Reliability of Defensive SOS - strength of schedule (1 Viewer)

[budsandredons]

Correct me if I'm wrong ... but all of the current SOS information is based upon last years statistics.

When should we put credence into current years statistics and start paying more attention to weekly projections etc ...

The SOS isn't updated till week 5 ??? 6 ???

I certainly realize that does take a few weeks to understand the change in schemes/coaches/positions - anybody have any general rules of thumb to apply to when to hit the panic button and when to stay the course.

thanks for all the insight ...

 

[Jene Bramel]

Correct me if I'm wrong ... but all of the current SOS information is based upon last years statistics.When should we put credence into current years statistics and start paying more attention to weekly projections etc ...The SOS isn't updated till week 5 ??? 6 ??? I certainly realize that does take a few weeks to understand the change in schemes/coaches/positions - anybody have any general rules of thumb to apply to when to hit the panic button and when to stay the course.thanks for all the insight ...

FBG (and Clayton in particular) generates much of its forward SOS data from our own 2007 forward projections. I'm not sure when Clayton begins to phase out the projections and rely on current year stats, but I think Week 5 or 6 is a safe bet. I'm not sure I have any general rules of thumb with the SOS this time of year, other than to rely more on those matchups with established track records on both sides and few major changes by talent/injury, i.e. the CIN offense vs BAL defense moreso than the ARI offense vs the SF defense.More specifically with regard to navigating the first month and player production, I like to preach aggressive patience. Sounds like an oxymoron but it really isn't. You want to patient with those players that have above-average talent or track records, especially when there are no major changes in their situations. You want to aggressively search for the reasons behind an unexpectedly good or poor start to production. When you're confident you've got the situation figured, you'll know when it's right to hold vs cut and pursue the waiver wonder vs let someone else take the risk. You won't always be right, but a sound decision making tree will keep you well on the positive side of the ledger.aggressive patience

 

[Anthony Borbely]

You want to aggressively search for the reasons behind an unexpectedly good or poor start to production.

I usually want to see at least 4 weeks worth, if not more.

 

[budsandredons]

It is just difficult when you have 2 stud players and you want to micro manage and pick the better one.

SOS helps quite a bit on weekly matchups ... but not till there is enough current info to warrant trend spotting.