recovering from a reach (1 Viewer)

[NYCGangGreen]

Last year I bought into the Wali Lundy hype and reached for him faster than a Stretch Armstrong.

So I guess 2 questions.....

1. What players have you been hurt by in the forum hypes?

2. Does Lundy hold any value this year as a late round flyer with the possibilty of an Ahman injury??

Edited to prevent responses from middle aged men with nothing better to do but gripe!

 

[j3r3m3y]

Last year I bought into the Wali Lundy hype and drank the KoolAid faster than a member at a Jim Jones spa.So I guess 2 questions.....1. What players have you been hurt by in the Kool Aid pool?2. Does Lundy hold any value this year as a late round flyer with the possibilty of an Ahman injury??

I really wish someone would put a bullet in the "drank the koolaid" cliche`.

 

[freshly_shorn]

Last year I bought into the Wali Lundy hype and drank the KoolAid faster than a member at a Jim Jones spa.So I guess 2 questions.....1. What players have you been hurt by in the Kool Aid pool?2. Does Lundy hold any value this year as a late round flyer with the possibilty of an Ahman injury??

I really wish someone would put a bullet in the "drank the koolaid" cliche`.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

Last year I bought into the Wali Lundy hype and drank the KoolAid faster than a member at a Jim Jones spa.So I guess 2 questions.....1. What players have you been hurt by in the Kool Aid pool?2. Does Lundy hold any value this year as a late round flyer with the possibilty of an Ahman injury??

I really wish someone would put a bullet in the "drank the koolaid" cliche`.

Wow, so glad that the "sharks" give such great insight....How about just actually responding to guys that you have reached on due to a lot of hype and did not have it work out for you??? Or is that now a "Shark" move??Signed,Nemo!

 

[Keys Myaths]

This thread makes baby Jesus cry.

 

[Blackstar]

I drank the Keary Colbert Kool Aid a couple of years ago.

 

[Blackstar]

And people whining about KoolAid talk, usually just took Addai @3

 

[massraider]

I took a last round sip of the David Boston Kool-Aid, it was spiked with GHB, is my guess.

But I'll wait for the toxicology report to come back.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

The captain of the Kool Aid All-Stars....

Kevan Barlow, 2004

 

[gadkins]

I'm all over the Drew Bress Kook-Aid this year.

 

[Blackstar]

never had either but Ronnie Brown and Caddilac were big ones last year.

 

[KoolKat]

Been drinking the Matt Jones Kool-Aid for a couple years now. Took him over Braylon in a Dynasty league rookie draft when he came out..ouch.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

I took a last round sip of the David Boston Kool-Aid, it was spiked with GHB, is my guess.But I'll wait for the toxicology report to come back.

From alla ccounts, the Bucs' have cleared him of anything at this time, so unless the tox. reports come back with some high levels of something he should still be safe.But FWIW - I stay away from Boston unless its a waiver claim....always too risky since his days in SD.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Wow, so glad that the "sharks" give such great insight....How about just actually responding to guys that you have reached on due to a lot of hype and did not have it work out for you??? Or is that now a "Shark" move??Signed,Nemo!

A) I never called myself a shark, I never will.B) The cliche' was so over used last year, I am hoping to avoid seeing it this year. Lets make "drink the koolaid" the new "step up".C) You also failed to respond to his question. D) in response to the OP1. It is too early to tell who hurt us this year.2. Every player has some value. As a late round flier, he is as good as anyone else.

 

[Woz]

The one I could see would be Travis Henry in the early second. But I honestly think the pool has been right.

I suppose the one "reach" I made was James Jones in the 14th with guys like Bobby Wade and Northcutt available.

 

[redaddy25]

In recent years... The 2005 Arrington Cherry flavored as well as the 2004 Barlow Grape flavored. Luckily I took Gatorade to the draft last year, hopefully the same will be true again this year.

 

[FFDumb]

I drank the Matt Jones koolaid after watching the hyped Youtube video of his college career last year.

 

[GoBears84]

The captain of the Kool Aid All-Stars....Kevan Barlow, 2004

 

[thecardiackid]

I suppose the one "reach" I made was James Jones in the 14th with guys like Bobby Wade and Northcutt available.

did the same thing in R17/18Got burned by Caddy last year.

 

[GroveDiesel]

The one I could see would be Travis Henry in the early second. But I honestly think the pool has been right.

I suppose the one "reach" I made was James Jones in the 14th with guys like Bobby Wade and Northcutt available.

Come on now, while there is definitely FBG hype around James Jones, at that point you might as well take a flyer on a guy like that over Wade or Northcutt. At best Wade and Northcutt would be fill in #3 WRs. Jones at least has upside to possibly be a #2 WR. In the 14th round I'd rather take a guy with upside like Jones than waiver wire fodder. Even if it doesn't pan out, I know that I can still get someone about equal to Wade or Northcutt on the WW.

 

[faux_bear]

I took Brandon Marshall way too early. In the 8th round, before DJ Hackett and Terry Glenn.

 

[einstein2u]

this year:

david boston

vikings d

dj hackett

last year:

ben watson.

 

[phrozen]

around?

 

[phrozen]

last year I joined a start up dynasty league. 1pt Rec for RBs. I had the 1.08 and I took Lamont Jordan.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

last year I joined a start up dynasty league. 1pt Rec for RBs. I had the 1.08 and I took Lamont Jordan.

yeah, I think a lot of teams got hurt by selecting him last year. but it's dynasty and he loos OK so far this year, so maybe it will be better for ya.

 

[jbalicki10]

Players I reached to far:

Vince Young QB at the end of the 6th round

Start 3 WR:

Steve Smith

TJ Houshyourmama

Braylon Edwards

My last Three Picks because I had to cover my rear for a RB2:

Jacoby Jones WR

James Jones WR

Patrick Crayton WR

Doh!

 

[LILB811]

Pretty obvious one, and I'm sure I'm not alone here is Michael Clayton from 2005. That was brutal.

 

[dapace2]

Oh, I was so into Onterrio Smith.

I adopted a team that had holes at every position in 2005, so I traded Carnell Williams for Onterrio Smith, Koren Robinson, Matt Schaub, and Alex Smith (QB) all of which were lauded here in the forum at the time. I still have the quarterbacks, which thanks to Vick, are my only options.

 

[a_troll00]

never had either but Ronnie Brown and Caddilac were big ones last year.

For some reason, Ronnie Brown is still shoved down our throats.If Ronnie Brown is available in the second round, you must take him! You must!\

 

[EBF]

I bought big into Quincy Morgan, Matt Jones, and Adrian McPherson.

Incidentally I'm not nearly as enamored of "upside" as I used to be. Give me a good football player like Santonio Holmes or Mark Clayton over a size/speed freak like Matt Jones any day of the week.

As for McPherson, that was a case of me being carried away by my own hype. Sleepers are just that: sleepers. They should be drafted accordingly. So while I like the potential of someone like Isaiah Stanback, you won't see me burning a top 30 pick on him.

 

[Crusaderfan]

A few years ago - Barlow.

Last year - I got nailed a double whammy took Caddy at 1.10 & Jordan at 2.1. That duo cost me hundreds of $$$.

 

[Tom Servo]

Oh, I was so into Onterrio Smith.

A lot of people were...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

The captain of the Kool Aid All-Stars....Kevan Barlow, 2004

I'm still hungover.

 

[EBF]

Oh yea, I definitely bought the Barlow hype. Here's a little tip: try to avoid drafting players who can only live up to their ADP if they grossly outproduce their previous year's numbers. It seems like many of the big busts each year are guys who are expected to take a great leap forward. Recent examples include Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Cadillac Williams, Kevan Barlow, William Green, and Ronnie Brown.

Let this be a word of caution if you're rolling the dice on Cedric Benson, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, or Reggie Bush. You might get the next Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson, but you might also get the next Kevan Barlow or William Green. Some players don't have the talent to capitalize on increased opportunity, so don't assume that all of them will.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Oh yea, I definitely bought the Barlow hype. Here's a little tip: try to avoid drafting players who can only live up to their ADP if they grossly outproduce their previous year's numbers. It seems like many of the big busts each year are guys who are expected to take a great leap forward. Recent examples include Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Cadillac Williams, Kevan Barlow, William Green, and Ronnie Brown. Let this be a word of caution if you're rolling the dice on Cedric Benson, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, or Reggie Bush. You might get the next Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson, but you might also get the Kevan Barlow or William Green. Some players don't have the talent to capitalize on increased opportunity, so don't assume that all of them will.

This is an incredibly good post.

 

[vichawkfan]

Kevin Jones, Deuce in 2005

Caddy AND Ronnie Brown 2006

this year.... probably Randy Moss

 

[BroadwayG]

I completely bought into the Larry Johnson hype 2 years ago.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Oh yea, I definitely bought the Barlow hype. Here's a little tip: try to avoid drafting players who can only live up to their ADP if they grossly outproduce their previous year's numbers. It seems like many of the big busts each year are guys who are expected to take a great leap forward. Recent examples include Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Cadillac Williams, Kevan Barlow, William Green, and Ronnie Brown.

Let this be a word of caution if you're rolling the dice on Cedric Benson, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, or Reggie Bush. You might get the next Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson, but you might also get the next Kevan Barlow or William Green. Some players don't have the talent to capitalize on increased opportunity, so don't assume that all of them will.

Championships are not won out of the late draft slots by playing it safe IMO.

 

[maxwell1295]

Jamal Lewis in the 3rd at 3.11, but my league is very RB-intensive with a lot of pressure to draft them early. I suppose getting Fitz and Boldin at 4.2 and 5.11 made up for it.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The longer you play FF the less likely you are to get burned by reaching for Kool-Aid Allstars IMO. However I usually relapse about once every 3 or 4 years. Lets see....

Leeland McEllroy (rookie year)

Dorsey Levens (year Marshall Faulk blew up, and I passed on him for Levens)

J.J. Arrington (rookie year)

 

[mr blond]

Brandon Lloyd a few years back.

 

[Crusaderfan]

Oh yea, I definitely bought the Barlow hype. Here's a little tip: try to avoid drafting players who can only live up to their ADP if they grossly outproduce their previous year's numbers. It seems like many of the big busts each year are guys who are expected to take a great leap forward. Recent examples include Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Cadillac Williams, Kevan Barlow, William Green, and Ronnie Brown.

Let this be a word of caution if you're rolling the dice on Cedric Benson, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, or Reggie Bush. You might get the next Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson, but you might also get the next Kevan Barlow or William Green. Some players don't have the talent to capitalize on increased opportunity, so don't assume that all of them will.

Championships are not won out of the late draft slots by playing it safe IMO.

In my case, they were lost by gambling on Caddy and Jordan. I worked my butt off to try to recover from that but never did.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Another Barlow sucker.

 

[RockHard]

I drafted Santonio Holmes at 6.1

 

[EBF]

Oh yea, I definitely bought the Barlow hype. Here's a little tip: try to avoid drafting players who can only live up to their ADP if they grossly outproduce their previous year's numbers. It seems like many of the big busts each year are guys who are expected to take a great leap forward. Recent examples include Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Cadillac Williams, Kevan Barlow, William Green, and Ronnie Brown.

Let this be a word of caution if you're rolling the dice on Cedric Benson, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, or Reggie Bush. You might get the next Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson, but you might also get the next Kevan Barlow or William Green. Some players don't have the talent to capitalize on increased opportunity, so don't assume that all of them will.

Championships are not won out of the late draft slots by playing it safe IMO.

I agree, but there's a difference between smart risks and stupid risks. In general, people tend to be a little too optimistic about new RB starters. They look at a handful of good games and assume that the player can reproduce that success over an entire season. That's what they did with Barlow, KJ, and Willie Green. That's what they're doing with Addai and Maroney. My personal philosophy is to be wary of any untested RB who will be playing on a lousy offense. These guys seem to have a very high fail rate, whereas the guys who have played on good offenses have mostly thrived (LJ, SJax, Portis in Denver). IMO very few backs have the talent to transcend their situation (although you do occasionally see a mediocre back like Domanick Davis excel on an awful team simply because there's no one else on the offense to touch the ball). Clinton Portis was an FF monster in a great Denver system. Clinton Portis is merely a solid starter in a mediocre Washington system.

What's odd about this year's untested-but-hyped RBs is that many of them play on good teams. Addai, Maroney, and Bush have the good fortune of playing alongside some of the best QBs in the NFL on some of the league's best offenses. That will make their jobs a lot easier.

 

[freshly_shorn]

Last year I bought into the Wali Lundy hype and drank the KoolAid faster than a member at a Jim Jones spa.So I guess 2 questions.....1. What players have you been hurt by in the Kool Aid pool?2. Does Lundy hold any value this year as a late round flyer with the possibilty of an Ahman injury??

I really wish someone would put a bullet in the "drank the koolaid" cliche`.

Wow, so glad that the "sharks" give such great insight....How about just actually responding to guys that you have reached on due to a lot of hype and did not have it work out for you??? Or is that now a "Shark" move??Signed,Nemo!

Haven't reached. Sharks don't reach unnecessarily or succumb to forum hype.

 

[Yogi Berra]

DeAngelo Williams

Just getting my quote ready for next season.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Oh yea, I definitely bought the Barlow hype. Here's a little tip: try to avoid drafting players who can only live up to their ADP if they grossly outproduce their previous year's numbers. It seems like many of the big busts each year are guys who are expected to take a great leap forward. Recent examples include Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Cadillac Williams, Kevan Barlow, William Green, and Ronnie Brown.

Let this be a word of caution if you're rolling the dice on Cedric Benson, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, or Reggie Bush. You might get the next Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson, but you might also get the next Kevan Barlow or William Green. Some players don't have the talent to capitalize on increased opportunity, so don't assume that all of them will.

Championships are not won out of the late draft slots by playing it safe IMO.

I agree, but there's a difference between smart risks and stupid risks. In general, people tend to be a little too optimistic about new RB starters. They look at a handful of good games and assume that the player can reproduce that success over an entire season. That's what they did with Barlow, KJ, and Willie Green. That's what they're doing with Addai and Maroney. My personal philosophy is to be wary of any untested RB who will be playing on a lousy offense. These guys seem to have a very high fail rate, whereas the guys who have played on good offenses have mostly thrived (LJ, SJax, Portis in Denver). IMO very few backs have the talent to transcend their situation (although you do occasionally see a mediocre back like Domanick Davis excel on an awful team simply because there's no one else on the offense to touch the ball). Clinton Portis was an FF monster in a great Denver system. Clinton Portis is merely a solid starter in a mediocre Washington system.

What's odd about this year's untested-but-hyped RBs is that many of them play on good teams. Addai, Maroney, and Bush have the good fortune of playing alongside some of the best QBs in the NFL on some of the league's best offenses. That will make their jobs a lot easier.

On the Portis statement I'll have to disagree with you there. You confuse me a bit with the talk of Addai/Maroney because you seem to say they are stupid risks at the end of your first paragraph but then say they are good risks in the last paragraph (maybe). The fact that Addai, Maroney, and (Bush (only in PPR @ current draft slot)) are all on the probably the Top 3 offenses in the league makes their situation unique. I think Addai/Maroney compare better to the Portis example than the Barlow/Brown/Caddy example w/ Addai/Maroney having the benifit of playing in there respective systems for 1 year. The question people have to ask themselfs is do you want a guy like Rudi Johnson (you know his ceiling) or would you like a guy like Maroney/Addai. Personally I don't think Rudi will win people championships as a RB#1. Yes, he won't lose it for you, but when drafting a guy like that with your say...1.09 pick you are playing for 3rd place and not for 1st. The more comfortable you are with your own player projections the more likely you are to pick high risk reward type players.

 

[Banger]

I targetted and got S. Holmes a little earlier than ADP but the jury is still out on whether it will be a reach or a home run.

In the past I got derailed by the Matt Jones train but have avoided most of the RB debacles. I tend to go with proven guys in the 1st few rounds over upside guys. I may miss on a few breakouts but I avoid many more busts. I tend to take my risks with wr's in the middle rounds as they are easier to recover from if you miss badly.

 

[Domination]

After this year I think the culprits will be...

1) MJD

2) MBIII

3) D Will