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Ronnie Hillman and Julius Thomas Named Starters (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Doubledown1313
- Start date
ninerfanatic492000
Footballguy
And the montee ball owners erupt in 3-2........
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
how does anyone expect ball to open as the starter on fox's team?
ball owners will be waiting all year
ball owners will be waiting all year
Sabertooth
Footballguy
This has committee written all over it. No thanks
Adam Harstad
Moderator
rocketsauce
Footballguy
1 day ago all the Moreno & Ball owners were firing off about how excited they were, and burying Hillman.
I've always been in the "avoid this thing at all costs if you're looking for an RB2" camp. It's going to be maddening.
I've always been in the "avoid this thing at all costs if you're looking for an RB2" camp. It's going to be maddening.
Shutout
Footballguy
Said in jest but its probably accurate. We know what Moreno does in pass protection but if hillman is seeing time also, then you have to think ball's role is primarily something else.
Touchdown vulture to ruin any FF starter value that the IRL starter might have.
It's looking quite difficult to pick a guy from this team who will put up weekly numbers anybody here in interested in.
Phenix
Footballguy
Exactly, everything is about protecting the Hall of Famer throwing the ball to 3 elite WRs as they march to the SB.
Want no part of this. Rule #1 to winning a fantasy title this year in redraft: Draft Peyton Manning.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Injuries, or some good play could change that in a hurry, though. I'll still be keeping tabs on this situation.
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Eric Decker is now considered "Elite"? This game has passed me by.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
It ought to be interesting to see what the work load and snap count in real games shakes out like. I have a feeling those crowing about Ball's demise may have some regrets - especially if Hillman puts the ball on the ground yet again, and opponents will be going to great lengths to strip him given his history so far. Ball's very few misses in protection pick up are sure getting a lot of play with no regard to his well documented and stated improvement since that week 2 PS game.
But this is one of those situations where proponents will only see what they want to see and ignore the rest.
But this is one of those situations where proponents will only see what they want to see and ignore the rest.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Manning will die if he DOESN'T give Ball some passing downs. Predictability is far more dangerous to a QB than a poor pass-blocking RB. If every time Ball goes off the field the defense knows to expect a pass, and every time Ball comes on the field the defense knows to expect a run, they're going to tee off on the Broncos and shut them down.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Last year, Denver's backs combined for 449 carries for 1829 yards (4.06 ypc) with 12 TDs, plus another 65/518/1 receiving. That's good for 312.7 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. I would expect the rushing TD total to come up, as well as the YPC some (I'd be hard-pressed to see Denver rushing for barely 4 ypc again given the amount of nickel defense they'll be facing- especially because Moreno was the primary reason it was so low, and Moreno's running 3rd on the depth chart). Call it 450 carries for 1935 yards (4.3 ypc) with 15 TDs, with maybe 60/500/2 receiving, or 345.5 points. Assume that 10% of that is going to go to Hester and Anderson (last season, Denver's 4th and 5th RBs were Hester and Lance Ball, who got 17.5% of the fantasy points... but that was largely a result of McGahee's injury). That leaves 311 points left to divide among Hillman, Ball, and Moreno.
Over the last 5 years, the average RB24 has scored 140 fantasy points in standard. The average RB18 has scored 164 fantasy points. Assuming all of my projections to this point are in the ballpark, and there's 311 fantasy points to divide among Hillman, Ball, and Moreno, one back will need to score 45% of the fantasy points in order to be a very low-end RB2, or 53% of the fantasy points to be a middle-of-the-road RB2. Assuming the split won't be a perfect 33/33/33/ split (hint: it won't), then either of those are totally achievable. If it's 40/40/20, you've got a pair of crappy RB2s / fantastic flex plays. If the split is 50/30/20, you've got a very credible RB2 and a crappy flex play. If one of the three gets injured, you're either looking at a fantasy RB1 or else a fantasy RB2 + flex-worthy backup.
As it stands, I see Moreno getting maybe 20% of the split. I think he'll be the primary back when Denver's in its 2-minute offense, but in standard game situations, I expect him to be the 3rd option just like the depth chart says he is. That means either one of Hillman or Ball will almost certainly be startable (but underwhelming- we're talking low-to-middle-end RB2), or both will be flex-able.
At least, that's how I see everything playing out. There's a lot of risk inherent in the situation (I feel like my projections are realistic, but if Denver underperforms them, or if the split winds up closer to 33/33/33, or if C.J. Anderson throws his hat into the ring, you could be burning multiple roster spots on players who are completely unstartable, even as a flex). At the same time, there's a lot of upside, too.
Over the last 5 years, the average RB24 has scored 140 fantasy points in standard. The average RB18 has scored 164 fantasy points. Assuming all of my projections to this point are in the ballpark, and there's 311 fantasy points to divide among Hillman, Ball, and Moreno, one back will need to score 45% of the fantasy points in order to be a very low-end RB2, or 53% of the fantasy points to be a middle-of-the-road RB2. Assuming the split won't be a perfect 33/33/33/ split (hint: it won't), then either of those are totally achievable. If it's 40/40/20, you've got a pair of crappy RB2s / fantastic flex plays. If the split is 50/30/20, you've got a very credible RB2 and a crappy flex play. If one of the three gets injured, you're either looking at a fantasy RB1 or else a fantasy RB2 + flex-worthy backup.
As it stands, I see Moreno getting maybe 20% of the split. I think he'll be the primary back when Denver's in its 2-minute offense, but in standard game situations, I expect him to be the 3rd option just like the depth chart says he is. That means either one of Hillman or Ball will almost certainly be startable (but underwhelming- we're talking low-to-middle-end RB2), or both will be flex-able.
At least, that's how I see everything playing out. There's a lot of risk inherent in the situation (I feel like my projections are realistic, but if Denver underperforms them, or if the split winds up closer to 33/33/33, or if C.J. Anderson throws his hat into the ring, you could be burning multiple roster spots on players who are completely unstartable, even as a flex). At the same time, there's a lot of upside, too.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Last year, Denver's backs combined for 449 carries for 1829 yards (4.06 ypc) with 12 TDs, plus another 65/518/1 receiving. That's good for 312.7 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. I would expect the rushing TD total to come up, as well as the YPC some (I'd be hard-pressed to see Denver rushing for barely 4 ypc again given the amount of nickel defense they'll be facing- especially because Moreno was the primary reason it was so low, and Moreno's running 3rd on the depth chart). Call it 450 carries for 1935 yards (4.3 ypc) with 15 TDs, with maybe 60/500/2 receiving, or 345.5 points. Assume that 10% of that is going to go to Hester and Anderson (last season, Denver's 4th and 5th RBs were Hester and Lance Ball, who got 17.5% of the fantasy points... but that was largely a result of McGahee's injury). That leaves 311 points left to divide among Hillman, Ball, and Moreno.
Over the last 5 years, the average RB24 has scored 140 fantasy points in standard. The average RB18 has scored 164 fantasy points. Assuming all of my projections to this point are in the ballpark, and there's 311 fantasy points to divide among Hillman, Ball, and Moreno, one back will need to score 45% of the fantasy points in order to be a very low-end RB2, or 53% of the fantasy points to be a middle-of-the-road RB2. Assuming the split won't be a perfect 33/33/33/ split (hint: it won't), then either of those are totally achievable. If it's 40/40/20, you've got a pair of crappy RB2s / fantastic flex plays. If the split is 50/30/20, you've got a very credible RB2 and a crappy flex play. If one of the three gets injured, you're either looking at a fantasy RB1 or else a fantasy RB2 + flex-worthy backup.
As it stands, I see Moreno getting maybe 20% of the split. I think he'll be the primary back when Denver's in its 2-minute offense, but in standard game situations, I expect him to be the 3rd option just like the depth chart says he is. That means either one of Hillman or Ball will almost certainly be startable (but underwhelming- we're talking low-to-middle-end RB2), or both will be flex-able.
At least, that's how I see everything playing out. There's a lot of risk inherent in the situation (I feel like my projections are realistic, but if Denver underperforms them, or if the split winds up closer to 33/33/33, or if C.J. Anderson throws his hat into the ring, you could be burning multiple roster spots on players who are completely unstartable, even as a flex). At the same time, there's a lot of upside, too.
Over the last 5 years, the average RB24 has scored 140 fantasy points in standard. The average RB18 has scored 164 fantasy points. Assuming all of my projections to this point are in the ballpark, and there's 311 fantasy points to divide among Hillman, Ball, and Moreno, one back will need to score 45% of the fantasy points in order to be a very low-end RB2, or 53% of the fantasy points to be a middle-of-the-road RB2. Assuming the split won't be a perfect 33/33/33/ split (hint: it won't), then either of those are totally achievable. If it's 40/40/20, you've got a pair of crappy RB2s / fantastic flex plays. If the split is 50/30/20, you've got a very credible RB2 and a crappy flex play. If one of the three gets injured, you're either looking at a fantasy RB1 or else a fantasy RB2 + flex-worthy backup.
As it stands, I see Moreno getting maybe 20% of the split. I think he'll be the primary back when Denver's in its 2-minute offense, but in standard game situations, I expect him to be the 3rd option just like the depth chart says he is. That means either one of Hillman or Ball will almost certainly be startable (but underwhelming- we're talking low-to-middle-end RB2), or both will be flex-able.
At least, that's how I see everything playing out. There's a lot of risk inherent in the situation (I feel like my projections are realistic, but if Denver underperforms them, or if the split winds up closer to 33/33/33, or if C.J. Anderson throws his hat into the ring, you could be burning multiple roster spots on players who are completely unstartable, even as a flex). At the same time, there's a lot of upside, too.
death of the cool
Footballguy
I took Julian Thomas as my last pick in my draft last week to back up Jimmy Graham. I figured that it couldn't hurt to hang on to him for a few weeks just to see if he blows up.
identikit
Footballguy
Perhaps what's different now is that Hillman has improved quite a bit while Moreno has been recovering from injury plus they drafted another RB fairly highly.
This situation is pretty fluid.,
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Nucker101
Footballguy
Great news for Thomas. I'm definitely intrigued by him as a TE2 now. As for the RB situation, I'll take a flyer on the cheapest guy out of Ball, Hillman and Moreno and hope I end up getting a decent RB3 out of it, I'm guessing Moreno will now go back to being the third Den RB off of the board like he was a few weeks ago. One Hillman/Ball fumble/pass protection mistake could send them to the bench and benefit the other 2 backs. From what I understand, Moreno is the best pass blocker of the bunch, but the Broncos seems to like Hillman and Ball's natural running abilities better so we'll see how it plays out. But there's no way I'm burning an early mid round pick any any of these guys over RB's who are actually starters and have some leash or over quality TE's/QB's/WR's.
Up until hillman displayed his newly found affection for fumblitis, I was viewing this situation similarly to the situation in St. Louis. Everyone believes that pead or Stacey would be the lead back. No one believed it would be Richardson, a lower draft pick whose size seems to be better suited for a COP Rb.
Thus far, Richardson has priced doubters wrong and is going into the season as the unquestioned starter.
Until hillman started fumbling I was viewing his situation as similar.
Aside from the fumbling he has flat out beat montee ball in preseason games. He shows more explosiveness and he was even getting tough yards BW the tackles and gl looks.
If the Denver coaches gain trust back in him I think hillman can take the job and run with it this year.
But man did he out himself in a pickle by not taking care of the ball.
Thus far, Richardson has priced doubters wrong and is going into the season as the unquestioned starter.
Until hillman started fumbling I was viewing his situation as similar.
Aside from the fumbling he has flat out beat montee ball in preseason games. He shows more explosiveness and he was even getting tough yards BW the tackles and gl looks.
If the Denver coaches gain trust back in him I think hillman can take the job and run with it this year.
But man did he out himself in a pickle by not taking care of the ball.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Any minute now.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
hang on - let me crack this snickers
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
purestrength
Footballguy
Where the heck did this come from? Lol
duaneok66
Footballguy
socrates
Footballguy
We have been hearing glowing reviews of Hillman in camp thus far, and I thought he looked good last night. He runs with great burst (no surprise there), but he also displayed some surprising power for a smaller back. Coach Fox has noted that Hillman's level of dedication in preparation has improved, and that will serve him well. If he can hang onto the rock, he should be in line for a more significant role. I know folks are gun shy after last season's debacle, but considering his current ADP, Hillman could be a valuable end-of-your-bench investment, and if nothing develops, he could be quickly dropped for the waiver wire darling of the week.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Original Projection: 450/1935/15 (4.3 ypc), 60/500/2, 345.5 fantasy points.
Actual Production: 422/1853/15 (4.4 ypc), 92/812/3, 374.5 fantasy points.
Not too shabby on the rushing, but I really underestimated how effective the RBs would be in the passing game (largely because I underestimated how effective the entire passing game would be.)
Obviously the biggest whiff was projecting the breakdown. Actual breakdown had Moreno getting 63% of the fantasy points, Ball getting 25%, and all others getting just 12%.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Honestly, I'd be pretty good using last year's projections over again. Not much has changed on the offense. Call it 440/1936/15 (4.4ypc), 60/500/2 receiving (drop in receiving numbers owing to regression in the passing game and the loss of Denver's best receiving RB).Alex P Keaton said:
As usual, the key is the split. If Ball (or anyone else) gets 60% of that pie, that would translate to 207 fantasy points, which would have been good for Eddie Lacy/Demarco Murray numbers last year (although, it should be noted, both Lacy and Murray missed time and therefore averaged more points per game). Basically, mid-range RB1 numbers. If Ball only gets 50% of that pie, you're looking at about 173 fantasy points in standard, or Frank Gore / Alfred Morris numbers. I'd anticipate closer to 60% than 50%, provided Ball is recovered from his surgery by the regular season opener, so that would translate to low-end RB1 numbers for fantasy.
