Reggie Bush bandwagon (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

EBF,

I appreciate your thoughtful response.

As a rebuttal I would say that 1) and 4) are pretty much not helpful in assessing things for me especially as it pertains to whether Bush or any other 1st Round pick will actually perform in the NFL. The data from NFL drafts and the data from scouting is a risky assessment proposition, and the same sorts of data and sources came up praising the "busts" like QB, Tim Couch, QB, Ryan Leaf, RB, Ki-jana Carter and OT, Tony Mandarich. For every clear "winner" there is going to be 4 or 5 clear "busts".

As a rebuttal to 3) you are basically saying that because Bush was outstanding and because White could not perform, then clearly he should get the nod. I think that it is good to state that Bush did well, but knocking White because he had a bad hammy and could not go is not sound to me.

I think that your 2) below actually holds the most weight in the discussion and I appreciate your summary of the point. It is clear that Bush has viewed his potential NFL career as a financial stepping stone for his family and he has shown he has been willing to back that up in many ways.

I'm not sure of the multiple sources you are referencing about White's lack of commitment to working hard and to being fit. He apparently came from poverty and has a lot to gain by a successful NFL career as well. I would ask though, do you think that it is possible that the sources are incorrect? I personally have a hard time imagining how a guy can rack up more than 900 yards rushing after initial contact in a single season without having worked hard to be physically fit ...

It's really very simple, the media has done a fantastic job of picking a good guy and villan here. I've long been on the Bush bus and posted that driving smilie cause I may as well be driving the dang thing. I still love Bush and honestly don't see him as in the same ball park of recent RBs to come out or RBs from this class. White however was the 2nd best RB in this draft and had the timing of his hammy injury been different I think that is exactly were he would have been taken too. The slight thrown towards White by this board is absurd IMO.

 

[Dancing Bear]

The slight thrown towards White by this board is absurd IMO.

 

[Bojang0301]

The slight thrown towards White by this board is absurd IMO.

I second that

 

[EBF]

As a rebuttal I would say that 1) and 4) are pretty much not helpful in assessing things for me especially as it pertains to whether Bush or any other 1st Round pick will actually perform in the NFL. The data from NFL drafts and the data from scouting is a risky assessment proposition, and the same sorts of data and sources came up praising the "busts" like QB, Tim Couch, QB, Ryan Leaf, RB, Ki-jana Carter and OT, Tony Mandarich. For every clear "winner" there is going to be 4 or 5 clear "busts".

Higher draft picks tend to do better than lower draft picks. It's a simple fact. Have there been some high first round flops like Curtis Enis and Ki-Jana Carter? Sure. But there have also been a lot of second round flops like JJ Arrington, Maurice Morris, Eric Shelton, Tony Hollings, Ladell Betts, and Mike Cloud.

It's a numbers game. The odds clearly favor the first round picks.

As a rebuttal to 3) you are basically saying that because Bush was outstanding and because White could not perform, then clearly he should get the nod.

Yep. It makes sense to me. One player proved that he has elite physical skills. The other player didn't. Maybe White also would've had a great workout, but he didn't. That adds an element of risk. With Bush, we're 100% certain that he has elite physical talent. With White, we're not 100% sure. There's uncertainty there.Again, it's a numbers game. The odds favor Bush.

I'm not sure of the multiple sources you are referencing about White's lack of commitment to working hard and to being fit. He apparently came from poverty and has a lot to gain by a successful NFL career as well. I would ask though, do you think that it is possible that the sources are incorrect?

Is it possible that all of these sources are wrong? I suppose so. It's also possible that White will eventually become more mature. Nevertheless, I have heard enough rumors to raise some red flags.

I personally have a hard time imagining how a guy can rack up more than 900 yards rushing after initial contact in a single season without having worked hard to be physically fit ...

It's called talent. There are dozens of deadbeats hanging around NBA rosters on talent alone. The NFL tends to weed out many of its slackers, but it doesn't seem like a stretch to think that a lazy player could dominate at the amateur level on talent alone. Basically, there is a lot more uncertainty surrounding White than Bush. We know Bush is a hard-worker with top physical ability. We don't know those things about White, which has left us to guess. That added uncertainty coupled with his significantly lower draft position makes him a much riskier pick.

 

[thayman]

As a rebuttal I would say that 1) and 4) are pretty much not helpful in assessing things for me especially as it pertains to whether Bush or any other 1st Round pick will actually perform in the NFL.  The data from NFL drafts and the data from scouting is a risky assessment proposition, and the same sorts of data and sources came up praising the "busts" like QB, Tim Couch, QB, Ryan Leaf, RB, Ki-jana Carter and OT, Tony Mandarich.  For every clear "winner" there is going to be 4 or 5 clear "busts".

Higher draft picks tend to do better than lower draft picks. It's a simple fact. Have there been some high first round flops like Curtis Enis and Ki-Jana Carter? Sure. But there have also been a lot of second round flops like JJ Arrington, Maurice Morris, Eric Shelton, Tony Hollings, Ladell Betts, and Mike Cloud.

It's a numbers game. The odds clearly favor the first round picks.

As a rebuttal to 3) you are basically saying that because Bush was outstanding and because White could not perform, then clearly he should get the nod. 

Yep. It makes sense to me. One player proved that he has elite physical skills. The other player didn't. Maybe White also would've had a great workout, but he didn't. That adds an element of risk. With Bush, we're 100% certain that he has elite physical talent. With White, we're not 100% sure. There's uncertainty there.Again, it's a numbers game. The odds favor Bush.

I'm not sure of the multiple sources you are referencing about White's lack of commitment to working hard and to being fit.  He apparently came from poverty and has a lot to gain by a successful NFL career as well.  I would ask though, do you think that it is possible that the sources are incorrect? 

Is it possible that all of these sources are wrong? I suppose so. It's also possible that White will eventually become more mature. Nevertheless, I have heard enough rumors to raise some red flags.

I personally have a hard time imagining how a guy can rack up more than 900 yards rushing after initial contact in a single season without having worked hard to be physically fit ...

It's called talent. There are dozens of deadbeats hanging around NBA rosters on talent alone. The NFL tends to weed out many of its slackers, but it doesn't seem like a stretch to think that a lazy player could dominate at the amateur level on talent alone. Basically, there is a lot more uncertainty surrounding White than Bush. We know Bush is a hard-worker with top physical ability. We don't know those things about White, which has left us to guess. That added uncertainty coupled with his significantly lower draft position makes him a much riskier pick.

 

[Marc Levin]

I still love Bush and honestly don't see him as in the same ball park of recent RBs to come out or RBs from this class.

IMO, Bush = LT = Faulk = Sanders as far as talent level coming out of college (not "will have the smae success in the NFL" - has the same level of talent)

 

[Marc Levin]

The slight thrown towards White by this board is absurd IMO.

I second that

i don't see the slight to White.Caddy and Brown co-existed in the same backfield in college and were top-8 selections in the NFL draft and are now proving it on the field - albeit in different ways and at different progress levels so far (Caddy's ahead of Brown b/c he was annointed the man from day one, Brown is still having to prove he can shoulder the load).

Both these backs (White and Bush) will have NFL success, but in different ways. And, IMO, White MIGHT get to the Caddy/Brown talent level in the NFL, but Bush is already there.

Loving Bush does not = hate for white.

 

[Marc Levin]

As a rebuttal I would say that 1) and 4) are pretty much not helpful in assessing things for me especially as it pertains to whether Bush or any other 1st Round pick will actually perform in the NFL.  The data from NFL drafts and the data from scouting is a risky assessment proposition, and the same sorts of data and sources came up praising the "busts" like QB, Tim Couch, QB, Ryan Leaf, RB, Ki-jana Carter and OT, Tony Mandarich.  For every clear "winner" there is going to be 4 or 5 clear "busts".

Higher draft picks tend to do better than lower draft picks. It's a simple fact. Have there been some high first round flops like Curtis Enis and Ki-Jana Carter? Sure. But there have also been a lot of second round flops like JJ Arrington, Maurice Morris, Eric Shelton, Tony Hollings, Ladell Betts, and Mike Cloud.

It's a numbers game. The odds clearly favor the first round picks.

A statistical study doine a couple years ago on these boards showed that hte number of top-5 RB pick flops due to other than injury was minimal, while the number of first round RB flops was on par with all other positions.In short, if you are picked top-5 and you are an RB, you are almost assuredly goign to have a succesful NFL career unless you get hurt.

 

[ChampBailey24]

IN!

 

[Capella]

Can't believe this guy is going to be in the NFC South for the next 10 years.

Houston

 

[Dancing Bear]

EBF,

Interesting point about the numbers game ...

If you assess the #1 and #2 picks of the Collegiate draft since 1982 [48 total], then you will find that 31 of them did not come even close to living up with the top billing that they were given by their draft slot. Nearly 66% of them!

That is a REALLY, REALLY high percentage of flops. Reggie Bush has talent and he has hype for sure. He also has a very high probability for being less than the billing he has received.

Incidentally, it is a 50%-50% proposition if you just consider all of the QB's or just the RB's taken as #1 or #2. To me, that is still a very high probability of not meeting expectations.

 

[EBF]

EBF,

Interesting point about the numbers game ...

If you assess the #1 and #2 picks of the Collegiate draft since 1982 [48 total], then you will find that 31 of them did not come even close to living up with the top billing that they were given by their draft slot. Nearly 66% of them!

That is a REALLY, REALLY high percentage of flops. Reggie Bush has talent and he has hype for sure. He also has a very high probability for being less than the billing he has received.

Incidentally, it is a 50%-50% proposition if you just consider all of the QB's or just the RB's taken as #1 or #2. To me, that is still a very high probability of not meeting expectations.

The data changes depending on the parameters. Perhaps your scope is too narrow. If you simply look at RBs picked in the top ten in the past decade, you'll get a much better percentage:1.05 - LaDainian Tomlinson

1.05 - Jamal Lewis

1.07 - Thomas Jones

1.04 - Edgerrin James

1.05 - Ricky Williams

1.05 - Curtis Enis - BUST

1.09 - Fred Taylor

1.06 - Lawrence Phillips - BUST

1.08 - Tim Biakabutuka - BUST

I count 3 busts and 6 solid RBs. That's a pretty good ratio.

The bottom line is that earlier generally means better odds of success. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

 

[EBF]

Just to make a point, here are the RBs chosen in the second round during the same time period:

Tatum Bell

Julius Jones

Greg Jones - BUST (so far)

DeShaun Foster

Clinton Portis

Maurice Morris - BUST

Ladell Betts - BUST

Anthony Thomas

LaMont Jordan

Travis Henry

JJ Johnson - BUST

Kevin Faulk - BUST

Joe Montgomery - BUST

Mike Cloud - BUST

Jermaine Fazande - BUST

Robert Holcombe - BUST

Tiki Barber

Byron Hanspard - BUST

Corey Dillon

Leeland McElroy - BUST

I count 9 hits out of 20 picks, and several of those "hits" are dubious players like DeShaun Foster, Tatum Bell, Anthony Thomas, and Julius Jones. So far, only Henry, Barber, Portis, and Dillon have yielded multiple seasons of top production. Jordan and Thomas have each had one very solid year. That's 6 backs with at least one very solid year out of 20 backs taken. 30%.

 

[gocats]

It's picking up steam guys!!!! Get him while he's still cheap!!!!

 

[TD32]

Just got him at the end of the 3rd!

 

[Gopher State]

I pass on this bandwagon. Everyone is writing Duce off to fast. Duce could end up being the goalline back for this year and?? Maybe a little Dunn/TJ magic, with Reggie playing the part of Dunn. I agree Reggie's got talent, but a lot of people though Kevin Jones had talent last year at this time.

 

[3nOut]

I pass on this bandwagon. Everyone is writing Duce off to fast. Duce could end up being the goalline back for this year and?? Maybe a little Dunn/TJ magic, with Reggie playing the part of Dunn. I agree Reggie's got talent, but a lot of people though Kevin Jones had talent last year at this time.

what does pittsburgh have to do with this conversation?

 

[Marc Levin]

Staley is staying put.

DEUCE, on the other hand, is having a VERY slow recovery. I will not hesitate to draft Bush in the 2nd once I see him tear it up in preseason.

I think he is everything he has been billed as and more.

I'm the one driving this train.

 

[Marc Levin]

I agree Reggie's got talent, but a lot of people though Kevin Jones had talent last year at this time.

No - Kevin Jones has talent.Reggie Bush has unbelievable, phenomenal, "once every five years" talent.As I said above, his talent level is on the LT/Marshall Faulk/Barry Sanders level of talent. Not that he'll have theat kind of success, but he has that talent level. Noone ever said KJones has "Faulk/Sanders" talent.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

I think I'm with Gopher for now. Until I hear Deuce has a major setback and won't play this year, or that he'll be relegated to no more than RB2 duties, I'll shy away from Bush before the 5th.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I am looking forward to the possibility of snagging Bush in my Dynasty auction. So I am totally on the bandwagon.

But the common theme in those video highlights is that Bush almost never gets hit at the line of scrimmage. His blocking is so good, Bush never has to shed a tackle at the line. So my question is: for the people that have watched a lot of USC games, did you get a glimpse into Bush's ability to shed an early tackle attempt? How strong is he before he gets into the secondary?

 

[Marc Levin]

I'll shy away from Bush before the 5th.

Even in 10 team leagues, you wouldn't get him in that round - you might as well have said I'll pass on Reggie Bush.If you want Bush, he is a third round pick in all the dfrafts I have been involved in. It's only going to get worse, too. As Deuce sits during the preseason or has little work, every Saints' preseason game = a Bush highlight reel.I draft in late August - if I do not draft 1-4, I am hoping for a very late 1st round pick so I can get Bush on the comeback.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I'll shy away from Bush before the 5th.

Even in 10 team leagues, you wouldn't get him in that round - you might as well have said I'll pass on Reggie Bush.If you want Bush, he is a third round pick in all the dfrafts I have been involved in. It's only going to get worse, too. As Deuce sits during the preseason or has little work, every Saints' preseason game = a Bush highlight reel.I draft in late August - if I do not draft 1-4, I am hoping for a very late 1st round pick so I can get Bush on the comeback.

 

[LawFitz]

I am looking forward to the possibility of snagging Bush in my Dynasty auction. So I am totally on the bandwagon. But the common theme in those video highlights is that Bush almost never gets hit at the line of scrimmage. His blocking is so good, Bush never has to shed a tackle at the line. So my question is: for the people that have watched a lot of USC games, did you get a glimpse into Bush's ability to shed an early tackle attempt? How strong is he before he gets into the secondary?

They need to use Bush like Brian Westbrook.10-15 carries, 5-7 catches targeted per game.Bush has deceptive power/strength for his size, but he is not a big back, nor is that his style. He moves are on par with LT's and his quickness might even be greater. But he lacks LT's size.The key to his sucess will be getting him in open space. He is about as lethal in those spots as anybody out there. If utilized properly, he doesn't need a ton of touches to get the big stats. Let McCallister shoulder the inside load and play the Lendale White role.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I am looking forward to the possibility of snagging Bush in my Dynasty auction. So I am totally on the bandwagon. But the common theme in those video highlights is that Bush almost never gets hit at the line of scrimmage. His blocking is so good, Bush never has to shed a tackle at the line. So my question is: for the people that have watched a lot of USC games, did you get a glimpse into Bush's ability to shed an early tackle attempt? How strong is he before he gets into the secondary?

They need to use Bush like Brian Westbrook.10-15 carries, 5-7 catches targeted per game.Bush has deceptive power/strength for his size, but he is not a big back, nor is that his style. He moves are on par with LT's and his quickness might even be greater. But he lacks LT's size.The key to his sucess will be getting him in open space. He is about as lethal in those spots as anybody out there. If utilized properly, he doesn't need a ton of touches to get the big stats. Let McCallister shoulder the inside load and play the Lendale White role.

The only problem with allowing McAllister to shoulder the inside load is he is not healthy, and has not been very good the last two years. Tiki Barber is 5'10" 195lbs and has carried the ball 300+ times .... why can't Reggie do the same? Jamal Lewis is a huge RB and didn't even average over 4 ypc last year. Size and weight do not make Rb's great inside runners. Vision, change of direction, and accelleration do make great backs, all of which Reggie has.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

I have to jump on board. I took Bush with my 2nd round pick in a startup keep 3 league.

Official list of Bandwagons

Phillip Rivers

Reggie Bush

 

[Marc Levin]

I have to jump on board. I took Bush with my 2nd round pick in a startup keep 3 league.

Nicely done - by next year, he is defintely going to be the "man" - what will you give up to keep your 2nd round pick?

 

[duaneok66]

I am looking forward to the possibility of snagging Bush in my Dynasty auction. So I am totally on the bandwagon. But the common theme in those video highlights is that Bush almost never gets hit at the line of scrimmage. His blocking is so good, Bush never has to shed a tackle at the line. So my question is: for the people that have watched a lot of USC games, did you get a glimpse into Bush's ability to shed an early tackle attempt? How strong is he before he gets into the secondary?

They need to use Bush like Brian Westbrook.10-15 carries, 5-7 catches targeted per game.Bush has deceptive power/strength for his size, but he is not a big back, nor is that his style. He moves are on par with LT's and his quickness might even be greater. But he lacks LT's size.The key to his sucess will be getting him in open space. He is about as lethal in those spots as anybody out there. If utilized properly, he doesn't need a ton of touches to get the big stats. Let McCallister shoulder the inside load and play the Lendale White role.

The only problem with allowing McAllister to shoulder the inside load is he is not healthy, and has not been very good the last two years. Tiki Barber is 5'10" 195lbs and has carried the ball 300+ times .... why can't Reggie do the same? Jamal Lewis is a huge RB and didn't even average over 4 ypc last year. Size and weight do not make Rb's great inside runners. Vision, change of direction, and accelleration do make great backs, all of which Reggie has.

Barber is 200, and please why does everyone use that argument? "so and so did it, so why cant (insert player) do it"In this case, Barber is the exception; not the rule . . .

 

[EBF]

I am looking forward to the possibility of snagging Bush in my Dynasty auction. So I am totally on the bandwagon. But the common theme in those video highlights is that Bush almost never gets hit at the line of scrimmage. His blocking is so good, Bush never has to shed a tackle at the line. So my question is: for the people that have watched a lot of USC games, did you get a glimpse into Bush's ability to shed an early tackle attempt? How strong is he before he gets into the secondary?

They need to use Bush like Brian Westbrook.10-15 carries, 5-7 catches targeted per game.Bush has deceptive power/strength for his size, but he is not a big back, nor is that his style. He moves are on par with LT's and his quickness might even be greater. But he lacks LT's size.The key to his sucess will be getting him in open space. He is about as lethal in those spots as anybody out there. If utilized properly, he doesn't need a ton of touches to get the big stats. Let McCallister shoulder the inside load and play the Lendale White role.

The only problem with allowing McAllister to shoulder the inside load is he is not healthy, and has not been very good the last two years. Tiki Barber is 5'10" 195lbs and has carried the ball 300+ times .... why can't Reggie do the same? Jamal Lewis is a huge RB and didn't even average over 4 ypc last year. Size and weight do not make Rb's great inside runners. Vision, change of direction, and accelleration do make great backs, all of which Reggie has.

Barber is 200, and please why does everyone use that argument? "so and so did it, so why cant (insert player) do it"In this case, Barber is the exception; not the rule . . .

Clinton Portis used to play at about 195-200 pounds. The average weight for an NFL RB is something like 210-215 pounds. Bush isn't far from that range.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Barber is 200, and please why does everyone use that argument? "so and so did it, so why cant (insert player) do it"In this case, Barber is the exception; not the rule . . .

There is a long list of RB's who have been succesfull at 200-210 lbs ..... if you want to ignore that list just to try to say Bush can not carry the load because of weight is just you being an ignorant Bush hater. Everyone uses Barber as an example because he had a huge year last year.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Warrick Dunn weighs 180 lbs and was in the Top 10 RB's for Rushing yards last year. Im just giving you examples of weight not playing a huge role. Please continue to ignore.

 

[eoMMan]

I think one of my fantasy magazines has him listed at 210....

Also, the guy is strong. He benched more than LenDale White at the combine (225lbs 24 times). He's not some frail little pansy (ala Tinker Bell).

 

[BoltzNBrew]

I have to jump on board. I took Bush with my 2nd round pick in a startup keep 3 league.

Nicely done - by next year, he is defintely going to be the "man" - what will you give up to keep your 2nd round pick?

Nothing, we don't have contracts or anything like that. If I keep 2 I get a 3rd round pick, otherwise its just a straight keep 3 league. I used a combination of the Dynasty and Redraft rankings for this draft. I drafted in the 11 hole and took Peyton at 1.11 and Bush at 2.2 who was ranked 8th in dynasty at the time.

 

[jdoggydogg]

We have a $100 Dynasty auction coming up. My guess is this is how the top rookie RBs will go for in my league this year:

Bush $25

Addai $15

Maroney $8

Williams $8

I will report back in late August with the results.

 

[srnohav]

As a rebuttal I would say that 1) and 4) are pretty much not helpful in assessing things for me especially as it pertains to whether Bush or any other 1st Round pick will actually perform in the NFL.  The data from NFL drafts and the data from scouting is a risky assessment proposition, and the same sorts of data and sources came up praising the "busts" like QB, Tim Couch, QB, Ryan Leaf, RB, Ki-jana Carter and OT, Tony Mandarich.  For every clear "winner" there is going to be 4 or 5 clear "busts".

Higher draft picks tend to do better than lower draft picks. It's a simple fact. Have there been some high first round flops like Curtis Enis and Ki-Jana Carter? Sure. But there have also been a lot of second round flops like JJ Arrington, Maurice Morris, Eric Shelton, Tony Hollings, Ladell Betts, and Mike Cloud.

It's a numbers game. The odds clearly favor the first round picks.

A statistical study doine a couple years ago on these boards showed that hte number of top-5 RB pick flops due to other than injury was minimal, while the number of first round RB flops was on par with all other positions.In short, if you are picked top-5 and you are an RB, you are almost assuredly goign to have a succesful NFL career unless you get hurt.

Yeah, Lawrence Phillips was a stud

 

[Marc Levin]

Yeah, Lawrence Phillips was a stud

Nothing like using one exception to try and disprove the rule - well done.The statistics for top-5 RBs being successful in the NFL is OVERWHELMING. Injury - not failed perofrmance - comprises the ABSOLUTE GREATEST reason for top-5 RB busts.