EBF
Footballguy
FIRST TIER
1. RB Saquon Barkley, Giants - Not much needs to be said about this one. Barkley would be a strong 1.01 rookie pick in almost any draft. Elite athletic traits combined with versatility and a competitive nature. Anything can happen with injuries and off-field stuff, but it's hard to envision him failing. A slam dunk 1.01 pick and instantly an elite dynasty asset. There's even an argument for taking him with the 1st pick in a dynasty startup draft.
SECOND TIER
2. RB Derrius Guice, Redskins - The fact that he slipped in the draft a bit is a red flag because it suggests teams had some concerns about him, but the late 2nd is still high for a RB and he's an instant upgrade over everything Washington has at RB. He should be a day one starter and he's capable of a big rookie impact ala Eddie Lacy and Kareem Hunt. From a talent standpoint, I like him more than Penny, Michel, Jones, and Freeman. Much like Leonard Fournette before him, he's a no-nonsense banger with a rare combination of power and straight-line explosiveness. His footwork and cuts are merely adequate, but when you add up everything else, he's still a plus talent. The aforementioned Lacy (pre-decline) and Hunt are in the same general ballpark. I'm expecting an instant splash as long as he stays motivated and out of trouble. There seems to be a latent layer of character risk based on how many teams ducked him in the draft.
3. RB Nick Chubb, Browns - He doesn't seem quite as special as he was pre-injury, but the stats suggest his explosiveness has returned to normal pre-injury levels (after a big drop in 2016, his long run % bounced back in 2017 to his freshman-sophomore levels). He's a bit untested as a pass catcher, but he's a good pure rushing talent who combines size, power, speed, and underrated cutting ability. Former NFL stalwart Willis McGahee is a pretty good comparison for a variety of reasons. Both are bigger backs with above average speed and footwork who lost some ability to a devastating injury, but still have starter tools. There's some situational uncertainty in Cleveland due to the presence of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson, so don't be surprised if Chubb falls behind other rookie RBs for the next year or two. Long-term, I think he's the second best RB talent in this draft if he can avoid the injury bug.
4. WR DJ Moore, Panthers - While I don't know if he's ever going to be a dominant #1 WR in the NFL, Moore seems like a high floor prospect who also possesses a pretty good ceiling. He's an athletic dynamo with a freaky combination of weight, speed, and explosiveness. He was a productive college player and a lot of his workout metrics translate to the field. He can win downfield, is strong at the catch point, and is dangerous after the catch. Although very athletic, he's a little bit tight as a route runner, but it's not a huge concern. If we're looking for a comparison, I think he's like a plus version of Pierre Garcon, with superior athletic tools and football skills packed into a similar body type. I can see his career going the way of Donte Stallworth where he's a solid complementary piece without ever really being "the man" for a passing game, but there's a high floor and ceiling. I'd feel good taking him anywhere in the mid-late first in a PPR rookie draft.
5. RB Ronald Jones, Buccaneers - I was initially pretty down on this pick, but the more I watch him, the more optimistic I become. Jones often draws Jamaal Charles comparisons due to his thin frame and vertical explosiveness. While Jones has good speed, I think Charles in his prime was a step faster. Still, Jones has above average speed. I wouldn't describe him as an exceptionally shifty back who strings together a lot of moves, but he can make sharp initial cuts and is an efficient runner. His overall game, physique, talent level, and draft position are somewhat reminiscent of Dalvin Cook from the 2017 class. Both are undersized backs who lack leg drive to push the pile in the NFL, but have smooth north-south running skills with above average play speed. In terms of style and outlook, Jones will probably fall somewhere on the lower end of the scale from Tevin Coleman -- Melvin Gordon -- Jamaal Charles. I think there's some bust risk with him, but I like him more than Michel/Penny/Freeman and he could start as a rookie, so the potential for instant boom is there. Not a can't-miss guy, but a pretty good gamble.
THIRD TIER
6. RB Rashaad Penny, Seahawks - I like the draft slot, the immediate opportunity, the NCAA production, and the size-speed combo. Penny has no shortage of positives and is yet another high-profile rookie RB from this list who could start on day one. Still, he doesn't really jump off the screen in the way that I'd expect a first round RB to do. When I watch him run, I see solid, not special. His long speed is good for his size, but his game seems to lack a bit of suddeness and he's not an overly elusive back. Although they have a different body type and play style, the situation, talent level, versatility, and draft slot remind me of former Colts RB Joseph Addai. Addai wasn't really a special back in the NFL, but he was okay at everything and that was enough to make him a productive FF starter for a few years. I wouldn't expect greatness from Penny, but he should be a decent plug-and-play option right away and his sheer speed will likely lead to some big plays.
7. RB Sony Michel, Patriots - I like Michel as a player, but I'm not sure what makes him a first round back. His combination of size and speed is pretty ordinary for the NFL level. While he has some explosiveness and mobility, he's not really a shifty back who's going to consistently win with moves and quickness like LeSean McCoy. His speed is good, but not elite. I don't think he's a carbon copy of Shane Vereen, but there are similarities between him and the former Pats 2nd round pick who never quite lived up to the best case scenario. Both are versatile backs who lack ideal size and elite athletic traits. Michel is not a bad player. I think he's going to do some good things in the NFL and he has value by virtue of the situation/opportunity, but on talent alone I would've pegged him as a 2nd-3rd round NFL draft pick, so I have trouble getting too excited even with this intriguing landing spot. He can be instantly useful in PPR and deeper leagues, but personally I'll be surprised if he's ever a standout RB1 in FF. He's better than Donald Brown or Felix Jones, but he's similar in the sense of being a 1st round RB with 'tweener size/speed.
8. WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos - This is a pretty dire looking WR crop in my estimation. I'm sure there will be some success stories, but the pickings seem pretty slim. Sutton is one of the few guys I'd really contemplate using a top 15 rookie pick on. He was a productive college player who has exceptional height, length, and downfield/jump ball potential. There's a pretty good ceiling here and if this pick hits, you could have a top 15 FF WR whose style falls somewhere in between Mike Evans and Marques Colston. Like those two, Sutton is a taller and longer WR with decent bulk who wins with range and passable mobility. Sutton isn't going to be a route dynamo in the NFL and getting consistent separation will probably be his biggest challenge. His quickness and overall movement are just average. He's not stiff, but he's not an elite athlete for his height either. Overall, I like, but don't love his game. He's not a can't-miss guy, but there's enough here to justify a late 1st.
9. RB Royce Freeman, Broncos - Freeman has seemingly been around forever and even though he was always a productive player at Oregon, I never really bought in 100%. He has an ideal frame and possesses decent east-west quickness for a bigger back. He can catch the ball and he's an experienced player who can play on all three downs. I know this is becoming a theme with this rookie class, but he can step in right away and probably produce decent numbers as a rookie. Long-term, is he going to last as a starter in the NFL? Is he going to be more than a JAG? His vertical explosiveness is merely average and there's not a lot of "wow" factor to anything he does. As I've commented before, he doesn't run with the reckless abandon of Barkley or Guice and doesn't look like a guy who relishes contact despite having the frame to run with authority. Given where he went in the NFL draft and where he's likely to fall in rookie drafts, I really can't knock the value. He's capable of yielding multiple 1,000 yard rushing seasons. However, I think he's merely a "pretty good" talent and I don't really see him elevating his circumstances.
10. WR Michael Gallup, Cowboys - A bit of a size/speed tweener. He doesn't have great size or speed and is a scrappy possession WR. He will have to fight and claw for every yard because he's not going to run by NFL defenders. Still, he's a reasonably big target with good possession skills and decent overall mobility. You could point towards Hakeem Nicks and Keenan Allen for comparables, though Allen is more athletic and Nicks in his prime was a better version of Gallup. Gallup isn't an elite prospect, but he has the potential to develop into one of the top 2-3 receivers from this class and is possibly the best WR on the Cowboys, which could give him instant value. Not an elite prospect or a sure thing, but he has the potential to be the Michael Thomas/JuJu Smith-Schuster of this draft as a day two pick who outproduces the first round guys.
11. WR Christian Kirk, Cardinals - Short, but solidly built with above average straight line speed. He was a jack-of-all-trades playmaker at Texas A&M, consistently finding a way to make an impact. While he has a reputation as a good athlete, he's more straight-line fast than quick, lacking great route suddenness and open field agility. He's not Randall Cobb or Percy Harvin in space. He's gritty and competitive, and you feel like he'll find a way to stick in the league and contribute. However, he's a somewhat flawed athlete who doesn't look like a great candidate to ever be a team's WR1. To me, he's a high-ish floor, moderate ceiling depth guy in FF who can maybe give you some solid WR2-WR3 seasons if he works out.
12. WR Calvin Ridley, Falcons - He's a snappy route runner with good explosiveness and WR skills. Even in the NFL, his vertical speed will challenge people and create RAC opportunities. However, Ridley lacks any semblance of size or strength and doesn't seem like the type to become a high-volume WR1. He's not going to be a great possession or jump ball WR. If you really want to stretch for an optimistic comparison, you could point towards TY Hilton as a success story from this ilk, but ultimately I think there's a big chance that Ridley becomes a mere complementary piece who never gets enough work to be a reliable FF option. As I've said before, he's closer to Harry Douglas than Julio Jones. Even though he isn't viewed as an elite FF prospect, I'm likely to avoid him at his ADP.
FOURTH TIER
13. TE Hayden Hurst, Ravens - I'm a little surprised by the lack of hype for Hurst in rookie drafts, as he consistently falls below where I think he should be taken. I guess it's the perfect storm of him being an overaged late riser whose opportunity was complicated by the subsequent drafting of Mark Andrews at the same position. For whatever reason, he's often taken a full round below Gesicki and even Goedert even though he was the higher pick and is (IMO) the better prospect. Some of the players in the draft are hard to peg, but I see Hurst as a pretty straightforward projection. While he lacks the dominant TD potential of a Gronk or Graham, he's an exceptional athlete for his size who can terrorize linebackers and safeties over the middle. He has excellent play strength and quickness. Good route runner and dangerous after the catch. Although Gesicki is a better athlete on paper, Hurst is vastly superior in his movement and athleticism on the football field. Look for him to become a solid mid-level TE1 in the mold of Chris Cooley or Owen Daniels. The fact that he's 24 years old is negative because he's a finished product physically and his remaining shelf life is relatively short compared with a typical rookie. I like him more as a prospect than people like Ridley/Freeman/Kirk and I'd take him above them in TE-premium, but you have to account for the fact that TE is a devalued position in most FF leagues.
14. QB Baker Mayfield, Browns - I've invested minimal amounts of time and energy evaluating this QB class, so I'm not going to try to act like the world's foremost expert on this group. Still, from what I've seen, I agree with the Browns in liking Mayfield the most. I like quarterbacks who are fearless and assertive, and those qualities definitely apply to Mayfield. He plays with great confidence and will not be awed by he big moment. He's an accurate passer. He was immensely productive in college, seems to have plenty of arm strength, and adequate instincts/field vision. While not very tall, he has a compact and sturdy frame reminiscent of Russell Wilson, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Matt Stafford. I don't see durability being an issue. With him being a shotgun and spread guy, there will be questions about his ability to translate some of that into the NFL. Also, while he's not a bad athlete, he doesn't have elite ability to escape the rush and will probably take some sacks in the NFL. Still, I like the character and the throwing ability. I haven't seen enough to say he's definitely going to be special, but I think there's a Cutler/Stafford/Favre feel here, and while we can't assume a HoF career, he might actually be better at taking care of the ball than that group.
15. QB Josh Rosen, Cardinals - Rosen was productive at UCLA despite not always having a lot of help and I think he has a lot of the traits needed to be solid in the NFL. He might have the highest floor of any QB in this draft. His accuracy and poise are good. He processes the field quickly and should be strong at the mental aspects of playing QB in the NFL. He is good against the rush and does not wilt in pressure situations. He's a marginal athlete though. Arm strength is not elite. Thin frame with minimal mobility. Durability may be an issue, as he's not built to take a lot of sacks. His personality may rub some people the wrong way. Style-wise, he's in the same ballpark as people like Chad Pennington, Jared Goff, and Tom Brady. Lean and marginal athlete who relies on superior mental game. There's a Pro Bowl ceiling if everything clicks just right, but he's more likely to be a fringe QB1 in FF. However, if you need a solid starter in deeper leagues or 2QB formats, I think he's a pretty good gamble.
16. RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions - It seems like a lazy comparison given his draft spot and team, but he really does remind me of former Lions bust Kevin Smith. Both have solid height-weight on paper, but are leaner backs with a high center of gravity and weak base. Johnson's straight-line explosiveness is fine, but it's not special. He doesn't have great cutting ability or power. With his leaner build and lack of elite avoidance skills, I see him taking a beating in the NFL. I think we're looking at a James Starks type of player. He'll have games where he's startable in FF, but he's not a special back and I don't think he's the long-term answer for the Lions. If I took him in my rookie draft, I'd probably be looking to sell on hype if he manages to make some noise as a rookie.
17. QB Sam Darnold, Jets - Darnold was the second pick in the draft and a lot of the scouting reports I've read were very positive, but I'm not entirely sold on him. He's a tough QB with good production, but I think his accuracy and poise under pressure are not as good as advertised. He is more rattled by pressure than Rosen or Mayfield and will float passes into dangerous territory. He was a turnover machine in 2017, throwing too many interceptions and fumbling too much. His mechanics are bad, with a long wind-up. Overall, I think he looks like more of a bust risk than Mayfield and Rosen, but I still respect the high draft slot and that's why he's not lower on this list.
FIFTH TIER
18. QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens - Elite athlete for a QB, with size, speed, and elusiveness. He has elite rushing ability and is mobile in the pocket. Arm strength looks pretty good, but his accuracy can be inconsistent and he's prone to floating intermediate passes. Awareness of the pass rush and poise under pressure are two areas of varying concern, as he sometimes locks onto his main read. While the rushing tools are nice, QBs in the NFL ultimately live and die based mostly on their throwing ability. Jackson isn't a terrible passer, but he's not great either. The overall package is highly reminiscent of Colin Kaepernick. Both have standout physical traits combined with solid arm strength, but just okay passing instincts and accuracy. It's pretty common for run-heavy QBs to flash early before falling off once teams learn how to play them (Vick, Young, and Kaepernick all followed this pattern). I would expect a similar trajectory for Jackson, meaning an early splash within the first year or two followed by regression to mediocrity. At that point whether or not he sticks as a starter will depend on his ability to improve. There's a pretty good ceiling here for FF leagues, but he's not that likely to hit it.
19. RB Chase Edmonds, Cardinals - Every year there are one or two day three prospects who become personal favorites. Edmonds is one of those guys for me this year. At 5'9" 205 with 4.55 speed in the 40, he's a little bit borderline from a height/weight/speed standpoint, lacking either the 220+ pound frame or the elite straight-line explosiveness to project as an obvious starter. There's a pretty big risk that he'll top out as a backup in the NFL and will never get a large enough role to be FF relevant. With all that said, I really like his game. Although not a huge back, his distribution of weight is ideal, with a strong trunk and running base. He's not a thumper like Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew, but he can play a little bit stronger than his measurables alone would indicate. His best quality is probably his elite cutting ability and lateral movement. Edmonds is one of the more elusive backs in this draft, having exceptional balance and hips to string together multiple moves. He is a perfectly clean and efficient runner. There's a sneaky Brian Westbrook/Ray Rice type of potential here. If he were a little more juiced from a size and/or speed standpoint then I'd say he's an elite prospect, but as I said there's a chance he's just not either big or fast enough to really thrive in the NFL. Still, I like him enough to take a chance on him in the third round of a rookie draft. A worthy stash at his currently low ADP.
20. RB Kalen Ballage, Dolphins - I like him more than most of the day three backs. He has some size, versatility, and straight-line speed. He should stick on a roster and can contribute in spurts. Kind of a poor man's Alvin Kamara. Don't expect the world, but if Drake falters, Ballage could be playable as a rookie. Low YPC in college is a bit of a concern, but may be partially down to usage/system. Ultimately, not a can't-miss talent, but any RB with three down potential is worth a lottery ticket at a certain point.
21. TE Mark Andrews, Ravens - Andrews caught my eye in his RS freshman season at Oklahoma with a number of splash plays. He continued to build on that over the course of his college career and set new statistical highs across the board last season as a junior. He's a quality pass-catching talent, but not an elite prospect. While Andrews possesses sneaky athleticism and an ideal frame, the added bulk seems to have cost him some of the explosiveness and mobility that he had earlier in his college career. He has good straight line speed for such a big target, but rounds off his routes and may struggle to separate against some NFL defenders. He's big with soft hands and good red zone potential. The way I see it, Hayden Hurst will be a better TE between the 20s, but Andrews may be the better red zone TE. Hurst is the better pure athlete, but both have the potential to be useful FF TEs. Andrews does remind me a little bit of Gronk with his size and lumbering mobility.
22. RB Mark Walton, Bengals - Borderline workout numbers. He plays with more strength and speed than his workout numbers would indicate though. He's a one-cut-and-go north-south runner who has the talent to thrive in spot duty. Is he really a long-term starter in the NFL though? Probably not, and with him stuck behind Mixon, you may be waiting a while for payoff that's not guaranteed.
23. TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles - Average is the word that comes to mind when I think of Goedert. It's impressive that a small school guy was able to get picked so high, but I don't see special traits. His mobility and route running will not be elite at the NFL level. In a best case scenario, I can see him becoming a steady, yet unspectacular option like Heath Miller. I'm likely to avoid him at his rookie ADP though, as I think there are better options.
24. QB Josh Allen, Bills - Ideal frame. Elite arm strength. Can zing the ball all over the field. Accuracy and touch are all over the place. Wasn't a very productive college player despite playing in a small conference. Not a statue, but not very mobile either. He's more of a "tools" guy than a finished product, and I'm always leery of that when it comes to QBs. If you didn't dominate in college, it's not going to get any easier in the NFL. More likely than not to be a bust, due to his suspect accuracy and instincts. If he polishes the edges, the pure throwing ability can be elite, but I don't think that's going to happen.
OTHERS:
RB Boston Scott, Saints - Straight-line banger packed into a short frame. Explosive. People will compare him to Sproles because of the height and team, but he's not elusive. He's a power runner trapped in a short body. Interesting roster stash, but he's probably just a bit player in the NFL.
RB Nyheim Hines, Colts - Probably JAG in the NFL. Good athlete. No play strength. He's a committee back and not a special one.
WR Keke Coutee, Texans - Good athlete, but little. Explosive deep speed. Poor man's TY Hilton.
WR James Washington, Steelers - One trick pony deep threat. I don't think he'll do enough besides that to have consistent value.
WR Anthony Miller, Bears - Explosive complementary guy. I don't see any real potential for volume or useful FF stats.
WR TreQuan Smith, Saints - Tall and lean with good measurable athleticism, but average football athleticism. An Aaron Dobson type. Overdrafted by a couple rounds IMO.
WR DJ Chark, Jaguars - Little and fast. I don't think he's more than a situational deep threat in the NFL.
WR Dante Pettis, 49ers - Overdrafted because of his return skills. A modest talent at WR. Absolute ceiling would be a #2 for his team, but even that seems unlikely.
WR J'Mon Moore, Packers - A tall and smooth athlete. Nice vertical ability. He's a one speed player though and could struggle to consistently separate. Worth a roster spot.
WR Jaleel Scott, Ravens - Tall and deceptively athletic. Good jump ball potential. Slow off the line. Builds speed. Worth a waiver claim, but don't go crazy.
TE Ian Thomas, Panthers - Modest foot quickness and route running ability, but he's a good straight line speed/size combination. It's going to take a couple years, but he has the upside to develop into a low end FF TE1. Not too exciting if you aren't involved in TE premium leagues, but he's a good value selection at his ADP.
TE Mike Gesicki, Dolphins - Seam threat and red zone target. Good straight-line explosiveness, but lacks base strength and is a limited route runner. Overrated.
1. RB Saquon Barkley, Giants - Not much needs to be said about this one. Barkley would be a strong 1.01 rookie pick in almost any draft. Elite athletic traits combined with versatility and a competitive nature. Anything can happen with injuries and off-field stuff, but it's hard to envision him failing. A slam dunk 1.01 pick and instantly an elite dynasty asset. There's even an argument for taking him with the 1st pick in a dynasty startup draft.
SECOND TIER
2. RB Derrius Guice, Redskins - The fact that he slipped in the draft a bit is a red flag because it suggests teams had some concerns about him, but the late 2nd is still high for a RB and he's an instant upgrade over everything Washington has at RB. He should be a day one starter and he's capable of a big rookie impact ala Eddie Lacy and Kareem Hunt. From a talent standpoint, I like him more than Penny, Michel, Jones, and Freeman. Much like Leonard Fournette before him, he's a no-nonsense banger with a rare combination of power and straight-line explosiveness. His footwork and cuts are merely adequate, but when you add up everything else, he's still a plus talent. The aforementioned Lacy (pre-decline) and Hunt are in the same general ballpark. I'm expecting an instant splash as long as he stays motivated and out of trouble. There seems to be a latent layer of character risk based on how many teams ducked him in the draft.
3. RB Nick Chubb, Browns - He doesn't seem quite as special as he was pre-injury, but the stats suggest his explosiveness has returned to normal pre-injury levels (after a big drop in 2016, his long run % bounced back in 2017 to his freshman-sophomore levels). He's a bit untested as a pass catcher, but he's a good pure rushing talent who combines size, power, speed, and underrated cutting ability. Former NFL stalwart Willis McGahee is a pretty good comparison for a variety of reasons. Both are bigger backs with above average speed and footwork who lost some ability to a devastating injury, but still have starter tools. There's some situational uncertainty in Cleveland due to the presence of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson, so don't be surprised if Chubb falls behind other rookie RBs for the next year or two. Long-term, I think he's the second best RB talent in this draft if he can avoid the injury bug.
4. WR DJ Moore, Panthers - While I don't know if he's ever going to be a dominant #1 WR in the NFL, Moore seems like a high floor prospect who also possesses a pretty good ceiling. He's an athletic dynamo with a freaky combination of weight, speed, and explosiveness. He was a productive college player and a lot of his workout metrics translate to the field. He can win downfield, is strong at the catch point, and is dangerous after the catch. Although very athletic, he's a little bit tight as a route runner, but it's not a huge concern. If we're looking for a comparison, I think he's like a plus version of Pierre Garcon, with superior athletic tools and football skills packed into a similar body type. I can see his career going the way of Donte Stallworth where he's a solid complementary piece without ever really being "the man" for a passing game, but there's a high floor and ceiling. I'd feel good taking him anywhere in the mid-late first in a PPR rookie draft.
5. RB Ronald Jones, Buccaneers - I was initially pretty down on this pick, but the more I watch him, the more optimistic I become. Jones often draws Jamaal Charles comparisons due to his thin frame and vertical explosiveness. While Jones has good speed, I think Charles in his prime was a step faster. Still, Jones has above average speed. I wouldn't describe him as an exceptionally shifty back who strings together a lot of moves, but he can make sharp initial cuts and is an efficient runner. His overall game, physique, talent level, and draft position are somewhat reminiscent of Dalvin Cook from the 2017 class. Both are undersized backs who lack leg drive to push the pile in the NFL, but have smooth north-south running skills with above average play speed. In terms of style and outlook, Jones will probably fall somewhere on the lower end of the scale from Tevin Coleman -- Melvin Gordon -- Jamaal Charles. I think there's some bust risk with him, but I like him more than Michel/Penny/Freeman and he could start as a rookie, so the potential for instant boom is there. Not a can't-miss guy, but a pretty good gamble.
THIRD TIER
6. RB Rashaad Penny, Seahawks - I like the draft slot, the immediate opportunity, the NCAA production, and the size-speed combo. Penny has no shortage of positives and is yet another high-profile rookie RB from this list who could start on day one. Still, he doesn't really jump off the screen in the way that I'd expect a first round RB to do. When I watch him run, I see solid, not special. His long speed is good for his size, but his game seems to lack a bit of suddeness and he's not an overly elusive back. Although they have a different body type and play style, the situation, talent level, versatility, and draft slot remind me of former Colts RB Joseph Addai. Addai wasn't really a special back in the NFL, but he was okay at everything and that was enough to make him a productive FF starter for a few years. I wouldn't expect greatness from Penny, but he should be a decent plug-and-play option right away and his sheer speed will likely lead to some big plays.
7. RB Sony Michel, Patriots - I like Michel as a player, but I'm not sure what makes him a first round back. His combination of size and speed is pretty ordinary for the NFL level. While he has some explosiveness and mobility, he's not really a shifty back who's going to consistently win with moves and quickness like LeSean McCoy. His speed is good, but not elite. I don't think he's a carbon copy of Shane Vereen, but there are similarities between him and the former Pats 2nd round pick who never quite lived up to the best case scenario. Both are versatile backs who lack ideal size and elite athletic traits. Michel is not a bad player. I think he's going to do some good things in the NFL and he has value by virtue of the situation/opportunity, but on talent alone I would've pegged him as a 2nd-3rd round NFL draft pick, so I have trouble getting too excited even with this intriguing landing spot. He can be instantly useful in PPR and deeper leagues, but personally I'll be surprised if he's ever a standout RB1 in FF. He's better than Donald Brown or Felix Jones, but he's similar in the sense of being a 1st round RB with 'tweener size/speed.
8. WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos - This is a pretty dire looking WR crop in my estimation. I'm sure there will be some success stories, but the pickings seem pretty slim. Sutton is one of the few guys I'd really contemplate using a top 15 rookie pick on. He was a productive college player who has exceptional height, length, and downfield/jump ball potential. There's a pretty good ceiling here and if this pick hits, you could have a top 15 FF WR whose style falls somewhere in between Mike Evans and Marques Colston. Like those two, Sutton is a taller and longer WR with decent bulk who wins with range and passable mobility. Sutton isn't going to be a route dynamo in the NFL and getting consistent separation will probably be his biggest challenge. His quickness and overall movement are just average. He's not stiff, but he's not an elite athlete for his height either. Overall, I like, but don't love his game. He's not a can't-miss guy, but there's enough here to justify a late 1st.
9. RB Royce Freeman, Broncos - Freeman has seemingly been around forever and even though he was always a productive player at Oregon, I never really bought in 100%. He has an ideal frame and possesses decent east-west quickness for a bigger back. He can catch the ball and he's an experienced player who can play on all three downs. I know this is becoming a theme with this rookie class, but he can step in right away and probably produce decent numbers as a rookie. Long-term, is he going to last as a starter in the NFL? Is he going to be more than a JAG? His vertical explosiveness is merely average and there's not a lot of "wow" factor to anything he does. As I've commented before, he doesn't run with the reckless abandon of Barkley or Guice and doesn't look like a guy who relishes contact despite having the frame to run with authority. Given where he went in the NFL draft and where he's likely to fall in rookie drafts, I really can't knock the value. He's capable of yielding multiple 1,000 yard rushing seasons. However, I think he's merely a "pretty good" talent and I don't really see him elevating his circumstances.
10. WR Michael Gallup, Cowboys - A bit of a size/speed tweener. He doesn't have great size or speed and is a scrappy possession WR. He will have to fight and claw for every yard because he's not going to run by NFL defenders. Still, he's a reasonably big target with good possession skills and decent overall mobility. You could point towards Hakeem Nicks and Keenan Allen for comparables, though Allen is more athletic and Nicks in his prime was a better version of Gallup. Gallup isn't an elite prospect, but he has the potential to develop into one of the top 2-3 receivers from this class and is possibly the best WR on the Cowboys, which could give him instant value. Not an elite prospect or a sure thing, but he has the potential to be the Michael Thomas/JuJu Smith-Schuster of this draft as a day two pick who outproduces the first round guys.
11. WR Christian Kirk, Cardinals - Short, but solidly built with above average straight line speed. He was a jack-of-all-trades playmaker at Texas A&M, consistently finding a way to make an impact. While he has a reputation as a good athlete, he's more straight-line fast than quick, lacking great route suddenness and open field agility. He's not Randall Cobb or Percy Harvin in space. He's gritty and competitive, and you feel like he'll find a way to stick in the league and contribute. However, he's a somewhat flawed athlete who doesn't look like a great candidate to ever be a team's WR1. To me, he's a high-ish floor, moderate ceiling depth guy in FF who can maybe give you some solid WR2-WR3 seasons if he works out.
12. WR Calvin Ridley, Falcons - He's a snappy route runner with good explosiveness and WR skills. Even in the NFL, his vertical speed will challenge people and create RAC opportunities. However, Ridley lacks any semblance of size or strength and doesn't seem like the type to become a high-volume WR1. He's not going to be a great possession or jump ball WR. If you really want to stretch for an optimistic comparison, you could point towards TY Hilton as a success story from this ilk, but ultimately I think there's a big chance that Ridley becomes a mere complementary piece who never gets enough work to be a reliable FF option. As I've said before, he's closer to Harry Douglas than Julio Jones. Even though he isn't viewed as an elite FF prospect, I'm likely to avoid him at his ADP.
FOURTH TIER
13. TE Hayden Hurst, Ravens - I'm a little surprised by the lack of hype for Hurst in rookie drafts, as he consistently falls below where I think he should be taken. I guess it's the perfect storm of him being an overaged late riser whose opportunity was complicated by the subsequent drafting of Mark Andrews at the same position. For whatever reason, he's often taken a full round below Gesicki and even Goedert even though he was the higher pick and is (IMO) the better prospect. Some of the players in the draft are hard to peg, but I see Hurst as a pretty straightforward projection. While he lacks the dominant TD potential of a Gronk or Graham, he's an exceptional athlete for his size who can terrorize linebackers and safeties over the middle. He has excellent play strength and quickness. Good route runner and dangerous after the catch. Although Gesicki is a better athlete on paper, Hurst is vastly superior in his movement and athleticism on the football field. Look for him to become a solid mid-level TE1 in the mold of Chris Cooley or Owen Daniels. The fact that he's 24 years old is negative because he's a finished product physically and his remaining shelf life is relatively short compared with a typical rookie. I like him more as a prospect than people like Ridley/Freeman/Kirk and I'd take him above them in TE-premium, but you have to account for the fact that TE is a devalued position in most FF leagues.
14. QB Baker Mayfield, Browns - I've invested minimal amounts of time and energy evaluating this QB class, so I'm not going to try to act like the world's foremost expert on this group. Still, from what I've seen, I agree with the Browns in liking Mayfield the most. I like quarterbacks who are fearless and assertive, and those qualities definitely apply to Mayfield. He plays with great confidence and will not be awed by he big moment. He's an accurate passer. He was immensely productive in college, seems to have plenty of arm strength, and adequate instincts/field vision. While not very tall, he has a compact and sturdy frame reminiscent of Russell Wilson, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Matt Stafford. I don't see durability being an issue. With him being a shotgun and spread guy, there will be questions about his ability to translate some of that into the NFL. Also, while he's not a bad athlete, he doesn't have elite ability to escape the rush and will probably take some sacks in the NFL. Still, I like the character and the throwing ability. I haven't seen enough to say he's definitely going to be special, but I think there's a Cutler/Stafford/Favre feel here, and while we can't assume a HoF career, he might actually be better at taking care of the ball than that group.
15. QB Josh Rosen, Cardinals - Rosen was productive at UCLA despite not always having a lot of help and I think he has a lot of the traits needed to be solid in the NFL. He might have the highest floor of any QB in this draft. His accuracy and poise are good. He processes the field quickly and should be strong at the mental aspects of playing QB in the NFL. He is good against the rush and does not wilt in pressure situations. He's a marginal athlete though. Arm strength is not elite. Thin frame with minimal mobility. Durability may be an issue, as he's not built to take a lot of sacks. His personality may rub some people the wrong way. Style-wise, he's in the same ballpark as people like Chad Pennington, Jared Goff, and Tom Brady. Lean and marginal athlete who relies on superior mental game. There's a Pro Bowl ceiling if everything clicks just right, but he's more likely to be a fringe QB1 in FF. However, if you need a solid starter in deeper leagues or 2QB formats, I think he's a pretty good gamble.
16. RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions - It seems like a lazy comparison given his draft spot and team, but he really does remind me of former Lions bust Kevin Smith. Both have solid height-weight on paper, but are leaner backs with a high center of gravity and weak base. Johnson's straight-line explosiveness is fine, but it's not special. He doesn't have great cutting ability or power. With his leaner build and lack of elite avoidance skills, I see him taking a beating in the NFL. I think we're looking at a James Starks type of player. He'll have games where he's startable in FF, but he's not a special back and I don't think he's the long-term answer for the Lions. If I took him in my rookie draft, I'd probably be looking to sell on hype if he manages to make some noise as a rookie.
17. QB Sam Darnold, Jets - Darnold was the second pick in the draft and a lot of the scouting reports I've read were very positive, but I'm not entirely sold on him. He's a tough QB with good production, but I think his accuracy and poise under pressure are not as good as advertised. He is more rattled by pressure than Rosen or Mayfield and will float passes into dangerous territory. He was a turnover machine in 2017, throwing too many interceptions and fumbling too much. His mechanics are bad, with a long wind-up. Overall, I think he looks like more of a bust risk than Mayfield and Rosen, but I still respect the high draft slot and that's why he's not lower on this list.
FIFTH TIER
18. QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens - Elite athlete for a QB, with size, speed, and elusiveness. He has elite rushing ability and is mobile in the pocket. Arm strength looks pretty good, but his accuracy can be inconsistent and he's prone to floating intermediate passes. Awareness of the pass rush and poise under pressure are two areas of varying concern, as he sometimes locks onto his main read. While the rushing tools are nice, QBs in the NFL ultimately live and die based mostly on their throwing ability. Jackson isn't a terrible passer, but he's not great either. The overall package is highly reminiscent of Colin Kaepernick. Both have standout physical traits combined with solid arm strength, but just okay passing instincts and accuracy. It's pretty common for run-heavy QBs to flash early before falling off once teams learn how to play them (Vick, Young, and Kaepernick all followed this pattern). I would expect a similar trajectory for Jackson, meaning an early splash within the first year or two followed by regression to mediocrity. At that point whether or not he sticks as a starter will depend on his ability to improve. There's a pretty good ceiling here for FF leagues, but he's not that likely to hit it.
19. RB Chase Edmonds, Cardinals - Every year there are one or two day three prospects who become personal favorites. Edmonds is one of those guys for me this year. At 5'9" 205 with 4.55 speed in the 40, he's a little bit borderline from a height/weight/speed standpoint, lacking either the 220+ pound frame or the elite straight-line explosiveness to project as an obvious starter. There's a pretty big risk that he'll top out as a backup in the NFL and will never get a large enough role to be FF relevant. With all that said, I really like his game. Although not a huge back, his distribution of weight is ideal, with a strong trunk and running base. He's not a thumper like Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew, but he can play a little bit stronger than his measurables alone would indicate. His best quality is probably his elite cutting ability and lateral movement. Edmonds is one of the more elusive backs in this draft, having exceptional balance and hips to string together multiple moves. He is a perfectly clean and efficient runner. There's a sneaky Brian Westbrook/Ray Rice type of potential here. If he were a little more juiced from a size and/or speed standpoint then I'd say he's an elite prospect, but as I said there's a chance he's just not either big or fast enough to really thrive in the NFL. Still, I like him enough to take a chance on him in the third round of a rookie draft. A worthy stash at his currently low ADP.
20. RB Kalen Ballage, Dolphins - I like him more than most of the day three backs. He has some size, versatility, and straight-line speed. He should stick on a roster and can contribute in spurts. Kind of a poor man's Alvin Kamara. Don't expect the world, but if Drake falters, Ballage could be playable as a rookie. Low YPC in college is a bit of a concern, but may be partially down to usage/system. Ultimately, not a can't-miss talent, but any RB with three down potential is worth a lottery ticket at a certain point.
21. TE Mark Andrews, Ravens - Andrews caught my eye in his RS freshman season at Oklahoma with a number of splash plays. He continued to build on that over the course of his college career and set new statistical highs across the board last season as a junior. He's a quality pass-catching talent, but not an elite prospect. While Andrews possesses sneaky athleticism and an ideal frame, the added bulk seems to have cost him some of the explosiveness and mobility that he had earlier in his college career. He has good straight line speed for such a big target, but rounds off his routes and may struggle to separate against some NFL defenders. He's big with soft hands and good red zone potential. The way I see it, Hayden Hurst will be a better TE between the 20s, but Andrews may be the better red zone TE. Hurst is the better pure athlete, but both have the potential to be useful FF TEs. Andrews does remind me a little bit of Gronk with his size and lumbering mobility.
22. RB Mark Walton, Bengals - Borderline workout numbers. He plays with more strength and speed than his workout numbers would indicate though. He's a one-cut-and-go north-south runner who has the talent to thrive in spot duty. Is he really a long-term starter in the NFL though? Probably not, and with him stuck behind Mixon, you may be waiting a while for payoff that's not guaranteed.
23. TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles - Average is the word that comes to mind when I think of Goedert. It's impressive that a small school guy was able to get picked so high, but I don't see special traits. His mobility and route running will not be elite at the NFL level. In a best case scenario, I can see him becoming a steady, yet unspectacular option like Heath Miller. I'm likely to avoid him at his rookie ADP though, as I think there are better options.
24. QB Josh Allen, Bills - Ideal frame. Elite arm strength. Can zing the ball all over the field. Accuracy and touch are all over the place. Wasn't a very productive college player despite playing in a small conference. Not a statue, but not very mobile either. He's more of a "tools" guy than a finished product, and I'm always leery of that when it comes to QBs. If you didn't dominate in college, it's not going to get any easier in the NFL. More likely than not to be a bust, due to his suspect accuracy and instincts. If he polishes the edges, the pure throwing ability can be elite, but I don't think that's going to happen.
OTHERS:
RB Boston Scott, Saints - Straight-line banger packed into a short frame. Explosive. People will compare him to Sproles because of the height and team, but he's not elusive. He's a power runner trapped in a short body. Interesting roster stash, but he's probably just a bit player in the NFL.
RB Nyheim Hines, Colts - Probably JAG in the NFL. Good athlete. No play strength. He's a committee back and not a special one.
WR Keke Coutee, Texans - Good athlete, but little. Explosive deep speed. Poor man's TY Hilton.
WR James Washington, Steelers - One trick pony deep threat. I don't think he'll do enough besides that to have consistent value.
WR Anthony Miller, Bears - Explosive complementary guy. I don't see any real potential for volume or useful FF stats.
WR TreQuan Smith, Saints - Tall and lean with good measurable athleticism, but average football athleticism. An Aaron Dobson type. Overdrafted by a couple rounds IMO.
WR DJ Chark, Jaguars - Little and fast. I don't think he's more than a situational deep threat in the NFL.
WR Dante Pettis, 49ers - Overdrafted because of his return skills. A modest talent at WR. Absolute ceiling would be a #2 for his team, but even that seems unlikely.
WR J'Mon Moore, Packers - A tall and smooth athlete. Nice vertical ability. He's a one speed player though and could struggle to consistently separate. Worth a roster spot.
WR Jaleel Scott, Ravens - Tall and deceptively athletic. Good jump ball potential. Slow off the line. Builds speed. Worth a waiver claim, but don't go crazy.
TE Ian Thomas, Panthers - Modest foot quickness and route running ability, but he's a good straight line speed/size combination. It's going to take a couple years, but he has the upside to develop into a low end FF TE1. Not too exciting if you aren't involved in TE premium leagues, but he's a good value selection at his ADP.
TE Mike Gesicki, Dolphins - Seam threat and red zone target. Good straight-line explosiveness, but lacks base strength and is a limited route runner. Overrated.
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