Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Robert Griffin III Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I've always found it difficult to try and give my opinion on rookies. It's tough to know or have any type of real expectation of what they could realistically produce. I don't have Cam Newton's Player Spotlight from last year handy, but I suspect noone was really close to what he wound up producing. And while I'm sure a few more people got Mark Ingram correct, without any context...this does seem like a throwing darts exercise.

However, I wanted to understand a little bit more about the Redskins under Shanahan. With early mocks having RGIII being the 12th/13th QB off the board...is this enthusiasm stoked by Cam's epic rookie year, or could RGIII really be an immediate impact player.

Under Shanahan, the Redskins have:

1) Passed 63% of the time with a declining Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman as their primary signal caller. Take into account that the Redskins best WR during this time has been an underwhelming Sanatana Moss and you wonder how bad the run game must have been.

2) Averaged 4160 Passing Yards/season but have also turned in a 40:43 TD-INT ratio.

...it seems odd that despite the subpar QB play the Redskins have had under Shanahan, they've relied on the pass as heavily as they have. Especially since Shanahan had such a reputation for turning chicken shyte into chicken salad in the run game.

Last season, the Carolina Panthers relied on Cam Newton an astonishing 678 times to either run or pass. And with that now having been established as the baseline for using an athletic QB to be the foundation of the Redskins offense, I think the Redskins are prepared to throw RGIII into the deep end. So if you're looking to establish RGIII's floor, I would think that 600 touches would be it...if it broke down like 460 pass attempts/100 rushes/40 sacks...with a 7 YPA, that would place RGIII at 3200 passing yards. At a 6 YPC, that would put him ay 600 rushing yards. Which means that if we're establishing his floor at these levels of production, then QB12/QB13 seems even a little low.

At the same time, would I dare draft RGIII over:

Rodgers

Brees

Stafford

Newton

Brady

Romo

E. Manning

P. Manning

Vick

...I wouldn't. And Big Ben, Schaub, and Matt Ryan all represent 'safer' picks. But perhaps lack the upside. At the end of the day, there's never been stronger reasons to pick a QB high AND/OR wait to draft your QB1 late. The ideas contradict themselves, but they also appear to be true. But it's clear that RGIII is already the centerpiece of not only the offense, but the franchise. And I suspect Shanahan didn't give up 3 1st rounders to allow RGIII's a gentle apprenticeship of 15 attempt passing games. RGII will be viable from the start.

Prediction: 277 Completions, 497 Pass Attempts, 3449 Passing Yards, 19 TD's & 14 INT's; 111 rushes, 651 rushing yards; 5 TD's

 

[rizzler]

HOF

And doesn't need to take a snap to do it, either.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I've always found it difficult to try and give my opinion on rookies. It's tough to know or have any type of real expectation of what they could realistically produce. I don't have Cam Newton's Player Spotlight from last year handy, but I suspect noone was really close to what he wound up producing. And while I'm sure a few more people got Mark Ingram correct, without any context...this does seem like a throwing darts exercise.

However, I wanted to understand a little bit more about the Redskins under Shanahan. With early mocks having RGIII being the 12th/13th QB off the board...is this enthusiasm stoked by Cam's epic rookie year, or could RGIII really be an immediate impact player.

Under Shanahan, the Redskins have:

1) Passed 63% of the time with a declining Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman as their primary signal caller. Take into account that the Redskins best WR during this time has been an underwhelming Sanatana Moss and you wonder how bad the run game must have been.

2) Averaged 4160 Passing Yards/season but have also turned in a 40:43 TD-INT ratio.

...it seems odd that despite the subpar QB play the Redskins have had under Shanahan, they've relied on the pass as heavily as they have. Especially since Shanahan had such a reputation for turning chicken shyte into chicken salad in the run game.

Last season, the Carolina Panthers relied on Cam Newton an astonishing 678 times to either run or pass. And with that now having been established as the baseline for using an athletic QB to be the foundation of the Redskins offense, I think the Redskins are prepared to throw RGIII into the deep end. So if you're looking to establish RGIII's floor, I would think that 600 touches would be it...if it broke down like 460 pass attempts/100 rushes/40 sacks...with a 7 YPA, that would place RGIII at 3200 passing yards. At a 6 YPC, that would put him ay 600 rushing yards. Which means that if we're establishing his floor at these levels of production, then QB12/QB13 seems even a little low.

At the same time, would I dare draft RGIII over:

Rodgers

Brees

Stafford

Newton

Brady

Romo

E. Manning

P. Manning

Vick

...I wouldn't. And Big Ben, Schaub, and Matt Ryan all represent 'safer' picks. But perhaps lack the upside. At the end of the day, there's never been stronger reasons to pick a QB high AND/OR wait to draft your QB1 late. The ideas contradict themselves, but they also appear to be true. But it's clear that RGIII is already the centerpiece of not only the offense, but the franchise. And I suspect Shanahan didn't give up 3 1st rounders to allow RGIII's a gentle apprenticeship of 15 attempt passing games. RGII will be viable from the start.

Prediction: 277 Completions, 497 Pass Attempts, 3449 Passing Yards, 19 TD's & 14 INT's; 111 rushes, 651 rushing yards; 5 TD's

Throwing 500 times, I expect him to have more than 14 INTs. More like 20.

 

[fatness]

Because he's a rookie QB on a team that has a a bunch of new WR's and is partly changing the team offensive plan, there were be numerous offensive line breakdowns and numerous passes early in the season that go to odd places, followed by a QB and WR exchanging "WTF?" looks. After several games of uneven offensive performance, Kyle Shanahan begins lobbying Dad at practice to bench Griffin. Kyle is tied to a chair which is tied to the goalpost during that practice. A couple games later on a 3rd-and-5 play where the O-line collapses, Griffin is hit hard by a LB when he tries running for the first down. He misses 2 games to injury. In his place Rex Grossman turns the ball over 7 times in 2 games. Kyle Shanahan responds by tying himself to the goalpost. Griffin returns to start the remaining games and is more in sync with the receivers, and the team wins a majority of its remaining games while looking progressively more productive on offense.

In the offseason the Redskins finally decide to build a decent offensive line. Griffin bulks up a bit to withstand the pounding, and begins hanging out with Sonny Jurgensen. Negotiations begin in earnest with Eastern Motors for a commercial.

 

[Truman]

Last season, the Carolina Panthers relied on Cam Newton an astonishing 678 times to either run or pass. And with that now having been established as the baseline for using an athletic QB to be the foundation of the Redskins offense, I think the Redskins are prepared to throw RGIII into the deep end. So if you're looking to establish RGIII's floor, I would think that 600 touches would be it...if it broke down like 460 pass attempts/100 rushes/40 sacks...with a 7 YPA, that would place RGIII at 3200 passing yards. At a 6 YPC, that would put him ay 600 rushing yards. Which means that if we're establishing his floor at these levels of production, then QB12/QB13 seems even a little low.

At the same time, would I dare draft RGIII over:

Rodgers

Brees

Stafford

Newton

Brady

Romo

E. Manning

P. Manning

Vick

...I wouldn't. And Big Ben, Schaub, and Matt Ryan all represent 'safer' picks. But perhaps lack the upside. At the end of the day, there's never been stronger reasons to pick a QB high AND/OR wait to draft your QB1 late. The ideas contradict themselves, but they also appear to be true. But it's clear that RGIII is already the centerpiece of not only the offense, but the franchise. And I suspect Shanahan didn't give up 3 1st rounders to allow RGIII's a gentle apprenticeship of 15 attempt passing games. RGII will be viable from the start.

Prediction: 277 Completions, 497 Pass Attempts, 3449 Passing Yards, 19 TD's & 14 INT's; 111 rushes, 651 rushing yards; 5 TD's

I think this touches number is about right for the rookie. I like your Shanahan analysis and that's the angle I'm gonna take as well.They threw the ball quite a lot last year so QB touches were up at ~700. It was closer to 600 the year before and has never been below 600 at any time in Shanahans last 5 seasons with McNabb, Grossman, Cutler etc.

RGIII is a better runner than all these guys so will take touches there but I don't expect the Redskins to feed him as much as the Panthers did Newton for a couple reasons - 1) Newton flew out of the gate and was real good real fast, plus they fed him a lot of redzone TDs. 2) Game flow - Shanahan likes to run the ball a lot, Redskins have more talent than the 2011 Panthers and shouldn't need to throw the ball while behind as much

 

[spider321]

HOF

Only if he were a better than average football player on the Steelers.

 

[bengalbuck]

One of the things that tempers my enthusiasm for RG3 as a rookie is his schedule. The NFC East already had some good defenses and they all went D heavy in FA and the draft. Dallas adding Claiborne and Carr. Giants with a killer D Line, trading for Rivers, getting Thomas back from injury and drafting Hosley. Eagles trading for Ryans and drafting Cox, Kendricks and Boykin. There's just a lot of pass rush and DB talent on these 3 teams.

Plus, they play the AFC North where all 4 teams finished high in the defensive rankings and there's quite a bit of pass rush talent going against a pretty mediocre OL.

Cam's big numbers came in large part against some mediocre pass defenses and RG3 will have to face a lot tougher competition. Plus, less domes and warm weather opponents also, which leads to lower offensive numbers. You look at his schedule week 13-16: Giants, Ravens, @Cleveland, @Philly. That's a lot of wind, snow and good defenses.

 

[renesauz]

One of the things that tempers my enthusiasm for RG3 as a rookie is his schedule. The NFC East already had some good defenses and they all went D heavy in FA and the draft. Dallas adding Claiborne and Carr. Giants with a killer D Line, trading for Rivers, getting Thomas back from injury and drafting Hosley. Eagles trading for Ryans and drafting Cox, Kendricks and Boykin. There's just a lot of pass rush and DB talent on these 3 teams.Plus, they play the AFC North where all 4 teams finished high in the defensive rankings and there's quite a bit of pass rush talent going against a pretty mediocre OL.Cam's big numbers came in large part against some mediocre pass defenses and RG3 will have to face a lot tougher competition. Plus, less domes and warm weather opponents also, which leads to lower offensive numbers. You look at his schedule week 13-16: Giants, Ravens, @Cleveland, @Philly. That's a lot of wind, snow and good defenses.

I like RG3...a lot...but anyone expecting Newton like rookie numbers is delusional.I'm looking for passaing yardage in the low 3000 range, with 22 or so TD's and 18 picks. Where Griffin will redeem himself fantasy wise will be his ability to scramble....he could add 450 yards and 5 or 6 TDs on the ground. If you're looking for a fantasy starter this year...he'll suffice but he's not going to carry you. 3100 passing yards, 22 TD/18 INt. 60 carries for 425 yards and 5 TD's. High end redraft backup...future dynasty stud.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Under Shanahan, the Redskins have:1) Passed 63% of the time with a declining Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman as their primary signal caller. Take into account that the Redskins best WR during this time has been an underwhelming Sanatana Moss and you wonder how bad the run game must have been.

The Redskins have been trailing early and often under Shanahan. I think that explains the huge pass ratio, so if Washington actually becomes a better team, that number would have gravitated towards 55% regardless of the QB, IMO.

 

[Buck Stop]

I hope he succeeds just so McNabb looks like an even bigger idiot. And I think he will be a #1 FF QB THIS year. (not the #1 in all of FF, but a #1 worth starting each week)

 

[johnadams]

Won't touch him in redraft. Expectations will be too high simply because Cam blew up last year, but history says that dominating performances by rookie QBs are among the rarest occurences. In dyno, will gladly spend a top four rookie pick, but redraft, someone will take him too high hoping he makes a similar splash as Cam.

 

[Jason Wood]

Won't touch him in redraft. Expectations will be too high simply because Cam blew up last year, but history says that dominating performances by rookie QBs are among the rarest occurences. In dyno, will gladly spend a top four rookie pick, but redraft, someone will take him too high hoping he makes a similar splash as Cam.

I think it's important to remember that more QBs are being thrown into the fire these days. If you expand your search a bit and look at young, mobile QBs and how they fare in their first years as starters (not necessarily as rookies), it paints a fairly compelling picture:*** Steve McNair in his first season as a full-time starter (year 3) ranked QB6 thanks to 674 yards and 8 rushing TDs

*** Daunte Culpepper in his first season as a starter (his 2nd year) ranked QB1 (he threw for 3937 yards and 33 TDs while running for 470 yards and 7 TDs)

*** Mike Vick (Year 2) was QB3 thanks to 777 yards rushing and 8 rush TDs

*** Randall Cunningham (Year 3) was QB2 and had 505 yards rushing and 3 TDs

*** Vince Young was QB12 as a rookie thanks to 552 yards rushing and 7 TDs

*** Donovan McNabb was QB5 in his first year as a full-time starter (year 2) with 629 yards and 6 TDs rushing

*** Steve Grogan (Year 2) was QB2 with 397 yards and 12 rushing TDs

And then there's Cam Newton...

Ultimately the players who profile most like Robert Griffin, have largely has good to great initial fantasy success. Many were not accomplished passers and there teams didn't necessarily win a lot of games, but that ability to create plays in the run game, and the relative value rushing yards and TDs carry in most leagues versus their passing counterparts, argue that Griffin doesn't have to mimic Newton to be a very valuable fantasy buy this year if you can get him outside the Top 10, which I suspect you will as long as you don't live in the D.C. Corridor.

 

[johnadams]

Won't touch him in redraft. Expectations will be too high simply because Cam blew up last year, but history says that dominating performances by rookie QBs are among the rarest occurences. In dyno, will gladly spend a top four rookie pick, but redraft, someone will take him too high hoping he makes a similar splash as Cam.

I think it's important to remember that more QBs are being thrown into the fire these days. If you expand your search a bit and look at young, mobile QBs and how they fare in their first years as starters (not necessarily as rookies), it paints a fairly compelling picture:*** Steve McNair in his first season as a full-time starter (year 3) ranked QB6 thanks to 674 yards and 8 rushing TDs

*** Daunte Culpepper in his first season as a starter (his 2nd year) ranked QB1 (he threw for 3937 yards and 33 TDs while running for 470 yards and 7 TDs)

*** Mike Vick (Year 2) was QB3 thanks to 777 yards rushing and 8 rush TDs

*** Randall Cunningham (Year 3) was QB2 and had 505 yards rushing and 3 TDs

*** Vince Young was QB12 as a rookie thanks to 552 yards rushing and 7 TDs

*** Donovan McNabb was QB5 in his first year as a full-time starter (year 2) with 629 yards and 6 TDs rushing

*** Steve Grogan (Year 2) was QB2 with 397 yards and 12 rushing TDs

And then there's Cam Newton...

Ultimately the players who profile most like Robert Griffin, have largely has good to great initial fantasy success. Many were not accomplished passers and there teams didn't necessarily win a lot of games, but that ability to create plays in the run game, and the relative value rushing yards and TDs carry in most leagues versus their passing counterparts, argue that Griffin doesn't have to mimic Newton to be a very valuable fantasy buy this year if you can get him outside the Top 10, which I suspect you will as long as you don't live in the D.C. Corridor.

I'm a little confused as to why you've bolded the part about rookies while giving examples of QBs who are not rookies. I'll agree that mobile type QBs can have more success early from a fantasy perspective because their rush totals can provide additional scoring, but there is a reason that the stats you provide are mostly not in their rookie years, namely that they aren't ready as starters. I guess in a 2QB league, I'd be a bit more willing to take the risk on him, but in a standard redraft league, I think Cam has set nearly impossible expectations for future rookies (honestly, every rookie QB for the next 20 years is going to be compared to Cam). I'm not saying RGIII won't do well (I think he'll be okay), just that Cam's season has set the bar so high for rookie QBs that both Luck and RGIII are going to get overdrafted.

 

[Jason Wood]

Won't touch him in redraft. Expectations will be too high simply because Cam blew up last year, but history says that dominating performances by rookie QBs are among the rarest occurences. In dyno, will gladly spend a top four rookie pick, but redraft, someone will take him too high hoping he makes a similar splash as Cam.

I think it's important to remember that more QBs are being thrown into the fire these days. If you expand your search a bit and look at young, mobile QBs and how they fare in their first years as starters (not necessarily as rookies), it paints a fairly compelling picture:*** Steve McNair in his first season as a full-time starter (year 3) ranked QB6 thanks to 674 yards and 8 rushing TDs

*** Daunte Culpepper in his first season as a starter (his 2nd year) ranked QB1 (he threw for 3937 yards and 33 TDs while running for 470 yards and 7 TDs)

*** Mike Vick (Year 2) was QB3 thanks to 777 yards rushing and 8 rush TDs

*** Randall Cunningham (Year 3) was QB2 and had 505 yards rushing and 3 TDs

*** Vince Young was QB12 as a rookie thanks to 552 yards rushing and 7 TDs

*** Donovan McNabb was QB5 in his first year as a full-time starter (year 2) with 629 yards and 6 TDs rushing

*** Steve Grogan (Year 2) was QB2 with 397 yards and 12 rushing TDs

And then there's Cam Newton...

Ultimately the players who profile most like Robert Griffin, have largely has good to great initial fantasy success. Many were not accomplished passers and there teams didn't necessarily win a lot of games, but that ability to create plays in the run game, and the relative value rushing yards and TDs carry in most leagues versus their passing counterparts, argue that Griffin doesn't have to mimic Newton to be a very valuable fantasy buy this year if you can get him outside the Top 10, which I suspect you will as long as you don't live in the D.C. Corridor.

I'm a little confused as to why you've bolded the part about rookies while giving examples of QBs who are not rookies. I'll agree that mobile type QBs can have more success early from a fantasy perspective because their rush totals can provide additional scoring, but there is a reason that the stats you provide are mostly not in their rookie years, namely that they aren't ready as starters. I guess in a 2QB league, I'd be a bit more willing to take the risk on him, but in a standard redraft league, I think Cam has set nearly impossible expectations for future rookies (honestly, every rookie QB for the next 20 years is going to be compared to Cam). I'm not saying RGIII won't do well (I think he'll be okay), just that Cam's season has set the bar so high for rookie QBs that both Luck and RGIII are going to get overdrafted.

No one is going to match Cam, but let's remember that you don't have to draft Robert Griffin III anywhere close to where Cam delivered last year. Griffin is being drafted 92nd overall and QB14 right now: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp.php?viewpos=qb&sortby=consensusAs long as he starts from Week One, it's going to be relatively easy for him to vault over that hurdle.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

take the average projections, subtract 20% for the Newton effect, and slot accordingly. QB15-ish if your league does not penalize for turnovers, closer to QB20 if they do.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Just got RG3 as the 13th QB in a start up dynasty. Is this normal? I really thought he would go higher based on the hype.

 

[DansRams]

Just got RG3 as the 13th QB in a start up dynasty. Is this normal? I really thought he would go higher based on the hype.

Seems about right although I think he will end up outperforming where you got him (I have him qb 10 -11) next yr...Nice pick

 

[MAC_32]

If he is going as the 12th-15th QB in redraft he'll be my backup target in the 9th-ish round in all redrafts. Not in any startup dyno's (yet) but if I were I'd be targeting him or Luck.

 

[lbouchard]

I think people might be overrating his rushing ability. He's fast as hell, but isn't nearly as good a football runner as Cam or Vick. I'd be rather surprised if he went 6 YPC or 600 yards rushing.