Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
We have a lot of bye week teams this week. Ray Rice, CBuck, K.Moreno, Kevin Smith, MJD, JJ, Chris Johnson are all on bye weeks.
San Diego at Kansas City (+4.5) (43.5)
The Chargers could not close the deal at home against Denver last week. They were ahead 20-17 but were outscored 17-3 in the 2nd half and Denver went on to win 34-23 and send San Diego into a situation where they are 3.5 games back and likely fighting for a wildcard spot. It’s not unbelievable that they could pull it together and make a run but they are not playing very inspired football in the trenches, that’s the real story when you boil it down…they can’t seem to block as well and they are not tackling well on defense. The Chargers are avf less than 3 ypc and 60 yds rushing a game, that is terrible and it’s hard to see them getting better. LT is not close to what he once was and Sproles is a complete non factor right now in this offense.
LaDainian Tomlinson had about 100 yds on about 20 touches Monday Night, it’s better but owners want a lot more. He is given a lot of carries and I don’t see that changing right now. If the Bolts continued to lose and got to about 3-6, maybe 4-8…yeah I don’t see LT getting a lot of touches down the stretch should that happen. Again this week he has a nice match up but can he and the OL cash in on these great match ups? I don’t blame owners who are benching LT but with a lot of bye weeks this week, owners are going to have to play him. Sproles should be on the bench for now.
Larry Johnson is showing signs of life. 95 yds on 26 touches including 3 receptions last week. The Chiefs pulled a win and I expect them to try and run the ball a lot this weekend. Although San Diego is suspect through the air they also are giving up a lot on the ground…however they also were fairly solid this past week, but they have to fly away on the road, short week to prepare, I like the Chiefs to put up a good fight this weekend and look for LJ to get a lot of touches again, perhaps this week he can score the Chiefs 1st rushing TD of the season. If San Diego is in a giving mood you could see a 100 yd and a TD type performance this week. Maybe top15 if things go right for him.
Final Score: San Diego 22…Kansas City 20
Green Bay at Cleveland (+7) (42)
The Packers last week took advantage of a passing deficient Detroit Lions team and won 26-0 but I want to point out that they had trouble scoring TDs. Yes they won in a shutout but they should have won 49-0 but they settled for a lot of Mason Crosby FGs, Rodgers threw for 350 and Ryan Grant had his usually 100 yds and no TDs type performance.
The Browns are just terrible and hardly worth the ink to write about and I men that sincerely. They don’t block well, they don’t tackle well, they don’t do anything really well and Mangini just irritates me in his press conferences…talking his team up after they get beat soundly, acting like he is doing a great job, pathetic.
Grant is basically a fringe RB2 when you look at him. He hasn’t has any big games but he hasn’t been awful either…just
steady but even steady would be better if it was 15-16 a week instead of 10-11 as it seems lately. He has 13, 15, 11, 14, 13…so I stand corrected he actually is a solid RB2, but not a lot of upside. This week he has a chance to have a good game, but the reality is to project out more than 13-15 is foolish right now.
The Packers hold teams to 3.6 ypc so I don’t see the upside in Jamal Lewis this week, and until they make the move to Jerome Harrison there really isn’t much to talk about here.
Final Score: Green Bay 27…Cleveland 13
Indy at St Louis (+13) (46)
The Colts had a bye week to rest up before traveling down the road to battle St Louis this weekend. The Rams are at the bottom, they are as bad as we’ve seen from them in the past 4 or 5 seasons, that’s really saying something. They have a real chance to perhaps be a 1 win or worse candidate. They simply cannot score and their defense doesn’t stop anything so look for Manning and the Colts to destroy the Rams this weekend.
Joseph Addai is coming off 22 and 24 point back to back performances despite not rushing the football all that well, he is really benefitting form the receptions with 17 the past 2 weeks and he is 17 for 17 targets the past 2 weeks as well…Manning is going to keep throwing it to him as long as he hauls everything in. I really believe Joseph Addai excels at this phase of the game where he shares the running duties but catches a lot of balls so he is active in the game. I like his chances plenty this week. Gelnn Coffey had 4 catches, the MN RBs combined for 5, MJD had 5 on 7 targets last week. With a WR2 still not clearly defined look for more targets for Addai as he is cashing in there.
Donald Brown was a big disappointment last week for everyone that played him. I expect the Colts to bury the Rams and I think Brown will see some touches and perhaps be a little more like he was in week 2, 3, and 4 where he made a nice 11-12 point flex option for some.
Steven Jackson is steadily making progress for owners. Has not been a top5 pick yet but he is producing each week and not laying complete eggs either. The Colts the past 2 weeks have not been kind to opposing back as Julius Jones and Chris Johnson owners found out. But the Rams are perhaps better at knowing they must get SJax going to have any chance to win a football game. I would not hesitate to put Jackson out there right now.
Final Score: Indianapolis 34…St Louis 14
Minnesota at Pittsburgh (-4) (45)
The Vikings continue to win football game and they are doing it with late 4th quarter Brett Favre heroics. I thought they had the game wrapped up Sunday but they still needed some late game magic form Favre, this speaks to the defense as much as anything. Where would the Vikes be if they didn’t have Favre? Not 6-0 I can assure you…maybe 4-2 and maybe not even that much. The Vikes are in the top10 albeit the back end of the top 10 is both rushing the football and stopping the run, those are ingredients for success and a deep playoff run. People are talking about the Saints but I like these Vikings and all the ways they can really hurt you.
Adrian Peterson will not have an easy time but he is a professional and perhaps the best in the game so I believe he will have a little extra for the Steelers as much as they will in return. Should be a great match and I think both sides will show they are good at what they do but ADP will break off at least 1 big run in this game.
The Steelers are starting to get their ducks in a row. They are now 4-2, tied for 1st place with Cinci and I think they are starting to see the fruits of having Mendy and Parker rolling along with the offense. Pittsburgh has one of the best passing offenses in the league, they are slowly doing in pitt what NE did with Brady and that is have the offense run right thru him. Pitt is thinking get the ball downfield now all the time not just once in awhile. Ward, Holmes, Wallace, and Heath Miller are all getting in on the action. Rashard Mendenhall has posted 33, 15, and 13 for points the past 3 weeks, and while the Vikes are not a juicy match up this isn’t that tough of a run defense right now, plus Ray Rice found some holes a week ago, look for Pitt to try and find some of their own this week. And until further notice Willie Parker has to stay on your bench, he is the RB2 on this team right now…don’t worry it’s probably a fluid situation.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 27…Minnesota 20
San Fran at Houston (-3) (44)
Here is a big problem for Houston this weekend, they really cannot stop the run too well. Jones and Washington ravaged them in week1, Chris Johnson had a career day week 2, MJD scored 3 rushing TDs in week 3, then Oakland and Arizona did not do much although they are weak rushing offenses so I don’t read much into it however they did hold down Cedric Benson this past weekend. I know people are on the Cinci band wagon but I have not really been one of them and I think whether it is Coffey or Gore that San Fran will run the ball and run the ball effectively this weekend.
Slaton is top10 right now. 14, 22, 15, 26…he’s top10 for sure right now over the past 4 weeks in fact this is likely top5 over the past 4 weeks, he’s red hot and he was in big trouble early in the season. Now the Niners can shut down the run. As long as Slaton gets 7-8 targets and 5-6 receptions he will turn a profit for owners this weekend although he will have his work cut out for him.
Final Score: San Fran 20…Houston 19
New England at Tampa Bay (+14.5) (45)
When teams destroy others the way New England did last week…Seattle beats Jax 41-0, turns around and loses 28-3 the next week. San Fran wins 35-0 against St Louis and then gets pummeled 41-10 by Atlanta or whatever the score was. So will NE gets beat by the Bucs? Not hardly, in fact I cannot believe the spread isn’t like 18 or 19 cause this is going to get ugly. New England throws the ball well and Tampa bay is not very good against the pass despite what Jake Delhomme tried to rutn in as a performance…pathetic.
The Pats have a very nice match up no matter how they want to play this. I do think it would benefit them to try and get either Maroney or BJG involved in the running game early. Even though Maroney looked great and he responded well when given the opp, you still have to question WTH he did to end up 3rd string behind old Fred Taylor and old Sammy Morris. I wouldn’t be surprised if BJG ends up being the RB with the most carries, not because I think he is more talented but because the Patriots seem to not stand behind Maroney and I think this might be an excellent time to cash that LM chip in for something you can be more reliant on. But Maroney has a good match up this week so no reason to leave him on the bench. Ben Jarvis Green I would keep on your radar as well.
The Bucs have shown how to spend $20 million for someone else’s back up that can’t even make the field enough in their offense to even really be called the back up. Cadillac Williams continues to get carries in what has been a complete disaster for the Bucs who are thinking 2010 and perhaps even 2011 at the rate they are going. They have holes it seems everywhere on defense and their offense isn’t much to write home about either as they have no Quarterback. I don’t see any Bucs offensive player especially RB as a good play right now.
Final Score: New England 38…Tampa Bay 10
Buffalo at Carolina (NL) (NL)
Both teams love to run the football and neither of them is very good at stopping the run. I would say it is likely green lights across the board. I could go in to some deeper analysis but basically DWill is coming off a 150+ 2TD performance and now will see the worst rush defense in the NFL right now, he should have a monster game on Sunday at home. Look for JStew to also see a good amount of carries as Carolina looks for the quickest way to get to .500 and cool the jets on Coach Fox being fired. He likely will go at the end of the season when they miss the playoffs but if they would just borrow a page form Miami and run the football, not to mention develop a Wildcat of their own and call it Panthersomething they would likely win more football games.
Carolina’defense is not very good but Buffalo is not a world beater on offense although Lynch should find some success on Sunday against the Panthers. I would not hesitate to wheel out Lynch. Look for Carolina to shut down Buffalo and grind out enough on the ground and the scoreboard for the win.
Final Score: Carolina 21…Buffalo 10
NY Jets at Oakland (+6) (35)
The Jets have been in a real tailspin. That would have made Oakland look very tempting this week until they pulled the shocker last week on Philly and suddenly teams have to look at Oakland like a wounded dog that gets abused all week and then Sunday when they take the field it must be a relief to get away form everything else going wrong.
The Raiders are not very good against the run but you have to be patient. I think Philly didn’t do enough running last week and it cost them dearly as they could have pulled into a tie with New York had they won the football game. Sproles and LT both scored on them week 1, LJ had over 100 combined yds week 2, Buck and Moreno combined for almost 200 yds on them, Slaton had a big game, Bradshaw and Jacobs combined for about 175 yds on the ground…these guys are not that good so Jones and Washington should both have some serious chances to cash in on Sunday. The Jets desperately need this win to put a stop to the bleeding.
The Jets lost Kris Jenkins for the season and their rush defense just took a huge blow. I like for either Fargas or Bush to score this weekend but trying to pick one of them is a real challenge. Fargas dominated the carries last week with 23 vs 6 so if McFadden is still OUT this week then I would look for Fargas to have fringe top20 numbers.
Final Score: NY Jets 21…Oakland 17
Atlanta at Dallas (-4) (47)
Lot of things I am looking at in this game, I’ll just list them down in order and try to find something we can hang our hat on here.
1.The Falcons took care of business against Ronnie and Ricky in week 1, Didn’t let DWill and JStew get out of control in week2…those are probably 2 of the top4 or 5 backfield s in the NFL so that is saying something for them. Last week they shut down Matt Forte which is pretty hard to do. But now they turnaround and face the #3 rushing attack in the NFl and that is up for debate because they are #1 in ypc by a lot with just under 6 a clip. They have 7 rushing TD in 5 games, 9 runs of 20 yds or more for the season, they are really good at running the ball.
2.Dallas is not a pushover when it comes to their defense stopping the run. Jacobs and Bradshaw, DWill and JStew, Buck and Moreno, LJ, they have shut them all down pretty well the past 4 weeks. They have had a bye week, will be well rested where Atlanta had to go down to the wire last week with an emotional win against the bears, now they travel to Dallas and I think that will have an impact on them.
3.The big win last week for me means that Atlanta could have an emotional let down this week. Dallas just watched everyone move back to them in the NFC East so they are probably liking their chances as they move ahead the next few weeks. Falcons are 4-1 and while they need to win in order to stay pace with the Saints, I don’t see this as a must win by any stretch for them.
Michael Turner has been shaky as a starter and this week I am not going to project him as being an RB1, in fact I think he has a very average day at best in Dallas.
Whoever starts in Dallas is a good choice. I don’t know the status of Felix Jones as I am writing this, nor of MB III either. Look for Choice to stay involved no matter who is the starter in Dallas. Even though Atlanta is a fairly tough opponent I doubt they can keep the Dallas rushing attack in check all night.
Final Score: Dallas 24…Atlanta 17
New Orleans at Miami (+6.5) (47)
You know my heart is pulling for Miami but how do they stand a chance against the best team in the NFL right now? We talk a lot about who has this team beat and who has that team beat but New Orleans has beaten New York and Philly already so they look pretty good. They are going to see New England in about a month or so and that game will tell us a lot too. That said their rush defense which ahs been really good is going to be put to the challenge but the #1 rushing offense in all the NFL right now, that’s right the Miami Dolphins are turning into amphibians and running the ball on land as best they can.
Other teams try and emulate the Wildcat offense but most cannot do it. Maimi has the right personnel and they continue to bring in more and more players that can help them run it. Most of the time they direct snap to Ronnie who really just picks an A gap assignment in the middle and runs a power play as the C/G crackdown on the NT/DT and create a hole where Ronnie squirts through and into the secondary. It’s not fancy but it is very effective and has to be down right gut wrenching to watch if you root for the opposing team and you keep watching the same stunt play called over and over again and it keeps being run down your throat till you choke.
The Saints offense is really impressive and they have a lot of ways they can hurt you. At RB right now we are seeing all 3 backs including Bell, Thomas, and Bush contributing. Last week Thomas got 15 carries and so did Mike Bell. Thomas got a lot of his carries early when the game was still in the balance, along the way Mike Bell was called upon to score form short yardage. Mike Bell had 10 carries in the 2nd half including 8 in the 4th quarter when the game was pretty lopsided. I know Bell owners want to create magic and stuff that isn’t there, and so I am sticking with Thomas as the back to start there for now. Bell a possible flex option or when they are blowing teams out he is likely to get more touches. He still was only 15/34 last week but the TD made it appear he was a lot more involved in the offense than he was.
Ronnie Brown is going to have a rough go of it but I believe Miami will have a game plan to get him involved and I look for something similar to what they tried and almost won with against Indy…the problem is New Orleans has a defense and they are proving they are not a 1 dimensional team that only plays offense. Fred Jackson’s 18 carries for 70 yds and almost 95 yds combined is about the best anyone has done so far. I do think Ronnie will turn a profit for owners this week although I don’t expect him to be anywhere close to top5 this week.
Ricky Williams keeps getting asked about, I simply say to you that he is second fiddle to Ronnie and I would not expect anything big from him this weekend.
Final Score: New Orleans 23…Miami 21, gonna be way closer than you think.
Chicago at Cincinnati (-1.5) (42)
Both teams are frauds right now. Cinci is not going to the playoffs, they might be a .500 team but they have a ways to go before they are ready to actually turn the corner. Wins over Pitt and Baltimore right now don’t make me trust them long term for the season. And the Bears are so up and down you just never know who is going to show up. One thing for sure is they should stay off Sunday Night Football, Cutler has looked awful those 2 games this season.
Matt Forte right now is really not making owners happy. Only against Detroit has he had any real success this season and now panic is starting to set in. Jerome Harrison surpsingly has had the best day of most of the RBs although Slaton killed them OOTB last week with 6 grabs for over 100 yds and a TD…Forte can do those things if Chicago turns him loose. They have to win this football game and I think they will doeverything they can to get Forte involved in that offense, he has to for them to keep winning.
Cedric Benson had a very pedestrian week last week and as I mentioned he would be prone to do. He’s a great RB2 and will continue to sprinkle in some real big games during the year but not this week. Turner was held in check most of the day last week and I think Chicago can keep their old team mate under wraps for most of the game. Benson has no heart, that was proven in the Super Bowl against Indy a couple years back so don’t think he is going to avenge his previous career with them…there is a reason he plays for Cinci now.
Final Score: Chicago 21…Cincinnati 13
Arizona at New York Giants (-7) (46.5)
Two teams with very different outcomes this past weekend. The Cardinals go on the road where they are not the best at traveling all the time, however they marched into Seattle and ripped off 28-3 dominating victory where they got up early and basically cruised the rest of the way. The Giants were blown out in New Orleans, everyone has a bad game once in awhile and I think the Giants are better than they showed this past Sunday.
Other than Dallas most of the teams that have faced the New York Giants have been pretty bottled up running the football. Yes the Saints did move the ball and scored 3 times on the groud but I think they were so busy stopping the pass they couldn’t even think about the run although they did and it cost them a couple of easy TDs for the Saints.
Tim Hightower has been a pleasant surprise for owners that grabbed him this year. 25, 17, 11, 15, 15, the guys has been pretty consistent and while he will have his hands full this weekend he should still scrape double digits for owners, ride him till he falls apart. Chris Wells should be riding your bench until further notice.
The Cardinals have not allowed more than 66 yds rushing from one back all year, in fact only two have run for more than 40 all year. Gore, MJD, Slaton, all these backs have struggled to run the football so why will Bradhsaw and Jacobs do well this weekend? Except for last week the Cardinals have allowed a lot thru the air this season. I believe the Giants will take to the air, Eli will lead the charge and I would expect a couple of short TDs when the Giants get inside the 5.
Ahmad Bradshaw is running hard right now, and he is actually more productive as of late to Jacobs. I would play Bradshaw in the flex this week although he doesn’t catch a lot of passes, kind of misused in that sense but he is really showcasing himself and his game is elevating before our eyes, you really need to tune in and watch this kid as he takes some steps in gathering a larger role. Someone broke down earlier last week that Bradhsaw is not getting more snaps but more touches when he is in the ball game, interesting slant on things.
Brandon Jacobs should get a lot of carries if he is not hurt. I believe he left the game with a stinger last week, let’s wait for
the injury report before we take any big projections into account here.
Final Score: New York 27…Arizona 24
Philly at Washington (+7) (37.5)
You talk about a couple of wounded dogs this week. The Eagles go and drop a very easy match up in Oakland and take a major step backwards. Coach Reid of course takes all the blame, McNabb looks mystified as usual when this happens, the media doesn’t know what to make of it, simply disastrous. Then we turn to the Redskins who look ready to implode at any moment. JayZee is a joke in Washington, stripped of his play calling, just strip him of his Skins gear and show him the door already, it’s the only decent thing to do. You can also toss out Vinny the GM and most of the front office. Go find Rich McKay and hire him as your VP of Operations and let him run the whole thing from top to bottom, and let him hire Tony Dungy out of retirement as his 1st task. Actually, I’d have to like the Skins if that happened and that can’t be so we’ll end that daydream session right now.
Brian Westbrook is now only supposed to carry the ball about 10-12 times a game now right? Well owners were not unhappy this past weekend as he caught 9 balls for 90 yds and ended up with about 23 points in most leagues, likely good for top 10 pushing top5. I would not panic as they need a win, look for him to be active and involved in the passing game again heavily as they will have to fight hard to win this week. McCoy is still a bench rider for now.
Clinton Portis did his usual “I have a great match up let me turn in ho hum numbers for owners.” He was about 15th last week which is fine as he fell in so many drafts this year that many are using him as an RB2 which he has been fine at as a fringe top30 player overall for the season. I imagine he will get a workload but who knows what to expect from Sherman Lewis calling plays who was last doing some weird job for a person who has his resume. I’ll let the board decide if he is a good play or not, but I wouldn’t be in a hurry to wheel him out as the offense is in total disarray for the moment.
Final Score: Philly 17…Washington 10
San Diego at Kansas City (+4.5) (43.5)
The Chargers could not close the deal at home against Denver last week. They were ahead 20-17 but were outscored 17-3 in the 2nd half and Denver went on to win 34-23 and send San Diego into a situation where they are 3.5 games back and likely fighting for a wildcard spot. It’s not unbelievable that they could pull it together and make a run but they are not playing very inspired football in the trenches, that’s the real story when you boil it down…they can’t seem to block as well and they are not tackling well on defense. The Chargers are avf less than 3 ypc and 60 yds rushing a game, that is terrible and it’s hard to see them getting better. LT is not close to what he once was and Sproles is a complete non factor right now in this offense.
LaDainian Tomlinson had about 100 yds on about 20 touches Monday Night, it’s better but owners want a lot more. He is given a lot of carries and I don’t see that changing right now. If the Bolts continued to lose and got to about 3-6, maybe 4-8…yeah I don’t see LT getting a lot of touches down the stretch should that happen. Again this week he has a nice match up but can he and the OL cash in on these great match ups? I don’t blame owners who are benching LT but with a lot of bye weeks this week, owners are going to have to play him. Sproles should be on the bench for now.
Larry Johnson is showing signs of life. 95 yds on 26 touches including 3 receptions last week. The Chiefs pulled a win and I expect them to try and run the ball a lot this weekend. Although San Diego is suspect through the air they also are giving up a lot on the ground…however they also were fairly solid this past week, but they have to fly away on the road, short week to prepare, I like the Chiefs to put up a good fight this weekend and look for LJ to get a lot of touches again, perhaps this week he can score the Chiefs 1st rushing TD of the season. If San Diego is in a giving mood you could see a 100 yd and a TD type performance this week. Maybe top15 if things go right for him.
Final Score: San Diego 22…Kansas City 20
Green Bay at Cleveland (+7) (42)
The Packers last week took advantage of a passing deficient Detroit Lions team and won 26-0 but I want to point out that they had trouble scoring TDs. Yes they won in a shutout but they should have won 49-0 but they settled for a lot of Mason Crosby FGs, Rodgers threw for 350 and Ryan Grant had his usually 100 yds and no TDs type performance.
The Browns are just terrible and hardly worth the ink to write about and I men that sincerely. They don’t block well, they don’t tackle well, they don’t do anything really well and Mangini just irritates me in his press conferences…talking his team up after they get beat soundly, acting like he is doing a great job, pathetic.
Grant is basically a fringe RB2 when you look at him. He hasn’t has any big games but he hasn’t been awful either…just
steady but even steady would be better if it was 15-16 a week instead of 10-11 as it seems lately. He has 13, 15, 11, 14, 13…so I stand corrected he actually is a solid RB2, but not a lot of upside. This week he has a chance to have a good game, but the reality is to project out more than 13-15 is foolish right now.
The Packers hold teams to 3.6 ypc so I don’t see the upside in Jamal Lewis this week, and until they make the move to Jerome Harrison there really isn’t much to talk about here.
Final Score: Green Bay 27…Cleveland 13
Indy at St Louis (+13) (46)
The Colts had a bye week to rest up before traveling down the road to battle St Louis this weekend. The Rams are at the bottom, they are as bad as we’ve seen from them in the past 4 or 5 seasons, that’s really saying something. They have a real chance to perhaps be a 1 win or worse candidate. They simply cannot score and their defense doesn’t stop anything so look for Manning and the Colts to destroy the Rams this weekend.
Joseph Addai is coming off 22 and 24 point back to back performances despite not rushing the football all that well, he is really benefitting form the receptions with 17 the past 2 weeks and he is 17 for 17 targets the past 2 weeks as well…Manning is going to keep throwing it to him as long as he hauls everything in. I really believe Joseph Addai excels at this phase of the game where he shares the running duties but catches a lot of balls so he is active in the game. I like his chances plenty this week. Gelnn Coffey had 4 catches, the MN RBs combined for 5, MJD had 5 on 7 targets last week. With a WR2 still not clearly defined look for more targets for Addai as he is cashing in there.
Donald Brown was a big disappointment last week for everyone that played him. I expect the Colts to bury the Rams and I think Brown will see some touches and perhaps be a little more like he was in week 2, 3, and 4 where he made a nice 11-12 point flex option for some.
Steven Jackson is steadily making progress for owners. Has not been a top5 pick yet but he is producing each week and not laying complete eggs either. The Colts the past 2 weeks have not been kind to opposing back as Julius Jones and Chris Johnson owners found out. But the Rams are perhaps better at knowing they must get SJax going to have any chance to win a football game. I would not hesitate to put Jackson out there right now.
Final Score: Indianapolis 34…St Louis 14
Minnesota at Pittsburgh (-4) (45)
The Vikings continue to win football game and they are doing it with late 4th quarter Brett Favre heroics. I thought they had the game wrapped up Sunday but they still needed some late game magic form Favre, this speaks to the defense as much as anything. Where would the Vikes be if they didn’t have Favre? Not 6-0 I can assure you…maybe 4-2 and maybe not even that much. The Vikes are in the top10 albeit the back end of the top 10 is both rushing the football and stopping the run, those are ingredients for success and a deep playoff run. People are talking about the Saints but I like these Vikings and all the ways they can really hurt you.
Adrian Peterson will not have an easy time but he is a professional and perhaps the best in the game so I believe he will have a little extra for the Steelers as much as they will in return. Should be a great match and I think both sides will show they are good at what they do but ADP will break off at least 1 big run in this game.
The Steelers are starting to get their ducks in a row. They are now 4-2, tied for 1st place with Cinci and I think they are starting to see the fruits of having Mendy and Parker rolling along with the offense. Pittsburgh has one of the best passing offenses in the league, they are slowly doing in pitt what NE did with Brady and that is have the offense run right thru him. Pitt is thinking get the ball downfield now all the time not just once in awhile. Ward, Holmes, Wallace, and Heath Miller are all getting in on the action. Rashard Mendenhall has posted 33, 15, and 13 for points the past 3 weeks, and while the Vikes are not a juicy match up this isn’t that tough of a run defense right now, plus Ray Rice found some holes a week ago, look for Pitt to try and find some of their own this week. And until further notice Willie Parker has to stay on your bench, he is the RB2 on this team right now…don’t worry it’s probably a fluid situation.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 27…Minnesota 20
San Fran at Houston (-3) (44)
Here is a big problem for Houston this weekend, they really cannot stop the run too well. Jones and Washington ravaged them in week1, Chris Johnson had a career day week 2, MJD scored 3 rushing TDs in week 3, then Oakland and Arizona did not do much although they are weak rushing offenses so I don’t read much into it however they did hold down Cedric Benson this past weekend. I know people are on the Cinci band wagon but I have not really been one of them and I think whether it is Coffey or Gore that San Fran will run the ball and run the ball effectively this weekend.
Slaton is top10 right now. 14, 22, 15, 26…he’s top10 for sure right now over the past 4 weeks in fact this is likely top5 over the past 4 weeks, he’s red hot and he was in big trouble early in the season. Now the Niners can shut down the run. As long as Slaton gets 7-8 targets and 5-6 receptions he will turn a profit for owners this weekend although he will have his work cut out for him.
Final Score: San Fran 20…Houston 19
New England at Tampa Bay (+14.5) (45)
When teams destroy others the way New England did last week…Seattle beats Jax 41-0, turns around and loses 28-3 the next week. San Fran wins 35-0 against St Louis and then gets pummeled 41-10 by Atlanta or whatever the score was. So will NE gets beat by the Bucs? Not hardly, in fact I cannot believe the spread isn’t like 18 or 19 cause this is going to get ugly. New England throws the ball well and Tampa bay is not very good against the pass despite what Jake Delhomme tried to rutn in as a performance…pathetic.
The Pats have a very nice match up no matter how they want to play this. I do think it would benefit them to try and get either Maroney or BJG involved in the running game early. Even though Maroney looked great and he responded well when given the opp, you still have to question WTH he did to end up 3rd string behind old Fred Taylor and old Sammy Morris. I wouldn’t be surprised if BJG ends up being the RB with the most carries, not because I think he is more talented but because the Patriots seem to not stand behind Maroney and I think this might be an excellent time to cash that LM chip in for something you can be more reliant on. But Maroney has a good match up this week so no reason to leave him on the bench. Ben Jarvis Green I would keep on your radar as well.
The Bucs have shown how to spend $20 million for someone else’s back up that can’t even make the field enough in their offense to even really be called the back up. Cadillac Williams continues to get carries in what has been a complete disaster for the Bucs who are thinking 2010 and perhaps even 2011 at the rate they are going. They have holes it seems everywhere on defense and their offense isn’t much to write home about either as they have no Quarterback. I don’t see any Bucs offensive player especially RB as a good play right now.
Final Score: New England 38…Tampa Bay 10
Buffalo at Carolina (NL) (NL)
Both teams love to run the football and neither of them is very good at stopping the run. I would say it is likely green lights across the board. I could go in to some deeper analysis but basically DWill is coming off a 150+ 2TD performance and now will see the worst rush defense in the NFL right now, he should have a monster game on Sunday at home. Look for JStew to also see a good amount of carries as Carolina looks for the quickest way to get to .500 and cool the jets on Coach Fox being fired. He likely will go at the end of the season when they miss the playoffs but if they would just borrow a page form Miami and run the football, not to mention develop a Wildcat of their own and call it Panthersomething they would likely win more football games.
Carolina’defense is not very good but Buffalo is not a world beater on offense although Lynch should find some success on Sunday against the Panthers. I would not hesitate to wheel out Lynch. Look for Carolina to shut down Buffalo and grind out enough on the ground and the scoreboard for the win.
Final Score: Carolina 21…Buffalo 10
NY Jets at Oakland (+6) (35)
The Jets have been in a real tailspin. That would have made Oakland look very tempting this week until they pulled the shocker last week on Philly and suddenly teams have to look at Oakland like a wounded dog that gets abused all week and then Sunday when they take the field it must be a relief to get away form everything else going wrong.
The Raiders are not very good against the run but you have to be patient. I think Philly didn’t do enough running last week and it cost them dearly as they could have pulled into a tie with New York had they won the football game. Sproles and LT both scored on them week 1, LJ had over 100 combined yds week 2, Buck and Moreno combined for almost 200 yds on them, Slaton had a big game, Bradshaw and Jacobs combined for about 175 yds on the ground…these guys are not that good so Jones and Washington should both have some serious chances to cash in on Sunday. The Jets desperately need this win to put a stop to the bleeding.
The Jets lost Kris Jenkins for the season and their rush defense just took a huge blow. I like for either Fargas or Bush to score this weekend but trying to pick one of them is a real challenge. Fargas dominated the carries last week with 23 vs 6 so if McFadden is still OUT this week then I would look for Fargas to have fringe top20 numbers.
Final Score: NY Jets 21…Oakland 17
Atlanta at Dallas (-4) (47)
Lot of things I am looking at in this game, I’ll just list them down in order and try to find something we can hang our hat on here.
1.The Falcons took care of business against Ronnie and Ricky in week 1, Didn’t let DWill and JStew get out of control in week2…those are probably 2 of the top4 or 5 backfield s in the NFL so that is saying something for them. Last week they shut down Matt Forte which is pretty hard to do. But now they turnaround and face the #3 rushing attack in the NFl and that is up for debate because they are #1 in ypc by a lot with just under 6 a clip. They have 7 rushing TD in 5 games, 9 runs of 20 yds or more for the season, they are really good at running the ball.
2.Dallas is not a pushover when it comes to their defense stopping the run. Jacobs and Bradshaw, DWill and JStew, Buck and Moreno, LJ, they have shut them all down pretty well the past 4 weeks. They have had a bye week, will be well rested where Atlanta had to go down to the wire last week with an emotional win against the bears, now they travel to Dallas and I think that will have an impact on them.
3.The big win last week for me means that Atlanta could have an emotional let down this week. Dallas just watched everyone move back to them in the NFC East so they are probably liking their chances as they move ahead the next few weeks. Falcons are 4-1 and while they need to win in order to stay pace with the Saints, I don’t see this as a must win by any stretch for them.
Michael Turner has been shaky as a starter and this week I am not going to project him as being an RB1, in fact I think he has a very average day at best in Dallas.
Whoever starts in Dallas is a good choice. I don’t know the status of Felix Jones as I am writing this, nor of MB III either. Look for Choice to stay involved no matter who is the starter in Dallas. Even though Atlanta is a fairly tough opponent I doubt they can keep the Dallas rushing attack in check all night.
Final Score: Dallas 24…Atlanta 17
New Orleans at Miami (+6.5) (47)
You know my heart is pulling for Miami but how do they stand a chance against the best team in the NFL right now? We talk a lot about who has this team beat and who has that team beat but New Orleans has beaten New York and Philly already so they look pretty good. They are going to see New England in about a month or so and that game will tell us a lot too. That said their rush defense which ahs been really good is going to be put to the challenge but the #1 rushing offense in all the NFL right now, that’s right the Miami Dolphins are turning into amphibians and running the ball on land as best they can.
Other teams try and emulate the Wildcat offense but most cannot do it. Maimi has the right personnel and they continue to bring in more and more players that can help them run it. Most of the time they direct snap to Ronnie who really just picks an A gap assignment in the middle and runs a power play as the C/G crackdown on the NT/DT and create a hole where Ronnie squirts through and into the secondary. It’s not fancy but it is very effective and has to be down right gut wrenching to watch if you root for the opposing team and you keep watching the same stunt play called over and over again and it keeps being run down your throat till you choke.
The Saints offense is really impressive and they have a lot of ways they can hurt you. At RB right now we are seeing all 3 backs including Bell, Thomas, and Bush contributing. Last week Thomas got 15 carries and so did Mike Bell. Thomas got a lot of his carries early when the game was still in the balance, along the way Mike Bell was called upon to score form short yardage. Mike Bell had 10 carries in the 2nd half including 8 in the 4th quarter when the game was pretty lopsided. I know Bell owners want to create magic and stuff that isn’t there, and so I am sticking with Thomas as the back to start there for now. Bell a possible flex option or when they are blowing teams out he is likely to get more touches. He still was only 15/34 last week but the TD made it appear he was a lot more involved in the offense than he was.
Ronnie Brown is going to have a rough go of it but I believe Miami will have a game plan to get him involved and I look for something similar to what they tried and almost won with against Indy…the problem is New Orleans has a defense and they are proving they are not a 1 dimensional team that only plays offense. Fred Jackson’s 18 carries for 70 yds and almost 95 yds combined is about the best anyone has done so far. I do think Ronnie will turn a profit for owners this week although I don’t expect him to be anywhere close to top5 this week.
Ricky Williams keeps getting asked about, I simply say to you that he is second fiddle to Ronnie and I would not expect anything big from him this weekend.
Final Score: New Orleans 23…Miami 21, gonna be way closer than you think.
Chicago at Cincinnati (-1.5) (42)
Both teams are frauds right now. Cinci is not going to the playoffs, they might be a .500 team but they have a ways to go before they are ready to actually turn the corner. Wins over Pitt and Baltimore right now don’t make me trust them long term for the season. And the Bears are so up and down you just never know who is going to show up. One thing for sure is they should stay off Sunday Night Football, Cutler has looked awful those 2 games this season.
Matt Forte right now is really not making owners happy. Only against Detroit has he had any real success this season and now panic is starting to set in. Jerome Harrison surpsingly has had the best day of most of the RBs although Slaton killed them OOTB last week with 6 grabs for over 100 yds and a TD…Forte can do those things if Chicago turns him loose. They have to win this football game and I think they will doeverything they can to get Forte involved in that offense, he has to for them to keep winning.
Cedric Benson had a very pedestrian week last week and as I mentioned he would be prone to do. He’s a great RB2 and will continue to sprinkle in some real big games during the year but not this week. Turner was held in check most of the day last week and I think Chicago can keep their old team mate under wraps for most of the game. Benson has no heart, that was proven in the Super Bowl against Indy a couple years back so don’t think he is going to avenge his previous career with them…there is a reason he plays for Cinci now.
Final Score: Chicago 21…Cincinnati 13
Arizona at New York Giants (-7) (46.5)
Two teams with very different outcomes this past weekend. The Cardinals go on the road where they are not the best at traveling all the time, however they marched into Seattle and ripped off 28-3 dominating victory where they got up early and basically cruised the rest of the way. The Giants were blown out in New Orleans, everyone has a bad game once in awhile and I think the Giants are better than they showed this past Sunday.
Other than Dallas most of the teams that have faced the New York Giants have been pretty bottled up running the football. Yes the Saints did move the ball and scored 3 times on the groud but I think they were so busy stopping the pass they couldn’t even think about the run although they did and it cost them a couple of easy TDs for the Saints.
Tim Hightower has been a pleasant surprise for owners that grabbed him this year. 25, 17, 11, 15, 15, the guys has been pretty consistent and while he will have his hands full this weekend he should still scrape double digits for owners, ride him till he falls apart. Chris Wells should be riding your bench until further notice.
The Cardinals have not allowed more than 66 yds rushing from one back all year, in fact only two have run for more than 40 all year. Gore, MJD, Slaton, all these backs have struggled to run the football so why will Bradhsaw and Jacobs do well this weekend? Except for last week the Cardinals have allowed a lot thru the air this season. I believe the Giants will take to the air, Eli will lead the charge and I would expect a couple of short TDs when the Giants get inside the 5.
Ahmad Bradshaw is running hard right now, and he is actually more productive as of late to Jacobs. I would play Bradshaw in the flex this week although he doesn’t catch a lot of passes, kind of misused in that sense but he is really showcasing himself and his game is elevating before our eyes, you really need to tune in and watch this kid as he takes some steps in gathering a larger role. Someone broke down earlier last week that Bradhsaw is not getting more snaps but more touches when he is in the ball game, interesting slant on things.
Brandon Jacobs should get a lot of carries if he is not hurt. I believe he left the game with a stinger last week, let’s wait for
the injury report before we take any big projections into account here.
Final Score: New York 27…Arizona 24
Philly at Washington (+7) (37.5)
You talk about a couple of wounded dogs this week. The Eagles go and drop a very easy match up in Oakland and take a major step backwards. Coach Reid of course takes all the blame, McNabb looks mystified as usual when this happens, the media doesn’t know what to make of it, simply disastrous. Then we turn to the Redskins who look ready to implode at any moment. JayZee is a joke in Washington, stripped of his play calling, just strip him of his Skins gear and show him the door already, it’s the only decent thing to do. You can also toss out Vinny the GM and most of the front office. Go find Rich McKay and hire him as your VP of Operations and let him run the whole thing from top to bottom, and let him hire Tony Dungy out of retirement as his 1st task. Actually, I’d have to like the Skins if that happened and that can’t be so we’ll end that daydream session right now.
Brian Westbrook is now only supposed to carry the ball about 10-12 times a game now right? Well owners were not unhappy this past weekend as he caught 9 balls for 90 yds and ended up with about 23 points in most leagues, likely good for top 10 pushing top5. I would not panic as they need a win, look for him to be active and involved in the passing game again heavily as they will have to fight hard to win this week. McCoy is still a bench rider for now.
Clinton Portis did his usual “I have a great match up let me turn in ho hum numbers for owners.” He was about 15th last week which is fine as he fell in so many drafts this year that many are using him as an RB2 which he has been fine at as a fringe top30 player overall for the season. I imagine he will get a workload but who knows what to expect from Sherman Lewis calling plays who was last doing some weird job for a person who has his resume. I’ll let the board decide if he is a good play or not, but I wouldn’t be in a hurry to wheel him out as the offense is in total disarray for the moment.
Final Score: Philly 17…Washington 10
Great stuff as always!! Do you think if the Colts manage to shut down SJax, that there run defense is not the spongy one of old? STL isn't really a good team to base a opposing defense on, and the lack of rushes agianst Indy the last several weeks has to be accounted for aswell, but to me it seems as if they have improved, even without Sanders in. Thoughts on Indy's run D?
Great stuff as always!! Do you think if the Colts manage to shut down SJax, that there run defense is not the spongy one of old? STL isn't really a good team to base a opposing defense on, and the lack of rushes agianst Indy the last several weeks has to be accounted for aswell, but to me it seems as if they have improved, even without Sanders in. Thoughts on Indy's run D?
