Return from Injury (1 Viewer)

[MCguidance]

For some, it is one of the more important questions going into the 2008 fantasy season: Will Ronnie Brown return to pre-injury form this season? I have heard many in other mock drafts and forums suggest that he will be a fantasy beast this season, despite the injury to his ACL last season. If I am reading it correctly, FBG's have projected Ronnie Brown to be RB15 at season's end, so for some, this is an important question (MFL has him at RB16 assuming PPR, 12 teams, redraft). Less than a year removed from a serious injury, will Brown return to peak form straight away? My first inclination is to say 'no.' However, over the past several weeks, I have read reports from Miami training camp that Brown looks primed to pick up where he left off. After reading around, I came across an interesting article suggesting skeptics may indeed be right. The following article is a quick read. However, I want to get the Shark Pool's opinion on this issue, seeing as this is really the most informative forum I know.

This may just be an interesting read and that's it. Or it could really confirm what most of us already know, rupture of an ACL is a serious injury that likely ends elite performance. However, off the top of my head I think about Edge and McGahee, Jamal Lewis to name a few, that have bounced back and performed at a high level. Will Ronnie Brown follow suit? Will it be this year? Will it be next? Or will he simply never return to early 2007 form?

I am hesitant to create a poll, as I don't really want it black and white, I would like to hear insight, information, gut calls, etc.

Lastly, if this is a Honda, please lock. Looking forward to some good discussion.

-MC

Contact: Patti Davis

Patti@aossm.org

847-292-4900

Vanderbilt University Medical Center

Performance of wide receivers, running backs post-ACL injury falls by one third

James L. Carey, MD

The good news for NFL players who sustain an injury to their anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) is that they'll likely play again in the NFL. The bad news is, they'll return with diminished performance on the field, concludes a study in the December issue of The American Journal of Sports Medicine.

"Although there have been over 2000 articles on the ACL in the past 20 years, only a few have focused on the pro player," writes author James L. Carey, MD (Dr. Carey is now affiliated with Vanderbilt Sports Medicine, Nashville, Tenn.) and colleagues from the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pa.

"Our study is the first to objectively measure an NFL player's performance before and after an ACL injury." Brian J. Sennett MD, co-author and Chief of Sports Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, believes "this article will have significant impact on setting appropriate expectations for the injured players, their agents, team owners, and fans. It is the first article to establish that injuries may have a significant negative impact on a player's performance if they are able to return to action."

The researchers collected data on ACL injuries sustained by NFL running backs (RBs) and wide receivers (WRs) during a five-year period (1998-2002). This data came from NFL game summaries, play-by-play documents, weekly injury reports, and player profiles. The injury group was compared to a control group consisting of all NFL RBs and WRs without an identified ACL injury who played during the 2000 season.

Carey, Sennett and colleagues devised a unique measurement of game performance output in the professional athlete. They assigned a "power rating" for every player in every season, defined as a weighted sum of total yards and touchdowns, likely the most important statistics of RB and WR performance. The power ratings for the 3 seasons prior to ACL injury were compared to the power ratings for the 3 seasons following ACL injury.

Data were analyzed for 31 players with 33 ACL injuries. Of the injured players, 21 percent (7 of 33 ACL injuries) never returned to play in another regular season NFL game. Of the 79 percent that did return, most players returned to action 9 to 12 months after an ACL injury.



For those players who returned to NFL action following an ACL injury, performance fell by one-third, the researchers found. Power rating per game played decreased from 9.9 pre-injury to 6.5 post-injury. This decline in player production was statistically significant when compared to the 146 players in the control group.

Knee pain, stiffness, loss of strength, deconditioning and reduced proprioception (the sense of knowing where your leg is) may be factors explaining the loss of production in players after an ACL injury, the authors theorize. Further, ACL reconstruction does not perfectly recreate the complex anatomy and composition of a person's ACL before injury.

Interestingly, prior to their injury the ACL-injured players performed better than did controls. "High-performance RBs and WRs are more likely to be injured because they compete in more plays per game, carry the ball longer on each play, and attract more defensive attention," the authors say. "The same qualities of RBs and WRs that contribute to high performance -- instantaneous decelerations as well as explosive pivoting and cutting maneuvers -- may increase the risk for ACL injury."

The researchers cite a recent survey of all 31 NFL team physicians who were asked to quantify "what percentage of players return to play in the NFL after ACL reconstruction." Ninety percent of team physicians responded "90 to 100 percent" of players (assuming not borderline talent) return to the NFL. The current study found the number of players who return to play after an ACL injury was actually less, at 79 percent.

"Most studies report good to excellent results in the majority of ACL reconstructions regardless of technique or patient age, but the professional football player presents unique demands on the reconstructed knee," Carey concludes. "Our findings may be useful for athletes, coaches, and team owners in anticipating the future contributions of a player who has injured an ACL."

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The American Journal of Sports Medicine is the monthly peer-reviewed scientific journal of the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine (AOSSM). AOSSM is a world leader in sports medicine education, research, communication, and fellowship. The Society works closely with many sports medicine specialists and clinicians to improve the identification, prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation of sports injuries. Please visit http://www.sportsmed.org/.

 

[joffer]

However, off the top of my head I think about Edge and McGahee, Jamal Lewis to name a few, that have bounced back and performed at a high level. Will Ronnie Brown follow suit?

the next year?Jamal did recover very well, although he tore his ACL in training camp the previous season, so he had a long time to recover

Edge's YPC dropped from 4.4 to 3.6 post-ACL

McGahee took two years before he was back.

 

[T Bell]

I've paid some attention to this as one of my teams has Brown, and another has Ricky.

The injury is only part of the story. IMHO that team is going to get its money's worth out of Ricky and pound him. Parcells (yes, I know he's not the coach, but this is definitely his show) has never been averse to spreading the rushing load around, so I'd frankly be shocked if Brown even got 50% of the carries. I'd expect RW ends up with more carries than anyone else, with Brown behind him (with maybe 175-200 carries) and Parmele and the others getting the rest.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I've said it time and again, Ricky will get his carries if he's healthy. And since I'm not in the business of predicting injury, I expect Ricky to be the highest ranked backup RB in the league.

I expect Ronnie to get 12-15 carries/game. Ricky 10-12 carries/game. I don't expect them to be used much different than Barber/Jones in Dallas.

 

[MCguidance]

However, off the top of my head I think about Edge and McGahee, Jamal Lewis to name a few, that have bounced back and performed at a high level. Will Ronnie Brown follow suit?

the next year?Jamal did recover very well, although he tore his ACL in training camp the previous season, so he had a long time to recover

Edge's YPC dropped from 4.4 to 3.6 post-ACL

McGahee took two years before he was back.

Ah, yeah, I meant they "bounced back" to an elite level by simply being a productive NFL running back. But yes, it seems that even Edge and Lewis were not the same. In fact, maybe McGahee was not the same after his injury, hard to know. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

to me this is all about chance/value....

I think Ricky is the man to have in MIA this year.....especially when talking value.....do you want to take an early "chance" on Brown and waste a high pick if he doesn't perform....and it is a chance...

or do you want to take a late "chance" on Ricky with possibility of it vastly out perfroming the draft spot it would require

I think I want to stay away from Brown ....he just had surgery in October and I know it looks like he is doing okay, but seriously we will be 6 weeks into the season before he is 1 year away from his surgery.....we don't know really how he will respond....nobody does...

if I pass on picking Brown early and he has a good year....I can live with that

if I pick Williams late and he has a bad year....I can live with that

if I use a high draft pick on Brown and the knee is not ready.....I can't live with that because it will kill my team...

 

[BigJim®]

I'd want to see specifics from the report before drawing conclusiong. Personally, I don't beleive a player's performance drops by 33% solely due to an injury. It could be the team went a different direction, changed his role, brought in a rookie. It also could be that he was simply past his prime.

 

[T Bell]

I'd want to see specifics from the report before drawing conclusiong. Personally, I don't beleive a player's performance drops by 33% solely due to an injury. It could be the team went a different direction, changed his role, brought in a rookie. It also could be that he was simply past his prime.

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many variables.

I think at a minimum you'd have to normalize for age, position played, whether they're a starter or a backup, and maybe years left on contract. It makes zero sense to compare a 32-year old WR4 who's a special teams maven to a 24-year old starting WR who's a former 1st rounder.