Rookie comparitive values? (1 Viewer)

[Tillmanisahero]

I have seen a ton of lists ranking players and that is great but I was wondering if we could put a comparative list together.

What I mean is picking a player at a position that you think is the "gold standard" or the best. Then assign a number that shows the comparative value to each other player.

I thought this kind of list might help for Auction values. Deciding on just how much better Mcfadden is than Stewart can make a big difference in you spending. It is similar to "Tiering" just more hard numbers.

example:

D. Mcfadden 1.0

J. Stewart .99 (meaning that he is incredibly close to McFadden) or J. Stewart .85 (meaning significant difference)

When putting it together consider talent, surrounding talent (OL and such) and Offensive philosophy and system etc...

Here is my stab at some rookie rbs

D. Mcfadden 1.0

J. Stewart 9.5

R. Mendenhall 9.3

K. Smith 8.1

M. Forte 7.8

C. Johnson 7.7

F. Jones 7.6

R. Rice 7.5

R. Torain 6.8

J. Charles 6.0

J. Hester 4.8

 

[Burning Sensation]

I have seen a ton of lists ranking players and that is great but I was wondering if we could put a comparative list together.What I mean is picking a player at a position that you think is the "gold standard" or the best. Then assign a number that shows the comparative value to each other player.I thought this kind of list might help for Auction values. Deciding on just how much better Mcfadden is than Stewart can make a big difference in you spending. It is similar to "Tiering" just more hard numbers.example. Mcfadden 1.0J. Stewart .99 (meaning that he is incredibly close to McFadden) or J. Stewart .85 (meaning significant difference)When putting it together consider talent, surrounding talent (OL and such) and Offensive philosophy and system etc...Here is my stab at some rookie rbsD. Mcfadden 1.0J. Stewart 9.5R. Mendenhall 9.3K. Smith 8.1M. Forte 7.8C. Johnson 7.7F. Jones 7.6R. Rice 7.5R. Torain 6.8J. Charles 6.0J. Hester 4.8

Mcfadden 1Stewart 9.2Mendenhall 8.8Forte 7.5Smith 7.5CJohnson 7.4Rice 7.2Jones 7.1Slaton 6.5Torrain 5.Charles 4.7Choice 4.6Hightower 4.5Parmele 4.1Hester 3.5

 

[EBF]

If you look at draft position as a historical predictor of success, the tiers basically break down like this:

First Round - (65% chance of success)

Second Round - (35% chance of success)

Third Round - (30% chance of success)

Fourth Round - (10% chance of success)

Fifth Round - (Less than 5% chance of success)

Sixth Round - (Less than 5% chance of success)

Seventh Round - (Less than 5% chance of success)

With that in mind, you might break things down like so:

McFadden - 70

Stewart - 65

Jones - 65

Mendenhall - 65

Johnson - 65

Forte - 35

Rice - 35

Smith - 30

Charles - 30

Slaton - 30

Choice - 10

Torain - 5

That's a fairly objective take on it. My personal subjective opinion would look quite a bit different, as I think some of these players have a better chance of success than others who were drafted in a similar range. I think Stewart, Mendenhall, Rice, and Choice generally offer the best bang for your buck.

 

[beto]

IWhat I mean is picking a player at a position that you think is the "gold standard" or the best. Then assign a number that shows the comparative value to each other player.I thought this kind of list might help for Auction values.

You could also try using ADP in startup dynasty drafts to help with the auction numbers.

 

[treat88]

If you look at draft position as a historical predictor of success, the tiers basically break down like this:First Round - (65% chance of success) Second Round - (35% chance of success)Third Round - (30% chance of success)Fourth Round - (10% chance of success)Fifth Round - (Less than 5% chance of success)Sixth Round - (Less than 5% chance of success)Seventh Round - (Less than 5% chance of success)With that in mind, you might break things down like so:McFadden - 70Stewart - 65Jones - 65Mendenhall - 65Johnson - 65Forte - 35Rice - 35Smith - 30Charles - 30Slaton - 30Choice - 10Torain - 5That's a fairly objective take on it. My personal subjective opinion would look quite a bit different, as I think some of these players have a better chance of success than others who were drafted in a similar range. I think Stewart, Mendenhall, Rice, and Choice generally offer the best bang for your buck.

EBF, are your numbers a guess or do you have a breakdown of success rates based on round drafted?Are these numbers specific to position?If you, or anyone else, do have these numbers, I would be very interested in seeing them. If needs be PM me at your convenience.TIA

 

[switz]

I have seen a ton of lists ranking players and that is great but I was wondering if we could put a comparative list together.What I mean is picking a player at a position that you think is the "gold standard" or the best. Then assign a number that shows the comparative value to each other player.I thought this kind of list might help for Auction values. Deciding on just how much better Mcfadden is than Stewart can make a big difference in you spending. It is similar to "Tiering" just more hard numbers.example. Mcfadden 1.0J. Stewart .99 (meaning that he is incredibly close to McFadden) or J. Stewart .85 (meaning significant difference)When putting it together consider talent, surrounding talent (OL and such) and Offensive philosophy and system etc...Here is my stab at some rookie rbsD. Mcfadden 1.0J. Stewart 9.5R. Mendenhall 9.3K. Smith 8.1M. Forte 7.8C. Johnson 7.7F. Jones 7.6R. Rice 7.5R. Torain 6.8J. Charles 6.0J. Hester 4.8

Honestly, the best way to do this would be to slot them the way the NFL does... as far as rookie contracts go. Hence you need to go largely by draft position.Your method here is clearly entirely subjective to your opinion of McFadden, and players in comparison. I'd love that in my league, as I don't think McFadden is the best RB in the long term, and would be glad to see someone else overpay for him.

 

[Ksquared]

You might look at Fear & Loathings dynasty thread or his blog. He gives each major player (inc rookies) a numerical value from 100 and down for dynasty. The blog is at Sons of the Tundra Dynasty Rankings and the best dynasty thread out there is at Dynasty Thread

 

[EBF]

EBF, are your numbers a guess or do you have a breakdown of success rates based on round drafted?Are these numbers specific to position?If you, or anyone else, do have these numbers, I would be very interested in seeing them. If needs be PM me at your convenience.TIA

A couple years back I looked at all the skill position players drafted in the past few years in rounds 1-7 and calculated the odds that they would succeed (where success was defined as achieving significant FF value for at least one season). Those percentages I listed above correspond roughly to my results. Unfortunately, I don't have a link handy. It's something I can probably do again and more thoroughly when I get a chance. There are a few concrete things that seem to hold true though:- First round picks succeed far more often than players chosen in any other round.- Second and third round picks succeed at roughly the same rate.- Players drafted after the 4th round very rarely succeed, although there have been some good QBs to come out of that range (Hasselbeck, Bulger, Brady).