Royster and Ridley (1 Viewer)

[ShaHBucks]

I'm trying my hand for the first time at doing projections. One of the hardest aspects of rankings is having to react to the news consistently. A paragraph on rotoworld trumps a week of homework all to often. In the case of Ridley and Royster their news is outstanding but we all agree that the better RB is low man on the dept chart in Vereen and Helu. I don't know how the hell to project these situation but I don't want to count on the least talented player to win me a championship, especially given how great I think Helu and Vereen can be in their giving offenses. 

I'd add L. Blount(2011 Reggie Bush) and P. Thomas. I know there's plenty of threads on these names, I'm just trying to bring it all together. How are you handicapping these situations?

 

[Bayhawks]

I'm trying my hand for the first time at doing projections. One of the hardest aspects of rankings is having to react to the news consistently. A paragraph on rotoworld trumps a week of homework all to often. In the case of Ridley and Royster their news is outstanding but we all agree that the better RB is low man on the dept chart in Vereen and Helu. I don't know how the hell to project these situation but I don't want to count on the least talented player to win me a championship, especially given how great I think Helu and Vereen can be in their giving offenses. I'd add L. Blount(2011 Reggie Bush) and P. Thomas. I know there's plenty of threads on these names, I'm just trying to bring it all together. How are you handicapping these situations?

I'm not sure I really understand what you're asking.Ridley and Royster are listed as "starters" right now. Are you asking if others expect that to stay the same? With their coaches (especially the last few years), that's hard to predict. IMO, you have to make your best guess. I personally think while Vereen and Helu might be "more talented," Ridley and Royster fit the role their teams want them to play better. Ridley fits more into the 1st/2nd down "bruiser" like BJGE role than Vereen, so he should get about 200 carries (if he can avoid fumbles), while Royster seems to be a good fit for the 1-cut, zone blocking scheme than Helu.

 

[cobalt_27]

There is no handicapping these situations. If you think you know what's going to happen, you're lying to yourself.

We're dealing less with Helu, Vereen, Ridley, et al., here. This is all about Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan.

Bottom line, don't reach. If any of the 4 main guys falls in your lap, take him.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I'm trying my hand for the first time at doing projections. One of the hardest aspects of rankings is having to react to the news consistently. A paragraph on rotoworld trumps a week of homework all to often. In the case of Ridley and Royster their news is outstanding but we all agree that the better RB is low man on the dept chart in Vereen and Helu. I don't know how the hell to project these situation but I don't want to count on the least talented player to win me a championship, especially given how great I think Helu and Vereen can be in their giving offenses. I'd add L. Blount(2011 Reggie Bush) and P. Thomas. I know there's plenty of threads on these names, I'm just trying to bring it all together. How are you handicapping these situations?

I'm not sure I really understand what you're asking.Ridley and Royster are listed as "starters" right now. Are you asking if others expect that to stay the same? With their coaches (especially the last few years), that's hard to predict. IMO, you have to make your best guess. I personally think while Vereen and Helu might be "more talented," Ridley and Royster fit the role their teams want them to play better. Ridley fits more into the 1st/2nd down "bruiser" like BJGE role than Vereen, so he should get about 200 carries (if he can avoid fumbles), while Royster seems to be a good fit for the 1-cut, zone blocking scheme than Helu.

I'm seeing situations like Jamal Charles in 2010 or Reggie Bush 2011 where the backup is more talented than who the media/beat writers proclaim are the favorites to start. I don't think much of guys like Ridley, Royster or BJGE but I'd be excited about Vereen, Helu or Bernard Scott and don't mind holding them for half a season betting on talent. I guess my question is are you drafting the "starting rb" in situations like these or waiting for the more talented RB's later in the draft? Did a mock where I didn't get a rb until Reggie Bush, Donald Brown and Peyton Hillis but I filled the bench with players like Blount, Vereen ect... Figured why wait until the cat is out the bag that these backups are better than the "starter?" might be too late then.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Perfect example with Ridley and Vereen. Everyone assumes Ridley will be the power back, I went and compared their bench reps at the combine and it wasn't even close, Vereen pumped out 13 more reps than Ridley and is faster. Or how bad BjGE looked to me last year vr the game B. Scott started for Benson, I was impressed with Scott even though it won't show in the stats. So do you drop a guy like Ridley down your rankings because he more likely to lose his job than say Ray Rice? Sort of how we knock McFadden for getting hurt a lot.

 

[FF Ninja]

Perfect example with Ridley and Vereen. Everyone assumes Ridley will be the power back, I went and compared their bench reps at the combine and it wasn't even close, Vereen pumped out 13 more reps than Ridley and is faster. Or how bad BjGE looked to me last year vr the game B. Scott started for Benson, I was impressed with Scott even though it won't show in the stats. So do you drop a guy like Ridley down your rankings because he more likely to lose his job than say Ray Rice? Sort of how we knock McFadden for getting hurt a lot.

I don't think anyone cares about bench press. You should be more concerned with which one squats more. But the real bottom line is which one can push a pile.

 

[Two Deep]

Perfect example with Ridley and Vereen. Everyone assumes Ridley will be the power back, I went and compared their bench reps at the combine and it wasn't even close, Vereen pumped out 13 more reps than Ridley and is faster. Or how bad BjGE looked to me last year vr the game B. Scott started for Benson, I was impressed with Scott even though it won't show in the stats. So do you drop a guy like Ridley down your rankings because he more likely to lose his job than say Ray Rice? Sort of how we knock McFadden for getting hurt a lot.

I don't think anyone cares about bench press. You should be more concerned with which one squats more. But the real bottom line is which one can push a pile.

I agree, unless Vereen is running on his hands who gives a #### how much he benched.

 

[silentcoach]

Of course you should knock down players if you believe they will lose their starting gig. What's the point in renting a player for a few weeks when he won't be there in the end when you need him. *IF* you think they are not the superior talent then adjust accordingly and only take them where you have them ranked.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I'm trying my hand for the first time at doing projections. One of the hardest aspects of rankings is having to react to the news consistently. A paragraph on rotoworld trumps a week of homework all to often. In the case of Ridley and Royster their news is outstanding but we all agree that the better RB is low man on the dept chart in Vereen and Helu. I don't know how the hell to project these situation but I don't want to count on the least talented player to win me a championship, especially given how great I think Helu and Vereen can be in their giving offenses. 

I'd add L. Blount(2011 Reggie Bush) and P. Thomas. I know there's plenty of threads on these names, I'm just trying to bring it all together. How are you handicapping these situations?

I'm not sure I really understand what you're asking.Ridley and Royster are listed as "starters" right now. Are you asking if others expect that to stay the same? With their coaches (especially the last few years), that's hard to predict. IMO, you have to make your best guess. I personally think while Vereen and Helu might be "more talented," Ridley and Royster fit the role their teams want them to play better. Ridley fits more into the 1st/2nd down "bruiser" like BJGE role than Vereen, so he should get about 200 carries (if he can avoid fumbles), while Royster seems to be a good fit for the 1-cut, zone blocking scheme than Helu.

I'm seeing situations like Jamal Charles in 2010 or Reggie Bush 2011 where the backup is more talented than who the media/beat writers proclaim are the favorites to start. I don't think much of guys like Ridley, Royster or BJGE but I'd be excited about Vereen, Helu or Bernard Scott and don't mind holding them for half a season betting on talent. I guess my question is are you drafting the "starting rb" in situations like these or waiting for the more talented RB's later in the draft? Did a mock where I didn't get a rb until Reggie Bush, Donald Brown and Peyton Hillis but I filled the bench with players like Blount, Vereen ect... Figured why wait until the cat is out the bag that these backups are better than the "starter?" might be too late then.

First of all, I think the answer that you're looking for is to go ahead and stash the guy that you like on your bench. IMO, your draft should reflect YOUR opinions, not the general publics. If you dont think Ridley or Royster will last, then dont draft him.Secondly, No - we dont all agree. I think you're making a mistake by even mentioning Ridley & BJGE in the same sentence. They arent alike. Ridley is explosive and has shown signs of being a good reciever. His receiving ability hasnt shown up in his regular season stats, but last preseason he showed himself to be very adept at catching the ball. Vereen has looked good in the couple of spots that he's been healthy enough to showcase his talent. All indications are that Ridley has the first crack at getting the primary ball handling duties. The guy averaged 5.1 yds/carry last year while BJGE averaged a paltry 3.7 yds/carry. If you watched NE play last year, there was an obvious difference in playmaking ability between Ridley & BJGE. I dont believe that their talent level is comparable. With all of that said, if Ridley struggles (which I believe his highly unlikely due to both his physical ability and the presence of a high scoring passing offense) then Vereen would likely be the primary beneficiary. But to expect it to happen seems like you are trying too hard to see something that isnt there.

After all of that, if you still believe that Ridley is a stiff and Vereen is a "stud in waiting", then you shouldnt be drafting Ridley. Pick up Vereen later on and laugh at everyone else. Even if you are proven to be wrong, at least you went with your gut.