Santana Moss at #32 on Wimer's Board (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

I like the Moss prediction, but in order for Bryant to rank WR15 he is going to need to post on the order of 1000 yards and 8 tds.

Last season with Lloyd and Battle leading the way, all of SF wide recievers combined put up 1500y and 8tds, easily last in the league. They will be hard pressed not to improve on those numbers, but assuming Battle stays healthy he is going to see his share of balls as well.

Bryant has posted 1000 yards once in his career, and never more than 6 tds. He is moving to a new system with a 2nd year QB and a ton of question marks at RB. In order for Bryant to have a shot at 8, you got to figure at least 16 passing TDs out of this offense (and it seems generous giving him half of all recieving TDs, there would have to be serious chemistry there). Alex Smith threw a wopping 1 td in 9 games last season, and overall 8 were thrown. Basically the 9ers will have to double their passing TD production and improve their passing yardage by perhaps 50% to accomodate those numbers for Bryant. That is a tall order.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Obviously, we have a difference of opinion about these 2 players. That's what the preseason is for.

You indict both Lloyd and Bryant for "drops", but ignore who they were working with last year (both had large chunks of the season with rookies - Charlie Frye and Alex Smith) - the timing and co-ordination between QB and receiver is no easy thing, and if the ball arrives just a tad early or late, the receiver ends up looking bad - but it can be more the fault of the passer than the receiver. First year QBs are notorious for having mechanical/timing issues at this level.

Regarding Moss being a top-5 receiver as far as "comfort" goes, take a look at his game logs Santana Moss Game logs - Moss can be an extremely frustrating player when it comes to consistency: last year, he was between 34 and 89 yards receiving with 0 TDs 9 different weeks (2-5 FP if 15 yards = 1 FP). 2-5 FP a week for half the season is not comfortable in my book - and almost everyone agrees that last year was a "career" season for Moss.

People who draft this guy as their #1 WR are not going to be happy this year, IMO. See my reasons earlier in the thread.

Conversely, I believe people who grab Antonio Bryant for their WR 2 are going to be pleased.

I think we have some pretty large misconceptions here. The first is drops. Drops are somewhat difficult to track because there are some serious discrepencies in how they are judged. However, IN GENERAL, a drop is BY DEFINITION not the fault of the QB. A drop is when a receiver has a pass get to his hands with little to no pressure and doesn't make the catch. A "bad pass" is NOT generally considered a "drop". Bryant in particular has dropped a LOT of passes over the years from QBs whose passes didn't fall through the hands of the other receivers on his team at the time. If a ball hits a receiver in the hands, he should catch it no matter who threw it.The "consistency" issue is another personal favorite of mine. There is this odd phenomenon where only certain guys get the label of being "inconsistent", when the reality is that virtually ALL NFL receivers are inconsistent.

Super-duper Steve Smith had games with 34, 12, 34, 55, 18, and 33 yards last year (none of those games included TDs by the way). Why is no one complaining about his consistency? Using your scoring rules, Smith had games with 2, 0, 2, 3, 1, and 2 fantasy points. Oh my. Throw him in the dumper - he's inconsistent.

Marvin Harrison is consistent right? How bout the games with 36, 17, 39, 42, 61, 19, and 52 yards (1 with a TD)?

How bout Fitzgerald? Games with 41, 36, 41, and 23 (only 1 with a TD).

Chambers had games of 40, 21, 25, 40, 12, and 34 (2 with TDs).

Reggie Wayne had 50, 19, 48, and 21 (1 with a TD).

Galloway who actually had a pretty consistent year had games with 0, 0, 39 and 38 (no TDs).

Driver was actually fairly consistent too, but had games of 48, 49, 48, 50, 32, 56 (no TDs).

Chad Johnson WAS pretty darn consistent, but even he had a game with 22 yards and no TDs.

Moss had exactly TWO games with less than 50 yards last year (3 fewer than Steve Smith for example) - and one of them was in the playoffs. He had 34 yards against the Giants. So in 15 of 16 regular season weeks the guy got you at least 5 points (using standard scoring). For an NFL receiver, that is pretty solid consistency. He did have those 3 monster weeks where he dominated, but you aren't really holding that AGAINST him right? Yes, they were the reason he was the #2 receiver in the league last year, but you'll probably find that MOST of the top 1 or 2 receivers in past years had monster games "padding" their stats in those years. Steve Smith certainly had them.

I've got no problem looking at Moss's game logs for 2005, but perhaps you should look at the game logs for the 30 or so "consistent" receivers you have ranked in front of him.

 

[Yitbos69]

I have S. Moss in a Keeper league and his value is not high right now. I have tried to do a couple of trades with him and had very little interest.

I put his 2006 #'s at 1200/8

If he can put up those #'s his stock will go up next year

I don't worry about Moss or his new WR teammates

If Brunell goes down the skins as a whole are in trouble

healthy Brunell=good year for Moss

 

[Holy Schneikes]

For fun, I just looked up NFL receivers since 1960 (thanks Doug) who have put up seasons as good as or better than Moss's 1483 yards last year.

The list:

Rice

Bruce

Harrison

Holt

Herman Moore

Jimmy Smith

Randy Moss

Irvin

Rod Smith

David Boston

Rob Moore

Steve Smith

Roy Green

Robert Brooks

Stanley Morgan

Brett Perriman

That's it. How many chumps are on that list? It's mostly HOFers/future HOFers, sprinkled with some consistently excellent receivers, and only ONE 1 hit wonder (Boston). EVERYONE on that list had multiple 1000 yard seasons (including Boston), many of them had at least 5 or 6.

Another thing I thought of:

People are talking about the new offense and how it will change things for Moss. Here's a scenario for you:

Gibbs: "Welcome Al, we expect big things with the new offense."

Saunders: "Thanks. Great to be here. Any ground-rules I should know about?"

Gibbs: "No, not really. But we do have a nifty WR screen that seems to work pretty well for us."

Saunders: "Yeah, I noticed that. Seems like even when that Moss kid is double covered he'll break a long one or two every game. It's like no one can tackle him in space."

Gibbs: "I know what you mean. Think maybe we should keep that one in the playbook at least until someone in the league figures out how to stop it?"

------------------- what everyone seems to expect -----------------------

Saunders: "Naa, I'd rather throw to Brandon LLoyd - I'm a big believer in flipping coins to see if a receiver might catch the ball."

------------------- what Saunders would really say -----------------------

Sunders: "Yeah coach, no reason to fix what ain't broke there huh? We might try a few different things in the passing game, but we will absolutely get Moss the ball in space no matter what. Heck, I made Eddie Kennison look good - what do you think I can do with Moss?".

 

[Bojang0301]

Wimer gave a good explination... Holy Schneikes gave a better one. I feel more comfortable with having Moss as my no.1 guy on my dynasty unit now.

 

[Couch Potato]

People are talking about the new offense and how it will change things for Moss. Here's a scenario for you:

Gibbs: "Welcome Al, we expect big things with the new offense."

Saunders: "Thanks. Great to be here. Any ground-rules I should know about?"

Gibbs: "No, not really. But we do have a nifty WR screen that seems to work pretty well for us."

Saunders: "Yeah, I noticed that. Seems like even when that Moss kid is double covered he'll break a long one or two every game. It's like no one can tackle him in space."

Gibbs: "I know what you mean. Think maybe we should keep that one in the playbook at least until someone in the league figures out how to stop it?"

------------------- what everyone seems to expect -----------------------

Saunders: "Naa, I'd rather throw to Brandon LLoyd - I'm a big believer in flipping coins to see if a receiver might catch the ball."

------------------- what Saunders would really say -----------------------

Sunders: "Yeah coach, no reason to fix what ain't broke there huh? We might try a few different things in the passing game, but we will absolutely get Moss the ball in space no matter what. Heck, I made Eddie Kennison look good - what do you think I can do with Moss?".

------------------- what I'd love to see them say -----------------------Saunders: "I don't know. What do you think Spurrier would do?"

(next they look at each other for a second and then laugh uncontrollably for 10 minutes)

 

[joffer]

this scenario is an interesting case for Herman's WR matrix article.

Last year Washington was a B grade offense, with a go-to-guy, and run oriented. WR1 average rank is 8. Moss's was 3.

Let's say next year the offense grade stays the same, and the WR distribution becomes more "typical". WR1 average is 23. Again, 32 seems too low.

 

[hacman]

I salute you for going against the grain. But it is for this very reason that I have abstained from posting my rankings, as I have guys slotted all over the map and could not bear to endure the grilling and justification I would have to endure to answer to the masses.

LOL. And yet it is yours I'd love to see more than just about anyone else's, because I know they'll be all over the map and probably in the right places on that map.I first caught a glimpse of the talents of a guy that called himself Anarchy a few years ago when he set me straight on Warrick Dunn. I had to swallow hard and admit he was right or I'd probably still be clinging to Duckett hope; after that I started really paying attention to his opinions. I became a big fan of Anarchy, who became David Yudkin through the power of staffmember status, and I continue to be. If this sounds like sucking up, so be it if it'll get me an emailed copy of those super secret rankings.

Big wuss, not wanting to endure answering to the lowly masses. Pfffft.

I actually had a heart to heart with Dodds about this, and we went back and forth about what to do or not to do. He suggested that I should submit my rankings and write an article explaning the whys and why nots to have as a record so when people all went HUH???? and ran to the message board there would not be a need to answer 10 pages of questions.That way when people saw "Kitna, Jon" at the top of my QB rankings, there would be less pandemonium in the streets. (For the record, I DO NOT have Kitna #1 on my list, although I venture that he is higher on mine than any other staff member.)

Yudkin needs to stop hoarding his projections. I like Dodds’ solution myself and I promise not to badger him with silly questions.If you look through last year’s FBG mag (particularly the Undervalued/Overvalued section) like I did a few months ago, you’ll see the guy was uncanny with his picks and explanations.

Yudkin is the truth! Yudkin/Bloom in '08!

 

[David Yudkin]

Yudkin needs to stop hoarding his projections. I like Dodds’ solution myself and I promise not to badger him with silly questions.

If you look through last year’s FBG mag (particularly the Undervalued/Overvalued section) like I did a few months ago, you’ll see the guy was uncanny with his picks and explanations.

Yudkin is the truth! Yudkin/Bloom in '08!

Since you brought it up . . . I did hit on some of the value/overrated guys last year. (Not really patting myself on the back, just thought it was interesting to look back at it now.)Undervalued:

Jake Plummer, QB 14 - Plummer ranked as the #5 fantasy QB last year, and the Broncos return the core of their offense and all of their main receiving threats. Denver also has the luxury of playing in the high scoring AFC West and ranked in the top ten in almost every team passing category in 2004. Given that Plummer is currently getting drafted almost ten spots lower than where he ranked last year and with healthy RB receiving options out of the backfield, it is unlikely that Plummer will lose 20% of his production—which is basically what would have had to happen to rank as the #14 QB last year.

Kurt Warner, QB 24 - After years of struggling to return to form, Kurt Warner may finally have found the right environment to stage a comeback. Warner had more TD passes in the last month of the 2001 season (14) than he has had in the past three seasons (ten). While Warner likely will not return to his glory days with the Rams, he could still be a productive QB. Arizona has two very talented WR in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, and head coach Dennis Green developed a passing attack that ranked top ten in points scored, passing yards, and passing TDs seven times in Minnesota. Warner is already listed at the top of the QB depth chart. With six divisional games against bottom ten defenses, there are plenty of reasons to think Warner could perform better than the 24th best fantasy QB.

Mike Anderson, RB 48 - Anderson may not end the season as the #1 RB in Denver, but for now he’s still listed as #1 on the depth chart. There is no sound reason for that, of course, given Anderson’s age, return from injury, and limited role the last few seasons and a younger, faster Tatum Bell on the roster. But on average Anderson is only requiring an 11th round investment to acquire him, and we’ve seen how well the Denver system has supported players like Anderson, Gary, and Droughns. Last year, the #48 RB had 536 total yards and 2 TDs.

Rudi Johnson, RB 15 - Johnson ranked as the #8 RB last year, and Cincinnati’s offense is on the rise. Johnson excelled last year facing the toughest schedule of all RBs, playing ten games against top ten rushing defenses. He ranked in top ten in the league in rushes, rushing yards, rushing TDs, and yards from scrimmage. With what could only be considered an easier schedule and a new long-term contract, it’s easy to see a happy and healthy Johnson doing as well as better in 2005.

Mewelde Moore, RB 41 - Moore averaged 179 total yards per game in his three starts last year and has looked great in the preseason. Onterrio Smith is gone for the season and Michael Bennett’s knack for injury has been well documented. Many of the Vikings coaches have apparently stated that they think Moore is the best back on the team. At some point this season, there is a decent chance that Moore will be the starter in Minnesota, and finding a potential starting RB in the 10th round is a fantasy steal.

Warrick Dunn, RB 28 - For starters, Dunn has never ranked as low as his current ADP. He’s been a top 20 RB four times (#15 last year). Since coming to the Falcons, he’s averaged 12.1 fantasy ppg, and nothing has changed in Atlanta to suggest that he will do any worse this year. At his normal production rate, Dunn should again rank in the top 15-20 RB provided he stays healthy, and he’s played in at least 15 games six of eight years in the league.

Donald Driver, WR 20 - Driver has rankled as the #10 WR twice in three years and was injured in the middle. Javon Walker seems to be the darling of fantasy football owners, but Driver actually out produced Walker over the remainder of the season (and playoff game) after Walker went nuts against the Colts (11-200-3) in Week 3. The Packers lost 2 starters on the OL, Ahman Green may be on the decline, and Green Bay’s defense made very few improvements and will again have problems keeping the score down. Add it all up, and the Packers should again be airing it out and Driver should be a key beneficiary.

Eddie Kennison, WR 35 - Eddie Kennison ranked as the 36th, 24th, and 18th best fantasy wide receiver the past three years—yet his ADP is in 35. The Chiefs offense and Kennison have improved each year since the arrival of head coach #### Vermeil—and there is nothing that would suggest a sudden demise to the offense or Kennison’s production. The Chiefs have not signed any notable free agent wide receivers and did not invest heavy in the NFL draft at WR either. All signs point to another season as a great value pick in fantasy football drafts for the upcoming season.

Overvalued:

Michael Vickl, QB 4 - Vick may be the most exciting player in the NFL, but until he starts posting better passing stats, he will struggle to produce as a top five QB. When Vick ranked as the #3 QB in 2002, he had over 600 more passing yards and a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio. Even playing in all 16 games last year, Vick only exceeded 200 passing yards on only three occasions. Vick may put up RB2 rushing totals, but until he can produce even as an average QB, his chances of outranking his draft position will be slim.

Chad Pennington, QB 16 - Pennington has averaged 213 passing yards and 1.2 TD per game since becoming a starter. That works out to 3,400 yards passing and 19 TD over a 16-game season. By comparison, the #16 QB last year had over 3,500 passing yards and 20 TD. However, Pennington has yet to play a full season, is recovering from shoulder surgery, never was a great deep passer, and is being asked to throw deep patterns even though his game is better suited for shorter routes. Add in a new OC that historically has run the ball into the ground, and Pennington loses a lot of luster. Things would really have to fall right for Pennington to rank 16th or better.

Willis McGahee, RB 5 - McGahee stepped in for Travis Henry last year and had a huge second half of the season. There have been several players in recent seasons (Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, and Michael Bennett to name a few) that posted great numbers over the latter parts of seasons that did not do markedly better over the course of a full season. For McGahee to rank as high as he’s projected, we will need an extensive workload (the Top 5 RB last year averaged 385 touches last year) and maintain the phenomenal scoring pace as well (13 TD in 12 starts). Given his injury history, one has to wonder if the Bills will allocate such heavy a workload to McGahee.

Andre Johnson, WR 8 - No one doubts that Andre Johnson is talented and could put up some solid numbers. The problem is that he plays on a team with a conservative game plan and a heavy focus on the run. Johnson slumped to just 449 receiving yards and 2 TD over the second half of the season when the Texans took to moving the ball on the ground. Even with close to 200 additional receiving yards and 2 more TD compared to 2003, Johnson ranked only one slot higher (23rd in 2003 vs. 22nd in 2004). A lot would have to change in Houston for Johnson to rank as the #7 WR, making the selection of AJ at that slot a poor value pick.

Roy Williams, WR 14 - Detroit has a ton of weapons on offense and a QB that up until now has not done a whole lot. Everyone assumes that Roy Williams will be the primary target, but we have no idea if that’s the way things will play out. With Kevin Jones’ emergence over the second half of last year, Williams averaged 52 yards per game vs 66 with Jones out or limited due to injury. With a healthy Charles Rogers, rookie Mike Williams, Kevin Johnson, and Marcus Pollard all in the mix, Roy Williams stands to lose out by having to share.

Drew Bennett, WR 17 - Bennett had 100 fantasy points over a three game stretch and 97 fantasy points in his other 13 games. Basically, he was the league’s top WR in 3 weeks but the #33 ranked WR the rest of the time. His hot streak came with Billy Volek at QB but Steve McNair returns as the starter. Other than Bennett, the Titans do not currently have another WR on their roster that has ever had more than 25 receptions. Teams adjusted last year after his outburst, and he should see double coverage on a regular basis this season.

Randy Moss, WR 1 - Moss switches teams, loses an All Pro QB, goes to an outdoor arena with grass, and gets to play for a coach that loves to run the ball across the goal line. Moss had 8 TD last year from inside the 5-yard line, and he should see a dip in his TD total playing in Oakland. While people will point to the AFC West as the shootout division, the Raiders schedule overall is not an easy one. Moss will likely still be a Top 5 WR, but I’ve seen him going earlier in some drafts than ever before, and that’s asking for trouble given what the numbers, external factors, and schedule point to.

Jeb Putzier, TE 12 - Putzier got a tidy contract offer from the Jets and somehow even got the Broncos to match. The problem, though, is that Putzier has been struggling in camp while Stephen Alexander has been extremely productive and has overtaken Putzier on the TE depth chart. NFL backup tight ends just don’t produce at a starting fantasy TE level. Putzier ranked as the #12 TE last year, and even if he somehow got back to splitting time 50/50, it would be next to impossible for him to match last year’s output.

Deep Sleepers:

Gus Frerotte, QB 37 - The Dolphins are still exploring starting QB options, and A.J. Feeley has been mediocre to date. The Dolphins offense has to be better than last year’s, and with a better ground game, David Boston, Marty Booker, and Randy McMichael as targets, Frerotte could serve as a viable fantasy QB2 option (although not a great one) if he were to win the starting job.

Drew Bledsoe, QB 25 - We know that head coach Bill Parcells likes to start veteran QBs. What few realize is that Parcells-coached teams have ranked in the top half of the league in passing yards 12 times in 17 seasons. That includes two Top 5 seasons in passing yards with a Parcells/Bledsoe pairing in the 90s. Bledsoe’s skills have eroded some since then, and the Cowboys don’t appear to have the best set of WRs, but Jason Witten alone could help Bledsoe approach or even crack the Top 20.

Chris Perry, RB 68 - Rudi Johnson had 361 of the Bengals’ 392 rushing attempts last season (92%), which is a very high percentage. That may have been due to the injury of first-round pick Chris Perry. The Bengal’s RB receiving totals also have fallen the past several seasons, and with an offense on the verge of improving by leaps and bounds this year, some of that production should go to Perry.

Amani Toomer, WR 51 - Amani Toomer ranked in the Top 20 four times and ranked in the Top 30 five consecutive seasons. Even with a single TD reception this year, he will improve upon the shutout he pitched in the TD category in 2004. Toomer ranked 53rd with 0 TDs, missing a game, and a rookie QB inserted at mid-season. Expect Manning to improve, Plaxico Burress to open up some space, and Toomer rank as a viable fantasy WR3.

Terry Glenn, WR 66 - In his first full season in Dallas, Glenn ranked 27th. In his three healthy seasons in New England with Drew Bledsoe, Glenn ranked in the Top 25 each season. A healthy Glenn could again rank in the Top 30, and getting WR3 production from a player not even in the Top 60 would be a great value. Glenn could be a great bye week fill-in or even start if needed.

Marty Booker, WR 76 - Even with no one else as an offensive threat AT ALL in Miami last year, Booker ranked as the #56 wide receiver. Add in a new coach, a new system, a RB upgrade, the return of David Boston, potentially a new QB, and an overall infusion of life in the offense and Booker should be a WR worth rostering as a spot starter, bye week fill-in, or for overall WR depth.

Ben Watson, TE 23 - Watson was a first round draft pick last year but suffered a season ending injury early on. Watson has wide receiver speed and superhuman strength, making him almost impossible to cover. Look for Watson to become much more active in the Pats’ offense as the season progresses. By the latter part of the season, he could even merit consideration as a fantasy starter if he were to take over as the team’s starting TE.

(BTW, I did miss on some guys, too--these were the ones that worked out by a pretty fair margin.)