Ryan Howard signs 5-year, $125 million deal (1 Viewer)

[Domination]

The fact that Tex is a switch-hitter and isn't susceptible to tough lefties getting him out easily is also a large plus in his favor. And while Howard's offensive numbers are slightly better, they are worlds apart defensively. Enough so that it pushes Tex ahead of him overall.

The fact that he doesnt get this is mind boggling. Howards weakness is lefties & defense. Tex's weakness is April

I think that its funny that you say the difference in offense numbers are close. I understand that he struggles against lefties, but look at the overall stats. He doesn't face a tough lefty every time he is up, and his avg is still only.08 below Tex. BTW saying that Tex's offensive numbers are close is like saying that Howard's .990 fielding % is close to Tex's .996. The numbers might no be too far apart, but there is a definite difference. The same should go for the offensive categories.

 

[shadyridr]

at using fielding % to quantify defense.

 

[Domination]

The calculations of RBI /AB was with RISP. It was stated that if you put a player who hits for better average (Ichiro or Mauer) or another power hitter (Arod, Fielder, AGon) tht they would produce the same numbers or better with RISP because of Howard's strike outs and struggles against lefties. All I did was compare each individual players AB and RBIs with RISP, and figured out who actually performs better.

Please explain how RBI/AB with RISP is a better indicator of this than BA w/RISP.

It was stated that a singles hitter(Mauer or Ichiro) could produce the same numbers as Howard, and that his ability to hit HRs wasn't as important as his KOs and avg. If Mauer hits a single with a man on 2nd, he might score. Whereas, if Howard hits a HR or extra base hit, he will score. Howard will KO in some of those situations, and therefore miss out on a potential score.To me RBI/AB is much more important than BA with RISP, because the objective when you are hitting is to drive the runners in. So, if Howard is doing this at a higher rate than other players he is achieving his objective. I would love for Howard to hit .300, with less strike outs, and be a better fielder. But I take him for what he is, and that is a prolific power hitter.

 

[shadyridr]

The calculations of RBI /AB was with RISP. It was stated that if you put a player who hits for better average (Ichiro or Mauer) or another power hitter (Arod, Fielder, AGon) tht they would produce the same numbers or better with RISP because of Howard's strike outs and struggles against lefties. All I did was compare each individual players AB and RBIs with RISP, and figured out who actually performs better.

Please explain how RBI/AB with RISP is a better indicator of this than BA w/RISP.

It was stated that a singles hitter(Mauer or Ichiro) could produce the same numbers as Howard, and that his ability to hit HRs wasn't as important as his KOs and avg. If Mauer hits a single with a man on 2nd, he might score. Whereas, if Howard hits a HR or extra base hit, he will score. Howard will KO in some of those situations, and therefore miss out on a potential score.To me RBI/AB is much more important than BA with RISP, because the objective when you are hitting is to drive the runners in. So, if Howard is doing this at a higher rate than other players he is achieving his objective. I would love for Howard to hit .300, with less strike outs, and be a better fielder. But I take him for what he is, and that is a prolific power hitter.

But if Howard has runners on 2nd & 3rd more than Mauer dont you see how your stat skews the #s toward Howard? BA w/RISP is a MUCH better indicator.

 

[Domination]

The calculations of RBI /AB was with RISP. It was stated that if you put a player who hits for better average (Ichiro or Mauer) or another power hitter (Arod, Fielder, AGon) tht they would produce the same numbers or better with RISP because of Howard's strike outs and struggles against lefties. All I did was compare each individual players AB and RBIs with RISP, and figured out who actually performs better.

Please explain how RBI/AB with RISP is a better indicator of this than BA w/RISP.

It was stated that a singles hitter(Mauer or Ichiro) could produce the same numbers as Howard, and that his ability to hit HRs wasn't as important as his KOs and avg. If Mauer hits a single with a man on 2nd, he might score. Whereas, if Howard hits a HR or extra base hit, he will score. Howard will KO in some of those situations, and therefore miss out on a potential score.To me RBI/AB is much more important than BA with RISP, because the objective when you are hitting is to drive the runners in. So, if Howard is doing this at a higher rate than other players he is achieving his objective. I would love for Howard to hit .300, with less strike outs, and be a better fielder. But I take him for what he is, and that is a prolific power hitter.

But if Howard has runners on 2nd & 3rd more than Mauer dont you see how your stat skews the #s toward Howard? BA w/RISP is a MUCH better indicator.

I understand that this could be the case, but without ALOT of research there is no way to know if this does benefit Howard, or if possibly Mauer has had more guys on base. I would never question the fact that Mauer is a better hitter, but Howard's power numbers are what makes him the player that the is. I had no intention of skewing any numbers, so if this is how you took it, I apologize. I was trying to find the best was to represent the fact that even with his flaws, Howard still produces at a elite level.BTW in case no one say it...Howard's contract has been in debate all over sports radio, tv, and chats. Today Jayson Stark debated Keith Law about it on Outside the Lines.

 

[Guest]

I understand that this could be the case, but without ALOT of research there is no way to know if this does benefit Howard, or if possibly Mauer has had more guys on base. I would never question the fact that Mauer is a better hitter, but Howard's power numbers are what makes him the player that the is. I had no intention of skewing any numbers, so if this is how you took it, I apologize. I was trying to find the best was to represent the fact that even with his flaws, Howard still produces at a elite level.BTW in case no one say it...Howard's contract has been in debate all over sports radio, tv, and chats. Today Jayson Stark debated Keith Law about it on Outside the Lines.

Your problem is in defining RBI's as a skill. It isn't. Hitting for AVG is a skill. Hitting for power is a skill. Running around the basepaths quickly is a skill. When you look at the metrics that consider skill and don't consider park or lineup, Howard isn't anywhere close to the 2nd best player in baseball. Paying him as such, and in years that only begin when he should start his decline, is a mistake.

 

[dparker713]

The calculations of RBI /AB was with RISP. It was stated that if you put a player who hits for better average (Ichiro or Mauer) or another power hitter (Arod, Fielder, AGon) tht they would produce the same numbers or better with RISP because of Howard's strike outs and struggles against lefties. All I did was compare each individual players AB and RBIs with RISP, and figured out who actually performs better.

Please explain how RBI/AB with RISP is a better indicator of this than BA w/RISP.

It was stated that a singles hitter(Mauer or Ichiro) could produce the same numbers as Howard, and that his ability to hit HRs wasn't as important as his KOs and avg. If Mauer hits a single with a man on 2nd, he might score. Whereas, if Howard hits a HR or extra base hit, he will score. Howard will KO in some of those situations, and therefore miss out on a potential score.To me RBI/AB is much more important than BA with RISP, because the objective when you are hitting is to drive the runners in. So, if Howard is doing this at a higher rate than other players he is achieving his objective. I would love for Howard to hit .300, with less strike outs, and be a better fielder. But I take him for what he is, and that is a prolific power hitter.

Mauer is not a singles hitter. He posted a .222 ISO last year. While not ideal when runners are in scoring position, a walk is still a desireable outcome, and your statistic ignores them entirely. What is the timeframe of the stats? The contention is that Howard's decline began last year and continues through is 0 for 4 2K 3LOB performance tonight, (Lets Go Mets!) so stats that include prior years don't refute that contention.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Niese had 2 career wins prior to today and his ERA was atrocious. What did Ryan Howard do? 0-4 with 2 Ks. Did I forget to mention that Niese is a lefty? It's just one game but..................

 

[Genedoc]

Good move by the Phillies.

Update?

 

[sporthenry]

Good move by the Phillies.

Update?

 

[Northern Voice]

A lot of people were writing Ortiz off on page 1 of this thread.

 

[dparker713]

I think if we're going apples to apples we need more discussion on Richie Sexson.

Sexson age 30-33 seasons:

156G 144OPS+

158G 117OPS+

121G 84OPS+

96G 87OPS+

Howard age 30-33 seasons:

143 G 127 OPS+

152 G 126 OPS+

71 G 90 OPS+

80G 110OPS+ (so far)

Math wins again! Math wins again!