 game against New Orleans. "I didn't tear it or anything; it's not that serious," said Turner, who was limited in practice. "I'll be ready this week."(Updated 09/22/2010). The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports Monday that Falcons coach Mike Smith said RB Michael Turner will be ready to go for Week 3 at New Orleans despite leaving Sunday's game against Arizona with an injured groin. Turner could have returned to the game against the Cardinals, but the Falcons decided to hold him out as a precaution. He finished the game with nine carries for 75 yards. With Turner out Sunday, Jason Snelling totaled three touchdowns and 186 yards in his place. (Updated 09/20/2010)
I'd rather have him say I'm 100% but I guess that's better than him saying he's hurting.
 
Arian Foster – The Cowboys are only giving up 63 yds a game on the ground and 3ypc. Foster though has an incredible air attack behind him or ahead of him so defenses cannot key in on him or they will get torched by Schaub. I find no reason to not start him every week. If somehow you had 2 other high profile RBs in front of him when you drafted, trade those guys away because Foster is going to remain a weekly top10 threat the rest of the way.
Ok that pushed me over my edge, back to work on trading D.Will. If it does not pan out I comming after ya! :banned:
 
I wonder if in PPR if Green Bay doesn't toss out to RB Jackson 5-7 targets and thus making him a nice play in PPR leagues?

 
Running back Joseph Addai and defensive captain Gary Brackett have missed Colts practice according to the Associated Press.

Five Indy starters sat out Wednesday, including Pro Bowl defensive end Dwight Freeney who took his customary extra day of rest.

Addai was out with an undisclosed knee injury. Brackett missed practice after hurting his back and linebacker Clint Session missed practice with a hamstring injury. Left tackle Charlie Johnson also sat out with a sprained right foot.

Receiver Anthony Gonzalez (ankle), linebacker Ramon Humber (hand) and safety Bob Sanders (biceps) didn't practice and already have been ruled out of this week's game at Denver.

 
On a related note, I'd like to throat punch John Fox (but that's just me!). He'll be lucky to be coaching at the high school level next year.

 
hey, mop...the plays I find interesting this week are...(play at the end of each line)

9/26 1:00 ET At Baltimore -10.5 Cleveland 37.5 under

9/26 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -2.5 At Tampa Bay 33 pitt, over

9/26 1:00 ET Cincinnati -3 At Carolina 38.5 cinci, under

9/26 1:00 ET At New Orleans -4 Atlanta 50 saints, under

9/26 4:05 ET Washington -3.5 At St. Louis 38 wash

9/26 4:05 ET Philadelphia -3.5 At Jacksonville 44 over / jax

9/26 4:15 ET Indianapolis -5.5 At Denver 48 indy, over

9/26 4:15 ET At Arizona -4 Oakland 39.5 ariz / under

the biggest discrepancy between your thoughts and mine is your tampa 10 / pitt 9 prediction.

i like what tampa is doing this year, and I'm happy for their young qb, but i think the steelers are gonna stomp a mudhole in the bucs this week. is your low prediction more to do with the bucs defense or more to do with a batch start?

 
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Gopher State said:
Great write up. I think the Bears beat the Packers, with Forte having a very big game.
you must be drinking the Lovie Koolaid. I think we may see 1000 yds passing and less than 100 yds rushing between the two teams(slight exaggeration). So being this is a RB thread GB and Bears neednt be mentioned anymore
 
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hey, mop...the plays I find interesting this week are...(play at the end of each line)9/26 1:00 ET At Baltimore -10.5 Cleveland 37.5 under9/26 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -2.5 At Tampa Bay 33 pitt, over9/26 1:00 ET Cincinnati -3 At Carolina 38.5 cinci, under9/26 1:00 ET At New Orleans -4 Atlanta 50 saints, under9/26 4:05 ET Washington -3.5 At St. Louis 38 wash9/26 4:05 ET Philadelphia -3.5 At Jacksonville 44 over / jax9/26 4:15 ET Indianapolis -5.5 At Denver 48 indy, over9/26 4:15 ET At Arizona -4 Oakland 39.5 ariz / underthe biggest discrepancy between your thoughts and mine is your tampa 10 / pitt 9 prediction.i like what tampa is doing this year, and I'm happy for their young qb, but i think the steelers are gonna stomp a mudhole in the bucs this week. is your low prediction more to do with the bucs defense or more to do with a batch start?
:shrug: And partly both. Batch has been awful, he's lucky to have a job. He's 36, hasn't been a regular starter since 2001. He's been riding the nice 2006 fill in season for awhile. I think the Bucs will do well against him. Freeman is much better at this point than Batch, I give him the edge and the Bucs a close win. You think Pitt will unleash hell?
 
Buffalo at New England (-14) (42.5)

What if I told you the Bills are allowing the same amount of yds in rush defense as the Pats…111. What if I told you that the Bills pass defense is allowing 60 yds fewer per game than the Pats and they just played Aaron Rodgers? No one can accuse the Bills defense of giving up because they have been playing hard. They like so many other NFL teams though simply have no offense and no QB to speak of.

Buffalo RBs – They are all useless and Spiller didn't even get his first carry until the 4th quarter last week. He looks terrible but then again Buffalo has an amateur offense with mostly scrubs around him. They don't have 1 guy on offense that is even top20 right now.

New England RBs – What good is Fred Taylor going 15/75 on the ground? Avoid them all right now although someone will get a short plunge in this game…Morris, Freddie, the Lawfirm? Who knows???

Final Score: New England 28…Buffalo 13

New York Jets at Miami (-2) (34.5)

Jets managed to storm back and pick up their 1st win against the Pats last week. Miami went on the road and did something they haven't done in 33 years. Open the season with back to back road wins. So many players out, injured, suspended for the Jets that you have to like Miami's chances this week. Low scoring for sure.

Shonn Greene/L.Tomlinson – Until one of them breaks 100 rushing or shows that they are going to be consistent producers which right now looks more like LT than Greene, that said I bench them for now. Miami's defense swarms and neither of these backs are making their owners any money. The Jets scored 28 last week, and these 2 backs scored how many TDs? How about for the season? LT is avg 6.3 ypc right now so you definitely lean his way.
:confused: "Miami's defense swarms"? nah, they just gave up 145 rushing yards to ADP.. :ptts: start Greene and LT2 with confidence..

Buffalo managed 4.6 ypc avg vs. NE last season, and nearly 4.0 per clip in 2008..they can run the ball against NE..

 
Buffalo at New England (-14) (42.5)

What if I told you the Bills are allowing the same amount of yds in rush defense as the Pats…111. What if I told you that the Bills pass defense is allowing 60 yds fewer per game than the Pats and they just played Aaron Rodgers? No one can accuse the Bills defense of giving up because they have been playing hard. They like so many other NFL teams though simply have no offense and no QB to speak of.

Buffalo RBs – They are all useless and Spiller didn't even get his first carry until the 4th quarter last week. He looks terrible but then again Buffalo has an amateur offense with mostly scrubs around him. They don't have 1 guy on offense that is even top20 right now.

New England RBs – What good is Fred Taylor going 15/75 on the ground? Avoid them all right now although someone will get a short plunge in this game…Morris, Freddie, the Lawfirm? Who knows???

Final Score: New England 28…Buffalo 13

New York Jets at Miami (-2) (34.5)

Jets managed to storm back and pick up their 1st win against the Pats last week. Miami went on the road and did something they haven't done in 33 years. Open the season with back to back road wins. So many players out, injured, suspended for the Jets that you have to like Miami's chances this week. Low scoring for sure.

Shonn Greene/L.Tomlinson – Until one of them breaks 100 rushing or shows that they are going to be consistent producers which right now looks more like LT than Greene, that said I bench them for now. Miami's defense swarms and neither of these backs are making their owners any money. The Jets scored 28 last week, and these 2 backs scored how many TDs? How about for the season? LT is avg 6.3 ypc right now so you definitely lean his way.
:confused: "Miami's defense swarms"? nah, they just gave up 145 rushing yards to ADP.. :rolleyes: start Greene and LT2 with confidence..

Buffalo managed 4.6 ypc avg vs. NE last season, and nearly 4.0 per clip in 2008..they can run the ball against NE..
Yo Tanner,First off you might want to check the end of last week's thread, fyi. Second, which Buffalo RB are you going to start, Lynch? And what can you expect? Even if he totals up 70-80 yds, if he doesn't score he's useless, 7-8 points in most of my leagues leaves a gigantic hole at RB.

And the Miami defense is playing very well right now. I understand what you are saying about ADP but Maimi stood him up when they had to. Miami's defense created 4 turnovers last week, they are playing really hard but I understand you are looking at pure stats. Even if they are allowing 120 on the ground per game, how will that get cut up within the Jets?

Nice post

 

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