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Top 24 Rookie 2018 (1 Viewer)

Snorkelson

Footballguy
Using Travis henry as an example doesn’t take the man off the field into account for a career that wasn’t sustainable. He didn’t seem to make good decisions off the field. I’m only speculating, but when you have a bunch of kids with a bunch of women how can it not become a distraction? That may seem like a bs take, but I think you have to take some of that kind of stuff into account. Seems like a lot of late nights chasing women, how dedicated could the guy be to football?

 

Bronco Billy

Footballguy
It is respectfully submitted that your rebuttal had nothing to do with what I actually said.  If your whole attitude wasn’t dripping with toolishness, I’d engage.  


You sure do just keep deflecting.  I guess I have my answer.  Have a good day.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
 On the other hand, I see 6 of last year's rookie RBs ranked as top 10 dynasty backs on some lists (Fournette, Hunt, Kamara, McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon) and I'll bet that over the next two years half of those guys will see their value degrade significantly.
Their rankings have to do with the general RB landscape and (the rankers) playing the odds. Of course for various reasons half of those guys will likely fall out of the top 10 - but we'd be merely guessing which player is going to suffer a myriad of injuries, get in trouble off the field, get fat and lazy or just simply regress. Right now those guys seem like decent candidates to have good careers and are ranked appropriately based on the information we have at our disposal.  

 

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
Their rankings have to do with the general RB landscape and (the rankers) playing the odds. Of course for various reasons half of those guys will likely fall out of the top 10 - but we'd be merely guessing which player is going to suffer a myriad of injuries, get in trouble off the field, get fat and lazy or just simply regress. Right now those guys seem like decent candidates to have good careers and are ranked appropriately based on the information we have at our disposal.  
Yeah that makes sense, but I don't think that's how people look at it.  I think most FFers generally consider them all having basically hit (and referencing it as so when talking about this year's RBs), the same way that a year or two after the 2014 WR class (which to be fair, is still amazing) people talked about how amazing it was that they all ended up great.  Of course two of those guys they were referencing were Watkins and Benjamin.

It's one of the reasons I always think people should focus far less on needs when drafting/trading in the offseason.  Open up any trade thread or "who do I pick" thread and you'll see stuff like "well you have Zeke and Cook and Mixon at RB so you are really set there and you should look to trade that 1.3 for some WR help".  Then the season kicks off and Cook/Mixon are busts and suddenly you really need that RB you could have taken at 1.3.  Same story in redrafts drafting in the offseason.

The reality is you don't actually know what your needs are until the season gets going, because once it does nothing is going to end up like you expected it to be.  That's why I'm always an advocate of getting the guy you think is most likely to hit regardless of your team needs.  If you get the guy that hits then you can maneuver for your needs in-season where you get the advantage of actually knowing which guys are good, not just the ones that were expected to be so, and of course when you actually know what your team needs are rather than just guessing at what they will be in the offseason.

 
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EBF

Footballguy
Final roster tally after 5 rookie drafts:

CHASE EDMONDS - 4

HAYDEN HURST - 4
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NICK CHUBB - 2

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MARK ANDREWS - 1
SAQUON BARKLEY - 1
MICHAEL GALLUP - 1
LAMAR JACKSON - 1
DJ MOORE - 1
J'MON MOORE - 1
JAYLEN SAMUELS - 1

--------------------------------

Not a big fan of this draft class overall. I think the top 10-12 guys are pretty good. In the 2nd round I'm taking Hurst. Edmonds is my preferred round 3-4 guy. The TEs and QBs can provide value there as well if they fall. For the late flyers, I've taken shots on Jaylen Samuels and J'Mon Moore. Can't say I have high confidence in either of them, but they have some good qualities. Jordan Wilkins can potentially be redraft relevant, but long-term he's a JAG.

Looking back at my list, I had Ballage too high. The versatility is nice, but he's kind of a one speed runner without much flash to his game.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Preseason adjustments:

1. Saquon Barkley - Looked as advertised in limited duty. Clear #1 this year.

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2. Rashaad Penny - There's a good argument that Guice and Chubb are better long-term talents, but he was drafted higher and his immediate outlook is a lot better. I think I underrated him on the first pass, though I don't really see special here. 

3. Derrius Guice - Redshirt year due to injury. How patient can you be? People like Freeman and Penny are likely to leapfrog him in value this year. He can still snatch them in future years.

4. Nick Chubb - Has looked a little less impressive than I anticipated, yet he's shown enough flashes to where I'm not panicking yet. The bigger issue is that his value is likely to stagnate this season unless he can leapfrog Hyde and Johnson. There's no sign that it's imminent.

5. DJ Moore - Has shown enough flashes to maintain his spot in the second tier.

6. Royce Freeman - This year's Kareem Hunt? I don't believe he's a special back for the long haul, so I'd be looking to sell high next summer, but he's the best back on the Broncos by far and is poised to potentially be the second best rookie RB in redraft leagues.

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7. Courtland Sutton - Gets a slight bump, mainly due to other people falling, but also because he's shown a little something.

8. Ronald Jones III - I was never fully sold and he's done nothing out of the gate. He gets knocked down into the third tier.

9. Sony Michel - I wasn't a huge fan from the get-go, and with the injury woes, I'm even less excited.

10. Michael Gallup - May be a little more pedestrian than advertised, but there's not much else to get excited about at WR and he has an immediate path to relevance.

11. Christian Kirk - Looks as advertised. Useful complementary piece. Probably not much more.

12. Calvin Ridley - I'm tempted to bump him up to the WR3 in this class, but I still feel he's probably just a depth guy in FF.

13. Kerryon Johnson - Like Freeman, his short-term opportunity gives him a better chance to spike in value than a lot of these other players. He's probably better than I initially gave him credit for being, but long-term may still just be a JAG.

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14. Baker Mayfield - So far, so good.

15. Hayden Hurst - Was looking like a sneaky redraft sleeper until his foot injury. Assuming that it doesn't linger, I think he's one of the safer picks in this class.

16. Josh Rosen - No reason to move the needle too much yet.

17. Sam Darnold - Promising start. Still behind the other two QBs for now.

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18. Lamar Jackson - Looks like a project. Flashy potential can make him a good sell high candidate down the line when his time comes.

19. Chase Edmonds - Sticking with him as the best of the rest once you get outside the day 1-2 RBs.

20. Mike Gesicki - Not a believer, but when you look at the draft slot and the early buzz, there's enough there to justify a bump.

21. Chris Warren - Looking like a good "thunder" piece of a future RBBC, like a young Michael Bush. Limited ceiling.

22. Dallas Goedert - No significant movement up or down yet.

23. Josh Allen - As with the other QBs, I'm not revising my assessment yet.

24. Ian Thomas - Looks like he will get on the field some as a rookie, and with Olsen being long in the tooth, his time could come soon.

DROPPED OUT:

Mark Andrews - Still has the makings of a potentially useful TE down the line, but he's been quiet in the preseason and has been held out of many practices. Good stash candidate in deep leagues and TE-premium. Expect nothing this season.

Kalen Ballage - I overrated him on the first pass. JAG-gier than I thought, and Drake's continued ascent makes any redraft value look nil without an injury.

Mark Walton - Been leapfrogged by other players who have shown more.

RISERS:

John Kelly - I wouldn't go crazy here, but he's worth more than he was a few months ago. Shown some flashes.

Antonio Callaway - It doesn't matter how good you are if you can't stay out of trouble. Still, he at least warrants a mention.

Jordan Wilkins - On paper, everything points towards mediocrity. His film is good though and the Colts have nothing proven at RB.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Additional thoughts:

- The first pick is a slam dunk this year, but I don't have huge confidence in much else. There are players I like and players I don't like, but I can see next year's ADP for this bunch in startups being all over the place. I think the drop from the #1 pick to the next few picks is as steep this year as we've seen it in a while, yet I'm sure some of these other guys are going to hit. There's quality there, it's just that I wouldn't want to be counting on anyone besides Saquon.

- The big preseason winners are probably Freeman among the high tier guys and Warren among the flyers. I think Royce is going to be one of those guys who comes in, has a pretty good rookie year, is overdrafted in startups next year, and then regresses to a somewhat mediocre career. If you own him, you have to like how it's breaking so far though.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Not sold on Miller. Limited slot guy on a team with a suspect passing offense.

I get that some people like him. High pick. Good training camp. Limited competition for targets.

Despite that, he's not a player that I believe in.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Just when I drop Mark Andrews out of the top 24, he goes and makes a play like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N32sqDEPyUw

Granted, it's against week 4 preseason scrubs, but that looks an awful lot like the type of thing he did at Oklahoma last season. He's a massive target and has a lot more speed than you'd expect. Gets off the line pretty fast there and has a burst of acceleration after he bounces off that hit. I like what I'm seeing.

Andrews early in his Oklahoma career looked like a Coby Fleener type of athlete. He was skinnier with more athleticism. Now he looks more like a Gronk type physically. Just a big load who rumbles after the catch. Someone offered him to me for a future 4th in a 12 team league last week and I jumped at the chance. He also fell to me DEEP in a recent mixed rookie/FA draft (5.04 pick).

I'm still not going crazy in standard leagues where TEs aren't worth a lot, but for his ADP he looks like a quality find. With limited talent at WR, I wouldn't be surprised to see him and Hurst both get a lot of opportunities in the near future.

 
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Bronco Billy

Footballguy
Still pushing that this RB class is very deep and special and the WRs are “dire” (to use your word). At what point do you stop trying to prove your initial assumptions correct and start believing what you are seeing?

 

EBF

Footballguy
Still pushing that this RB class is very deep and special and the WRs are “dire” (to use your word). At what point do you stop trying to prove your initial assumptions correct and start believing what you are seeing?
You're acting like those assertions have been proven wrong. I don't see any strong evidence to the contrary yet.

Draft position is a pretty good rough indicator of class quality. This year's WR class had 2 players picked in the first round and 10 players picked in the first three rounds. If you look at the preceding 10 draft classes (2008-2017), the averages are 3.6 first round receivers per year and 12.9 first-third round receivers per year. This year's class falls short of both marks. Only the 2008 draft had fewer first round WRs (2010 also had two). Every other year had more. Only the 2016 class had fewer WRs chosen in the first three rounds. Moreover, there was no WR drafted in the top 10 this year, so even among the two first round guys (Moore and Ridley), there's no Julio/Green/Blackmon/Evans/Cooper type viewed as a super elite prospect entering the league. All in all, the objective indicators point towards this being a weak WR class. Now maybe one of these third rounders will turn into Steve Smith or one of the day three guys will become Antonio Brown, but outcomes usually align with the historical odds and this group is below average in that regard. 

This year's class had 3 RBs picked in the first round and 8 backs picked in the first 3 rounds. If you look at the preceding 10 draft classes (2008-2017), the averages are 2.0 first round running backs per year and 7.3 first-third round running backs per year. So this year's draft is objectively above average in terms of elite prospects and good prospects. It also boasts Saquon Barkley, the highest RB drafted since 2007. Out of the last 10 draft classes, only the historic 2008 group (McFadden, Stewart, CJ2K, Mendenhall, Forte, Rice, Charles, Slaton) had more RBs picked in the first round and the first three rounds than this year's class. All in all, the objective indicators point towards this being a strong RB class.

There's always the possibility that an abnormally high number of this year's WRs will exceed the historical odds of their draft slot and that the RBs will underwhelm, but I don't see any obvious reason to bank on that right now.

 

Kitrick Taylor

Footballguy
I wouldn't put him in my top 24, and would prefer J'Mon Moore as well....But I'm taking Valdes-Scantling with my last pick everywhere I can.  He seems like he's the forgotten man with Moore going ahead of him, and ESB following him.  

Kid is 6'4" 206lbs, and ran a 4.37/40.  Broad jump was a solid 124.  

It's a long shot, but if he hits, his ceiling is very high with Rodgers at QB.  
Love it when a plan comes together.  

 

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