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Rudi Johnson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bradshaw
- Start date
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
165 depends on if he breaks a big one.
I think Cincy gets 200+ on the ground, but not all by Rudi.
Rudi - 140
JJohnson - 35
KWatson - 40
215ish.
2 TDs for Rudi, maybe one for JJ or KW.
I think Cincy gets 200+ on the ground, but not all by Rudi.
Rudi - 140
JJohnson - 35
KWatson - 40
215ish.
2 TDs for Rudi, maybe one for JJ or KW.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I gotta admit, this topic caught my eye. I'll save you the complex analysis and give you the meat: 115.
Opposing Indy Rbs (OppRB) have averaged 1.03 YPC more when playing Indy relative to their season averages. OppRB have averaged 2.83 more carries per game when playing Indy relative to their season averages.
Rudi Johnson has averaged 3.82 YPC this year, so we might want to project him at 4.85 YPC this weekend. Rudi's getting 86% of Cin RB carries, so we might want to project him to get an additional 2.44 carries this weekend. He's currently averaging 21.23 carries per game, so that would put him at 23.67 carries this weekend, and therefore 114.73 yards this weekend.
So my initial guess at an over/under would be 115. That might sound low to you; it sounded low to me too. But before last weekend, only three RBs broke the 115 mark this year against the Colts: Mike Bell, Brian Westbrook and Travis Henry. Tiki Barber, Anthony Thomas, Travis Henry, Julius Jones and Fred Taylor all had 18+ carries but failed to hit 115 yards. Further, Rudi has only hit 115 only twice this season.
So while based on last week the numbers seem incredibly low, 115 seems like a pretty good estimate to me.
Opposing Indy Rbs (OppRB) have averaged 1.03 YPC more when playing Indy relative to their season averages. OppRB have averaged 2.83 more carries per game when playing Indy relative to their season averages.
Rudi Johnson has averaged 3.82 YPC this year, so we might want to project him at 4.85 YPC this weekend. Rudi's getting 86% of Cin RB carries, so we might want to project him to get an additional 2.44 carries this weekend. He's currently averaging 21.23 carries per game, so that would put him at 23.67 carries this weekend, and therefore 114.73 yards this weekend.
So my initial guess at an over/under would be 115. That might sound low to you; it sounded low to me too. But before last weekend, only three RBs broke the 115 mark this year against the Colts: Mike Bell, Brian Westbrook and Travis Henry. Tiki Barber, Anthony Thomas, Travis Henry, Julius Jones and Fred Taylor all had 18+ carries but failed to hit 115 yards. Further, Rudi has only hit 115 only twice this season.
So while based on last week the numbers seem incredibly low, 115 seems like a pretty good estimate to me.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Futility
Footballguy
Echoing Chase's thoughts, I think there is another reason for more grounded expecations. Consider how badly Indy was embarassed last week. The team has to be realizing that its run defense is much more of a problem than it thought. The coaching staff will be focusing on the run D all week in practice and this will be a "gut check" game for the players. Add a primetime game and an injury ravaged Bengals line into the mix and you might be looking at a defense that's likely to play over its head.
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Futility
Footballguy
Instead of using an average of a RB's actual YPC number over normal, could you figure it as an average percentage over normal? For example, instead of 1.03 YPC better, maybe RBs average 25% better YPC. What would Rudi's numbers look like using that formula? To me, it seems like that formula might better account for the proficiency of a team's running game. The thought process behind this is that LT probably has more to gain by facing a subpar defense than Reuben Droughns does.
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I'd prefer not to use % and I'm not sure if it's mathematically appropriate to do so. Either way, the best answer I could come up with is 4.67 YPC (21% over normal), which is actually a bit lower than before. Personally, I'd prefer to use the original way, for reasons that become clearer when you try and actually write out how you would do it using percentages.That being said, here's a fascinating, but true, note: Of the 34 RBs to carry the ball against the Colts this year, only one had a lower YPC average against Indy than they do on the season.
And it's Shaud Williams (2 yards on 2 carries this year; 0 yards on 1 carry against Indy. 
)
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
That's probably true; in this case though, Rudi's YPC average is very close to the league average, so it won't matter much.
SoFresh&SoClean
Footballguy
Don't expect the Bengals to veer from their gameplan and try to force more carries on Rudi just because th Indy run D is cheese. They feel confident being able to run whatever play they want against any defense, so expect them to throw the ball 30+ times like they normally do. Rudi will get his 20+ then whatever they need him to do at the end if they have a lead to protect.
I'd say...25 carries, 124 yds. 2 TDs
Only because I think they will win fairly easily, call it a hunch. But I've been wrong before.
I'd say...25 carries, 124 yds. 2 TDs
Only because I think they will win fairly easily, call it a hunch. But I've been wrong before.
Kyzersosik
Footballguy
Load up on Cinn WR`s this week. Rudi 23 carries for 110 yds and 1 or 2 Td`s.
Mapmaker
Footballguy
Last season these teams put on a scorefest that was unbelievable ... looked more like an NBA game than an NFL match and I think we should expect the same thing again this week.
Manning and the Colts know their biggest weakness is the run D and the best way to counter that is for the offence to put big numbers on the board and take Cincy's run game out of the picture ...
Rudi - 23+3/132/2
Manning and the Colts know their biggest weakness is the run D and the best way to counter that is for the offence to put big numbers on the board and take Cincy's run game out of the picture ...
Rudi - 23+3/132/2
D-BO
Footballguy
H.K.
Footballguy
Manning has 2 TD passes in his past three games? All the Colts do is run. I wish I was playing against Peyton and not Eli.
jgb95
Footballguy
100 yards
The bengals coaching staff is so dumb they'll end up throwing the ball 40 times!
They do it every week.
I'm a RUDI owner and will start him this week but they do it to him week in and week out.
When he runs for 100 yards and 25 times they are nearly unbeatable!!!
I think it's Chad and his mouth that ruins the tempo of the run game.
The bengals coaching staff is so dumb they'll end up throwing the ball 40 times!
They do it every week.
I'm a RUDI owner and will start him this week but they do it to him week in and week out.
When he runs for 100 yards and 25 times they are nearly unbeatable!!!
I think it's Chad and his mouth that ruins the tempo of the run game.
Here are odd's on Bodog.com for Rudi's rushing total:
CIN vs IND) Monday, December 18th (8:35pm)
Total Rushing Yards in the game by Rudi Johnson
Player must play for action. Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime count towards wager.
0-50 at +300
51-75 at +250
76-100 at +200
101-125 at +190
126-150 at +230
151 or More at +220
CIN vs IND) Monday, December 18th (8:35pm)
Total Rushing Yards in the game by Rudi Johnson
Player must play for action. Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime count towards wager.
0-50 at +300
51-75 at +250
76-100 at +200
101-125 at +190
126-150 at +230
151 or More at +220
did you factor in that Rudi likes to have big games in Dec? If not what factor would you use?Rudi's December 2005 totals(4 games)510yards, 33% of his yrly total100 touches, 27.7% of his yrly total5TDs, 42% of his yrly total
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bonesman
Footballguy
relax dude... what happens on this message board does not effect what transpires on the field.... quite the opposite.but personally, i'm tempering expectations a little bit. Cincy will still probably throw on 1st down unless they are up in the 4th quarter
which they might not be. This is a "must win" game for both teams IMO... Indy needs to re-gain some moral/confidence, and Cincy needs to stay in the hunt... so i think both teams will be trying to light up the scoreboard. Let's just hope Chad and Housh get tackled within the 5 a lot.
