Saints 2009 Defense = Patriots 2007 Defense? (1 Viewer)

[fflnut]

The Pats D (in my league) was the #1 defense in 2007. The Pats D in 2007 wasn't great, but opponents were constantly playing catchup which led to turn overs and decent weekly totals from the Pats D.

Now, the NO and NE defenses aren't really the same, but NO looks ready to score a ton of points this year. 2007 was a record setting year for the Pats. Not saying the Saints are going to break records, but again, they should score quite a few points this year. Is it possible we see the same type of scenario playing out for the New Orleans offense/defense this year that played out for the Patriots in 2007?

Few things to note when comparing offenses:

Average points per game: Pats - 36.8 Saints - 37.9

Average yds per game: Pats - 411.2 Saints 426.9

Average time of pos: Pats - 32:31 Saints - 32:53

Few things to note when comparing defenses:

Average points allowed per game: Pats - 17.1 Saints - 21.8

Average yds allowed per game: Pats - 288 Saints - 331.6

*NEW* Average TDs per game: Pats - .5 Saints .875

Edit: updated stats as of 11/10/2009. Added a new stat of average TDs per game scored by the defense. Seems like the Saints D is scoring often now.

 

[maxwjom0]

Playing TB and CAR twice each in the NFC South should certainly help to pad the D stats.........

 

[5-ish Finkle]

The Pats D (in my league) was the #1 defense in 2007. The Pats D in 2007 wasn't great, but opponents were constantly playing catchup which led to turn overs and decent weekly totals from the Pats D. Now, the NO and NE defenses aren't really the same, but NO looks ready to score a ton of points this year. 2007 was a record setting year for the Pats. Not saying the Saints are going to break records, but again, they should score quite a few points this year. Is it possible we see the same type of scenario playing out for the New Orleans offense/defense this year that played out for the Patriots in 2007?

I'm hoping for this(or at least a reasonable facsimile). I'm not expecting the #1 Fantasy Scoring D or anything, but if they can get my around 12-13 PPG for the dollar I had to spend to pick them up? That'd have put them solidly in the top ten in my scoring system a year ago. Sign me up.I waited(too long probably) on defenses in my "main" league this year, and decided I was just going to start streaming week-to-week and picked up Nawlins for last week's contest given how lousy Delhomme looked the week prior. Well, the Panthers sort of lit them up, but they still scored pretty well, what with the turnovers/sacks and, of course, the score. It may be a "lipstick on a pig" kind of gimmick, but I'll take it.I've done the streaming thing before, and it's worked, and I intended to jettison the Saints back to the WW this week, but with all the turnovers so far, I think they've bought at least another couple weeks of "lets see how this shakes out" from me. If the Saints' offense can turn most of their games into track meets, where opponents are forced to try and run-n-gun with them to keep up, and Gregg Williams gets to keep blitzing the snot out of teams......I may just end up keeping them.

 

[fflnut]

Any other thoughts on this? Am I reaching here?

 

[jackdubl]

One difference perhaps is that the 2007 Patriots held the ball for much longer than their opponents. I had their D that year and rode it to a championship. So a big part of it was that they forced teams to play from behind, but another big part of it was their offense was almost a ball control passing game. They were quick strike, but they dinked and dunked the ball for a large part of their games as well. The less time your defense is on the field, the better their fantasy numbers will usually be. I haven't compared average time of possession between NO so far and NE in '07, but that stat would be the one to look at. If NO is putting up the points and getting comparable time of possession, I'd say they have a good chance of finishing with comparable fantasy numbers, especially since their better at pass defense than run.

 

[Short Corner]

Any other thoughts on this? Am I reaching here?

iirc, the rams had a good fantasy d the year they exploded as well. when you play from way ahead, your d can really pin their ears back on the pass rush.

 

[fflnut]

One difference perhaps is that the 2007 Patriots held the ball for much longer than their opponents. I had their D that year and rode it to a championship. So a big part of it was that they forced teams to play from behind, but another big part of it was their offense was almost a ball control passing game. They were quick strike, but they dinked and dunked the ball for a large part of their games as well. The less time your defense is on the field, the better their fantasy numbers will usually be. I haven't compared average time of possession between NO so far and NE in '07, but that stat would be the one to look at. If NO is putting up the points and getting comparable time of possession, I'd say they have a good chance of finishing with comparable fantasy numbers, especially since their better at pass defense than run.

Per NFL.com, the Patriots in 2007 averaged 32:31 per game. The Saints are currently averaging 33:28 per game.Few other interesting things to note when comparing offenses:Average points per game: Pats - 36.8 Saints - 46.5Average yds per game: Pats - 411.2 Saints 468Few things to note when comparing defenses:Average points allowed per game: Pats - 17.1 Saints - 24.5Average yds allowed per game: Pats - 288 Saints 347Of course we're only 2 games in to the 2009 season, so this is a very small sample size. Added these stats to the original post.

 

[Breesisdaman]

All you need to know about the New Orleans defense is the guy who is running it. Greg Williams has never had a poor defense while working as a D Coordinator. Titans, Skins, Jags Bills and now Saints. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregg_Williams

 

[The Jerk]

I would think a better comparison would be to the 2004 Colts. The 2007 Patriots were only a few seasons removed from back-to-back Super Bowl wins won at least as much on defense as on offense. There was a history of strong defense already in place. The 2005 Colts were a better defense and a little more legitimate, but both the 2004 and 2005 Colts defenses were stronger when playing with the lead. In 2004, the Colts were arguably more successfully statistically than they should have been because of the prolific offense.

In any case, I think New Orleans is likely to have higher sacks and turnovers than expected due to the prolific offense and playing with the lead. It's simple. More passing by the opponent will lead to more opportunity for sacks, sack/fumbles and interceptions. Being in the lead can also allow for more aggressive defensive play calls which also matches the preference of DC Gregg Williams.

The only caution I would have is that it's too early to conclude that the offense continues at this pace (or within 10 points of this pace). Detroit hasn't won a game since 2007 and the Eagles were playing with a very inexperienced backup QB. So... I can see the offense and corresponding defensive numbers tailing off when the competition increases (or at least has their starting QB).

Yet I agree that the Saints defense is worth a shot as the price is right.

 

[travdogg]

Before everyone gets excited about the Saints D, I think we need to remember how fortunate the schedule has been so far. Its week 3 and this is the 1st time the Saints have faced a QB who has previously started an NFL game.

 

[ChrisCooleyFan]

Before everyone gets excited about the Saints D, I think we need to remember how fortunate the schedule has been so far. Its week 3 and this is the 1st time the Saints have faced a QB who has previously started an NFL game.

They have played 2 rookie qb's. I know Kolb isnt a rookie, but it was his 1st NFL start.

 

[Sack-Religious]

I think the NO DEF will be good in terms of sacks and turnovers, but if your scoring system deducts points for points or yards allowed, this decreases the value of NO considerably.

 

[Tanner9919]

The Pats D (in my league) was the #1 defense in 2007. The Pats D in 2007 wasn't great, but opponents were constantly playing catchup which led to turn overs and decent weekly totals from the Pats D. Now, the NO and NE defenses aren't really the same, but NO looks ready to score a ton of points this year. 2007 was a record setting year for the Pats. Not saying the Saints are going to break records, but again, they should score quite a few points this year. Is it possible we see the same type of scenario playing out for the New Orleans offense/defense this year that played out for the Patriots in 2007?Few things to note when comparing offenses:Average points per game: Pats - 36.8 Saints - 46.5Average yds per game: Pats - 411.2 Saints 468Average time of pos: Pats - 32:31 Saints - 33:28Few things to note when comparing defenses:Average points allowed per game: Pats - 17.1 Saints - 24.5Average yds allowed per game: Pats - 288 Saints 347

N.O. defense is about as weak as Indy's defense is..Fred Jackson should be able to carve them to bits this weekend..

 

[Breesisdaman]

The Pats D (in my league) was the #1 defense in 2007. The Pats D in 2007 wasn't great, but opponents were constantly playing catchup which led to turn overs and decent weekly totals from the Pats D. Now, the NO and NE defenses aren't really the same, but NO looks ready to score a ton of points this year. 2007 was a record setting year for the Pats. Not saying the Saints are going to break records, but again, they should score quite a few points this year. Is it possible we see the same type of scenario playing out for the New Orleans offense/defense this year that played out for the Patriots in 2007?Few things to note when comparing offenses:Average points per game: Pats - 36.8 Saints - 46.5Average yds per game: Pats - 411.2 Saints 468Average time of pos: Pats - 32:31 Saints - 33:28Few things to note when comparing defenses:Average points allowed per game: Pats - 17.1 Saints - 24.5Average yds allowed per game: Pats - 288 Saints 347

N.O. defense is about as weak as Indy's defense is..Fred Jackson should be able to carve them to bits this weekend..

No and No he wont. He is going to get stopped just like the other two backs Kevin Smith and Westbrook. As for QB's Edwards is not that big of an upgrade over Stafford and Kolb if you want to know the truth. NE and Tampa are not exactly setting the world on fire with their defense. Edwards gets his first real challange this week

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Any other thoughts on this? Am I reaching here?

Maybe not.It is true that the Saints D has faced two QB's making their first start, though Kolb did get some experience last year. BUT...DC Gregg Williams and Darren Sharper have made a huge difference, the Saints are doing well because they are jumping on other teams' D's early and the opposing QB's haven't played much of a role in it all, and the Saints D/ST is now getting turnovers.The defense looks, acts and plays differently this year. They are still lacking QB pressure and sacks though.I had thought of the 1999 Rams' defense actually. Vermeil changed DC that year when his job was on the line, made a few unexciting but key personnel changes, and it made all the difference. I doubt the Saints will finish as high as No. 4 as the 99 Rams and 07 Pats did though, but they could do quite well FF-wise.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

All you need to know about the New Orleans defense is the guy who is running it. Greg Williams has never had a poor defense while working as a D Coordinator. Titans, Skins, Jags Bills and now Saints. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregg_Williams

Well that's clearly full of kool-aid. The Bills defense sucked in '01 and '02. They were good in '03 when they were stacked with pro-bowlers on every level (Pat Williams/Sam Adams, Fletcher/Spikes, Winfield/Clements)...He did a good job with the overachieving Skins in '05 I guess. Other than that, bleh.

Before everyone gets excited about the Saints D, I think we need to remember how fortunate the schedule has been so far. Its week 3 and this is the 1st time the Saints have faced a QB who has previously started an NFL game.

Seriously

 

[Breesisdaman]

The Bills problem was on offense, not defense. Besides wasn't Williams head coach or was he D coordinator ?

Like Jim Haslett who used to coach here in New Orleans, when you take on more than you are capable of doing you stop doing the things well that you are good at. You probably haven't watched much Saints football in this year's preseason and the first regular season two games. Preseason is not a real indication but the starters did really well against the Starters of the other teams and some of those teams had NFL starting QB's (Schuab and the Texans got destroyed by the Saints). As far as regular season goes, Really Kolb looked poised and he didnt have the look of a rookie starter. The problem for defenses with guys like that is there is no game film to study to prepare form them. Lets see how Kolb does tommorow against KC before we make judgements there.

The New Orleans defense led in take aways in preseason. They have since done very well in the regular season against a bad team (Lions) and the Eagles. If it were not for botched up special teams play the stat line would look even better. No one has run the ball on the Saints defense yet. Not Miami's backs, not the raider's backs, Not Slaton,not Kevin Smith and not Wesbrook. I dont expect Fred Jackson to run it up the gut either although he can be affective in the passing game. We will see if it is koolaid tomorrow. The Saints are not a top 10 defense but they have improved enough on that side of the ball to get separation from opponents in a competitive game and thats all that is needed for victories.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Well if we're putting that much stock in the preseason then tomorrow isn't the greatest test since the Bills offense looked like trash for 5 games.

 

[Breesisdaman]

Well if we're putting that much stock in the preseason then tomorrow isn't the greatest test since the Bills offense looked like trash for 5 games.

I think the Bills will put up points, don't get me wrong. They will be somewhat affective through the air but it will not be enough IMO. What is the forcast for tommorows game?

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Well if we're putting that much stock in the preseason then tomorrow isn't the greatest test since the Bills offense looked like trash for 5 games.

I think the Bills will put up points, don't get me wrong. They will be somewhat affective through the air but it will not be enough IMO. What is the forcast for tommorows game?

I think it's supposed to rain.Anyway, I'm assuming the Bills are an average team right now which I think most would agree with; and I just don't see how the Saints have proven enough to be laying 6 on the road vs. an average team. I am worried about Bush/Shockey having big games since we might have the worst LB core in the league though.

 

[Breesisdaman]

Well that could make it somewhat of a lower scoring game FF points wise. How is the wind up there?

 

[Breesisdaman]

Well if we're putting that much stock in the preseason then tomorrow isn't the greatest test since the Bills offense looked like trash for 5 games.

I think the Bills will put up points, don't get me wrong. They will be somewhat affective through the air but it will not be enough IMO. What is the forcast for tommorows game?

I think it's supposed to rain.Anyway, I'm assuming the Bills are an average team right now which I think most would agree with; and I just don't see how the Saints have proven enough to be laying 6 on the road vs. an average team. I am worried about Bush/Shockey having big games since we might have the worst LB core in the league though.

Shockey has been affective so far this year. Bush has been rusty looking. I hope he shakes that off.

 

[Breesisdaman]

Any love for the Saints defense today? They actually pitched a shut out against the Bills offense because the 7 points the Bills scored was on a special teams fake field goal trick play. The offense did not score. The Bills had the 6th ranked offense going in and they were playing at home. Upgrade the Saints defense? Yes?

 

[Doug B]

Any love for the Saints defense today? They actually pitched a shut out against the Bills offense because the 7 points the Bills scored was on a special teams fake field goal trick play. The offense score. The Bills had the 6th ranked offense going in and they were playing at home. Upgrade the Saints defense? Yes?

It was kinda bugging me going into the Philly game how many Eagles fans were completely discounting the Saints' D and playing those ol' "2008 = 2009" and "it was only the Lions!" records over and over again.The Saints defense does have more to prove ... people can still say "it was Matthew Stafford, Kevin Kolb, and Trent Edwards! Of course they looked good!" And getting the better of rookie Mark Sanchez will not help the D's rep much, either. The Giants game might be the first chance for people outside of New Orleans to throw the Saints' defense a little credit.Team's gotta keep it up, though ... you know Rex Ryan is scrutinizing the Bills' defensive game film, seeing what they did right, and figuring out new ways to keep Brees in check. I would say there's a great chance that the Jets hold the Saints' offense below 20 ... so the Saints' D just has to play that much better.

 

[Doug B]

Anyway, I'm assuming the Bills are an average team right now which I think most would agree with; and I just don't see how the Saints have proven enough to be laying 6 on the road vs. an average team.

 

[fflnut]

I put my money where my mouth is and started them this week. I was very satisfied with the result. One thing to note is that the Saints didn't blow out the Bills the entire game and they were still able to keep the Bills in check at home (contrary to the thinking outlined in my OP that the D would be successful only because the offense was so successful).

Others have said the Saints need to prove themselves to us before deciding whether they are a good D. I'll continue to ride them until they prove they are NOT a good defense.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Anyway, I'm assuming the Bills are an average team right now which I think most would agree with; and I just don't see how the Saints have proven enough to be laying 6 on the road vs. an average team.

Oh joy another tough guy Monday handicapper.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Something needs to be noted here:

Besides the fact that the Lions got most of their point off of defense, a broken play by a rookie DB in his literal very first play in the NFL (covering a guy with the initials CJ), and special teams (vs any real drives by the offense), that the Eagles busted a score on a 70 yard TD catch and then did little else, and that the Bills had NO (ZERO) offensive points...

The Saints run defense has been FANTASTIC. Kevin Smith, Westrbook/McCoy, and the previously scintillating Fred Jackson were all held in check.

Guys who used to be overpayed schlubs - DE Charles Grant in particular - are now making plays, as are former underperformers like Will Smith and Harper.

They are also near the very best in the league in lowest 3rd down percentage conversion allowed.

The NYJ, NYG and Falcons are all on the horizon, which is a tough stretch and who knows how longs this lasts, but if this performance continues through the next 3-4 game stretch, watch out.

 

[fflnut]

Stats for 10/04 Sunday game against the Jets:

244 yards allowed

10 points allowed

4 sacks

3 interceptions

1 fumble recovery

2 defensive TDs

I've updated the stats in the original post.

PS - the Saints are currently the #1 defense in my league.

 

[fflnut]

Quick update - main post is updated with current #s. The Saints are currently tied for the 3rd highest total pts for a defense in my league. The team they're tied with is the Eagles who have also had a bye. The top two teams have not had their byes yet. If you look at defenses by avg fantasy pts per game they are tied for the #1 defense in my league.

Updated comparison between NE 2007 and 2009 Saints as of 10/23/2009. Stats are still looking very similar.

Offense

Average points per game: Pats - 36.8 Saints - 38.4

Average yds per game: Pats - 411.2 Saints 430

Average time of pos: Pats - 32:31 Saints - 33:51

Defense

Average points allowed per game: Pats - 17.1 Saints - 18.6

Average yds allowed per game: Pats - 288 Saints 301.2

 

[fflnut]

Quick update - main post is updated with current stats. The Saints are now the #1 scoring fantasy defense in my league. And, they've already had their bye.

Few things to note when comparing offenses:

Average points per game: Pats - 36.8 Saints - 37.9

Average yds per game: Pats - 411.2 Saints 426.9

Average time of pos: Pats - 32:31 Saints - 32:53

Few things to note when comparing defenses:

Average points allowed per game: Pats - 17.1 Saints - 21.8

Average yds allowed per game: Pats - 288 Saints - 331.6

Average TDs per game: Pats - .5 Saints .875

I'd say their overall D is starting to slip (check out avg yds and pts allowed per game), but their offense is continuing to perform (slightly outperform the Pats).

What's interesting is that the Saints D has scored SEVEN defense touchdowns already this season. Can they keep up that pace? Doubtful, but I sure hope they do! Anyone know what the record for defensive TDs in one season is? I'm reading it's Baltimore with 11, but can't find the official word.

 

[fflnut]

What's interesting is that the Saints D has scored SEVEN defense touchdowns already this season. Can they keep up that pace? Doubtful, but I sure hope they do! Anyone know what the record for defensive TDs in one season is? I'm reading it's Baltimore with 11, but can't find the official word.

Just scored another TD so make that EIGHT defensive touchdowns. Anyone know what the official record for defensive TDs in a season is?