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Redskins and Chargers are as good as in! (1 Viewer)

QuizGuy66

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
UPDATE! Dang it the Bills and the Packers were right there! Happily the boring-scenario Chargers are at least still alive.

This week they are joined by the Redskins who at 7-7 are right there in the thick of it. As always, they need just a little help.

See post 20 for the update.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's the original post, alas the Seahawks didn't quite make it. But never fear tiebreaker fans! Post 15 has the (admittedly more straightforward and less exciting) scenarios for the Bills, Seahawks and Chargers to reach postseason glory (I would've done the Browns last week but ran seriously afoul of all the contingencies that were possible in the AFC East. Let's just say the Browns formula was 4 Browns wins + 4 Colts losses + 4 Jaguars wins + more.

-QG

------------------------------

As 2 or 3 of you might know, QG just hearts the NFL tie-breaking system. Sadly, that pesky tie game has probably pushed a couple truly wacky scenarios by the way side (alas, Rams fans, your team is definitely out) but happily the NFC West has the correct combination of clarity and possibility that tie-breaker fans like me are seeking. Seahawks fans, make sure you get those playoff ticket order forms in early!

It starts out really straightforward, then takes a bit of, well a turn, but the Seahawks are definitely not dead. However they can only win the division as the fact that Philly has games with both Dallas and Washington left ensures that at least 7 1/2 wins will be needed to get the last wildcard.

With the Seahawks at 2-9 and the Cardinals at 7-4 it's readily apparent that:

In Week 13, Seattle must win at Dallas and Arizona must lose at Philadelphia

In Week 14, Seattle must beat New England and Arizona must lose to St Louis

In Week 15, Seattle must win at St. Louis and Arizona must lose to Minnesota

In Week 16, Seattle must beat the Jets and Arizona must lose at New England.

In Week 17, Seattle must of course win at Arizona.

The Seahawks will be foiled, however if San Francisco ends up 8-8 or 7-8-1 (for obvious reasons) or if the 49ers end up (7-9) as the 3-way tie would go to the Cardinals on head-to-head-to-head record (3-1, vs 2-2 for the Squawks and 1-3 for the 49ers).

So, the 49ers thus need to go 3-1-1 or worse in their last 5 games.

Both teams will then be 7-9, 1-1 heads up, 4-2 in the division, 7-7 against common opponents and 5-7 in the conference.

This brings us to...the dreaded strength of victory tiebreaker! I'm still ever hopeful for the scenario that would have, say the game between 1-14 KC and 1-13-1 Cincinnati decide an NFC playoff berth. With the magic that is strength of victory, that can actually happen.

Anyhow, Seattle's 7 wins would be (in no particular order) : STL, NE, JETS, STL, SF, ARIZ, DAL

And.......Arizona's 7 wins would be (in no particular order) : MIA, BUF, SF, STL, SF, SEA, DAL

Crossing out their individual common wins (and their head-to-head game) we get:

Seattle: STL, NE, JETS, STL, SF, ARIZ, DAL

Arizona: MIA, BUF, SF, STL, SF, SEA, DAL

So right now, New England has 7 wins, St Louis 2, and the Jets 8, giving a total of 17 wins to help out the Squawks

Meanwhile, Miami has 6 wins, Buffalo has 6 wins, and San Francisco has 3 wins, giving a total of 15 wins to help the Cardinals

Based on the premise that Arizona loses their rest and Seattle wins their rest, NE, STL and the Jets pick up 2 more wins automatically to go to 19 Squawk helping wins.

Based on the fact that Buffalo, San Francisco, and Miami all have 1 game against each other left, the Cardinal win help gets bumped up automatically to 18.

There are 13 games left that would affect this outcome. 6 happen to be ones that will directly add a win to help Seattle or Arizona.

In each of these 6 cases, the Seattle helping team is on the left, the Arizona helping team is on the right.

Week 13: St Louis vs Miami

Week 14: Jets at San Francisco

Week 15: Jets vs Buffalo

Week 16: St Louis vs San Francisco

Week 17: New England at Buffalo

Week 17: Jets vs Miami (crazy how many Jet games figure into the Seahawks playoff chances)

Beyond these 6 games, there are a total of 7 games that can help either Seattle or Arizona:

These 4 results would help Seattle:

Week 13: New England beats Pittsburgh

Week 13: Jets beat Denver

Week 15: New England wins at Oakland

Week 17: St. Louis wins at Atlanta

These 3 results would help Arizona:

Week 16: Miami wins at Kansas City

Week 16: Buffalo wins at Denver

Week 17: San Francisco beats Washington

With all of the above, it is completely possible that when the dust settles, strength of victory might leave the teams STILL tied.

In that case it gets to strength of schedule.

Well they have 14 games in common (including their head-to-head games), so those all cancel each other out.

The only difference is that:

Seattle would have played Tampa Bay and Green Bay

Arizona would have played Carolina and Minnesota

As I type this Tampa Bay has 8 wins and Green Bay has 5, while Carolina has 8 wins and Minnesota has 6 (Green Bay does have 1 extra game left)

There are only 2 "swing" games that help one or the other team (again Seattle helper is on the left)

Week 13: Green Bay vs Carolina

Week 14: Tampa Bay at Carolina

These 9 results would help Seattle:

Week 12: Green Bay wins at New Orleans

Week 13: Tampa Bay beats New Orleans

Week 14: Green Bay beats Houston

Week 15: Tampa Bay wins at Atlanta

Week 15: Green Bay wins at Jacksonville

Week 16: Tampa Bay beats San Diego

Week 16: Green Bay wins at Chicago

Week 17: Tampa Bay beats Oakland

Week 17: Green Bay beats Detroit

These 8 results would help Arizona:

Week 13: Minnesota beats Chicago

Week 14: Minnesota wins at Detroit

Week 15: Carolina beats Detroit

Week 15: Minnesota wins at Arizona

Week 16: Carolina wins at Giants

Week 16: Minnesota beats Atlanta

Week 17: Carolina wins at New Orleans

Week 17: Minnesota beats Giants

Don't worry, I ain't about to get into the point-differential tiebreakers!

So there you go Seahawks fans - should be a piece of cake!

For your sake, good luck to the Packers Monday night and then the Seahawks, Eagles, Bills, Rams, Patriots, Packers, Buccaneers and Bears next week!

(ETA go Jets too!)

-QG

 
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T.A. said:
Nicely done.And... you have entirely too much time on your hands!
Click to expand...
LOL - thanks :hophead:It actually didn't take that long (after 45 minutes of figuring). I mean sure there's more than a few websites that plug and chug in the computer but where's the fun in that? Was kinda hoping there'd have been a Rams scenario or that maybe a Raiders loss would've given them a particulary dire scenario as well. Hopefully a good one will pop up next week!-QG
 
Oh, that hurts. You're telling me I'm supposed to still care about this season? I just spent about an hour researching mocks for the top end of the 2009 draft.

:hophead:

 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
That was such an awesome post, it's a shame it will be completely meaningless after Thanksgiving. Well done, though.
Click to expand...
:excited: Thanks, and well should things fall the wrong way for the Seahawks, there'll soon enough be another team with similarly bright prospects to break down. (Probably one or more of the 4-7 teams in the AFC after this week).Cheer up, Enforcer, you have some meaningful football. :excited: I was hoping to do the scenario for my Bengals this week but alas there are way too many 7-4 teams already blocking the way :blackdot: -QG
 
QuizGuy66 said:
As 2 or 3 of you might know, QG just hearts the NFL tie-breaking system. Sadly, that pesky tie game has probably pushed a couple truly wacky scenarios by the way side (alas, Rams fans, your team is definitely out) but happily the NFC West has the correct combination of clarity and possibility that tie-breaker fans like me are seeking. Seahawks fans, make sure you get those playoff ticket order forms in early!

It starts out really straightforward, then takes a bit of, well a turn, but the Seahawks are definitely not dead. However they can only win the division as the fact that Philly has games with both Dallas and Washington left ensures that at least 7 1/2 wins will be needed to get the last wildcard.

With the Seahawks at 2-9 and the Cardinals at 7-4 it's readily apparent that:

In Week 13, Seattle must win at Dallas and Arizona must lose at Philadelphia

In Week 14, Seattle must beat New England and Arizona must lose to St Louis...........

blah

blah

blah

blah

blah

blah
Click to expand...
Fixed.But seriously, great post :banned:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I can't believe I just spent all that time reading all that....

and LOVED IT! Awesome post, I love tie-breaker scenarios. I try to figure out the possibilities of our FF League brackets as early as I can each year.

Great work on such a crazy scenario!

 
Okay so this is a bit disappointing. There's barely too wide a gulf between the teams in the last playoff spot and the best of the worst. The 5 teams with records of 2-11 or worse have a lot to with that I'm sure.

Anyhow on to the scenarios!

The Charger scenario is straightforward and boring. They didn't even have the decency to get the wacky tiebreakers like strength of victory involved.

San Diego has to:

1) Win week 15 at KC

2) Win week 16 at TB

Denver has to:

1) Lose week 15 at Carolina

2) Lose week 16 vs Buffalo

And then

San Diego has to beat Denver in Week 17. (They then advance on division record 5-1 vs 4-2).

------------------------------------

The Packers scenario is slightly more involved with one little degree of freedom thrown in. They can't win the wild card as the fact that Philly still has to play Dallas means that he worst a wild card team can be this year is 8-7-1. They can only win the division.

Green Bay has to:

1) Win week 15 at Jacksonville

2) Win week 16 at Chicago

3) Win week 17 vs Detroit (could you imagine everything else goes right and then they lose it here?)

Minnesota has to:

1) Lose week 15 at Arizona

2) Lose week 16 vs Atlanta

3) Lose week 17 vs Giants

Chicago, already losing to Green Bay in week 16 as above must:

Do no better than 1-1 (or 0-0-2) in their Week 15 game vs New Orleans and Week 17 game vs Houston.

If it's a 2-way tie with Minnesota, Green Bay makes it based on a head-to-head sweep.

If it's a 3-way tie with Minnesota and Chicago, Green Bay makes it based on 3-1 head-to-head-to-head record.

----------------------------------------------

Finally there's the Bills. Saved for last due to maximum wackiness.

They can only make it by winning the AFC East.

Any tiebreakers for the wildcard with Indianapolis and/or Baltimore go against them.

They have not played either of these teams, so the first tie-breaker is conference record.

Since they'd need to win out and have Baltimore and/or Indianapolis lose out, these things will be true:

Indianapolis beats them on conference record (8-4 vs 7-5).

They will be tied with Baltimore on conference record (7-5) but lost out in the common games tiebreaker (4-1 for Baltimore vs 2-3 for Buffalo). (For the sticklers, the common games are Cleveland, Jacksonville, Miami, and Oakland)

So with the wildcard safely out of reach. The only path is the division.

There's more problems for our heroes from Buffalo in this scenario. Even if they win out, they will be just 1-1 against New England and the Jets. They already are 0-2 against the Dolphins. That 2-4 Divisional mark ensures that they will lose the tiebreaker to the Jets and Patriots as well as to the Dolphins. They have to win the division outright.

Happily that is still possible. Really the Bills getting in should be a piece of cake. They even have a little degree of freedom thrown in for good measure.

So here goes:

Buffalo must:

Win Week 15 at the Jets

Win Week 16 at Denver

Win Week 17 vs New England

New England (already have lost Week 17 above) must:

Go no better than 0-1-1 in their Week 15 game at Oakland and Week 16 game vs. Arizona

Miami must:

Lose Week 15 vs San Francisco

Lose Week 16 at Kansas City

The Jets (already having lost Week 15 above) must:

Lose Week 16 at Seattle

Oh, and in Week 17 the Jets and Dolphins MUST tie.

See, the Bills are as good as in!

Cheers

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
The Packers scenario is slightly more involved with one little degree of freedom thrown in. They can't win the wild card as the fact that Philly still has to play Dallas means that he worst a wild card team can be this year is 8-7-1. They can only win the division.

Green Bay has to:

1) Win week 15 at Jacksonville

2) Win week 16 at Chicago

3) Win week 17 vs Detroit (could you imagine everything else goes right and then they lose it here?)

Minnesota has to:

1) Lose week 15 at Arizona

2) Lose week 16 vs Atlanta

3) Lose week 17 vs Giants

Chicago, already losing to Green Bay in week 16 as above must:

Do no better than 1-1 (or 0-0-2) in their Week 15 game vs New Orleans and Week 17 game vs Houston.

If it's a 2-way tie with Minnesota, Green Bay makes it based on a head-to-head sweep.

If it's a 3-way tie with Minnesota and Chicago, Green Bay makes it based on 3-1 head-to-head-to-head record.
Click to expand...
Slight correction: Green Bay did not sweep Minnesota, but they would win the tie breaker by having a 5-1 division record compared to Minnesota's 4-2. Assuming this all plays out like you have it.
 
Kleck said:
QuizGuy66 said:
The Packers scenario is slightly more involved with one little degree of freedom thrown in. They can't win the wild card as the fact that Philly still has to play Dallas means that he worst a wild card team can be this year is 8-7-1. They can only win the division.

Green Bay has to:

1) Win week 15 at Jacksonville

2) Win week 16 at Chicago

3) Win week 17 vs Detroit (could you imagine everything else goes right and then they lose it here?)

Minnesota has to:

1) Lose week 15 at Arizona

2) Lose week 16 vs Atlanta

3) Lose week 17 vs Giants

Chicago, already losing to Green Bay in week 16 as above must:

Do no better than 1-1 (or 0-0-2) in their Week 15 game vs New Orleans and Week 17 game vs Houston.

If it's a 2-way tie with Minnesota, Green Bay makes it based on a head-to-head sweep.

If it's a 3-way tie with Minnesota and Chicago, Green Bay makes it based on 3-1 head-to-head-to-head record.
Click to expand...
Slight correction: Green Bay did not sweep Minnesota, but they would win the tie breaker by having a 5-1 division record compared to Minnesota's 4-2. Assuming this all plays out like you have it.
Click to expand...
d'oh that is correct, thanks Kleck!-QG

 
The Charger scenario is still straightforward and boring. What I wouldn't give to have the conference net point rankings involved!

San Diego has to:

1) Win week 16 at TB

Denver has to:

1) Lose week 16 vs Buffalo

And then

San Diego has to beat Denver in Week 17. (They then advance on division record 5-1 vs 4-2).

----------------------------------------------------------

Ah but the Redskins have at least done us a little better and thankfully Philly's Monday night win tightened up the scenarios that little bit more. Luckily they hold tiebreakers over every other team they can be tied with.

It should be a piece of cake. All that has to happen is...

Washington (7-7) has to:

1) Beat Philadelphia in Week 16.

AND 2) Win at San Francisco in Week 17.

Atlanta (9-5) has to:

1) Lose at Minnesota in Week 16. (Since this has to happen, Minnesota can't be in a tie for the last playoff spot with Washington)

AND 2) Lose to St Louis in Week 17.

Tampa Bay (9-5) has to:

1) Lose to San Diego in Week 16. (see both the Chargers AND Redskins can both still make it!)

AND 2) Lose to Oakland in Week 17.

I'll pause here to note that if Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both 9-7, Atlanta would finish ahead of Tampa based on common games (8-4 to 7-5)

Chicago (8-6) has to:

1) Lose to Green Bay in Week 16.

OR

2) Lose at Houston in Week 17.

OR

3) Tie both Green Bay and Houston.

Dallas (9-5) has to:

1) Lose vs Baltimore in Week 16.

OR

2) Win or Tie at Philadelphia in Week 17.

Putting it all together.

Since Dallas (9-6) plays Philadelphia (8-5-1) in Week 17, at least one of them is guaranteed to finish ahead of the Redskins. But if the other team finishes tied with the Redskins at either 9-7 or 8-6-2, the Redskins have the tiebreaker. (Washington would beat Dallas on Conference record, 8-4 to 7-5. Washington would beat Philaldelphia on head to head sweep. Interestingly enough, if Dallas loses to Baltimore in Week 16, the Dallas/Philly game actually will have no impact on the playoff chances of the Redskins.

So with Dallas or Philly in safely as the 5th seed. The now 3rd-place Redskins would face off with the 2nd-place Falcons and possibly the 2nd-place Bears for the final wildcard. Since the teams didn't meet head-to-head-to-head, it would go to conference record where the Redskins have the edge, 8-4 vs. 7-5 for the Falcons vs. (if applicable) 7-5 for the Bears. Thus the Redskins would punch their ticket to the playoffs.

See, they are as good as in!!

Go Redskins/Chargers/Vikings/Packers/Ravens! (and for the Chargers fans go Bills too!)

-QG

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just updated to reflect the Cowboys losing to the Ravens.

Interestingly enough, that ensures that the Dallas-Philly game in Week 17 will have NO bearing at all on the playoff chances for the Redskins.

If Washington, Minnesota, and San Diego win this week, the Redskins will be playing meaningful football in Week 17! (Green Bay beating Chicago helps, but a Chicago win would not eliminate the 'Skins).

-QG

 
DevilDog919 said:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenari...amp;16=05001515

Except I don't see ATL losing to STL, or TB losing to OAK in week 17. Take a look at it now, and the Redskins have no chance. Its going to be ATL, TB, and/or DAL...Philly has an outside shot as well.
Click to expand...
Something's screwy with the calculator as it gives Dallas a FINAL record of 9-6-0 based on the link you put up there. Dallas would really be 9-7-0 there and Washington would be ahead of them. Yahoo central needs a little more time I guess to work that kind out. Trust me the Skins make if what's outlined above occurs. They are as good as in :goodposting: !-QG

 
Last edited by a moderator:
:lmao: stupid Vikings messed it up :towelwave:

but the Chargers have worked their way back from the dead into a playoff game next week :D

-QG

 
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