Roethlisberger v. THE Patriots (1 Viewer)

[gheemony]

This is a hard match-up for me to evaluate. I think there are two overly-simplified ways to look at this matchup:

1. It's going to be a shoot-out and Big Ben is a good/great start this week.

2. This is a match-up of two excellent teams that will be close. The NE defense has slowed down a bit (in comparison to their early season standard), Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses, and a blue print for success has been shown. The NE defense is not shabby, so expect a decent game out of Ben with a change of a very good game and also a slight risk of a bad game.

If I had to choose between the two, I'd lean towards option 2. It's not scientific, but it seems like, more often than not, the "it's going to be a shoot-out" thinking rarely proves true.

I'm guessing a lot of Big Ben owners have a decent alternative at QB and are in the playoffs, so this is a critical decision.

Discuss.

 

[Dodge]

This will be a great game I think. A lot of pressure on Brady and a lot of running by FWP. If the Steelers can contain Moss and rush Brady it will be close. Gotta see how Holmes is this week. I say it's a one score game at the end 27-24, 21-14 or something like that. To close to call right now.

And why is it "THE" Patriots?

 

[MDSkinner]

Steelers are #1 in total defense and the Pats are #6. I doubt it ends up being a shootout.

That said if you have Ben you pretty much have to start him right?

 

[SteelCat]

Uh.....look what Boller and Phi Back up did to them last 2 weeks. They looked like all pros. Plus I think the Pitt offense is gonna show up.

I'm starting him with confidence.

Only problem is.....it is in NE. I'm hoping Ben doesn't get rattled but it could possibly happen. I give that scenario about a 30% chance.....

 

[Godsbrother]

The Steelers have gotten off to slow starts lately, both offensively and defensively. If that happens against the Patriots the Steelers are going to be throwing a lot.

If you don't mind a few picks, Ben should have good numbers this week.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Agreed with GB's assessment. I don't think Parker is going to have a McGahee-type game in NE so the Steelers will have to pass.

 

[munchkin]

Ellis Hobbs is going to need help against S Holmes if he plays. Hobbs really looks clueless at times and is exploitable. I would start Ben and expect a pretty decent game. Of course the caveat is that the O-Line will have to step up.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Didn't Rodney Harrison and Ellis Hobbs both get hurt last night? I know they both went out, but I did not notice if they returned. if either or both of them are out, and/or Holmes returns, all or any of these factors should be considered before benching Ben.

 

[mofo313]

Poor planning to have my starting QB (on 2 teams) playing the Pats in week 1 of the playoffs....I hope he gets plenty of chunky soup this week.

 

[titanT]

KFFL is reporting that Santonio Holmes is going to try to practice tomorrow.

 

[[icon]]

Ben will be running for his life and will likely throw at LEAST one INT.. if not 2-3.

 

[CalBear]

AJ Feeley: 347 total yards, 3 TD 3 INT

Kyle Boller: 219 total yards, 2 TD 1 INT

Roethlisberger: Better than that. Expect a good game.

 

[[icon]]

AJ Feeley: 347 total yards, 3 TD 3 INTKyle Boller: 219 total yards, 2 TD 1 INTRoethlisberger: Better than that. Expect a good game.

Those teams both have better pass protection than PIT as well. The Pats will be in Ben's face all night long.

 

[Aaronstory]

"Predictions? Pain."

 

[Steeler]

What is the outlook?

PAIN!

 

[Steeler]

"Predictions? Pain."

I'm too slow

 

[thehornet]

AJ Feeley: 347 total yards, 3 TD 3 INTKyle Boller: 219 total yards, 2 TD 1 INTRoethlisberger: Better than that. Expect a good game.

Those teams both have better pass protection than PIT as well. The Pats will be in Ben's face all night long.

this isnt true. all 3 are relatively the same.

 

[PantherPower]

I think Ben will have one of his best games this year. He's a competitive guy, and this is a BIG game. I'm starting him with confidence in several leagues.

 

[crowe1130]

I'm very worried about Roethlisberger having time to throw. The Steelers, and in particular their pass protection, have been questionable at best on the road this year. I'm not sure I'd bet my fantasy season on Ben in week 1 of the fantasy playoffs, regardless of what I will be rooting for.

Oh, btw,

 

[Intergalactic Kegger]

The Patriots defense can give up points so that is not the interesting matchup. Even though the Patriots have played in close games lately, no one has shut down this offense.

I want to see the Patriots offense vs the #1 ranked defense in the NFL. I'm really interested to see who blinks.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I'm starting Ben and the Steelers D against my Pats. Either way I win.

I expect 250/2.5/2.5 and maybe a rush TD from Ben. Outside shot a pick 6 from the Steelers D.

NE 38

Pitt 28

 

[PatsWillWin]

Is Holmes healthy?

 

[gheemony]

Steelers are #1 in total defense and the Pats are #6. I doubt it ends up being a shootout.That said if you have Ben you pretty much have to start him right?

Not necessarily. I've got Hasslebeck at home against the Cards. I think a number of Big Ben owners drafted him with another QB in the 8-14 range and may have options.

 

[gheemony]

Is Holmes healthy?

 

[pecorino]

The Patriots defense can give up points so that is not the interesting matchup. Even though the Patriots have played in close games lately, no one has shut down this offense. I want to see the Patriots offense vs the #1 ranked defense in the NFL. I'm really interested to see who blinks.

completely agree: the #1 offense versus the #1 defense is the allure of this game for me.

 

[poopdawg]

Polamalu is back this week, correct?

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

From the Tomlin Presser today... not much detail on anyone yet:

I’ll give you a quick update on the status of some men. Marvel Smith potentially can play for us this week. We’ll see how he performs. He is scheduled to participate in a limited basis in practice tomorrow. We’ll see where he is, as is Santonio Holmes and Troy Polamalu. All of those guys are potentially capable of playing this weekend but it will be based on how they perform in practice and we will get a better gauge on where they are tomorrow as we go out and play a little football. Najeh Davenport needs to get some tests run to see where he is. He could be listed as questionable at this point. He was involved in the funeral services for Sean Taylor so he is on his way back now and we will get some tests run on him this afternoon to see where he is. His injury is described at this point as an inflammation of his right foot. We will have more information for you later and see where he is and move forward with him. But all in all, we are a healthy football team moving into this weekend. I am sure you know we need all hands on deck.

 

[munchkin]

AJ Feeley: 347 total yards, 3 TD 3 INTKyle Boller: 219 total yards, 2 TD 1 INTRoethlisberger: Better than that. Expect a good game.

Those teams both have better pass protection than PIT as well. The Pats will be in Ben's face all night long.

this isnt true. all 3 are relatively the same.

Their O-Line looked especially good against the Jets....

 

[Fantaholic]

I think the secret is out at this point that if you want to beat the Patriots you need to run the ball down their throat. Couple that with the fact that the Steelers are a smash mouth style of team, and I think you have the Steelers game plan for Sunday.

I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

 

[Godsbrother]

I think the secret is out at this point that if you want to beat the Patriots you need to run the ball down their throat. Couple that with the fact that the Steelers are a smash mouth style of team, and I think you have the Steelers game plan for Sunday. I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

Agreed. The problem for the Steelers is they've been having difficulty running the ball lately.

 

[Sheriff66]

I'm not optimistic about this weekend, our O-line sucks, and you need to be able to run the ball to beat the Pats. The O-line needs to dig down deep and play their best game of the year for the Steelers to have a chance...

 

[Blueb]

I think the secret is out at this point that if you want to beat the Patriots you need to run the ball down their throat. Couple that with the fact that the Steelers are a smash mouth style of team, and I think you have the Steelers game plan for Sunday. I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

Agreed. The problem for the Steelers is they've been having difficulty running the ball lately.

Right. You've been pointing out the Steelers' O-Line problems for a while now so I'm wondering what you think about this: Last week the Ravens ran the ball on NE behind Ogden. Can FWP be as effective as McGahee was against NE with Pitts' O-line?

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

Think you may regret that.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

Think you may regret that.

Agree. Strictly from a fantasy football aspect, Ben is far more likely to put up better stats than FWP due to the aforementioned line issues, provided your league doesn't penalize to severely for the possibility of a couple picks. Of all possible fantasy starters, I think Ward is the best play, followed by Ben, followed by Miller. FWP, the other receivers, and the defense are shady starts, IMO.I will be interested to see if the Steelers can "use the blueprint" [/lameESPNlingo] to shutdown Welker as the Ravens did.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I think the secret is out at this point that if you want to beat the Patriots you need to run the ball down their throat. Couple that with the fact that the Steelers are a smash mouth style of team, and I think you have the Steelers game plan for Sunday. I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

Agreed. The problem for the Steelers is they've been having difficulty running the ball lately.

Right. You've been pointing out the Steelers' O-Line problems for a while now so I'm wondering what you think about this: Last week the Ravens ran the ball on NE behind Ogden. Can FWP be as effective as McGahee was against NE with Pitts' O-line?

I doubt it. Parker is not as talented as McGahee or Westbrook, and the O-lines are not too far apart (Philly's maybe a little better, Baltimores = or &lt. Pitt's running game is not nearly as dominant as it has been in the past but still put up decent total #s due to the # of plays they get on offense thanks to their defense and the type of game their D allows them to play. If it's a close game, and the Pats play = run vs. pass D, Parker gets swallowed. If the Pats get the lead, Parker will have a higher ypc w/ fewer carries and don't get excited about the screen pass last week. RBs are very underutilized in the Pitt passing game.

 

[3nOut]

I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

Think you may regret that.

Agree. Strictly from a fantasy football aspect, Ben is far more likely to put up better stats than FWP due to the aforementioned line issues, provided your league doesn't penalize to severely for the possibility of a couple picks. Of all possible fantasy starters, I think Ward is the best play, followed by Ben, followed by Miller. FWP, the other receivers, and the defense are shady starts, IMO.I will be interested to see if the Steelers can "use the blueprint" [/lameESPNlingo] to shutdown Welker as the Ravens did.

I have Ben, Moss and Welker and am seriously debating benching Welker this week.

 

[ditka...mike ditka]

I have started Rothlisburger all year but Im considering benching him for Derek Anderson.....it will be a tough decision though..

 

[The Shizzle]

I am so sick of seeing the word Blueprint.

Baltimore did not have it, they played a totally opposite style that Philly played and they were successful.

I see Ben having a game similar to:

18/27 285 yards 2 TD and 2 INT.

 

[Thumper]

I have started Rothlisburger all year but Im considering benching him for Derek Anderson.....it will be a tough decision though..

I like Big Ben and FWP vs a somewhat better than average Patriots defense. Such superstars as A.J. Feely and Kyle Boller have made the Pat's D look very human.The thing that seperates the Pat's from everyone is their offense. Not their good but not great defense.Big Ben should be good for 220 yards 2 td's 2 int's

 

[ceisenhower66]

Lots of good points here...just want to add my thoughts.

On offense, versus NE, Baltimore ran the ball very well. The Steelers have not really been running the ball all that well. Yeah, the yardage numbers look good for Parker, but he has been very ineffective. Lots of runs for negative yardage or a yard or two gain. Meanwhile, Ben is having a very good season. So what does this mean? Well, in my opinion, the Steelers have been winning in spite of their o-line woes and inconsistent running game (the reason they will not go far in the playoffs). Ben has been mostly brilliant and really is the reason the Steelers are scoring points. A team like the Jets showed how to stymie his creativity, however. They blitzed from the edges and forced Ben to stay in the pocket. The result was that the defensive NT exploited the Steelers center Mahan and got sacks. Ben could not get outside the pocket to create. Fast forward to the Steelers/Bengals game and shifting to the running game, it was clear the Steelers were going to pass in the red zone. The weather was brutal, as was the field, but Ben/Arians were set on throwing to score. And that's what they did. This wasn't an anomaly. They have been doing this all season, which is clear when you look at the number of Parker TDs vs. the number of TDs by the tight ends and Ward. Holmes usually gets the longer TDs. They are a passing team in the red zone.

Shifting to defense, Baltimore got a lot of pressure on Brady. It looked to me like the Ravens trusted their CBs in man coverage and used one or two safeties back there depending on the situation. The rest of the guys blitzed all the time. I expect the Steelers to try to do the same. Ike Taylor will probably be on Moss and need the game of his life. McFadden will probably be on Stallworth, although they may switch that if Taylor struggles. The guy that worries me for NE is Welker. I guess Townsend will cover him, but he's not as fast as Welker. That means that the safeties...Tyrone Carter, Anthony Smith, and maybe Polamalu will have to help with the pass coverage. So obviously, that doesn't leave a lot of guys to blitz, but we all know the Steelers will find a way to try to get pressure. If they don't, Brady will dissect them.

I'm rambling, so to sum this up, I expect a shootout, which does not bode well for the Steelers. Neither team is going to run the ball well. Ben is going to have to match Brady, just like Feeley tried to do. I expect Ben to put up at least 250 yards with 2-3 TDs and 2-3 INTs. He's better than Feeley and Boller, but the Pats seem to have his number. Still, him playing well and putting up big numbers is the Steelers best shot of winning.

The other option is to jump out to a 14-0 lead with two Ben TD passes like they did in the playoffs vs. Indy a few years ago. And then hope the D is stout enough to maintain the lead...while sprinkling in a lot of FWP to kill the clock.

 

[Brutis]

I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

Think you may regret that.

Im doing the exact opposite.

 

[icon]

I see Ben having a game similar to:18/27 285 yards 2 TD and 2 INT.

 

[lebowski]

Good topic! I think this is a tough one to predict. I think I am personally rolling with Big Ben this week, hoping that he steps up his game this week. I'm hoping for a minimum of 250 and 2 TD's.

Disclosure...Big Ben owner.

 

[Franknbeans]

I think the secret is out at this point that if you want to beat the Patriots you need to run the ball down their throat. Couple that with the fact that the Steelers are a smash mouth style of team, and I think you have the Steelers game plan for Sunday. I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

Agreed. The problem for the Steelers is they've been having difficulty running the ball lately.

and pass blocking. They better run FWP or they might be missing their QB for the stretch drive

 

[whitem0nkey]

this may be a mistake but im going to start ben over Jason Campbell

 

[whitem0nkey]

this may be a mistake but im going to start ben over Jason Campbell

 

[Rozelle]

I like Ben in this one, he should put up solid numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pittsburgh attack thru the air early and try to get up, then ... try and grind it out. They have what it takes to knock off New England, whether or not they get it done ... we'll see.

 

[Fantaholic]

I think the secret is out at this point that if you want to beat the Patriots you need to run the ball down their throat. Couple that with the fact that the Steelers are a smash mouth style of team, and I think you have the Steelers game plan for Sunday.

I am benching Ben and starting Parker this week barring any major news flashes.

Agreed. The problem for the Steelers is they've been having difficulty running the ball lately.

Right. You've been pointing out the Steelers' O-Line problems for a while now so I'm wondering what you think about this: Last week the Ravens ran the ball on NE behind Ogden. Can FWP be as effective as McGahee was against NE with Pitts' O-line?

I doubt it. Parker is not as talented as McGahee or Westbrook, and the O-lines are not too far apart (Philly's maybe a little better, Baltimores = or &lt. Pitt's running game is not nearly as dominant as it has been in the past but still put up decent total #s due to the # of plays they get on offense thanks to their defense and the type of game their D allows them to play. If it's a close game, and the Pats play = run vs. pass D, Parker gets swallowed. If the Pats get the lead, Parker will have a higher ypc w/ fewer carries and don't get excited about the screen pass last week. RBs are very underutilized in the Pitt passing game.

I think some consideration needs to be given for the conditions that FWP and his line have been operating in the past two weeks. Week 12 was basically played on a 100 yard sponge. Week 13 was a bit better, but hardly condusive to a shifty-type RB. I'm not saying FWP has been a stud this year, obviously he hasn't been. But, in a year that most #1 draft picks have been busts, FWP has been pretty consistent in terms of yardage. The TD totals are a bit of an anomoly. This week they come into Foxboro where the field conditions shoud be a breath of fresh air and having recently watched two teams come close to beating the Pats by running all over them. The ONLY two teams to come close to beating them. Regardless of recent o-line performance, I would think that they would like to exploit their opponent's weakness.

 

[Pat Patriot]

I think Pittsburgh has a good D but I'm not 100% sure.

They are rated #1 right now but IMO three games in terrible weather contribute greatly to that ranking. We'll see if Pittsburgh lives up to their ranking.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I think Pittsburgh has a good D but I'm not 100% sure.They are rated #1 right now but IMO three games in terrible weather contribute greatly to that ranking. We'll see if Pittsburgh lives up to their ranking.

They were #1 before any of those games, so while that might have "padded the lead" there, but it isn't the reason they're ranked #1 by any stretch, That said, maintaining their remarkable stats against a lethal Patriots offense is a Herculean task for even the best defenses. I can't imagine they can shut New England down - I don't think anyone can.