Biabreakable
Footballguy
By what basis do you think that 3800 yards and 28 TD is his floor?
Thats a lot of TD for a downside projection.
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Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bostonfred
- Start date
Thats a lot of TD for a downside projection.
I think if you combine rush/pass TD....28 total yearly is a realistic floor....but mostly I am sold more than others already at this point on his talent.....I'm not in wait and see mode...then also in an Andy Reid offense and the explosive core of weapons (which are all fairly young)....Hunt/Hill/Watkins/Kelce....there is potential to move the ball and score a ton of points...any of those guys can take a 5 yard pass to the house...if they get anything in terms of field position occasionally from their defense and special teams, I see frequent trips to the red zone and the talent to punch it in the end zone instead of settling for FG's like they have in the past with Smith....I think Mahomes has the ability/arm and attitude to gamble and fit the ball in/make throws in the red zone that Smith may have never thought about making and often threw away....I realize most won't agree and want to wait and see and thats fine....but what fun is that....I realize it's a bold call and I could be completely wrong....but most don't frequent these boards just to hear the same regurgitated stuff....at his price, Mahomes will be pulling the trigger for almost every one of my fantasy teams this year...
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
I can see value in your Mahomes take. He has talent and the weapons are there. I'd be inclined to buy but am wondering at what cost.Stinkin Ref said:
So, where do you see him in your overall QB rankings and at about what price point, either in terms of round drafted or cost paid at auction, would you be willing to make the Mahomes pick?
NeverEnough
Footballguy
They just traded a key piece of the D, though.Stinkin Ref said:
Men-in-Cleats
Footballguy
Most want to say this because they have a very good reason to do so. That offense was stuck in the past and was going nowhere. It had been an utter failure for ages and the drastic changes and far better results under the new regime with similar personnel demonstrated just how bad the previous offense was.Stinkin Ref said:
Woods played very well having escaped Buffalo to a far better passing offense. Marquise Goodwin also escaped that offense and had a good year as well despite having mediocre QB play for much of the year. He's not an elite WR but plenty of teams win tons of games without an elite WR and they definitely could add to his weapons in the draft.
They have an elite defense that is going to give them short fields and the two best opposing defenses in their division have entered rebuild mode. KC will face elite pass rushes in Denver and the Bolts and their own defense has lost some key contributors.
Nobody is saying you should sit around and see how it shakes out. You are, however, haphazardly discounting any evidence for the opposing viewpoint and not really providing any in support of your own viewpoint. The fact remains that more first time starters that we haven't seen before flame out than end up having a floor of 3800 yds and 28 TD's. The fact remains that while Goff's year was a huge leap, it was not so good that it is unlikely for him to be able to exceed it and he has the pedigree and the opportunity to continue to develop in a strong offensive system. It isn't like he was some journeyman QB who exploded for a huge year.
dipandglide
Footballguy
What he did to close out the ‘15 season won a lot of people’s leagues. If he stays healthy, and recieves 100+ targets, he’ll produce and make owners happy.Ack88 said:
I don’t disagree with you.
He certainly can play and produce. The point is he is consistently over drafted. The perception is greater than the reality.
bud29
Footballguy
Huge KC homer here. These could absolutely go either way, but here's my take -
2018 - Hill by a little
I really, really like Watkins' fit in KC. Neither Goff nor Taylor have been fantastic deep ball throwers, and if we know anything about Mahomes, it's that he can really chuck it. With Hill across from him and Kelce in the middle, this is also the best supporting cast Watkins will have played with in the NFL. Defenses can't key in on him like in previous years. My pick honestly boiled down to system familiarity and injury history, but that's not exactly rock solid reasoning. KC's offense will be changing dramatically with Mahomes at the helm, and Watkins will have a full offseason to take it all in and develop a rapport with the QB (unlike his stint in LA) so Hill's experience advantage may not amount to much. Also, injuries are impossible to predict. I think we're all familiar with Watkins' history and Hill has been very healthy so far, but who knows. *If* they play equal snaps, there's a really good chance Watkins outperforms Hill. I think he's certainly the more natural WR of the two.
Dynasty - Hill by a little
Health plays a bit of a role in this, but I think that Hill has a better chance of staying in KC with the gun-slinging QB. I know basing dyno valuations purely on situation isn't a great idea, but I think Mahomes could really be a boon for these two guys. Both Hill and Watkins will probably demand big paydays when their contracts are up, so it's unlikely KC can keep them both. I'm guessing Hill stays just because he's the homegrown talent, but the Chiefs' current GM is not the guy who drafted him, so I'm probably overstating the importance of that. I certainly thought Marcus Peters would be a Chief for life and we all saw how that ended up.
2018 - Hill by a little
I really, really like Watkins' fit in KC. Neither Goff nor Taylor have been fantastic deep ball throwers, and if we know anything about Mahomes, it's that he can really chuck it. With Hill across from him and Kelce in the middle, this is also the best supporting cast Watkins will have played with in the NFL. Defenses can't key in on him like in previous years. My pick honestly boiled down to system familiarity and injury history, but that's not exactly rock solid reasoning. KC's offense will be changing dramatically with Mahomes at the helm, and Watkins will have a full offseason to take it all in and develop a rapport with the QB (unlike his stint in LA) so Hill's experience advantage may not amount to much. Also, injuries are impossible to predict. I think we're all familiar with Watkins' history and Hill has been very healthy so far, but who knows. *If* they play equal snaps, there's a really good chance Watkins outperforms Hill. I think he's certainly the more natural WR of the two.
Dynasty - Hill by a little
Health plays a bit of a role in this, but I think that Hill has a better chance of staying in KC with the gun-slinging QB. I know basing dyno valuations purely on situation isn't a great idea, but I think Mahomes could really be a boon for these two guys. Both Hill and Watkins will probably demand big paydays when their contracts are up, so it's unlikely KC can keep them both. I'm guessing Hill stays just because he's the homegrown talent, but the Chiefs' current GM is not the guy who drafted him, so I'm probably overstating the importance of that. I certainly thought Marcus Peters would be a Chief for life and we all saw how that ended up.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Let’s not forget mahomes running ability- he could easily tack on 500 yds rushing this year, even if he misses the optimistic floor we’re discussing passing.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Thank you for tapping the brakes on the mahomes optimism by reminding us that mahomes can easily have 500 yards, a number that only two quarterbacks reached last year and just one the year before that.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
While I think the obvious answer is Hill, this could be a good fit for Watkins, if he can actually stay healthy. If Albert freaking Wilson can put up 43-554-3 in an Andy Reid offense, Watkins should be able to hit 60-800-5 if he plays all 16 games.
I'll pass on both Hill and Watkins in 2018...Chiefs have fully half their schedule against 2017 top ten passing defenses.
JAX, Broncos(2x), LAC (2x), Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Seahawks. Plus the much improved Rams. None of these gave up average >214 yd/game (3400 yds / year) and more importantly gave up limited big yardage passing plays (Hill and Watkins' forte).
Obviously things can change year to year, but we all know these names.
No matter Mahomes' talent, in his first full year his going to get eaten up by these defenses...both Watkins and Hill will likely have below average years for their careers.
JAX, Broncos(2x), LAC (2x), Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Seahawks. Plus the much improved Rams. None of these gave up average >214 yd/game (3400 yds / year) and more importantly gave up limited big yardage passing plays (Hill and Watkins' forte).
Obviously things can change year to year, but we all know these names.
No matter Mahomes' talent, in his first full year his going to get eaten up by these defenses...both Watkins and Hill will likely have below average years for their careers.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Ok so here's my thoughts
1) people seem to believe kelce and hill are entitled to repeat last year's production. But Kansas city just gave Watkins 30 million dollars guaranteed over three years. That at least indicates that they wanted to upgrade their offense.
2) Alex Smith played really well the last three years, completing 67.9%, 67.1% and 65.3% of his passes. Iirc he was second only to brees last year. Mahomes is not likely to have as high a completion percentage out of the gate, or maybe ever.
3) One of the arguments in favor of Tyreek is that he caught 75 of 105, and 61 of 83 passes thrown his way the last two years. He also caught 11 of 17 red zone targets, but for just 3 touchdowns in his career
4) One of the arguments in favor of kelce is that he's a special talent at tight end who catches 70 percent of his passes. He has also caught 9 of 20 red zone targets, again for only 5 touchdowns in his career.
5) One of the arguments against Watkins is that he didn't get many targets last year and didn't catch as high a percentage of them, although he did have a high yards per catch and did very well on red zone targets (16 of 30 for 12 touchdowns in his career, 7 of 10 for 7 touchdowns last year with Goff).
The other side of that argument is that he caught 60% of passes with tyrod, who is a 62%passer, and then last year with Goff, who is also a 62% passer.
Goff also had noteworthy difficulties hitting him deeper. To wit, Watkins caught 32 of his 60 non red zone targets for 542 yards with Goff.
6) If mahomes passes for 64%, it would represent a significant downgrade for kelce and hill, but a significant upgrade for Watkins.
I believe a big part of hill and kelce's high percentage receiving numbers was based on Smith's high percentage passing - Smith's ability to read defenses and Reid's ability to scheme guys open. That's not to say hill or kelce aren't good players, but I expect their catch percentages to drop off by 5 percent or more with mahomes.
Watkins, on the other hand, could see his catch percentage increase, as a result of playing in a better overall offense, and playing with a quarterback who has deep ball accuracy.
7) Watkins is arriving in a situation where everyone is starting from scratch. Mahomes barely played or practiced with kelce and hill last year, and the mahomes offense figures to look different from the Alex Smith offense.
Watkins is immediately their best red zone target, having caught 12 touchdowns on 30 targets vs a combined 8 on 37 targets from hill and kelce.
Watkins is also their highest ypc target, averaging 15.9 per reception vs 12.7 for kelce and 13.1 for hill.
And he's likely to improve on his efficiency, increasing his catch percentage slightly while the other two likely drop slightly in catch percentage without Smith.
So it really comes down to targets. If Watkins can earn the same number of targets as hill, he should put up better numbers.
Which is why for me, I think Watkins is about the same in redraft and the slightly better play in dynasty, and the poll bears out that he's become a bit of a bargain relative to hill while people continue to expect the status quo.
1) people seem to believe kelce and hill are entitled to repeat last year's production. But Kansas city just gave Watkins 30 million dollars guaranteed over three years. That at least indicates that they wanted to upgrade their offense.
2) Alex Smith played really well the last three years, completing 67.9%, 67.1% and 65.3% of his passes. Iirc he was second only to brees last year. Mahomes is not likely to have as high a completion percentage out of the gate, or maybe ever.
3) One of the arguments in favor of Tyreek is that he caught 75 of 105, and 61 of 83 passes thrown his way the last two years. He also caught 11 of 17 red zone targets, but for just 3 touchdowns in his career
4) One of the arguments in favor of kelce is that he's a special talent at tight end who catches 70 percent of his passes. He has also caught 9 of 20 red zone targets, again for only 5 touchdowns in his career.
5) One of the arguments against Watkins is that he didn't get many targets last year and didn't catch as high a percentage of them, although he did have a high yards per catch and did very well on red zone targets (16 of 30 for 12 touchdowns in his career, 7 of 10 for 7 touchdowns last year with Goff).
The other side of that argument is that he caught 60% of passes with tyrod, who is a 62%passer, and then last year with Goff, who is also a 62% passer.
Goff also had noteworthy difficulties hitting him deeper. To wit, Watkins caught 32 of his 60 non red zone targets for 542 yards with Goff.
6) If mahomes passes for 64%, it would represent a significant downgrade for kelce and hill, but a significant upgrade for Watkins.
I believe a big part of hill and kelce's high percentage receiving numbers was based on Smith's high percentage passing - Smith's ability to read defenses and Reid's ability to scheme guys open. That's not to say hill or kelce aren't good players, but I expect their catch percentages to drop off by 5 percent or more with mahomes.
Watkins, on the other hand, could see his catch percentage increase, as a result of playing in a better overall offense, and playing with a quarterback who has deep ball accuracy.
7) Watkins is arriving in a situation where everyone is starting from scratch. Mahomes barely played or practiced with kelce and hill last year, and the mahomes offense figures to look different from the Alex Smith offense.
Watkins is immediately their best red zone target, having caught 12 touchdowns on 30 targets vs a combined 8 on 37 targets from hill and kelce.
Watkins is also their highest ypc target, averaging 15.9 per reception vs 12.7 for kelce and 13.1 for hill.
And he's likely to improve on his efficiency, increasing his catch percentage slightly while the other two likely drop slightly in catch percentage without Smith.
So it really comes down to targets. If Watkins can earn the same number of targets as hill, he should put up better numbers.
Which is why for me, I think Watkins is about the same in redraft and the slightly better play in dynasty, and the poll bears out that he's become a bit of a bargain relative to hill while people continue to expect the status quo.
Tau837
Footballguy
Good post. But I'm not sure I agree on the bolded.
Last season, KC scored 415 points, compared to 478 for the Rams. Both teams had 3 defensive TDs and 1 special teams TD; the Rams had a safety, KC did not. Crediting 7 points per TD for convenience, KC's offense generated 387 points, compared to 448 for the Rams. Huge gap there.
Last season, KC had 6007 yards from scrimmage on offense. In comparison, LAR had 5784. So KC had 223 more yards. More than half of that delta is from week 16, when both teams rested a lot of starters.
Perhaps it is more relevant to focus on the passing game and consider which offense is better for Watkins specifically. Last season, the Rams passed for 3831 yards and 28 TDs, compared to 4104 and 26 for KC, which is roughly a wash from a fantasy perspective. However, since this thread is about WRs, consider that the Rams targeted their WRs 321 times in 518 pass attempts (62%), compared to 242 times in 543 passing attempts for KC (45%). Huge gap there.
To be sure, that was influenced by personnel, and KC seems likely to increase its WR targets with Watkins added to the offense... but it is also true that they still have a huge target hog in Kelce and that Reid offenses typically do not provide big target numbers to a single WR, much less to two of them. Top 2 WRs in targets per season in Reid's HC career:
- 2017 - Hill (105), Wilson (62) = 167
- 2016 - Hill (83), Maclin (76) = 159
- 2015 - Maclin (124), Wilson (57) = 181
- 2014 - Bowe (95), DeAnthony Thomas (31) = 126
- 2013 - Bowe (103), McCluster (83) = 186
- 2012 - Maclin (122), Jackson (87) = 209
- 2011 - Jackson (104), Maclin (96) = 200
- 2010 - Maclin (115), Jackson (95) = 210
- 2009 - Jackson (117), Maclin (91) = 208
- 2008 - Jackson (120), Kevin Curtis (63) = 183
- 2007 - Kevin Curtis (135), Reggie Brown (111) = 246
- 2006 - Reggie Brown (88), Stallworth (70) = 158
- 2005 - Owens (92, in 7 games), Reggie Brown (79) = 171
- 2004 - Owens (127), Pinkston (63) = 190
- 2003 - Thrash (92), Pinkston (86) = 178
- 2002 - Pinkston (113), Thrash (107) = 220
- 2001 - Thrash (108), Pinkston (84) = 192
- 2000 - Charles Johnson (100), Small 94) = 194
- 1999 - Small (99), Charles Johnson (72) = 171
Had Watkins stayed in LA, there wouldn't have been any significant changes around him on offense. All of the players would move into their second season in the offense. In contrast, KC moves from Smith to Mahomes, and Watkins needs to learn and fit into a new offense and build chemistry with Mahomes. (Not saying that is hard for Watkins, just something he didn't have to do if he stayed.)
So not sure it is fair to say Watkins is moving to a better offense. A lot of that depends on how good Mahomes is, and we don't know for sure about that yet.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well you certainly know more about KC than I do and you were right about Hill last year. I wasn't sure about Hill and some of your comments about him and what you expected him to do were pretty accurate.Stinkin Ref said:
I still think the TD are a bit high even if your talking about rushing TD as well compared to historical QB performance.
In Reids offense Smiths highest total TDs was 27 last season, possibly a career year for Smith. While Mahomes may end up a better QB than Smith, to expect him to do that as his first year as a starter seems optimistic to me. I think a floor or downside projection should be more conservative than that. The numbers you are talking about look more like a ceiling than a floor to me.
The weapons are very good though so I wouldn't rule it out, I just wouldn't expect that much as a worst case scenario.
Tau837
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Id take Hill pretty easily over Kelce. Dynasty ADP right now, Hill is #19, Kelce #31.
Tau837
Footballguy
I'm a bit surprised by that. I wonder if that ADP has fully accounted for Watkins coming to the Chiefs. I guess I'm more surprised by Hill at 19 than Kelce at 31.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Have Hill and Kelce on my dynasty team and added Watkins last year in a trade for Njoku. Now I have them all in a Chiefs jersey.
I would classify Kelce as elite but I'd still take Hill over him for the reasons you mentioned but also age.
bostonfred
Footballguy
They're both very good. Are they both elite or are they just the beneficiaries of a high percentage passing offense?
2013
Smith 60.6%
Tight ends 49/73 67.1%
Rbs 106/153 69.3%
Wrs 177/308 57.6%
2014
Smith 65.3%
Kelce 67/87 77%
Rbs 95/136 69.8%
Wrs 159/255 62%
2015
Smith 65.3%
Kelce 72/103 70%
Rbs 53/72 73.6%
Wrs 158/258 65.1%
2016
Smith 67.1%
Kelce 85/117 72.6%
Hill 61/83 73.4%
Rbs 77/99 77.7%
Wrs besides hill 141/236 59.7%
2017
Smith 67.5%
Kelce 83/122 68%
Hill 75/105 71.4%
Rbs 90/112 80.3%
Wrs beside hill 115/186 61.8%
Here's what I see - Smith's completion percentage rose when he got guys who could catch. Mostly he played with wide receivers who couldn't - Dwayne bowe, Albert Wilson, Maclin had a very good year his first year in kc at 70 percent but dipped below 60 percent the following year and they dumped him.
Kc had 777 completions to rbs/tes vs 882 for wide receivers, and had hill running a lot of short routes like slants, screens and comebacks.
What we don't know is how those targets will look in 2018+. We don't know if kc will still throw so many passes to tight ends and running backs. We don't know whether hill will be asked to run so many shorter routes. We don't know what kind of targets Watkins will receiver, or how many.
What we do know is they just broke the bank for the highest priced free agent receiver this off season to add Watkins to the mix. I would be looking to sell shares of hill and kelce while their value is still high, because their team just changed from captain checkdown and the 3 guys who can catch to a gun slinger with two guys who can get deep. I wouldn't make any assumptions about the target distribution this year and beyond.
2013
Smith 60.6%
Tight ends 49/73 67.1%
Rbs 106/153 69.3%
Wrs 177/308 57.6%
2014
Smith 65.3%
Kelce 67/87 77%
Rbs 95/136 69.8%
Wrs 159/255 62%
2015
Smith 65.3%
Kelce 72/103 70%
Rbs 53/72 73.6%
Wrs 158/258 65.1%
2016
Smith 67.1%
Kelce 85/117 72.6%
Hill 61/83 73.4%
Rbs 77/99 77.7%
Wrs besides hill 141/236 59.7%
2017
Smith 67.5%
Kelce 83/122 68%
Hill 75/105 71.4%
Rbs 90/112 80.3%
Wrs beside hill 115/186 61.8%
Here's what I see - Smith's completion percentage rose when he got guys who could catch. Mostly he played with wide receivers who couldn't - Dwayne bowe, Albert Wilson, Maclin had a very good year his first year in kc at 70 percent but dipped below 60 percent the following year and they dumped him.
Kc had 777 completions to rbs/tes vs 882 for wide receivers, and had hill running a lot of short routes like slants, screens and comebacks.
What we don't know is how those targets will look in 2018+. We don't know if kc will still throw so many passes to tight ends and running backs. We don't know whether hill will be asked to run so many shorter routes. We don't know what kind of targets Watkins will receiver, or how many.
What we do know is they just broke the bank for the highest priced free agent receiver this off season to add Watkins to the mix. I would be looking to sell shares of hill and kelce while their value is still high, because their team just changed from captain checkdown and the 3 guys who can catch to a gun slinger with two guys who can get deep. I wouldn't make any assumptions about the target distribution this year and beyond.
Have you not studied history of WR production with Alex Smith as the QB? They made Smith better, not vice versa. It's a high percentage completion offense because of Alex Smith and who he is combined with fact Hill and Kelce are dangerous after the catch.bostonfred said:
You've been high on this Watkins love and Watkins over Hill since the signing. You made a poll, you say to show that Watkins was undervalued but I don't know. Just showed that consensus overwhelmingly prefers Hill, I can't imagine that was the result you were hoping to see but if you say so. At this point this just playing like asking for someone's opinion so you can argue it. My opinion has been provided on this subject multiple times already.
I would strongly encourage people to buy shares of Hill as much as you can and while you can. I have been.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree we do not know what the distribution will be like in 2018 and with a new QB there are going to be changes from Smith in terms of efficiency and distribution of the opportunities.bostonfred said:
What we do know is that Andy Reids offense has a long history of using the RB and TE in the passing game more than an average NFL offense does. The personnel and the QB could change that somewhat, but the play calling and scheme should mean that this is a trend that will continue, even with Mahomes, it just will be different for how Andy/Mahomes function in the system.
I will let Bud29 and others speculate on that, but I get the general impression that Mahomes will take more chances and push the ball down the field more than Smith has most of his career. So the completion percentage is likely going down with the yards per reception going up. There may be more targets to Watkins and Hill than most of the seasons of Andy Reid offenses because of Hill and Watkins being more talented then WR groups in the past.
I would still assume a large percentage of targets to the RB and TE, but maybe not as much as last year, and maybe not as much as Smith was using them because of Mahomes preferring the WR more. Only time will tell on that.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I was never a Watkins fan and always thought he was over valued until last year dropped his price. I thought he would rebound well this year with the rams if he stayed, mostly because the rams would have had to invest heavily to keep him. The chiefs invested heavily in Watkins instead.
I've looked at it, and I think the consensus now is that hill and kelce won't see any drop in numbers and that Watkins will struggle to be valuable. That's what I'm hearing from most people here and on other sites, not just this poll. I disagree with that consensus and wanted to offer a counter point that hill and kelce may not be that safe and that Watkins may get a larger share than the consensus opinion right now.
I haven't argued for acquiring Watkins at anything but a discounted price - and I wouldn't sell hill or kelce for a steep discount either.
I do think a lot of tyreek hill owners are acting like hill can only get better. I think part of that is natural - he already proved the haters wrong once and he'll obviously do it again! - even though the situation has changed. I don't know if hill will put up better or worse numbers, or more or fewer targets, but that while passing offense is going to look a lot different.
i just saw hill traded straight up for leveon bell in the dynasty trade thread and people didn't seem to think that was ridiculous, which tells me that with the risk in kc that things will change dramatically this year, I'd be selling hill for full price without hesitation.
Tau837
Footballguy
Are they really more talented than Desean Jackson and Maclin in their primes? I don't see that.
Tau837
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So perhaps those seasons would be good to look at as far as what the pattern of distribution might be?
I wasn't suggesting that Watkins and Hill are the best WR duo ever in Andy Reids career, just that as a duo they are likely better than what he has had to work with on average.
Kelce is more talented as a receiver in my opinion than LJ Smith, Chad Lewis or Brent Celek were, but Smith led the team in targets twice with Reid and was in the top 3 pretty consistently, Chad Lewis led the team in targets once before him. Brent Celek was 2nd on the team in targets 2009 with both Jackson and Maclin healthy for most of the games that year, then he was 4th in targets in 2010 then 2nd in targets again in 2011. These would be the 3 seasons where Reid actually had two good WR and a TE who isn't as good as Kelce in my opinion was 2nd in targets two out of those 3 seasons.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
I like Watkins as much as anyone, probably more than most but disagree with the bolded. Tyreek is extremely naturally talented. Maybe not as we'd view the traditional WR, but dude is a phenomenal athlete and has turned into a really good receiver.
Slider
Footballguy
Watkins is a great athlete, better route runner and more natural catcher. I'll take the 4th pick in the draft on the most wr friendly O on the planet every time.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Past performance does not equal future performance. So, keep in mind that the following information does not mean that I think he's a lock for only better things. However, consider the following:
In 1 ppr, Tyreek Hill finished as WR8 with 16 ppg. I'm going to leave off OBJ because he missed most of the season. Here are the 6 guys who finished ahead of him.
A. Brown -- 22 ppg
Hopkins -- 20.8 ppg
K. Allen -- 17.4 ppg
Landry -- 16.5 ppg
Fitzgerald -- 16.5 ppg
M. Thomas -- 16.2 ppg
T. Hill -- 16 ppg
When looking at that, only Hopkins and Brown performed significantly better than Hill and Allen about 1.5 ppg better. The rest were really close. But, now look at this:
A. Brown -- 162 targets
Hopkins -- 174 targets
Allen -- 159 targets
Landry -- 161 targets
Fitzgerald -- 161 targets
M. Thomas -- 149 targerts
Tyreek Hill -- 105 targets
One of these things is not like the others. On a per target basis, Hill was a fantasy monster and better than every WR ahead of him. If you give Hill 50% more targets and put him in the same range as the other (and actually would still be behind all but Thomas in targets), then he'd rate out at 24 ppg. Uh, wow?
Of course you can't just say his efficiency would remain the same nor can you say that he will get more targets nor can you say he's going to keep up that same kind of per target production. But, to say that Hill just isn't as good of a WR as Watkins (and a lot of other WRs) is a little short-sighted, IMO. So far the evidence proves otherwise.
To add to that, during his rookie year he was at 12.5 ppg but only received 83 targets. Which is almost an identical ppg rate per target as 2017. Once again, if you put his targets up with those other WRs, he would have outscored them all. So that makes it less likely that 2017 was some kind of fluke. And he's the youngest player on that list to boot.
While there's no guarantee Hill is going to get better, if his targets increase and he remains the same WR he's been the past 2 years, he has legit upside to be a difference maker like Hopkins or Brown. And I don't think the addition of Sammy precludes that.
In 1 ppr, Tyreek Hill finished as WR8 with 16 ppg. I'm going to leave off OBJ because he missed most of the season. Here are the 6 guys who finished ahead of him.
A. Brown -- 22 ppg
Hopkins -- 20.8 ppg
K. Allen -- 17.4 ppg
Landry -- 16.5 ppg
Fitzgerald -- 16.5 ppg
M. Thomas -- 16.2 ppg
T. Hill -- 16 ppg
When looking at that, only Hopkins and Brown performed significantly better than Hill and Allen about 1.5 ppg better. The rest were really close. But, now look at this:
A. Brown -- 162 targets
Hopkins -- 174 targets
Allen -- 159 targets
Landry -- 161 targets
Fitzgerald -- 161 targets
M. Thomas -- 149 targerts
Tyreek Hill -- 105 targets
One of these things is not like the others. On a per target basis, Hill was a fantasy monster and better than every WR ahead of him. If you give Hill 50% more targets and put him in the same range as the other (and actually would still be behind all but Thomas in targets), then he'd rate out at 24 ppg. Uh, wow?
Of course you can't just say his efficiency would remain the same nor can you say that he will get more targets nor can you say he's going to keep up that same kind of per target production. But, to say that Hill just isn't as good of a WR as Watkins (and a lot of other WRs) is a little short-sighted, IMO. So far the evidence proves otherwise.
To add to that, during his rookie year he was at 12.5 ppg but only received 83 targets. Which is almost an identical ppg rate per target as 2017. Once again, if you put his targets up with those other WRs, he would have outscored them all. So that makes it less likely that 2017 was some kind of fluke. And he's the youngest player on that list to boot.
While there's no guarantee Hill is going to get better, if his targets increase and he remains the same WR he's been the past 2 years, he has legit upside to be a difference maker like Hopkins or Brown. And I don't think the addition of Sammy precludes that.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
I'd lean towards Hill, but not strongly. Nobody is getting doubled here and I'm not sure where you shade coverage to w/ Kelce/Hill/Watkins and Hunt running routes. Maybe swap out a S w/ a CB? Does a Mahomes-led team open it up downfield (probably) and the Chiefs D is not getting fixed this year, so I'd aggressively bet the over for pass attempts and lots of combined games of 70-80 points.
while I agree to a certain extent....to be fair Wilson put up 10-147 in the last meaningless game of the season against DEN with Mahomes chucking it and most of the starters sitting....that accounted for over a 4th of his production on the year....
I admitted Goff had a nice year...so not discounting anything....I just gave an opinion that I think that will be the best year of his career....and it is hard for me to provide support for my feelings about Mahomes since we don't have much to go by right now, except the eye ball test (which he has seemed to pass for almost everybody including Von/Talib/Harris)....and the borderline elite level of supporting offensive talent around him...
PPR
2014: ADP 27 finished 27
2015: ADP 18 finished 20
2016: ADP 16 finished 92 (injured/8 games)
2017: ADP 21 finished 40 (new team right before start of season)
2018: looks like he is going around WR23 right now
don't really believe he was over drafted first two years...possibly the third year but he was coming off a top 20 season where he did all the damage in just 13 games....and the last year he was mostly being drafted as a member of BUF even though he ended up a LAR.....
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The reasoning makes sense and I agree with your rationale, but the reality is unchanged- Watkins has not produced relative to where he was selected. He has under performed, often substantially.
His 23rd position in ADP for 2018 looks too rich for me. FWIW he should probably have a WR ADP in the 30s.
Presuming a twelve team league with 2 starting WRs, that makes him a back end WR 2, based on #23 overall- a nonstarter in my book.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
6 games down.
His previous PPG/total targets was ~6.5 the last 2 years.
He's currently at 6.3 and his targets have indeed increased. He's on pace for 136. Still not the same level of other WR1s for total targets. Yet, he's WR3 in PPG in behind only Thielen and M. Thomas who are getting far more targets.
Ridiculous upside.
gianmarco
Footballguy
5 games to go.
Currently WR2 in PPG (22.7) behind only Thielen (23.5). He still has the fewest targets of the top 10 WRs in PPG with only 94 targets (pace for 136). Interestingly enough, M. Thomas is only at 97 and is similarly very efficient. Every other top 10 WR is at 110+ with some of them in the 120's (Julio, Thielen, Brown).
His points/target rate is outrageous. And, in 3/5 games where he's actually hit double digit targets in a game, he's scored 33, 39, and 43 points so it's not even as if his efficiency goes down with increased targets.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Holy guacamole did that one work out
I was way wrong on hill this year and own him nowhere. But this ended up being a great call by whoever it was.
