Rookie Pick Hoarding (1 Viewer)

[Donsmith753]

Looking to start a bit of discussion around so called "rookie fever" and see if anyone has examples of this working successfully. It's very easy at this time of year to get captivated with rookie draft picks and this problem can be exacerbated for those that don't have Championship teams.

While I believe in a good class like this there is potential for this strategy to work, generally I think you probably end up assuming a lot of risk and that it's unlikely all your picks will turn out as you like.

My main league is a 16 team 0.5 PPR dynasty which starts 3WR and a flex. One team in this league has been acquiring picks over the course of last year and of the first 32 Picks (2 rounds) he now holds 9.

1.06 - 6

1.08 - 8

1.09 - 9

1.10 - 10

1.16 - 16

2.02 - 18

2.03 - 19

2.06 - 22

2.10 - 26

In order to get these picks he's traded at one point or another all of the following players:

Roeth, Ponder, Cruz,Dion Lewis,Royster,Jacobs,Winslow,Turner,Romo,Redman,Lance Moore,Pierre Thomas,Woodhead,Boldin, Daniel Thomas, Dustin Keller, Reggie Wayne

His team currently has three good players who he got through trades (Brees, McFadden and Decker) but otherwise will be relying on those picks coming through.

Realistically looking at the list and knowing my league, he's likely to end up with Kendall Wright and 2 of Miller/Martin/Wilson, after that it gets a bit more confusing.

Personally I'd never seen anyone go this far acquiring picks (he also has 4 3rd rounders) and have my doubts over whether it will be succesful. I'm certain it'll be fun to watch but wondered if anyone has any examples of teams employing this strategy and whether it worked for them.

With a % of 1st round rookie picks likely to bust this seems a hugely risky approach but in a league with a few dominant teams maybe that's the approach that's needed.

 

[sspunisher]

I've seen some ridicilous things in dynasties. One owner traded Matt Forte away last year for the #1 overall pick, and picked Julio Jones. To me that's just falling victim to draft time hype.

In your situation, I really like what the guy did. I don't like any of the players he traded away except for Romo and Cruz, but he has Brees so even that's understandable. Wayne, Boldin and Pierre Thomas are just names to me, so if you can get value for them I'd be all over it. Turner might have the most value there but in a dynasty he's the kind of player you're better cutting one year too early than one year too late.

Other than Cruz, I'd rather have all those rookie picks instead of those players but that's just b/c I always find myself hitting on the rookies I select.

 

[Donsmith753]

Wasn't really my intention to turn this into an AC thread FWIW, I think you bring up a valuable point though that ultimately it comes down to what you think you're good at. If you think you always make good picks then a strategy like this makes sense.

It just seems to be a very high risk strategy, even just looking back at last years drafts those 1st rounders picks would have netted Ryan Williams, Daniel Thomas, Roy Helu, Kendall Hunter and Andy Dalton.

 

[Crippler]

It is a fine way to rebuild. Having a team that is consistently just missing the playoffs or barely squeaking in and going out in round 1 is frustrating. But doing a total rebuild should net you a high pick.

I have 8 picks in the top 32 of my draft(and was 12 at one point but dealt 2 away) but I own the 2, 3, 7, and 9 in round 1. The team I took over was like the above. They had huge holes so I went to get a stud through draft.

So it is viable option for any team but not sure why he has Brees still. And he did not end up with a prime pick but that is probably because of Brees. Cheap way to get the Fortes, Rices, McCoys, Nicks etc of this world.

This seems like an exciting draft to rebuild with.

BTW: In PPR I think Julio Jones > Matt Forte and in 3 years you will be saying what a great trade.

 

[Donsmith753]

It is a fine way to rebuild. Having a team that is consistently just missing the playoffs or barely squeaking in and going out in round 1 is frustrating. But doing a total rebuild should net you a high pick.

I have 8 picks in the top 32 of my draft(and was 12 at one point but dealt 2 away) but I own the 2, 3, 7, and 9 in round 1. The team I took over was like the above. They had huge holes so I went to get a stud through draft.

So it is viable option for any team but not sure why he has Brees still. And he did not end up with a prime pick but that is probably because of Brees. Cheap way to get the Fortes, Rices, McCoys, Nicks etc of this world.

This seems like an exciting draft to rebuild with.

BTW: In PPR I think Julio Jones > Matt Forte and in 3 years you will be saying what a great trade.

He actually held the 1.2 at one and traded that in a deal for Brees to another team that's doing a similar thing. Agree with what you're saying, only difference is you've managed to get the 2 & 3 which offer almost locks at their respective positions.

 

[comfortably numb]

Looking to start a bit of discussion around so called "rookie fever" and see if anyone has examples of this working successfully. It's very easy at this time of year to get captivated with rookie draft picks and this problem can be exacerbated for those that don't have Championship teams.

While I believe in a good class like this there is potential for this strategy to work, generally I think you probably end up assuming a lot of risk and that it's unlikely all your picks will turn out as you like.

My main league is a 16 team 0.5 PPR dynasty which starts 3WR and a flex. One team in this league has been acquiring picks over the course of last year and of the first 32 Picks (2 rounds) he now holds 9.

1.06 - 6

1.08 - 8

1.09 - 9

1.10 - 10

1.16 - 16

2.02 - 18

2.03 - 19

2.06 - 22

2.10 - 26

In order to get these picks he's traded at one point or another all of the following players:

Roeth, Ponder, Cruz,Dion Lewis,Royster,Jacobs,Winslow,Turner,Romo,Redman,Lance Moore,Pierre Thomas,Woodhead,Boldin, Daniel Thomas, Dustin Keller, Reggie Wayne

His team currently has three good players who he got through trades (Brees, McFadden and Decker) but otherwise will be relying on those picks coming through.

Realistically looking at the list and knowing my league, he's likely to end up with Kendall Wright and 2 of Miller/Martin/Wilson, after that it gets a bit more confusing.

Personally I'd never seen anyone go this far acquiring picks (he also has 4 3rd rounders) and have my doubts over whether it will be succesful. I'm certain it'll be fun to watch but wondered if anyone has any examples of teams employing this strategy and whether it worked for them.

With a % of 1st round rookie picks likely to bust this seems a hugely risky approach but in a league with a few dominant teams maybe that's the approach that's needed.

That's nothing, You must not have been in a league with the infamous AJ?

 

[Shutout]

I have been playing in 16 team IDP dynasty leagues for many years now and I have seen this tactic employed a handful of times, once with a team that was a borderline playoff team the year prior (barely missed out).

My mantra with these things has always been that every draft pick is as good (or bad) as the guy behind making the selection so I guess whether this is a "smart" strategy depends on the genius (or luck) of the guy pulling the trigger.

With that being said, I recall the guy that had the most extreme case of this (ended up with somethin like 1.02, 1.04, 106-1.11..in total, like 10 of the top 18 picks). He did this the year that Addai came out and at the end of the draft he had a team that looked likwe it would be a world-beater for years. He has never made the playoffs in our large league. I don't recall if all these guys were drafted the same year but in the aftermath of his selecting hot name rookies and keeping some and moving others, he ended up with Addai, JSTEW, Roddy, Cutler, and a good list of names. But it never panned out.

I've seen guys do it on a lesser scale with mixed-bag results. Overall, the teams that I have seen do the best in these large dynasty IDP leagues are the teams that DON'T have a lot of picks. These are the guys that trade away their future first rounder (which ends up being 1-10-1.16) during their playoff run for an established player. Not a star player, but just a solid guy that helps them in the present and continues to be solid in the future.

 

[Sinrman]

I used to trade away rookie picks (in a Keep-12 league I'm in), where I could get viable vets for rookie picks. But the last few years, with nice

crops of rookies, I've gone the opposite direction and invested in the future. It has overall helped, but it's a very risky business. Too many

rookies do not pan out, whereas with vets you at least have an idea of what you are getting (not always, but typically you do).

I think it just depends on the rookie class. If it's strong, and you recognize that early enough (i.e. - before the hype machine begins), then

you can nab some great rookie picks and have "pick of the litter." But a weak class, like what I view this year's offense rookies overall, and

you had best nail it with those picks.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

In 2004 I traded away aging (but still good) talent for the 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 (my record gave me the 1.5), 1.9 and the 1.10 picks in a 10 team 10 player keeper. I was finishing middle of the pack and talent was only getting older so I flipped for a re-haul. I drafted the following:

1.1: Steven Jackson

1.2: Kevin Jones

1.3: Kellen Winslow

1.5: Larry Fitzgerald (I absolutely knew #4 was taking Eli Manning or I would have taken Fitz at 1.3)

1.9: Reggie Williams

1.10: Carson Palmer

I drafted basically what was going to be my future starting lineup (I still had a few good players like Andre Johnson)So, out of 6 1st round picks I say I had 2 solid hits (Jackson, Fitz), 1 ok pick (Palmer), and 3 duds, out of what was supposed to be a "Can't Miss" class. Not sure I will ever invest that heavily in the rookie class again.........

 

[Shutout]

In 2004 I traded away aging (but still good) talent for the 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 (my record gave me the 1.5), 1.9 and the 1.10 picks in a 10 team 10 player keeper. I was finishing middle of the pack and talent was only getting older so I flipped for a re-haul. I drafted the following:1.1: Steven Jackson1.2: Kevin Jones1.3: Kellen Winslow1.5: Larry Fitzgerald (I absolutely knew #4 was taking Eli Manning or I would have taken Fitz at 1.3)1.9: Reggie Williams1.10: Carson PalmerI drafted basically what was going to be my future starting lineup (I still had a few good players like Andre Johnson)So, out of 6 1st round picks I say I had 2 solid hits (Jackson, Fitz), 1 ok pick (Palmer), and 3 duds, out of what was supposed to be a "Can't Miss" class. Not sure I will ever invest that heavily in the rookie class again.........

that was a sentinel year for our dynasty league for me also. I was starving at RB and passed on Kevin Jones and Julius Jones for Fitz. Worked out obviously but, like you said, that was a class with guys like tatum bell, even where you would have thought there were a lot of blue chippers. So even in years where you think the talent is stacked, its not always like that. Probably just as true the other way. I remember guys like Mike wallace and Desean jackson and jarred Allen going late in drafts. Gronk and Graham were late 2s or early 3s. Again, each pick is just as valuable as the guy making the decision.

 

[Cold Dead Hands]

In my contract league this year I hold the 1.01, 1.03, 1.04, 1.05, 1.09, 2.01. I have been tempted by a few trade offers to aquire the 1.07 and 1.08 but at this point will likely stick. Being a contract league there is a bit more risk long term as there are cap hits if you drop players. I am excited to see how this all turns out.

I don't usually value rookie picks, in most of my leagues I trade them away, but for the last two years in this league I have focused on youth. We'll just have to see.

 

[sspunisher]

There's one significant error in the way this guy is thinking though. Those 1st and 2nd rounders should be evenly split between two years, not just one year.

Let me see if I can explain this the right way. Let's assume 50 rookie RBs and WRs were drafted last year, and let's assume only 10 of them are considered "hits". A good 3 or 4 of them will get drafted before this guy even picks. So it's like he's' casting 9 fishing rods (draft picks) to catch the remaining 6 fish. 3 or 4 of his picks undoubtedly won't pan out (assuming he drafts perfectly). I'd rather have 5 high picks in 2012 to try to get one of the 5 or 6 studs that are surely left in the draft, and then have 4 high picks in 2013 to again go after the 5 or 6 studs that are remaining.

Statistically, you're maximizing the value of your picks and not just drafting in bulk and hoping for the best. If he really studies his prospects, he won't need 9 picks in the first two rounds.

 

[Donsmith753]

There's one significant error in the way this guy is thinking though. Those 1st and 2nd rounders should be evenly split between two years, not just one year.Let me see if I can explain this the right way. Let's assume 50 rookie RBs and WRs were drafted last year, and let's assume only 10 of them are considered "hits". A good 3 or 4 of them will get drafted before this guy even picks. So it's like he's' casting 9 fishing rods (draft picks) to catch the remaining 6 fish. 3 or 4 of his picks undoubtedly won't pan out (assuming he drafts perfectly). I'd rather have 5 high picks in 2012 to try to get one of the 5 or 6 studs that are surely left in the draft, and then have 4 high picks in 2013 to again go after the 5 or 6 studs that are remaining.Statistically, you're maximizing the value of your picks and not just drafting in bulk and hoping for the best. If he really studies his prospects, he won't need 9 picks in the first two rounds.

Good point here. That seems to fit more with what the team that received the 1.02 is doing. He's got that (for luck or griffin), the 1.12 this year and then 3 firsts next year (2 probably early and 1 mid). He had a younger core than the other guy to begin with but has managed to retain all of it (Lynch, Djax, S.Johnson) and adding Luck and 4 other first rounders over two years could work just as well as having lots of 1sts this year.

 

[JPeso]

I've seen some ridicilous things in dynasties. One owner traded Matt Forte away last year for the #1 overall pick, and picked Julio Jones. To me that's just falling victim to draft time hype.

Wait...what?

 

[Bojang0301]

I have a league where one guy consistantly hoards rediculous amounts of picks. That strategy has never panned out considering he does the same thing every year.

 

[sspunisher]

There's one significant error in the way this guy is thinking though. Those 1st and 2nd rounders should be evenly split between two years, not just one year.Let me see if I can explain this the right way. Let's assume 50 rookie RBs and WRs were drafted last year, and let's assume only 10 of them are considered "hits". A good 3 or 4 of them will get drafted before this guy even picks. So it's like he's' casting 9 fishing rods (draft picks) to catch the remaining 6 fish. 3 or 4 of his picks undoubtedly won't pan out (assuming he drafts perfectly). I'd rather have 5 high picks in 2012 to try to get one of the 5 or 6 studs that are surely left in the draft, and then have 4 high picks in 2013 to again go after the 5 or 6 studs that are remaining.Statistically, you're maximizing the value of your picks and not just drafting in bulk and hoping for the best. If he really studies his prospects, he won't need 9 picks in the first two rounds.

Good point here. That seems to fit more with what the team that received the 1.02 is doing. He's got that (for luck or griffin), the 1.12 this year and then 3 firsts next year (2 probably early and 1 mid). He had a younger core than the other guy to begin with but has managed to retain all of it (Lynch, Djax, S.Johnson) and adding Luck and 4 other first rounders over two years could work just as well as having lots of 1sts this year.

Yea that's definitely the way to go IMO. I still like what he did though, I'm all for getting rid of players you don't like.

 

[Donsmith753]

I have a league where one guy consistantly hoards rediculous amounts of picks. That strategy has never panned out considering he does the same thing every year.

Yeah the old "Patriots" system isn't the way to go. I think something like this can only really be once. You need to make the picks and trust that they'll work out. You'll never get anywhere if you keep selling guys on for more picks the next year.

 

[jeter23]

I've seen some ridicilous things in dynasties. One owner traded Matt Forte away last year for the #1 overall pick, and picked Julio Jones. To me that's just falling victim to draft time hype.

Wait...what?

Yeah, wondered about that too. It was risky I guess, but it paid off. Julio is worth more than Forte in my PPR leagues.

 

[sspunisher]

I've seen some ridicilous things in dynasties. One owner traded Matt Forte away last year for the #1 overall pick, and picked Julio Jones. To me that's just falling victim to draft time hype.

Wait...what?

I'm saying draft picks are most valuable during draft season, and less valuable the farther away from a draft you are. Offering a Forte owner a 1st rounder in the middle of the regular season would be more likely to get a rejection than making the same offer immediately before a dynasty rookie draft.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Im a pick mover.

I routinely trade my picks for more vet established type players.

The one rebuild I had, the league died so I never got to see how it ended.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I've seen some ridicilous things in dynasties. One owner traded Matt Forte away last year for the #1 overall pick, and picked Julio Jones. To me that's just falling victim to draft time hype.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Looking to start a bit of discussion around so called "rookie fever" and see if anyone has examples of this working successfully. It's very easy at this time of year to get captivated with rookie draft picks and this problem can be exacerbated for those that don't have Championship teams.While I believe in a good class like this there is potential for this strategy to work, generally I think you probably end up assuming a lot of risk and that it's unlikely all your picks will turn out as you like.My main league is a 16 team 0.5 PPR dynasty which starts 3WR and a flex. One team in this league has been acquiring picks over the course of last year and of the first 32 Picks (2 rounds) he now holds 9.1.06 - 61.08 - 81.09 - 91.10 - 101.16 - 162.02 - 182.03 - 192.06 - 222.10 - 26In order to get these picks he's traded at one point or another all of the following players:Roeth, Ponder, Cruz,Dion Lewis,Royster,Jacobs,Winslow,Turner,Romo,Redman,Lance Moore,Pierre Thomas,Woodhead,Boldin, Daniel Thomas, Dustin Keller, Reggie WayneHis team currently has three good players who he got through trades (Brees, McFadden and Decker) but otherwise will be relying on those picks coming through.Realistically looking at the list and knowing my league, he's likely to end up with Kendall Wright and 2 of Miller/Martin/Wilson, after that it gets a bit more confusing.Personally I'd never seen anyone go this far acquiring picks (he also has 4 3rd rounders) and have my doubts over whether it will be succesful. I'm certain it'll be fun to watch but wondered if anyone has any examples of teams employing this strategy and whether it worked for them. With a % of 1st round rookie picks likely to bust this seems a hugely risky approach but in a league with a few dominant teams maybe that's the approach that's needed.

Not sure if it will work for him, but honestly I don't think he traded away any real valuable pieces to do it - he wasn't winning woth those guys either. Romo and Big Ben are the only legit players he dealt away and QBs in that range QB7-12 aren't all that difficult to acquire.ETA: I missed Victor Cruz as well. That one may sting.

 

[smashingsilver]

If one was to go the route of mass draft pick acquisition, I think they have to realize that the process does not stop once the picks are made. As OTA, TC and early season news hits, these rookies' values can spike tremendously. You often have the opportunity to recover more than your initial investment by flipping those rookies for other players and future picks.The other option is based on this point:

I'm saying draft picks are most valuable during draft season, and less valuable the farther away from a draft you are.

Knowing this to be true, a mediocre team may acquire picks when their price is low (e.g. preseason), and then sell them off when their value is higher (right now). Running a dynasty team is often like playing the stock market, buying and selling to improve your overall portfolio. As long as an owner is diligent at working the trade market, this is definitely a legitimate strategy.

 

[matttyl]

In my 10 team dynasty league we have the ability to trade future draft picks (up to 2 years out, so currently 2014). Being that we obviously haven't played the 2013 season, we don't know the order of the 2014 picks. That didn't stop me from "hoarding" 2014 1st round picks, and I currently have 6 of them. If nothing else I can use them as "currency" to trade for players over the next two years should I have injuries. If I don't have any injuries and don't trade any of those picks, I've got 6 of the top 10 picks in that draft. Yeah, I've got to wait a while to actually use them, but the roster I have now will be extremely competitive over the next two years anyway.

I fully endorse the strategy, but get back to me in 2-4 years to know the full outcome!

 

[Concept Coop]

Running a dynasty team is often like playing the stock market, buying and selling to improve your overall portfolio. As long as an owner is diligent at working the trade market, this is definitely a legitimate strategy.

This. Trades should be looked at on an idividual basis, not reduced to a trend or strategy. If you traded for a lot of late 1st-mid 2nd round picks last year and ended up with Newton, Murray, Smith and Helu, the strategy worked. If you drafted players that don't pan out, the strategy didn't.

 

[gandalas]

In my 10 team dynasty league we have the ability to trade future draft picks (up to 2 years out, so currently 2014). Being that we obviously haven't played the 2013 season, we don't know the order of the 2014 picks. That didn't stop me from "hoarding" 2014 1st round picks, and I currently have 6 of them. If nothing else I can use them as "currency" to trade for players over the next two years should I have injuries. If I don't have any injuries and don't trade any of those picks, I've got 6 of the top 10 picks in that draft. Yeah, I've got to wait a while to actually use them, but the roster I have now will be extremely competitive over the next two years anyway.I fully endorse the strategy, but get back to me in 2-4 years to know the full outcome!

The only problem with this is that most owners do not want to pay their league fees 2 years in advance, and in any respectable league, that is the rules for trading away future draft picks. You want to trade a 2014 pick in my league? Sure, but you had better pay up your 2013 and 2014 dues first.

 

[az_prof]

It is a fine way to rebuild. Having a team that is consistently just missing the playoffs or barely squeaking in and going out in round 1 is frustrating. But doing a total rebuild should net you a high pick. I have 8 picks in the top 32 of my draft(and was 12 at one point but dealt 2 away) but I own the 2, 3, 7, and 9 in round 1. The team I took over was like the above. They had huge holes so I went to get a stud through draft. So it is viable option for any team but not sure why he has Brees still. And he did not end up with a prime pick but that is probably because of Brees. Cheap way to get the Fortes, Rices, McCoys, Nicks etc of this world. This seems like an exciting draft to rebuild with. BTW: In PPR I think Julio Jones > Matt Forte and in 3 years you will be saying what a great trade.

I disagree. Unless your team is really, really bad, and you only have one or two good players who also happen to be getting older (28 +), then I think this is a mistake. If you are a borderline playoff team or a one game and out playoff team, that means you only need one player in most cases to be a true competitor for trophy. Often you can get that player in FA. Or, you could use your one first round rookie pick to fill that hole and if you draft well, you are good to go. Or, you could try to trade area of strength to fill the weakness, without giving up everything to get picks.I have seen teams that are constantly in rebuild mode. It's ugly.

 

[Shanahanigans]

I think the success of this strategy depends on how high the picks you can acquire are and how good the class is perceived to be, but in general it is a bad idea to constantly be trading for future picks.

Last year one of the owners in our league traded quite a bit in order to get the 1.2 and the 1.3, and he already owned the 1.1. Acquiring Green, Jones, and Ingram I believe he has set his team up nicely for the future. However,that was for the first 3 picks in the draft, if we are talking about late firsts and 2nd rounders, I would say it is a terrible idea to stockpile them. In most drafts the difference between around 1.3 and around 1.8 is much more significant than the drop off from around 1.12 to around 2.24. A lot of times if you trade your picks and be patient you can score someone in the 3rd who is of similar value to whoever you may have taken in the 2nd. The point is that after around 1.8 it is usually a crapshoot, so I think it is a bad to hoard picks after that point.

That being said, if you are in a total rebuild it makes no sense to hang on to ageing veterans that will be washed up by the time you have a contender. There is one owner in our league who has one of the worst teams and his only gem is Welker, but he does not seem to find it necessary to even try to move him to help him rebuild a team that has become a mess. If his team ever does get better, by then Welker will be long gone.

 

[Kiddnets]

Tried it last year in a long term keeper league where you can sign rookies for relative cheap up to 5 yrs....I dealt alots of good expirings and decent but not star players for the following:

1.03 - Ingram

1.12 - Vereen

1.13 - D Carter

1.14 - D Murray

1.15 - Cam Newton

So with 5 picks out of 16 in the 1st rd so far:

1 star - Cam

1 looking good - Murray

1 contriubtor but shaky - Ingram

2 unknowns - Vereen and Carter

so the good news is with that many picks you are bound to hit on one or 2 studs...problem is that the bust rate is high so you will likely be left with one or 2 duds as well.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Acquiring a lot of picks is a good strategy because picks don't lose value until they are spent.

Using all those accumulated picks on rookies may not be a good strategy.

 

[Shanahanigans]

If you have one of the best teams in the league it makes sense to do the opposite. If you have an elite starting line-up but are only missing one piece it makes sense to trade future picks, most likely in addition to one of your depth players, to acquire what may be the missing piece to a champiionship.

 

[Banemorth]

Ask me in a couple of years if it's a viable strategy.

I gave up:

Murray, DeMarco DAL RB

McCoy, LeSean PHI RB

Flynn, Matt GBP QB

Britt, Kenny TEN WR

Year 2012 Round 2 Draft Pick

I got:

Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.01

Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.02

Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.04

Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.08

Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.15

Locker, Jake TEN QB

Watt, J.J. HOU DE;

Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick

Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick

Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick

Year 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick

 

[Concept Coop]

To use the stock market comparison - retirement plan, specifically - the closer you are to retirement (championship), the safer you should be. The further you are from retirement, the more risky you can (should) be.

 

[matttyl]

Ask me in a couple of years if it's a viable strategy.I gave up:Murray, DeMarco DAL RBMcCoy, LeSean PHI RBFlynn, Matt GBP QBBritt, Kenny TEN WRYear 2012 Round 2 Draft PickI got:Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.01Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.02Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.04Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.08Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.15Locker, Jake TEN QBWatt, J.J. HOU DE;Year 2013 Round 1 Draft PickYear 2013 Round 1 Draft PickYear 2013 Round 1 Draft PickYear 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick

What did you have on your team to begin with?! Flynn, McCoy, Murray and Britt are already a VERY good, young basis for a team. Not sure I would have done this.In my case, I traded for all of those future firsts, but I still have Rodgers, Rice, Calvin, Nicks, V Jax, D Thomas, Finley and Vernon Davis to fall back on.

 

[Concept Coop]

Tried it last year in a long term keeper league where you can sign rookies for relative cheap up to 5 yrs....I dealt alots of good expirings and decent but not star players for the following:1.03 - Ingram1.12 - Vereen1.13 - D Carter1.14 - D Murray1.15 - Cam NewtonSo with 5 picks out of 16 in the 1st rd so far:1 star - Cam1 looking good - Murray1 contriubtor but shaky - Ingram2 unknowns - Vereen and Carterso the good news is with that many picks you are bound to hit on one or 2 studs...problem is that the bust rate is high so you will likely be left with one or 2 duds as well.

I think you are much better off than you were before you made the picks. Current value (my guess):Ingram: 1.05-1.06Vereen: 1.12-2.2Carter: 2.06-2.08Murray: 1.2-1.05Newton: 1.01 +If we are going to use startup value, Newton alone is worth the picks you spent.

 

[Shanahanigans]

To use the stock market comparison - retirement plan, specifically - the closer you are to retirement (championship), the safer you should be. The further you are from retirement, the more risky you can (should) be.

I agree with this completely. If it aint broke don't fix it, and if it is broke the only way to fix the team is to shake things up.

 

[No Way Jose]

To use the stock market comparison - retirement plan, specifically - the closer you are to retirement (championship), the safer you should be. The further you are from retirement, the more risky you can (should) be.

That's a good analogy. Trading a stud away from a team that is playoff calibre can make a great team mediocre and can ruin a team. However if your team is a couple years away from being competitive, might as well get some value for him while you can. Nothing worse than getting that 1.4-1.7 rookie pick every year. Gimme 1.1 or 1.12.

 

[Kiddnets]

Tried it last year in a long term keeper league where you can sign rookies for relative cheap up to 5 yrs....I dealt alots of good expirings and decent but not star players for the following:1.03 - Ingram1.12 - Vereen1.13 - D Carter1.14 - D Murray1.15 - Cam NewtonSo with 5 picks out of 16 in the 1st rd so far:1 star - Cam1 looking good - Murray1 contriubtor but shaky - Ingram2 unknowns - Vereen and Carterso the good news is with that many picks you are bound to hit on one or 2 studs...problem is that the bust rate is high so you will likely be left with one or 2 duds as well.

I think you are much better off than you were before you made the picks. Current value (my guess):Ingram: 1.05-1.06Vereen: 1.12-2.2Carter: 2.06-2.08Murray: 1.2-1.05Newton: 1.01 +If we are going to use startup value, Newton alone is worth the picks you spent.

The funny thing is I never would have made the Cam pick unless I had the other ones as well...usually dont go QB in 1st rd but since I already had the RBs and didnt like the WRs on ther board I just rolled the dice with it....so I think that is another benefit of having multiple picks in the 1st

 

[mjr]

I would much rather mix up rookie picks and proven vets in trades for younger up and coming guys with a year or two in the league already. Putting everything into rookie picks is esentially putting all of your eggs in one basket. If it doesn't work, you're screwed for a long time, and, you have to start over with practically nothing to work with. Way too risky for me.

 

[Banemorth]

Ask me in a couple of years if it's a viable strategy.I gave up:Murray, DeMarco DAL RBMcCoy, LeSean PHI RBFlynn, Matt GBP QBBritt, Kenny TEN WRYear 2012 Round 2 Draft PickI got:Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.01Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.02Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.04Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.08Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick 1.15Locker, Jake TEN QBWatt, J.J. HOU DE;Year 2013 Round 1 Draft PickYear 2013 Round 1 Draft PickYear 2013 Round 1 Draft PickYear 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick

What did you have on your team to begin with?! Flynn, McCoy, Murray and Britt are already a VERY good, young basis for a team. Not sure I would have done this.In my case, I traded for all of those future firsts, but I still have Rodgers, Rice, Calvin, Nicks, V Jax, D Thomas, Finley and Vernon Davis to fall back on.

This was just a start up draft. My team is pretty bare bones right now. It's a $15 a year league so I figured what the hell let's try something different.

 

[Concept Coop]

The funny thing is I never would have made the Cam pick unless I had the other ones as well...usually dont go QB in 1st rd but since I already had the RBs and didnt like the WRs on ther board I just rolled the dice with it....so I think that is another benefit of having multiple picks in the 1st

I agree. There are benefits and luxuries that a rebuilding team needs to take advantage of. Higher draft picks is the obvious one, but the ability to delay value (wait on prospects or trade for future picks), roster space, waiver wire order are a few others. Somebody did a study, comparing the actual value of draft picks (and I wish I could remember who posted the thread). When I saw it, I initially wrote it off. It essentially said that the 1.01 was worth 2 late firsts and a 2nd (something like that). At first glance, that looks like bad value for the person giving the 1.01. But, the study was of actual value (5 year look back), not trade value at the time. Meaning, if you have the roster space to burn, you are just as likely to retain value drafting 2x late first guys and a 2nd rounder. Sure, sometimes that 1.01 is AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, and Adrian Peterson. But, sometimes, one of the late round guys is LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, et cetera. I am implying the "shotgun" draft stategy for the first time this season. We'll see how it goes. When you can't afford to trade multiple first round picks for studs, you have to roll the dice.

 

[mlball77]

Hoarding rookie picks can be effective. It is not the ideal approach, imo, but it can be effective.

That said; it seems to me that often times those that hoard rookie picks find themselves constantly in rebuild mode; not climbing the ranks in any meaningful way in the league and always starting over. -I believe that in order for rookie pick hoarding to be effective as a strategy, it has to be limited to a season or two and the owner employing it really has to be patient about seeing a return on his investment (not always easy to do). A couple of cherry-picked examples: if you employ this strategy and drafted a guy like McFadden a few years ago, or more recently Spiller, you can't give up on them after a sub-par season or two. IMO, you have to ride it out and hope your investment pays off eventually.

 

[Crippler]

It is a fine way to rebuild. Having a team that is consistently just missing the playoffs or barely squeaking in and going out in round 1 is frustrating. But doing a total rebuild should net you a high pick. I have 8 picks in the top 32 of my draft(and was 12 at one point but dealt 2 away) but I own the 2, 3, 7, and 9 in round 1. The team I took over was like the above. They had huge holes so I went to get a stud through draft. So it is viable option for any team but not sure why he has Brees still. And he did not end up with a prime pick but that is probably because of Brees. Cheap way to get the Fortes, Rices, McCoys, Nicks etc of this world. This seems like an exciting draft to rebuild with. BTW: In PPR I think Julio Jones > Matt Forte and in 3 years you will be saying what a great trade.

I disagree. Unless your team is really, really bad, and you only have one or two good players who also happen to be getting older (28 +), then I think this is a mistake. If you are a borderline playoff team or a one game and out playoff team, that means you only need one player in most cases to be a true competitor for trophy. Often you can get that player in FA. Or, you could use your one first round rookie pick to fill that hole and if you draft well, you are good to go. Or, you could try to trade area of strength to fill the weakness, without giving up everything to get picks.I have seen teams that are constantly in rebuild mode. It's ugly.

I followed this and would have had about the 7th pick overall if I stayed put. WR league and the WR was Mike Wallace, Kevin Walter and EArly Doucet as 3 starters. Not much behind. 1.5 PPR for TE and the starter was Moeaki backed up by Kevin Boss. Had Vick at QB and RB(.5 PPR for RB) was good with Forte, Spiller, and Best but start 1 or 2. IDP was Dockett, Ty Jackson, Ware, Urlacher, Ryans, Hali with Berry and Quintin Mikell. So a not bad team but even trading away all picks could have brought in one WR but not 2 that was needed. Even drafted nicely with Baldwin and Young and Sheard/Clayborne but that was not enough either. So Vick, Forte, Spiller, Moaeki, Boss, Ware, Urlacher, Ryans and Mikell all went. Now left with Eli, Cutler, Flacco at QB, Best/Vereen at RB, Baldwin/Young/James Jones. Tate/Alexander at WR, Gresham/Rudolph at TE and V. Miller/Kerrigan/Hali/Spikes or a few others and Berry/Thomas with the draft still to go. Still not a winning team but the pieces are in place with a good draft. YOu have to look at the teams around you also and some were truly loaded and still are. Your never going to beat these guys with bringing in older guys. The previous owner looked like he tried this and was never enough.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

12 team dynasty, 1/2 ppr for WRs/TEs only, 4 year max contract, plus a rookie squad. One owner went all in on draft picks last year:

1.01 Ingram, Mark NOS RB ®

1.02 Green, A.J. CIN WR ®

1.03 Jones, Julio ATL WR ®

1.04 Williams, Ryan ARI RB ®

1.12 Little, Greg CLE WR ®

2.01 Murray, DeMarco DAL RB ®

2.06 Brown, Vincent SDC WR ®

2.07 Newton, Cam CAR QB ®

2.08 Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB ®

2.09 Hunter, Kendall SFO RB ®

2.10 Green, Alex GBP RB ®

He was in contention at midseason and made some moves to compete. He fell short and has this going forward:

E.Manning (1 yr)

Ingram (3), J.Rodgers (3), D.Brown (1)

AJ Green (3), J.Jones (3), Dem.Thomas (4), S.Rice (1), DHB (1)

Gronk (2)

R.Cobb on devy squad

Currently has picks 2, 4, 5, 12, 18.

I figure he gets 2 RBs and a WR with 2, 4, and 5.

Interesting to watch.

 

[floods]

Saw a guy in one league turn this 2010 draft roster:

Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

Manning, Eli NYG QB

Hardesty, Montario CLE RB ®

Best, Jahvid DET RB ®

Johnson, Andre HOU WR

Boldin, Anquan BAL WR

Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR

Owens, Terrell CIN WR

Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR

Tate, Golden SEA WR ®

Carlson, John SEA TE

Into this, through trades and moving players for 2011 rookie draft picks:

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Forte, Matt CHI RB

Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB

Green, A.J. CIN WR

Jones, Julio ATL WR

Jackson, DeSean PHI WR

Boldin, Anquan BAL WR

Gates, Antonio SDC TE

Only caveat is that he has no depth behind Lynch, but he's done an impressive job of rebuilding into a competitive team very quickly.

 

[beer 30]

Cleveland does it every year

 

[DexterDew]

as someone who participated in a couple of start ups in 2011, i turned some of my late first round rookie picks right after the 2011 rookie draft into 2012 1st rounders. With some wheeling and dealing, i have 3 and 4 2012 1st round picks.

the reason why i decided to "hoard" is that I want to have options during the 2012 rookie draft (pick, trade for vet, trade down or trade out). When you have no 1st or 2nd rounders, you are simply on the outside looking in.

Rookie picks are simply currency whose value increases up until someone uses the pick. You have to be prepared to use the pick for the player with the most value going forward (BPA).

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Once again, it depends on what your playing for... I did this in my main dynasty....and it is a blast. I honestly feel like everyone should have at least 1 dynasty where they are rebuilding or doing something like this. Its the most enjoyable part of the process. Once you have your dominant team, no thought is needed, you just plug in guys to your line up and maybe get a few waiver wire guys per year.

Trading, rookie drafts and figuring out how people value guys is 80% of the fun for me. obviously you dont want to be a perpetual loser, but if you handle the rookie picks the right way your all set.

I think pick hoarding and dominating the draft has a lot of potential positives also.

On draft day everyone wants to pick... everyone. If people are stuck without picks some will blatantly overstep the value threshold to get 'their guy'.

once the draft is over and you have your guys.... its kinda like everything else... find a good place to sell high on most and keep the few that you want.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I did this when I took over a team in a dynasty two years ago. I immediately dealt pretty much anyone of significance on the roster (save Matt Stafford and newly drafted Dez Bryant) for a future 1st round draft pick.

Last years draft came around and I ended up with the 1.01 (my own pick), 1.02, 1.07, 1.09, 1.11 and 1.12. During the draft I dealt the 1.07, 1.09, 1.11 and 1.12 for the 1.03

I took...

1.01 AJ Green

1.02 Mark Ingram

1.03 Julio Jones

Add those to Matt Stafford, Dez Bryant and previous years 3rd rounder Rob Gronkowski and I took a team that was in the cellar to the playoffs in 2 years and established a core that will keep me competitive for a while.

The thing people forget to realize is that you don't have to make the picks yourself. I happened to like all 3 of those guys so I made the picks, but you could just as easily ship them off for more established pieces. I mean look at what this years 1.1 is pulling in trade.

 

[KellysHeroes]

My 16 teamer / 46 man (PPR & IDP) league started up in 2008. In the 1st 3 yrs I made the playoffs 2 times and just missed the other time; also during the 2009 & 2010 seasons I only made 1 draft pick(Sanchez).

I drafted an older team in the start up and always sold my future picks for proven players

My Initial team http://football16.myfantasyleague.com/2008/options?L=62726&O=17&DISPLAY=LEAGUE&POSITION=*&FRANCHISE=0001

Even though I had success in the regular season I lost in the 1st round of the playoffs and knew that time was running out for the team, so last yr I whole selled the team for a bunch of picks for 2011 / 2012 / 2013. I documented just about every trade I made in the AC forum last yr, and at the time no one liked what I was doing.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=592631&st=0&p=13898439&fromsearch=1entry13898439

I ended 2010 with no 1st rounder for 2011 but ended up with AJ Green / Dan Thomas / Vereen & Ridley / Cruz and a bunch of others

Ending Roster in 2010

McCoy, Colt CLE QB ® 94.580 8 4.03

Rivers, Philip SDC QB 412.190 10 FA

Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB (P) 273.650 7 FA

Ball, Lance DEN RB 25.700 9 FA

Choice, Tashard DAL RB 71.500 4 FA

Jones, Julius NOS RB 46.000 10 FA

McFadden, Darren OAK RB (P) 344.360 10 FA

Peterson, Adrian MIN RB (P) 357.400 4 FA

Barber, Marion DAL RB 93.500 4 FA

Moore, Mewelde PIT RB 56.000 5 FA

Amendola, Danny STL WR 192.500 9 FA

Breaston, Steve ARI WR 146.155 6 FA

Edelman, Julian NEP WR 16.000 5 FA

Hagan, Derek NYG WR 52.300 8 FA

Hester, Devin CHI WR 133.300 8 FA

Hill, Jason JAC WR 35.000 9 FA

Welker, Wes NEP WR 236.675 5 FA

Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR (I) 11.700 7 FA

Smith, Steve NYG WR (I) 132.000 8 FA

Beckum, Travis NYG TE 44.600 8 FA

Miller, Zach OAK TE (P) 175.280 10 FA

Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN TE 123.180 4 FA

Shockey, Jeremy NOS TE 110.920 10 FA

Mariani, Marc TEN KR ® 280.700 9 FA

McCann, Bryan DAL KR ® 95.850 4 FA

Prater, Matt DEN PK (I) 106.800 9 FA

Rayner, Dave DET PK 68.700 7 FA

Anderson, Mark HOU DE 75.200 7 FA

Idonije, Israel CHI DE 161.200 8 FA

Jackson, Lawrence DET DE (P) 103.400 7 FA

Vickerson, Kevin DEN DE 100.700 9 FA

Bishop, Desmond GBP LB 241.200 10 FA

Briggs, Lance CHI LB 212.050 8 FA

Brooking, Keith DAL LB 196.850 4 FA

Clark, Danny NOS LB 108.000 10 FA

Orakpo, Brian WAS LB (P) 141.300 9 FA

Peterson, Julian DET LB 168.400 7 FA

Grimes, Brent ATL CB 239.700 8 FA

Lacey, Jacob IND CB 114.700 7 FA

Thomas, Terrell NYG CB 261.700 8 FA

Branch, Tyvon OAK S 245.150 10 FA

Doughty, Reed WAS S (P) 167.800 9 FA

Ward, T.J. CLE S ® 272.950 8 FA

39 Total Players

Injured Reserve

Kampman, Aaron JAC DE (I) 69.100 9 FA

3 Total Players

Taxi Squad

Barber, Marion DAL RB 93.500 4 FA

Moore, Mewelde PIT RB 56.000 5 FA

Hughes, Jerry IND DE ® 6.000 7 FA

Stroud, Marcus BUF DE 103.200 6 FA

Durant, Justin JAC LB 124.000 9 FA

Kindle, Sergio BAL LB ® (O) - 8 4.08

Current Roster

Kolb, Kevin ARI QB - 6 FA

McCoy, Colt CLE QB - 5 FA

Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB - 8 FA

Tebow, Tim NYJ QB - 8 FA

Bell, Kahlil CHI RB - 8 FA

Bush, Michael CHI RB - 8 FA

Mathews, Ryan SDC RB - 6 FA

Ridley, Stevan NEP RB - 7 FA

Thomas, Daniel MIA RB - 5 FA

Vereen, Shane NEP RB - 7 FA

Baldwin, Doug SEA WR - 6 FA

Caldwell, Andre DEN WR - 6 FA

Cotchery, Jerricho PIT WR - 11 FA

Cruz, Victor NYG WR - 7 FA

Gaffney, Jabar WAS WR - 5 FA

Green, A.J. CIN WR - 7 FA

Williams, Damian TEN WR - 6 FA

Housler, Robert ARI TE - 6 FA

Miller, Zach SEA TE - 6 FA

Moore, Evan CLE TE - 5 FA

Edelman, Julian NEP KR - 7 FA

Mariani, Marc TEN KR - 6 FA

Gould, Robbie CHI PK - 8 FA

Prater, Matt DEN PK - 6 FA

Johnson, Michael CIN DE - 7 FA

Jordan, Cameron NOS DE - 11 FA

Sheard, Jabaal CLE DE - 5 FA

Watt, J.J. HOU DE - 11 FA

Bowman, Navorro SFO LB - 7 FA

Kiwanuka, Mathias NYG LB - 7 FA

Mouton, Jonas SDC LB (P) - 6 FA

Orakpo, Brian WAS LB (P) - 5 FA

Sheppard, Kelvin BUF LB - 7 FA

Wright, K.J. SEA LB - 6 FA

Porter, Tracy DEN CB - 6 FA

Jenkins, Malcolm NOS S - 11 FA

Wilson, George BUF S - 7 FA

Current Picks for 2012

Year 2012 Draft Pick 1.02

Year 2012 Draft Pick 1.09

Year 2012 Draft Pick 1.10

Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.02

Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.04

Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.13

Year 2012 Draft Pick 3.07

Year 2012 Draft Pick 3.09

Year 2012 Draft Pick 3.10

Year 2012 Draft Pick 3.13

Year 2012 Draft Pick 4.10

Year 2012 Draft Pick 5.07

Year 2012 Draft Pick 5.09

Year 2012 Draft Pick 5.14

Extra 2013 1st / 3rd / 4th