J-Rock
Footballguy
I read an article in ESPN Magazine (sorry no link, believe it or not it was an actual printed Magazine) the other day that got me thinking. It was basically an analysis of what to look for in a Fantasy Running Back. The question was posed, should you focus more on guys who get their points from yards or touchdowns?
I cant recall the exact numbers but what they did was take RB’s who averaged a minimum number of fantasy points per game (I think it was 8 but not 100% sure) and divide them into 2 groups, guys who scored the majority of their points from yards and the guys who scored the majority of their points off TD’s. Over the course of the next few games (4 I think) they monitored how often each player achieved their season average for fantasy points. As it turns out the yards guys achieved their average over 50% of the time while the TD guys averaged under 50%. The margin between the 2 was not huge but enough (at least in their opinion) to conclude that you are better off going with yards guys than TD guys.
They also pointed out that TD’s are by nature less reliable because of how they can be affected coaching decisions in that coaches can choose to throw in the red zone rather than run. They felt that yards were more reliable because a coach is less likely to abandon the run over the course of the game. In most leagues 1 TD is equal to 60 yards. Their argument is that 1 call at the goal line could prevent a guy from getting his 6 but running the ball consistently over the course of a game will provide plenty of opportunity to get 6 or more in yards.
I found it interesting and thought provoking. I have always tried to focus on guys who get in the end zone over guys who just get yards. Again were looking at guys with a minimum average of fantasy points per game. Guys on the TD side would be guys like Marion Barber III and Corey Dillon. Yards guys would be guys like Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn.
Thoughts?
I cant recall the exact numbers but what they did was take RB’s who averaged a minimum number of fantasy points per game (I think it was 8 but not 100% sure) and divide them into 2 groups, guys who scored the majority of their points from yards and the guys who scored the majority of their points off TD’s. Over the course of the next few games (4 I think) they monitored how often each player achieved their season average for fantasy points. As it turns out the yards guys achieved their average over 50% of the time while the TD guys averaged under 50%. The margin between the 2 was not huge but enough (at least in their opinion) to conclude that you are better off going with yards guys than TD guys.
They also pointed out that TD’s are by nature less reliable because of how they can be affected coaching decisions in that coaches can choose to throw in the red zone rather than run. They felt that yards were more reliable because a coach is less likely to abandon the run over the course of the game. In most leagues 1 TD is equal to 60 yards. Their argument is that 1 call at the goal line could prevent a guy from getting his 6 but running the ball consistently over the course of a game will provide plenty of opportunity to get 6 or more in yards.
I found it interesting and thought provoking. I have always tried to focus on guys who get in the end zone over guys who just get yards. Again were looking at guys with a minimum average of fantasy points per game. Guys on the TD side would be guys like Marion Barber III and Corey Dillon. Yards guys would be guys like Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn.
Thoughts?
Yards over TD's though. Unless it's a TD league of course, lol.
