Same team IDP Analysis (1 Viewer)

[tones]

I have seen a couple of studies on the value of having two offensive players from the same team (both WR –Moss/Welker or WR &RB Grant/Jennings, etc.) but has anyone found one of multiple IDPs from the same team?

How does a good DL help that teams DB’s do Ints go up while tackle ops go down? What about strong LB play? What does that do to DB value or DL value? Is there any correlation at all? Is it more about scheme so difficlut to determine?

Thanks and Happy Holidays!

 

[Rozelle]

I have seen a couple of studies on the value of having two offensive players from the same team (both WR –Moss/Welker or WR &RB Grant/Jennings, etc.) but has anyone found one of multiple IDPs from the same team?

How does a good DL help that teams DB’s do Ints go up while tackle ops go down? What about strong LB play? What does that do to DB value or DL value? Is there any correlation at all? Is it more about scheme so difficlut to determine?

Thanks and Happy Holidays!

Not sure if INTs actually go up, but opportunity should. Looking at the INT leaders thru week 16... Michael Griffin, Troy Polumallu and Ed Reed all with seven, come from arguably the three best defenses in the NFL, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, all which have very good D-lines. Coincidence? proabably not, pressure forces QBs to rush throws, can cause poor decsions and balls get tipped. As for tackle ops, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are all below league average, without looking at the numbers, I would think tackle ops go down.

Strong LB play, in terms of tackle ops really starts up front, you need your lineman to occupy blockers and keep the LBs free to make plays. Strong LB play will decrease tackle ops for DBs. Scheme plays a part as well as game plans.

 

[Jene Bramel]

for a future post.

I think Rozelle's on target here. There are some defaults worth considering. More pressure forces more mistakes. Better overall play often forces fewer tackle opportunity. Scheme and surrounding cast may play as much of a role as talent.

I'm no statistics expert, but I'd guess that there may be some correlation, but it'd be hard to tease out how much. For example, Nick Collins could have had at least three interceptions against Chicago last week but dropped two. Did a safety with only two picks this season playing behind a great DL fall to the league average because of his talent, because the teams he faced don't throw the over the middle much or don't have a TE that can stretch the field, because he didn't take advantage of the INT opportunity he had, because he had a stud cover LB that kept him away from coverage, etc.?

 

[Drop]

The three INT leaders mentioned all play for teams that key on stopping the run. All 3 teams are top 10 in rush attempts per game offensively as well as top 10 fewest rush attempts per game defensively. They dictate the game to their opponents.

All 3 players were high draft picks that are part of a system that allows them to roam, even though the systems are very different overall. The basic philosophy is to put instinctual playmakers in positions to make plays in as predictable of situations as possible. That's what these teams do, they get you in predictable passing situations and have players and schemes that collapse pockets quickly. They strive for situations where you have to throw downfield, especially late in games when they have leads and can grind out the clock when they have the ball. This puts a lot of pressure on teams to move the ball and score through the air, because they play the run so well.

These teams are loaded defensively, it's really a pick your poison situation because they are so disciplined. The pass rush these teams get are all world class, but they are generated in very different ways. The common theme between these three pick leaders is that they get to read the QB and "rob" areas of the field with their speed.

I am not saying that Michael Griffin is on the same level as the other two, but I do think he should have gotten the pro bowl nod over Chris Hope. It's only his 2nd season at safety so I think he'll get to Hawaii eventually. It's pretty clear that the other two are headed for Canton, Ed Reed should already have a bust if you ask me.

I have not gotten to see a lot of Green Bay, so I don't really have as good of an understanding of how they really get their picks. I think it starts with the CBs press coverage for them, which actually helps their pass rush tremendously. This may cause more coverage sacks for DL players, but it's really tough to know for certain. Their defensive line became so depleted that teams did what they wanted against them and did not have to pick much poison so to speak. They are an interesting defense and I think a lot can be learned by breaking down what they do, but it's hard to do with the current state of their IR.

As far as finding and exploiting correlations between IDP players on the same team in a similar fashion to offensive players I don't know if things can be simplied as much. I agree with Jene and Rozelle that it's more about the supporting cast, schemes, overall gameplans as well as individual skills (some guys are fast but can't catch, some guys can catch but take false steps and get fooled too often.)

There is also the IDP oddity that really good cover corners get very little action their way in many cases, and I guess to some extent safeties are revered and avoided as well, but having no specific coverage assignment or many options gives them freedom that allows them to be assertive which they owe to the supporting casts around them. Safeties that roam are protected by the pass rush being a main concern for the QB as well as the supporting casts covering or controlling certain areas. If you can find solid teams in those departments and identify the players that they give some freedom to I think you'll do very well.

One player that kind of comes to mind in that sense is LaRon Landry. I really like his sideline to sideline speed and I think he hits and I think he can make plays in the clutch. The main thing he needs to improve upon is actually catching the ball, he defenses a lot of passes and should have more picks. I don't think he has stone hands, so he'll come around and get more picks most likely. Reggie Nelson is in a similar situation, but I haven't really seen enough of him yet to get a feel for the kind of player he is mentally, which is important to me in terms of projecting elite players. Both have great range and their defenses are not far off from having no weak links. This is a very complex topic and every teams situation is different, but a lot of things happen because of common threads and I think the more you watch games and think about the fundamentals the more you recognize similar situations, which gives you a better understanding of how things will play out.