With all the young gun WRs emerging Rod Smith was waived in one of my leagues and probably can be had for really cheap in another. He usually ranks with Eddie Kennison (Who's also in a similar position, though my projections for him are much lower with Trent Green out for a while) as one of the most underrated guys in the draft. Is he worth a pickup over young WRs like Jennings and Colston, or upstart RBs like Michael Robinson and Maurice Drew? What's his prognosis for the rest of the year?
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Rod Smith (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter howo5
- Start date
wannabee
Footballguy
i would rather have Jnnings and Colston for certain. Whether you like Smith better than Robinson or Drew depends on your league size, scoring and starting requirements as well as team needs.
RRaptors
Footballguy
I don't know what to think on Rod Smith. With Javon getting it done and other younger WR's learning to play well it seems he will be limited by Shanny. If he has another concussion from what I hear that is really serious. Too big of a risk IMO. I dropped him in one of my leagues to get a younger player with possible upside. (I'm also 0-3 and need players NOW, I just can't wait for Rod to come around).
My personal opinion is it's not worth waiting for him at this point. Javon Walker is the playmaker now, I just don't see R. Smith turning in stats making him worth starting (unless Walker is hurt).
At the beginning of the season I thought Walker would pull coverage giving more opportunities for Smith. I'm not so sure that will happen now that he was injured and is a risk going forward.
My personal opinion is it's not worth waiting for him at this point. Javon Walker is the playmaker now, I just don't see R. Smith turning in stats making him worth starting (unless Walker is hurt).
At the beginning of the season I thought Walker would pull coverage giving more opportunities for Smith. I'm not so sure that will happen now that he was injured and is a risk going forward.
Resident A
Footballguy
Smith has more targets & receptions than Walker. He also missed 3/4 of week 2 when he got the concussion. I think his slow start can be attributed more to Plummer than anything else.
I still see Walker & Smith as 1a & 1b. Walker will get the big plays, Smith will always get more catches. Probably equal in red zone looks. As long as Plummer keeps playing well, I see Smith at around 950-1000 yards & 6-7 TDs. I drafted him to be my WR3, but now have him stashed on my bench & will wait & see.
I still see Walker & Smith as 1a & 1b. Walker will get the big plays, Smith will always get more catches. Probably equal in red zone looks. As long as Plummer keeps playing well, I see Smith at around 950-1000 yards & 6-7 TDs. I drafted him to be my WR3, but now have him stashed on my bench & will wait & see.
cstu
Footballguy
I picked him up off waivers so I don't know how he could be overrated. I'm not expecting much but better than carrying Porter on my bench.
zamboni
Footballguy
If you got him off waivers, then clearly your league isn't overrating him. I just think that many are expecting his typical 70-80 catches, 1000 yards and 6 TDs, and those days may be over.
Texican
Footballguy
The jury is still out IMO. Plummer looked awful the first couple of weeks. Combine that with Rod's brain getting scrambled, and I don't think we really know what Rod has left. They have a bye this week and then play Baltimore. I will watch him closely in week 5 and 6. I think he is actually a guy to target right now. Heck, he's on some league's waiver wires. He is a very consistent receiver and should still put up some quality numbers.
sdsjr3
Footballguy
One thing to consider. I the past 3 years, Rod has basically had the majority of Denver's targets to himself. The last time he had legitimate competition for passes was with McCaffery. Then Rod was the big play guy and Ed was the underneath target. Now, there is a serious threat to Rod's consistancy. Denver in large part is a run first team and uses that to set up the big play. Javon is the big play guy. Rod will, as witnessed last week, see a lot of the underneath stuff when they need 5 or 10 yards. But he won't be the endzone threat any more. I'm sure he'll still have some 80-90 yard games...assuming his noggin isn't too messed up. But so will a lot of other guys that will be utilized around the endzone a whole lot more. Right now I rank Rod BARELY in the top 40.
stevegamer
Footballguy
Buy very low, especially in PPR. After the bye his numbers will look even worse, and you might be able to get your bye week fill-in guy to be Rod Smith.
Interception_Irwin
Footballguy
I waived him to pick up a temp DB to replace Polamalu on his bye.
I rank him close to Moulds and Kennison, who are also on the waiver wire, so I don't really feel bad about dropping him.
I rank him close to Moulds and Kennison, who are also on the waiver wire, so I don't really feel bad about dropping him.
Spike
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Drafted him to be my #3, and for a second it crossed my mind to cut him for FA's this week, but then I remembered that some guy named Grabkowski(sp?) is throwing to Clayton in TB. So Rod got a reprieve, for now.
He's on my bench and may get a spot start, but I'm not expecting anything big from him this year. Would much rather start a young, explosive receiver instead of Rod right now.
He's on my bench and may get a spot start, but I'm not expecting anything big from him this year. Would much rather start a young, explosive receiver instead of Rod right now.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Let's take a look at the 2006 Broncos:
11.5% of passing yards to the TEs
16.9% of passing yards to the RBs
44.1% of passing yards to Javon Walker
16.6% of passing yards to Rod Smith
10.9% of passing yards to other WRs
Let's take a look at the 2005 Broncos:
20.0% of passing yards to the TEs
15.1% of passing yards to the RBs
32.8% of passing yards to Rod Smith
22.8% of passing yards to Ashley Lelie
9.3% of passing yards to other WRs
So how did the passing pie change?
8.5% fewer passing yards to the TEs
This isn't surprising; the loss of Putzier was a sign that Denver would use the TEs less.
1.8% fewer passing yards to the RBs
Mike Anderson was a pretty good receiving ball, and Mike Bell isn't. We'd expect this number to go down a bit, and that might continue if Tatum Bell is on the field more (he's not a receiving threat).
1.6% fewer passing yards to other WRs
Todd Devoe, Nate Jackson, David Kircus, Brandon Marshall and Quincy Morgan vs. Charlie Adams, Todd Devoe, Nate Jackson, David Terrell and Darius Watts = about a wash.
21.3% more passing yards going to Denver's "other starting WR".
Obviously we'd expect Walker to put up better stats than Ashley Lelie. But not by this much. Ashley Lelie had 770 yards last year, an increase of this size would project Javon Walker at 1487 yards. I don't really feel comfortable with projecting Walker at that level. Not by a long shot.
Which brings us to the last, obvious post.
2006 Broncos: 189 passing yards/game (28.7 attempts/game)
2005 Broncos: 211 passing yards/game (29.1 attempts/game)
The attempts are there, but the yards are not. Part of it is circular, because if Rod Smith is worse than he used to be, the Broncos will pass for fewer passing yards, and then Smith will look worse too. But in the end, you've got three questions you have to ask yourself:
Do you think Denver will throw closer to 189 passing yards/game or 211? Personally, I'd say 211, although the Broncos do have a very difficult passing schedule. Plummer looked better this weekend, and the Broncos' running game isn't as good as it was last year, which potentially could help the passing offense. (Although so far, Denver's passed slightly less often in 2006).
Do you think Javon Walker will end up with 44.1% of Denver's passing yards? This one's obviously no. That's 2005 Santana Moss/Steve Smith territory, which just isn't going to happen in Denver. I'd expect Walker to get about 35% of Denver's passing yards.
That leaves an extra 9% of passing yards open, which brings about the third question: Where is that going to go? I'd imagine a healthy Rod Smith would get a big chunk of that. The Denver TEs and RBs aren't very good at catching, and once teams start focusing more on Walker, a healthy Smith will be open more often, and become a very attractive target for Plummer.
I figure Denver will end up with about 200 passing yards/game this year. If Smith is healthy (not just on the field, but the old Smith), then he'll probably get about 25% of those yards. That's 50 yards per game, or 800 yards in the season, or 650 yards for the rest of the year. And it gives Walker 1120 yards for the year (pro-rated to 16 games), or 910 yards for the rest of the season.
The above analysis makes it clear that Walker is the 1 and Smith is the 2. I wouldn't be shocked if it becomes a more 1A and 1B situation, tho. Smith actually has one more target than Walker, despite missing a good chunk of time. A split where they each had about 60 ypg for the remainder of the year would hardly be surprising, and would make Smith a pretty valuable receiver.
11.5% of passing yards to the TEs
16.9% of passing yards to the RBs
44.1% of passing yards to Javon Walker
16.6% of passing yards to Rod Smith
10.9% of passing yards to other WRs
Let's take a look at the 2005 Broncos:
20.0% of passing yards to the TEs
15.1% of passing yards to the RBs
32.8% of passing yards to Rod Smith
22.8% of passing yards to Ashley Lelie
9.3% of passing yards to other WRs
So how did the passing pie change?
8.5% fewer passing yards to the TEs
This isn't surprising; the loss of Putzier was a sign that Denver would use the TEs less.
1.8% fewer passing yards to the RBs
Mike Anderson was a pretty good receiving ball, and Mike Bell isn't. We'd expect this number to go down a bit, and that might continue if Tatum Bell is on the field more (he's not a receiving threat).
1.6% fewer passing yards to other WRs
Todd Devoe, Nate Jackson, David Kircus, Brandon Marshall and Quincy Morgan vs. Charlie Adams, Todd Devoe, Nate Jackson, David Terrell and Darius Watts = about a wash.
21.3% more passing yards going to Denver's "other starting WR".
Obviously we'd expect Walker to put up better stats than Ashley Lelie. But not by this much. Ashley Lelie had 770 yards last year, an increase of this size would project Javon Walker at 1487 yards. I don't really feel comfortable with projecting Walker at that level. Not by a long shot.
Which brings us to the last, obvious post.
2006 Broncos: 189 passing yards/game (28.7 attempts/game)
2005 Broncos: 211 passing yards/game (29.1 attempts/game)
The attempts are there, but the yards are not. Part of it is circular, because if Rod Smith is worse than he used to be, the Broncos will pass for fewer passing yards, and then Smith will look worse too. But in the end, you've got three questions you have to ask yourself:
Do you think Denver will throw closer to 189 passing yards/game or 211? Personally, I'd say 211, although the Broncos do have a very difficult passing schedule. Plummer looked better this weekend, and the Broncos' running game isn't as good as it was last year, which potentially could help the passing offense. (Although so far, Denver's passed slightly less often in 2006).
Do you think Javon Walker will end up with 44.1% of Denver's passing yards? This one's obviously no. That's 2005 Santana Moss/Steve Smith territory, which just isn't going to happen in Denver. I'd expect Walker to get about 35% of Denver's passing yards.
That leaves an extra 9% of passing yards open, which brings about the third question: Where is that going to go? I'd imagine a healthy Rod Smith would get a big chunk of that. The Denver TEs and RBs aren't very good at catching, and once teams start focusing more on Walker, a healthy Smith will be open more often, and become a very attractive target for Plummer.
I figure Denver will end up with about 200 passing yards/game this year. If Smith is healthy (not just on the field, but the old Smith), then he'll probably get about 25% of those yards. That's 50 yards per game, or 800 yards in the season, or 650 yards for the rest of the year. And it gives Walker 1120 yards for the year (pro-rated to 16 games), or 910 yards for the rest of the season.
The above analysis makes it clear that Walker is the 1 and Smith is the 2. I wouldn't be shocked if it becomes a more 1A and 1B situation, tho. Smith actually has one more target than Walker, despite missing a good chunk of time. A split where they each had about 60 ypg for the remainder of the year would hardly be surprising, and would make Smith a pretty valuable receiver.
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the spanker
Footballguy
Cleavage Connoisseur
Footballguy
Great post ! I have Rod as WR 5 in a two leagues, He will be the possesion receiver when Denver passes on 3rd and short. For 1pt. ppr leagues he is O.K. ? In non ppr leagues, I would not touch him.
tombonneau
Footballguy
I drafted him late as WR2 in a .5ppr 14-team league. Obv. he will not produce to this level. I see him as no more than bye week fill-in at this point. Watching those games, the passing offense clearly goes through Walker.
What actually worries me more is the concussions. I'm not sure he lasts the season at this age.
As far as his value, this week I traded Rod-Bledsoe for Vick-V.Davis. I'm happy about the deal. I just think this is the end for Smith. Not that he is not effective, he'll be a solid WR3/4 to plug in for bye weeks, as he will not lay an egg. He's gonna be 6/65 about every week with occassional TDs.
As I stated before though, my biggest concern is his health. When a 36 yo WR is concussed in the first two weeks, then in wk 3 is rumored to be concussed again but denies it, the writing is on the walls.
What actually worries me more is the concussions. I'm not sure he lasts the season at this age.
As far as his value, this week I traded Rod-Bledsoe for Vick-V.Davis. I'm happy about the deal. I just think this is the end for Smith. Not that he is not effective, he'll be a solid WR3/4 to plug in for bye weeks, as he will not lay an egg. He's gonna be 6/65 about every week with occassional TDs.
As I stated before though, my biggest concern is his health. When a 36 yo WR is concussed in the first two weeks, then in wk 3 is rumored to be concussed again but denies it, the writing is on the walls.
RowdyDude
Footballguy
I am holding Smith on my bench at this time. I am expecting Denver to be in the playoff run and when the pressure is on and the weather gets bad i look for Shanny and Plummer to look for Smith more also I believe that Rookies especially rookie WR either breakdown or defense get enough film on them to make them less effective. There is a reason this guy has been on the league so long.
Texican
Footballguy
Are you predicting him to barely make the top 40 for the year? (If he plays the year out)
Gopher State
Footballguy
I would use Smith as bye week #4 WR. I see him slipping some with Walker, and the strong Denver running game.
Mmen of Steel
Footballguy
True. Javon cemented that status after last week. But Rod Smith is still going to get his fair share of targets.In my league, some dude dropped him to bid on Brian Berriman. I got Smith this week for practically nothing. Hopefully, you can do the same !
If you're hurting for talent in Week 6 (as I am), a Plummer-Walker-Smithtrio is a good start against Oakland. Just somethiong to consider....
my man otis
Footballguy
Still a hold:
- Actually does have the most targets on the team
- After the Ravens this week Denver's got Oakland, Clev and Indy, three good matchups, though I can see the first two turning into more of the Tatum show than anything.
- Walker has looked good but he is coming off of a major knee injury.
- Actually does have the most targets on the team
- After the Ravens this week Denver's got Oakland, Clev and Indy, three good matchups, though I can see the first two turning into more of the Tatum show than anything.
- Walker has looked good but he is coming off of a major knee injury.
