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Ren's old crypto thread || we know how to buy this stuff now (1 Viewer)

Now through 800 to 780.

I hear you about the bottom being zero, but you would have thought ETH has the strongest case for long term value.

 
ren hoek said:
Where do we think the bottom is?  

I don't think we can hit a real rock bottom til the tether thing sorts out.  
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I agree with you. People are bracing for it now, but if that comes out real bad there’s definitely more on the downside.

 
Miro Z said:
Now through 800 to 780.

I hear you about the bottom being zero, but you would have thought ETH has the strongest case for long term value.
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The funny thing to me is that I don’t really see the long term value of the coins. I see the tech and exchanges as the long term value. People who hoard currencies now lose money the longer they leave it in cash due to inflation. That’s the point of investing whether it’s real estate or stock or interest bearing. Even metals like gold have other uses to help their value.

To me holding on to coins hoping the increase in value makes no sense to me. If the ETH blockchain works best, why can’t Amex just create their own coin to work on it? It’ll be easy to do and it’s just an exchange not using the current centralized credit card/bank networks.

 
stbugs said:
The funny thing to me is that I don’t really see the long term value of the coins. I see the tech and exchanges as the long term value. People who hoard currencies now lose money the longer they leave it in cash due to inflation. That’s the point of investing whether it’s real estate or stock or interest bearing. Even metals like gold have other uses to help their value.

To me holding on to coins hoping the increase in value makes no sense to me. If the ETH blockchain works best, why can’t Amex just create their own coin to work on it? It’ll be easy to do and it’s just an exchange not using the current centralized credit card/bank networks.
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My long term price target for all the current coins is 0.  Amex/Visa/MC/Discover have an established network of payment points globally that is as fast as you could ever want.  tx costs are high, but there is no promise that any crypto can sufficiently bring costs down as a drop in replacement for those payment forwarders.

The main issue I see is that crypto is too decentralized.  If they (I say they, but this is more of a "they") went in as a 5th payment provider and said we will charge 25 points on a tx, and paid out interest to the holders it might work.  You could then layer on top of this credit providers, and now you have a system.  Not a single one seems interested in trying to arbitrage the current payment fee system.  So here we are, just a bunch of nerds trying to buy lambos with dark web money.

As a method to get FOREX fees down it may serve that purpose better, but those fees have been dropping for awhile anyways.  

As it is the thing is fun to watch, I just people don't get hurt too bad as the current incarnation drops to 0.  

 
SkyRattlers said:
Considering that Tether has been at .997 for the last few days I'm thinking this dip down to .94 is a sign that people think the bottom has been reached and want out of Tether and back into the other coins.

Wait, where are you seeing .94 Tether? I just went and looked and I'm seeing .991
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It was at .971 yesterday at different points.  I definitely saw it at .94 this morning when I woke up.  The differential between btc pricing on usdt vs. usd exchanges got as high as $400 yesterday.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'm debating placing a speculative bet where I'd be willing to lose it all - what is my easiest way to buy BAT? 
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Credit card on Uphold.com.  Not sure how long it would take you to get registered/verified for that, but I don't think we've seen the end of this just yet.  

 
ren hoek said:
Credit card on Uphold.com.  Not sure how long it would take you to get registered/verified for that, but I don't think we've seen the end of this just yet.  
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I'm buying with the intention of huge gains or 100% losses, these swings will all just be noise for me. 

Either they accomplish what they are trying and they'll be worth boatloads, or they fail.

 
culdeus said:
My long term price target for all the current coins is 0.  Amex/Visa/MC/Discover have an established network of payment points globally that is as fast as you could ever want.  tx costs are high, but there is no promise that any crypto can sufficiently bring costs down as a drop in replacement for those payment forwarders.

The main issue I see is that crypto is too decentralized.  If they (I say they, but this is more of a "they") went in as a 5th payment provider and said we will charge 25 points on a tx, and paid out interest to the holders it might work.  You could then layer on top of this credit providers, and now you have a system.  Not a single one seems interested in trying to arbitrage the current payment fee system.  So here we are, just a bunch of nerds trying to buy lambos with dark web money.

As a method to get FOREX fees down it may serve that purpose better, but those fees have been dropping for awhile anyways.  

As it is the thing is fun to watch, I just people don't get hurt too bad as the current incarnation drops to 0.  
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FWIW (not much right now) Amex is using Ripple right now for international payments.

 
stbugs said:
Not knowing anything about what they are doing, does “using” mean Ripple’s tech or actually trading their coin? If the former then that’s exactly what I think will happen. 
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“It’s bewildering,” says Joseph Lubin, the founder of ConsenSys, a startup that develops applications based on the Ethereum blockchain, the technology used for Ether. “Effectively it’s a totally useless token except that it is being used by that company to make a lot of money to fund some of their activities.” There are 100 billion of the tokens and, according to Ripple’s website, the company holds about 61 billion—with a value of $1.31 each on Jan. 25, or about $80 billion total. Most are held in escrow and can be sold only in limited chunks over time to avoid crashing the market. Ripple has sold more than $185 million in XRP since September 2016, according to reports the private company publishes.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-25/ripple-wants-xrp-to-be-bitcoin-for-banks-if-only-the-banks-wanted-it

Doesn't seem like banks have any desire to actually use the token.  Still no idea why everyone was up in arms over this thing when there were tons of gains to be had elsewhere.  

 
GoBirds said:
Had a friend mention this to me this weekend and that he told his wife they needed to invest $20k in it over a year ago and she shot it down......apparently they would be retired right now if they did? I have no understanding of this but assume I missed the boat. 
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i guess if they bought ETH over a year ago, they'd have around $2 million now.

 
eoMMan said:
ren, are you still optimistic for the long term? Are you still in anything or did you get out?
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About a week ago I had a complete meltdown on Discord over the prospect of not realizing most of the gains I made last year.  I was invested about 30/70% gold/crypto, which was fine when it wasn't a life-changing sum of money.  But I relented, moved a lot the other direction, and am now roughly 66/34%.  Figured I'd hate trading my men away but it was a huge relief.  I feel completely blackpilled and want the market to crash so we can start over with some earnest, organic growth.  

I am optimistic longterm.  I'm actually bullish on crypto relative to other markets.  But on a much bigger scale I feel like we're facing a huge, prolonged bear market, much worse than 2008.  There's a good video about the 'everything bubble' by Mike Maloney.  Most people will find it pretty bleak but I think most of the economic indices are pointing that direction.  Crypto is important but I see it getting wiped out hard in the event of a major collapse.  Even without that, I think most of us that got in early benefited heavily from market manipulation the past year or so, with Tether pumps and some skewed institutional investment in Bitcoin.  There's some big whales in crypto; the disparity is even worse in crypto than traditional markets.  

I think XLM and BAT are really nice blue chips.  I currently hold 1.07 eth, 16k bat, 10.8k xlm, 2k chainlink and 30k safex. The last one's kind of a meme project but I like it so whatever.  

Basically I think crypto markets will easily surpass 1-2T$ easily within the next few years.  But not before externalities way beyond crypto's control turn everything into a bloody massacre for a while.  Maybe a long time.  

I've talked here and there about Charlie Lee (LTC founder) and the signals he sends sometimes.  He tweeted about the Chinese crackdown on exchanges.  He sold all his holdings pretty much at the very top late last year, far and away one of the best times to exit the market.  We beefed about it a little bit.  And he tweeted this (when markets were absolutely euphoric).  He's smart, real smart.  That or incredibly well connected.  His brother Bobby runs BTCC, an exchange based out in China.  Pretty much just staying put until I feel like some chickens have come home to roost.  

 
ren hoek said:
About a week ago I had a complete meltdown on Discord over the prospect of not realizing most of the gains I made last year.  I was invested about 30/70% gold/crypto, which was fine when it wasn't a life-changing sum of money.  But I relented, moved a lot the other direction, and am now roughly 66/34%.  Figured I'd hate trading my men away but it was a huge relief.  I feel completely blackpilled and want the market to crash so we can start over with some earnest, organic growth.  

I am optimistic longterm.  I'm actually bullish on crypto relative to other markets.  But on a much bigger scale I feel like we're facing a huge, prolonged bear market, much worse than 2008.  There's a good video about the 'everything bubble' by Mike Maloney.  Most people will find it pretty bleak but I think most of the economic indices are pointing that direction.  Crypto is important but I see it getting wiped out hard in the event of a major collapse.  Even without that, I think most of us that got in early benefited heavily from market manipulation the past year or so, with Tether pumps and some skewed institutional investment in Bitcoin.  There's some big whales in crypto; the disparity is even worse in crypto than traditional markets.  

I think XLM and BAT are really nice blue chips.  I currently hold 1.07 eth, 16k bat, 10.8k xlm, 2k chainlink and 30k safex. The last one's kind of a meme project but I like it so whatever.  

Basically I think crypto markets will easily surpass 1-2T$ easily within the next few years.  But not before externalities way beyond crypto's control turn everything into a bloody massacre for a while.  Maybe a long time.  

I've talked here and there about Charlie Lee (LTC founder) and the signals he sends sometimes.  He tweeted about the Chinese crackdown on exchanges.  He sold all his holdings pretty much at the very top late last year, far and away one of the best times to exit the market.  We beefed about it a little bit.  And he tweeted this (when markets were absolutely euphoric).  He's smart, real smart.  That or incredibly well connected.  His brother Bobby runs BTCC, an exchange based out in China.  Pretty much just staying put until I feel like some chickens have come home to roost.  
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I’m certainly no financial analyst and in brutal honesty—I was a complete skeptic of the crypto market at the beginning.    After much time following this thread—I made a decision to purchase a single bitcoin when it crashed from $1100 to $800 a while back.   I ended up selling half of that single bitcoin to my buddy that was storing it for me for $8700 when bitcoin had hit $17500.  Since then—the crypto market has regressed a lot—but I do think that there is a place for cryptos in our markets.  I do think there is a lot of turmoil ahead and it will be a very volatile market.  With that being said—i think there will be volatility in a lot of the major markets ahead.  Because of this—I have to say that I do like your transition into gold.  I am a big believer in the long term prospects of silver and gold.  Yes—while the rising interests rates could lead to a stronger dollar (which generally isn’t great for commodities)—I think that volatility in both the regular and crypto markets will make the world of precious metals look like a safe haven.  I also like the prospects of gold/silver in the event of unexpected geo-political events.   Lastly—if you look at the percentage gains of the stock and crypto markets—the precious metals markets haven’t had the same meteoric rises.  I think there is more room for them to grow—and I think they are more insulated from bubble like drop.   In the long run—I do like the precious metals a lot. I do think that if one wants to invest in cryptos—and they do so with the mindset that the cryptos are more of an “asset” than they are “currencies”—I think they should balance those virtual assets with tangible assets like silver/gold.   I think they are a great counterbalance with decent/steady upside.  

 
ren hoek said:
About a week ago I had a complete meltdown on Discord over the prospect of not realizing most of the gains I made last year.  I was invested about 30/70% gold/crypto, which was fine when it wasn't a life-changing sum of money.  But I relented, moved a lot the other direction, and am now roughly 66/34%.  Figured I'd hate trading my men away but it was a huge relief.  I feel completely blackpilled and want the market to crash so we can start over with some earnest, organic growth.  

I am optimistic longterm.  I'm actually bullish on crypto relative to other markets.  But on a much bigger scale I feel like we're facing a huge, prolonged bear market, much worse than 2008.  There's a good video about the 'everything bubble' by Mike Maloney.  Most people will find it pretty bleak but I think most of the economic indices are pointing that direction.  Crypto is important but I see it getting wiped out hard in the event of a major collapse.  Even without that, I think most of us that got in early benefited heavily from market manipulation the past year or so, with Tether pumps and some skewed institutional investment in Bitcoin.  There's some big whales in crypto; the disparity is even worse in crypto than traditional markets.  

I think XLM and BAT are really nice blue chips.  I currently hold 1.07 eth, 16k bat, 10.8k xlm, 2k chainlink and 30k safex. The last one's kind of a meme project but I like it so whatever.  

Basically I think crypto markets will easily surpass 1-2T$ easily within the next few years.  But not before externalities way beyond crypto's control turn everything into a bloody massacre for a while.  Maybe a long time.  

I've talked here and there about Charlie Lee (LTC founder) and the signals he sends sometimes.  He tweeted about the Chinese crackdown on exchanges.  He sold all his holdings pretty much at the very top late last year, far and away one of the best times to exit the market.  We beefed about it a little bit.  And he tweeted this (when markets were absolutely euphoric).  He's smart, real smart.  That or incredibly well connected.  His brother Bobby runs BTCC, an exchange based out in China.  Pretty much just staying put until I feel like some chickens have come home to roost.  
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A few things:

First, I applaud you for taking profits in crypto. As other crypto investors are certainly learning, pigs get slaughtered in all markets. I’m basically 100% certain a lot of people have gone from large gains to underwater in a short span recently, I think their pain will only get worse.

In reference to gold; as you might’ve noticed from prior posts, I’m a proponent of gold... HOWEVER - rates are rising, gold has no yield, gold almost always falls in rising rate worlds, so I’d be careful holding that much gold right now. Rates are absolutely on the rise, it’s not a question of if, the question is how rapid it happens. 

Recession/doom & gloom/everything bubble; The Atlanta Fed has a Q1 GDP growth forecast of 5.4% (hence, the fear of rapid rise in rates), unemployment is hovering around 4%, wages are rising - that’s basically the opposite of a recession. Now, we’re late cycle, no question about it, but how much juice is in the cycle? I’d guess at a minimum 18 months and a maximum 36-42 months... Basically, it’s highly unlikely a recession is in the immediate future.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Lastly—if you look at the percentage gains of the stock and crypto markets—the precious metals markets haven’t had the same meteoric rises.  I think there is more room for them to grow—and I think they are more insulated from bubble like drop.   In the long run—I do like the precious metals a lot. I do think that if one wants to invest in cryptos—and they do so with the mindset that the cryptos are more of an “asset” than they are “currencies”—I think they should balance those virtual assets with tangible assets like silver/gold.   I think they are a great counterbalance with decent/steady upside.  
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For me it just boils down to what's the best 'store of value.'  I don't know what that is, but it's hard to argue with something that withstood the test of time for thousands of years.  It witnessed hundreds of currencies rise and fall.  I'm actually a pretty timid investor.  Which makes the full-bore crypto cycle over the past year pretty funny.  I think it has to do with hedging against what I feel is the avarice of traditional markets and a general distrust/resentment of the monetary system.  I just want for savings to build toward something down the road rather than depreciating in a bank account.

 
ren hoek said:
Basically I think crypto markets will easily surpass 1-2T$ easily within the next few years.  But not before externalities way beyond crypto's control turn everything into a bloody massacre for a while.  Maybe a long time.
Click to expand...
I still don't get this. I just can't imagine the coins themselves ever having that kind of value. Honestly, I think a big impediment to crypto-currencies being actually useful for real transactions is this investment bubble thought that the coins are the real value. I mean, if you really think about transactions of transferring any currency, the currency itself isn't an investment. I hand someone at a store a credit card where Visa takes a % of the transaction and I get USD taken out of my account and the store gets USD added to theirs. If blockchain makes it such that that % is less or makes it easier for me to do international transactions, that is great, but again I and the store will still end up with our home currencies taken out/added to our accounts. I can't imagine everyone in the US ever not using US dollars or any other country not using their currency, so even with a bitcoin or something else, if the transaction is fast enough the "value" of the coin in the transaction wouldn't matter.

Maybe I am missing something, but I haven't heard anything from anywhere that makes me feel like bitcoin or something else will takeover global currencies. I remember looking at articles saying bitcoin will be worth $1 million or basically be bigger than the entire S&P 500/US economy. That part makes no sense to me. Crypto-currencies taking over Visa's market share, definitely, but again Visa "coins" aren't worth anything that exchange so to speak just takes a percentage of the transaction.

 
stbugs said:
I still don't get this. I just can't imagine the coins themselves ever having that kind of value. Honestly, I think a big impediment to crypto-currencies being actually useful for real transactions is this investment bubble thought that the coins are the real value. I mean, if you really think about transactions of transferring any currency, the currency itself isn't an investment. I hand someone at a store a credit card where Visa takes a % of the transaction and I get USD taken out of my account and the store gets USD added to theirs. If blockchain makes it such that that % is less or makes it easier for me to do international transactions, that is great, but again I and the store will still end up with our home currencies taken out/added to our accounts. I can't imagine everyone in the US ever not using US dollars or any other country not using their currency, so even with a bitcoin or something else, if the transaction is fast enough the "value" of the coin in the transaction wouldn't matter.

Maybe I am missing something, but I haven't heard anything from anywhere that makes me feel like bitcoin or something else will takeover global currencies. I remember looking at articles saying bitcoin will be worth $1 million or basically be bigger than the entire S&P 500/US economy. That part makes no sense to me. Crypto-currencies taking over Visa's market share, definitely, but again Visa "coins" aren't worth anything that exchange so to speak just takes a percentage of the transaction.
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Where crypto currencies have a future is in international trade. Currently the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, meaning most trade between countries is done with US dollars. That was established in 1944, because the US had the most gold, so the US dollar was a claim on US gold, and other nation's currencies were tied to US dollars, making all nation's currencies tied to gold (indirectly with the US dollar being the agent).

The problem is as the worlds economy grows so does the need to us dollars for international trade. Think of it this way, if you lived on an island isolated from the world and everyone on the island decided that gold is the currency, everything is fine until your economy grows and people start complaining that there's not enough gold. The easy solution is to tell your miners to go into the gold mines and mine some more gold. As long as they can keep mining it, there will be enough gold to keep the economy growing... until there's not enough gold on your island to keep up with economic growth.

That's what happened with US gold supplies. The rate at which other countries were exchanging their dollars for gold (especially France... those bastards) was so high, that Nixon ended the gold standard. Since 1971 the US dollar is no longer exchangeable for gold, and thus we entered the fiat currency era. 

But again, the world still needs more world reserve currency as the world economy grows. So how does the US provide that? Simply by importing more than we export. For example, we buy $300 billion in foreign goods, but only sell $200 billion of our goods to foreign countries. The net result is, we produce $200 billion in exports, consume $300 billion in imports, and foreign countries now have $100 billion in US dollars in their wallets. So now France has more US dollars to buy oil from Iran, China has more US dollars to buy boomerangs from Australia, etc, etc... This is why the US has run a trade deficit every year for the past 40+ years. 

Now why would this system end? Because the US is a burden on the world. In order for us to run a trade deficit every single year so that the world can get the increase in US dollars they need for international trade, Americans have to consume more than we produce. Do you think America gets to live the way we do simply because we're just so much better than they rest of the world? We're not better. We're simply the country that issues the currency and modern money mechanics results in that country getting to live like fat pigs by consuming more than we produce. 

Why would this system end? Because eventually the rest of the world gets sick of us living like this. 

How will this system end? The rest of the world develops and implements a world reserve currency where the benefits of issuing the currency are distributed fairly among all countries instead of just being consumed by one country. A crypto currrency could not only do that, it could do that tomorrow. But it won't be one of the existing crypto currencies. A coalition of world nations will develop their own.

When this happens, all the countries in the world will benefit from this change... except one. We will go from being a country that consumes more than it produces to a country that at least has to produce as much as it consumes. What will this look like? Well, prior to the US dollar being the world's reserve currency, it used to be the British pound. So look at what Britain was like in the 50's, 60's, and 70's. In other words, we will live in a ####hole.  

 
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