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Rerank the top 5 RBs going forward(ppr and non ppr) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Interseptopus
Footballguy
A little early for this don't you think? It's only been 2 weeks. One of the top 5 RBs IMO hasn't even played a game yet.
Noah Davis
Footballguy
- Bell/Williams
- CJ Anderson
- Forte
- David Johnson
- Murray
TripItUp
Footballguy
well, this is a discussion board...just trying to kill a slow Tuesday.
Every party has a pooper...
TripItUp
Footballguy
You would rather have Ware over Zeke?
Not criticizing, just want to understand the logic.
Before I go any further, just making clear I'm talking 2016 and not dynasty. Correct me if I misunderstood that part.
Very close between ware and Elliott for me. Even Melvin Gordon is in the mix. Elliott's fumbling could present an issue and I think his season will be inconsistent until romo back or Dak gets more respect from defenses.
I think ware just had what could end up his worst game of the year and still had decent points. I think he still gets used a good bit when Charles returns. My endorsement of ware is more about weak competition rather than him being a top 5 type RB.
10 carries 2 catches. Seems like the least they would use him in a game. But please elaborate if you have any concrete reason for laughing.Oh good God.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I understand I just feel like if you look at a very small sample size of 2 weeks you really don't have much to base your opinion on.
Good example is most people have Bell on their list. He hasn't played a game. I would happen to agree with them however our assumption is he takes over as the Bell-cow (pun intended). He very well may have a time share with Williams that renders both of them so streaky you're stuck with a roster decision every week. He certainly has the talent to be top 5, but hasn't played a game yet.
Flip side, Gurley has had a terrible start to the year but FBG had him as the #1 RB to start the year. He could very well turn it around.
Ware is on this list. When Charles comes back Ware may not even be startable. Who knows
Maybe looking at things like this quarterly is a better way to kill a slow Tuesday. Mine's slow too, hence why I'm on the board, but these lists are literally no better than taking the top 10 RBs so far after 2 weeks and throwing 5 darts at them to see who you land on.
Noah Davis
Footballguy
Any split with Jamal Charles will ensure he is not a top 5 RB. It's hard to make the top 5 and be a RBBC
I see your point, but I disagree. Woodhead finished top 5 in ppr last year splitting. Deangelo and David Johnson finished top 5 ppr playing only half a season. It's very possible a rb in a timeshare makes top 5 these days. Especially in ppr.
I'll temper my expectations the first game I see Charles monopolize the touches.
Now you're talking touches, but I'd still disagree that 12 will be his low game if/when Charles returns. But his worst game on the season will not be 105 combined yards, if you're talking production. If that was his worst game as you state, then he's the unquestioned #1 RB in fantasy football moving forward and probably ends up with a season rivaling any RB in the history of ffball.
He's had 18 and 12 touches without Jamal Charles in the picture. If/when Charles comes back, I'd say 15 touches per game is on the high end of what he'll receive and no, he won't be putting up 100 yards or anywhere near that in each and every game.
But those are some of the best pass catching backs in the league. I think there's a chance that Ware's first two games this year end up being his high yardage for receiving for the year (129 and 49 yards receiving, respectively). He's not Woodhead, David Johnson, or Deangelo as far as receiving skills go.
Thanks for expanding. I can't say you are wrong, but I disagree.
Now there were no parameters set so it skews things a bit. I am talking ppr because unfortunately it's all I play. I won't guarantee he gets 100 yards a game, but I can see him putting up at least 12ppg from here out even if splitting with Charles. Between catches/yards/tds it's very possible. Now if Charles comes back strong and leaving Ware a smaller role, then I will adjust my forecast. But today this is where I am.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
I fully expected there to be a thread just like this when i came on today.
By all appearances, the top 5 will deconstruct weekly just like last year. I'm in a league that drafts right after the super bowl and you cant touch your roster til after wk 1. In '15, because of Gurley being drafted by the Rams, the subsequent deevolution of Tre Mason and general innattentiveness, our team had RJennings as RB1 and no RB2 getting significant reps @ the beginning of the season. We spent our entire FA budget on Deangelo, DJohnson and Dion Lewis after wk 1, got JWhite before Dion 'sploded and won the championship on the strength of our running game. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if the end of '16 is dominated by DWashes, Drakes and Dixons.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Deangelo was 6th in my league last year, but I won't be too picky...
Woodhead had 80 receptions and vultured goal line carries. To say he split time is kind of a stretch. Technically yes he split time with Gordon but Gordon was so ineffective Woodhead was really all they had. Plus, any RB gets 80 receptions and goal line carries and he's top 5. Ware is definitely not that kind of back. If anything Charles is...
Same with Deangelo and David Johnson...
David Johnson had fewer rushing yards than any of the other top 15 RBs except for Woodhead. The first back to beat him who is below him in rushing stats was Charles Sims.
It stands to reason that had Johnson and Deangelo played a full year at their positions they would have had over 80 receptions
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A: there's always a chance you are correct. I believe otherwise though. Which is why this is a good thread, for debates such as this.
B: If MOP sees that last line, you are in for an earful.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Assuming similar levels of competence it's hard to win a trade when everyone is operating from the same set of consensus rankings. Times like right now, when the rankings are so in flux, are when trades between two similarly competent owners end up one sided in one direction or the other. It's the perfect time to try and gauge where player's values are.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Jamaal Charles has registered below 40 receptions on the year only 4 times in his NFL career:
1 was his rookie season
2 years were cut short due to injury (He was on pace for 40 and 67 receptions those years he did get hurt)
1 year he had 35 receptions
Charles has averaged 2.83 receptions per game for his career
Ware has averaged 1.15 receptions per game in his short career thus far. Including last year when Charles was hurt.
I would say Charles is the man when it comes to the receiving game in KC
Maybe the SD wasn't a fluke and maybe they will want their budding star to be in those games where they are behind and trying to play catch up instead of their highly paid potential future HOFer... Ware's value lies directly on how he will be used when Charles comes back. Since we really don't know that it's not real constructive to argue on whether or not he will be top 5,which is why threads like these aren't entirely helpful. You get Ware owners gushing over him thinking KC is going to just let Charles ride the bench when the game is on the line and you've got others who don't believe that at all. Check back with me after week 6 and we will talk about who the top 5 RBs are going forward. I'd be willing to bet that Ware is not in that discussion.
1 was his rookie season
2 years were cut short due to injury (He was on pace for 40 and 67 receptions those years he did get hurt)
1 year he had 35 receptions
Charles has averaged 2.83 receptions per game for his career
Ware has averaged 1.15 receptions per game in his short career thus far. Including last year when Charles was hurt.
I would say Charles is the man when it comes to the receiving game in KC
Maybe the SD wasn't a fluke and maybe they will want their budding star to be in those games where they are behind and trying to play catch up instead of their highly paid potential future HOFer... Ware's value lies directly on how he will be used when Charles comes back. Since we really don't know that it's not real constructive to argue on whether or not he will be top 5,which is why threads like these aren't entirely helpful. You get Ware owners gushing over him thinking KC is going to just let Charles ride the bench when the game is on the line and you've got others who don't believe that at all. Check back with me after week 6 and we will talk about who the top 5 RBs are going forward. I'd be willing to bet that Ware is not in that discussion.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
then Matt Ryan will be the top QB of the year. Trade Russell Wilson for a kicker while you can. We should all drop Devonta Freeman. And Larry Fitzgerald is returning to top 10 status...
I remember last year Chris Ivory was on fire the first 4 games of the year. He looked like a top 5 back. I even tried trading for him. How'd he finish?
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ShamrockPride
Footballguy
See this is hard cause you know guys like Bell hasn't even hit the field yet and guys like Lamar haven't broken out yet even though you know it's coming.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
As it is...
1. DeAngelo/Bell
2. David Johnson
3. Matt Forte
4. Flash Gordon
5. CJ Anderson
1. DeAngelo/Bell
2. David Johnson
3. Matt Forte
4. Flash Gordon
5. CJ Anderson
ajgargano
Footballguy
I would not put Ware as high as the top 5 right now, as there are certainly some questions surrounding the situation. That said, he's on the border of my top 10 and I can easily see him being a top 5 back ROS.
I love Jamaal Charles but I think there's quite a bit of writing on the wall. Despite the Schefter report, it doesn't sound like he's all that close to returning. And even if he does, it certainly doesn't sound like he's going to be 100% himself right out of the gate. Let's pretend he is though. What incentive do the Chiefs have to just run him into the ground if they don't have to? Ware has proven to be a very talented back. At the very least, you'd imagine he gets 10-12 touches per game plus some goal line looks, which makes him a startable RB2 IMO...and that's if Charles is Charles.
The much more likely scenario is that Charles is eased in much more slowly, and there's a significant risk that he gets hurt again or has simply lost a step as a 30-year-old coming off two ACL surgeries. In which case, Ware is a league-winner.
Maybe Charles comes back and dominates like his old self. It is not impossible. But I'm one to err against the uber-optimistic projection when it comes to injury-recovery.
I love Jamaal Charles but I think there's quite a bit of writing on the wall. Despite the Schefter report, it doesn't sound like he's all that close to returning. And even if he does, it certainly doesn't sound like he's going to be 100% himself right out of the gate. Let's pretend he is though. What incentive do the Chiefs have to just run him into the ground if they don't have to? Ware has proven to be a very talented back. At the very least, you'd imagine he gets 10-12 touches per game plus some goal line looks, which makes him a startable RB2 IMO...and that's if Charles is Charles.
The much more likely scenario is that Charles is eased in much more slowly, and there's a significant risk that he gets hurt again or has simply lost a step as a 30-year-old coming off two ACL surgeries. In which case, Ware is a league-winner.
Maybe Charles comes back and dominates like his old self. It is not impossible. But I'm one to err against the uber-optimistic projection when it comes to injury-recovery.
I appreciate those stats, but they don't tell the whole story. You nailed it with the bolded part. But I think that's why this discussion is at least helpful for when it becomes clear. The point of this discussion is for us to basically forecast the future as best as we can. There is no right or wrong answer until week 17 is over.
My opinion is based on data that I have as of today. Charles past receiving stats aren't worth much because none of it happened after his 2nd ACL tear or after ware broke out. He could very well come back as the lead dog and push Ware back into a much smaller role. I just can't envision ware being reduced to a nominal role after watching him play the last couple of games. And I own both him and Charles so there is no bias either way. They can both be productive in that system.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
1. Bell
2. D. Johnson
3. Gurley
4. Miller
5. Ware/Charles
2. D. Johnson
3. Gurley
4. Miller
5. Ware/Charles
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This makes zero sense. No one is saying just pick the guys with the most points. Were that the case there wouldn't be a need for this thread. We could all just look at the scoring sheets.
Yeah Chris Ivory had a surprise hot start last year but so did DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Eifert. Trying to pick out the real changes from the fake ones is exactly the reason for a thread like this to exist. FF rankings change WILDLY from one year to the next. 6 of this year's top 10 RBs in FF rankings and 7 of this year's top 10 WRs in FF rankings were not ranked in the top 10 in 2015's rankings. These changes happen fast and many of them are apparent pretty early on in the season. Trying to pick those out and stay ahead of the curve is a MAJOR part of being successful in fantasy football and certainly warrants a thread for discussion at the very least.
There's wasn't much point to changing your value of DeAndre Hopkins from a solid WR2 to a standout WR1 in week 8 last year when everyone else had adjusted the value the same. Picking that out correctly in the first few weeks of the season when there was still doubt from his owners that he would settle back into WR2 territory and acquiring him at a reduced rate makes a big difference.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I understand but I think I just disagree that much has changed since prior to week 1. Again, I'd love to revisit this in another 2 weeks because you will have a quarter of the season played
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well in a perfect world I'd love to revisit it after week 16 and then go back in time and re-do my draft with that knowledge
.The longer you wait to adjust the more the consensus will have adjusted alongside that and the less value there is to be gained from doing so. There's more risk doing it earlier, but a lot more reward as well. I'd love to see CJA do it 4 weeks in a row rather than 2 before I make a move on him, but if he does it 4 weeks in a row it will already be too late to get him at any kind of even moderately reasonable price.
As to not much changing since week 1 I disagree. You can't tell me you're not looking at guys like CJ Anderson, Matt Forte, and Melvin Gordon much differently than you were prior to week 1.
Skoo
Footballguy
Think people would still be drafting Gurley and AP (if healthy) in the first round today?
How about Ingram or Lacy in the 2nd?
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Johnson
Miller
Anderson
Forte
McCoy
Bell at 4 once he returns.
Miller
Anderson
Forte
McCoy
Bell at 4 once he returns.
Short Corner
Footballguy
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
This is closest to what my list would be - not sold on Miller but don't know who else to put there (maybe Zeke, maybe Mathews). Sold on the first four.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Top 10..
Johnson - as long as ARI doesn't blow their opp out by multiple scores every game
Bell - most talented RB in the league
Anderson - looks like the same guy from the tail-end of last i.e, a beast (if I owned CJA I'd want to 100% lock down Booker however)
Forte - hilariously high volume
McCoy - doesn't visually seem to have lost a step and decent volume
Miller - hilariously high volume but he hasn't done #### with it so far
Zeke - if it weren't for his OL I don't know if I'd be loving him as much, no passing game role
Gurley - I hate to bet against talent but the situation looks piss poor atm
Murray - Henry is looming but Murray still sees work on all downs, contributing in the passing game and in the RZ
Ware - 304 yards from scrimmage on 30 touches
Honorable Mention:
Gordon - looks like a completely different back to me, I think he keeps rolling
Johnson - as long as ARI doesn't blow their opp out by multiple scores every game
Bell - most talented RB in the league
Anderson - looks like the same guy from the tail-end of last i.e, a beast (if I owned CJA I'd want to 100% lock down Booker however)
Forte - hilariously high volume
McCoy - doesn't visually seem to have lost a step and decent volume
Miller - hilariously high volume but he hasn't done #### with it so far
Zeke - if it weren't for his OL I don't know if I'd be loving him as much, no passing game role
Gurley - I hate to bet against talent but the situation looks piss poor atm
Murray - Henry is looming but Murray still sees work on all downs, contributing in the passing game and in the RZ
Ware - 304 yards from scrimmage on 30 touches
Honorable Mention:
Gordon - looks like a completely different back to me, I think he keeps rolling
Interseptopus
Footballguy
No, I really don't look at them differently. Gordon is very overrated. Again, you're speculating that Gordon will take over the Woodhead role. People were drooling over Gordon last year and he failed to impress. Honestly Gordon's value doedsn't change as much as Woodhead's replacement does.
CJ I'm not entirely surprised at nor did I predict it. He's always had talent. Would I trade for him? No. I don't think he's for real. Is he impressing and paying off? Sure.
Forte... he's gotten a LOT of work so far, but will he sustain it? I guess he has surprised me the most. again, I don't think I'd trade for him.
Okay, injuries aside, I don't think much as changed after the first week. I'd hope people would draft Gurley in the first round. If someone would trade me Gurley for Matt Forte or CJ Anderson I'd jump on that in a heart beat
Interseptopus
Footballguy
If we want to play this game, sure my top 5 would be in no particular order:
Bell
Miller
Johnson
Elliot
Gurley or CJ
I'm not sure that is much different than before week 1. Forte isn't going to finish as a top 5 back... Gordon? Really? smh...
Bell
Miller
Johnson
Elliot
Gurley or CJ
I'm not sure that is much different than before week 1. Forte isn't going to finish as a top 5 back... Gordon? Really? smh...
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my rankings
L Bell/D Will
David Johnson
Miller
CJA
Forte
will be or will remain elite RB1 (if healthy of course)
then a tier below:
gurley
zeke
mccoy
Gordon (even this im not convinced, i can see SD bringing a passing down back which would put gordon right back where he was before woodhead got injured)
then the rest is a crapshoot
L Bell/D Will
David Johnson
Miller
CJA
Forte
will be or will remain elite RB1 (if healthy of course)
then a tier below:
gurley
zeke
mccoy
Gordon (even this im not convinced, i can see SD bringing a passing down back which would put gordon right back where he was before woodhead got injured)
then the rest is a crapshoot
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Melvin Gordon was drafted after Michael Floyd and Golden Tate. CJ Anderson was drafted 2 rounds behind Eddie Lacy. Spencer Ware was drafted behind Justin Forsett, Rashad Jennings, and Duke Johnson. You're telling me if we drafted again today all those things should stay the same?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm telling you I don't put much stock into the first two games dictating what I do with my studs.
Melvin Gordon was on my do not target list. He would still be on that list. People are assuming he's going to have Woodhead's role. When he isn't that kind of back. I've watched him while at Wisconsin and he is kind of a one trick pony...
Lacy I think is still going to have a great year. It's only been 2 weeks and Sunday night they got into their throw throw throw punt mode. Top 5? No. But I didn't have him in my top 5 to start the season. He was lower top 10 which is exactly where I think he will finish. Ahead of CJ? Maybe. Maybe not. I think CJ is having a great year and should continue to do so. He is in my top 6. Before the year I had him as the best RB2.
Ware obviously moves up from being drafted so far back, but top 5 the rest of the way? No.
I said nothing really has changed at the top 5 RBs list from before week 1 to now, for me at least. and I think anyone saying Ware and Forte are going to finish top 5 don't really have anything to back up their claims. I could equally say Matt Ryan will be a top 5 QB... The Colts will go 0-16
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Isn't that pretty much the case every year? Ivory throws himself at mad guys with pads for 3or4 games with excellent result then byebye.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
In terms of players who were drafted at or near RB1 and have performed like RB1 with 12+ carries each game so far isn't this pretty much it?
