Redraft Strategy (1 Viewer)

[BigJim®]

In advance: I realize there are other discussion threads, and I don't intend this to be a new discussion thread. However, based on what I'm seeing in the "recent drafts" thread started by Challenge Everything, I am curious about the SP's redraft strategies for these players as I'm preparing for my own redraft. In short, DeAngelo is being drafted from the 4th-11th rounds, and Stewart ranged from being drafted from the 3rd (twice) to going completely undrafted through 14 rounds [likely a mistake?]. Further, looks like there is no consistency as to which is being drafted first; in a 40% of this small sample they were drafted within a round of eachother. I'd like some aggregated SP info to make sense of this situation; i.e. are only an isolated few targetting/reaching for one of these players, or are a significant number of SPers targetting these players early? Also, I'd like to get a sense of how many might be targetting both or neither in advance of a draft.

Here were the drafts in CE's thread:

Draft 1

Williams 53

Stewart 70

Draft 2

Williams 60

Stewart 41

Draft 3

Williams 119

Stewart 88

Draft 4

Williams 66

Stewart 55

Draft 5

Williams 92

Stewart 87

Draft 6

Williams 106

Stewart 82

Draft 7

Williams 50

Stewart Undrafted

Draft 8

Williams 80

Stewart 72

Draft 9

Williams 100

Stewart 52

Draft 10

Williams 69

Stewart 32

Draft 11

Williams 87

Stewart 80

Draft 12

Williams 70

Stewart 66

Draft 13

Williams 51

Stewart 80

Based on these results, it appears Stewart went first in 10/13 drafts and had a better ADP (67.08 for the 12 drafts I'm including), although he seems to be a bigger "reach" risk if you are targetting him at the 67 ADP since he went twice in the 3rd round. DeAngelo went 1st in just 3/13 drafts and had an ADP of 77.15 in the 13 drafts, but went 60 or eailier 31% of the time.

 

[TheWick]

I'm not sure what to make of this situation. It seems a 50/50 split is likely and the only way either has serious value would be due to an injury to the other. However with how good the O-Line has looked in the preseason they are tempting. I would lean towards both or just Stewart. But like you showed in your post its hard to know when to get them.

 

[davearm]

I like Williams beginning in the 8th round of a 12-teamer. That's about one round later than what you list as his ADP.

Stewart looks very overpriced to me, considering John Fox's historical usage pattern of veterans over rookies.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I think this is good opportunity for a handcuff on a late in the round/early on the turn pair of picks.

If you can get the pair of them as your RB3/4 I think you will be doing fine. As things are shaping up, the O-line looks much better and both guys could each have solid RB3 value absent an injury. If you grab both and one does get hurt, I think you could easily get low-RB1/high-RB2 production over those games which could trump the RB2 you drafted.

 

[bolldpt]

i agree with davearm. I got DeWill in the 8th round. as my 4th RB thats gravy. Great OL and I think Fox is gonna run run run early in the season to minimize affect of Smith gone for a few games and not loading up on Delhommes elbow. So even if it is a RBBC, which im sure it will be, could be pts to go around. And last preseason game DeWill would have had 2 TDs if he didnt fumble on that one run where Smith picked it up and ran it in.

 

[BigRed]

I'm surprised Dwill goes before JStew apparently all the time given how many people rave about JStew and rip on Dwill esp since SSmit is out for a bit and either he or JDel is bound to get injured again, IMO.

Anyway I will avoid both, as it's a coin flip as to which emerges or when (even if) it happens.

 

[BigJim®]

Thanks for the votes so far. There seems to be some "DeAngelo/Bargain" sentiment and that makes sense to me given the price one would need to pay for Stewart.

As mentioned in the discussion thread for Stewart vs. Williams, I had initially hoped to take one of these guys late in the 6th and serpentine back to the other at the top of the 7th. IMHO that would be a tremendous coup for a RB3, as there is a good likelihood one of these guys could emerge as a top 10 RB. However, it is looking as if one would need to reach for one in the 4th, and serpentine back to the other near the top of the 5th. That would mean [for example]:

1.4 RB

2.9 WR

3.4 WR

4.9 DW/JS (reach)

5.4 DW/JS (reach)

This seems like a steep price to pay for a RBBC, but I'm considering it. I'm no longer encouraged that getting these guys in the 6th-7th is a possibility based on these recent drafts, and after Saturday's game. There's probably no way you could hope to get both given the array of valuations people have. Based on the frequency one goes in close proximity to the other, I think it's possible people are waiting for the first guy to go and then jumping on the 2nd. If Stewart goes in the 3rd-4th of my draft, that guy had better reach for DeAngelo also as I will hope to get DeAngelo in the 5th-6th.

 

[Pats Mule]

I voted "Neither player, this will be RBBC hell" - objectively I can see this being a RBBC. I went into the draft with this thinking, and despite this I still drafted both players for my RB3 and RB4. We start 2 RBs

I drafted Stewart at 7.10 and DeAngelo at 8.03

I'm hoping someone will emerge as a starter and get the majority of the carries. I don't plan to use one of these backs as a starter for now but I decided on the handcuff for insurance.

 

[BigJim®]

I drafted Stewart at 7.10 and DeAngelo at 8.03

This would be ideal. I'd be ecstatic if I could do this.