So with most of the pro days wrapped up, and FA mostly in the books, I thought I'd throw out a 2 round mock draft.
1. Jac=Aidan Hutchinson DE Michigan, after tagging Cam Robinson and adding Brandon Scherff, I think they are less needy on the OL, or at least they believe that. Hutchinson is an EDGE prospect, better than Young or Nick Bosa in my opinion, probably equal to Garrett. He gives off a very strong Jared Allen vibe. Unreal quickness, his shuttle and 3 cone times would have been great times for a CB.
2. Det=Kayvon Thibodeaux DE Oregon, I'm 100% of the belief of the talk that his supposed "fall" is being done by teams hoping he falls to them. He probably has a slightly higher ceiling than Hutchinson, but is a little riskier as he wins entirely by athleticism right now, where Hutchinson also has excellent technique. I'm of the belief Dan Campbell is a "games are won in the trenches" HC, and will be very excited about this pick.
3. Hou=Evan Neal T Alabama, I don't think the Texans think they are as bad as the public does. I think they think they can be an 8-9 win team this season. Neal opposite Tunsil would help that a lot. Neal is a freakish talent who dropped 15 pounds at the combine, which will likely only make him freakier.
4. NYJ=Ikem Ekwonu T NC State, best run blocker in the draft, and a perfect fit opposite a hopefully healthy Mechi Becton. Jets could potentially play a little bit of bully ball next season, which is likely exactly what Zach Wilson needs.
5. NYG=Travon Walker DE Georgia, he didn't play as well as his combine suggests he should have, but his upside is as high as anyone's. Giants pass rush hasn't been particularly good since Coughlin left.
6. Car=Ahmad Gardner CB Cincinnati, here's our 1st major curveball. I think Rhule and co. are the #1 on the bubble staff in the NFL, and as such, I'm not seeing a rookie QB (particularly in a rawer class) being much help. I think this is Baker Mayfield's eventual landing spot, likely for a day 3 pick, possibly in 2023. As for Gardner, his one concern was his makeup speed, and his 4.41 40 puts that to rest. Adding Gardner to a CB room with Horn, Jackson, and hopefully Henderson, gives Carolina potentially one of the better groups in the league.
7. NYG=Garrett Wilson WR Ohio St, curveball #2. The new FO comes from a team that greatly prioritized having multiple quality options at WR. Wilson's most common comparison is Stefon Diggs, and he is unlike the other NY WRs. I don't think the new staff has any meaningful ties to old guard guys like Slayton or Shepard, and I think Golladay is possibly in a make or break year. I'd expect Wilson/Golladay outside, and Toney in the slot.
8. Atl=Malik Willis QB Liberty, my personal opinion of Willis is he's somewhere between Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. I think somebody takes the chance that its closer to Jackson. Willis has every tool imaginable, he just needs refinement, a lot of it. I think Arthur Smith is a good HC to make that happen, and Mariota isn't a bad guy to learn from.
9. Sea=Charles Cross T Mississippi St, the best pass blocker in the draft, he'll replace Duane Brown, as Seattle dives headfirst into rebuild mode. Cross is my pick as the best offensive prospect in this draft, but I don't think he's valued that way.
10. NYJ=Jermaine Johnson DE Florida St, this is higher than I'd go, but he's a guy I think the NFL likes more than I do. I think he's a very high-floor prospect. I do think Robert Saleh is a great fit for him as a HC though. He's not Nick Bosa, but he's a quality long-term starter.
11. Was=Derek Stingley CB LSU, don't often see CB mocked to Washington, and I don't see why not. William Jackson had a rough 1st season with the team, and Kendall Fuller is great, but is mostly just a slot guy. Stingley gives them a potentially great trio. If Stingley can stay healthy (which he hasn't in 2/3 years) he's a top-3 overall player in this class in my opinion. No CB in recent memory has his ceiling.
12. Min=Kyle Hamilton S Notre Dame, CB and DE were the 2 biggest needs going into FA, but they seem to have at least band-aided both spots, so I think BPA is reasonable for the Vikings. Hamilton was talked about as high as #2 overall before the combine, where his 4.59 was far slower than the 4.3 that was rumored. That said, Hamilton's tape shows a guy who plays a lot faster than that time, and pairing him with Harrison Smith, potentially gives the Vikings a top notch Safety combo.
13. Hou=Drake London WR USC, London has good size, and great physicality both at the catch point, and after the catch. He's a perfect fit opposite Cooks, and would be a big help in finding out if Mills is the guy, which I doubt he is, but London can then help the next guy. I think he's the best WR in the class, but I think Wilson will be higher on most teams boards.
14. Bal=Trevor Penning OL Northern Iowa, Penning is dominant run blocker, albeit in division 2, so he's got more questions than the top guys. I think in this scenario he's moving to Guard, but his size makes him a more appealing fit for the Ravens than a guy like Linderbaum would be. Also could double as a potential long term replacement for Stanley if he can't get healthy.
15. Phi=George Karlaftis DE Purdue, can play both inside and out, but ultimately I think he's the long term replacement for Brandon Graham. I think he's an underrated prospect, and personally prefer him to Johnson, and maybe even Walker.
16. NO=Jordan Davis DT Georgia, I'm not doing trades, and I'm also not sure NO is moving up for a QB, or if they actually just want 2 guys from this year's 1st round. Davis had maybe the best combine of any player in history, but isn't without flaws. He disappeared at times, was a part-time player, and was mostly a run stuffer only. On the flip side, his combine suggests the latter 2 issues were Georgia issues and not Davis issues.
17. LAC=Devin Lloyd LB Utah, with Penning and Davis gone, I think Lloyd makes the next most sense. The run defense last year was awful, and through 2 seasons Kenneth Murray has been very meh, and Tranquill is more of a coverage LB than anything else. Lloyd could instantly be their top guy, and in that division a do it all LB is going to be worth a ton.
18. Phi=Chris Olave WR Ohio St, I think his health pushes him ahead of Williams, Olave reminds me a lot of Calvin Ridley, and I think he makes for a nice fit with Smith/Goedert. If Reagor can contribute anything at all, this is a very nice young set of pass catchers. I don't think the Eagles are opposed to taking a WR in the 1st in 3 straight seasons.
19. NO=Jameson Williams WR Alabama, arguably the best WR in the class, but a torn ACL in the national title game, means he's a candidate for the PUP list. He's a perfect compliment to a hopefully healthy Michael Thomas going forward.
20. Pit=Kenny Pickett QB Pittsburgh, I'm not a huge fan of his, but I think the NFL likes him a lot more than I do. The Steelers can't seriously go with Trubisky. Pickett brings more to the table than he ever has. He's the most NFL ready QB, and also seemingly aced the interview process at the combine.
21. NE=Trent McDuffie CB Washington, great all around player, who can play man and zone, and while he isn't the athlete Stingley or Gardner are, he's arguably a more well rounded player. Seems like the Belichick type, and CB is a bigger need than its been in some time for NE.
22. GB=Treylon Burks WR Arkansas, I think he's been overrated throughout the process, but his combine likely pushes him closer to where he should be going. The Packers are desperate for WR help, currently their #1 is maybe Randall Cobb. Burks has good size and tackle breaking ability, but its questionable if his big play ability will translate. Still, could be a great fit with Rodgers.
23. Ari=Tyler Linderbaum OL Iowa, arguably the safest prospect in this class, its hard to imagine him not being a quality starter whether its at Center or Guard. He has excellent technique and routinely gets to the 2nd level as a run blocker. His addition likely helps Kyler Murray a ton.
24. Dal=Devonte Wyatt DT Georgia, overshadowed by Jordan Davis at the combine, Wyatt was not chopped liver by any means, and was the better player at Georgia. Dallas could use a lot of help on the interior.
25. Buf=Zion Johnson OL Boston College, he improved every year in college and could play Tackle if needed, though he's likely a high-end Guard. Buffalo could stand to improve the right side of their OL, and Johnson is a better player than either Cody Ford, or Spencer Brown.
26. Ten=Andrew Booth CB Clemson, Booth has flashes of excellence, but has been a bit inconsistent. I could see him eased in, but eventually becoming a high-end starter. He's scheme diverse, but probably better in man, which is not what Clemson usually ran.
27. TB=Nakobe Dean LB Georgia, BPA at its finest here. The Bucs are in good shape with David and White (though he's grossly overrated) starting. Dean gives them another highly athletic piece, as well as high-end depth for a Super Bowl contender.
28. GB=Kaiir Elam CB Florida, his 4.39 40 time at the combine pushes him into round 1 for me, as he was expected to be a 4.5 guy. Elam is very physical, and very experienced as a 3 year starter in the SEC. CB isn't a huge need, but Elam is a potentially difference making prospect, I don't think a guy like Rasul Douglas is getting in his way.
29. KC=Boye Mafe DE Minnesota, flying up boards after an outstanding Senior Bowl and combine. Too often KC's pass rush has been Chris Jones and...? Mafe fills a huge need, especially in what projects to be higher scoring division.
30. KC=Jahan Dotson WR Penn St, small at 5-11 178, but sudden and especially excels in the open field. JuJu signed a 1 year deal, and Hardman is in a contract year, I think its highly unlikely KC is done at WR, and Dotson could be the #1 in 2023. Dotson is skinnier, but there is Brandin Cooks to his game.
31. Cin=Kenyon Green G Texas A&M, with their additions in FA, I don't think the Bengals are locked into OL anymore, but this is such a great fit at LG. He's a better pass blocker than run blocker, but I don't think that is something the Bengals will complain about.
32. Det=Daxton Hill DB Michigan, Hill is an elite athlete who can play CB or Safety. Hill's size is fine for CB 6-0 191, and his speed would be elite for a S, 4.38 40, 6.57 3-cone. In Detroit, I think he's a better fit at Safety.
ROUND 2:
33. Jac=Bernhard Raimann T Central Michigan, Jawaan Taylor hasn't been good, and Walker Little is interesting, but isn't enough to consider yourself set. Raimann, despite his small school, is NFL ready and could be a top notch RT for years to come. Minority opinion, but I think he should be a top-15 pick in this draft, but his small school likely pushes him down.
34. Det=Matt Corral QB Mississippi, Corral has a good arm, he's accurate, and he's mobile, he just needs seasoning, and sitting behind Goff is a good way to get it.
35. NYJ=Travis Jones DT Connecticut, kind of a Kirkland-brand Jordan Davis. The Jets lost Fatukasi in FA, and could use a space eater in the interior.
36. NYG=David Ojabo DE Michigan, Ojabo was a likely top-10 pick before his Achilles injury. Ojabo is an extremely high upside player, and somebody will definitely take a chance on in late round 1, or early round 2. Pairing him up with Walker and Ojulari long-term could give NY a vaunted young pass rush.
37. Hou=Sam Howell QB UNC, I don't think they are truly tied to Davis Mills at all, I think they just aren't taking a QB at #3. Howell is the best QB in this draft in my opinion, and a much better talent than Mills. Howell's only weakness, is that he played in an offense that was basically 90% deep shots and RPO's. He's also unfairly being punished for declining in 2021, will happen when you lose all your skill position starters to the NFL, and you aren't on a Bama/Ohio St caliber program.
38. NYJ=Lewis Cine S Georgia, was lauded at Georgia for his smarts/instincts, the question was whether he was fast enough for that to truly matter at the NFL level. His 4.37 40, and 11-1 broad jump answered some explosiveness questions. Pairing him with Jordan Whitehead gives the Jets a huge upgrade from what they trotted out in 2021.
39. Chi=Tyler Smith OL Tulsa, his tape isn't all that different from Ekwonu's its just its at Tulsa and not a major school. Smith played T in college, but I think he's a G in the NFL. The Bears lost James Daniels, and Smith is an interesting and more run blocking dominant replacement.
40. Sea=Desmond Ridder QB Cincinnati, he's one of 2 NFL ready QBs in this class. He's been compared to Mariota, or a smaller Prescott, but either way that's better than Drew Lock. Ridder's issues are his accuracy and his size. I think going to a run heavy offense, is the ideal fit for him, and he can really give teams something to think about on PA bootlegs, with that 4.52 40.
41. Sea=Breece Hall RB Iowa St, not the landing spot I'm sure fantasy owners want to see for 2021 anyway, but this feels like a Seattle pick completely. Despite Penny's hot finish to the season, its clear nobody trusts him, and he only signed a 1 year deal, and Carson is coming off a season ending neck injury and is going into a contract season. Hall's ceiling is the roof, and Pete Carroll loves his bellcows. This would be similar to Javonte Williams a year ago to me, in a shared backfield, but with upside, before taking off in 2023.
42. Ind=Kyler Gordon CB Washington, him vs McCreary was a tough call these next 2 picks. Gordon has better size, they have equal speed(which was shocking as Gordon was expected to be a 4.3 guy) but McCreary has better instincts. Either way, I like CB for both these teams, but Gordon is a better outside fit with Indy already having Kenny Moore inside.
43. Atl=Roger McCreary CB Auburn, outstanding technique, he was a 1st rounder until running a 4.5 at the combine, and showing up with 29 inch arms, which would be the shortest in the NFL, and likely puts him in the slot. That said, McCreary rarely had problems facing several NFL level players in the SEC. High floor player in my opinion.
44. Cle=Arnold Ebiketie DE Penn St, consistent player with good technique, he surpised at the combine with high-end jumps and arm length, despite his 6-2 height. I think the only thing keeping him out of round 1 conversation is that he was a 5th year Senior.
45. Bal=Christian Watson WR North Dakota St, exactly what you look for size/speed wise, he does have his share of red flags. Small school, average production, drop issues. That said, not many guys this size (6-4 210) move like he does. The Ravens are a run heavy, deep shot team at heart, and Watson opposite Hollywood will keep those Safeties deep, allowing Andrews/Bateman to feast underneath.
46. Min=Logan Hall DL Houston, has inside/outside versatility at 6-6 283, probably fits best as an interior gap shooter. He's the type of guy DC's love.
47. Was=George Pickens WR Georgia, Washington could use some size with McLaurin/Samuel both smaller guys. Pickens is 6-3, and has very good jump ball skills. Injuries prevented him from ever living up to the AJ Green hype he had once upon a time, but as a #2 WR I think he's going to be a solid player. Also, he's a bit of a fit for Wentz, who has preferred taller targets throughout his career.
48. Chi=Daniel Faalele T Minnesota, upgrading the OL is priority #1 if I'm Chicago, so why not double dip in round 2? Faalele is one of the most unique prospects in recent memory. He's 6-8 380, and showed clear improvement in college year to year. Might not be a year 1 starter as he's a bit raw, but at that size, he can get away with poor technique here and there. RT of the future.
49. NO=Kenneth Walker RB Michigan St, if fantasy owners didn't like my Hall landing spot, they really aren't gonna like this one. Alvin Kamara had a down year last year as a true feature back, and has some off field issues now. The Saints have transitioned to a more run heavy team without Drew Brees, and Mark Ingram is no longer anything more than an ok backup. Walker is the best RB in this class in my opinion, He is an excellent runner in all facets, power, speed, moves you name it. His one weakness is his work in the passing game, which is nullified by this landing spot.
50. KC=DeMarvin Leal DL Texas A&M, looked like a possible 1st rounder until poor combine. Still, his tape is good enough I doubt he falls to round 3. KC continues replenishing their DL, as Leal likely plays inside, but is versatile enough to have some outside snaps, especially in run situations.
51. Phi=Jaquan Brisker S Penn St, good athlete who flies around the field in the running game. He's a better tackler than most LBs. He does have some coverage issues, so he's likely not a deep Safety and is more a box guy, which is fine in Philly as Harris has basically the opposite skill set.
52. Pit=Perrion Winfrey DL Oklahoma, prototype 3-4 end in my opinion at 6-4 290. Its not a huge need for the Steelers, but they could use a young guy there, with Heyward and Alualu both 33+, and Tuitt coming off a lost season and 29 himself.
53. GB=Darian Kinnard OL Kentucky, dominant run blocker at Kentucky, I do feel like his pass blocking raises enough questions that he gets moved inside. I do think GB wants to keep Elgton Jenkins outside after he played so well replacing Bahktiari last season, so he may play RT this year leaving Runyan/Newman as the Guards, Kinnard is more talented than either of those guys.
54. NE=Drake Jackson DE USC, the Pats seem to draft a day 2 edge rusher every season, why should this be any different? One scout compared Jackson's bend around the edge to Gumby, so he's got that going for him, which is nice. He's a bit of a traits based project as he really only wins running around guys, but there is perhaps no better coach to go to, to learn more.
55. Ari=Christian Harris LB Alabama, a bit of a raw athlete, that seems to be what the Cardinals like on defense. Yes they just drafted Simmons/Collins in the 1st each of the last 2 years, but Simmons drops into coverage frequently, and Collins plays a fair bit of edge rusher, Harris is a true LB, and I think replaces a Jordan Hicks for them, and adds quickness to the middle of that defense.
56. Dal=Skyy Moore WR Western Michigan, this probably feels low, but I think the fantasy community (myself very much included) like Moore more than the NFL does. Moore has his flaws, such as level of competition and route running concerns, but he also might be the best WR in the class after the catch. Dallas lost Cooper and Wilson this offseason, and I for one, don't view James Washington as somebody you want among your top-3 WRs, especially as Gallup is no lock for week 1.
57. Buf=Trey McBride TE Colorado St, the clear TE1 in this class, McBride is a good but not great athlete who does everything a TE needs to do pretty well, including block. Dawson Knox is going into a contract year, and in my opinion, is nothing special as a player, and has benefitted greatly from a great offense, ala Robert Tonyan. I think McBride would be an upgrade long-term.
58. Atl=Kingsley Enagbare DE South Carolina, high floor player who wins more with technique than tools. The Falcons are in need of a pass rusher as badly as anyone, former Giant Lorenzo Carter is the top guy right now, and the Giants (not known for their pass rush, didn't really care about keeping him.
59. GB=Jalen Pitre DB Baylor, I know, another DB really? Call this planning ahead. Adrian Amos is 29, and going into a contract season, Darnell Savage was one of the few defenders who took a step backward in Joe Barry's system, and may or may not get the 5th year option. I can't see them committing to both long term, after the Rodgers deal, and having to extend Alexander. Pitre has CB/S versatility, and is outstanding in the run game, with great quickness. His knocks are that he's a 5th year senior, and that he's 5-11 200, which aren't dealbreakers by any means, but likely push him down the board. He's a 1st round talent in my opinion.
60. TB=Phidarian Mathis DT Alabama, he's a little one dimensional as a run defender who will occasionally get there for a sack. Still with Suh gone, and Vea next to him, that's more than enough to be useful for TB.
61. SF=Cameron Thomas DE San Diego St, one would think the Dee Ford experiement is nearing or at its end. They could use a guy opposite Nick Bosa, and Thomas has the size they like.
62. KC=Isaiah Spiller RB Texas A&M, I'll preface this by saying I think Spiller is the most overrated RB in this class, and truth be told, I'm not sure he's a top-8 RB in the class. That said, by all accounts the NFL doesn't feel that way about him. KC is undergoing some changes in their offense, and I think wanting to become more balanced. CEH hasn't been what they had hoped (he's been exactly who I thought he was) and Ronald Jones is no more than a flier in case they weren't able to get a RB in the draft in my opinion. Spiller has solid passing game chops, especially as a blocker, and has good vision, but he has no explosiveness at all, and goes down too easily in my opinion for a 220 pound guy. Personally, I think he's an Alex Collins like player, and if KC takes him, I might try to trade for CEH on the super cheap.
63. Cin=Isaiah Likely TE Coastal Carolina, speaking of guys named Isaiah that the NFL likes more than I do. Likely is a weird case, where he's smaller 245 pounds, but he's also not really fast either. He's a good route runner, and has good hands, but he's more of zone beater I think, which makes Cincy a good fit at least. Ironically, a guy I think he compares to is Hayden Hurst, whom the Bengals just signed, and also goes 245.
64. Den=Quay Walker LB Georgia, I think he's a little one dimensional as a run stuffer. Still that profiles as a useful player at the 2/3 turn, and Denver can use a LB, unless they are really high on Browning.
