Records for Teams the Week After Scoring 40 points in the Playoffs Since 2000 (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

After the Bills throttled the Pats last night (and America rejoiced), I was curious how teams that scored 40 points in a playoff game fared after that. I found that there were 26 such games since the 2000 season:

- It's happened 8 times in wild card games. Those teams went on to go 1-7 in the divisional round. The one team that won lost in the conference championship.
- It's happened 12 times in the divisional round. Seven of the 12 winners advanced to the conference championship, Oddly enough, all 7 of them won those games as well to advance to the SB. Those teams went 5-2 in the Super Bowl.
- It's happened 6 times in conference championships, and those teams went 2-4 in the Super Bowl.
- Overall, teams went 10-16 the following game (9-9 for games in the divisional round or later)
- For teams that scored 40+ in the wild card or divisional rounds, if they did win the following game, 7 of the 8 teams went to the SB.
- The last team to hang 40 in a wild card game and win the SB was the 1997 Broncos.

The Bills will face their version of the irresistible force (if they win, 7 out of 8 times that team won again) vs. the immovable object (wild card winners are 1-7 the following week). If recent history holds, the Bills will either lose next week - OR - they will win next week AND get to the SB as well.
 

 

[-OZ-]

. If recent history holds, the Bills will either lose next week - OR - they will win next week AND get to the SB as well.
 

Interesting stuff. 
I’m sticking with “neither”. 
beat the chiefs and lose to Tennessee. 

 

[GroveDiesel]

I wonder if the opponent’s score in those games has any correlation to future success? In other words, did some teams have higher scores because they had a lousy defense and were involved in a shootout and their lousy defense caught up to them the next week?

It wouldn’t surprise me if margin of victory has some predictive effect since a larger margin of victory would indicate a more complete team. Though 26 games isn’t a huge sample size so who knows.

 

[Anarchy99]

I wonder if the opponent’s score in those games has any correlation to future success? In other words, did some teams have higher scores because they had a lousy defense and were involved in a shootout and their lousy defense caught up to them the next week?

It wouldn’t surprise me if margin of victory has some predictive effect since a larger margin of victory would indicate a more complete team. Though 26 games isn’t a huge sample size so who knows.

Teams with a margin of victory of 30 points or more went 4-4 the next game. Teams that won by 10 or fewer points were 0-4.