Santonio Holmes draft stock/value (1 Viewer)

[Michael Fox Fan]

How did his value go up tonight? Because he had 1 long catch early on basically a screen pass, another long pass in the 4th because the defense botched the play, and then finally had one superb TD catch that will never be repeated again?

I'd sell high if he's anywhere near worth a 3rd rounder.

He was able to come through with 9 receptions when Ward appeared unable to be more than a diversion. I love Ward and will never believe he was 100% for today and Pittsburgh needed Holmes to step up and that is what he did.

That's the whole point. He had 9 receptions - because Ward was playing on one leg. I really don't see how this game should dramatically change anyone's perception of Holmes - or Ward.

How about because Ward's getting older and Santonio's getting better after three years in the league?We're talking dynasty here and skills aren't static they progress and digress across a career.

Additionally, it shouldn't be ignored that Holmes has definitely earned Ben's trust after tonight. An important point to remember as Ben scrambles around with his schoolyard style of play looking for someone to throw to.

:( Because of that trust I would expect Holmes to be the primary target more regularly now.

Based on one game? Man, I wish I owned Holmes right now.

 

[Da Guru]

I agree. I think Santonio is one of the more dangerous guys in the NFL, especially after the catch. That said, the Steelers don't give him enough chances to be an elite WR. Maybe next year they will, but with their tradition of running the football, I doubt it.

I have always like Holmes, but Pitt plays in lousy weather and is a run first team. If they played in a dome/warm weather Holmes would skyrocket in value with plays like yesterday.

 

[JPeso]

How did his value go up tonight? Because he had 1 long catch early on basically a screen pass, another long pass in the 4th because the defense botched the play, and then finally had one superb TD catch that will never be repeated again?

I'd sell high if he's anywhere near worth a 3rd rounder.

He was able to come through with 9 receptions when Ward appeared unable to be more than a diversion. I love Ward and will never believe he was 100% for today and Pittsburgh needed Holmes to step up and that is what he did.

That's the whole point. He had 9 receptions - because Ward was playing on one leg. I really don't see how this game should dramatically change anyone's perception of Holmes - or Ward.

How about because Ward's getting older and Santonio's getting better after three years in the league?We're talking dynasty here and skills aren't static they progress and digress across a career.

Additionally, it shouldn't be ignored that Holmes has definitely earned Ben's trust after tonight. An important point to remember as Ben scrambles around with his schoolyard style of play looking for someone to throw to.

Because of that trust I would expect Holmes to be the primary target more regularly now.

Based on one game? Man, I wish I owned Holmes right now.

It cannot be overlooked that Ben had zero time to throw this year. The gameplan was not to get Holmes involved early and often, as it should have been. Holmes was sent deep, and Ben was forced to check down to Heath, Hines, and Me. Moore quite often this season. Hopefully they realize Holmes IS NOT a one dimensional player, and as such, get him the ball more often.

 

[fantasyplayer]

I believe the increase in his perceived value will exceed the increase in his actual value based on last night's game. I think his actual value is closer to the WR20 range, which is a stretch in the 3rd round.

 

[lyon812]

Branch might have been productive if he could stay on the field. Holmes isn't nearly as injury prone. Ganja-prone, maybe, but..

 

[PranksterJD]

Deion Branch was the first thing that came to my mind too.

Holmes is far better than Branch. He was for sure a buy low guy before the playoffs. He didn't get the ball near enough this season, partly due to gameplan, but more importantly due to the fact that Ben had zero time to throw. The playoffs were the first time the Steelers didn't primarily send Holmes deep, and it paid off. Let this kid get the ball in space some. If corners are not going to let him beat them deep, and give him a large cushion, then give him the ball right away and let him make plays.

I had planned on grabbing him in the 4th as a "steal" this offseason, but looks like I will have to now spend a 3rd to lock him up.

onOh no you didn't. Show me ANY statistics that show Holmes has equalled Branch's production. He hasn't. He has more potential than Branch ever had, but yesterday's game was a breakout performance from somee who has teetered on underperforming since he was drafted. Holmes will pull a Branch and follow the money to another (unsuspecting) team within two years.

Lost me on this one man. Other than Branch's "career year" of 998 yards, every year of Santonio's career has been better than any year of Branch's, in almost every category. Its not remarkably better, but he has at minimum equalled Branch's output.

 

[ShaqAttaq]

Thanks, this is helpful for evaluating Holmes' future value.

almost as much as this

Oh, and I traded for him in dynasty at about noon today! I know, no one cares about my team but

 

[greyone]

Santonio's value will falsely be inflated ala the Nations property value circa the bubble busting.

 

[benbadman]

assuming Hines Ward is done, and is a marginal player after all these surgeries (big if?).. i'd still see Holmes as a low end WR2, better WR3 option. 3rd round FF pick for a WR who wont get 80-90 catches is a waste. holmes was a bust this year as a 5th-7th rd pick. now he has a good super bowl, and he's a top10 WR---Deion Branch anyone?

Goes from a 6-7th round pick in drafts to a 3rd round pick.

In the last 10 minutes I have received 3 offers from different teams in my dynasty league. Sell high or hold?

I'll let someone else take him with their 3rd and laugh.

To each his own. By the way your avatar is offensive.

His icon would be better if it said BHO's before HO's.his middle initial is H for Hussein, not R

 

[Holland Freeze]

How did his value go up tonight? Because he had 1 long catch early on basically a screen pass, another long pass in the 4th because the defense botched the play, and then finally had one superb TD catch that will never be repeated again?

I'd sell high if he's anywhere near worth a 3rd rounder.

He was able to come through with 9 receptions when Ward appeared unable to be more than a diversion. I love Ward and will never believe he was 100% for today and Pittsburgh needed Holmes to step up and that is what he did.

That's the whole point. He had 9 receptions - because Ward was playing on one leg. I really don't see how this game should dramatically change anyone's perception of Holmes - or Ward.

How about because Ward's getting older and Santonio's getting better after three years in the league?We're talking dynasty here and skills aren't static they progress and digress across a career.

Additionally, it shouldn't be ignored that Holmes has definitely earned Ben's trust after tonight. An important point to remember as Ben scrambles around with his schoolyard style of play looking for someone to throw to.

Because of that trust I would expect Holmes to be the primary target more regularly now.

Based on one game? Man, I wish I owned Holmes right now.

I did not realize Holmes had not played in the NFL before??? If you don't think Holmes has what it takes is one thing, if not then this was the game where the #1 guy was there in body only and Holmes showed, those who were watching, what they can expect in the future. I am not saying Holmes is suddenly a top tier WR but hopefully no one still expects Ward to be either. I expect you will see a shift in Pit similar to what occurred in Indy with the passing of the torch from Harrison to Wayne. That is not saying Ward will suddenly disappear or become a non-factor but he is being overtaken by the teams youth. To simply ignore this and not bump up Holmes value accordingly would appear short sighted in my opinion (again unless you do not think he has what it takes). If you wait until he is firmly entrenched as the go to guy you have missed the boat - I thought the whole idea was to stay ahead of the curve.

 

[roadking95th]

I know, as a Holmes owner, that I am more confident in him. He should be a solid WR2 next year. In smaller leagues, I would probably prefer someone who is more consistent for that position, but it also depends on when you draft him. Grabbing him as the #10WR might be risky, but if one can get him at #15+WR the reward could be big.

Right now I would put Holmes at #10 for the high and #20 for the low.

 

[thatguy]

I think he'll probably produce as a WR2 next season but due to his inconsistency will probably avoid him unless I can get him at WR3 cost.

 

[FUBAR]

I think he'll probably produce as a WR2 next season but due to his inconsistency will probably avoid him unless I can get him at WR3 cost.

I currently have him in a rotation with Braylon as my #3, but inconsistency is a problem, or at least it has been. I think he'll be more consistent if he has his head on straight.

 

[greyone]

As a frustrated Big Ben owner 2 seasons ago let me share my thoughts.

Big Ben rarely put up great qb numbers through the quarters 1-3. Usual 150-200 yards and TD. And like clock work in the 4th quarter a drive or two would place him in the 2td 200+ passing yards range. Those 300 yard 3 TD games were a pipe dream.

At the end of the day I was semi please with his production. During the games I was pissed. Watching other qbs. hit the 2td mark by halftime while Ben snailed his way to 125 yards.

Santonio will not be a wr2 next season. Maybe his year end production may be close. But his week to week points scored will suck.

 

[David Yudkin]

Holmes has totaled 172-2862-18 in 48 career regular and post season games. That works out to 57-954-6 over a full 16 game season, although Holmes has played a full season once in his three seasons. That works out to 131 fantasy points on average which in most years sneaks him into the Top 25. IMO, his actual value hasn't changed any, but I suppose there may be someone in some leagues that may fall in love with him and might take him in the Top 15 range.

 

[Avery]

Holmes has totaled 172-2862-18 in 48 career regular and post season games. That works out to 57-954-6 over a full 16 game season, although Holmes has played a full season once in his three seasons. That works out to 131 fantasy points on average which in most years sneaks him into the Top 25. IMO, his actual value hasn't changed any, but I suppose there may be someone in some leagues that may fall in love with him and might take him in the Top 15 range.

So reasoning is that his value hadn't changed because of his stats over his first three years. Players do get better and the surrounding cast around them changes. Ben is improving, Holmes is improving, Ward is getting older, the offensive line will likely be improved next year. How does that not help Holmes' value?IMO, the flawed logic I'm seeing is, "because he hasn't been great therefore he won't be great." The result may well turn out to be accurate, but the logic is nonetheless flawed. I believe there are a lot of frustrated and disappointed Holmes owners posting here.

 

[David Yudkin]

Holmes has totaled 172-2862-18 in 48 career regular and post season games. That works out to 57-954-6 over a full 16 game season, although Holmes has played a full season once in his three seasons. That works out to 131 fantasy points on average which in most years sneaks him into the Top 25. IMO, his actual value hasn't changed any, but I suppose there may be someone in some leagues that may fall in love with him and might take him in the Top 15 range.

So reasoning is that his value hadn't changed because of his stats over his first three years. Players do get better and the surrounding cast around them changes. Ben is improving, Holmes is improving, Ward is getting older, the offensive line will likely be improved next year. How does that not help Holmes' value?IMO, the flawed logic I'm seeing is, "because he hasn't been great therefore he won't be great." The result may well turn out to be accurate, but the logic is nonetheless flawed. I believe there are a lot of frustrated and disappointed Holmes owners posting here.

The logic is that one game does not a new career path make. That's been Holmes' production curve to date. Could it go up? Sure. Taking a 3-year sample size and averaging the numbers is a common practice conducted by many.All your arguments are based on what ifs, and there are negative what ifs out there for those that want to go there. What if Ben struggles to put up big TD numbers again. What if Holmes has injury or legal issues. What if Ward stays healthy. What if the Steelers go back to a pounding running game. Whati f the defense is even better next year and they pass less.That's why the numbers are the numbers, as they say. We know where he is now and where he's been. We also know the situation he's in, the environment he's plaing in (bad weather the end of each year), and the style of coaching/offensive scheme he's in. Those are not likely to change any time soon, so I would be hard pressed to take an ultra high side approach to where he will rank given that at this point he's still a WR2 on his team.I'm not saying he can't or won't do better, but I would not draft him in the semeingly upside only spot that he is getting discussed at in terms of draft position for next year . . . at least the day after the SB.

 

[Avery]

Holmes has totaled 172-2862-18 in 48 career regular and post season games. That works out to 57-954-6 over a full 16 game season, although Holmes has played a full season once in his three seasons. That works out to 131 fantasy points on average which in most years sneaks him into the Top 25. IMO, his actual value hasn't changed any, but I suppose there may be someone in some leagues that may fall in love with him and might take him in the Top 15 range.

So reasoning is that his value hadn't changed because of his stats over his first three years. Players do get better and the surrounding cast around them changes. Ben is improving, Holmes is improving, Ward is getting older, the offensive line will likely be improved next year. How does that not help Holmes' value?IMO, the flawed logic I'm seeing is, "because he hasn't been great therefore he won't be great." The result may well turn out to be accurate, but the logic is nonetheless flawed. I believe there are a lot of frustrated and disappointed Holmes owners posting here.

The logic is that one game does not a new career path make. That's been Holmes' production curve to date. Could it go up? Sure. Taking a 3-year sample size and averaging the numbers is a common practice conducted by many.All your arguments are based on what ifs, and there are negative what ifs out there for those that want to go there. What if Ben struggles to put up big TD numbers again. What if Holmes has injury or legal issues. What if Ward stays healthy. What if the Steelers go back to a pounding running game. Whati f the defense is even better next year and they pass less.

That's why the numbers are the numbers, as they say. We know where he is now and where he's been. We also know the situation he's in, the environment he's plaing in (bad weather the end of each year), and the style of coaching/offensive scheme he's in. Those are not likely to change any time soon, so I would be hard pressed to take an ultra high side approach to where he will rank given that at this point he's still a WR2 on his team.

I'm not saying he can't or won't do better, but I would not draft him in the semeingly upside only spot that he is getting discussed at in terms of draft position for next year . . . at least the day after the SB.

As much as may here want to apply statistics and numbers to make predicting future football performances straightforward, the truth is that there are so many unpredictable ineligibles involved that we must look at the information outside of the numbers to try as best we can to predict which players are going to break out. After all, the game here is not look at stats and see who has been doing well, that's the easy past. The challenge is finding the players who are about to break out, and the past performance numbers don't always show that.So now that it looks like Holmes is getting better (as many including staff predicted), Ben is getting better (as many including staff predicted), and Holmes looks poised to take over the WR1 position (as many including staff predicted) and now we should discount these intangible observations because he hasn't done it before?

So that all the statistic aficionados understand what I'm saying: year (N+1) performance does not necessary equal year N performance.



Edit to add: To clarify, I'm not saying that Holmes value rising to due entirely to his Superbowl performance. I'm just saying it's a highlight to look at for trying to predict increasing future success.

 

[stewartcjae]

Holmes has totaled 172-2862-18 in 48 career regular and post season games. That works out to 57-954-6 over a full 16 game season, although Holmes has played a full season once in his three seasons. That works out to 131 fantasy points on average which in most years sneaks him into the Top 25. IMO, his actual value hasn't changed any, but I suppose there may be someone in some leagues that may fall in love with him and might take him in the Top 15 range.

So reasoning is that his value hadn't changed because of his stats over his first three years. Players do get better and the surrounding cast around them changes. Ben is improving, Holmes is improving, Ward is getting older, the offensive line will likely be improved next year. How does that not help Holmes' value?IMO, the flawed logic I'm seeing is, "because he hasn't been great therefore he won't be great." The result may well turn out to be accurate, but the logic is nonetheless flawed. I believe there are a lot of frustrated and disappointed Holmes owners posting here.

No more flawed then "He had a great Superbowl, therefore he will be great next year" or " He has earned Ben's trust after this game". Did Ben tell you or any reporter that? After years of playing together, pretty sure Ben's view of him did not change because of 9 catches. He probably already trusted him.IMO he will have better stats next year then this year. I would love to have him as my #3, would be ok as my #2.....would be scared if he was my #1. He was #32wr in my league this year. #20 the year before. Just do not think enough things are going to change for the Team (run first, D, ward) for him to have a huge increase in production.

 

[az_prof]

I would sell high. His 2008 performance is a better indicator of future performance than one playoff game; but, many people have that game in mind now and will overpay to get him, assuming that he will explode in 2009. He is a good player but I don't think he will ever be a fantasy WR1 and is a borderline fantasy WR2.

 

[az_prof]

Holmes has totaled 172-2862-18 in 48 career regular and post season games. That works out to 57-954-6 over a full 16 game season, although Holmes has played a full season once in his three seasons. That works out to 131 fantasy points on average which in most years sneaks him into the Top 25. IMO, his actual value hasn't changed any, but I suppose there may be someone in some leagues that may fall in love with him and might take him in the Top 15 range.

So reasoning is that his value hadn't changed because of his stats over his first three years. Players do get better and the surrounding cast around them changes. Ben is improving, Holmes is improving, Ward is getting older, the offensive line will likely be improved next year. How does that not help Holmes' value?IMO, the flawed logic I'm seeing is, "because he hasn't been great therefore he won't be great." The result may well turn out to be accurate, but the logic is nonetheless flawed. I believe there are a lot of frustrated and disappointed Holmes owners posting here.

The logic is that one game does not a new career path make. That's been Holmes' production curve to date. Could it go up? Sure. Taking a 3-year sample size and averaging the numbers is a common practice conducted by many.All your arguments are based on what ifs, and there are negative what ifs out there for those that want to go there. What if Ben struggles to put up big TD numbers again. What if Holmes has injury or legal issues. What if Ward stays healthy. What if the Steelers go back to a pounding running game. Whati f the defense is even better next year and they pass less.

That's why the numbers are the numbers, as they say. We know where he is now and where he's been. We also know the situation he's in, the environment he's plaing in (bad weather the end of each year), and the style of coaching/offensive scheme he's in. Those are not likely to change any time soon, so I would be hard pressed to take an ultra high side approach to where he will rank given that at this point he's still a WR2 on his team.

I'm not saying he can't or won't do better, but I would not draft him in the semeingly upside only spot that he is getting discussed at in terms of draft position for next year . . . at least the day after the SB.

As much as may here want to apply statistics and numbers to make predicting future football performances straightforward, the truth is that there are so many unpredictable ineligibles involved that we must look at the information outside of the numbers to try as best we can to predict which players are going to break out. After all, the game here is not look at stats and see who has been doing well, that's the easy past. The challenge is finding the players who are about to break out, and the past performance numbers don't always show that.So now that it looks like Holmes is getting better (as many including staff predicted), Ben is getting better (as many including staff predicted), and Holmes looks poised to take over the WR1 position (as many including staff predicted) and now we should discount these intangible observations because he hasn't done it before?

So that all the statistic aficionados understand what I'm saying: year (N+1) performance does not necessary equal year N performance.



Edit to add: To clarify, I'm not saying that Holmes value rising to due entirely to his Superbowl performance. I'm just saying it's a highlight to look at for trying to predict increasing future success.

He's "getting better"....based on one game performance? Because his 2008 season was not as good as his 2007 season. He regressed.

 

[Avery]

Holmes has totaled 172-2862-18 in 48 career regular and post season games. That works out to 57-954-6 over a full 16 game season, although Holmes has played a full season once in his three seasons. That works out to 131 fantasy points on average which in most years sneaks him into the Top 25. IMO, his actual value hasn't changed any, but I suppose there may be someone in some leagues that may fall in love with him and might take him in the Top 15 range.

So reasoning is that his value hadn't changed because of his stats over his first three years. Players do get better and the surrounding cast around them changes. Ben is improving, Holmes is improving, Ward is getting older, the offensive line will likely be improved next year. How does that not help Holmes' value?IMO, the flawed logic I'm seeing is, "because he hasn't been great therefore he won't be great." The result may well turn out to be accurate, but the logic is nonetheless flawed. I believe there are a lot of frustrated and disappointed Holmes owners posting here.

The logic is that one game does not a new career path make. That's been Holmes' production curve to date. Could it go up? Sure. Taking a 3-year sample size and averaging the numbers is a common practice conducted by many.All your arguments are based on what ifs, and there are negative what ifs out there for those that want to go there. What if Ben struggles to put up big TD numbers again. What if Holmes has injury or legal issues. What if Ward stays healthy. What if the Steelers go back to a pounding running game. Whati f the defense is even better next year and they pass less.

That's why the numbers are the numbers, as they say. We know where he is now and where he's been. We also know the situation he's in, the environment he's plaing in (bad weather the end of each year), and the style of coaching/offensive scheme he's in. Those are not likely to change any time soon, so I would be hard pressed to take an ultra high side approach to where he will rank given that at this point he's still a WR2 on his team.

I'm not saying he can't or won't do better, but I would not draft him in the semeingly upside only spot that he is getting discussed at in terms of draft position for next year . . . at least the day after the SB.

As much as may here want to apply statistics and numbers to make predicting future football performances straightforward, the truth is that there are so many unpredictable ineligibles involved that we must look at the information outside of the numbers to try as best we can to predict which players are going to break out. After all, the game here is not look at stats and see who has been doing well, that's the easy past. The challenge is finding the players who are about to break out, and the past performance numbers don't always show that.So now that it looks like Holmes is getting better (as many including staff predicted), Ben is getting better (as many including staff predicted), and Holmes looks poised to take over the WR1 position (as many including staff predicted) and now we should discount these intangible observations because he hasn't done it before?

So that all the statistic aficionados understand what I'm saying: year (N+1) performance does not necessary equal year N performance.



Edit to add: To clarify, I'm not saying that Holmes value rising to due entirely to his Superbowl performance. I'm just saying it's a highlight to look at for trying to predict increasing future success.

He's "getting better"....based on one game performance? Because his 2008 season was not as good as his 2007 season. He regressed.

I give up.No matter how many times I say that I am not basing the thought that Holmes is improving and is not necessarily a "sell high" based on one game people seem to focus on the one game.

I believe he is a young improving player.

I believe that Ben is a young improving player.

I believe that Ward is an older player on the decline.

I believe that the offensive line will get better.

Holmes may never play as well as he did in the Superbowl again but Jesus people, get your head out of the stats for a second and take a look at the big picture.

Maybe it's a gut feeling, but it isn't a gut feeling out of nowhere. There is good reason to believe that good things are to come from Holmes (although I also realize that there are good reasons beyond the stats to be skeptical.) Feel free to refute that thought with the stats that he didn't put up consistent numbers this past year.

 

[Couch Potato]

For anyone who cares, Pasquino and I just now did a deal in a PPR dynasty. I sent him Holmes, he sent me Pierre Thomas. No other picks/players involved. He needed a WR more, I only had Marshawn Lynch as a viable RB and needed to shore up that position (Maroney, Hillis, Torain the others).

 

[stewartcjae]

I give up.

No matter how many times I say that I am not basing the thought that Holmes is improving and is not necessarily a "sell high" based on one game people seem to focus on the one game.

1. I believe he is a young improving player.

2. I believe that Ben is a young improving player.

3. I believe that Ward is an older player on the decline.

4. I believe that the offensive line will get better.

Holmes may never play as well as he did in the Superbowl again but Jesus people, get your head out of the stats for a second and take a look at the big picture.

Maybe it's a gut feeling, but it isn't a gut feeling out of nowhere. There is good reason to believe that good things are to come from Holmes (although I also realize that there are good reasons beyond the stats to be skeptical.) Feel free to refute that thought with the stats that he didn't put up consistent numbers this past year.

Past performance (stats) is part of the "big picture". If he goes off for 1400yds and 15tds next year and I told you he wasn't as good of a receiver as he was in 2008, first thing you would do is show me his stats.1. What makes you think he is improving? He looked no better this year then he did last year to me. A year older does not mean a year better. He might have peaked as a player (and he is pretty good), He could get better but i have not seen anything to prove that he is improving.

2. I agree, before this year I thought Ben was a bit overrated, but he impressed me this year.

3. Don't think means a great increase for Holmes. they are different receivers and run different routes. Imo Miller would see more the the balls that usually go to Holmes. Ward only had 10 more targets then Holmes did this year.

4. Based on what? Honestly do not know the situation here. Couldn't I say I believe every O line will get better?

The only reason people are bringing up the Superbowl is because that is the only evidence of why you think the way you do. Would you have posted this same post if he went for 2 catches for 20yds?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Good discussion.

He's had 3 years in the league and is only 24 (25 in March). Hines Ward is 8 years older.

Ward's in a contract year and Holmes will likely inherit the #1 WR role in 2010 at the latest.

Holmes is signed on his rookie deal thru 2010 (and likely will get extended before then, possibly this offseason).

The downside is that he regressed this year in catching under 60 balls on over 110 targets and just 5 TDs.

I think he merits Top 20 WR for Dynasty purposes.

 

[Rockchild]

IMO, I think he has more value in a non-PPR as I don't see him having 80-100 catches in a season. His value seems to be tied to TD's more than receptions. Upside of top 10-15 in non-PPR and top 20-25 in PPR.

 

[bentley]

Holmes has totaled 172-2862-18 in 48 career regular and post season games. That works out to 57-954-6 over a full 16 game season, although Holmes has played a full season once in his three seasons. That works out to 131 fantasy points on average which in most years sneaks him into the Top 25. IMO, his actual value hasn't changed any, but I suppose there may be someone in some leagues that may fall in love with him and might take him in the Top 15 range.

So reasoning is that his value hadn't changed because of his stats over his first three years. Players do get better and the surrounding cast around them changes. Ben is improving, Holmes is improving, Ward is getting older, the offensive line will likely be improved next year. How does that not help Holmes' value?IMO, the flawed logic I'm seeing is, "because he hasn't been great therefore he won't be great." The result may well turn out to be accurate, but the logic is nonetheless flawed. I believe there are a lot of frustrated and disappointed Holmes owners posting here.

The logic is that one game does not a new career path make. That's been Holmes' production curve to date. Could it go up? Sure. Taking a 3-year sample size and averaging the numbers is a common practice conducted by many.All your arguments are based on what ifs, and there are negative what ifs out there for those that want to go there. What if Ben struggles to put up big TD numbers again. What if Holmes has injury or legal issues. What if Ward stays healthy. What if the Steelers go back to a pounding running game. Whati f the defense is even better next year and they pass less.

That's why the numbers are the numbers, as they say. We know where he is now and where he's been. We also know the situation he's in, the environment he's plaing in (bad weather the end of each year), and the style of coaching/offensive scheme he's in. Those are not likely to change any time soon, so I would be hard pressed to take an ultra high side approach to where he will rank given that at this point he's still a WR2 on his team.

I'm not saying he can't or won't do better, but I would not draft him in the semeingly upside only spot that he is getting discussed at in terms of draft position for next year . . . at least the day after the SB.

As much as may here want to apply statistics and numbers to make predicting future football performances straightforward, the truth is that there are so many unpredictable ineligibles involved that we must look at the information outside of the numbers to try as best we can to predict which players are going to break out. After all, the game here is not look at stats and see who has been doing well, that's the easy past. The challenge is finding the players who are about to break out, and the past performance numbers don't always show that.So now that it looks like Holmes is getting better (as many including staff predicted), Ben is getting better (as many including staff predicted), and Holmes looks poised to take over the WR1 position (as many including staff predicted) and now we should discount these intangible observations because he hasn't done it before?

So that all the statistic aficionados understand what I'm saying: year (N+1) performance does not necessary equal year N performance.



Edit to add: To clarify, I'm not saying that Holmes value rising to due entirely to his Superbowl performance. I'm just saying it's a highlight to look at for trying to predict increasing future success.

He's "getting better"....based on one game performance? Because his 2008 season was not as good as his 2007 season. He regressed.

I give up.No matter how many times I say that I am not basing the thought that Holmes is improving and is not necessarily a "sell high" based on one game people seem to focus on the one game.

I believe he is a young improving player.

I believe that Ben is a young improving player.

I believe that Ward is an older player on the decline.

I believe that the offensive line will get better.

Holmes may never play as well as he did in the Superbowl again but Jesus people, get your head out of the stats for a second and take a look at the big picture.

Maybe it's a gut feeling, but it isn't a gut feeling out of nowhere. There is good reason to believe that good things are to come from Holmes (although I also realize that there are good reasons beyond the stats to be skeptical.) Feel free to refute that thought with the stats that he didn't put up consistent numbers this past year.

Hi Avery,Perhaps you'd like to explain the entire reason for our argument yesterday then.

Back to the topic, I don't understand how Holmes stepping up with a huge game in the Superbowl wouldn't and shouldn't raise his value, as some have suggested it shouldn't.

b

 

[Avery]

Holmes has totaled 172-2862-18 in 48 career regular and post season games. That works out to 57-954-6 over a full 16 game season, although Holmes has played a full season once in his three seasons. That works out to 131 fantasy points on average which in most years sneaks him into the Top 25. IMO, his actual value hasn't changed any, but I suppose there may be someone in some leagues that may fall in love with him and might take him in the Top 15 range.

So reasoning is that his value hadn't changed because of his stats over his first three years. Players do get better and the surrounding cast around them changes. Ben is improving, Holmes is improving, Ward is getting older, the offensive line will likely be improved next year. How does that not help Holmes' value?IMO, the flawed logic I'm seeing is, "because he hasn't been great therefore he won't be great." The result may well turn out to be accurate, but the logic is nonetheless flawed. I believe there are a lot of frustrated and disappointed Holmes owners posting here.

The logic is that one game does not a new career path make. That's been Holmes' production curve to date. Could it go up? Sure. Taking a 3-year sample size and averaging the numbers is a common practice conducted by many.All your arguments are based on what ifs, and there are negative what ifs out there for those that want to go there. What if Ben struggles to put up big TD numbers again. What if Holmes has injury or legal issues. What if Ward stays healthy. What if the Steelers go back to a pounding running game. Whati f the defense is even better next year and they pass less.

That's why the numbers are the numbers, as they say. We know where he is now and where he's been. We also know the situation he's in, the environment he's plaing in (bad weather the end of each year), and the style of coaching/offensive scheme he's in. Those are not likely to change any time soon, so I would be hard pressed to take an ultra high side approach to where he will rank given that at this point he's still a WR2 on his team.

I'm not saying he can't or won't do better, but I would not draft him in the semeingly upside only spot that he is getting discussed at in terms of draft position for next year . . . at least the day after the SB.

As much as may here want to apply statistics and numbers to make predicting future football performances straightforward, the truth is that there are so many unpredictable ineligibles involved that we must look at the information outside of the numbers to try as best we can to predict which players are going to break out. After all, the game here is not look at stats and see who has been doing well, that's the easy past. The challenge is finding the players who are about to break out, and the past performance numbers don't always show that.So now that it looks like Holmes is getting better (as many including staff predicted), Ben is getting better (as many including staff predicted), and Holmes looks poised to take over the WR1 position (as many including staff predicted) and now we should discount these intangible observations because he hasn't done it before?

So that all the statistic aficionados understand what I'm saying: year (N+1) performance does not necessary equal year N performance.



Edit to add: To clarify, I'm not saying that Holmes value rising to due entirely to his Superbowl performance. I'm just saying it's a highlight to look at for trying to predict increasing future success.

He's "getting better"....based on one game performance? Because his 2008 season was not as good as his 2007 season. He regressed.

I give up.No matter how many times I say that I am not basing the thought that Holmes is improving and is not necessarily a "sell high" based on one game people seem to focus on the one game.

I believe he is a young improving player.

I believe that Ben is a young improving player.

I believe that Ward is an older player on the decline.

I believe that the offensive line will get better.

Holmes may never play as well as he did in the Superbowl again but Jesus people, get your head out of the stats for a second and take a look at the big picture.

Maybe it's a gut feeling, but it isn't a gut feeling out of nowhere. There is good reason to believe that good things are to come from Holmes (although I also realize that there are good reasons beyond the stats to be skeptical.) Feel free to refute that thought with the stats that he didn't put up consistent numbers this past year.

Hi Avery,Perhaps you'd like to explain the entire reason for our argument yesterday then.

Back to the topic, I don't understand how Holmes stepping up with a huge game in the Superbowl wouldn't and shouldn't raise his value, as some have suggested it shouldn't.

b

Good point. It may seem like backtracking or dissecting my posts but I both feel that:

1. An great performance in any game would increase his value and even more so in a Superbowl where the pressure, exposure and competition are high.

2. I additionally see his value as higher not only because of the one game but also because:

I believe he is a young improving player.

I believe that Ben is a young improving player.

I believe that Ward is an older player on the decline.

I believe that the offensive line will get better.

I don't see both 1 and 2 as mutually exclusive.

So, sure, I think his value is up because of the one game. But my entire argument for his value is larger than that one game alone.

Make sense?

 

[bentley]

Whatever you need to sleep at night. I agree with #2. All I was saying yesterday is that he could be a good "sell high" candidate because of people thinking only about #1.