TripItUp
Footballguy
They are a great vehicle for discussion. Even though I disagree with them I appreciate the discussion they generate.
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Travdogg's positional rankings offseason edition (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter travdogg
- Start date
They are a great vehicle for discussion. Even though I disagree with them I appreciate the discussion they generate.
There is a scenario where Moss is a solid RB2, if he becomes a workhorse like Mixon was. However, I'm thinking this backfield is going to be more like Pittsburgh or Washington (only with less run commitment) and Moss is in pretty close to a 50-50 RBBC.
I think Chase Brown plays a very big role in Cincinnati. I think he's a better pass catcher than Moss, and he's also more explosive, though probably less of a tackle breaker. The Bengals OL is a lot worse than the Colts OL is.
Ultimately my projections are:
Moss:
160 carries
700 yards
4.4 YPC
5 rush TDs
30 catches
200 yards
6.7 YPR
2 TD catches
Brown:
140 carries
600 yards
4.3 YPC (more boom/bust than Moss)
5 rush TDs
40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches
I have both Moss and Brown in the mid 30s and prefer Brown slightly at ADP.
A list of guys I've ended up with most often in drafts:
QB
Josh Allen, nobody seems to want to be the one the breaks the seal so to speak. Routinely there in round 3, and occasionally round 4.
Dak Prescott, pretty much my wait at QB target. A couple times he's gone in a QB run in round 6 but is typically there in round 8.
Deshaun Watson, I loathe him, but IF he can stay healthy, he's a solid QB2 with spike week upside. He would have been QB16 for me, and he's making it to like round 13.
Geno Smith, its possible he is being vastly underrated if Ryan Grubb is as pass heavy a playcaller as he was at Washington. For a round 14 flier you could do a lot worse.
RB
Joe Mixon, he's all over the place. I've gotten him as late as round 6, but he's occasionally gone more where I think he should, which is around the 3/4 turn.
Travis Etienne, I don't feel particularly high on him, but he makes it around to me a lot. A round 4 target (Mixon always falls past him) who rarely makes his way into the 3/4 turn.
Aaron Jones, another guy all over the map. I've gotten him in round 7 on many occasions, I think he should be going 2 round higher than that.
Zamir White, I completely understand people not being excited about the Raiders offense, but he's a potential 250+ touch guy, going in round 8.
Gus Edwards, boring option, but his competition is the most injury plagued RB in the NFL, and a day 3 pick, on a team that wants to run the ball. As a round 10 pick, could do a lot worse. Nothing stopping him from 200+ carries.
Austin Ekeler, I've been really surprised how late he's going. I know last year was rough (I had him on multiple teams) but its still possible the ankle was never really right, and its not like anyone outperformed him on the team. He's not gonna have the monster reception totals he used to, but I think some big plays (and TDs) could bounce back. He's going in round 11, as an RB4 for me. That price is very palatable.
Chuba Hubbard, quietly been pretty solid the last 2 seasons, especially when factoring in how bad the offense was last year. With Brooks coming off a torn ACL, I think Carolina eases him in, and Hubbard likely begins the season as the starter. A guy who could see 200 touches in round 14, as an RB5, I'm on board.
JK Dobbins, don't trust him to stay healthy at all, but he's an easy cut if he gets hurt, and he's the most talented RB on the Chargers. I don't mind him in round 15, especially pairing him and Gus up as an RB4 and an RB6.
WR
Ja'Marr Chase, another guy I don't think I'm all that high on. Maybe people are expecting him to holdout and be out of shape or something, because he shouldn't be making it out of the top-5.
Puka Nacua, I like him more by the day. I think there is a bit of a sophomore slump expectation (or people think Stafford goes down?) because he's been pretty much a round 2 lock any time I don't have a top-5 pick. Can argue he should be a top-10 pick.
Deebo Samuel, makes it to round 3 pretty consistently. I'm honestly at a loss why Aiyuk is going a round ahead of him.
George Pickens, people are starting to catch on a little. He's not making it out of round 5 anymore. Ideal WR3 target.
Tank Dell, cheapest access to the Texans passing game, and I'd argue the one with the highest ceiling. Going a round after Diggs, and 2 after Collins.
Christian Watson, maybe he's fixed his hamstring issues? We know he's explosive, in a good offense, and could be the Packers #1. I don't hate him as a round 7 risk/reward pick, especially as you can follow him up with a safer option like Lockett in round 8 or 9.
Brandin Cooks, stopped being exciting a while back, but he's in a great passing offense, with a pretty clear path to 100 targets. With a round 11 price tag, why not? Could also have a huge value boost if Lamb or Ferguson go down.
Darnell Mooney, looked awful last season, but Falcons contract implies they think that was a fluke. Gets a big QB upgrade, moves indoors, and Cousins has made ancillary guys valuable before. In round 13, he's a worthy flier, and a London or Pitts injury away from being very interesting.
Adam Thielen, yeah he's old, yes the Panthers brought in a solid vet and rookie 1st rounder, but its still very possible he's Bryce Young's favorite target. Another round 13/14 guy who is boring, but has a path to exceed expectations.
Michael Wilson, showed some ability when he was on the field last year, and should see very favorable coverage with Harrison on board. I think he beats out Zay Jones for the #2 job, and while its technically the #3 role (McBride) in round 14/15 could do worse, especially if McBride takes a step back, or Harrison starts slower than expected, or Kyler outperforms expectations. Lots of potential avenues for the 2nd year WR.
TE
Travis Kelce, maybe people are sick of hearing about his girlfriend or something. Pretty consistently available in round 4. Consistently going after LaPorta, which feels very premature to me.
Kyle Pitts, pretty much my fallback if I miss out on Kelce/Andrews. Routinely available in round 7, and probably would make it to round 8 if I didn't keep taking him.
Tyler Conklin, I still kinda wish the Jets had taken Bowers, but they didn't. Conklin is a boring option, but Aaron Rodgers has gotten some decent years from worse. 50-500 feels very doable, and while I doubt he has a TD spike year, I'm 100% confident he won't have 0 like he did a year ago. A useable TE2 you can get in round 14/15.
Taysom Hill, better in best ball, and probably doesn't count as a TE in some leagues. But in leagues he does, he's basically free, going in the Def/K range. Maybe a new OC doesn't use him like the old one did, but then why is he still on the roster? I've ended a lot of drafts taking Hill in round 17 as a TE2 or TE3.
QB
Josh Allen, nobody seems to want to be the one the breaks the seal so to speak. Routinely there in round 3, and occasionally round 4.
Dak Prescott, pretty much my wait at QB target. A couple times he's gone in a QB run in round 6 but is typically there in round 8.
Deshaun Watson, I loathe him, but IF he can stay healthy, he's a solid QB2 with spike week upside. He would have been QB16 for me, and he's making it to like round 13.
Geno Smith, its possible he is being vastly underrated if Ryan Grubb is as pass heavy a playcaller as he was at Washington. For a round 14 flier you could do a lot worse.
RB
Joe Mixon, he's all over the place. I've gotten him as late as round 6, but he's occasionally gone more where I think he should, which is around the 3/4 turn.
Travis Etienne, I don't feel particularly high on him, but he makes it around to me a lot. A round 4 target (Mixon always falls past him) who rarely makes his way into the 3/4 turn.
Aaron Jones, another guy all over the map. I've gotten him in round 7 on many occasions, I think he should be going 2 round higher than that.
Zamir White, I completely understand people not being excited about the Raiders offense, but he's a potential 250+ touch guy, going in round 8.
Gus Edwards, boring option, but his competition is the most injury plagued RB in the NFL, and a day 3 pick, on a team that wants to run the ball. As a round 10 pick, could do a lot worse. Nothing stopping him from 200+ carries.
Austin Ekeler, I've been really surprised how late he's going. I know last year was rough (I had him on multiple teams) but its still possible the ankle was never really right, and its not like anyone outperformed him on the team. He's not gonna have the monster reception totals he used to, but I think some big plays (and TDs) could bounce back. He's going in round 11, as an RB4 for me. That price is very palatable.
Chuba Hubbard, quietly been pretty solid the last 2 seasons, especially when factoring in how bad the offense was last year. With Brooks coming off a torn ACL, I think Carolina eases him in, and Hubbard likely begins the season as the starter. A guy who could see 200 touches in round 14, as an RB5, I'm on board.
JK Dobbins, don't trust him to stay healthy at all, but he's an easy cut if he gets hurt, and he's the most talented RB on the Chargers. I don't mind him in round 15, especially pairing him and Gus up as an RB4 and an RB6.
WR
Ja'Marr Chase, another guy I don't think I'm all that high on. Maybe people are expecting him to holdout and be out of shape or something, because he shouldn't be making it out of the top-5.
Puka Nacua, I like him more by the day. I think there is a bit of a sophomore slump expectation (or people think Stafford goes down?) because he's been pretty much a round 2 lock any time I don't have a top-5 pick. Can argue he should be a top-10 pick.
Deebo Samuel, makes it to round 3 pretty consistently. I'm honestly at a loss why Aiyuk is going a round ahead of him.
George Pickens, people are starting to catch on a little. He's not making it out of round 5 anymore. Ideal WR3 target.
Tank Dell, cheapest access to the Texans passing game, and I'd argue the one with the highest ceiling. Going a round after Diggs, and 2 after Collins.
Christian Watson, maybe he's fixed his hamstring issues? We know he's explosive, in a good offense, and could be the Packers #1. I don't hate him as a round 7 risk/reward pick, especially as you can follow him up with a safer option like Lockett in round 8 or 9.
Brandin Cooks, stopped being exciting a while back, but he's in a great passing offense, with a pretty clear path to 100 targets. With a round 11 price tag, why not? Could also have a huge value boost if Lamb or Ferguson go down.
Darnell Mooney, looked awful last season, but Falcons contract implies they think that was a fluke. Gets a big QB upgrade, moves indoors, and Cousins has made ancillary guys valuable before. In round 13, he's a worthy flier, and a London or Pitts injury away from being very interesting.
Adam Thielen, yeah he's old, yes the Panthers brought in a solid vet and rookie 1st rounder, but its still very possible he's Bryce Young's favorite target. Another round 13/14 guy who is boring, but has a path to exceed expectations.
Michael Wilson, showed some ability when he was on the field last year, and should see very favorable coverage with Harrison on board. I think he beats out Zay Jones for the #2 job, and while its technically the #3 role (McBride) in round 14/15 could do worse, especially if McBride takes a step back, or Harrison starts slower than expected, or Kyler outperforms expectations. Lots of potential avenues for the 2nd year WR.
TE
Travis Kelce, maybe people are sick of hearing about his girlfriend or something. Pretty consistently available in round 4. Consistently going after LaPorta, which feels very premature to me.
Kyle Pitts, pretty much my fallback if I miss out on Kelce/Andrews. Routinely available in round 7, and probably would make it to round 8 if I didn't keep taking him.
Tyler Conklin, I still kinda wish the Jets had taken Bowers, but they didn't. Conklin is a boring option, but Aaron Rodgers has gotten some decent years from worse. 50-500 feels very doable, and while I doubt he has a TD spike year, I'm 100% confident he won't have 0 like he did a year ago. A useable TE2 you can get in round 14/15.
Taysom Hill, better in best ball, and probably doesn't count as a TE in some leagues. But in leagues he does, he's basically free, going in the Def/K range. Maybe a new OC doesn't use him like the old one did, but then why is he still on the roster? I've ended a lot of drafts taking Hill in round 17 as a TE2 or TE3.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I'll be VERY interested in how QB shakes out this year. The wait on QB strategy could get extreme this year especially since Brock Purdy and Jordan Love made the juice worth the squeeze last year. Even guys like Baker Mayfield and Joe Friggin' Flacco made the wait for QB guys look like geniuses.
Ekeler is another guy who all of a sudden is radioactive where there is a possibility he simply wasn't physically right last year. He doesn't have a lot of miles on him and we all know he's a fitness freak so I can't think that he isn't exhausting himself trying to get back to 2020-2022 form.
I know GB has alot of young pass catches, but Watson has played 1013 NFL snaps. He has 14 TD's. Ironically I was higher on Pickens (over Watson) last year, but I'll be staying away this year as I hated the way he comported himself last year.
Taysom - 692 YFS (10th)/6 TD (2nd) last year. Just saying
I also hated a lot of how Pickens carried himself, but in his defense, I can see how it can be frustrating to play with the league's worst OC, and a QB who was constantly ignoring him. Perhaps I am forgetting something, but it seemed those problems didn't exist in the last few weeks when Canada was fired and Pickett was benched. We'll see how Russ/Fields does at keeping him happy, but I can't imagine it will be worse.
I go back and forth on the waiting for QB idea. I love guys like Purdy and Tua in round 10+, or Dak when he makes it to the 8th, but there is certainly some major appeal in getting a huge edge like Allen or Hurts in round 4.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Last year, David Njoku was TE6. His production? 81/882/6
Generally, a TE is a supporting component in the passing game. Save for your elites like Kelce, Andrews, maybe LaPorta now, and those before them like Gates, Gonzo, Graham.
Bowers took no time to adjust to the college game putting up 56/882/13 his freshman year and with a QB in Stetson Bennett who had absolutely no pedigree at the time.
The point I'm making is that missing at the TE position doesn't have much downside. You can generally piece together a strategy at the position. But Bowers, the first pick of a new regime has 32 year old Davante Adams and Jakobi Myers to compete for targets with.
While not a prediction, there is upside here at a position that once you get to TE 6/7 generally has low ceilings.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Kyler Murray is my target is just about every draft this year. He's going stupid-low in all the mocks I've seen.
Of course I'll leave the door open if Allen or Hurts drops way below adp, but I don't see that happening.
Of course I'll leave the door open if Allen or Hurts drops way below adp, but I don't see that happening.
