rookie rankings (1 Viewer)

[Burning Sensation]

My rookie rankings have changed quite a bit since the NFL draft. Here is how i currently see the top two rounds shaping out. I will include how i feel their value has changed since the NFL draft with a (=,+,-) next to their name.

1. Darren Mcfadden(+) Clearly the #1 rookie RB at this point. Seems to be doing pretty well with his skinny legs. Runing hard between the tackles, getting the tough yardage. Has impressed with his pass protection as well. I would like to see more out of him in the passing game, but i think that will come. Has looked better than Bush and Fargas, and should get the majority of RB touches in Oakland this year. 1000 yards on the ground, 40 catches and 8 TD's seems like his floor, with much higher upside.

2. Jonathan Stewart(-) Havnt seen enough of him to really judge, but his toe is starting to concern me a bit. He is easily the #2 RB though. Looks like more of an RBBC than i originally thought.

3. Rashard Mendenhall(-) Some not so positive offseason news started to concern me a little. However, watching him play against the Bills in week two of the preseason has me even more skeptical. He looked horribly slow and didnt seem to run with much porpose. Still my #3 RB, but the gap has closed considerably.

4. Chris Johnson(+) I knew the guy was fast, but holy cow, i have never seen a RB hit a hole so fast. May not be a 300 carry back, but he could hit 300 touches. I think he will be what we all thought Reggie Bush was going to be. I would have a hard time not taking him over RM at #3.

5. Ray Rice(+) I cant find a fault in his game with the exception of possibly his size. I think the Ravens knew something about Mcgahee we didnt when they drafted Rice. I think Rice will have FF value sooner than most of us thought. It wouldnt be crazy for somebody taking him over Mendenhall or CJohnson at the #3 spot.

6. Kevin Smith(=) He has fell from my #4 to #6, not because anything he did, just how well Johnson and Rice have done. Smith has already taken the job from Bell, not that we didnt see that coming. I liked Smiths talent coming out of college, he may never be a top 5 back, but he could certainly be a top 15 RB, and fantasy #2. Kind of reminds me alot of Corey Dillon, who also happened to put up top numbers on a bad team.

7. Felix Jones(=) Has looked good in preseason, problem is he will be 2nd fiddle to Barber for the forseeable future.

8. Matt Forte(-) Not dropping him so much because of his talent, but the situation in Chicago. Worst O-line in the league, no viablbe WR's and Orton as the starting QB. Not sure Barry Sanders on LT could do much in that situation.

9. Steve Slaton(+) Put on 10 lbs, and is up to 207. Has still looked quick in the preseason, even if it was against 3rd stringers. I cant see anyway he is not the starter in Houston by week 3. If Dominick Davis could put up good numbers in Houston, i see no reason Slaton cant.

10. Matt Ryan(=) My favorite QB to come out of college since Eli. Looked good in preseason, and should start the season as the #1 QB. I dont think Atlanta will be as bad as most think, especially on offense, still might take Ryan a year or two to be a startable option in fantasy leagues.

11. James Hardy(=) Has been inconsistent in the preseason, but definetly has the talent to be a top 20 WR. Doesnt hurt the Trent Edwards has looked good in the preseason.

12. Eddie Royal(+) Not sure anybodys stock has risen as much as Royals. Looks to have the #2 spot in Denver locked up, and thats should be a great situation with one of the best young QB's throwing to him, and Marshall on the other side. Has even more value if your league awards points for return yardage.

13. Devin Thomas(=)

14. Dustin Keller(+)

15. Joe Flacco(=)

16. Limas Sweed(=)

17. Donnie Avery(-)

18. Desean Jackson(+)

19. Tim Hightower(+)

20. Jerod Mayo(+)

21. Earl Bennett(=)

22. Josh Morgan(+)

23. Jerome Simpson(=)

24. Jamal Charles(-)

 

[EBF]

I don't usually advocate drastically altering your rankings on such a small sample size, but I think you certainly have to give some credit to the preseason darlings like Chris Johnson, Eddie Royal, and Josh Morgan. My rankings would probably look something like this by position:

RB

1. Rashard Mendenhall - Situation and size are main positives. Athletic ability is a concern.

2. Jonathan Stewart - Losing ground to Williams. Still a good long term prospect and a future NFL starter.

3. Darren McFadden - Looks about how I thought he would. Good speed. Skinny frame. Don't like him at his cost.

4. Ray Rice - By a nose over Felix Jones. The most fluid power runner in this class. I like his chances. Buy buy buy.

5. Felix Jones - Neck-and-neck with Ray. Looks good so far. Will make plays. Can he become more than a third down back?

6. Chris Johnson - Dynamic speed and burst. Looks acutely undersized out there. More sizzle than steak.

7. Matt Forte - Struggling in the preseason. Borderline physical talent. Supporting cast is horrible. Don't like him at his cost.

8. Kevin Smith - Never been a big fan. Haven't seen anything to change my mind.

9. Tashard Choice - Decent long term prospect. Buried on the depth chart.

10. Ryan Torain - Was doing well before his injury. Might get another shot.

11. Tim Hightower - Longshot, but has featured back size and a good opportunity.

12. Steve Slaton - Smallish with limited moves. I doubt he'll succeed long term.

13. Jamaal Charles - Change of pace back.

In terms of cost vs. upside, Ray Rice is probably the guy I like the most. He doesn't cost nearly as much as Mendenhall and Stewart, but he offers a similar risk/reward proposition. Smith, Forte, Charles, and Slaton are the most overrated rookie RBs IMO. Mendenhall needs to show more. He has plenty of time to turn it around. You can't get too hung up on preseason results. At this time last year Lynch looked horrible.

WR

1. Malcolm Kelly - Was doing well in camp before his knees flared up. Will it be a chronic problem?

2. Devin Thomas - Too early to get a read on this raw talent. Check back in 3 years.

3. Eddie Royal - Rising. The next Laveranues Coles? Quite possible.

4. James Hardy - Early opportunity and red zone potential bump him up my board a bit.

5. Jordy Nelson - Quiet preseason, but I believe in Ted Thompson.

6. DeSean Jackson - Playmaker. Probably too small to be consistently productive. The WR equivalent of Chris Johnson.

7. Josh Morgan - Shades of B-Marshall. Tempted to rank him higher, but it's still early.

8. Donnie Avery - Haven't heard a peep about him. Love his speed. Not sure if he's physical enough for the pro game.

9. Earl Bennett - Never been a huge fan. He's a solid prospect though. Has a chance to produce immediately.

10. Limas Sweed - Not doing much so far. May lack toughness.

11. Andre Caldwell - Like his long term potential. Inability to capitalize on early opportunity is a concern.

12. Adrian Arrington - Was having a strong camp before injuries slowed him down. Promising sleeper.

13. Will Franklin - Could be starting in 2009.

14. Lavelle Hawkins - Might be the most talented WR on the roster. Then again, it's the Titans.

15. Keenan Burton - Buzz has seemingly faded lately. Still a tough kid with some skills.

16. Mario Manningam - I don't have much faith in his talent or his personality.

17. Jerome Simpson - Not a believer in this kid.

18. Early Doucet - I see him as an Antwaan Randle El/Arnaz Battle type. Solid player, but no upside.

19. Harry Douglas - Explosive, but also undersized. Worth keeping an eye on.

20. Marcus Smith - Project. Unlikely to contribute in 2008. Has some long term potential.

Ranking WRs this early in their careers is an exercise in futility, so these rankings are definitely flexible. The obvious risers are Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, and Josh Morgan. Royal and Morgan have surprised a lot of folks with their early surges up the depth chart. Jackson looks like what we've always thought he was: a great player trapped in a tiny body.

TE

1. Dustin Keller

The only rookie TE I'd bother with right now. Martin Rucker has made some waves and Kellen Davis could be a long term sleeper. Fred Davis and Martellus Bennett are buried with no hope in sight. Never been a fan of Carlson as an FF prospect.

 

[Bri]

It seems like people were to quick to brush off Parker and Williams and promote the rooks. I actually have Chris Johnson as my 2nd right now. I'm finding it hard to fight off the "don't make too much out of preseason" thoughts with him. He too will be sharing the rock but when he's not running, he could be lined up wide so I think that extra opportunity bumps him up over the other 2.

I need to see Smith and Forte more. I've gone from excited to thinking they're a shade above ordinary. Hopefully I'll catch them this week. For whatever reason, (opportunity?)it feels like they're begging to be bumped up the rankings.

I don't like the odds for #2 WRs to excel as rookies but like your thoughts/rankings with dynasty in mind.

Doucet is curiously absent even though all this Boldin trade talk/rumors are circulating. Also, Boldin and/or Fitz miss time every year. I think he deserves a spot.

Why is Mayo on your list and no other IDP?

Where would you put Adrian Arrington or Steve Johnson or Mario Manningham?

 

[Burning Sensation]

It seems like people were to quick to brush off Parker and Williams and promote the rooks. I actually have Chris Johnson as my 2nd right now. I'm finding it hard to fight off the "don't make too much out of preseason" thoughts with him. He too will be sharing the rock but when he's not running, he could be lined up wide so I think that extra opportunity bumps him up over the other 2.I need to see Smith and Forte more. I've gone from excited to thinking they're a shade above ordinary. Hopefully I'll catch them this week. For whatever reason, (opportunity?)it feels like they're begging to be bumped up the rankings.I don't like the odds for #2 WRs to excel as rookies but like your thoughts/rankings with dynasty in mind.Doucet is curiously absent even though all this Boldin trade talk/rumors are circulating. Also, Boldin and/or Fitz miss time every year. I think he deserves a spot.Why is Mayo on your list and no other IDP?Where would you put Adrian Arrington or Steve Johnson or Mario Manningham?

Mayo is the only IDP i would take in the first 2 rounds. However, there is a few other LB's i would put in the first half of the 3rd round. I think most peopel dropped Mayo in their IDP rankings because he went to the Pats and their 3-4 defense. I think he was the best ILB to come out of the draft, and even though its just the preseason, he has looked fantastic.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I don't usually advocate drastically altering your rankings on such a small sample size, but I think you certainly have to give some credit to the preseason darlings like Chris Johnson, Eddie Royal, and Josh Morgan. My rankings would probably look something like this by position:

RB

1. Rashard Mendenhall - Situation and size are main positives. Athletic ability is a concern.

2. Jonathan Stewart - Losing ground to Williams. Still a good long term prospect and a future NFL starter.

3. Darren McFadden - Looks about how I thought he would. Good speed. Skinny frame. Don't like him at his cost.

4. Ray Rice - By a nose over Felix Jones. The most fluid power runner in this class. I like his chances. Buy buy buy.

5. Felix Jones - Neck-and-neck with Ray. Looks good so far. Will make plays. Can he become more than a third down back?

6. Chris Johnson - Dynamic speed and burst. Looks acutely undersized out there. More sizzle than steak.

7. Matt Forte - Struggling in the preseason. Borderline physical talent. Supporting cast is horrible. Don't like him at his cost.

8. Kevin Smith - Never been a big fan. Haven't seen anything to change my mind.

9. Tashard Choice - Decent long term prospect. Buried on the depth chart.

10. Ryan Torain - Was doing well before his injury. Might get another shot.

11. Tim Hightower - Longshot, but has featured back size and a good opportunity.

12. Steve Slaton - Smallish with limited moves. I doubt he'll succeed long term.

13. Jamaal Charles - Change of pace back.

In terms of cost vs. upside, Ray Rice is probably the guy I like the most. He doesn't cost nearly as much as Mendenhall and Stewart, but he offers a similar risk/reward proposition. Smith, Forte, Charles, and Slaton are the most overrated rookie RBs IMO. Mendenhall needs to show more. He has plenty of time to turn it around. You can't get too hung up on preseason results. At this time last year Lynch looked horrible.

WR

1. Malcolm Kelly - Was doing well in camp before his knees flared up. Will it be a chronic problem?

2. Devin Thomas - Too early to get a read on this raw talent. Check back in 3 years.

3. Eddie Royal - Rising. The next Laveranues Coles? Quite possible.

4. James Hardy - Early opportunity and red zone potential bump him up my board a bit.

5. Jordy Nelson - Quiet preseason, but I believe in Ted Thompson.

6. DeSean Jackson - Playmaker. Probably too small to be consistently productive. The WR equivalent of Chris Johnson.

7. Josh Morgan - Shades of B-Marshall. Tempted to rank him higher, but it's still early.

8. Donnie Avery - Haven't heard a peep about him. Love his speed. Not sure if he's physical enough for the pro game.

9. Earl Bennett - Never been a huge fan. He's a solid prospect though. Has a chance to produce immediately.

10. Limas Sweed - Not doing much so far. May lack toughness.

11. Andre Caldwell - Like his long term potential. Inability to capitalize on early opportunity is a concern.

12. Adrian Arrington - Was having a strong camp before injuries slowed him down. Promising sleeper.

13. Will Franklin - Could be starting in 2009.

14. Lavelle Hawkins - Might be the most talented WR on the roster. Then again, it's the Titans.

15. Keenan Burton - Buzz has seemingly faded lately. Still a tough kid with some skills.

16. Mario Manningam - I don't have much faith in his talent or his personality.

17. Jerome Simpson - Not a believer in this kid.

18. Early Doucet - I see him as an Antwaan Randle El/Arnaz Battle type. Solid player, but no upside.

19. Harry Douglas - Explosive, but also undersized. Worth keeping an eye on.

20. Marcus Smith - Project. Unlikely to contribute in 2008. Has some long term potential.

Ranking WRs this early in their careers is an exercise in futility, so these rankings are definitely flexible. The obvious risers are Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, and Josh Morgan. Royal and Morgan have surprised a lot of folks with their early surges up the depth chart. Jackson looks like what we've always thought he was: a great player trapped in a tiny body.

TE

1. Dustin Keller

The only rookie TE I'd bother with right now. Martin Rucker has made some waves and Kellen Davis could be a long term sleeper. Fred Davis and Martellus Bennett are buried with no hope in sight. Never been a fan of Carlson as an FF prospect.

I would be interested in seeing your overall rankings. I do for the most part agree with not adjusting my rankings to much based of training camp/preseason, but i think alot of what i have seen so far is hard to ignore.

Also, you refered to Lynch, and how he didnt look good in the preseason last year. I would say his numbers looked worse than he actually did. As a Bills homer, i watched all of his preseason carries, and thought he looked pretty good, he just didnt get much help from the offense. I cant say i feel the same about Mendenhall, at least to this point. For the record, i was/am a fan of RM coming out of college, he has just dissapointed me thus far.