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Reprise your rookie rankings (1 Viewer)

Interesting to see Michael so high there. I took him at #4 and #5 in my last two drafts after getting him at #10 to #15 all summer, but figured I was reaching.
What is the thought of Michael so high? Is the assumption that he will take over for Lynch in 1-2 years, ahead of Turbin? Just seems like a huge jump based solely on a couple of preseason games (vs. #2 defenses?)
Premium position, potentially unlimited talent, great situation (in time) and the character stuff has been totally silent.

As for why I took him there instead of trading back... I'd already had 8-9 drafts and took Michael in all but a couple where he was either rostered or I didn't have an early pick. So several of my league mates knew I liked him a lot. And by the last couple drafts the buzz was already out there.

Since I already thought he should be a top-5 pick and I wasn't really sure where his stock had risen to I just went ahead and took him rather than trading back and messing around with the chance that I'd get sniped. It's a sick feeling when you get beaten to a guy you think is an elite prospect.
im all for getting your guy and all, but this seems to be a mistake, trade back and get more assets. You passed on Austin and lacy in one league I see, I know its hard to trade down sometimes.

IIRC we played in a few leagues together and you always had the same dudes on your teams, mendenhall, felix jones, stewart.

might want to switch it up and be a little risk adverse. If Michael busts hes costin you in a lot of leagues. and I don't think you maximized the value of your picks either

 
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Gio Bernard
Cordelle Patterson
DeAndre Hopkins
Christine Michael
Eddie Lacy
Tavon Austin
Tyler Eifert
Travis Kelce
Zac Stacy
Monte Ball
LeVeon Bell
Keenan Allen
Stedman Bailey
Kenbrell Thompkins
Quinton Patton
EJ Manuel
Marcus Wheaton
Robert Woods
Aaron Dobson
Terrance Williams
Kenny Stills
Vance McDonald
Marcus Lattimore
Zach Ertz
Knile Davis
Ciere Wood
Joseph Randle
Dernard Robinson
Marquise Goodwin
Justin Hunter
Geno Smith
Matt Pryor

The remaining players I consider more on watch status than players I would roster right now (depends on roster size of course).

Mike Glennon
Jordan Reed
Josh Boyce
Tavarres King cut today by Broncos. Move to the bottom of the list if picked up later.
Charles Johnson cut today by Packers. Move to the bottom of the list if picked up later.
Stepfan Taylor
Andre Ellington
Gavin Escobar
Zach Sudfeld
Bennie Cunningham

CJ Anderson
Michael Cox
Khiry Robinson
Kenjon Barner
Marlon Brown
Levine Toilolono
Marquess Wilson
Johnathan Franklin
Justin Brown
Aaron Mellette
David Ausberry

I am tempted to move some of these players from watch list up because they are closer to playing time than others ahead of them. But maintaining a long term view, I didn't. Many of these players will ultimately not be worth a spot at all.

I added Geno Smith and Matt Pryor because I guess these QB are starting for their teams week 1? I really do not like either player or any of the rookie QB from this class. But begrudgingly I list them.

I did actually think Manuel looked pretty good. Only rookie QB that looked decent to me at all. Well I take that back Glennon did fairly well and I sort of almost liked what I read about him as a prospect. The Bucs are not completely decided on Freeman either.
 
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bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
im all for getting your guy and all, but this seems to be a mistake, trade back and get more assets. You passed on Austin and lacy in one league I see, I know its hard to trade down sometimes.IIRC we played in a few leagues together and you always had the same dudes on your teams, mendenhall, felix jones, stewart.

might want to switch it up and be a little risk adverse. If Michael busts hes costin you in a lot of leagues. and I don't think you maximized the value of your picks either
I also have Charles, R Bush, D Thomas, VJax, A Johnson, Garcon, Shorts and Gronk in more than half my leagues. Win some, lose some.

I'd rather swing for the fences with a prospect I think has elite upside than draft guys I don't believe in. And who cares if you miss with a pick -- you get more every year. Hitting on a stud with 40% of your firsts, 10% of your seconds and a WW pickup every odd year leaves you much better off than a roster full of guys who might give you a few years of RB2 or WR3 production.

 
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What does Khiry Robinson have to do to get some love? I know he was going against guys soon to be cut but at least he dominated those guys which is more than I can say for some guys still being listed.

I also don't understand the crowd that says "My rankings are basically unchanged since March." What has to happen for them to change? I understand sticking to your initial evaluation and not getting caught up in pre-season hoopla but to not drop a guy like Franklin considerably at this point and elevate Thompkins seems a bit stubborn and rigid (just as an example). Some guys take time and some guys are Curtis Enis.

 
Good call Papa Georgio. I do not much follow the Saints so Robinson was not on my radar. I will add him to the watch list. As detailed by the following article the Saints have done well finding undrafted RB who have made some careers for themselves.

When it comes to finding undrafted talent at the running back position, it's hard to argue that anyone does it better than the New Orleans Saints.
When Saints fans think about the Sean Payton era, there are many accolades and contributions that immediately come to mind. Of course, the magical 2009 season, the signing of Drew Brees, the emergence of lower round draft picks like Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, and Marques Colston, the record setting offenses. We have enjoyed an era of success that no Saints fan takes for granted. This is due to smart talent evaluation and a coaching staff that seems to get the most out of players that may not have been highly thought of by the draft "experts."

Since 2006, the Saints have drafted two running backs in the first round. Reggie Bush was the obvious pick in 2006 as the Saints so desperately needed a game-changer on offense following the 3-13 season. Reggie had some great moments in a Saints uniform, but never became the Pro Bowl stud that he was expected to be. The off-season of 2011 featured the lockout and an improbable return for Reggie, leading to the drafting of Mark Ingram. When the lockout ended, the Saints were able to add the dynamic Darren Sproles to the mix. So far, Ingram has also failed to meet his lofty expectations. However, the Saints have adopted what seems to be a yearly tradition: finding undrafted running backs who can contribute to the team in some way.

It all started in 2007, with an undrafted free agent out of Illinois. While the Saints roster already had Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush, 4th round pick Antonio Pittman, and veteran Aaron Stecker, it was Pierre Thomas who emerged during the 2007 preseason. With 33 carries for 190 yards (5.8 YPC), 3 rushing TDs, and 6 receptions for 95 yards, the production of PT could not be ignored. Pittman never received a regular season touch as a Saint and Pierre Thomas is still a major part of this offense today.

While 2008 was Lynell Hamilton's first preseason, it was 2009 that earned him serious consideration for a roster spot. After 40 carries, 177 yards (4.4 YPC) rushing and 10 receptions, 104 yards receiving during the preseason, the Saints had a player who could contribute if/when Deuce, Reggie, or Thomas went down with an injury. Hamilton did have his number called a few times during the Saints' Super Bowl run, which included a TD run in the 45-14 victory against the Cardinals in the divisional round.

The 2010 preseason introduced Saints Nation to Chris Ivory. I remember being amazed by how hard this kid ran. His lone reception was a 76-yard TD. With Deuce no longer on the team, it seemed like the Saints found their next bull rusher. Ivory went on to lead the team in rushing in his rookie season and instantly became a fan favorite. This year, the Saints traded this undrafted free agent for what turned out to be an opportunity to draft the potential Saints nose tackle of the future, John Jenkins.

In 2011, another undrafted rookie free agent running back had an impressive preseason. Joique Bell had 31 carries, 182 yards (5.9 YPC), 1 rushing TD, with 9 receptions for 139 yards. This time, the Saints were so loaded with running backs (Sproles, Thomas, Ivory, Ingram) that this kid never had his shot in a Saints uniform. In 2012, he was arguably the Detroit Lions' most consistent all around RB, averaging five yards per carry while adding 52 receptions for 485 yards.

It happened again in 2012. This time, Travaris Cadet's preseason impact was enough to force the Saints to carry five running backs. While he had a rather mediocre 39 carries for 132 yards, he had an impressive 30 catches for 246 yards and 2 TDs in 5 games. He also had a decent showing as a return man, which ultimately was his main role during the regular season.

Does Khiry Robinson have what it takes to continue this trend of unexpected running back talent?

Robinson transferred to West Texas A&M after earning his associate's degree from Blinn College. In 2012, Khiry was a huge part of the offense, rushing for 1,621 yards (6.6 YPC) with 15 TDs in 13 games. He also added 38 receptions for 430 yards and 4 TDs. At 6'0", 220 pounds Robinson certainly passes the eye test with his tough, physical running style while having the ability to make tacklers miss. He doesn't have excellent speed (about a mid 4.6 sec in the 40), but seems to have good instincts. Just take a look at this video. I simply see Chris Ivory type of potential here, except with better hands.

While most of us may not have heard of Khiry Robinson, many analysts of the college game looked at Robinson as a sleeper in this year's draft. Most of them love his all around game (including his pass blocking ability) and his natural football instincts. He has not had the opportunity to play against the better defensive talent at the college level, but there have been plenty of NFL players that have followed the same path of emerging from a smaller school. If Robinson proves to have an excellent work ethic and continues to develop, he may be the next running back to have a big preseason. A preseason that Coach Payton simply cannot ignore.

The Saints seem set at running back in 2013. Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram, and Pierre Thomas are locks to make the roster. It seems likely that Cadet is part of the future plans as well. However, if Robinson continues to prove that he has the ability to run hard, block, and catch the ball out of the backfield, Cadet's future with this team may be on the line. I know it's too early to tell, but recent history tells us not to count out the new running back in camp. I'm looking forward to seeing if Robinson is the real deal and if the Saints found another diamond in the rough.

http://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/2013/6/19/4440808/khiry-robinson-saints-undrafted-running-back
I will find a spot for him on the watch list. Thank you for pointing him out.

 
Just so you know, for late drafters here is how the draft shook up for us last night.

After moves, I Finished with 2, 7, 11, 14, 17

1 - Gio

2 - Lacy

3 - Austin

4 - Ball

5 - Hopkins

6 - Bell

7 - Michael

8 - Thompkins

9 - Wheaton (same owner as 1.08)

10 - Patterson

11 - Lattimore

12 - Dobson

13 - Still (same owner as 1.12)

14 - Allen

15 - skipped (brain fart by worse owner ever) (he actually took Edelman)

16 - Woods

17 - Kelce (my pick, was super high on him and feared he would go at 18, 20 and 24 as the guy had 3 picks and is a Chiefs fan, I know I reached)

18 - Stacy

19 - Hunter

20 - Patton

21 - Eifert

22 - Davis

23 - Terrance Williams

24 - Randle

 
Just so you know, for late drafters here is how the draft shook up for us last night.

After moves, I Finished with 2, 7, 11, 14, 17

1 - Gio

2 - Lacy

3 - Austin

4 - Ball

5 - Hopkins

6 - Bell

7 - Michael

8 - Thompkins

9 - Wheaton (same owner as 1.08)

10 - Patterson

11 - Lattimore

12 - Dobson

13 - Still (same owner as 1.12)

14 - Allen

15 - skipped (brain fart by worse owner ever) (he actually took Edelman)

16 - Woods

17 - Kelce (my pick, was super high on him and feared he would go at 18, 20 and 24 as the guy had 3 picks and is a Chiefs fan, I know I reached)

18 - Stacy

19 - Hunter

20 - Patton

21 - Eifert

22 - Davis

23 - Terrance Williams

24 - Randle
Is this a TE-required league? Nice to get maybe the best skill prospect in the draft at the #21 spot. Wow.

Surprised Hunter fell so far. Not sure he's going to pan out, but I rate him well above a guy like Stills or Stacy.

 
Just so you know, for late drafters here is how the draft shook up for us last night.

After moves, I Finished with 2, 7, 11, 14, 17

1 - Gio

2 - Lacy

3 - Austin

4 - Ball

5 - Hopkins

6 - Bell

7 - Michael

8 - Thompkins

9 - Wheaton (same owner as 1.08)

10 - Patterson

11 - Lattimore

12 - Dobson

13 - Still (same owner as 1.12)

14 - Allen

15 - skipped (brain fart by worse owner ever) (he actually took Edelman)

16 - Woods

17 - Kelce (my pick, was super high on him and feared he would go at 18, 20 and 24 as the guy had 3 picks and is a Chiefs fan, I know I reached)

18 - Stacy

19 - Hunter

20 - Patton

21 - Eifert

22 - Davis

23 - Terrance Williams

24 - Randle
Is this a TE-required league? Nice to get maybe the best skill prospect in the draft at the #21 spot. Wow.

Surprised Hunter fell so far. Not sure he's going to pan out, but I rate him well above a guy like Stills or Stacy.
In our rosters, we need a TE and we'll add a flex (WR/TE) next year, so I know it's silly that Eifert went so low. Knowing the rosters, he should have been picked at 12, 13, 15, 18, 20.

We could also debate on my pick at 17. I feeled Kelce could become a beast (top 5 TE year-in year-out) but his floor is lower. I went for the fence on him.

I had Eifert right after Kelce on my draft board and I valued Kelce high enough to hesitate when I picked Keenan Allen at 14.

But.. the worse is that he went to the League Juggernault.

 
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Not sure how this would translate to my rookie rankings. But, we held our rookie draft in May. I made the following selections (and subsequent trades)

1.14 ----- Eifert - Still on team. Value is still correct

2.01 ----- Z Stacy - Traded for M Wheaton. Stacy never pulled ahead, would move him to late 3rd on my board. Would take Wheaton or Woods (next pick) here, if I drafted today.

2.07 ----- Woods - Still on team. Value is still correct

2.11 ---- Bailey - Traded as part of a multi player deal. Much like Stacy, I didn't see enough out of him to jump other players on Rams roster. Would move him to late 2nd, early 3rd.

2.14 --- Minter - Still on team IDP

3.07 ---- D Robinson - Still on team. Draft position is a little high, would feel better with him in the 4th round.

3.10 ----- J Boyce - Traded as part of a multi player deal to get Mike Wallace. I had hopes for Boyce, but having a questionable WR in a weird situation in NE, I shipped him out. Value is still OK here, if you want to wait a couple years.

4.13 ---- D Rogers - Looks like a swing and a miss at the point. Based on players that went after Rogers, I don't see anyone else with boom or bust potential like his. Could have taken someone else and picked him up on Waivers?

 
Just so you know, for late drafters here is how the draft shook up for us last night.

After moves, I Finished with 2, 7, 11, 14, 17

1 - Gio

2 - Lacy

3 - Austin

4 - Ball

5 - Hopkins

6 - Bell

7 - Michael

8 - Thompkins

9 - Wheaton (same owner as 1.08)

10 - Patterson

11 - Lattimore

12 - Dobson

13 - Still (same owner as 1.12)

14 - Allen

15 - skipped (brain fart by worse owner ever) (he actually took Edelman)

16 - Woods

17 - Kelce (my pick, was super high on him and feared he would go at 18, 20 and 24 as the guy had 3 picks and is a Chiefs fan, I know I reached)

18 - Stacy

19 - Hunter

20 - Patton

21 - Eifert

22 - Davis

23 - Terrance Williams

24 - Randle
Is this a TE-required league? Nice to get maybe the best skill prospect in the draft at the #21 spot. Wow.

Surprised Hunter fell so far. Not sure he's going to pan out, but I rate him well above a guy like Stills or Stacy.
In our rosters, we need a TE and we'll add a flex (WR/TE) next year, so I know it's silly that Eifert went so low. Knowing the rosters, he should have been picked at 12, 13, 15, 18, 20.

We could also debate on my pick at 17. I feeled Kelce could become a beast (top 5 TE year-in year-out) but his floor is lower. I went for the fence on him.

I had Eifert right after Kelce on my draft board and I valued Kelce high enough to hesitate when I picked Keenan Allen at 14.

But.. the worse is that he went to the League Juggernault.
I think a lot of people will look back and wonder why they didn't pick him. One thing my rookie drafts keep teaching me over the years is not to get too cute. When you're left to choose between a 1st rounder at QB or TE and a 4th-5th rounder at RB/WR, it's probably wise to swallow your pride and just take the guy that the pro scouts loved.

The only skill prospects in the whole draft picked higher than Eifert were Austin and Manuel. You'd expect him to be taken after guys like Patterson, Hopkins, and Bernard in most FF drafts due to positional value, but at some point the increased odds of hitting overcome the relatively low upside. 3-4 years from now we will probably look back on this class and see that only a handful of these players still hold any real value. I think Eifert has a good chance to be one of those guys.

 
I play in leagues with different setups... From leagues that award KR/PR yardage (Austin 1.1), to 2QB leagues, (Manuel top 4), to standard leagues... But since the majority are playing in standard/ppr leagues...

1.01-Eddie Lacy, he's been my RB1 all along, he's not going to split time as much as people think. The fact he's played in the shotgun with Aaron Rodgers is telling enough. His pass pro is already there. He's going to get 250+ touches with ease. He's rarely seeing stacked boxes, he'll be in the redzone frequently.

1.02-Tavon Austin. I'm not going to panic over a lack of targets. He looked electric this weekend returning the ball, and will see a ton of targets from the slot.

1.03- Gio Bernard. Good offense in need of someone to pick up the slack.

1.04- Cordarrelle Patterson--I don't expect Christian Ponder to be throwing the ball this team next year. Best talent left on the board.

1.05- DeAndre Hopkins-- The only thing that worries me is Matt Schaub and his ability to spare it up consistently.

1.06- Christine Michael-- I think we'll see a 70/30 split this year Lynch's way. 50/50 next year. If healthy and his head is on straight... Yikes.

1.07- EJ Manuel-- He has a rocket arm, ability to move, and a HC/OC that can build him up into a monster.

1.08- Kenbrell Thompkins-- He's seemingly passed up all the other rookies on his roster. Brady is throwing to him. Yes please.

1.09- Markus Wheaton-- Mike Wallace skillset filling Mike Wallace's spot.

1.10- Montee Ball-- I was never too high on Ball, if he can figure out his pass pro, he's a starter. If not, he's rarely seeing time.

1.11- Robert Woods-- Most forgot what he was early on in his USC career. I haven't, and think the Marrone offense will open up nicely in year two.

1.12- Travis Kelce-- I like his game more than Eifert. Reid's offense is going to produce more targets for him. Top 10 TE in 2014.
Maybe it's that I don't like/play PPR, but the only thing more surprising to me than these rankings is that people seem to heavily agree with them.

My thoughts on this are that buying these mid-tier WRs and TEs high in rookie drafts is a losing proposition. These guys almost certainly take major hits to their value within the next year or two even if they play great.

Just look at last year's group. Even a guy like Kendall Wright that had a fantastic rookie season has pretty middling value right now. In fact, you could probably move a late 1st round pick to get him right now, so why not skip the year of growing pains and declining value and just jump right into that? With these kind of guys you're almost certainly looking at a year or two wait, why pick up this year's sexy name with that full waiting period left instead of last year's now much less sexy (but much more proven) guy at a discount that has nothing to do with his play?

The worse part is that that's the short-term upside, and the short-term downside (and really the more likely scenario) is significantly worse. What can you fetch for Stephen Hill or Mohamed Sanu or Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen or Brian Quick right now? It's not like most of those guys even had bad rookie years, they just didn't have great rookie years.

With a guy like Le'Veon Bell you might end up with a bust who comes in and looks bad or struggles with injury and holds onto mediocre value for a for years with a few brief weeks of increased value after a big game or two in between. With guys like Robert Woods, Markus Wheaton, Travis Kelce, etc there's a fair chance that you'll never really even hear about them again as they disappear into obscurity.

These guys are like new cars. They lose 25% of their value the day you drive them off the lot. Even if they have a good rookie season they'll be lucky to hold 75% of their value next year. If they have the rookie season we all expect by moving into things slowly they'll barely hold any value next year, and if they have a bad rookie season they'll be completely worthless.

Maybe I'm wrong and you couldn't move the 1.09 for Kendall Wright right now, but it just seems like the sexiness of these mid-tier WRs/TEs wears off as soon as they're no longer a part of a rookie draft.

 
Just look at last year's group. Even a guy like Kendall Wright that had a fantastic rookie season has pretty middling value right now. In fact, you could probably move a late 1st round pick to get him right now, so why not skip the year of growing pains and declining value and just jump right into that? With these kind of guys you're almost certainly looking at a year or two wait, why pick up this year's sexy name with that full waiting period left instead of last year's now much less sexy (but much more proven) guy at a discount that has nothing to do with his play?
The worse part is that that's the short-term upside, and the short-term downside (and really the more likely scenario) is significantly worse. What can you fetch for Stephen Hill or Mohamed Sanu or Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen or Brian Quick right now? It's not like most of those guys even had bad rookie years, they just didn't have great rookie years.
I don't think it's as easy to trade for 2nd year WRs as you're suggesting. Most Floyd/Jeffery/Randle/Wright owners chose those guys for a reason and aren't going to sell at a major discount. Yes there are players like Fleener and Quick who have seen their stock implode, but there are others like Givens and Hilton who have experienced the reverse. So if you like a player and you think he's going to be successful, you can't just assume that you can leave him out there on somebody else's roster for a year and buy him cheap later. That might be possible in some cases, but many times it won't. A guy like Josh Gordon or TY Hilton might never be cheaper for the next 6-7 years than he was as a rookie.

There are only a few elite prospects in any given draft class. Most of those guys will be snapped up early. Once they're gone, you still have to pick someone. If you aren't going to take 2nd-3rd round receivers and tight ends, who are you going to take?

 
Just look at last year's group. Even a guy like Kendall Wright that had a fantastic rookie season has pretty middling value right now. In fact, you could probably move a late 1st round pick to get him right now, so why not skip the year of growing pains and declining value and just jump right into that? With these kind of guys you're almost certainly looking at a year or two wait, why pick up this year's sexy name with that full waiting period left instead of last year's now much less sexy (but much more proven) guy at a discount that has nothing to do with his play?

The worse part is that that's the short-term upside, and the short-term downside (and really the more likely scenario) is significantly worse. What can you fetch for Stephen Hill or Mohamed Sanu or Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen or Brian Quick right now? It's not like most of those guys even had bad rookie years, they just didn't have great rookie years.
I don't think it's as easy to trade for 2nd year WRs as you're suggesting. Most Floyd/Jeffery/Randle/Wright owners chose those guys for a reason and aren't going to sell at a major discount. Yes there are players like Fleener and Quick who have seen their stock implode, but there are others like Givens and Hilton who have experienced the reverse. So if you like a player and you think he's going to be successful, you can't just assume that you can leave him out there on somebody else's roster for a year and buy him cheap later. That might be possible in some cases, but many times it won't. A guy like Josh Gordon or TY Hilton might never be cheaper for the next 6-7 years than he was as a rookie.

There are only a few elite prospects in any given draft class. Most of those guys will be snapped up early. Once they're gone, you still have to pick someone. If you aren't going to take 2nd-3rd round receivers and tight ends, who are you going to take?
Trying to think back to last year, but Givens and Hilton weren't really in that late 1st round range, were they? They seem like a lot cheaper investment then a late 1st, which is a valuable commodity, being spent on something that will almost immediately depreciate.

Perhaps you're right and I am mistaken on the value of those second year guys. Maybe some folks that have seen Wright/Jeffrey/Hill type guys moved in their leagues could chime in on what they went for. Or even guys from two years ago like Denarius Moore, who has actually had a pretty good 1st two years but from what I can tell seems to have very little value right now.

There are only a few elite prospects in any given draft class. Most of those guys will be snapped up early. Once they're gone, you still have to pick someone. If you aren't going to take 2nd-3rd round receivers and tight ends, who are you going to take?
For starters, in the rankings I was referencing, guys like Montee Ball, Le'Veon Bell, Tyler Eifert, and even Lattimore.

 
Perhaps you're right and I am mistaken on the value of those second year guys. Maybe some folks that have seen Wright/Jeffrey/Hill type guys moved in their leagues could chime in on what they went for. Or even guys from two years ago like Denarius Moore, who has actually had a pretty good 1st two years but from what I can tell seems to have very little value right now.
I think part of the reason why people are lukewarm about Denarius Moore is that he wasn't a high draft pick in the first place. He didn't have the fanfare or hype coming into the league that a guy like Alshon Jeffery or Rueben Randle had. Since he was never touted as a great prospect, people were inclined to view him with skepticism. It's kind of a moot point because even though he might not be worth a lot, he's still worth far more than what he cost in 2011 rookie drafts.

Overall, I'd say things are pretty straightforward. Rookie WRs who show significant promise in their rookie year will go up in value (Hilton, Givens, Gordon). Rookie WRs who have inconclusive/mediocre debut seasons will hover around the same price tag (Floyd, Jeffery, Randle). Rookie WRs who have downright bad rookie seasons will drop in value (Jenkins, Quick).

You might be able to trade a Hopkins/Patterson for a Floyd and save yourself a year of developing a player. There are times when that might be possible, but there are other times when an owner will stand firm on a player, even if the player is floundering. Many owners will only sell if they feel like they're getting a positive return on their investment. There's also the bigger issue that I alluded to in my last post: prospects tend to end up on the roster of the owner who values them most highly. So while a generic set of dynasty rankings might view Michael Floyd as a modest asset, whoever actually owns Michael Floyd in your league probably either spent a very high rookie pick on him or specifically targeted him in a trade. The Floyd owner probably rates him well above consensus market value, meaning you'll almost certainly have to pay above that level to land Floyd.

Hence why I don't think you can expect to get a guy like Jeffery or Randle for a discount. Nevermind the fact that their rookie years were inconclusive. They will cost the same or more than what they cost a year ago because...1.) Whoever owns them is probably high on them...and...2.) People are reluctant to sell unless they're turning a profit.

For starters, in the rankings I was referencing, guys like Montee Ball, Le'Veon Bell, Tyler Eifert, and even Lattimore.
All of those guys were first round picks in my drafts. A few things have changed since then, but I'd guess that their ADP would remain pretty similar.

Lots and lots of owners put a huge premium on immediate value, which ensures that any rookie RB with a pulse will never slip very far in a rookie draft. More often than not, I still think you would see Ball, Bell, and Lacy go ahead of WR/TE who were drafted in the same range by the NFL (Hunter, Woods, Dobson).

 
FreeBaGel - There is some truth to your new car losing value immediately after the pick is made analogy. The owner is still going to need to commit to that rookie player, likely for some time, without being certain that this player will ever reach the value you are expecting/hoping for at the time that you draft them.

This is even more true for the TE and WR positions that generally take longer before they achieve their potential than a RB or even a QB will. It will be easier to evaluate the value of a RB or QB once they play than it will a WR/TE generally.

With the recent changes to rookie contract structure, and a more pass oriented league in general, I think some RB are starting to take longer to make an instant impact than they used to. So this is evening out somewhat I think now. But generally you should be able to evaluate the RB and QB sooner than the WR/TE.

I think if you can trade rookie picks for more proven players, or like you suggest, players who have not yet broken out but are still very young in their development, although obviously further along than the rookies will be, that makes a lot of sense to do so. I think for the most part you will be needing to target players who have not shown anything however for this to actually be value. And when doing that you are still taking on similar risk with the unknown.

Players like Floyd, Hilton. Given's they have not necessarily broken out yet.. but most people paying attention to them are anticipating them doing so this season. They are not going to be sold cheaply at this time because of this anticipation, and also as EBF points out, they are likely rostered by the owners who value them more than the average value in rankings.

The flip side of this of course is that if the rookie player does shine enough in their early career, take AJ Green for example. Good luck to you trying to buy a player like this for reasonable value now. You likely will not be able to buy him at all. The cheapest point of entry on a player like this is during the rookie draft. That is the category that Austin, Patterson and Hopkins are in right now.

After this season perhaps their value will drop some if they do not have instant success. Then you will be looking at a scenario similar to Floyd, Hilton, Given's on these players. Which is somewhat like them maintaining rookie pick value. But as you point out, they will then be a year further in their development, so more anticipation of break out for these players at that time than people who drafted them as rookies should have expected. So in this sense players like this should see their values rise going into their 2nd and 3rd seasons as long as they do not really badly fail.

The reason I have these WR ranked so high on my list is because of the long term value I see being possible for them, even if they do not show much as rookies. Because those are players who can make up the core of your roster if they do pan out. The RB are more likely to be flash in the pan. Have a good season, maybe 2 or 3 but then get injured or for some other reason fade. That is just the nature of the RB position. A star WR on the other hand will likely hold their value long term. So that goes into how I rank them as high as I do. This idea would apply to QB and TE as well. With a bit longer time expected before they realize that type of return. Many players at these 2 positions will not reach their full potential until their 3rd season. QBs tend to improve more gradually and TE usually take a couple seasons of conditioning before they really break out.

I have different expectations for the time frame it will take for each player to reach their potential, and that goes into how I rank them.

It is a difficult balancing act. I do push up players who I see in better position for instant impact, not so much because I am expecting to be able to start them right away, but because I see them in situations where I can evaluate their real value sooner than other players whose situations may cause me to have to wait a couple years to be able to do so. The players who I expect to take longer for that development/evaluation to happen (this usually involves players who are more raw or behind established starters) I will rank a bit lower because of that.

Justin Hunter is a good example of a player who I think has amazing potential and talent. However due to him being in a situation with many quality WR ahead of him, a poor QB who may not be able to unlock that potential even once Hunter moves to the top of the depth chart, a possible coaching change looming, and Hunter himself needing to develop his craft. All of these things add up to me ranking Hunter much lower than I think his talent deserves. I just don't have the patience to wait out all of these unknowns for 3 years, even though I think his talent is very close to the WR I ranked near the top of my list.

eta- I hope that answers your question about my admittedly low ranking of Hunter ConstruxBoy. It is not that I do not like him. I just do not like the situation he is in. If Britt fails this season then he will be moving up. I have not delved into the contract situations and things of that nature in regards to him that much however. So if anyone wanted to discuss that, I would be interested and willing to move him accordingly.

 
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FreeBaGel - There is some truth to your new car losing value immediately after the pick is made analogy. The owner is still going to need to commit to that rookie player, likely for some time, without being certain that this player will ever reach the value you are expecting/hoping for at the time that you draft them.

This is even more true for the TE and WR positions that generally take longer before they achieve their potential than a RB or even a QB will. It will be easier to evaluate the value of a RB or QB once they play than it will a WR/TE generally.

With the recent changes to rookie contract structure, and a more pass oriented league in general, I think some RB are starting to take longer to make an instant impact than they used to. So this is evening out somewhat I think now. But generally you should be able to evaluate the RB and QB sooner than the WR/TE.

I think if you can trade rookie picks for more proven players, or like you suggest, players who have not yet broken out but are still very young in their development, although obviously further along than the rookies will be, that makes a lot of sense to do so. I think for the most part you will be needing to target players who have not shown anything however for this to actually be value. And when doing that you are still taking on similar risk with the unknown.

Players like Floyd, Hilton. Given's they have not necessarily broken out yet.. but most people paying attention to them are anticipating them doing so this season. They are not going to be sold cheaply at this time because of this anticipation, and also as EBF points out, they are likely rostered by the owners who value them more than the average value in rankings.

The flip side of this of course is that if the rookie player does shine enough in their early career, take AJ Green for example. Good luck to you trying to buy a player like this for reasonable value now. You likely will not be able to buy him at all. The cheapest point of entry on a player like this is during the rookie draft. That is the category that Austin, Patterson and Hopkins are in right now.

After this season perhaps their value will drop some if they do not have instant success. Then you will be looking at a scenario similar to Floyd, Hilton, Given's on these players. Which is somewhat like them maintaining rookie pick value. But as you point out, they will then be a year further in their development, so more anticipation of break out for these players at that time than people who drafted them as rookies should have expected. So in this sense players like this should see their values rise going into their 2nd and 3rd seasons as long as they do not really badly fail.

The reason I have these WR ranked so high on my list is because of the long term value I see being possible for them, even if they do not show much as rookies. Because those are players who can make up the core of your roster if they do pan out. The RB are more likely to be flash in the pan. Have a good season, maybe 2 or 3 but then get injured or for some other reason fade. That is just the nature of the RB position. A star WR on the other hand will likely hold their value long term. So that goes into how I rank them as high as I do. This idea would apply to QB and TE as well. With a bit longer time expected before they realize that type of return. Many players at these 2 positions will not reach their full potential until their 3rd season. QBs tend to improve more gradually and TE usually take a couple seasons of conditioning before they really break out.

I have different expectations for the time frame it will take for each player to reach their potential, and that goes into how I rank them.

It is a difficult balancing act. I do push up players who I see in better position for instant impact, not so much because I am expecting to be able to start them right away, but because I see them in situations where I can evaluate their real value sooner than other players whose situations may cause me to have to wait a couple years to be able to do so. The players who I expect to take longer for that development/evaluation to happen (this usually involves players who are more raw or behind established starters) I will rank a bit lower because of that.

Justin Hunter is a good example of a player who I think has amazing potential and talent. However due to him being in a situation with many quality WR ahead of him, a poor QB who may not be able to unlock that potential even once Hunter moves to the top of the depth chart, a possible coaching change looming, and Hunter himself needing to develop his craft. All of these things add up to me ranking Hunter much lower than I think his talent deserves. I just don't have the patience to wait out all of these unknowns for 3 years, even though I think his talent is very close to the WR I ranked near the top of my list.

eta- I hope that answers your question about my admittedly low ranking of Hunter ConstruxBoy. It is not that I do not like him. I just do not like the situation he is in. If Britt fails this season then he will be moving up. I have not delved into the contract situations and things of that nature in regards to him that much however. So if anyone wanted to discuss that, I would be interested and willing to move him accordingly.
Good posting here. Although I subscribe to the theory that cream rises as it pertains to Hunter. If he's got the potential that Bernard Pollard says he does, guys like Wright and Britt won't have the juice to hold him down. I like Hunter even more long term because I could see a whole new regime there next season that attempts to focus on what is already there instead of trying to pound a square peg into a round hole like Munchak has.

 
Gio Bernard
Cordelle Patterson
DeAndre Hopkins
Christine Michael
Eddie Lacy
Tavon Austin
Tyler Eifert
Travis Kelce
Zac Stacy
Monte Ball
LeVeon Bell
Keenan Allen
Stedman Bailey
Kenbrell Thompkins
Quinton Patton
EJ Manuel
Marcus Wheaton
Robert Woods
Aaron Dobson
Terrance Williams
Kenny Stills
Vance McDonald
Marcus Lattimore
Zach Ertz
Knile Davis
Ciere Wood
Joseph Randle
Dernard Robinson
Marquise Goodwin
Justin Hunter
Geno Smith
Matt Pryor

The remaining players I consider more on watch status than players I would roster right now (depends on roster size of course).

Mike Glennon
Jordan Reed
Josh Boyce
Tavarres King cut today by Broncos. Move to the bottom of the list if picked up later.
Charles Johnson cut today by Packers. Move to the bottom of the list if picked up later.
Stepfan Taylor
Andre Ellington
Gavin Escobar
Zach Sudfeld
Bennie Cunningham
CJ Anderson
Michael Cox
Khiry Robinson
Kenjon Barner
Marlon Brown
Levine Toilolono
Marquess Wilson
Johnathan Franklin
Justin Brown
Aaron Mellette
David Ausberry

I am tempted to move some of these players from watch list up because they are closer to playing time than others ahead of them. But maintaining a long term view, I didn't. Many of these players will ultimately not be worth a spot at all.

I added Geno Smith and Matt Pryor because I guess these QB are starting for their teams week 1? I really do not like either player or any of the rookie QB from this class. But begrudgingly I list them.

I did actually think Manuel looked pretty good. Only rookie QB that looked decent to me at all. Well I take that back Glennon did fairly well and I sort of almost liked what I read about him as a prospect. The Bucs are not completely decided on Freeman either.
So updating this list now that we are past the quarter mark of 2013 season.

Gio Bernard
Cordelle Patterson
DeAndre Hopkins
Christine Michael
Eddie Lacy
Tavon Austin
Tyler Eifert
Keenan Allen
Terrance Williams
Justin Hunter
EJ Manuel
Zac Stacy
LeVeon Bell
Monte Ball
Geno Smith
Robert Woods
Mike Glennon
Kenny Stills
Stedman Bailey
Vance McDonald
Marcus Lattimore
Kenbrell Thompkins
Quinton Patton
Zach Ertz
Aaron Dobson
Marcus Wheaton
Andre Ellington
Travis Kelce
Knile Davis
Jordan Reed
Marquise Goodwin
Ciere Wood
Joseph Randle
Dernard Robinson
 
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As for the rankings, I'd take Jordan Reed over everyone up to EJ Manuel. And I'd have Bell ahead too. Stacy would be much further down.

 

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