Re-Draft QB Targets: Jay Cutler (1 Viewer)

[orangecrush15]

Jay Cutler is currently regarded by most sites in the 12-16 range among QB's in redraft leagues. To me this is a tremendous value, and I will be targeting Cutler as my starter in re-draft leagues this year. Cutler played pretty damn well last year when he was healthy, and the additions I will outline below give him legitimate top 5 QB potential this year. At worst I think he will be in the 8-10 range among QB's. Here is my reasoning:

1. The addition of Brandon Marshall- Brandon Marshall is the perfect receiver for Jay Cutler, and the two already have an incredible rapport. Cutler loves to squeeze the ball into tight windows and into high traffic areas. Marshall is an absolute beast with the size, athleticism, and mentality to make tough contested catches. Marshall was a safety net for Cutler in Denver. I remember in that infamous Ed Hochuli game against the Chargers, Marshall had something like 18 or 19 catches. Marshall can turn routine underneath routes into huge yardage gains after the catch. His presence will be huge for Cutler, and as long as Marshall plays 16 games 100 catches should be no big thing for him. In the two seasons Cutler started in Denver, Marshall had 102 catches and 104 catches.

2. The addition of Alshon Jeffery- Jeffery is a very similar player to Marshall, and gives Cutler another target that he can trust to make those classic "F you" Jay Cutler throws.

3. The addition of Jeremy Bates- This is the most important addition of all. Cutler was very close to Bates during his time as QB coach in Denver. Bates not being allowed to call plays when McDaniels took over was a big reason why Cutler wanted out of Denver. Bates called the plays in Denver for the 2008 season. This was Cutler's third season, and his coming out party in the NFL. Here is Cutler's stat line for that season.

384/616, 62.3 Comp %, 4,526 yards, 25 TD, 18 INT, 57 RUSH, 205 yards rushing, 2 rushing TD

Bates knows how to use Cutler (and Marshall for that matter) and already stated that he plans to make use of Cutler's athleticism by getting him outside the pocket a lot more. Cutler is a great passer when on the run, and has some deceptive speed and athleticism as a runner. I believe Mike Tice will be calling the plays for the Bears, but Bates presence in Chicago will be as important if not more important to Cutler's success in my opinion. Cutler swears by Bates, and I believe Cutler is poised for a career year after reuniting with both Bates and Marshall.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Buying him redraft n dynasty

qb2 that's more than capable of finishing top8.

 

[David Yudkin]

Cutler may do better than people expect, but I don't see him hoisting the ball up 616 times like he did in Denver in 2008. The Bears defense is better than the Broncos was and they should also have a very good running game between Forte and Bush. Chicago only passed the ball 473 times last year and 466 the year before. They probably would have passed more had Cutler not gotten hurt . . . but not 140 times more.

Even if Cutler repeated his numbers from 2008 (347 fantasy points) when he ranked as QB5, that same total would no longer be a Top 5 QB (would have ranked as QB9 last year). Given that I don't think he will throw the ball as much (and may not do as well totals wise as 2008), I have a hard time seeing Cutler being a fantasy QB1 in 12 team fantasy leagues.

Cutler could be a good QB to pick up in the middle rounds, but if you have to start him you'd better be stacked at other positions to compete against teams with the uber scoring QBs.

 

[PhantomJB]

Cutler may have some decent value but I would be careful if you play in a league that penalizes for QB negative plays (sacks, INTs, fumbles, etc.). CHI failed to address their OL in the draft and although Cutler has better weapons he may still be a risky play week-to-week. Eliminating the Martz 85-step drop may help but probably not enough to overcome their lack of talent upfront.

 

[meyerj31]

Sure, he's a buy at current value and will be slightly undervalued in re-drafts.

But don't get going on the hype train too much. That offense runs through Forte. Even if he holds out, there isn't going to be a massive shift to throwing the ball 60 times a game. They'll just plug in Bush and keep chugging.

I wouldn't expect more than 75-80 catches from Marshall. If he did that I would consider the season a tremendous success regarding his addition. Expecting Marshall to catch 100 balls in a run-first offense with two backs that are very capable catching out of the backfield, is setting yourself up for disappointment, especially given that they'll be incorporating TEs more this year.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Chicago was a run first offense BEFORE they acquired Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, 4th round pick TE Evan Rodriguez, etc. You don't add that talent to have them block.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

They ran a lot because they had no starting quality wrs.

i look for about 550 pass attempts

 

[David Yudkin]

Chicago was a run first offense BEFORE they acquired Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, 4th round pick TE Evan Rodriguez, etc. You don't add that talent to have them block.

But you can add talent to spread the defense and run more successfully with fewer defenders in the box.I am pretty sure they will pass more than they did last year. But I doubt they will be in the Top 3 in passing attempts like Denver was in 2008.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Worth noting is that in 2009 with Ron Turner at OC, Cutler did throw the ball 555 times. Of course, he also threw 26 INT that season as well.

I can see him getting 525-540 pass attempts but I also wouldn't be surprised if Lovie Smith turns more towards the run if Cutler struggles with turning the ball over.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Chicago was a run first offense BEFORE they acquired Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, 4th round pick TE Evan Rodriguez, etc. You don't add that talent to have them block.

But you can add talent to spread the defense and run more successfully with fewer defenders in the box.I am pretty sure they will pass more than they did last year. But I doubt they will be in the Top 3 in passing attempts like Denver was in 2008.

I agree they won't be in the top 3, but they will have a more effective/pass attempts than in the past couple of seasons.Matt Forte was the offense because Chicago had no other choice.

 

[mr roboto]

Never seen a fanbase so happy to have a Mike Martz passing attack GONE and a Mike Tice offense installed.

 

[massraider]

I like Cutler, but I don't see him as a starter on championship title teams. Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Brady, Newton, I don't see Cutler suddenly jumping into this area. He may play as well as some of those guys, NFL-wise, but I don't see the fantasy points.

We're supposed to crank him up to top 10 status because of the world's smallest TE in Marshall, the fat rookie Alshon, and some 4th round TE? Nah....

 

[DoubleG]

Cutler may do better than people expect, but I don't see him hoisting the ball up 616 times like he did in Denver in 2008. The Bears defense is better than the Broncos was and they should also have a very good running game between Forte and Bush. Chicago only passed the ball 473 times last year and 466 the year before. They probably would have passed more had Cutler not gotten hurt . . . but not 140 times more.

Even if Cutler repeated his numbers from 2008 (347 fantasy points) when he ranked as QB5, that same total would no longer be a Top 5 QB (would have ranked as QB9 last year). Given that I don't think he will throw the ball as much (and may not do as well totals wise as 2008), I have a hard time seeing Cutler being a fantasy QB1 in 12 team fantasy leagues.

Cutler could be a good QB to pick up in the middle rounds, but if you have to start him you'd better be stacked at other positions to compete against teams with the uber scoring QBs.

One question with regard to the bolded (with some background) Last year's QB numbers were fairly outrageous at the top. As an example, on one dynasty league I am in, the top 5 QBs all scored 400+ fantasy points. In the history of that league QBs had only scored 400+ twice...in the previous 7 years...combined - the year Manning threw 48 TDs and the year Brady threw 50. That's it. If you took Brees's 2008 season (the year you're citing for Cutler) - who lead FF and the NFL with 5K+ passing yards and 34 TDs would have been QB6. In fact, if you take Rodgers' performance in 2010 (he was the leading FF scorer in that scoring format) - he qould have been QB7 in 2011.

While I fully undertand that times, they are a changin' - I don't think they're changing that much or that quickly (that the QB1 one season would be the QB7 the next). My point is simply this - last year's QB numbers are quite possibly a little bit of an outlier (at least at the top). While I think we WILL see multiple QBs throw for 5k yards, the fact is that some of those will be the Jay Cutler's and Tony Romo's, as there are only so many Brees' and Mannings' and they are getting older.

The question: Do you think the top 5 QBs is 2012 will have stats similar to the top 5 in 2011? If so why? (when history suggest a return closer to the mean)

 

[joey]

Love him as my QB2 in dynasty behind Stafford in a league with no INT penalties and 4pt per passTD, and Keep 12 players only.

The price I paid (assuming some might care to have a data point for trade value):

Matt Ryan, Bernard Scott, 2012 2.11

for

Cutler, 2012 1.07

I figured Ryan is averaging around QB10 in dynasty (actually QB12 in FBG avg dyn rankings), so it wasn't really a big dip at all to Cutler (who's QB14 in FBG dynasty rankings). But the NAME VALUE of Ryan is much higher than Cutler's imo, so I think it's something that owners could take advantage of as a solid back up QB. Let's face it, if Stafford gets hurt, it's a big step down to either Ryan or Cutler either way.

ETA: sorry, just noticed the word "re-draft" in the thread title. duh.

 

[David Yudkin]

Cutler may do better than people expect, but I don't see him hoisting the ball up 616 times like he did in Denver in 2008. The Bears defense is better than the Broncos was and they should also have a very good running game between Forte and Bush. Chicago only passed the ball 473 times last year and 466 the year before. They probably would have passed more had Cutler not gotten hurt . . . but not 140 times more.

Even if Cutler repeated his numbers from 2008 (347 fantasy points) when he ranked as QB5, that same total would no longer be a Top 5 QB (would have ranked as QB9 last year). Given that I don't think he will throw the ball as much (and may not do as well totals wise as 2008), I have a hard time seeing Cutler being a fantasy QB1 in 12 team fantasy leagues.

Cutler could be a good QB to pick up in the middle rounds, but if you have to start him you'd better be stacked at other positions to compete against teams with the uber scoring QBs.

One question with regard to the bolded (with some background) Last year's QB numbers were fairly outrageous at the top. As an example, on one dynasty league I am in, the top 5 QBs all scored 400+ fantasy points. In the history of that league QBs had only scored 400+ twice...in the previous 7 years...combined - the year Manning threw 48 TDs and the year Brady threw 50. That's it. If you took Brees's 2008 season (the year you're citing for Cutler) - who lead FF and the NFL with 5K+ passing yards and 34 TDs would have been QB6. In fact, if you take Rodgers' performance in 2010 (he was the leading FF scorer in that scoring format) - he qould have been QB7 in 2011.

While I fully undertand that times, they are a changin' - I don't think they're changing that much or that quickly (that the QB1 one season would be the QB7 the next). My point is simply this - last year's QB numbers are quite possibly a little bit of an outlier (at least at the top). While I think we WILL see multiple QBs throw for 5k yards, the fact is that some of those will be the Jay Cutler's and Tony Romo's, as there are only so many Brees' and Mannings' and they are getting older.

The question: Do you think the top 5 QBs is 2012 will have stats similar to the top 5 in 2011? If so why? (when history suggest a return closer to the mean)

Here is the evolution of QB scoring since 2000, listing QBs that scored 300, 350, and 400 fantasy points in a season.2000 6, 4, 2

2001 8, 2, 0

2002 10, 2, 0

2003 6, 0, 0

2004 10, 3, 2

2005 3, 0, 0

2006 5, 1, 0

2007 8, 2, 1

2008 8, 3, 0

2009 10, 6, 1

2010 11, 6, 0

2011 10, 8, 5

It sure looks like in the past 3 years QB scoring has spiked pretty high. As far as Cutler goes, I just don't see Chicago putting up Top 5 passing numbers when there are other teams putting up video game passing numbers. Put another way, if Cutler does put up numbers similar to 2008 in Denver, there will be other teams and other QBs doing even better than he did.

I'm open to hear arguments why defenses will do better or why elite passing numbers will drop off. I have been suggesting the numbers were fluky and they were due to fall off the past couple of seasons and that hasn't happened. I am beginning to thing passing numbers are (sadly) still on the rise as long as the rules for defense are pretty much two hand touch on quarterbacks. I think the NFL likes having 41-38 games more than they like 10-6 games. The games run longer, they get more air time because the games take longer, and more people probably tune in for shootouts.

 

[mbuehner]

Bears gotta keep pace with rodgers and stafford, theyll throw the ball plenty whethee they wanr to or not. Key point here is Cutlers TDs have a lot of upside given his completion percentage and y/a. Everything is pointing to a top 10 season EXCEPT for the real possibility of injury thanks to thwt turnstyle of an oline. Have a strong backup if you draft cutler.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

As far as Cutler goes, I just don't see Chicago putting up Top 5 passing numbers when there are other teams putting up video game passing numbers. Put another way, if Cutler does put up numbers similar to 2008 in Denver, there will be other teams and other QBs doing even better than he did.

So you believe:1) Chicago doesn't have the ability to support a top 5 passing team2) Cutler doesn't have the ability to produce a top 5 passing team3) Or a combination of bothLets just call a spade a spade here...the Chicago WR's have been poor for Cutler's entire tenure. Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, etc.Lets compare Denver 2008 vs Chicago 2012:RB=Chicago Matt Forte/Michael Bush are much better receiving RBsTE= Denver Scheffler/Dan GrahamWR= Even. Marshall is the same player. Eddie Royal vs Alshon Jeffery. Royal had a crazy good rookie year and then nothing after. Earl Bennett vs Stokley. Pretty much even. Devin Hester vs Darrell Jackson. Hester wins this battle as he has a lot more ability as a package player and can hopefully concentrate his efforts.OL=Denver wins this one in a big wayI don't see a huge differential that would make it impossible for Chicago to have a good to great passing offense like Denver in 2008.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Dont see a QB2 Id rather have. I think he definitely has the potential to have a Top 8 season, but Id only put a 33% chance on that. Very high floor though, and great value as of now. He's going 4 rounds after Ryan, 2+ rounds after Roethlisberger. I cant think of any scenario where you wouldnt target him as your backup, unless you get a Top 5 guy and want to go all upside/high risk with RG3 or Luck (whose ADP's are up to 30+ picks higher than Cutler though which is another reason I'll pass on that strategy).

 

[Awful Waffle]

I have him as a backup to Phillip Rivers. Should I keep both or try to trade one? I have a fear of many weeks where I'm torn on who to start.

 

[David Yudkin]

As far as Cutler goes, I just don't see Chicago putting up Top 5 passing numbers when there are other teams putting up video game passing numbers. Put another way, if Cutler does put up numbers similar to 2008 in Denver, there will be other teams and other QBs doing even better than he did.

So you believe:1) Chicago doesn't have the ability to support a top 5 passing team2) Cutler doesn't have the ability to produce a top 5 passing team3) Or a combination of bothLets just call a spade a spade here...the Chicago WR's have been poor for Cutler's entire tenure. Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, etc.Lets compare Denver 2008 vs Chicago 2012:RB=Chicago Matt Forte/Michael Bush are much better receiving RBsTE= Denver Scheffler/Dan GrahamWR= Even. Marshall is the same player. Eddie Royal vs Alshon Jeffery. Royal had a crazy good rookie year and then nothing after. Earl Bennett vs Stokley. Pretty much even. Devin Hester vs Darrell Jackson. Hester wins this battle as he has a lot more ability as a package player and can hopefully concentrate his efforts.OL=Denver wins this one in a big wayI don't see a huge differential that would make it impossible for Chicago to have a good to great passing offense like Denver in 2008.

Here is a breakdown of team fantasy points scored by QBs in 2011:

GBP	503.2NOS	459.6NEP	435.5CAR	426.9DET	409.3DAL	355.9NYG	353PHI	349.7ATL	341.1SDC	328.8NYJ	307.4DEN	305.2TEN	296.5PIT	290.1TBB	290MIN	287.9OAK	287BUF	286.5ARI	279MIA	275.4HOU	274.5WAS	271.7CIN	266.7BAL	263.6SFO	252CHI	247.6CLE	246.1SEA	233.8KCC	207.7STL	202.6IND	186.5JAX	170.6

I realize every season is different, but the Bears were pretty near the bottom last year and WAY far from the top. They mave have added some better pieces to the passing game . . . but they still didn't address the OL. As far as the team goes, no I do not think the Bears coaching philosophy will produce a Top 5 passing game for a number of reasons:1) They won't pass enough.2) They still will rely more on the run and play solid defense.3) Based on that, they peobably won't risk Cutler turning the ball over if they are ahead. (As mentioned by others, Cutler does have a history of throwing lots of picks.)4) CHI has struggled recently to keep Cutler upright. A banged up Cutler probably would have little shot of ranking in the Top 10.5) Cutler has not shown the ability to throw enough TD to generate the points to rank in what has now become the Top 5 for QBs. He's had one season with enough passing yards (that one season in DEN), but his next best season was 3600+ yards passing.6) I see no reason to think that the top tier passing teams will be any less successful. Even if passing totals as a whole go backwards some, I don't see a scenario where the rest of the league falls way back while the Bears shoot way, way up.7) Many teams also have improved their chances of having better passing numbers and/or better fantasy scoring . . . it's not just the Bears that tried to improve.Overall, CHI might produce more through the air . . . but probably not enough for Cutler to have a real fantasy impact. Even if Cutler were to sneak into the bottom rungs as a QB1 in a 12 team league, that's leaving a lot of points to make up most weeks against the truly top fantasy QBs.I will add that I am not anti-Cutler. I have owned him ever year he's played and on multiple teams to boot. At best, IMO, he's a decent QB2 that might have some decent scoring weeks, but there are better options out there (and probably mandatory options if you want your team to do more than hold it's own or have bigger scoring weeks at QB).If I were to go fishing for a QB with a better shot at ranking in the Top 10 for a limited investment in a redraft league, I would look to target Carson Palmer, who is currently going 5-7 rounds later than Cutler is. If teams had the roster space, I also would look at pairing Sanchez and Tebow late, as whoever is starting for the Jets will also put up low end QB1 numbers (or close to it . . . and probably better than Cutler). The Jets really didn't address their ground game at all and will likely have to pass more (if Sanchez is starting). If they end up going with Tebow, we've already seen that he can put up QB1 numbers.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Here is a breakdown of team fantasy points scored by QBs in 2011:

GBP 503.2NOS 459.6NEP 435.5CAR 426.9DET 409.3DAL 355.9NYG 353PHI 349.7ATL 341.1SDC 328.8NYJ 307.4DEN 305.2TEN 296.5PIT 290.1TBB 290MIN 287.9OAK 287BUF 286.5ARI 279MIA 275.4HOU 274.5WAS 271.7CIN 266.7BAL 263.6SFO 252CHI 247.6CLE 246.1SEA 233.8KCC 207.7STL 202.6IND 186.5JAX 170.6You have to wait until the NYJ at #11 on the list until you find a team without truly special talents at WR/TE to support the QB. Most of those top 10 teams have 2+ pieces that are special talents. So is it the QB or the talents around them?Here are the teams that had special talents that didn't have good QB FF seasons:

KCC 207.7- Dwayne Bowe, but Matt Cassel missing a large portion of the season obviously hurt.

SF 252- Vernon Davis, but Alex Smith isn't a great QB(we all can agree)

CIN 266.7- AJ Green, Dalton was a rookie so not fair to them.

HOU 274.2- AJ was hurt for most of the season and then Schuab went down.

MIA 275.4- Marshall, but Henne/Moore aren't very good.

ARI- 279- Fitz, Kolb/Skelton aren't good either.

MIN- Harvin, played with McNugget and rookie QB.

As you can see teams with a WR1 either have injuries/rookie QB/poor QB. Cutler is better than all of the QBs on that list. Which would make me think that by adding Marshall, Cutler would jump past these teams easily.

If Cutler doesn't miss 1/3 of the season, I can see Chicago in the 290's last season which is borderline QB1/high end QB2.

Combining those two are they really a long shot to get into the 330/340/350's?



I realize every season is different, but the Bears were pretty near the bottom last year and WAY far from the top. They mave have added some better pieces to the passing game . . . but they still didn't address the OL. 1st round pick Gabe Carimi missed almost all of his rookie season, he will provide a huge boost at RT. Chilo Rachel was brought in to start at Guard, he ranked in the top half of the league in 2010 for Guards. Chris Williams will compete with JaMarcus Webb at LT...hopefully competition/development will improve LT. All of that plus a change in philosophy will improve the OL.

As far as the team goes, no I do not think the Bears coaching philosophy will produce a Top 5 passing game for a number of reasons:

1) They won't pass enough.How many attempts do they need to get to? Legit question, not being a #####.

2) They still will rely more on the run and play solid defense.Bringing in Michael Bush would give that indication...but also insurance for holdout and Forte has had two knee injuries.

3) Based on that, they peobably won't risk Cutler turning the ball over if they are ahead. (As mentioned by others, Cutler does have a history of throwing lots of picks.)He does throw picks, I expect that to improve with WRs that actually go and get the ball.

4) CHI has struggled recently to keep Cutler upright. A banged up Cutler probably would have little shot of ranking in the Top 10.See OL post above...they won't be a top 10 OL...but they won't be worst in the league.

5) Cutler has not shown the ability to throw enough TD to generate the points to rank in what has now become the Top 5 for QBs. He's had one season with enough passing yards (that one season in DEN), but his next best season was 3600+ yards passing.These numbers are based on having poor targets around him.

6) I see no reason to think that the top tier passing teams will be any less successful. Even if passing totals as a whole go backwards some, I don't see a scenario where the rest of the league falls way back while the Bears shoot way, way up.I agree that they should all be somewhat close to last year...barring injury.

7) Many teams also have improved their chances of having better passing numbers and/or better fantasy scoring . . . it's not just the Bears that tried to improve.No team in the league added a #1 WR and a WR with the potential of Jeffery.

I will add that I am not anti-Cutler. I know, I enjoy a good debate.

 

[DoubleG]

As far as Cutler goes, I just don't see Chicago putting up Top 5 passing numbers when there are other teams putting up video game passing numbers. Put another way, if Cutler does put up numbers similar to 2008 in Denver, there will be other teams and other QBs doing even better than he did.

So you believe:1) Chicago doesn't have the ability to support a top 5 passing team2) Cutler doesn't have the ability to produce a top 5 passing team3) Or a combination of bothLets just call a spade a spade here...the Chicago WR's have been poor for Cutler's entire tenure. Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, etc.Lets compare Denver 2008 vs Chicago 2012:RB=Chicago Matt Forte/Michael Bush are much better receiving RBsTE= Denver Scheffler/Dan GrahamWR= Even. Marshall is the same player. Eddie Royal vs Alshon Jeffery. Royal had a crazy good rookie year and then nothing after. Earl Bennett vs Stokley. Pretty much even. Devin Hester vs Darrell Jackson. Hester wins this battle as he has a lot more ability as a package player and can hopefully concentrate his efforts.OL=Denver wins this one in a big wayI don't see a huge differential that would make it impossible for Chicago to have a good to great passing offense like Denver in 2008.

Here is a breakdown of team fantasy points scored by QBs in 2011:

GBP	503.2NOS	459.6NEP	435.5CAR	426.9DET	409.3DAL	355.9NYG	353PHI	349.7ATL	341.1SDC	328.8NYJ	307.4DEN	305.2TEN	296.5PIT	290.1TBB	290MIN	287.9OAK	287BUF	286.5ARI	279MIA	275.4HOU	274.5WAS	271.7CIN	266.7BAL	263.6SFO	252CHI	247.6CLE	246.1SEA	233.8KCC	207.7STL	202.6IND	186.5JAX	170.6

I realize every season is different, but the Bears were pretty near the bottom last year and WAY far from the top. They mave have added some better pieces to the passing game . . . but they still didn't address the OL. As far as the team goes, no I do not think the Bears coaching philosophy will produce a Top 5 passing game for a number of reasons:1) They won't pass enough.2) They still will rely more on the run and play solid defense.3) Based on that, they peobably won't risk Cutler turning the ball over if they are ahead. (As mentioned by others, Cutler does have a history of throwing lots of picks.)4) CHI has struggled recently to keep Cutler upright. A banged up Cutler probably would have little shot of ranking in the Top 10.5) Cutler has not shown the ability to throw enough TD to generate the points to rank in what has now become the Top 5 for QBs. He's had one season with enough passing yards (that one season in DEN), but his next best season was 3600+ yards passing.6) I see no reason to think that the top tier passing teams will be any less successful. Even if passing totals as a whole go backwards some, I don't see a scenario where the rest of the league falls way back while the Bears shoot way, way up.7) Many teams also have improved their chances of having better passing numbers and/or better fantasy scoring . . . it's not just the Bears that tried to improve.Overall, CHI might produce more through the air . . . but probably not enough for Cutler to have a real fantasy impact. Even if Cutler were to sneak into the bottom rungs as a QB1 in a 12 team league, that's leaving a lot of points to make up most weeks against the truly top fantasy QBs.I will add that I am not anti-Cutler. I have owned him ever year he's played and on multiple teams to boot. At best, IMO, he's a decent QB2 that might have some decent scoring weeks, but there are better options out there (and probably mandatory options if you want your team to do more than hold it's own or have bigger scoring weeks at QB).If I were to go fishing for a QB with a better shot at ranking in the Top 10 for a limited investment in a redraft league, I would look to target Carson Palmer, who is currently going 5-7 rounds later than Cutler is. If teams had the roster space, I also would look at pairing Sanchez and Tebow late, as whoever is starting for the Jets will also put up low end QB1 numbers (or close to it . . . and probably better than Cutler). The Jets really didn't address their ground game at all and will likely have to pass more (if Sanchez is starting). If they end up going with Tebow, we've already seen that he can put up QB1 numbers.

Alright, I am not sure if you are being intentionally disinegnous or not, as that is typically not your style, but a few points regarding your above "research":First off, you cite the Bears QB position last season - a season where 6 of the games were played by someone other than Cutler. Secondly, you site a season that saw the absence of Matt Forte for 5 games. Third you site a season where the Bears WR group looks considerably different than it does currently.For starters, if you take Cutler's 10 games last season and extrapolate them to a 16 game season, He would have had about 3700 passing yards with 21 TDs and 11 INTs - his numbers would have put him around QB14, just behind Big Ben. But again, we are extrapolating stats based on a starting WR group of Hester, Beenet and Knox - not Marshall, Jeffrey and Bennet. In regards to your point about Cutler and INTs - he was top 10 in QBs in INT% (yes, that's a % so it accounts for lower attempts) - and again, that is with less-than-stellar and undersized WRs running bad routes.Now, in fairness to your point, the original discussion was whether or not Cutler was a starter in a 12 teamer (not top 5, as benson changed it to). As already pointed out, had he not broken his thumb, he would have ended up in the QB14 area - with the anemic WR group he had to work with. QB14 is a few extra TDs and a couple hundred passing yards from QB1 territory - a difference Marshall and Jeffrey can clearly help make up...and then some.Yes, If Tebow ends up the starter for the Jets, he also has the possibility of putting up QB1 numbers - but Cutler is already the starter, so clearly, at this point in time Cutler is the "safer" of the two.

 

[Tony Soprano]

Bears gotta keep pace with rodgers and stafford, theyll throw the ball plenty whethee they wanr to or not. Key point here is Cutlers TDs have a lot of upside given his completion percentage and y/a. Everything is pointing to a top 10 season EXCEPT for the real possibility of injury thanks to thwt turnstyle of an oline. Have a strong backup if you draft cutler.

great post. I love Cutler as the 2nd end of a QBBC.

 

[David Yudkin]

As far as Cutler goes, I just don't see Chicago putting up Top 5 passing numbers when there are other teams putting up video game passing numbers. Put another way, if Cutler does put up numbers similar to 2008 in Denver, there will be other teams and other QBs doing even better than he did.

So you believe:1) Chicago doesn't have the ability to support a top 5 passing team2) Cutler doesn't have the ability to produce a top 5 passing team3) Or a combination of bothLets just call a spade a spade here...the Chicago WR's have been poor for Cutler's entire tenure. Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, etc.Lets compare Denver 2008 vs Chicago 2012:RB=Chicago Matt Forte/Michael Bush are much better receiving RBsTE= Denver Scheffler/Dan GrahamWR= Even. Marshall is the same player. Eddie Royal vs Alshon Jeffery. Royal had a crazy good rookie year and then nothing after. Earl Bennett vs Stokley. Pretty much even. Devin Hester vs Darrell Jackson. Hester wins this battle as he has a lot more ability as a package player and can hopefully concentrate his efforts.OL=Denver wins this one in a big wayI don't see a huge differential that would make it impossible for Chicago to have a good to great passing offense like Denver in 2008.

Here is a breakdown of team fantasy points scored by QBs in 2011:

GBP	503.2NOS	459.6NEP	435.5CAR	426.9DET	409.3DAL	355.9NYG	353PHI	349.7ATL	341.1SDC	328.8NYJ	307.4DEN	305.2TEN	296.5PIT	290.1TBB	290MIN	287.9OAK	287BUF	286.5ARI	279MIA	275.4HOU	274.5WAS	271.7CIN	266.7BAL	263.6SFO	252CHI	247.6CLE	246.1SEA	233.8KCC	207.7STL	202.6IND	186.5JAX	170.6

I realize every season is different, but the Bears were pretty near the bottom last year and WAY far from the top. They mave have added some better pieces to the passing game . . . but they still didn't address the OL. As far as the team goes, no I do not think the Bears coaching philosophy will produce a Top 5 passing game for a number of reasons:1) They won't pass enough.2) They still will rely more on the run and play solid defense.3) Based on that, they peobably won't risk Cutler turning the ball over if they are ahead. (As mentioned by others, Cutler does have a history of throwing lots of picks.)4) CHI has struggled recently to keep Cutler upright. A banged up Cutler probably would have little shot of ranking in the Top 10.5) Cutler has not shown the ability to throw enough TD to generate the points to rank in what has now become the Top 5 for QBs. He's had one season with enough passing yards (that one season in DEN), but his next best season was 3600+ yards passing.6) I see no reason to think that the top tier passing teams will be any less successful. Even if passing totals as a whole go backwards some, I don't see a scenario where the rest of the league falls way back while the Bears shoot way, way up.7) Many teams also have improved their chances of having better passing numbers and/or better fantasy scoring . . . it's not just the Bears that tried to improve.Overall, CHI might produce more through the air . . . but probably not enough for Cutler to have a real fantasy impact. Even if Cutler were to sneak into the bottom rungs as a QB1 in a 12 team league, that's leaving a lot of points to make up most weeks against the truly top fantasy QBs.I will add that I am not anti-Cutler. I have owned him ever year he's played and on multiple teams to boot. At best, IMO, he's a decent QB2 that might have some decent scoring weeks, but there are better options out there (and probably mandatory options if you want your team to do more than hold it's own or have bigger scoring weeks at QB).If I were to go fishing for a QB with a better shot at ranking in the Top 10 for a limited investment in a redraft league, I would look to target Carson Palmer, who is currently going 5-7 rounds later than Cutler is. If teams had the roster space, I also would look at pairing Sanchez and Tebow late, as whoever is starting for the Jets will also put up low end QB1 numbers (or close to it . . . and probably better than Cutler). The Jets really didn't address their ground game at all and will likely have to pass more (if Sanchez is starting). If they end up going with Tebow, we've already seen that he can put up QB1 numbers.

Alright, I am not sure if you are being intentionally disinegnous or not, as that is typically not your style, but a few points regarding your above "research":First off, you cite the Bears QB position last season - a season where 6 of the games were played by someone other than Cutler. Secondly, you site a season that saw the absence of Matt Forte for 5 games. Third you site a season where the Bears WR group looks considerably different than it does currently.For starters, if you take Cutler's 10 games last season and extrapolate them to a 16 game season, He would have had about 3700 passing yards with 21 TDs and 11 INTs - his numbers would have put him around QB14, just behind Big Ben. But again, we are extrapolating stats based on a starting WR group of Hester, Beenet and Knox - not Marshall, Jeffrey and Bennet. In regards to your point about Cutler and INTs - he was top 10 in QBs in INT% (yes, that's a % so it accounts for lower attempts) - and again, that is with less-than-stellar and undersized WRs running bad routes.Now, in fairness to your point, the original discussion was whether or not Cutler was a starter in a 12 teamer (not top 5, as benson changed it to). As already pointed out, had he not broken his thumb, he would have ended up in the QB14 area - with the anemic WR group he had to work with. QB14 is a few extra TDs and a couple hundred passing yards from QB1 territory - a difference Marshall and Jeffrey can clearly help make up...and then some.Yes, If Tebow ends up the starter for the Jets, he also has the possibility of putting up QB1 numbers - but Cutler is already the starter, so clearly, at this point in time Cutler is the "safer" of the two.

I never said Cutler couldn't be a borderline QB1. I was only addressing the likelihood he was going to be a Top 5 QB this year. But since you mentioned comparing apples to oranges (2010 vs 2011), I would expect the following to outproduce Cutler THIS YEAR (assuming full health for the QBs and the key personnel for all involved):RodgersBreesBradyNewtonStaffordManningManningVickRomoRiversRyanRoethlisbergerPalmerFreemanSchaubNYJ QB (if they pick only one, but the position itself I would project to be above Cutler on a ppg basis).IMO, Cutler is above as middle of the road as there is in terms of being an NFL starter . . . ranking almost exactly in the middle of the pack of starting QBs. Clearly we don't know how the rookies will do or if a new starter will make an impact (Flynn?), someone else returning from injury could sneak in there (Cassel?), or some others improve (Fitzpatrick?).Of the players on that above list (or possibly others) with the parameters I set (everyone stays healthy and plays 16 games including the QB, the OL, the key receivers, the RBs, etc.), which of those guys would you project to finish BEHIND Culter this season?The bottom line, for me anyway, is that (1) I personally would want those other guys more than Cutler, (2) he is probably best suited as a fantasy QB2 and likely will produce like one, and perhaps most importantly (3) people heading into the season with Cutler as their primary starting QB run the risk of getting beat up by teams with the uber elite QBs. I don't think people are fully aware how much of a scoring advantage having one of the top QBs was last year. We're talking the scoring difference between one of the top guys and a borderline QB1 was the equivalent of playing an extra player at another position for fantasy purposes.So unless teams are planning on being absolutely STACKED at other positions, rolling the dice on a QBBC or a borderline QB1 could make or break your season . . . whether it's Cutler or anyone else.

 

[smackdaddies]

I hate the bears, and I hate Cutler (yes, I have owned him in ff), however, for your consideration.....

1st, lets assume he plays the whole year. With that....

He gets to play GB, MN and Det a total of six times. That's six games against teams with terrible pass defense, and just shut up about how much they have improved in the draft. Those teams will still not be better than passable even with improvements.

Chicago improved their WR corpse significantly

Do I think he will be top 8....well, no. Could he have some huge games? Yes. Is it possible he is top 12 ... sure, although I would argue if you don't have an elite qb you are behind the eightball

 

[LawFitz]

Cutler makes for a fantastic QB2 in start two QB leagues. Otherwise, meh.

 

[mbuehner]

Upside, upside, upside. I agree that Cutler is likely to end up in the 10-15 QB range, which is really not startable in 1QB leagues (well, some poor fool will be starting them). But not many of the guys in that bucket have legit potential to bust into the top 10 and more than a pipe dream of going top 5. I mean- Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford and god forbid some guys are taking the rookies in redraft expecting more Newton magic in that bucket. Those are fine bye-week fill ins with basically zero likelihood of blowing up enough to be elite. Cutler has the physical tools and the weapons to be a top 5 QB- that means something. It doesnt mean you should bank on it, because he probably wont, but if he does that tiny investment will pay off a fortune... and my plan is always to shop for guys that will provide legit production even if they dont blow up, but with the potential to do so. You'd be surprised how that type of guy gets passed over for the glitzier boom/bust options.

 

[mr roboto]

Chicago is employing dead WRs?

 

[DoubleG]

I never said Cutler couldn't be a borderline QB1. I was only addressing the likelihood he was going to be a Top 5 QB this year. But since you mentioned comparing apples to oranges (2010 vs 2011), I would expect the following to outproduce Cutler THIS YEAR (assuming full health for the QBs and the key personnel for all involved):RodgersBreesBradyNewtonStaffordManningManningVickRomoRiversRyanRoethlisbergerPalmerFreemanSchaubNYJ QB (if they pick only one, but the position itself I would project to be above Cutler on a ppg basis).IMO, Cutler is above as middle of the road as there is in terms of being an NFL starter . . . ranking almost exactly in the middle of the pack of starting QBs. Clearly we don't know how the rookies will do or if a new starter will make an impact (Flynn?), someone else returning from injury could sneak in there (Cassel?), or some others improve (Fitzpatrick?).Of the players on that above list (or possibly others) with the parameters I set (everyone stays healthy and plays 16 games including the QB, the OL, the key receivers, the RBs, etc.), which of those guys would you project to finish BEHIND Culter this season?

First off, assuming that all the afore mentioned (and they're supporting casts) stay healthy is a huge assumption. Especially since one of them is a 36 year old recovering from multiple neck surgeries. But alright, if we want to go that route...IMHO, Cutler finishes ahead of Roeth and all the players you listed after him...easily. Rivers just lost his best WR. So that might be close. I happen to think Ryan takes another step up - so likely finishing top 8-10, so Cutler may be hard pressed to keep pace with his numbers. But he is still a virtual lock for 10-12 IMHO - with (as Mbeuhner has pointed out) - upside to go even higher. Significantly higher. None of the other QBs above him have gotten new weapons like he has this season - in fact many (Brees, Rivers, Romo, etc.) have lost supporting cast. And Josh Freeman is...well, Josh Freeman. I don't think he's all that talented quite frankly, so the addition of VJax will only help him somewhat.I agree with MBuehner - of all the QBs in this tier (the 8-15 range), Cutler has the best chance to drastically outperform his ADP given the upside of him and the tools at his disposal - especially in an offensive system that will be tailored to exploit his strengths, not expose his (and his O-line's) weaknesses.

 

[mbuehner]

Chicago is employing dead WRs?

They vote in our town, they might as well suit up.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

That butthole is going to be a steal this year.

 

[DoubleG]

Chicago is employing dead WRs?

Zombie's are slow...but tough to bring down without a shotgun.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Jay Cutler is currently regarded by most sites in the 12-16 range among QB's in redraft leagues. To me this is a tremendous value, and I will be targeting Cutler as my starter in re-draft leagues this year. Cutler played pretty damn well last year when he was healthy, and the additions I will outline below give him legitimate top 5 QB potential this year. At worst I think he will be in the 8-10 range among QB's. Here is my reasoning:1. The addition of Brandon Marshall- Brandon Marshall is the perfect receiver for Jay Cutler, and the two already have an incredible rapport. Cutler loves to squeeze the ball into tight windows and into high traffic areas. Marshall is an absolute beast with the size, athleticism, and mentality to make tough contested catches. Marshall was a safety net for Cutler in Denver. I remember in that infamous Ed Hochuli game against the Chargers, Marshall had something like 18 or 19 catches. Marshall can turn routine underneath routes into huge yardage gains after the catch. His presence will be huge for Cutler, and as long as Marshall plays 16 games 100 catches should be no big thing for him. In the two seasons Cutler started in Denver, Marshall had 102 catches and 104 catches.2. The addition of Alshon Jeffery- Jeffery is a very similar player to Marshall, and gives Cutler another target that he can trust to make those classic "F you" Jay Cutler throws.3. The addition of Jeremy Bates- This is the most important addition of all. Cutler was very close to Bates during his time as QB coach in Denver. Bates not being allowed to call plays when McDaniels took over was a big reason why Cutler wanted out of Denver. Bates called the plays in Denver for the 2008 season. This was Cutler's third season, and his coming out party in the NFL. Here is Cutler's stat line for that season. 384/616, 62.3 Comp %, 4,526 yards, 25 TD, 18 INT, 57 RUSH, 205 yards rushing, 2 rushing TDBates knows how to use Cutler (and Marshall for that matter) and already stated that he plans to make use of Cutler's athleticism by getting him outside the pocket a lot more. Cutler is a great passer when on the run, and has some deceptive speed and athleticism as a runner. I believe Mike Tice will be calling the plays for the Bears, but Bates presence in Chicago will be as important if not more important to Cutler's success in my opinion. Cutler swears by Bates, and I believe Cutler is poised for a career year after reuniting with both Bates and Marshall.

Agree 100%, great post.

 

[orangecrush15]

Bump

 

[Jercules]

Cutler may do better than people expect, but I don't see him hoisting the ball up 616 times like he did in Denver in 2008. The Bears defense is better than the Broncos was and they should also have a very good running game between Forte and Bush. Chicago only passed the ball 473 times last year and 466 the year before. They probably would have passed more had Cutler not gotten hurt . . . but not 140 times more.

Even if Cutler repeated his numbers from 2008 (347 fantasy points) when he ranked as QB5, that same total would no longer be a Top 5 QB (would have ranked as QB9 last year). Given that I don't think he will throw the ball as much (and may not do as well totals wise as 2008), I have a hard time seeing Cutler being a fantasy QB1 in 12 team fantasy leagues.

Cutler could be a good QB to pick up in the middle rounds, but if you have to start him you'd better be stacked at other positions to compete against teams with the uber scoring QBs.

One question with regard to the bolded (with some background) Last year's QB numbers were fairly outrageous at the top. As an example, on one dynasty league I am in, the top 5 QBs all scored 400+ fantasy points. In the history of that league QBs had only scored 400+ twice...in the previous 7 years...combined - the year Manning threw 48 TDs and the year Brady threw 50. That's it. If you took Brees's 2008 season (the year you're citing for Cutler) - who lead FF and the NFL with 5K+ passing yards and 34 TDs would have been QB6. In fact, if you take Rodgers' performance in 2010 (he was the leading FF scorer in that scoring format) - he qould have been QB7 in 2011.

While I fully undertand that times, they are a changin' - I don't think they're changing that much or that quickly (that the QB1 one season would be the QB7 the next). My point is simply this - last year's QB numbers are quite possibly a little bit of an outlier (at least at the top). While I think we WILL see multiple QBs throw for 5k yards, the fact is that some of those will be the Jay Cutler's and Tony Romo's, as there are only so many Brees' and Mannings' and they are getting older.

The question: Do you think the top 5 QBs is 2012 will have stats similar to the top 5 in 2011? If so why? (when history suggest a return closer to the mean)

Great question. With the rules becoming more and more pro-pass, you could argue that last year was not an outlier.On the other hand, I've heard it said that the lack of a full training camp hurt defenses more than offenses, and gave a huge advantage to the established offenses like GB or NO that could go out tomorrow and function with almost no practice. That would be a reason to expect a regression to the mean.

I'm completely torn. What's interesting is, mock drafts so far look much the same as they always have; a group of RBs at the top, Rodgers the sole 1st round QB, and so on. If these outrageous passing numbers are here to stay, QBs are being seriously undervalued heading into 2012.

 

[Sabertooth]

Cutler may do better than people expect, but I don't see him hoisting the ball up 616 times like he did in Denver in 2008. The Bears defense is better than the Broncos was and they should also have a very good running game between Forte and Bush. Chicago only passed the ball 473 times last year and 466 the year before. They probably would have passed more had Cutler not gotten hurt . . . but not 140 times more.Even if Cutler repeated his numbers from 2008 (347 fantasy points) when he ranked as QB5, that same total would no longer be a Top 5 QB (would have ranked as QB9 last year). Given that I don't think he will throw the ball as much (and may not do as well totals wise as 2008), I have a hard time seeing Cutler being a fantasy QB1 in 12 team fantasy leagues.Cutler could be a good QB to pick up in the middle rounds, but if you have to start him you'd better be stacked at other positions to compete against teams with the uber scoring QBs.

You don't think him adding actual wide receivers like Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery is going to help much? I think he throws 30-37 touchdowns this season based simply on Marshall's ability to convert first downs and extend drives. Plus he gets to play against terrible secondaries in Green Bay and Detroit.

 

[Sabertooth]

Chicago was a run first offense BEFORE they acquired Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, 4th round pick TE Evan Rodriguez, etc. You don't add that talent to have them block.

 

[David Yudkin]

Cutler may do better than people expect, but I don't see him hoisting the ball up 616 times like he did in Denver in 2008. The Bears defense is better than the Broncos was and they should also have a very good running game between Forte and Bush. Chicago only passed the ball 473 times last year and 466 the year before. They probably would have passed more had Cutler not gotten hurt . . . but not 140 times more.Even if Cutler repeated his numbers from 2008 (347 fantasy points) when he ranked as QB5, that same total would no longer be a Top 5 QB (would have ranked as QB9 last year). Given that I don't think he will throw the ball as much (and may not do as well totals wise as 2008), I have a hard time seeing Cutler being a fantasy QB1 in 12 team fantasy leagues.Cutler could be a good QB to pick up in the middle rounds, but if you have to start him you'd better be stacked at other positions to compete against teams with the uber scoring QBs.

You don't think him adding actual wide receivers like Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery is going to help much? I think he throws 30-37 touchdowns this season based simply on Marshall's ability to convert first downs and extend drives. Plus he gets to play against terrible secondaries in Green Bay and Detroit.

Over his career, Cutler has averaged 7.3 YPA . . . which was also what he averaged in his one huge season. He's played with Marshall before . . . and maxed out at 27 TD.While not a great comparison, Marshall played the last few years in Miami. I realize that the Dolphins QBs have not been stellar, but last year the Dolphins averaged 7.3 YPA (the same as Cutler's career average). Miami only put up 3425-20 including 5 games against bottom 5 pass defenses with 2 games against the lowly Patriots.IMO, Cutler's value will lie on how many times he throws the ball. If he again flings it 600+ times, he will be very fantasy relevant (as would ANY QB that throws that often). Other than Marshall, I am not willing to say that suddenly the other receviers are world class and will instantly be difference makers.Cutler doesn't rank particularly high in terms of peripheral numbers. Among active QBs, he ranks 30th in INT%, 21st in sack%, 15th in AYPA, and 16th in passer rating. Maybe Cutler will break through and perform at another level. But after 6 years in the league, he had one big year with inflated totals by throwing so often and other than that he's been pretty average. Yes, I understand that people will say his receivers weren't very good. Time will tell if that was indeed the case or if there were other factors at play.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Here is a breakdown of team fantasy points scored by QBs in 2011:

GBP 503.2NOS 459.6NEP 435.5CAR 426.9DET 409.3DAL 355.9NYG 353PHI 349.7ATL 341.1SDC 328.8NYJ 307.4DEN 305.2TEN 296.5PIT 290.1TBB 290MIN 287.9OAK 287BUF 286.5ARI 279MIA 275.4HOU 274.5WAS 271.7CIN 266.7BAL 263.6SFO 252CHI 247.6CLE 246.1SEA 233.8KCC 207.7STL 202.6IND 186.5JAX 170.6You have to wait until the NYJ at #11 on the list until you find a team without truly special talents at WR/TE to support the QB. Most of those top 10 teams have 2+ pieces that are special talents. So is it the QB or the talents around them?Here are the teams that had special talents that didn't have good QB FF seasons:

KCC 207.7- Dwayne Bowe, but Matt Cassel missing a large portion of the season obviously hurt.

SF 252- Vernon Davis, but Alex Smith isn't a great QB(we all can agree)

CIN 266.7- AJ Green, Dalton was a rookie so not fair to them.

HOU 274.2- AJ was hurt for most of the season and then Schuab went down.

MIA 275.4- Marshall, but Henne/Moore aren't very good.

ARI- 279- Fitz, Kolb/Skelton aren't good either.

MIN- Harvin, played with McNugget and rookie QB.

As you can see teams with a WR1 either have injuries/rookie QB/poor QB. Cutler is better than all of the QBs on that list. Which would make me think that by adding Marshall, Cutler would jump past these teams easily.

If Cutler doesn't miss 1/3 of the season, I can see Chicago in the 290's last season which is borderline QB1/high end QB2.

Combining those two are they really a long shot to get into the 330/340/350's?



I realize every season is different, but the Bears were pretty near the bottom last year and WAY far from the top. They mave have added some better pieces to the passing game . . . but they still didn't address the OL. 1st round pick Gabe Carimi missed almost all of his rookie season, he will provide a huge boost at RT. Chilo Rachel was brought in to start at Guard, he ranked in the top half of the league in 2010 for Guards. Chris Williams will compete with JaMarcus Webb at LT...hopefully competition/development will improve LT. All of that plus a change in philosophy will improve the OL.

As far as the team goes, no I do not think the Bears coaching philosophy will produce a Top 5 passing game for a number of reasons:

1) They won't pass enough.How many attempts do they need to get to? Legit question, not being a #####.

2) They still will rely more on the run and play solid defense.Bringing in Michael Bush would give that indication...but also insurance for holdout and Forte has had two knee injuries.

3) Based on that, they peobably won't risk Cutler turning the ball over if they are ahead. (As mentioned by others, Cutler does have a history of throwing lots of picks.)He does throw picks, I expect that to improve with WRs that actually go and get the ball.

4) CHI has struggled recently to keep Cutler upright. A banged up Cutler probably would have little shot of ranking in the Top 10.See OL post above...they won't be a top 10 OL...but they won't be worst in the league.

5) Cutler has not shown the ability to throw enough TD to generate the points to rank in what has now become the Top 5 for QBs. He's had one season with enough passing yards (that one season in DEN), but his next best season was 3600+ yards passing.These numbers are based on having poor targets around him.

6) I see no reason to think that the top tier passing teams will be any less successful. Even if passing totals as a whole go backwards some, I don't see a scenario where the rest of the league falls way back while the Bears shoot way, way up.I agree that they should all be somewhat close to last year...barring injury.

7) Many teams also have improved their chances of having better passing numbers and/or better fantasy scoring . . . it's not just the Bears that tried to improve.No team in the league added a #1 WR and a WR with the potential of Jeffery.

I will add that I am not anti-Cutler. I know, I enjoy a good debate.

Thought i'd get a response from this. Again I enjoy debates.

 

[David Yudkin]

Since apparently you wanted more specifics . . .

Here are the teams that had special talents that didn't have good QB FF seasons:

KCC 207.7- Dwayne Bowe, but Matt Cassel missing a large portion of the season obviously hurt.

SF 252- Vernon Davis, but Alex Smith isn't a great QB(we all can agree)

CIN 266.7- AJ Green, Dalton was a rookie so not fair to them.

HOU 274.2- AJ was hurt for most of the season and then Schuab went down.

MIA 275.4- Marshall, but Henne/Moore aren't very good.

ARI- 279- Fitz, Kolb/Skelton aren't good either.

MIN- Harvin, played with McNugget and rookie QB.

As you can see teams with a WR1 either have injuries/rookie QB/poor QB. Cutler is better than all of the QBs on that list. Which would make me think that by adding Marshall, Cutler would jump past these teams easily.

If Cutler doesn't miss 1/3 of the season, I can see Chicago in the 290's last season which is borderline QB1/high end QB2.

MAYBE I AM BEING OVERLY HARSH, BUT I DON'T AT THIS POINT THINK THE BEARS HAVE TWO SPECIAL TALENTS AT RECEIVER OR A SPECIAL QUARTERBACK. I WOULD SAY MARSHALL IS AN EXCELLENT PLAYER AT TIMES, BUT OVERALL HE IS NOT A TRUE FANTASY ELITE IN REGULAR SCORING LEAGUES (IE 0 PPR). I CONSIDER HIM A BORDERLINE FANTASY 1 AND A GOOD FANTASY 2. OF QB'S THAT PLAYED IN AT LEAST 8 GAMES LAST YEAR, CUTLER RANKED 18TH IN FANTASY PPG. IMO, ENDING LAST SEASON AS A BORDERLINE FANTASY QB1 WAS A BIT OF A STRETCH.
1 Aaron Rodgers 29.992 Drew Brees 28.653 Tom Brady 27.174 Cam Newton 26.685 Matt Stafford 25.486 Michael Vick 22.167 Eli Manning 22.068 Tony Romo 20.869 Matt Ryan 20.8310 Philip Rivers 20.5511 Mark Sanchez 19.1312 Matt Schaub 19.0913 Roethlisberger 18.7214 Carson Palmer 18.1615 Josh Freeman 17.9316 R Fitzpatrick 17.8417 John Skelton 17.3118 Jay Cutler 17.2619 Joe Flacco 16.4120 Tim Tebow 16.3921 Andy Dalton 16.1322 Alex Smith 15.6523 Colt McCoy 15.5824 Matt Moore 15.3625 Matt Hasselbeck 15.1126 Rex Grossman 14.8927 Kevin Kolb 14.6928 T Jackson 14.3029 Matt Cassel 14.0230 Chris Ponder 13.9631 Sam Bradford 12.8832 Curtis Painter 11.4233 Blaine Gabbert 10.5034 Dan Orlovsky 10.0735 Joe Webb 06.3436 Josh Johnson 02.3337 Mark Brunell 00.0838 Chase Daniel 00.07CUTLER WOULD HAVE NEEDED TO PERFROM ABOUT 20% BETTER TO RANK AS A BORDERLINE QB1 LAST YEAR (IN ADDITION TO PLAYING ALL 16 GAMES). LET'S GIVE HIM (AND YOU) THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT AND SAY HE DOES DO THAT WELL THIS YEAR AND DOES DO 20% BETTER. IMO, HE STILL AT BEST IS A BELOW AVERAGE FANTASY OPTION, AS THE OTHER TRULY ELITE QB'S WILL STILL FAR OUTPRODUCR HIM. HE COULD VERY WELL SCORE 5-10 POINTS PER GAME LESS THAN THE OTHER TOP QB'S. THIS IS NOT AN IDICTMENT AGAINST CUTLER, IT IS MORE OF MY CONCERN IN NOT GETTING TOP POINT PRODUCTION OUT OF THE QB SPOT. I AM NOT SURE PEOPLE FULLY REALIZE HOW MUCH A DIFFERENCE THERE IS THESE DAYS AT QUARTERBACK FOR FANTASY PURPOSES.

Combining those two are they really a long shot to get into the 330/340/350's?

I DON'T PERSONALLY THINK CUTLER HAS A GREAT CHANCE TO GET IN THAT RANGE FOR ALL THE REASONS I HAVE ALREADY OUTLINED IN THIS THREAD. EXTRAPOLATING CUTLER'S NUMBERS ACROSS 16 GAMES LAST YEAR HE WOULD HAVE SCORED 276 FANTASY POINTS. THAT TO ME WON'T CUT IT FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. GIVING HIM A FULL 16 GAMES AND AN EXTRA 20% THIS YEAR WOULD GET HIM TO 331 POINTS. YES, EACH SEASON IS DIFFERENT, BUT THAT WOULD HAVE RANKED HIM AS QB10 IN 2011 . . . AND THAT'S GIVING HIM A 20% MARKUP IN PRODUCTION AND PLAYING A FULL 16 GAME SCHEDULE (WHICH TO ME BOTH OF THOSE ARE FAR FROM A CERTAINTY THIS YEAR).TO REITERATE . . . I DON'T THINK HE WILL HAVE ENOUGH PASS PROTECTION, HE WILL GET SACKED AND PICKED OFF TOO MUCH, HE WON'T HAVE THE SAME NUMBER OF ATTEMPTS AS HE DID IN 2008, THE REST OF THE LEAGUE'S TOP QB'S ARE BETTER AND WILL OUTSCORE HIM, THE TEAM HAS A DECENT RUNNING GAME AND DEFENSE AND WILL RUN TOO MUCH, I DON'T THINK THE RECEIVING CORPS CURRENTLY IS AS GOOD AS YOU THINK IT IS AND IS STILL AT THE MOMENT UNPROVEN, IT'S NOT A MARTZ MAD SCIENTIST SCHEME, AND I DON'T THINK CUTLER IS ANYTHING MORE THAN AN AVERAGE QB. THAT'S MY OPINION . . . WHICH DOES MAKE ME RIGHT OR YOU WRONG.

1) They won't pass enough.How many attempts do they need to get to? Legit question, not being a #####.

CLOSER TO 600 THAN 500, AND I WOULD PROJECT THEM A LOT CLOSER TO 500 THAN 600. I WOULD SAY IF THE DEFENSE IS WORSE THAN I EXPECT AND THEY ARE CONSTANTLY PLAYING FROM BEHIND I THINK THAT NUMBER WILL RISE, BUT I GIVE THE DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS CREDIT FOR BEING SOLID.

2) They still will rely more on the run and play solid defense.Bringing in Michael Bush would give that indication...but also insurance for holdout and Forte has had two knee injuries.

IF THE DEFENSE IS STRONG, THEY NOW SHOULD HAVE TWO BACKS THAT CAN MOVE THE BALL . . . WHICH TO ME MEANS THEY WILL PLAY GROUND AND POUND MORE THAN AIR IT OUT. I MAY BE READING THAT WRONG, BUT THAT'S HOW I SEE IT.

3) Based on that, they peobably won't risk Cutler turning the ball over if they are ahead. (As mentioned by others, Cutler does have a history of throwing lots of picks.)He does throw picks, I expect that to improve with WRs that actually go and get the ball.

HOW DO WE REALLY KNOW WHAT THE RECEIVERS WILL DO? CUTLER HAS THROWN LOTS OF PICKS AND DID SO WITH MARSHALL BEFORE. ARE A COUPLE OF ROOKIES GOING TO SUDDENLY CHANGE HOW CUTLER THROWS THE BALL, THE PASS RUSH HE WILL FACE, OR THE POOR DECISIONS HE HAS BEEN KNOWN TO MAKE? WE KNOW HOW HE'S DONE WITH THE PLAYERS ALREADY ON THE ROSTER . . . I DON'T THINK THE NEW ADDITIONS WILL CHANGE HOW OFTEN CUTLER WILL GET PICKED AND PROBABLY NOT HOW WELL THE RETURNING PLAYERS WILL PERFORM. I AM NOT SURE THERE IS ANY WAY TO PROVE OR DISPROVE EITHER SIDE OF THIS POINT. IN REALITY, WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT WILL HAPPEN FROM AN INTERCEPTION STANDPOINT.

4) CHI has struggled recently to keep Cutler upright. A banged up Cutler probably would have little shot of ranking in the Top 10.See OL post above...they won't be a top 10 OL...but they won't be worst in the league.

PEOPLE HAVE INDICATED THAT CUTLER WILL CARVE UP THE PACKERS AND LIONS. IN THE PAST TWO YEARS, CUTLER HAS NOT PLAYED GREAT AGAINST EITHER OF THEM AND DID NOT PUT UP GREAT FANTASY NUMBERS IN THOSE GAMES. DECENT BUT NOT GREAT. IIRC, LAST YEAR AGAINST DETROIT HE LOOKED LIKE HE WAS RUNNING FOR HIS LIFE. THE FEW TIMES I SAW HIM PLAY BEFORE HE GOT HURT HE WAS LUCKY TO GET THE BALL OUT AT ALL LET ALONE COMPLETE IT.

5) Cutler has not shown the ability to throw enough TD to generate the points to rank in what has now become the Top 5 for QBs. He's had one season with enough passing yards (that one season in DEN), but his next best season was 3600+ yards passing.These numbers are based on having poor targets around him.

I STILL SAY 5 SEASONS TRUMPS 1 GOOD ONE. MARSHALL IS AN UPGRADE, BUT ANY OTHER PERSONNEL CHANGES HINGE ON HOPE OF SOMETHING BETTER. MOST ROOKIES EITHER DON'T PAN OUT OR DO NOT OVERWHELM AS ROOKIE. IMO, THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY THAT THE ROOKIES DO VERY LITTLE THAN DO A LOT TO HELP THE PASSING GAME THIS YEAR. FUTURE RESULTS MAY BE DIFFERENT, BUT FOR NOW I WOULD BE A LITTLE SURPISED IF THE BEARS WR CORPS DID LEAPS AND BOUNDS BETTER THIS YEAR.

6) I see no reason to think that the top tier passing teams will be any less successful. Even if passing totals as a whole go backwards some, I don't see a scenario where the rest of the league falls way back while the Bears shoot way, way up.I agree that they should all be somewhat close to last year...barring injury.

IMO, SEVERAL TEAMS AHEAD OF THE BEARS IN TERMS OF PASSING SHOULD DO BETTER, ADDED PIECES, OR HAVE GUYS COMING BACK FROM INJURY. FOR EXAMPLE, THE PATS ADDED LLOYD AND DEPTH TO THEIR RECEIVING CORPS. THE EAGLES SHOULD HAVE A HEALTHY VICK BACK. THE BRONCOS ADDED MANNING. THE BUCS ADDED JACKSON. THE CHIEFS ARE GETTING CASSEL BACK. THE POINT BEING, OTHER TEAMS ALSO MAY HAVE GOTTEN BETTER OR WERE WAY AHEAD ON THE PASSING FOOD CHAIN THAN CHICAGO, ONLY ADDING FUEL TO THE BEARS WON'T BE RADICALLY BETTER COMPARED TO OTHER TEAMS DEBATE.

7) Many teams also have improved their chances of having better passing numbers and/or better fantasy scoring . . . it's not just the Bears that tried to improve.No team in the league added a #1 WR and a WR with the potential of Jeffery.

AGAIN, ROOKIE RECEIVERS HAVE MORE OF A TRACK RECORD OF DOING LITTLE OUT OF THE GATE THAN MAKING A MAJOR IMPACT. OF WR'S DRAFTED IN THE SECOND ROUND SINCE 1990, 12 OF 91 WENT ON TO MAKE A PRO BOWL. MAYBE JEFFERY FALLS IN THE GROUP OF PRO BOWLERS AND PRODUCERS AS OPPOSED TO 2ND ROUND DISAPPOINTMENTS. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

CERTAINLY ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN AND MAYBE THE BEARS WILL MAKE GREAT STRIDES INT HE PASSING GAME AND MAYBE CUTLER WILL IMPROVE AS A QB. BUT FROM WHERE I SIT, ALL I SEE IS A GUY THAT HAS PRETTY MUCH PERFROMED THE SAME EACH YEAR AND THE ONE GREAT YEAR HE HAD HE DID SO BASED ON VOLUME NOT BECAUSE HE PLAYED DRAMATICALLY BETTER. HIS COMPLETION % HAS GOTTEN WORSE. HIS PASSING YARDAGE TOTALS HAVE GONE BACKWARDS. HIS YPA HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME. MAYBE THE ONLY THING HOLDING HIM BACK HAS BEEN HIS RECEIVERS . . . BUT HIS PERIPHERAL NUMBERS IN CHICAGO HAVE BEEN THE SAME AS THEY WERE WHEN HE PLAYED WITH MARSHALL IN DENVER. BOTTOM LINE, TO ME, WE WON'T SEE A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN CUTLER THIS YEAR.

I PROBABLY WILL END UP DRAFTING CUTLER AS A BACKUP AGAIN IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT, BUT I REALLY WOULDN'T WANT TO PIN MY HOPES ON HIM AS A FANTASY STARTER.

 

[mbuehner]

He was also playing last year in an antiquated offense unsuited to the Bears terrible pass blocking and throwing to guys that wouldn't start on most NFL teams. I don't think you can make such dramatic changes and just just toss an arbitrary 20% improvement at Cutler because it sounds like a reasonable number. If the Bears can run the ball, that opens up playaction. If they run playaction they will have tight ends in patterns like a modern NFL offense does. They will have professional wide receivers running patterns. Those are revolutionary, not evolutionary changes to this offense. I don't think its appropriate to apply an arbitrary percentage to how much improved Cutler's numbers get as you would if a team, say, upgraded at WR2 or got a better pass catching RB. Obviously its entirely appropriate if you crunch all that and your projections happen to be +20% (or whatever), but I don't think you can just assume they get a little better and that sounds like a round number. A hockey team playing with 4 players doesn't get 20% better when the 5th hits the ice, they get much much better. The same possibility applies here (whether you believe it likely or not), it should not be shocking if this offense throws 30+ TDs this season given all its improvements... and yes that would be a career year for Cutler and yes guys do have career years, particularly after all the lunacy Cutler has been involved in over his career. How would you NOT expect Cutler and Marshall to have improved since they first couple years in the league. Significantly even.

That being said... o-line.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

That being said... o-line.

thisi remember Cutler coming out of vandy, he was really tough. I think the dude put up 225 bench press about 20 reps maybe more. He is a sturdy guy. But he's getting injured as the QB of the Bears cause that OL sucks. Make no mistake they are among the league's worst units. A bottom 5 OL.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

-Alshon Jeffery maybe he will succeed, maybe he won't. He is 2nd all time in SEC receiving yards...that means something to me. He played well against the best competition(Kirkpatrick/Jenkins/Arenas/Barron/etc).

I will preface my remarks by saying I don't know enough about Jaffrey to really comment and haven't seen him play much. Maybe he is an elite talent and will prove to be a game changer.But I looked up a recent article that listed the Top 15 receivers in SEC history. Here was the list:

15 Dwayne Bowe LSU

14 Ike Hilliard Florida

13 Sidney Rice South Carolina

12 Michael Clayton LSU

11 Dan Sticker Vanderbilt

10 Julio Jones Alabama

9 Terrence Edwards Georgia

8 Robert Meachem Tennessee

7 Kenny McKinley South Carolina

6 Jabar Gaffney Florida

5 A.J. Green Georgia

4 Earl Bennett Vanderbilt

3 D.J. Hall Alabama

2 Craig Yeast Kentucky

1 Josh Reed LSU

That list is a bit all over the map. The jury is still out on a bunch of them, but several have been pretty average pros (or never really made it). And the Bears already have the #4 guy on the list, who has mostly been a disappointment. I do find it interesting that Jaffrey is not on the list (not that one list is the end all of end all).

I did not type this comment. The quote is mine, from the original response to David...but the rest isn't. Did I get hacked?

 

[David Yudkin]

-Alshon Jeffery maybe he will succeed, maybe he won't. He is 2nd all time in SEC receiving yards...that means something to me. He played well against the best competition(Kirkpatrick/Jenkins/Arenas/Barron/etc).

I will preface my remarks by saying I don't know enough about Jaffrey to really comment and haven't seen him play much. Maybe he is an elite talent and will prove to be a game changer.But I looked up a recent article that listed the Top 15 receivers in SEC history. Here was the list:

15 Dwayne Bowe LSU

14 Ike Hilliard Florida

13 Sidney Rice South Carolina

12 Michael Clayton LSU

11 Dan Sticker Vanderbilt

10 Julio Jones Alabama

9 Terrence Edwards Georgia

8 Robert Meachem Tennessee

7 Kenny McKinley South Carolina

6 Jabar Gaffney Florida

5 A.J. Green Georgia

4 Earl Bennett Vanderbilt

3 D.J. Hall Alabama

2 Craig Yeast Kentucky

1 Josh Reed LSU

That list is a bit all over the map. The jury is still out on a bunch of them, but several have been pretty average pros (or never really made it). And the Bears already have the #4 guy on the list, who has mostly been a disappointment. I do find it interesting that Jaffrey is not on the list (not that one list is the end all of end all).

I did not type this comment. The quote is mine, from the original response to David...but the rest isn't. Did I get hacked?

I wrote that. I must have hit edit instead of reply.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

-Alshon Jeffery maybe he will succeed, maybe he won't. He is 2nd all time in SEC receiving yards...that means something to me. He played well against the best competition(Kirkpatrick/Jenkins/Arenas/Barron/etc).

I will preface my remarks by saying I don't know enough about Jaffrey to really comment and haven't seen him play much. Maybe he is an elite talent and will prove to be a game changer.But I looked up a recent article that listed the Top 15 receivers in SEC history. Here was the list:

15 Dwayne Bowe LSU

14 Ike Hilliard Florida

13 Sidney Rice South Carolina

12 Michael Clayton LSU

11 Dan Sticker Vanderbilt

10 Julio Jones Alabama

9 Terrence Edwards Georgia

8 Robert Meachem Tennessee

7 Kenny McKinley South Carolina

6 Jabar Gaffney Florida

5 A.J. Green Georgia

4 Earl Bennett Vanderbilt

3 D.J. Hall Alabama

2 Craig Yeast Kentucky

1 Josh Reed LSU

That list is a bit all over the map. The jury is still out on a bunch of them, but several have been pretty average pros (or never really made it). And the Bears already have the #4 guy on the list, who has mostly been a disappointment. I do find it interesting that Jaffrey is not on the list (not that one list is the end all of end all).

I did not type this comment. The quote is mine, from the original response to David...but the rest isn't. Did I get hacked?

I wrote that. I must have hit edit instead of reply.

Ugh, it happens.Quick sparknotes version:

-We disagree on the improvement of Bears WRs from 2011 to 2012 and beyond.

-Knox and Hester aren't aggressive in route running or going after the football which leads to lots of INT/drop passes...aka makes Jay Cutler look bad. Exhibit a:

-Marshall and Jeffery are aggressive so those types of plays won't happen moving forward. They will also open up passing windows that wouldn't have worked for Knox/Hester.

-Perhaps Bears fans are overly excited about the acquisitions due to our last 1,000 yard WR being in 2002 Marty Booker

 

[lbouchard]

Agreeing with some others, I think Cutler has a ceiling of QB10-12, and he probably doesn't get there. Here are the guys I definitely have above him:

1. Rodgers

2. Brady

3. Brees

4. Newton

5. Stafford

6. Rivers

7. Eli Manning

8. Romo

9. Ryan

10. Peyton Manning(could move up or down depending on health)

11. Vick (accounting for the games he will miss)

12. Roethlisberger

13. Here's where Cutler fits, IMO. So not even a QB1.