Redraft Tiers and Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

LB Post 1

DE/DT Post 36

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Tiers will be transferred to our rankings pages in the next few days, but I wanted to throw these out for discussion, argument and refinement before then. Have at 'em.LB1

P Posluszny, P Willis, J Mayo, J Laurinaitis, L Timmons, J Beason

Timmons and Beason have a lower floor than my top four, but their upside (95+ solos and a handful of big plays) earn them a spot in my top tier.

LB2+

D Ryans, S Tulloch, D Bishop, C Lofton, DJ Williams, B Ruud, D Johnson, D Levy

Tulloch and Ruud are unknowns, but I think it’s reasonable to assume that they land in good spots for now. The most striking thing about this tier right now is that it’s really thin. Ordinarily, I’ll have 2-4 players in this tier that are 5-15 spots higher than the consensus and argue that you can slough the linebacker position through about 10-15 players and 3-4 draft rounds and lose very little to your competition.

This year, unless you think you’ll be able to grab Bishop in the LB12-20 range, those names are in the next two tiers. I’d expect to see a couple candidates move up from the LB2/LB3+ tiers by late August, so it’s probably not a huge deal. But it’s worth noting anyway.

LB2

R McClain, K Dansby, B Urlacher, R Lewis, C Greenway, L Fletcher, J Vilma, B Cushing

I expect this tier (my LB13-21) will generate some discussion and argument.

LB3+

T Davis, P Lenon, L Briggs, DQ Jackson, N Irving, D Ware, C Matthews, C Wake, T Hali, J Harrison, C Session, S Weatherspoon, D Harris, D Washington, J Chaney, D Hawthorne, C McCarthy, J Mouton, M Foster, B Orakpo, D Smith, C Gocong, K Morrison, P Riley, B Siler/D Butler

25 players (including one two player hedge) in this monster tier. Things will even out as the summer progresses, with 2-4 guys moving into the LB2+/LB2 tiers and a handful dropping out of the top 40 altogether. Balanced leaguers who like a big play OLB as their LB2 should bump the five rush LB studs into their LB2 tier.

LB3

D Jones, G Brackett, EJ Henderson, J Farrior

Not much upside with these four, but a solid 80-85 solo tackle floor with some weekly upside.

Matchup LB4

L Woodley, S Phillips, Ma Williams, R Maualuga, J Anderson, P Angerer, M Boley, S Lee, Gn Hayes, B James, B Spikes, T Spikes, AJ Hawk, K Brooking, L Tatupu, S Bradley, W Witherspoon, Q Black, K Burnett, S Cooper, A Davis, A Curry, M Wilson, R Allen, K Rivers, A Ayers, V Miller, K Misi, S Nicholas, J Durant, AJ Edds, G Jones, E Sims, K Bulluck

I have high hopes for a few of these guys. They’re loosely broken into trustworthy rush OLBs, high upside backers with a shot at a very favorable role, semi-inspiring vets with strong single game potential and a few longshots who could surprise and make a run into the top 40.

Matchup LB3 Big Play Only

C Pace, K Wimbley, Al Smith, M Roth, J Cunningham, OB Schofield, C Barwin, C Kelsay

OLB group who won’t tackle well enough or rush the passer consistently enough to trust as LB3 in most weeks, but have enough talent to consider against strong matchups. For now, none would crack the top 50 in balanced and tackle-heavy leagues.

 

[Bdub]

I really think Washington belongs in the LB2 tier. I'm guessing that he'll work his way up your chart when things start happening this summer.

Nothing but old competition, and with Hayes out of the starting lineup as of the end of the 2010 season, he should be a tackle machine. Maybe not a ton of big plays, but isn't a 85 to 90 solo tackle season pretty reasonable if he's a full time starter this year?

Unless he just sucks in camp this summer, the job is his, right?

 

[PranksterJD]

DeAndre Levy?

 

[Jene Bramel]

I really think Washington belongs in the LB2 tier. I'm guessing that he'll work his way up your chart when things start happening this summer. Nothing but old competition, and with Hayes out of the starting lineup as of the end of the 2010 season, he should be a tackle machine. Maybe not a ton of big plays, but isn't a 85 to 90 solo tackle season pretty reasonable if he's a full time starter this year?Unless he just sucks in camp this summer, the job is his, right?

Washington is absolutely starting this year. But until we see otherwise, I think we have to assume that Paris Lenon plays in the nickel and that the Cardinals continue to play a 3-3-5 nickel without a second ILB. Washington is stuck in the 70-80 solo tackle range in that scenario. If Washington plays every down, he's a LB2+ for me. Those confident that he'll play every-down over Lenon on opening weekend should prioritize grabbing him in the LB20-25 range to ensure they get him. I'm not ready to do that today.

DeAndre Levy?

Yep. Added to the end of the LB2+ tier. Thanks.

 

[tonka]

Can you talk a bit about why you have Demeco Ryans so high?

 

[matttyl]

Can you talk a bit about why you have Demeco Ryans so high?

And Levy....Asking as a guy who kept an injured Ryans on my team all last year, and had to drop Levy to make the room to do it.

 

[cheese]

Can you educate me for a second on the Broncos' LB situation? Can Williams and Irving really both put up the numbers to justify those rankings at the same time?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Can you talk a bit about why you have Demeco Ryans so high?

The durability issues worry me, but Ryans has been a 95+ solo performer when healthy. I think he'll get a similar (and possibly more) number of pass rush opportunity with Phillips. And the Phillips' WILB position is one of the most favorable IDP spots for tackle production. Despite a strong offensive season, Houston's tackle opportunity was still above-average last year.It's admittedly a risky bet and factors in my expectation that he'll recover fully from the Achilles' injury, but I think Ryans again has 95 solo potential in 2011. I gave him a razor-thin nod over Tulloch (2011 team and role unclear) and Bishop (small chance he sits in subpackages) for now.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Can you talk a bit about why you have Demeco Ryans so high?

And Levy....Asking as a guy who kept an injured Ryans on my team all last year, and had to drop Levy to make the room to do it.

The Lions seem to have backed off their earlier comments that they were actively looking to add a linebacker that could bump Levy outside, noting that he performed better there as the season progressed and his injuries hindered him less. Though this year's draft class was relatively thin on every-down OLB prospects, they didn't look to address the position until very late in the draft.Unless and until the Lions get a guy like Tulloch or Ruud to sign a contract, Levy has to be considered a potential stud every-down middle linebacker on a team with a weak surrounding cast and likely to see at least average opportunity.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Can you educate me for a second on the Broncos' LB situation? Can Williams and Irving really both put up the numbers to justify those rankings at the same time?

Tackle opportunity is the equivalent of targets and touches for offensive players. Some offenses will support top tier touches for more than one offensive player, sometimes at the same position. Some defenses will do the same.I like the think of the back seven as a triangle. I'll generally project three back seven players to get the bulk of the tackles. It might be LB/LB/CB (e.g. Carolina in recent years), it might be LB/S/S (as I did with Miami when Bell and Wilson were playing safety). An average tackle opportunity season usually yields around 800 tackle chances and stat crews have awarded around 850 solos per team per year over the past three years. A average to slightly above-average every-down linebacker with an average supporting cast usually handles 11-12% of his team's solo tackles, putting him in range for 85-90 solos as a baseline before factoring in upside.None of that answers the specific question, but that's where I'm coming from when projecting tackle numbers.Denver is moving to a 4-3. I'm not sure they're ready to stop the run consistently (questionable front four and a poor fit at SLB) and I have concerns about their ability to move the ball consistently. I think that leads to above-average tackle opportunity. In the DEN triangle, I think the best chances for consistent tackle opportunity will be the every-down linebacker(s) and strong safety. My read of the Broncos' offseason moves and comments is that Williams will be the every-down WLB, Irving the every-down MLB and some mix of Dawkins and Carter at the SS position. I don't think Dawkins/Carter run up tackles unless the MLB (Irving, or less likely Mays) is a complete non-factor in the middle. I think Williams is a safe bet for 82-88 solos (my LB2 cutoff) but I'm always reluctant to push a 4-3 OLB into the 90-95+ range. Irving's prospects are similar; his tier factors in a concern that he'll not start in the middle, not play in subpackages or not play to the upside on his scouting report. If Irving looks fluid in training camp and plays in the nickel, I'll likely push Williams down a few slots in the LB2 tier and put Irving in the LB2+ range.But I definitely think that back seven and the expected opportunity supports two top 25 linebackers this year.

 

[HPD]

I take you see Ray Lewis' and London Fletcher's age catching up with them in dropping them to LB2. Do you see Dansby putting up better numbers his second year in Miami?

 

[Jene Bramel]

I take you see Ray Lewis' and London Fletcher's age catching up with them in dropping them to LB2.

Fletcher didn't look like the same player to me last year. The range in run pursuit and depth in his pass drops weren't there, he didn't shed blocks as well. His experience and instincts allowed him to overcome those issues, but I think the tackle opportunity and relative weakness of the front seven kept him afloat. i think the drop to 87 solos is a trend that continues. I don't think he has a high percentage chance at 95 solos or 6 FF/FR and double digit PDs this year. Still solidly in my top 20, just no longer a threat to crack the top tier.Lewis is a tougher call. Given the lack of tackle opportunity in that defense, his last two seasons have been really special. And the front seven didn't get much better. The triangle I noted earlier -- with a wasteland of sorts at the other ILB spot and a big question mark at safety if Landry leaves -- continues to be ugly. For now, I like Urlacher a little better (along with a small handful of others), but I agree that it's close.

Do you see Dansby putting up better numbers his second year in Miami?

Dansby was on a 94 solo tackle pace through eight games despite starting slowly and had just started to hit his stride when the toe injuries killed him over the final month and a half. He looked a half step slow at times, but still filled the hole well and had reasonable range from the ILB spot. The LB2 slot is a hedge. If he looks smooth and quick in the preseason, I'll make him a LB2+ again. If not, I'll likely drop him into the LB3 range.

 

[BearsFan]

Why do you think D Harris should be in the LB3+ tier?

I'd think he'd have an LB2 floor, especially with his playoff performances last season.

 

[JoeSteeler]

:sehorn:

 

[The Man With No Name]

I hope you are right about McClain getting all the way up into to the top 22. I know there have been lb's that have improved greatly from rookies to year two.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Why do you think D Harris should be in the LB3+ tier?I'd think he'd have an LB2 floor, especially with his playoff performances last season.

The tackles just haven't been there consistently. The playoff run was impressive, but he's been a 5 solo/gm player since the second half of his rookie season. I like him a lot, but his range is limited as are his coverage skills. He's different than Lofa Tatupu, but his fantasy status is following a similar curve. His big plays should earn him consideration closer to the LB2 tier, though, so he's probably underrated above.

 

[BearsFan]

No Goff or Dillard, but Greg Jones as a matchup LB4?

 

[Jene Bramel]

No Goff or Dillard, but Greg Jones as a matchup LB4?

After watching Goff play for a full season, I don't think he's productive enough to put alongside other base defense only ILBs. He had just three games with more than five solos last year and only one with more than six. He has just two sacks, one FF, one FR and one INT in his career. I'm looking for LB2 upside in a matchup LB4 and I don't see it in Goff. Dillard is still on the watch list, but I don't think he's likely to start any time soon and I liked Jones scouting reports better.My general philosophy is to avoid replacement level production and err on the side of upside. Jones, maybe only because he's not taken a snap to prove otherwise yet, still has a chance to prove that he can become an every-down player or have the range and impact talent on base downs that Goff hasn't shown yet. While he's clearly an extreme 2011 longshot, he's worth a flyer in the LB50-60 range if you're solid at your LB1-LB4 spots and you're shut out of your other upside options. You can always dump him for a replacement level option if he shows nothing.

 

[pyite76]

No Goff or Dillard, but Greg Jones as a matchup LB4?

Sounds like Jene thinks Jones will take that job, no?

 

[Crippler]

No Goff or Dillard, but Greg Jones as a matchup LB4?

After watching Goff play for a full season, I don't think he's productive enough to put alongside other base defense only ILBs. He had just three games with more than five solos last year and only one with more than six. He has just two sacks, one FF, one FR and one INT in his career. I'm looking for LB2 upside in a matchup LB4 and I don't see it in Goff. Dillard is still on the watch list, but I don't think he's likely to start any time soon and I liked Jones scouting reports better.My general philosophy is to avoid replacement level production and err on the side of upside. Jones, maybe only because he's not taken a snap to prove otherwise yet, still has a chance to prove that he can become an every-down player or have the range and impact talent on base downs that Goff hasn't shown yet. While he's clearly an extreme 2011 longshot, he's worth a flyer in the LB50-60 range if you're solid at your LB1-LB4 spots and you're shut out of your other upside options. You can always dump him for a replacement level option if he shows nothing.

I heard a rumor on NFL Network the other day, that probably none of these guys will be the Giants MLB and that it will be taken care of in FA. Nick Barnett was a guy whose name came up. There is one name not on this list, that will have a starting job and be a good fantasy producer if we have a season. He either knocks Hawk to the sideline or will make a splash as rumored here. If we did a draft today, he would be a huge target from guys not on this list as a SOD. Recovery is going well.

 

[Crippler]

Other observations

I dont see Irving impacting DJ Williams all that much. I put Williams still in tier 2.

Tulloch is a guy who might not be back in Tennessee and way to risky to put in tier 2. He is not all that talented either. Way overdrafted here

Levy is not that good either. Your going more on situation IMO and this can change in a hurry. Someone else can draft him early.

I agree on Fletcher and think you got him probably too high. His time is coming quickly

Not sure why the Dhani Jones love with both Rivers and Maulauga there. I prefer to take a chance on the other 2 instead

Farrior could lose some time to the young guys. I dont see enough tackles really to go around to 4 guys. Another dont touch

I love Connor Barwin as a freak kind of athlete but you still got to be worried somewhat about Brooks Reed there. Even though I think they come to there senses and put Barwin-Reed at LB and move Mario back to being Bruce Smith. I do prefer the winner of these 2 to Mario in fantasy terms.

LB3+ category seems huge. Some guys I love and others I would not touch myself.

A guy like Brian Cushing scares me too much with the steroid issue. He did not play that well after coming back from suspension and reminds me too much of Shawn Merriman

I like both Keith Rivers and Nick Barnett over alot of guys in here. FA will change this list beyond the top couple of tiers when it comes about

 

[Jene Bramel]

Other observationsI dont see Irving impacting DJ Williams all that much. I put Williams still in tier 2. Tulloch is a guy who might not be back in Tennessee and way to risky to put in tier 2. He is not all that talented either. Way overdrafted hereLevy is not that good either. Your going more on situation IMO and this can change in a hurry. Someone else can draft him early. I agree on Fletcher and think you got him probably too high. His time is coming quicklyNot sure why the Dhani Jones love with both Rivers and Maulauga there. I prefer to take a chance on the other 2 insteadFarrior could lose some time to the young guys. I dont see enough tackles really to go around to 4 guys. Another dont touchI love Connor Barwin as a freak kind of athlete but you still got to be worried somewhat about Brooks Reed there. Even though I think they come to there senses and put Barwin-Reed at LB and move Mario back to being Bruce Smith. I do prefer the winner of these 2 to Mario in fantasy terms. LB3+ category seems huge. Some guys I love and others I would not touch myself. A guy like Brian Cushing scares me too much with the steroid issue. He did not play that well after coming back from suspension and reminds me too much of Shawn MerrimanI like both Keith Rivers and Nick Barnett over alot of guys in here. FA will change this list beyond the top couple of tiers when it comes about

Great arguments from top to bottom. Wish you'd post more, Crippler. I'm not sold on the LB2+ and LB2 tiers right now either. Way too much roster uncertainty. That bugs me, since those are the tiers I focus on during the drafts. Sloughed linebackers into the 12th in an ongoing mock draft and ended up with Derrick Johnson as the LB20 after narrowly missing out on Bishop (and Ryans) a round earlier.Rivers belongs in the matchup LB4 category and has a chance to be higher if Brandon Johnson doesn't return. Barnett's issue is interesting, but I think he'll have value outside GB only right now.

 

[Crippler]

Hard to post alot. Single Dad with 3 boys going on. Busy. Thanks for the props though

Do you have a link to your D mock. Interested to see where the D players are going.

 

[BearsFan]

Can you educate me for a second on the Broncos' LB situation? Can Williams and Irving really both put up the numbers to justify those rankings at the same time?

Tackle opportunity is the equivalent of targets and touches for offensive players. Some offenses will support top tier touches for more than one offensive player, sometimes at the same position. Some defenses will do the same.I like the think of the back seven as a triangle. I'll generally project three back seven players to get the bulk of the tackles. It might be LB/LB/CB (e.g. Carolina in recent years), it might be LB/S/S (as I did with Miami when Bell and Wilson were playing safety). An average tackle opportunity season usually yields around 800 tackle chances and stat crews have awarded around 850 solos per team per year over the past three years. A average to slightly above-average every-down linebacker with an average supporting cast usually handles 11-12% of his team's solo tackles, putting him in range for 85-90 solos as a baseline before factoring in upside.None of that answers the specific question, but that's where I'm coming from when projecting tackle numbers.Denver is moving to a 4-3. I'm not sure they're ready to stop the run consistently (questionable front four and a poor fit at SLB) and I have concerns about their ability to move the ball consistently. I think that leads to above-average tackle opportunity. In the DEN triangle, I think the best chances for consistent tackle opportunity will be the every-down linebacker(s) and strong safety. My read of the Broncos' offseason moves and comments is that Williams will be the every-down WLB, Irving the every-down MLB and some mix of Dawkins and Carter at the SS position. I don't think Dawkins/Carter run up tackles unless the MLB (Irving, or less likely Mays) is a complete non-factor in the middle. I think Williams is a safe bet for 82-88 solos (my LB2 cutoff) but I'm always reluctant to push a 4-3 OLB into the 90-95+ range. Irving's prospects are similar; his tier factors in a concern that he'll not start in the middle, not play in subpackages or not play to the upside on his scouting report. If Irving looks fluid in training camp and plays in the nickel, I'll likely push Williams down a few slots in the LB2 tier and put Irving in the LB2+ range.But I definitely think that back seven and the expected opportunity supports two top 25 linebackers this year.

Why did DEN see DJ Williams as more a WLB than MLB when he's had success in the latter? Was it speed?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Hard to post alot. Single Dad with 3 boys going on. Busy. Thanks for the props though

Do you have a link to your D mock. Interested to see where the D players are going.

Here's the link to the mock. 12 team, 6 pt/TD pass, PPR, leaning tackle heavy, relatively shallow lineup, 28 roster spots.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Can you educate me for a second on the Broncos' LB situation? Can Williams and Irving really both put up the numbers to justify those rankings at the same time?

Tackle opportunity is the equivalent of targets and touches for offensive players. Some offenses will support top tier touches for more than one offensive player, sometimes at the same position. Some defenses will do the same.I like the think of the back seven as a triangle. I'll generally project three back seven players to get the bulk of the tackles. It might be LB/LB/CB (e.g. Carolina in recent years), it might be LB/S/S (as I did with Miami when Bell and Wilson were playing safety). An average tackle opportunity season usually yields around 800 tackle chances and stat crews have awarded around 850 solos per team per year over the past three years. A average to slightly above-average every-down linebacker with an average supporting cast usually handles 11-12% of his team's solo tackles, putting him in range for 85-90 solos as a baseline before factoring in upside.None of that answers the specific question, but that's where I'm coming from when projecting tackle numbers.Denver is moving to a 4-3. I'm not sure they're ready to stop the run consistently (questionable front four and a poor fit at SLB) and I have concerns about their ability to move the ball consistently. I think that leads to above-average tackle opportunity. In the DEN triangle, I think the best chances for consistent tackle opportunity will be the every-down linebacker(s) and strong safety. My read of the Broncos' offseason moves and comments is that Williams will be the every-down WLB, Irving the every-down MLB and some mix of Dawkins and Carter at the SS position. I don't think Dawkins/Carter run up tackles unless the MLB (Irving, or less likely Mays) is a complete non-factor in the middle. I think Williams is a safe bet for 82-88 solos (my LB2 cutoff) but I'm always reluctant to push a 4-3 OLB into the 90-95+ range. Irving's prospects are similar; his tier factors in a concern that he'll not start in the middle, not play in subpackages or not play to the upside on his scouting report. If Irving looks fluid in training camp and plays in the nickel, I'll likely push Williams down a few slots in the LB2 tier and put Irving in the LB2+ range.But I definitely think that back seven and the expected opportunity supports two top 25 linebackers this year.

Why did DEN see DJ Williams as more a WLB than MLB when he's had success in the latter? Was it speed?

I think he's slotted more toward OLB most year because of their depth chart. In most years, they either had a better MLB candidate (Al Wilson) or didn't have a better option at WLB (Andra Davis, Mario Haggan, Joe Mays, etc made more sense inside than outside, Wes Woodyard wasn't a better option outside). Hard to know if they felt that Irving was a potential stud in the middle or if they didn't see that kind of WLB talent. I'd guess that they like Irving inside long term and would rather mix and match outside (as Carolina did under Fox many times) than search for a MLB anchor.

 

[Crippler]

Can you educate me for a second on the Broncos' LB situation? Can Williams and Irving really both put up the numbers to justify those rankings at the same time?

Tackle opportunity is the equivalent of targets and touches for offensive players. Some offenses will support top tier touches for more than one offensive player, sometimes at the same position. Some defenses will do the same.I like the think of the back seven as a triangle. I'll generally project three back seven players to get the bulk of the tackles. It might be LB/LB/CB (e.g. Carolina in recent years), it might be LB/S/S (as I did with Miami when Bell and Wilson were playing safety). An average tackle opportunity season usually yields around 800 tackle chances and stat crews have awarded around 850 solos per team per year over the past three years. A average to slightly above-average every-down linebacker with an average supporting cast usually handles 11-12% of his team's solo tackles, putting him in range for 85-90 solos as a baseline before factoring in upside.None of that answers the specific question, but that's where I'm coming from when projecting tackle numbers.Denver is moving to a 4-3. I'm not sure they're ready to stop the run consistently (questionable front four and a poor fit at SLB) and I have concerns about their ability to move the ball consistently. I think that leads to above-average tackle opportunity. In the DEN triangle, I think the best chances for consistent tackle opportunity will be the every-down linebacker(s) and strong safety. My read of the Broncos' offseason moves and comments is that Williams will be the every-down WLB, Irving the every-down MLB and some mix of Dawkins and Carter at the SS position. I don't think Dawkins/Carter run up tackles unless the MLB (Irving, or less likely Mays) is a complete non-factor in the middle. I think Williams is a safe bet for 82-88 solos (my LB2 cutoff) but I'm always reluctant to push a 4-3 OLB into the 90-95+ range. Irving's prospects are similar; his tier factors in a concern that he'll not start in the middle, not play in subpackages or not play to the upside on his scouting report. If Irving looks fluid in training camp and plays in the nickel, I'll likely push Williams down a few slots in the LB2 tier and put Irving in the LB2+ range.But I definitely think that back seven and the expected opportunity supports two top 25 linebackers this year.

Why did DEN see DJ Williams as more a WLB than MLB when he's had success in the latter? Was it speed?

I think he's slotted more toward OLB most year because of their depth chart. In most years, they either had a better MLB candidate (Al Wilson) or didn't have a better option at WLB (Andra Davis, Mario Haggan, Joe Mays, etc made more sense inside than outside, Wes Woodyard wasn't a better option outside). Hard to know if they felt that Irving was a potential stud in the middle or if they didn't see that kind of WLB talent. I'd guess that they like Irving inside long term and would rather mix and match outside (as Carolina did under Fox many times) than search for a MLB anchor.

Thomas Davis has scored well on the outside on Fox teams. If not for injury. Back in 2009 he scored 75.5 pts in 6 games in my home league system compared to 51.5 for Beason. Back in 2008 he was 126 to Beason 146.5. Last year a not as talented James Anderson scored 150.5 to Beason 120. DJ Williams will do fine no matter which spot he lines up but I like the WLB spot for him in that 4-3 D. Puts him solid #2 guy and possibly in the top group.Not the brightest lightbulbs in that mock is there.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Can you educate me for a second on the Broncos' LB situation? Can Williams and Irving really both put up the numbers to justify those rankings at the same time?

Tackle opportunity is the equivalent of targets and touches for offensive players. Some offenses will support top tier touches for more than one offensive player, sometimes at the same position. Some defenses will do the same.I like the think of the back seven as a triangle. I'll generally project three back seven players to get the bulk of the tackles. It might be LB/LB/CB (e.g. Carolina in recent years), it might be LB/S/S (as I did with Miami when Bell and Wilson were playing safety). An average tackle opportunity season usually yields around 800 tackle chances and stat crews have awarded around 850 solos per team per year over the past three years. A average to slightly above-average every-down linebacker with an average supporting cast usually handles 11-12% of his team's solo tackles, putting him in range for 85-90 solos as a baseline before factoring in upside.None of that answers the specific question, but that's where I'm coming from when projecting tackle numbers.Denver is moving to a 4-3. I'm not sure they're ready to stop the run consistently (questionable front four and a poor fit at SLB) and I have concerns about their ability to move the ball consistently. I think that leads to above-average tackle opportunity. In the DEN triangle, I think the best chances for consistent tackle opportunity will be the every-down linebacker(s) and strong safety. My read of the Broncos' offseason moves and comments is that Williams will be the every-down WLB, Irving the every-down MLB and some mix of Dawkins and Carter at the SS position. I don't think Dawkins/Carter run up tackles unless the MLB (Irving, or less likely Mays) is a complete non-factor in the middle. I think Williams is a safe bet for 82-88 solos (my LB2 cutoff) but I'm always reluctant to push a 4-3 OLB into the 90-95+ range. Irving's prospects are similar; his tier factors in a concern that he'll not start in the middle, not play in subpackages or not play to the upside on his scouting report. If Irving looks fluid in training camp and plays in the nickel, I'll likely push Williams down a few slots in the LB2 tier and put Irving in the LB2+ range.But I definitely think that back seven and the expected opportunity supports two top 25 linebackers this year.

Why did DEN see DJ Williams as more a WLB than MLB when he's had success in the latter? Was it speed?

I think he's slotted more toward OLB most year because of their depth chart. In most years, they either had a better MLB candidate (Al Wilson) or didn't have a better option at WLB (Andra Davis, Mario Haggan, Joe Mays, etc made more sense inside than outside, Wes Woodyard wasn't a better option outside). Hard to know if they felt that Irving was a potential stud in the middle or if they didn't see that kind of WLB talent. I'd guess that they like Irving inside long term and would rather mix and match outside (as Carolina did under Fox many times) than search for a MLB anchor.

Thomas Davis has scored well on the outside on Fox teams. If not for injury. Back in 2009 he scored 75.5 pts in 6 games in my home league system compared to 51.5 for Beason. Back in 2008 he was 126 to Beason 146.5. Last year a not as talented James Anderson scored 150.5 to Beason 120. DJ Williams will do fine no matter which spot he lines up but I like the WLB spot for him in that 4-3 D. Puts him solid #2 guy and possibly in the top group.

Your arguments are too convincing to ignore. The crappy DT rotation looks similar to the last couple of seasons in Carolina, too. Not convinced that they'll use the same underfront concepts in Denver yet, but it seems likely. I'm keeping Irving where he sits for now, but I think you're right that Williams should be LB2+.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Not the brightest lightbulbs in that mock is there.

There have been a handful of questionable picks (and comments). I'd probably include a couple of my own decisions in the questionable category. I'm still working through my offensive tiers, though. And I'd probably have gone in a different direction with a predrafted pick or two had I been able to tract the 3-4 picks just before.

 

[Benchwarmers]

Where would D’Qwell Jackson rank?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Where would D’Qwell Jackson rank?

He's in the LB3+ tier. The D Jackson is a little confusing. I'll revise that to DQ Jackson. Has the extra benefit of reflecting his durability history, too.

 

[Crippler]

Not the brightest lightbulbs in that mock is there.

There have been a handful of questionable picks (and comments). I'd probably include a couple of my own decisions in the questionable category. I'm still working through my offensive tiers, though. And I'd probably have gone in a different direction with a predrafted pick or two had I been able to tract the 3-4 picks just before.

Yeah. Only pick I question is Charles Johnson that high. I really like Vanden Bosch or Ray Edwards instead now. Dont mind a chance on a guy like Derrick Morgan or Calias Campbell either. Darnell Dockett at this point would be okay also. Give me 3 of these guys and an O player and you keep Charles Johnson. Long or Pierre Paul in the 15th round was nice also. I like where you took your LB's and that you have not grabbed a DB yet as only starting 2 because you want to go 2-3-2 each week is also smart as a ton out there to be had. Especially with the small rosters. O I will not comment on but you seem to have done not bad. Maybe not who I pick but than that is usually just personal preference. YOur strategy looks fine but the DE in the 9th.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Not seeing Bruce Carter on your list. Oversight or do you not like him much? (or did I just miss him?)

 

[Jene Bramel]

Not the brightest lightbulbs in that mock is there.

There have been a handful of questionable picks (and comments). I'd probably include a couple of my own decisions in the questionable category. I'm still working through my offensive tiers, though. And I'd probably have gone in a different direction with a predrafted pick or two had I been able to tract the 3-4 picks just before.

Yeah. Only pick I question is Charles Johnson that high. I really like Vanden Bosch or Ray Edwards instead now. Dont mind a chance on a guy like Derrick Morgan or Calias Campbell either. Darnell Dockett at this point would be okay also. Give me 3 of these guys and an O player and you keep Charles Johnson. Long or Pierre Paul in the 15th round was nice also. I like where you took your LB's and that you have not grabbed a DB yet as only starting 2 because you want to go 2-3-2 each week is also smart as a ton out there to be had. Especially with the small rosters. O I will not comment on but you seem to have done not bad. Maybe not who I pick but than that is usually just personal preference. YOur strategy looks fine but the DE in the 9th.

Narrowly missed Robert Mathis a couple of rounds ago. Likely to take Ray Edwards with my next pick.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Not seeing Bruce Carter on your list. Oversight or do you not like him much? (or did I just miss him?)

I don't think Carter plays much this year. There will be no OTAs, the possibility of no training camp, and a rumored possibility that he could start the season on the PUP list. That combination of concerns, along with the presence of James/Brooking/Lee, have me wondering if he'll get more than 100 snaps this year. His ceiling would be a LB2+ candidate as an every-down WILB, but I think his 2011 upside is similar to what we saw from Lee last year unless the veterans miss multiple games.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Commentary to follow, but posting the DE and DT tiers for discussion.

-------------------

DL Tiers

DE1 J Tuck, T Cole, C Johnson, J Allen, T Suggs, J Peppers, R Mathis, O Umenyiora

DE2+ R Edwards, C Long, C Dunlap, D Dockett, J Smith, M Kiwanuka, A Kampman, W Smith, K Vanden Bosch

DE2 E Dumervil, J Abraham, J Babin, C Clemons, I Idonije, C Campbell, C Avril, J Pierre-Paul, M Shaughnessy, K Biermann, G Dorsey, L Houston

DE3+ J Mincey, R Quinn, J Sheard, R Ayers, A Clayborn, D Bowers, J Hall, B Robison, L Jackson

DE3 D Freeney, T Warren, K Langford, An Smith

I have another 25 names on a watch list with DE3+ upside or better pending news about increased snap counts, more favorable roles or injury recovery.

-------------------

DT1 N Suh, Ky Williams, H Ngata, R Seymour, S Ellis, A Rubin, S Pouha

Suh, Williams, Ngata and Seymour are considerations as DL3+ at minimum. The other three are reasonable rosters in all-inclusive DL leagues. I'm probably not drafting any DT outside of the top four in DL leagues, but there are arguments for the rest of this tier and the next in deeper leagues.

DT2 A Garay, T Kelly, J Jones, J Ratliff, C Williams, BJ Raji, V Wilfork, G McCoy

DT Rosterable J Babineaux, Ke Williams, F Robbins, C Cole, T Alualu, N Fairley, K Vickerson, G Atkins, S Paea

DT Watch B Mebane, B Cofield, A Haynesworth, D Nevis

 

[Zdravko]

Any value in Corey Liuget if he remains listed as a DT? What are the chances he plays more of a DE role?

 

[Bdub]

Can you talk a bit about why you have Demeco Ryans so high?

And Levy....Asking as a guy who kept an injured Ryans on my team all last year, and had to drop Levy to make the room to do it.

The Lions seem to have backed off their earlier comments that they were actively looking to add a linebacker that could bump Levy outside, noting that he performed better there as the season progressed and his injuries hindered him less. Though this year's draft class was relatively thin on every-down OLB prospects, they didn't look to address the position until very late in the draft.Unless and until the Lions get a guy like Tulloch or Ruud to sign a contract, Levy has to be considered a potential stud every-down middle linebacker on a team with a weak surrounding cast and likely to see at least average opportunity.

Jene, a couple of questions for you regarding Levy. I have no doubt that if Detroit doesn't sign a guy like Ruud or Tulloch, Levy can be a beast this year (and beyond). I've got the chance to get him relatively cheap right now. If I wait it out, and it becomes obvious that he is the 3 down MLB, the price will go way up later this summer (or I might miss out on the chance all together). If I go for it right now, and he moves outside to make room for a new MLB, what would his role be? I'm not asking what to do, I think I already know the answer to that question. But, what do you think the odds are that Detroit brings in a good veteran to play MLB? And if that happens, I'm assuming that he'd play the 3 down WLB position. Would he have DJ Williams potential in that defense, in that position?

 

[Packerz]

Why no Ziggy Hood at all, I could see him fitting into your DE3+

 

[Jene Bramel]

Any value in Corey Liuget if he remains listed as a DT? What are the chances he plays more of a DE role?

Why no Ziggy Hood at all, I could see him fitting into your DE3+

My personal bias is to err on the side of dual run support and pass rush upside in the upside tiers. That usually leaves me a little behind the curve on breakout 3-4 DE (should there be such a thing). Both Liuget (who I strongly doubt will be listed as DT with Garay the primary NT, but would be a DT2 minimum if he does) and Hood have upside as 3-4 DE, but I'm not willing to draft them as DL3 until they earn at least 75% of their defensive snaps. Liuget has a chance to get that kind of playing time this year, but it's hard to project a rookie to 700 snaps in a 3-4 DE role. Hood's playing time will depend on the health of Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel and how quickly Cameron Heyward comes along.Definitely agree that both guys are in that long list of guys to watch and could easily jump into a draftable tier by the end of the summer.

 

[Jene Bramel]

If I go for it right now, and he moves outside to make room for a new MLB, what would his role be? I'm not asking what to do, I think I already know the answer to that question. But, what do you think the odds are that Detroit brings in a good veteran to play MLB? And if that happens, I'm assuming that he'd play the 3 down WLB position. Would he have DJ Williams potential in that defense, in that position?

Agree that Levy would move outside to WLB, and very likely play every down, if he's bumped out of the MLB job. Still a nice spot for IDP value, but he'd drop into the LB3 tier in that scenario. I don't think Levy is as dynamic as Williams, wouldn't see as many underfront WLB snaps and may not see as much tackle opportunity with the Detroit defense improving. That would keep him at least a tier behind Williams for now.After suggesting that they'd be on the market for a veteran linebacker acquisition last winter, every coaching comment since the draft has suggested that Levy is seen as a stable MLB option. I'm not sure I buy it, but that's the current coachspeak. I don't think a guy like Barrett Ruud fits into what Jim Schwartz generally wants in a middle linebacker (neither does Levy in many respects), so the list of clear MLB upgrades is pretty short and may be blank. If the 2011 season is played under 2010 rules, Tulloch won't be available. They'll be looking at guys like Kirk Morrison, Stephen Cooper, Dhani Jones, etc. That may be driving the post-draft comments more than anything else.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Just came across THIS from last May, that has the staff members telling what they look for at each postion, drafting strategy, personal IDP thoughts, 2010 IDP thoughts on rookies, free agents, etc.

 

[Tick]

I'm guessing the guys on the DE3+ list include Brandon Graham, Everette Brown, and Jerry Hughes. Has William Hayes fallen off the list entirely by now?

Dunlap at 2+ really surprised me. Can you back that up a little?

 

[cheese]

I'm guessing the guys on the DE3+ list include Brandon Graham, Everette Brown, and Jerry Hughes. Has William Hayes fallen off the list entirely by now?

Dunlap at 2+ really surprised me. Can you back that up a little?

I'm only educated enough to comment about the Bengals, but I'll give you my 2 cents on this one. Dunlap is likely to see the field as much as anyone out there because he plays like a legit run stopper at DE and yet piled up 9.5 sacks once he took over last year. His ability to do both gives him pretty good upside if you believe in his rookie year sack total. I'm slightly hesitant to say he will get double digit sacks even in a full year just because he got some sacks off his motor alone in some late-season games which may or may not translate into this year. I do love his ability to run down backs on running plays away from him and his effort to stay after the QB's that step up in the pocket or hold the ball too long. If Joseph returns and Hall stays healthy, the coverage sacks may be available again as they were at times last year.Bottom line IMO is he's going to be a really good DE for the Bengals, but his status near the top of the dynasty rankings will probably take some things going right for him to keep the sack total up. As a Bengals fan, I would say he is a similar player to Justin Smith.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'm guessing the guys on the DE3+ list include Brandon Graham, Everette Brown, and Jerry Hughes. Has William Hayes fallen off the list entirely by now?

Hayes is hanging on, but barely. If Jerry Gray is serious about getting bigger along the defensive line and giving Jason Jones some time there, Hayes will have a hard time seeing more than half the defensive snaps. His projected upside last year was based on an expected increased number of snaps (into the 65-70% range). That didn't happen and Hayes didn't look as dominant as he should've in limited time.He's going to have to show a lot in the preseason to come off the "don't draft but watch on the wire" list.

Dunlap at 2+ really surprised me. Can you back that up a little?

I think he plays a near full time role this year. The Bengals are still not sure what they want to do with Michael Johnson. Even if they keep him at end, he seems a better fit as a situational player than a base defensive end that can play the run and pass. If Johnson and Dunlap flip roles -- and I think Dunlap can hold the edge (or pursue) better than Johnson -- Dunlap could add 40 tackles to his double digit sack talent. Dunlap's sacks came against IND, NO, SD, CLE and BAL which are all at least average pass protecting units.I'm not sure there's Justin Tuck potential yet, but I think he'll prove to play the run well enough that snap count is all that's standing in his way to a DE1 finish. Maybe I'm foolish in thinking the Bengals give him those snaps over Johnson and Odom and Rucker. As new breakout players go, he's closer to my feelings on Ray Edwards, Charles Johnson, Gaines Adams, Trent Cole, Everette Brown than Cliff Avril, Kroy Biermann, William Hayes over the years.

 

[Tick]

Thanks - I guess I hadn't taken a good look at Dunlap yet, despite picking him up late in the year. Both of those responses are detailed and appreciated.

 

[DenverBroncos]

Jene: What are your thoughts on Everette Brown going forward? Do you think he has good upside or has that shipped sailed now?

 

[Bdub]

Jene, can you fill me in on what you expect out of Cushing? He's definitely playing inside with Ryans in their new 3-4 defense, right? Do you think he will be rushing some on third downs, and do you believe he's going to be an every down player?

If so, in this new defense, what kind of numbers can he put up? Off the top of my head, we don't usually have two monster IDP 3-4 inside LB's side by side. Can Ryans and Cushing both tear it up?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene: What are your thoughts on Everette Brown going forward? Do you think he has good upside or has that shipped sailed now?

I, perhaps stubbornly, still think he has upside. As Norton so fondly says of me, "Sometimes it's hard to know where patience ends and stupidity begins."It's disappointing that he had only four sacks (with 20 solos) in 13 games last year, since he was getting half the snaps when healthy. His pressure numbers were decent, those 20 solos suggest some run support upside and there's a new coaching staff who might see him differently than John Fox did. The depth chart doesn't look terrible and I think he's, at worst, a rotational player with Greg Hardy in 2011. I waited three seasons for Charles Johnson to get a shot here (though he had better part time numbers). I think it's reasonable to hope that another year and a new coaching staff brings the breakout season I've been expecting.He's still stashed on a few of my deep dynasty rosters, but he'll have to show something in the first half of 2011 to stay there.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, can you fill me in on what you expect out of Cushing? He's definitely playing inside with Ryans in their new 3-4 defense, right? Do you think he will be rushing some on third downs, and do you believe he's going to be an every down player? If so, in this new defense, what kind of numbers can he put up? Off the top of my head, we don't usually have two monster IDP 3-4 inside LB's side by side. Can Ryans and Cushing both tear it up?

He'll definitely be an every-down player and he'll see plenty of blitz opportunities on passing downs. They're very likely to come as an ILB, since Phillips will likely use a four man front on passing downs.I think, as the SILB, he's got 85+ solo, 5-6 sack upside. I'm still not convinced that he sheds blocks well enough to hit that tackle plateau, but he'll have LB2+ upside if he does. He's probably going to stay in the 18-30 range for me until he shows he can play inside consistently.You won't usually see two strong 3-4 ILB tacklers on the same team because it's rare to find a player who's got enough size to take on interior lineman at the point of attack but quick and agile enough to cover on passing downs. Takeo Spikes had a brief run alongside Patrick Willis last year, Bart Scott had a great season next to Ray Lewis years ago, the Jamie Sharper/Kailee Wong/Jay Foreman group in Houston were dual 90+ solo talents many seasons ago. To find those potentials in a SILB, you're looking for opportunity -- a defense with high tackle opportunity, a player who'll stay on the field all three downs, lack of a strong tackling secondary player -- and the talent (strength and range) to take advantage.Cushing is as good a bet as any in recent years. He could have a season similar to Bradie James two seasons ago under Phillips.