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Rock Action's Newbie IDP Thread (1 Viewer)

MAC_32

Footballguy
Fair enough. When would have been the right time, in your estimation?

I've gotten one person who doesn't like the deal, either. Andy from the SP would go Robinson's side. I think Gally was perplexed, too. I wouldn't have shipped Robinson if I almost fully didn't believe that each coach wants his guy running the ball, within reason. JAX has so many picks and Urban Meyer now at the helm. Couple that with Robinson's replacement-level and low DVOA from Football Outsiders, his 29th-best grade from PFF, and his thirty percent speed score given his BMI, and I think you've got a recipe for replacement. Of course, I may be REALLY wrong and be forced to regret sending away a 22.4 year old away so quickly from the roster, but I just think if he gets replaced, his stock is sunk and he becomes an asset that is now not worth much. I'd rather invest in guys with draft capital who are clear starters.
He's a hold through the draft. I expect him to be the starter once on the other side. Whether his backup is a vet minimum or mid round pick is inconsequential, but I think it's one or the other and potentially both. I understand the Jags are swimming in assets, but rb is one of the last positions a rebuilder should address. I think he's the lead guy through at least 21.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
He's a hold through the draft. I expect him to be the starter once on the other side. Whether his backup is a vet minimum or mid round pick is inconsequential, but I think it's one or the other and potentially both. I understand the Jags are swimming in assets, but rb is one of the last positions a rebuilder should address. I think he's the lead guy through at least 21.
Ah. Yeah. That's what I'm betting against. Through the draft would be too late if they draft somebody. If I thought they were going to act rationally and not take a RB, I probably don't do the deal, but my uncertainty senses are going wild about Urban Meyer. Perhaps this will be a learning experience for me. At the very least, I've turned either a waiver wire add into a first, second, and starting TE that I sorely lack, or I've turned a pick in the pumpkin patch into a chariot back into a Honda. Time will tell on that one.

 
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Gally

Footballguy
Fair enough. When would have been the right time, in your estimation?

I've gotten one person who doesn't like the deal, either. Andy from the SP would go Robinson's side. I think Gally was perplexed, too. I wouldn't have shipped Robinson if I almost fully didn't believe that each coach wants his guy running the ball, within reason. JAX has so many picks and Urban Meyer now at the helm. Couple that with Robinson's replacement-level and low DVOA from Football Outsiders, his 29th-best grade from PFF, and his thirty percent speed score given his BMI, and I think you've got a recipe for replacement. Of course, I may be REALLY wrong and be forced to regret sending away a 22.4 year old away so quickly from the roster, but I just think if he gets replaced, his stock is sunk and he becomes an asset that is now not worth much. I'd rather invest in guys with draft capital who are clear starters.
I am just not sure if the speed score and other measurable really matter a that much after proving through performance that he can do the job.

I think it was a fine deal but I am generally not as high in draft picks as I am on players that have shown to be good in the NFL.  Based on your view the deal makes sense.

 
Deal I just did in that league.

Gave James Robinson, JaMycal Hasty, Avery Williamson, Rashaan Evans

Got Dallas Goedert, 2021 2.04, 2022 1st round

Let me know what you think. Everything I'm looking at says "go."
It'd help to know if Hasty, Williamson, and Evans have any value in your league.  In my IDP dynasty I might keep Williamson, but Hasty and Evans would definitely get cut for incoming rookies.  (Evans burned me a couple of times last year, and I hold on to grudges.)

So, from my perspective, those picks look a lot better.  There's at least 3 potential stud MLBs (depending on landing spot), which makes that 2.04 more enticing.

In a normal league I'd take Robinson.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
It'd help to know if Hasty, Williamson, and Evans have any value in your league.  In my IDP dynasty I might keep Williamson, but Hasty and Evans would definitely get cut for incoming rookies.  (Evans burned me a couple of times last year, and I hold on to grudges.)

So, from my perspective, those picks look a lot better.  There's at least 3 potential stud MLBs (depending on landing spot), which makes that 2.04 more enticing.

In a normal league I'd take Robinson.
I am having such utter trouble with the new board I'm not sure if I copied, reported, quoted, or shared your post. Sheesh.

I was thinking of that. Evans had value for me. Evans would probably be in contention for LB3 or so. Williamson was behind Spillane and Bush in PIT so I'd probably have had to cut him to make room for other guys.

Who are your three incoming studs?

 

rockaction

Footballguy
I am just not sure if the speed score and other measurable really matter a that much after proving through performance that he can do the job.

I think it was a fine deal but I am generally not as high in draft picks as I am on players that have shown to be good in the NFL.  Based on your view the deal makes sense.
I think having had a Shanahan back on my first foray into RBs (Tim Hightower) in redraft led me to think that on-field performance could get you yanked and your value nil if you did. I haven't shaken that until today, really.

Thanks, though. I've thought long and hard about picks vs. points. I'm not sure where I fall on that. Obviously with Robinson, I felt it was so beyond the norm that I was given pause. If he was a second or third round pick, I wouldn't be worrying.  

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Thanks for comments and feedback, as always. Something to think about before I make another IDP/offense combined deal.

 

Don Quixote

Footballguy
I thought the deal was pretty good for you, rock. More than I would have traded for JRob. But I’m of similar opinion to you that not sure he is the long-term guy in JAX.

 
rockaction said:
I am having such utter trouble with the new board I'm not sure if I copied, reported, quoted, or shared your post. Sheesh.

I was thinking of that. Evans had value for me. Evans would probably be in contention for LB3 or so. Williamson was behind Spillane and Bush in PIT so I'd probably have had to cut him to make room for other guys.

Who are your three incoming studs?
Micah Parsons looks like a lock- he'll go high, and that usually (but not always, Simmons) means that he'll get heavy usage immediately.

Zaven Collins is a definite tackling machine, but from the AAC conference, which is a small knock.  

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is a little undersized for full time LB usage, but he won the Butkus award, and is a proven tackler.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up as a hybrid LB/Safety, which can be very lucrative if he gets hybrid designation.   

Nick Bolton has been getting a lot of love, b/c he led the SEC the last two years in defensive stops, but that's delivered with the caveat that he probably won't impress at the combine.   

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Micah Parsons looks like a lock- he'll go high, and that usually (but not always, Simmons) means that he'll get heavy usage immediately.

Zaven Collins is a definite tackling machine, but from the AAC conference, which is a small knock.  

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is a little undersized for full time LB usage, but he won the Butkus award, and is a proven tackler.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up as a hybrid LB/Safety, which can be very lucrative if he gets hybrid designation.   

Nick Bolton has been getting a lot of love, b/c he led the SEC the last two years in defensive stops, but that's delivered with the caveat that he probably won't impress at the combine.  
I do know about Parsons, but haven't looked into the other guys yet. There will be no combine, so there's only pro days to go off of. You won't get that buzz surrounding guys you'll normally have, I'm assuming.

We don't have hybrid designations, but a safety gets more points per tackle than a linebacker, so if a pro team uses a player as a hybrid a safety designation makes him more valuable, I think.

I'm still not perfect with this, so anybody's mileage may vary.

I thought the deal was pretty good for you, rock. More than I would have traded for JRob. But I’m of similar opinion to you that not sure he is the long-term guy in JAX.
Thanks. I tried to shop him last year to people when I was sure they were in it. I got no responses or "I'm not interested in Robinson." Just was getting flat out "no" for a first, so I figured this was going to be as good as it gets. People guard their picks in our league, it seems. In my limited dealing, only a few part with them.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
JOK will be a 100% snap player. And it will take a lot for me not to consider Surratt in the top 4 LB's.

 
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rockaction

Footballguy
JOK will be a 100% snap player. And it will take a lot for me not to consider Surratt in the top 4 LB's.
Where do you think these guys will go? I know it depends on the league, but imagine Patrick Queen went 2.08 or so last time, Simmons followed right after, and Kenneth Murray went 3.01. Parsons is one of the highest-graded guys ever over at PFF. I wonder when that trigger gets pulled. There are guys here in my league of course, so I'm not tipping my hand about who I'm taking, but I'm curious to know the lay of the land, really.

 
I do know about Parsons, but haven't looked into the other guys yet. There will be no combine, so there's only pro days to go off of. You won't get that buzz surrounding guys you'll normally have, I'm assuming.

We don't have hybrid designations, but a safety gets more points per tackle than a linebacker, so if a pro team uses a player as a hybrid a safety designation makes him more valuable, I think.

I'm still not perfect with this, so anybody's mileage may vary.

Thanks. I tried to shop him last year to people when I was sure they were in it. I got no responses or "I'm not interested in Robinson." Just was getting flat out "no" for a first, so I figured this was going to be as good as it gets. People guard their picks in our league, it seems. In my limited dealing, only a few part with them.
Yeah, that's right, I knew that - of course.  

I was just...testing you, to see if you were paying attention.  Yeah, that's it.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Yeah, that's right, I knew that - of course.  

I was just...testing you, to see if you were paying attention.  Yeah, that's it.
Heh. I never assumed otherwise, actually. It wasn't big news, regardless. It came out of a Schefter tweet. Anybody, including me until Andy Dufresne and Joe B pointed it out, could have missed it.

But, yeah, hey so I knew that too when Andy said it. Of course. Pshaw.

 
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Where do you think these guys will go? I know it depends on the league, but imagine Patrick Queen went 2.08 or so last time, Simmons followed right after, and Kenneth Murray went 3.01. Parsons is one of the highest-graded guys ever over at PFF. I wonder when that trigger gets pulled. There are guys here in my league of course, so I'm not tipping my hand about who I'm taking, but I'm curious to know the lay of the land, really.
My main IDP league starts 8 IDPs, and gives 3 pts per solo tackle.  Queen went at 1.04.  Simmons and K.Murray also went in the 1st round.

Later that year Murray was packaged off along with Carr and Aldon Smith for Golladay, Prescott (post-injury), and Jeffrey.

Now, given how well the rookie RBs and WRs performed, maybe it wasn't the best year to take an LB in the 1st.   But trust me, it'll happen in 2021.

Overall, IDP leagues have a wider variance than standard leagues.   Which makes sense, as there's a lot more factors involved.

 

scothawk

Footballguy
Parsons should go before 1.07.

If the eagles take him I could justify top 5 depending on how league values qb. Also that assumes starting 4 lb like my leagues do.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Where do you think these guys will go? I know it depends on the league, but imagine Patrick Queen went 2.08 or so last time, Simmons followed right after, and Kenneth Murray went 3.01. Parsons is one of the highest-graded guys ever over at PFF. I wonder when that trigger gets pulled. There are guys here in my league of course, so I'm not tipping my hand about who I'm taking, but I'm curious to know the lay of the land, really.
Given the quantity of high level WR, TE, and QB in this crop I am confident my late 2's will net a quality selection. In RB heavy leagues the tier drop may not hit until at least a bit into round 3. 

 

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